2019 Portuguese legislative election

2019 Portuguese legislative election

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230 seats in the Assembly of the Republic 116 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	10,777,258 11.3% [1]
Turnout	5,237,484 (48.6%) 7.3 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader António Costa Rui Rio Catarina Martins Party PS PSD BE Leader since 28 September 2014 18 February 2018 30 November 2014 Leader's seat Lisbon Porto Porto Last election 86 seats, 32.3% 89 seats (PàF) [lower-alpha 1] 19 seats, 10.2% Seats won 108 79 19 Seat change 22 10 0 Popular vote 1,903,687 1,454,283 498,549 Percentage 36.3% 27.8% 9.5% Swing 4.0 pp N/A 0.7 pp   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Jerónimo de Sousa Assunção Cristas André Silva Party PCP CDS–PP PAN Alliance CDU Leader since 27 November 2004 13 March 2016 26 October 2014 Leader's seat Lisbon Lisbon [lower-alpha 2] Lisbon Last election 17 seats, 8.3% [lower-alpha 3] 18 seats (PàF) [lower-alpha 1] 1 seats, 1.4% Seats won 12 5 4 Seat change 5 13 3 Popular vote 332,018 221,094 173,931 Percentage 6.3% 4.2% 3.3% Swing 1.9 pp N/A 1.9 pp   Seventh party Eighth party Ninth party   Leader André Ventura Carlos Guimarães Pinto Collective leadership [lower-alpha 4] Party CH IL LIVRE Leader since 9 April 2019 13 October 2018 11 August 2019 Leader's seat Lisbon Porto (Lost) - Last election Did not contest Did not contest 0 seats, 0.7% Seats won 1 1 1 Seat change 1 1 1 Popular vote 67,502 67,443 56,940 Percentage 1.3% 1.3% 1.1% Swing New party New party 0.4 pp
Vote winner strength by district Results by constituency
Prime Minister before election António Costa PS Prime Minister after election António Costa PS

The 2019 Portuguese legislative election was held on 6 October 2019. ^[2] All 230 seats to the Assembly of the Republic were contested.

In a campaign dominated by the Tancos airbase robbery ^[3] (in which former Defense Minister Azeredo Lopes (2015–2018) was accused of trying to cover-up the finding of the stolen weapons in the robbery), but also with the good economic situation in Portugal, the Socialist Party (PS) won the elections with 36 percent of the votes and 108 seats, a gain of 22 compared with 2015. The PS won the big districts of Porto and Lisbon, although Porto was closer than expected, and was able to gain districts from the PSD, like Aveiro and Viana do Castelo, by razor thin margins. ^[4] The PS won the city of Lisbon, however with a smaller share of the vote compared with 2015, 33 vs 35 percent, and, surprisingly lost the city of Porto to the PSD.

The Social Democratic Party (PSD) obtained 28 percent of the votes and won 79 seats. The party lost 10 seats compared with 2015, and, in terms of share of vote, it was the worst result since 1983, however in terms of seats, it was only the worst result since 2005, when the party won 75 seats. The PSD was able to hold on to their bastions of Viseu, Vila Real, Bragança, Leiria and Madeira. On election night, PSD leader Rui Rio classified the results as "not a disaster" and left the door open to continue as party leader. ^[5] However, in the aftermath of the election, several members of the party announced their intention to challenge Rio's leadership. ^[6]

The Left Bloc (BE) achieved a similar result to 2015. The party won almost 10 percent of the votes and held the 19 seats elected in 2015. On election night, Catarina Martins said she was open to new negotiations with PS. The Unitary Democratic Coalition, (CDU), PCP-PEV coalition, suffered heavy losses, with 6.3 percent of the votes and 12 seats, and Jerónimo de Sousa, PCP secretary-general, said on election night that written agreements with PS were off the table. CDS – People's Party got just 4.2 percent of the votes, and got a parliamentary caucus reduced to just 5 seats, the lowest since 1991 and when the party was called the "taxi party", down from 18 in the 2015 election. Assunção Cristas, CDS leader, resigned on election night, called for a snap party congress and announced she would not run for reelection. ^[7] People-Animals-Nature (PAN) saw a big increase in its share of the vote, winning 3.3% and 4 seats from Lisbon, Porto and Setúbal.

This election was marked by the entry of three new parties in Parliament. The right-wing/far-right party CHEGA (CH) was one of the big surprises on election night by electing an MP from Lisbon. It was the first time since the return to democracy that a right-wing/far-right party gained representation in Parliament. ^{[8] [9]} LIVRE and Liberal Initiative also elected one MP for Lisbon. Former Prime Minister and PSD leader Pedro Santana Lopes' new party, Alliance, failed to win a single seat and polled below 1 percent of the votes.

