2026 Victorian state election

Last updated

2026 Victorian state election
Flag of Victoria (Australia).svg
  2022 28 November 2026

All 88 seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly
All 40 seats in the Victorian Legislative Council
45 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Jacinta Allan-2024.jpg
Brad Battin (cropped).jpg
Ellen Sandell Melbourne.jpg
Leader Jacinta Allan Brad Battin Ellen Sandell
Party Labor Liberal/National coalition Greens
Leader since 27 September 2023 27 December 2024 23 April 2024
Leader's seat Bendigo East Berwick Melbourne
Last election56 seats, 36.66%28 seats, 34.48% [a] 4 seats, 11.50%
Current seats54 [b] 29 [c] 3 [c]
Seats neededSteady2.svgIncrease2.svg 16Increase2.svg 42

2026 Victorian state election.svg
Winning margin by electorate

Incumbent Premier

Jacinta Allan
Labor



The 2026 Victorian state election is expected to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect the 61st Parliament of Victoria. [2] All 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly (lower house) and all 40 seats in the Legislative Council (upper house) will be up for election, presuming there are no new electorates added in a redistribution.

Contents

The Labor government, currently led by Premier Jacinta Allan, will attempt to win a record fourth consecutive four-year term against the Liberal/National Coalition opposition, currently led by Brad Battin.

The election will be administered by the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC).

Background

Previous election and parliament

The Daniel Andrews-led Labor government won power in 2014 after winning a majority of seats in the Legislative Assembly at the 2014 state election. Labor has been in government for all but one term since 1999. Andrews was re-elected at the 2018 state election and again at the 2022 state election, winning 56 seats. The Liberal/National Coalition gained one seat to 28 seats, the Greens won 4 seats. In the Legislative Council, the Labor party won 15 of the 40 seats.

Daniel Andrews announced his resignation as Premier and leader of the Victorian Labor Party at a press conference on 26 September 2023; a resignation that was formally effected the following day. This precipitated a leadership election within the Labor party-room, which was won unopposed by Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan following hours of intense negotiations between members of Labor's left and right factions. Allan, of the left, was elected leader, with right-faction member and Education Minister Ben Carroll as her deputy. [3] Allan became the second female premier in the state's history, following Joan Kirner's 1990–1992 premiership. [4] The government is seeking a fourth consecutive four-year term.

Following the Liberal/National Coalition's defeat, Opposition Leader and Liberal leader Matthew Guy announced in his post-election concession speech he would resign the leadership of the party. This ensured a leadership election was held for the position, at which newly elected member for Hawthorn John Pesutto defeated Brad Battin by one vote in a secret ballot of Liberal party-room MPs. [5]

Since the 2022 state election, and the January 2023 supplementary election in Narracan, there have been four by-elections: the August 2023 Warrandyte by-election, the November 2023 Mulgrave by-election, and the February 2025 Werribee and Prahran by-elections. In the first three cases, the incumbent's party successfully retained the seat; in Prahran, the incumbent Greens were defeated by the Liberal candidate.

Aside from this, the Assembly's composition has been altered by the removal of Will Fowles and Darren Cheeseman from the Labor caucus in October 2023 and April 2024 respectively, with both now sitting on the crossbench as "Independent Labor" MPs. The resignation of Sam Hibbins from the Greens on 1 November 2024 also resulted in his sitting on the crossbench as an Independent MP until resigning from Parliament on 23 November, resulting in the Prahran by-election. [6]

On 27 December 2024, a leadership spill resulted in Brad Battin replacing John Pesutto as leader of the Liberal/National Coalition. [7]

Electoral system

Eligible Victorian electors are required to cast a ballot due to compulsory voting laws. The eligibility criteria for enrolment to vote includes being 18 years or older, an Australian citizen, and to have lived in Victoria for longer than a month. [2]

Legislative Assembly

For the election of members to single seats of the Legislative Assembly, the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) uses full preferential voting where for a vote to count, it is required to number every box on the ballot in the order of the most preferred candidate for the particular electoral district an elector is registered to vote in. [8] The election will cover all 88 Seats of the Victorian Legislative Assembly. [9]

Legislative Council

For the election of members to multi-member state regions in the Legislative Council the VEC uses optional preferential voting where voters can either vote for a political party or a group voting ticket 'above the line' or vote for individual candidates 'below the line'. [8] Members of the Legislative Council represent state regions. There are currently eight state regions, they make up of eleven Legislative Assembly districts and are each represented by five members of Parliament in the Legislative Council. [10]

