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The next legislative election in Portugal will take place on or before 8 October 2028 to elect members of the Assembly of the Republic to the 17th Legislature. All 230 seats to the Assembly of the Republic will be at stake.
Due to the instability of the minority government led by Luís Montenegro, the likelihood of a snap election well before the scheduled end of the current Parliament in 2028 is considered to be very high. [2]
The Democratic Alliance (AD), composed by Social Democratic Party (PSD), CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP) and the People's Monarchist Party (PPM), led by PSD leader Luís Montenegro, won by a very narrow margin the 2024 legislative election with almost 29 percent of the votes and 80 seats in the 230 seat Assembly of the Republic. The Socialist Party (PS), in power between 2015 and 2024 and led by Pedro Nuno Santos, in the aftermath of the resignation of then Prime Minister António Costa due to an investigation around alleged corruption involving the award of contracts for lithium and hydrogen businesses, [3] suffered a big decrease in support winning 28 percent of the votes and 78 seats. The populist/far-right party Chega (CH) surged in the elections, gathering 18 percent of the votes and 50 seats in Parliament, the best result for third party in decades and becoming kingmaker. [4] The Liberal Initiative (IL) was able to hold on to their eight seats and gather five percent of the votes. The left-wing/far-left parties, the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Left Bloc (BE), achieved, again, disappointing results with BE holding on to their five seats and four percent of the votes, while the Communists' alliance got their worst result ever with just three percent of the votes and four seats. LIVRE nearly surpassed PCP by gathering also three percent of the votes and four seats. People Animals Nature (PAN) was able to win just one seat. [5]
Eleven days after election day, on 21 March 2024, Luis Montenegro was asked by President of the Republic Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa to form a government, a minority one in this case. [6] The new government was sworn into office on 2 April 2024. [6]
The President of Portugal has the power to dissolve the Assembly of the Republic by his/her own will. Unlike in other countries, the President can refuse to dissolve the parliament at the request of the Prime Minister or the Assembly of the Republic and all the parties represented in Parliament. If the Prime Minister resigns, the President can appoint a new Prime Minister after listening to all the parties represented in Parliament and then the government programme must be subject to discussion by the Assembly of the Republic, whose members of parliament may present a motion to reject the upcoming government, or dissolve Parliament and call new elections.
According to the Portuguese Constitution, an election must be called between 14 September and 14 October of the year that the legislature ends. The election is called by the President of Portugal but is not called at the request of the Prime Minister; however, the President must listen to all of the parties represented in Parliament and the election day must be announced at least 60 days before the election. [7] If an election is called during an ongoing legislature (dissolution of parliament) it must be held at least after 55 days. Election day is the same in all multi-seats constituencies, and should fall on a Sunday or national holiday. The next legislative election must, therefore, take place no later than 8 October 2028. [8]
On 8 April 2024, former 2021 Presidential candidate Tiago Mayan Gonçalves, announced a manifesto called "United by liberalism" and said he will be a candidate for the party's leadership when a ballot arrives, thus challenging incumbent leader Rui Rocha. [9] On 20 June 2024, Mayan Gonçalves officially launched his bid for the party's leadership. [10]
The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved. [11]
The number of seats assigned to each constituency depends on the district magnitude. [12] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties. [13]
The distribution of MPs by constituency for the 2024 legislative election was the following: [14]
Constituency | Number of MPs | Map |
---|---|---|
Lisbon | 48 | |
Porto | 40 | |
Braga and Setúbal | 19 | |
Aveiro | 16 | |
Leiria | 10 | |
Coimbra, Faro and Santarém | 9 | |
Viseu | 8 | |
Madeira | 6 | |
Azores, Viana do Castelo and Vila Real | 5 | |
Castelo Branco | 4 | |
Beja, Bragança, Évora and Guarda | 3 | |
Portalegre, Europe and Outside Europe | 2 |
The table below lists parties currently represented in the Assembly of the Republic.