The turnout in this election was the lowest ever in a general election in Portugal, with just 48.6 percent of registered voters casting a ballot. In Portugal alone, 54.5 percent of voters cast a ballot, a drop compared with the 57 percent in the 2015 election.

Background

2015 Government formation

See also: 2015 Portuguese legislative election § Aftermath

After the 2015 elections, President Aníbal Cavaco Silva asked incumbent Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho to form a minority government, as the Portugal Ahead coalition won the most votes and seats in the election. ^[10] Passos Coelho second government was sworn in on 30 October 2015. ^[11] However, during this period, the Socialist Party, the Left Bloc and the Communist Party reached a historic agreement in order to bring down the Passos Coelho minority government and support a Socialist minority government led by António Costa. ^[12] Paulo Portas, CDS–PP leader, labeled the agreement as the Geringonça (English: Contraption), which became the name the left-wing agreement would be known for. ^[13]

On 10 November 2015, the left-wing parties proposed a vote of rejection to the Portugal Ahead's government program, which was approved by a 123 to 107 vote, thus bringing down the government. ^[14] On 26 November 2015, António Costa was sworn in as Prime Minister. ^[15] Costa's term was also marred by the 2017 deadly wildfires, in June and in October, plus the Tancos arms theft scandal, which would have an impact during the 2019 election campaign. ^[3]

Leadership changes and challenges

CDS – People's Party

Following the collapse of the PàF minority government and the subsequent nomination of António Costa as Prime Minister, with the support of the leftwing parties, CDS–PP leader Paulo Portas announced, in December 2015, he was leaving the party's leadership. ^[16] A new party congress was called to elect a new leader. There were two candidates in the ballot: Assunção Cristas, supported by Portas, and Miguel Mattos Chaves, critical of Portas leadership. ^[17] Cristas was elected by a landslide and the results were the following:

Ballot: 13 March 2016

Candidate		Votes	%
	Assunção Cristas	877	98.8
	Miguel Mattos Chaves	11	1.2
Turnout		888
Source: Results

Social Democratic Party

Main article: 2018 Portuguese Social Democratic Party leadership election

After a disappointing result in the 2017 local elections, in which the PSD won just 30 percent of the votes and 98 mayoral races against the 38 percent of the PS and its 160 elected mayors, Pedro Passos Coelho announced he would not run for a 5th term as PSD leader. ^[18] After that, Rui Rio, former mayor of Porto (2002-2013), announced he was running for the leadership. ^[19] Shortly after, Pedro Santana Lopes, former mayor of Lisbon (2002-2004; 2005) and Prime Minister (2004-2005), announced he was also running for the leadership of the party. ^[20] Election day was scheduled to January 13, 2018. After a long campaign, Rui Rio was elected with 54.15 percent of the votes, against the 45.85 percent of Santana Lopes. Turnout was 60.3 percent. ^[21] The results were the following:

Ballot: 13 January 2018

Candidate		Votes	%
	Rui Rio	22,728	54.2
	Pedro Santana Lopes	19,244	45.8
Blank/Invalid ballots		683	–
Turnout		42,655	60.34
Source: Official results

Rui Rio was officially confirmed as party leader in the PSD congress, in Lisbon, between 16 and 18 February 2018. Just seven months after this leadership election, in early July 2018, Pedro Santana Lopes announced he was leaving the Social Democratic Party and would form his own party. ^[22] A few weeks later he announced the creation of a new party, the Alliance. ^[23]

Date

Official logo of the election.

Ballot paper for the Portuguese legislative election 2019 for the electoral circle of European emigrants.

According to the Portuguese Constitution, an election must be called between 14 September and 14 October of the year that the legislature ends. The election is called by the President of Portugal but is not called at the request of the Prime Minister; however, the President must listen to all of the parties represented in Parliament and the election day must be announced at least 60 days before the election. ^[24] If an election is called during an ongoing legislature (dissolution of parliament) it must be held at least in 55 days. Election day is the same in all multi-seats constituencies, and should fall on a Sunday or national holiday. The next legislative election must, therefore, take place no later than 13 October 2019. ^[25] After meeting with all parties, in December 2018, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa announced that he would call a general election for 6 October 2019.