When voting 'above the line', for a vote to count, voters are required to write the number 1 for the political party or group of candidates they prefer. Preferences are then automatically distributed based on the registered preference order provided to the VEC by the group voting ticket. [8] When voting 'below the line', for a vote to count, voters are required to number a minimum of 5 boxes on the ballot in the order of their most preferred candidate. [8]

Victoria's upper house is the last remaining legislative chamber to utilise party-submitted group voting tickets to automatically distribute voter's above-the-line preferences. The parliament's electoral matters committee is currently overseeing an inquiry into potential reforms for the election of members to the council to more closely mirror the electoral system in place for Australia's Senate and other state upper houses. [11] The committee is due to hand down its report in December 2025, and any proposed reforms would require the approval of both chambers of parliament, whilst proposed changes to the structure of the upper house would require a vote at a referendum. [11] [12]

Registered parties

Parties registered with the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC). [13]

Additionally, The West Party was established in December 2024 and plans to be registered in time for the 2026 election. [14]

Candidates and retiring MPs

The following members announced that they were not contesting the 2026 election:

Liberal

National

Campaign

On 13 September 2025, the first day of the Victorian Liberal state conference, Battin announced that if elected his government would, by Christmas 2026, grant police the power to stop and search individuals in public places using a handheld metal detector without warrants or designations. [19] [20] [21]

Date

In accordance to the timetable set out in the Electoral Act 2002 (VIC), the terms of elected officials to Victorian Parliament are on a fixed term basis. All elections since the 2006 have occurred every four years on the last Saturday of November. Unless the Governor of Victoria unexpectedly dissolves parliament, the election is expected to be held on 28 November 2026. [22]

Expected timeline of the election

Pre-electoral pendulum

Opinion polling

Primary Poll Graph

Vic Next Election 2026 Primary Vote.svg

2PP Poll Graph

Vic 2026 Election two party preffered.svg

Voting intention

Legislative Assembly (lower house) polling
DateFirmSamplePrimary vote TPP vote
ALP LIB NAT GRN OTH ALP L/NP
17 August 2025Resolve Strategic [25] [n] 32%33%12%22%
23–30 June 2025Newspoll [26] 35%35%*12%18%53%47%
19–30 June 2025Redbridge [27] 1,18333%38%*14%15%51.5%48.5%
24 March – 2 April 2025Redbridge [28] [29] 2,01329%41%*13%17%49%51%
30 March 2025Resolve Strategic [30] [n] 1,00024%41%*14%21% [o]
17–21 March 2025DemosAU [31] 1,00625%39%*15%21%48%52%
December 2024 – January 2025Resolve Strategic [32] [n] 1,12422%42%*13%23% [p]
27 December 2024
Brad Battin becomes Liberal leader and leader of the opposition
6–20 November 2024Redbridge [33] [34] 92030%43%*14%13%49%51%
10 November 2024Resolve Strategic [35] [n] 1,00028%38%*13%21%
26 September – 3 October 2024Redbridge [36] [37] 1,51630%40%*12%18%49%51%
18 September 2024Redbridge [38] 1,50030%40%*12%17%50%50%
7 September 2024Resolve Strategic [39] [n] 1,05427%37%*14%22%
6 – 29 August 2024Wolf & Smith [40] [41] 2,02428%40%*14%18%48%52%
5 August 2024Redbridge [42] 1,51431%40%*12%17%50%50%
14 July 2024Resolve Strategic [43] [n] 1,00027%37%*15%21%
7 June 2024Redbridge [44] 1,00035%38%*14%13%55%45%
19 May 2024Resolve Strategic [45] 28%37%*13%22%
24 March 2024Resolve Strategic [46] [n] ~1,10033%35%*13%19%54.6%45.4%
14 – 20 March 2024Redbridge [47] 1,55936%38%*10%16%54%46%
2 – 12 December 2023Redbridge [48] [49] 2,00037%36%*13%14%55.9%44.1%
3 December 2023Resolve Strategic [50] [n] ~1,10037%31%*11%20%
September – October 2023Resolve Strategic [51] [n] ~1,10039%32%*12%17%
27 September 2023
Jacinta Allan becomes premier and Labor leader
31 August – 14 September 2023Redbridge [52] 3,00137%34%*13%16%56.5%43.5%
July – August 2023Resolve Strategic [53] [n] ~1,10039%28%*13%20%
19 – 20 July 2023 Roy Morgan [54] 1,04633%35.5%*12.5%19% [q] 53%47%
May – June 2023Resolve Strategic [55] [n] 1,00341%23%3%15%18%
17 – 22 May 2023 Roy Morgan [56] 2,09542%28.5%*12.5%17% [r] 61.5%38.5%
19 – 22 April 2023Resolve Strategic [57] [n] 1,60942%30%*10%17%
15 – 18 February 2023Resolve Strategic [58] [n] 82541%30%*13%17%
8 December 2022
John Pesutto becomes Liberal leader and leader of the opposition
26 November 2022 election [59] N/AN/A37.0%29.6%4.8%11.5%17.1%55%45%
21 – 24 November 2022Newspoll [60] 1,22638%35%*12%15%54.5%45.5%
* Indicates a combined Liberal and National Coalition primary vote.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian . [61]

