2026 Victorian state election

Last updated

2026 Victorian state election
Flag of Victoria (Australia).svg
  2022 28 November 20262030 

All 88 seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly
All 40 seats in the Victorian Legislative Council
45 Assembly seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan (cropped).jpg Victorian Liberal Leader John Pesutto b.jpg Ellen Sandell Melbourne.jpg
Leader Jacinta Allan John Pesutto Ellen Sandell
Party Labor Liberal/National Coalition Greens
Leader since 27 September 2023 8 December 2022 23 April 2024
Leader's seat Bendigo East Hawthorn Melbourne
Last election56 seats, 36.66%28 seats, 34.48% [lower-alpha 1] 4 seats, 11.50%
Current seats54 [lower-alpha 2] 284
Seats neededSteady2.svgIncrease2.svg 17Increase2.svg 41

Incumbent Premier

Jacinta Allan
Labor



The 2026 Victorian state election is expected to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect the 61st Parliament of Victoria. [1] All 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly (lower house) and all 40 seats in the Legislative Council (upper house) will be up for election, presuming there are no new electorates added in a redistribution.

Contents

The Labor government, currently led by Premier Jacinta Allan, will attempt to win a record fourth consecutive four-year term against the Liberal/National Coalition opposition, currently led by John Pesutto.

The election will be administered by the Victorian Electoral Commission.

Background

Previous election and parliament

The Daniel Andrews-led Labor government was returned to power in 2014 after winning a majority of seats in the Legislative Assembly at the 2014 state election. The Labor party was re-elected at the 2018 state election and again at the 2022 state election, winning 56 seats. The Liberal/National Coalition gained one seat to 28 seats, the Greens won 4 seats. In the Legislative Council, the Labor party won 15 of the 40 seats.

Jacinta Allan and the Labor government is expected to be seeking a four-year term, after the previous premier Daniel Andrews announced his resignation as Premier of Victoria and Member for Mulgrave in September 2023, effective the following day. [2]

Opposition Leader Matthew Guy stood down as Liberal leader a day after the party's poor result at the 2022 election, with John Pesutto elected as the new leader after the ensuing party room ballot.

Since the last state election there have been three by-elections; the 2023 Narracan state by-election held in January 2023, the 2023 Warrandyte state by-election held in August 2023, and the 2023 Mulgrave state by-election held on 18 November 2023.

Electoral system

Eligible Victorian electors are required to cast a ballot due to compulsory voting laws. The eligibility criteria for enrolment to vote includes being 18 years or older, an Australian citizen, and to have lived in Victoria for longer than a month. [1]

Legislative Assembly

For the election of members to single seats of the Legislative Assembly, the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) uses full preferential voting where for a vote to count, it is required to number every box on the ballot in the order of the most preferred candidate for the particular electoral district an elector is registered to vote in. [3] The election will cover all 88 Seats of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. [4]

Legislative Council

For the election of members to multi-member state regions in the Legislative Council the VEC uses optional preferential voting where voters can either vote for a political party or a group voting ticket 'above the line' or vote for individual candidates 'below the line'. [3] Members of the Legislative Council represent state regions. There are currently eight state regions, they make up of eleven Legislative Assembly districts and are each represented by five members of Parliament in the Legislative Council. [5]

When voting 'above the line', for a vote to count, voters are required to write the number 1 for the political party or group of candidates they prefer. Preferences will then be automatically distributed based on the registered preference order provided to the VEC by the group voting ticket. [3]

When voting 'below the line', for a vote to count, voters are required to number a minimum of 5 boxes on the ballot in the order of their most preferred candidate. [3]

Candidates and retiring MPs

The following members announced that they were not contesting the 2026 election:

Liberal

Date

In accordance to the timetable set out in the Electoral Act 2002 (VIC), the terms of elected officials to Victorian Parliament are on a fixed term basis. All elections since the 2006 have occurred every four years on the last Saturday of November. Unless the Governor of Victoria unexpectedly dissolves parliament, the election is expected to be held on 28 November 2026. [7]