Electoral system

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved. ^[26]

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude. ^[27] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties. ^[28]

For these elections, and compared with the 2015 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following: ^[29]

District	Number of MPs	Map
Lisbon (+1)	48
Porto (+1)	40
Braga	19
Setúbal	18
Aveiro	16
Leiria	10
Coimbra, Faro and Santarém	9
Viseu (–1)	8
Madeira and Viana do Castelo	6
Azores and Vila Real	5
Castelo Branco	4
Beja, Bragança, Évora and Guarda (–1)	3
Portalegre, Europe and Outside Europe	2

Early voting

Voters were also able to vote early, which would happen one week before election day, on 29 September 2019. Voters had to register in order to be eligible to cast an early ballot. Between 22 and 26 September, 56,287 voters requested to vote early. ^[30] On 29 September, 50,638 voters (90.0 percent of voters that requested) cast an early ballot. ^[31]

Parties

Parliamentary factions

The table below lists the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 13th legislature (2015–2019) and that also contested the elections:

Name			Ideology	Political position	Leader	2015 result		Seats at dissolution
						%	Seats
	PPD/PSD	Social Democratic Party Partido Social Democrata	Liberal conservatism Classical liberalism	Centre [32] to centre-right	Rui Rio	38.6% [lower-alpha 1]	89 / 230	89 / 230
	CDS-PP	CDS – People's Party Centro Democrático e Social – Partido Popular	Christian democracy Conservatism	Centre-right to right-wing	Assunção Cristas		18 / 230	18 / 230
	PS	Socialist Party Partido Socialista	Social democracy	Centre-left	António Costa	32.3%	86 / 230	85 / 230
	BE	Left Bloc Bloco de Esquerda	Democratic socialism Anti-capitalism	Left-wing	Catarina Martins	10.2%	19 / 230	19 / 230
	PCP	Portuguese Communist Party Partido Comunista Português	Communism Marxism–Leninism	Far-left	Jerónimo de Sousa	8.3% [lower-alpha 3]	15 / 230	15 / 230
	PEV	Ecologist Party "The Greens" Partido Ecologista "Os Verdes"	Eco-socialism Green politics	Left-wing	Heloísa Apolónia		2 / 230	2 / 230
	PAN	People-Animals-Nature Pessoas-Animais-Natureza	Animal welfare Environmentalism	Centre-left	André Silva	1.4%	1 / 230	1 / 230
	Ind.	Independent Independente	Paulo Trigo Pereira (Left the PS caucus.) [33]		N/A			1 / 230

Non represented parties

The table below lists smaller parties not represented in the Assembly of the Republic that ran in the elections:

Name			Ideology	Political position	Leader	2015 result
						%
	PDR	Democratic Republican Party Partido Democrático Republicano	Social liberalism Populism	Centre	António Marinho e Pinto	1.1%
	PCTP/MRPP	Portuguese Workers' Communist Party Partido Comunista dos Trabalhadores Portugueses	Marxism-Leninism Maoism	Far-left	Vacant	1.1%
	L	LIVRE LIVRE	Eco-socialism Pro-Europeanism	Centre-left to left-wing	Collective leadership	0.7%
	PNR	National Renovator Party Partido Nacional Renovador	National conservatism Anti-immigration	Far-right	José Pinto Coelho	0.5%
	MPT	Earth Party Partido da Terra	Green conservatism	Centre-right	Manuel Ramos	0.4%
	NC	We, the Citizens! Nós, Cidadãos!	Social liberalism Pro-Europeanism	Centre-right	Mendo Castro Henriques	0.4%
	PTP	Portuguese Labour Party Partido Trabalhista Português	Democratic socialism Social democracy	Centre-left to left-wing	Amândio Madaleno	0.4% [lower-alpha 5]
	MAS	Socialist Alternative Movement Movimento Alternativa Socialista	Socialism Trotskyism	Left-wing	Gil Garcia
	PPM	People's Monarchist Party Partido Popular Monárquico	Monarchism Conservatism	Right-wing	Gonçalo da Câmara Pereira	0.3%
	JPP	Together for the People Juntos Pelo Povo	Regionalism Social liberalism	Centre	Élvio Sousa	0.3%
	PURP	United Party of Retirees and Pensioners Partido Unido dos Reformados e Pensionistas	Pensioners' rights Anti-austerity	Big tent	António Mateus Dias Fernando Loureiro	0.3%
	CH	CHEGA Chega!	Economic liberalism Right-wing populism	Right-wing to far-right	André Ventura	—
	IL	Liberal Initiative Iniciativa Liberal	Liberalism	Centre to Centre-right	Carlos Guimarães Pinto	—
	A	Alliance Aliança	Conservative liberalism Social conservatism	Centre-right to right-wing	Pedro Santana Lopes	—
	RIR	React, Include, Recycle Reagir, Incluir, Reciclar,	Humanism Pacifism	Syncretic	Vitorino Silva (Tino de Rans)	—