Polling aggregator | Last update | Lead | ||||||||
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Marktest | 17 Jul 2024 | 29.3 | 31.3 | 15.3 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
PolitPro | 14 Jul 2024 | 29.5 | 31.0 | 15.6 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
Politico | 13 Jul 2024 | 29 | 30 | 16 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
2024 legislative election | 10 March 2024 | 28.8 80 | 28.0 78 | 18.1 50 | 4.9 8 | 4.4 5 | 3.2 4 | 3.2 4 | 2.0 1 | 0.8 |
The Assembly of the Republic, commonly referred to as simply Parliament, is the unicameral parliament of Portugal. According to the Constitution of Portugal, the parliament "is the representative assembly of all Portuguese citizens". The constitution names the assembly as one of the country's organs of supreme authority.
Elections in Portugal are free, fair, and regularly held, in accordance with election law.
The 1999 Portuguese legislative election took place on 10 October. The election renewed all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic.
The 1987 Portuguese legislative election took place on 19 July. The election renewed all 250 members of the Assembly of the Republic.
Constituent Assembly elections were carried out in Portugal on 25 April 1975, exactly one year after the Carnation Revolution. The election elected all 250 members of the Portuguese Constituent Assembly.
Since 1974, the year of the Carnation Revolution, seventeen legislative elections were held in Portugal.
The 1976 Portuguese legislative election was held on Sunday 25 April, exactly one year after the previous election, and two years after the Carnation Revolution. With a new Constitution approved, the country's main aim was economic recovery and strengthening its democratic institutions. The election renewed all 263 members of the Assembly of the Republic.
The 1979 Portuguese legislative election took place on 2 December. The election renewed all 250 members of the Assembly of the Republic, 13 seats less than those elected in 1976.
The 1983 Portuguese legislative election took place on 25 April. The election renewed all 250 members of the Assembly of the Republic.
The 1980 Portuguese legislative election took place on 5 October. The election renewed all 250 members of the Assembly of the Republic.
The 2009 Portuguese legislative election was held on 27 September, to renew all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic. The Socialist Party, led by incumbent Prime Minister José Sócrates, won the largest number of seats, but didn't repeat the overall majority they gained in 2005.
The Azores Regional Election (1996) was an election held on 13 October 1996 for the legislative assembly and government of the Portuguese autonomous region of the Azores.
The Azores Regional Election, 2000 was an election held on 15 October 2000 for the legislative assembly and government of the Portuguese autonomous region of the Azores, in which the Socialist Party, under the leadership of Carlos César received 49 percent of the votes, and got an absolute majority, in comparison to their direct rivals, the Social Democratic Party with 32 percent. Voter turnout was the lowest til then with just 53.3 percent of the electorate casting their ballot on election day.
The 2008 Azorean regional election was an election held on 19 October 2008 for the legislative assembly and government of the Portuguese autonomous region of the Azores. in which the Socialist Party, under the leadership of Carlos César won a third mandate with 46.7 percent of the turnout, while their rivals, under the Social Democratic Party leader Carlos Costa Neves, received 30.27 percent of the vote: this result would lead to Neves' resignation in the following days.
The 2019 Portuguese legislative election was held on 6 October 2019. All 230 seats to the Assembly of the Republic were contested.
The 2020 Azorean regional election was held on 25 October 2020, to determine the composition of the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of the Azores. All 57 members of the assembly were up for election.
Early legislative elections were held on 30 January 2022 in Portugal to elect members of the Assembly of the Republic to the 15th Legislature of the Third Portuguese Republic. All 230 seats to the Assembly of the Republic were up for election.
The 2024 Azorean regional election was held on 4 February 2024, to determine the composition of the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of the Azores. The election replaced all 57 members of the Azores Assembly, and the new members would then elect the President of the Autonomous Region.
Regional elections were held in Madeira on 24 September 2023, to determine the composition of the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of Madeira. The election replaced all 47 members of the Madeira Assembly, and the new members will then elect the President of the Autonomous Region.
Snap legislative elections were held on 10 March 2024 to elect members of the Assembly of the Republic to the 16th Legislature of Portugal. All 230 seats to the Assembly of the Republic were up for election. The elections were called in November 2023 after Prime Minister António Costa's resignation following an investigation around alleged corruption involving the award of contracts for lithium and hydrogen businesses.