Expected timeline of the election

Pre-electoral pendulum

Extended content
Labor seats (54)
SeatMemberPartyMargin
Marginal
Northcote Kat Theophanous ALP0.2% v GRN
Bass Jordan Crugnale ALP0.2%
Pakenham Emma Vulin ALP0.4%
Hastings Paul Mercurio ALP1.4%
Pascoe Vale Anthony Cianflone ALP2.0% v GRN
Preston Nathan Lambert ALP2.1% v GRN
Ripon Martha Haylett ALP3.0%
Glen Waverley John Mullahy ALP3.3%
Bayswater Jackson Taylor ALP4.2%
Footscray Katie Hall ALP4.2% v GRN
Yan Yean Lauren Kathage ALP4.3%
Melton Steve McGhie ALP4.6%
Fairly safe
Ashwood Matt Fregon ALP6.2%
Mulgrave Eden Foster ALP6.2% v IND [lower-alpha 3]
Sunbury Josh Bull ALP6.4%
Niddrie Ben Carroll ALP6.7%
Greenvale Iwan Walters ALP7.1%
Eureka Michaela Settle ALP7.2%
Box Hill Paul Hamer ALP7.2%
Monbulk Daniela De Martino ALP7.6%
Bentleigh Nick Staikos ALP8.0%
Mordialloc Tim Richardson ALP8.2%
Narre Warren South Gary Maas ALP8.3%
Point Cook Mathew Hilakari ALP8.3%
Bellarine Alison Marchant ALP8.5%
Frankston Paul Edbrooke ALP8.7%
Narre Warren North Belinda Wilson ALP8.7%
Sydenham Natalie Hutchins ALP8.8%
Cranbourne Pauline Richards ALP9.0%
Eltham Vicki Ward ALP9.0%
Macedon Mary-Anne Thomas ALP9.5%
St Albans Natalie Suleyman ALP9.6%
Carrum Sonya Kilkenny ALP9.8%
South Barwon Darren Cheeseman ALP9.8%
Safe
Clarinda Meng Heang Tak ALP10.2%
Bendigo East Jacinta Allan ALP10.8%
Werribee Tim Pallas ALP10.9%
Albert Park Nina Taylor ALP11.2%
Mill Park Lily D'Ambrosio ALP11.6%
Wendouree Juliana Addison ALP11.9%
Tarneit Dylan Wight ALP12.3%
Essendon Danny Pearson ALP12.5%
Bundoora Colin Brooks ALP12.7%
Ivanhoe Anthony Carbines ALP13.0%
Williamstown Melissa Horne ALP13.4%
Oakleigh Steve Dimopoulos ALP13.5%
Kororoit Luba Grigorovitch ALP14.5%
Bendigo West Maree Edwards ALP14.6%
Geelong Christine Couzens ALP14.7%
Broadmeadows Kathleen Matthews-Ward ALP15.5%
Thomastown Bronwyn Halfpenny ALP15.8%
Lara Ella George ALP15.9%
Kalkallo Ros Spence ALP16.5%
Dandenong Gabrielle Williams ALP18.3%
Laverton Sarah Connolly ALP18.4%
Liberal/National seats (28)
SeatMemberPartyMargin
Marginal
Mornington Chris Crewther LIB0.7% v IND
Benambra Bill Tilley LIB0.9% v IND
Mildura Jade Benham NAT1.2% v IND
Croydon David Hodgett LIB1.4%
Hawthorn John Pesutto LIB1.7%
Polwarth Richard Riordan LIB1.8%
Caulfield David Southwick LIB2.1%
Rowville Kim Wells LIB3.7%
Kew Jess Wilson LIB4.0%
Warrandyte [lower-alpha 4] Nicole Werner LIB4.3%
Morwell Martin Cameron NAT4.4%
Berwick Brad Battin LIB4.7%
Sandringham Brad Rowswell LIB5.0%
Brighton James Newbury LIB5.1%
Evelyn Bridget Vallence LIB5.4%
Bulleen Matthew Guy LIB5.9%
Fairly safe
Nepean Sam Groth LIB6.4%
Shepparton Kim O'Keeffe NAT6.8% v IND
Eildon Cindy McLeish LIB7.0%
South-West Coast Roma Britnell LIB8.0%
Malvern Michael O'Brien LIB8.1%
Euroa Annabelle Cleeland NAT9.9%
Safe
Narracan [lower-alpha 5] Wayne Farnham LIB13.0% v IND
Gippsland South Danny O'Brien NAT15.6%
Ovens Valley Tim McCurdy NAT17.8%
Very safe
Lowan Emma Kealy NAT21.6%
Murray Plains Peter Walsh NAT23.4%
Gippsland East Tim Bull NAT24.6%
Crossbench seats (6)
SeatMemberPartyMargin
Richmond Gabrielle de Vietri GRN7.3% v ALP
Ringwood Will Fowles ALP7.5% v LIB
South Barwon Darren Cheeseman ALP9.8% v LIB
Melbourne Ellen Sandell GRN10.2% v ALP
Prahran Sam Hibbins GRN12.0% v LIB
Brunswick Tim Read GRN13.7% v ALP

