Opinion polling for the 2026 Victorian state election

In the lead-up to the 2026 Victorian state election, a number of polling companies have conducted opinion polls. These polls collect data on parties' primary vote, leaders' favourability, and individual electoral district results.

Voting intention

Legislative Assembly

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote					2PP vote
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
18 Nov 2025	Jess Wilson becomes Liberal leader and leader of the opposition
14 – 17 Nov 2025	Freshwater [1]	1,217	30%	37%	—	—	—	49%	51%
21 – 27 Oct 2025	DemosAU [2] [3]	1,016	26%	37%	15%	—	22%	49%	51%
8 – 14 Oct 2025	Redbridge [4]	1,501	32%	37%	13%	—	18%	52%	48%
12 Oct 2025	Resolve [5]	1,000	30%	33%	12%	10%	15%	—	—
3 – 11 Sep 2025	Redbridge [6]	2,005	32%	37%	13%	—	18%	52%	48%
2 – 9 Sep 2025	DemosAU [7] [8]	1,327	26%	38%	15%	—	21%	49%	51%
17 Aug 2025	Resolve [9]	1,000	32%	33%	12%	9%	13%	—	—
23 – 30 Jun 2025	Newspoll [10]	1,000	35%	35%	12%	—	18%	53%	47%
19 – 30 Jun 2025	Redbridge [11]	1,183	33%	38%	14%	—	15%	51.5%	48.5%
24 Mar – 2 Apr 2025	Redbridge [12] [13]	2,013	29%	41%	13%	—	17%	49%	51%
30 Mar 2025	Resolve [14]	1,000	24%	41%	14%	14%	7%	—	—
17 – 21 Mar 2025	DemosAU [15]	1,006	25%	39%	15%	—	21%	48%	52%
Dec 2024 – Jan 2025	Resolve [16]	1,124	22%	42%	13%	17%	6%	—	—
27 Dec 2024	Brad Battin becomes Liberal leader and leader of the opposition
6 – 20 Nov 2024	Redbridge [17] [18]	920	30%	43%	14%	—	13%	49%	51%
10 Nov 2024	Resolve [19]	1,000	28%	38%	13%	14%	7%	—	—
26 Sep – 3 Oct 2024	Redbridge [20] [21]	1,516	30%	40%	12%	—	18%	49%	51%
18 Sep 2024	Redbridge [22]	1,500	30%	40%	12%	—	17%	50%	50%
7 Sep 2024	Resolve [23]	1,054	27%	37%	14%	15%	7%	—	—
6 – 29 Aug 2024	Wolf & Smith [24] [25]	2,024	28%	40%	14%	15%	3%	48%	52%
5 Aug 2024	Redbridge [26]	1,514	31%	40%	12%	—	17%	50%	50%
14 Jul 2024	Resolve [27]	1,000	27%	37%	15%	15%	6%	—	—
7 Jun 2024	Redbridge [28]	1,000	35%	38%	14%	—	13%	55%	45%
19 May 2024	Resolve [29]	1,000	28%	37%	13%	16%	6%	—	—
24 Mar 2024	Resolve [30]	1,100	33%	35%	13%	12%	7%	54.6%	45.4%
14 – 20 Mar 2024	Redbridge [31]	1,559	36%	38%	10%	—	16%	54%	46%
2 – 12 Dec 2023	Redbridge [32] [33]	2,000	37%	36%	13%	—	14%	55.9%	44.1%
3 Dec 2023	Resolve [34]	1,100	37%	31%	11%	14%	6%	—	—
Sep – Oct 2023	Resolve [35]	1,100	39%	32%	12%	10%	7%	—	—
27 Sep 2023	Jacinta Allan becomes Labor leader and premier
31 Aug – 14 Sep 2023	Redbridge [36]	3,001	37%	34%	13%	—	16%	56.5%	43.5%
Jul – Aug 2023	Resolve [37]	1,100	39%	28%	13%	13%	7%	—	—
19 – 20 Jul 2023	Roy Morgan [38]	1,046	33%	35.5%	12.5%	10.5%	8.5% [a]	53%	47%
May – Jun 2023	Resolve [39]	1,003	41%	26% [b]	15%	12%	6%	—	—
17 – 22 May 2023	Roy Morgan [40]	2,095	42%	28.5%	12.5%	9%	8% [c]	61.5%	38.5%
19 – 22 Apr 2023	Resolve [41]	1,609	42%	30%	10%	12%	5%	—	—
15 – 18 Feb 2023	Resolve [42]	825	41%	30%	13%	13%	4%	—	—
8 Dec 2022	John Pesutto becomes Liberal leader and leader of the opposition
26 Nov 2022	2022 election [43]		37.0%	34.5%	11.5%	5.5%	11.6%	55%	45%