Campaign period

Party slogans

Party or alliance		Original slogan	English translation	Refs
	PSD	« Portugal Precisa »	"Portugal Needs"	[34]
	PS	« Portugal Melhor »	"Better Portugal"	[35]
	BE	« Faz Acontecer »	"Make it happen"	[36]
	CDS–PP	« Faz sentido »	"Makes sense"	[37]
	CDU	« Avançar é Preciso »	"Moving forward is necessary"	[38]
	PAN	« Ainda vamos a tempo! »	"We are still on time!"	[39]
	L	« Livre é igualdade »	"Free is equality"	[40]
	IL	« Liberta-te do Socialismo »	"Free yourself from Socialism"	[41]
	CH	« A força da mudança »	"The force of change"	[42]

Candidates' debates

With parties represented in Parliament

2019 Portuguese legislative election debates
Date	Organisers	Moderator(s)	P Present   A Absent invitee N Non-invitee
			PS Costa	PSD Rio	BE Martins	CDU Jerónimo	CDS–PP Cristas	PAN Silva	Refs
2 Sep	SIC	Clara de Sousa	P	N	N	P	N	N	[43]
3 Sep	RTP3	António José Teixeira	N	N	P	N	P	N	[43]
5 Sep	SIC	Clara de Sousa	N	P	N	N	P	N	[43]
6 Sep	RTP1	António José Teixeira	P	N	P	N	N	N	[43]
7 Sep	SIC Notícias	Clara de Sousa	N	N	P	N	N	P	[43]
9 Sep	RTP1	António José Teixeira	N	P	N	N	N	P	[43]
11 Sep	SIC	Clara de Sousa	P	N	N	N	N	P	[43]
12 Sep	RTP1	António José Teixeira	N	P	N	P	N	N	[43]
13 Sep	TVI	Pedro Pinto	P	N	N	N	P	N	[43]
14 Sep	RTP3	António José Teixeira	N	N	N	N	P	P	[43]
15 Sep	TVI	Pedro Pinto	N	P	P	N	N	N	[43]
16 Sep	RTP1, SIC, TVI	Clara de Sousa Maria Flor Pedroso José Alberto Carvalho	P	P	N	N	N	N	[43]
18 Sep	Antena 1, RR, TSF	Natália Carvalho Eunice Lourenço Anselmo Crespo	P	P	P	P	P	P	[43]
23 Sep	Antena 1, RR, TSF	Natália Carvalho Eunice Lourenço Anselmo Crespo	P	P	N	N	N	N	[43]
23 Sep	RTP1	Maria Flor Pedroso	P	P	P	P	P	P	[43]
Candidate viewed as "most convincing" in each debate
Date	Organisers	Polling firm/Link
			PS	PSD	BE	CDU	CDS–PP	PAN	Notes
23 Sep	Antena 1, RR, TSF	Aximage	37.9	38.7	—	—	—	—	21.4% Both/Neither
23 Sep	RTP1	Aximage	30.9	31.2	18.9	1.5	7.1	2.9	7.5% No one

With parties not represented in Parliament

A debate between parties not represented in Parliament was also broadcast on RTP1 and RTP3.

2019 Portuguese legislative election debates
Date	Organisers	Moderator(s)	P Present   A Absent invitee N Non-invitee  S Surrogate
			PDR Pinto	PCTP Guerreiro	L Moreira	PNR Coelho	MPT Ramos	PTP Madaleno	NC Henriques	PPM Pereira	JPP Sousa	PURP Loureiro	A Santana	RIR Rans	MAS Garcia	IL Pinto	CH Ventura	Refs
30 Sep	RTP1 RTP3	Maria Flor Pedroso	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	P	[44]

Opinion polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2019 Portuguese legislative election

Local Regression of polls conducted since the election

Voter turnout

The table below shows voter turnout throughout election day including voters from Overseas.

Turnout	Time
	12:00			16:00			19:00
	2015	2019	±	2015	2019	±	2015	2019	±
Total	20.65%	18.83%	1.82 pp	44.38%	38.59%	5.79 pp	55.84%	48.60%	7.24 pp
Sources [45] [46]

Results

The centre-left Socialist Party (PS) of incumbent Prime Minister Costa obtained the largest share of the vote, and the most seats. Costa said he would look to continue the confidence-and-supply agreement with the Left Bloc and the Unitary Democratic Coalition. The centre-right Social Democratic Party (PSD) got 27.8 percent of the vote, its worst result since 1983. Portugal's much-vaunted immunity to Europe's far-right wave was interrupted by the election of a debut representative from the nationalist CHEGA party, which scored 1.3 percent overall, with the party's leader stating “this is an historic occasion, it will be the first time in 45 years that a party with these characteristics enters the assembly.” ^[47]

National summary

For detailed results by constituency, see Results breakdown of the 2019 Portuguese legislative election.