Opinion polling

Primary Poll Graph

2026 victorian state election scatter plot - primary.svg

2PP Poll Graph

2026 victorian state election scatter plot - TPP.svg

Voting intention

Legislative Assembly (lower house) polling
DateFirmSamplePrimary vote TPP vote
ALPLIBNATGRNOTHALPL/NP
18 September 2024Redbridge [9] 1,50030%40%*12%17%50%50%
7 September 2024Resolve Strategic [10] 1,05427%37%*14%22%50%50%
6 – 29 August 2024Wolf & Smith [11] [12] 2,02428%40%*14%18%48%52%
5 August 2024Redbridge [13] 1,51431%40%*12%17%50%50%
14 July 2024Resolve Strategic [14] 1,00027%37%*15%21%50%50%
7 June 2024Redbridge [15] 1,00035%38%*14%13%55%45%
19 May 2024Resolve Strategic [16] [lower-alpha 6] 28%37%*13%22%50%50%
24 March 2024Resolve Strategic [18] [lower-alpha 6] ~1,10033%35%*13%19%54.6%45.4%
14 – 20 March 2024Redbridge [19] 1,55936%38%*10%16%54%46%
2 – 12 December 2023Redbridge [20] [21] 2,00037%36%*13%14%55.9%44.1%
3 December 2023Resolve Strategic [22] [lower-alpha 6] ~1,10037%31%*11%20%56.5%43.5%
September – October 2023Resolve Strategic [23] [lower-alpha 6] ~1,10039%32%*12%17%57.5%42.5%
27 September 2023
Jacinta Allan becomes premier and Labor leader
31 August – 14 September 2023Redbridge [24] 3,00137%34%*13%16%56.5%43.5%
July – August 2023Resolve Strategic [25] [lower-alpha 6] ~1,10039%28%*13%20%60%40%
19 – 20 July 2023 Roy Morgan [26] 1,04633%35.5%*12.5%19% [lower-alpha 7] 53%47%
May – June 2023Resolve Strategic [27] [lower-alpha 6] 1,00341%23%3%15%18%62.5%37.5%
17 – 22 May 2023 Roy Morgan [28] 2,09542%28.5%*12.5%17% [lower-alpha 8] 61.5%38.5%
19 – 22 April 2023Resolve Strategic [29] [lower-alpha 6] 1,60942%30%*10%17%60.5%39.5%
15 – 18 February 2023Resolve Strategic [30] [lower-alpha 6] 82541%30%*13%17%60.9%39.1%
8 December 2022
John Pesutto becomes Liberal leader and leader of the opposition
26 November 2022 election [31] N/AN/A37.0%29.6%4.8%11.5%17.1%55%45%
21 – 24 November 2022Newspoll [32] 1,22638%35%*12%15%54.5%45.5%
* Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian . [33]

Preferred premier and satisfaction

Better premier and satisfaction polling*
DateFirmBetter premierAllanPesutto
Allan PesuttoSatisfiedDissatisfiedSatisfiedDissatisfied
7 September 2024Resolve Strategic [10] 30%29%not askednot asked
14 July 2024Resolve Strategic [14] 31%28%not askednot asked
19 May 2024Resolve Strategic [34] 31%26%not askednot asked
24 March 2024Resolve Strategic [18] 34%25%not askednot asked
22 December 2023Redbridge [21] not asked24%30%16%29%
3 December 2023Resolve Strategic [22] 34%22%not askednot asked
September – October 2023Resolve Strategic [23] 38%19%not askednot asked
27 September 2023 Allan replaces Andrews Andrews Pesutto AndrewsPesutto
July – August 2023Resolve Strategic [25] 41%32%not askednot asked
19 – 20 July 2023Roy Morgan [26] 52.5%47.5%45%55%not asked
May – June 2023Resolve Strategic [27] 49%26%not askednot asked
17 – 22 May 2023Roy Morgan [28] 64%36%52.5%47.5%46.5%53.5%
19 – 22 April 2023Resolve Strategic [29] 49%28%not askednot asked
15 – 18 February 2023Resolve Strategic [30] 50%26%not askednot asked
8 December 2022 Pesutto replaces GuyAndrews Guy AndrewsGuy
26 November 2022 election
21 – 24 November 2022Newspoll [32] 51%35%46%48%31%56%
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
† Participants were forced to choose.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian . [33]

Notes

  1. The election for the District of Narracan was deferred. A supplementary election was held on 28 January 2023.
  2. Will Fowles and Darren Cheeseman have sat on the crossbench as Independent Labor MPs since 5 August 2023 and 29 April 2024 respectively.
  3. Elected at the 2023 Mulgrave state by-election following the resignation of Daniel Andrews.
  4. The two-candidate-preferred result of the 2023 by-election was LIB 21.0% vs GRN. However Labor did not contest the by-election, therefore the LIB vs GRN margin won't be the two-candidate-preferred margin for Warrandyte at the next state election, and therefore should not be used in the pendulum. The LIB vs ALP margin for Warrandyte at the 2022 state election is used instead.
  5. Due to the sudden death of Nationals candidate Shaun Gilchrist, the election in Narracan was deferred, and a supplementary election was instead held on 28 January 2023.
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Resolve Strategic does not publish TPP figures. The TPP figure shown here has been manually calculated. [17]
  7. Legalise Cannabis 1%, Animal Justice Party 1%, independents 10.5%, Other parties 6.5%
  8. Legalise Cannabis 1.5%, Animal Justice Party 1.5%, independents 9%, Other parties 5%

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