Legislative Council

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	LCA	DLP	LBT	SFF	ONP	FFP	AJP	VS	OTH
21–27 Oct 2025	DemosAU [2] [3]	1,016	21%	30%	14%	2%	2%	4%	1%	11%	5%	3%	1%	6% [d]
26 Nov 2022	2022 election		33.0%	29.4%	10.3%	4.1%	3.5%	2.6%	2.1%	2.0%	2.0%	1.5%	1.4%	8.0%

Leadership approval

Preferred premier

Date	Firm	Sample	Preferred Premier
			Allan	Wilson	Don't know	Net
18 Nov 2025	Jess Wilson becomes Liberal leader and leader of the opposition
Date	Firm	Sample	Preferred Premier
			Allan	Battin	Don't know	Net
14 – 17 Nov 2025	Freshwater [1]	1,217	34%	45%	21%	11%
21 – 27 Oct 2025	DemosAU [2] [3]	1,016	32%	40%	28%	8%
12 Oct 2025	Resolve [5]	1,000	27%	33%	40%	6%
2 – 9 Sep 2025	DemosAU [7] [8]	1,327	32%	37%	31%	5%
23 – 30 Jun 2025	Newspoll [10]	1,000	36%	41%	23%	5%
30 Mar 2025	Resolve Strategic [14]	1,000	23%	36%	41%	13%
17 – 21 Mar 2025	DemosAU [15]	1,006	30%	43%	27%	13%
Dec 2024 – Jan 2025	Resolve Strategic [16]	1,124	27%	36%	37%	9%
27 Dec 2024	Brad Battin becomes Liberal leader and leader of the opposition
Date	Firm	Sample	Preferred Premier
			Allan	Pesutto	Don't know	Net
10 Nov 2024	Resolve Strategic [19]	1,000	29%	30%	41%	1%
7 Sep 2024	Resolve Strategic [23]	1,054	30%	29%	41%	1%
14 Jul 2024	Resolve Strategic [27]	1,000	31%	28%	41%	3%
19 May 2024	Resolve Strategic [29]	1,000	31%	26%	43%	5%
24 Mar 2024	Resolve Strategic [30]	1,100	34%	25%	41%	9%
3 Dec 2023	Resolve Strategic [34]	1,100	34%	22%	44%	12%
Sep – Oct 2023	Resolve Strategic [35]	1,100	38%	19%	43%	19%
27 Sep 2023	Jacinta Allan becomes Labor leader and premier
Date	Firm	Sample	Preferred Premier
			Andrews	Pesutto	Don't know	Net
Jul – Aug 2023	Resolve Strategic [37]	1,100	41%	32%	27%	9%
19 – 20 Jul 2023	Roy Morgan [38]	1,046	52.5%	47.5%	—	5%
May – Jun 2023	Resolve Strategic [39]	1,003	49%	26%	25%	23%
17 – 22 May 2023	Roy Morgan [40]	2,095	64%	36%	—	28%
19 – 22 Apr 2023	Resolve Strategic [41]	1,609	49%	28%	23%	21%
15 – 18 Feb 2023	Resolve Strategic [42]	825	50%	26%	24%	24%

Satisfaction ratings

Date	Firm	Sample	Allan				Wilson
			Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Don't know	Net	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Don't know	Net
18 Nov 2025	Jess Wilson becomes Liberal leader and leader of the opposition
Date	Firm	Sample	Allan				Battin
			Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Don't know	Net	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Don't know	Net
14 – 17 Nov 2025	Freshwater [1]	1,217	—	—	—	-28%	—	—	—	+15%
23 – 30 Jun 2025	Newspoll [10]	1,000	30%	61%	9%	-31%	35%	40%	25%	-5%
24 Mar – 2 Apr 2025	Redbridge [12]	2,013	16%	51%	33%	-35%	27%	16%	57%	+11%
13 Mar 2025	JWS Research [44]	—	21%	54%	25%	-33%	—	—	—	—
27 Dec 2024	Brad Battin becomes Liberal leader and leader of the opposition
Date	Firm	Sample	Allan				Pesutto
			Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Don't know	Net	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Don't know	Net
22 Dec 2023	Redbridge [33]	—	24%	30%	46%	-6%	16%	29%	55%	-13%
27 Sep 2023	Jacinta Allan becomes Labor leader and premier
Date	Firm	Sample	Andrews				Pesutto
			Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Don't know	Net	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Don't know	Net
19 – 20 Jul 2023	Roy Morgan [38]	1,046	45%	55%	—	-10%	—	—	—	—
17 – 22 May 2023	Roy Morgan [40]	2,095	52.5%	47.5%	—	+5%	46.5%	53.5%	—	-7%

Sub-state results

Inner Melbourne

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote					2PP vote
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
21 – 27 Oct 2025	DemosAU [2] [3]	—	27%	31%	25%	—	17%	57%	43%
2 – 9 Sep 2025	DemosAU [7] [8]	—	27%	36%	19%	—	18%	52%	48%
6 – 20 Nov 2024	Redbridge [17] [18]	—	28%	41%	17%	—	14%	49%	51%