Summary of the 6 October 2019 Assembly of the Republic elections results

Parties		Votes	%	±pp swing	MPs					MPs %/ votes %
					2015	2019	±	%	±
	Socialist	1,903,687	36.35	4.0	86	108	22	46.96	9.6	1.29
	Social Democratic	1,454,283	27.77	[lower-alpha 1]	89	79	10	34.35	4.3	1.24
	Left Bloc	498,549	9.52	0.7	19	19	0	8.26	0.0	0.87
	Unitary Democratic Coalition	332,018	6.34	1.9	17	12	5	5.22	2.2	0.82
	People's	221,094	4.22	[lower-alpha 1]	18	5	13	2.17	5.6	0.51
	People-Animals-Nature	173,931	3.32	1.9	1	4	3	1.74	1.3	0.52
	CHEGA	67,502	1.29	—	—	1	—	0.43	—	0.33
	Liberal Initiative	67,443	1.29	—	—	1	—	0.43	—	0.33
	LIVRE	56,940	1.09	0.4	0	1	1	0.43	0.4	0.39
	Alliance	40,175	0.77	—	—	0	—	0.00	—	0.0
	Portuguese Workers' Communist	36,006	0.69	0.4	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	React, Include, Recycle	35,169	0.67	—	—	0	—	0.00	—	0.0
	National Renovator	16,992	0.32	0.2	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	Earth	12,888	0.25	0.2	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	We, the Citizens!	12,346	0.24	0.2	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	Democratic Republican	11,674	0.22	0.9	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	United Party of Retirees and Pensioners	11,457	0.22	0.1	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	Together for the People	10,552	0.20	0.1	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	People's Monarchist	8,389	0.16	0.1	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	Labour	8,271	0.16	[lower-alpha 5]	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	Socialist Alternative Movement	3,243	0.06	[lower-alpha 5]	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
Total valid		4,982,609	95.14	1.1	230	230	0	100.00	0	—
Blank ballots		131,302	2.51	0.4
Invalid ballots		123,573	2.36	0.7
Total		5,237,484	100.00
Registered voters/turnout		10,777,258	48.60	7.3
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Vote share PS   36.35% PSD   27.77% BE   9.52% CDU   6.34% CDS-PP   4.22% PAN   3.32% CH   1.29% IL   1.29% L   1.09% Alliance   0.77% PCTP/MRPP   0.69% RIR   0.67% Others   1.83% Blank/Invalid   4.87%

Parliamentary seats PS   46.96% PSD   34.35% BE   8.26% CDU   5.22% CDS-PP   2.17% PAN   1.74% CH   0.43% IL   0.43% L   0.43%

Distribution by constituency

Results of the 2019 election of the Portuguese Assembly of the Republic
by constituency