Outer Melbourne

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote					2PP vote
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
21 – 27 Oct 2025	DemosAU [2] [3]	—	27%	40%	11%	—	22%	46%	54%
2 – 9 Sep 2025	DemosAU [7] [8]	—	25%	39%	14%	—	21%	47%	53%
6 – 20 Nov 2024	Redbridge [17] [18]	—	31%	42%	15%	—	12%	50%	50%

Regional/Rural Victoria

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote					2PP vote
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
21 – 27 Oct 2025	DemosAU [2] [3]	—	22%	39%	10%	—	29%	43%	57%
2 – 9 Sep 2025	DemosAU [7] [8]	—	28%	36%	11%	—	26%	48%	52%
6 – 20 Nov 2024	Redbridge [17] [18]	—	31%	45%	8%	—	16%	46%	54%

Subpopulation results

By gender

Women

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote					2PP vote
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
21 – 27 Oct 2025	DemosAU [2] [3]	—	24%	36%	19%	—	21%	50%	50%
8 – 14 Oct 2025	Redbridge [4]	—	30%	36%	14%	—	20%	52%	48%
12 Oct 2025	Resolve [5]	—	27%	32%	13%	11%	17%	—	—
2 – 9 Sep 2025	DemosAU [7] [8]	—	26%	33%	19%	—	23%	52%	48%
17 Aug 2025	Resolve [9]	—	32%	28%	16%	10%	14%	—	—
6 – 20 Nov 2024	Redbridge [17] [18]	—	28%	42%	16%	—	14%	49%	51%

Men

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote					2PP vote
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
21 – 27 Oct 2025	DemosAU [2] [3]	—	28%	39%	11%	—	22%	47%	53%
8 – 14 Oct 2025	Redbridge [4]	—	35%	41%	11%	—	13%	51%	49%
12 Oct 2025	Resolve [5]	—	34%	34%	10%	9%	13%	—	—
2 – 9 Sep 2025	DemosAU [7] [8]	—	27%	43%	11%	—	20%	44%	56%
17 Aug 2025	Resolve [9]	—	31%	39%	8%	9%	13%	—	—
6 – 20 Nov 2024	Redbridge [17] [18]	—	32%	43%	12%	—	13%	49%	51%

By age

18–24

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote					2PP vote
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
2 – 9 Sep 2025	DemosAU [7] [8]	—	30%	21%	39%	—	10%	70%	30%

18–34

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote					2PP vote
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
21 – 27 Oct 2025	DemosAU [2] [3]	—	30%	23%	31%	—	16%	65%	35%
12 Oct 2025	Resolve [5]	—	39%	20%	20%	13%	9%	—	—
17 Aug 2025	Resolve [9]	—	39%	20%	25%	10%	6%	—	—
6 – 20 Nov 2024	Redbridge [17] [18]	—	31%	26%	29%	—	14%	64%	36%

25–34

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote					2PP vote
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
2 – 9 Sep 2025	DemosAU [7] [8]	—	33%	27%	22%	—	19%	60%	40%

35–54

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote					2PP vote
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
21 – 27 Oct 2025	DemosAU [2] [3]	—	27%	34%	19%	—	20%	53%	47%
12 Oct 2025	Resolve [5]	—	30%	29%	14%	11%	17%	—	—
17 Aug 2025	Resolve [9]	—	35%	27%	12%	10%	16%	—	—

55+

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote					2PP vote
			ALP	L/NP	GRN	IND	OTH	ALP	L/NP
21 – 27 Oct 2025	DemosAU [2] [3]	—	23%	46%	5%	—	26%	38%	62%
12 Oct 2025	Resolve [5]	—	23%	47%	4%	7%	18%	—	—
17 Aug 2025	Resolve [9]	—	24%	49%	4%	8%	15%	—	—

Individual seat polling

Hawthorn

Date	Firm	Sample size	Primary vote							2PP vote
			LIB	ALP	IND	GRN	FFP	AJP	OTH	LIB	ALP
14 – 16 Aug 2025	Freshwater [e] [45]	1,147	41%	—	—	—	—	—	—	45%	55%
26 Nov 2022	2022 election		42.3%	22.1%	20.0%	11.1%	1.5%	0.9%	2.1%	51.7%	48.3%

Notes

1. Legalise Cannabis 1%, Animal Justice Party 1%, other parties 6.5%
2. 23% for the Liberal Party and 3% for the National Party.
3. Legalise Cannabis 1.5%, Animal Justice Party 1.5%, other parties 5%
4. 6% for "other":
   • Companions and Pets: 2%
   • Sustainable Australia: 2%
   • Freedom Party: 1%
   • New Democrats: 1%
5. Commissioned by a "group of Liberal Party members opposed to the bailout of John Pesutto". ^[45]

References

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