Constituency	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	Total S
	PS		PSD		BE		CDU		CDS–PP		PAN		CH		IL		L
Azores	40.1	3	30.2	2	8.0	-	2.5	-	4.8	-	2.7	-	0.9	-	0.7	-	0.9	-	5
Aveiro	34.3	7	33.6	6	10.0	2	3.1	-	5.7	1	3.0	-	0.7	-	1.0	-	0.7	-	16
Beja	40.7	2	13.3	-	9.1	-	22.8	1	2.3	-	2.0	-	2.0	-	0.4	-	0.6	-	3
Braga	36.4	8	34.1	8	8.9	2	4.0	-	4.1	1	2.6	-	0.7	-	0.8	-	0.7	-	19
Bragança	36.5	1	40.8	2	6.0	-	2.1	-	4.5	-	1.3	-	0.8	-	0.4	-	0.3	-	3
Castelo Branco	40.9	3	26.3	1	11.1	-	4.8	-	3.7	-	2.4	-	1.3	-	0.6	-	0.9	-	4
Coimbra	39.0	5	26.6	3	11.2	1	5.6	-	3.5	-	2.6	-	0.9	-	0.8	-	0.9	-	9
Évora	38.3	2	17.5	-	9.0	-	18.9	1	3.4	-	2.0	-	2.2	-	0.7	-	0.7	-	3
Faro	36.8	5	22.3	3	12.3	1	7.1	-	3.8	-	4.8	-	2.1	-	0.8	-	1.0	-	9
Guarda	37.6	2	34.3	1	7.8	-	3.0	-	5.0	-	1.6	-	1.5	-	0.6	-	0.5	-	3
Leiria	31.1	4	33.5	5	9.4	1	4.3	-	5.3	-	2.9	-	1.5	-	0.9	-	0.9	-	10
Lisbon	36.7	20	22.6	12	9.7	5	7.8	4	4.4	2	4.4	2	2.0	1	2.5	1	2.1	1	48
Madeira	33.4	3	37.1	3	5.2	-	2.1	-	6.1	-	1.8	-	0.7	-	0.7	-	0.4	-	6
Portalegre	44.7	2	20.1	-	8.1	-	10.6	-	3.8	-	1.7	-	2.7	-	0.5	-	0.6	-	2
Porto	36.7	17	31.2	15	10.1	4	4.8	2	3.3	1	3.5	1	0.6	-	1.5	-	1.0	-	40
Santarém	37.1	4	25.2	3	10.2	1	7.6	1	4.7	-	2.6	-	2.0	-	0.8	-	0.9	-	9
Setúbal	38.6	9	14.4	3	12.1	2	15.8	3	3.0	-	4.4	1	1.9	-	1.1	-	1.2	-	18
Viana do Castelo	34.8	3	33.8	3	8.5	-	4.0	-	6.2	-	2.4	-	0.7	-	0.6	-	0.6	-	6
Vila Real	37.2	2	39.0	3	6.1	-	2.5	-	4.5	-	1.7	-	0.8	-	0.4	-	0.6	-	5
Viseu	35.4	4	36.2	4	7.9	-	2.3	-	5.9	-	2.1	-	1.0	-	0.6	-	0.5	-	8
Europe	29.1	1	18.8	1	5.7	-	2.5	-	3.0	-	4.9	-	0.9	-	0.8	-	1.1	-	2
Outside Europe	20.2	1	33.4	1	3.5	-	1.0	-	4.7	-	4.3	-	0.9	-	2.5	-	0.7	-	2
Total	36.3	108	27.8	79	9.5	19	6.3	12	4.2	5	3.3	4	1.3	1	1.3	1	1.1	1	230
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Maps

• 
  Full results by electoral district.
• 
  Strongest party by electoral district.
• 
  Strongest party by municipality.
• 
  Vote strength for left-wing parties (BE, CDU, LIVRE) by electoral district.
• 
  Strongest political faction by electoral district. Left: PS, BE, CDU; Right: PSD, CDS-PP.

Electorate

Demographic		Size	PS	PSD	BE	CDU	CDS–PP	PAN	Others
Total vote		100%	36%	28%	10%	6%	4%	3%	13%
Sex
Men			37%	28%	9%	7%	4%	2%	13%
Women			41%	24%	11%	5%	4%	4%	11%
Age
18–24 years old		10%	25%	30%	13%	3%	4%	9%	18%
25–44 years old		31%	32%	23%	14%	6%	3%	4%	19%
45–64 years old		38%	42%	27%	10%	6%	5%	2%	9%
65 and older		22%	51%	28%	4%	6%	3%	1%	7%
Education
No High-school			52%	23%	7%	7%	3%	1%	9%
High-school			32%	25%	13%	6%	4%	6%	15%
College graduate			31%	30%	12%	5%	6%	3%	13%
Vote decision
In the last week or before		19%	25%	26%	13%	4%	4%	3%	25%
Before that		81%	42%	26%	9%	6%	4%	3%	9%
Direction of the country
Right direction		67%	53%	19%	11%	6%	3%	3%	7%
Wrong direction		33%	11%	42%	9%	7%	6%	3%	23%
Source: GfK Metris exit poll

Aftermath

Budget rejection and fall of the government

MPs voting on the 2022 State Budget on 27 October 2021.

After the October 2019 elections, the PS decided to not renew the "Geringonça" (Contraption) deal with the Left Bloc and the Communist Party and opted to govern by making deals with both left and/or right parties in the opposition. ^[48] After this, budgets and other policies were discussed with all opposition parties, but political instability grew, even during the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. ^[49] In October 2021, BE and PCP announced that they would vote against the government's proposed 2022 budget ^[50] and President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa warned that if there was no budget, he would dissolve Parliament and call a snap election. ^[51] On 27 October 2021, Parliament rejected the budget by a 117 to 108 vote, and a snap general election was called for 30 January 2022. ^[52]

2022 State Budget António Costa (PS)
Ballot →		27 October 2021
Required majority →		Simple N
	Yes • PS (108)	108 / 230
	No • PSD (79) • BE (19) • PCP (10) • CDS–PP (5) • PEV (2) • CH (1) • IL (1)	117 / 230
	Abstentions • PAN (3) • Ind. Joacine Katar Moreira (1) • Ind. Cristina Rodrigues (1)	5 / 230
	Absentees	0 / 230
Sources [53]

See also

• Elections in Portugal
• List of political parties in Portugal
• Politics of Portugal

Notes

1. The Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the People's Party (CDS–PP) contested the 2015 election in a coalition called Portugal Ahead (PàF) and won a combined 38.6% of the vote and elected 107 MPs to parliament.
2. In the 2015 election, Assunção Cristas was elected in the district of Leiria.
3. The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) contested the 2015 election in a coalition called Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) and won a combined 8.3% of the vote and elected 17 MPs to parliament.
4. Here pictured, the party's main candidate in this campaign, Joacine Katar Moreira, running for Lisbon.
5. The Socialist Alternative Movement (MAS) and the Portuguese Labour Party (PTP) contested the 2015 election in a coalition called AGIR! (Act!) and won a combined 0.4% of the vote.

References

1. "Mapa Oficial n.º 8/2019", Comissão Nacional de Eleições, 12 August 2019. Retrieved 31 August 2019.
2. "Marcelo anuncia eleições legislativas em 6 de outubro", Sapo 24, 7 December 2018. Retrieved 7 December 2018.
3. "Há um antes e um depois da acusação de Tancos na campanha ", Público , 26 September 2019. Retrieved 5 April 2020.
4. "Um mapa cor-de-rosa com sete maiorias absolutas", Público , 7 October 2019. Retrieved 9 October 2019.
5. "Rui Rio: “Não há desastre nenhum”", Rádio e Televisão de Portugal , 7 October 2019. Retrieved 9 October 2019.
6. "Luís Montenegro: "Sou candidato às próximas eleições diretas"". Diário de Notícias (in Portuguese). 9 October 2019.
7. "CDS volta a meter-se num táxi e Assunção Cristas sai de cena", Público , 7 October 2019. Retrieved 9 October 2019.
8. Fernandes, Jorge M.; Magalhães, Pedro C. (2020-01-08). "The 2019 Portuguese general elections". West European Politics. 43 (4): 1038–1050. doi:10.1080/01402382.2019.1702301. ISSN   0140-2382. S2CID   213943550.
9. "Entrada de extrema-direita no Parlamento “deve alarmar partidos”", Público , 8 October 2019. Retrieved 9 October 2019.
10. "Cavaco Silva convida Passos a formar Governo: a comunicação de Cavaco na íntegra". RTP (in Portuguese). Lisbon. 6 October 2015. Retrieved 21 October 2022.
11. "Tomada de posse: Cavaco modera o tom. Passos quer governar". Diário de Notícias (in Portuguese). Lisbon. 30 October 2015. Retrieved 21 October 2022.
12. "O que já chamaram ao acordo: da geringonça ao caterpillar". Diário de Notícias (in Portuguese). Lisbon. 12 November 2015. Retrieved 21 October 2022.
13. "Portas diz que governo de António Costa será uma geringonça". Rádio Renascença (in Portuguese). Lisbon. 10 November 2015. Retrieved 21 October 2022.
14. Angelique Chrisafis (10 November 2015). "Portuguese MPs force minority government to quit over austerity". The Guardian . Retrieved 4 December 2015.
15. "Às 16h02... António Costa tomou posse como primeiro-ministro". Expresso (in Portuguese). Lisbon. 26 November 2015. Retrieved 21 October 2022.
16. "Portas abandona liderança do CDS-PP", TSF, 28 December 2015. Retrieved 21 November 2021.
17. "Estratégia de Cristas recolhe 98,7% dos votos", Observador, 12 March 2015. Retrieved 21 November 2021.
18. "Passos Coelho não se recandidata à liderança do PSD". Expresso (in Portuguese). 2017.
19. "Rui Rio anuncia quarta-feira candidatura à liderança do PSD", RTP , 6 October 2017. Retrieved 20 January 2018.
20. "PSD. Santana Lopes apresenta candidatura à liderança este domingo", RTP , 17 October 2017. Retrieved 20 January 2018.
21. "Rui Rio é o novo presidente do PSD", Jornal de Negócios , 13 January 2018. Retrieved 20 January 2018.
22. "Santana Lopes deixa o PSD e prepara novo partido", Observador, 27 June 2018. Retrieved 28 July 2020.
23. "Aliança é o novo partido de Santana Lopes ", Público , 18 August 2018. Retrieved 28 July 2020.
24. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2014-10-22. Retrieved 2015-10-07.
25. Electoral law to the Assembly of the Republic
26. "Constitution of the Portuguese Republic" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-03-03. Retrieved 2019-12-29.
27. "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 2015-10-21.
28. Gallaher, Michael (1992). "Comparing Proportional Representation Electoral Systems: Quotas, Thresholds, Paradoxes and Majorities"
29. "Mapa Oficial n.º 8/2019" (PDF). CNE - Comissão Nacional de Eleições - Diário da República, 1.a série—N.o 154-12 de agosto de 2019. Retrieved 31 August 2019.
30. "Mais de 56 mil pessoas pediram para votar antecipadamente", Diário de Notícias , 27 September 2019. Retrieved 17 January 2021.
31. "Mais de 50 mil eleitores votaram antecipadamente para as legislativas ", Diário de Notícias , 1 October 2019. Retrieved 17 January 2021.
32. "Rui Rio: "Nós não somos de direita. Nós somos do centro, somos moderados"" [Rui Rio: "We aren't right-wing. We are on the center, we're moderate"]. PÚBLICO (in Portuguese). Retrieved 2019-09-03.
33. Paulo Trigo Pereira sai da bancada do PS com críticas ao “paternalismo” do Governo , Expresso, 7 December 2018. Retrieved 8 December 2018.
34. "PSD Legislativas 2019". PSD (in Portuguese). Retrieved 4 September 2019.
35. "PS Legislativas 2019". PS (in Portuguese). Retrieved 4 September 2019.
36. "BE Legislativas 2019". BE (in Portuguese). Retrieved 4 September 2019.
37. "CDS Legislativas 2019". CDS-PP (in Portuguese). Retrieved 4 September 2019.
38. "CDU Legislativas 2019". CDU (in Portuguese). Retrieved 4 September 2019.
39. "PAN apresenta Programa Eleitoral para Legislativas 2019". PAN (in Portuguese). 30 August 2019. Retrieved 4 September 2019.
40. "Livre Legislativas 2019". Livre (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
41. "Iniciativa Liberal Legislativas 2019". Iniciativa Liberal (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
42. "ELEIÇÕES LEGISLATIVAS DE 2019 – LEIRIA – CHEGA". EPHEMERA (in Portuguese). Retrieved 11 May 2020.
43. "Este é o calendário de debates para as legislativas". Eco (in Portuguese). 2 August 2019. Retrieved 3 August 2019.
44. "Perdeu o debate dos pequenos partidos? Resumo em oito pontos". Rádio Renascença (in Portuguese). 1 October 2019. Retrieved 22 October 2022.
45. "Legislativas 2019 - Afluência". eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/legislativas2019/index.html (in Portuguese). Ministry of Internal Administration . Retrieved 8 June 2023.
46. "Legislativas 2015 - Afluência". eleicoes.mai.gov.pt/legislativas2015/index.html (in Portuguese). Ministry of Internal Administration . Retrieved 8 June 2023.
47. "Socialists victorious in Portuguese election". 6 October 2019.
48. "Catarina Martins lamenta fim da "geringonça"" (in Portuguese). Público. 11 October 2019. Retrieved 8 October 2022.
49. ""Fim de linha" de "compromisso histórico". Geringonça em Portugal está desgastada, avisa Financial Times" (in Portuguese). Jornal Económico. 21 December 2020. Retrieved 8 October 2022.
50. "OE2022. PCP junta-se a BE e anuncia voto contra orçamento "tal como está"" (in Portuguese). Diário de Notícias. 12 October 2021. Retrieved 8 October 2022.
51. "Marcelo pressiona acordo e avisa que sem Orçamento não há duodécimos, mas eleições antecipadas" (in Portuguese). Observador. 13 October 2021. Retrieved 8 October 2022.
52. "Marcelo marca eleições para 30 de janeiro" (in Portuguese). Diário de Notícias. 4 November 2021. Retrieved 8 October 2022.
53. "Orçamento do Estado para 2022 chumbado pelo Parlamento na generalidade". RTP (in Portuguese). Lisbon. 28 October 2021. Retrieved 8 October 2022.

External links

• Popstar Poll Tracker
• Marktest Opinion Poll Tracker
• Official results site, Portuguese Justice Ministry
• Portuguese Electoral Commission
• ERC - Official publication of polls
• Average of polls and seat simulator