Better premier and satisfaction polling

DateFirmBetter premierAllanBattin
Allan Battin SatisfiedDissatisfiedSatisfiedDissatisfied
23–30 June 2025Newspoll [26] 36%41%30%61%35%40%
24 March – 2 April 2025Redbridge [28] not asked16%51%27%16%
30 March 2025Resolve Strategic [30] 23%36%not askednot asked
17–21 March 2025DemosAU [31] 30%43%not askednot asked
13 March 2025JWS Research [62] not asked21%54%not asked
Early-December 2024 and Mid-January 2025 [32] Resolve Strategic27%36%not askednot asked
27 December 2024 Battin replaces PesuttoAllan Pesutto AllanPesutto
10 November 2024Resolve Strategic [35] 29%30%not askednot asked
7 September 2024Resolve Strategic [39] 30%29%not askednot asked
14 July 2024Resolve Strategic [43] 31%28%not askednot asked
19 May 2024Resolve Strategic [45] 31%26%not askednot asked
24 March 2024Resolve Strategic [46] 34%25%not askednot asked
22 December 2023Redbridge [49] not asked24%30%16%29%
3 December 2023Resolve Strategic [50] 34%22%not askednot asked
September – October 2023Resolve Strategic [51] 38%19%not askednot asked
27 September 2023 Allan replaces Andrews Andrews Pesutto AndrewsPesutto
July – August 2023Resolve Strategic [53] 41%32%not askednot asked
19 – 20 July 2023Roy Morgan [54] 52.5%47.5%45%55%not asked
May – June 2023Resolve Strategic [55] 49%26%not askednot asked
17 – 22 May 2023Roy Morgan [56] 64%36%52.5%47.5%46.5%53.5%
19 – 22 April 2023Resolve Strategic [57] 49%28%not askednot asked
15 – 18 February 2023Resolve Strategic [58] 50%26%not askednot asked
8 December 2022 Pesutto replaces GuyAndrews Guy AndrewsGuy
26 November 2022 election
21 – 24 November 2022Newspoll [60] 51%35%46%48%31%56%
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
† Participants were forced to choose.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian . [61]

Notes

  1. The election for the District of Narracan was deferred. A supplementary election was held on 28 January 2023.
  2. Will Fowles and Darren Cheeseman have sat on the crossbench as Independent Labor MPs since 5 August 2023 and 29 April 2024 respectively.
  3. 1 2 The Greens lost the seat of Prahran to the Liberal Party at a by-election on 8 February 2025. [1]
  4. In April 2024, Cheeseman was suspended from the Labor Party caucus. He still remains a rank-and-file member of the party. [24]
  5. Elected at the 2023 Mulgrave state by-election following the resignation of Daniel Andrews.
  6. The two-candidate-preferred result of the 2023 by-election was ALP 6.5% vs IND.
  7. Lister succeeded Pallas following the 2025 Werribee state by-election.
  8. While Lister retained Werribee for Labor on a margin of 0.8% at the 2025 by-election, he will go into the state election based upon the margin that the party had won at the 2022 election.
  9. Werner succeeded Smith following the 2023 Warrandyte state by-election.
  10. The two-candidate-preferred result of the 2023 by-election was LIB 21.0% vs GRN. However Labor did not contest the by-election, therefore the LIB vs GRN margin won't be the two-candidate-preferred margin for Warrandyte at the next state election, and therefore should not be used in the pendulum. The LIB vs ALP margin for Warrandyte at the 2022 state election is used instead.
  11. Due to the sudden death of Nationals candidate Shaun Gilchrist, the election in Narracan was deferred, and a supplementary election was instead held on 28 January 2023.
  12. Elected following the 2025 Prahran state by-election.
  13. The two-candidate-preferred result of the 2025 by-election was LIB 1.4% vs GRN.
  14. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Resolve Strategic does not publish TPP figures.
  15. 14% for independents and 7% for "others". [30]
  16. 17% for independents and 6% for "others". [32]
  17. Legalise Cannabis 1%, Animal Justice Party 1%, independents 10.5%, Other parties 6.5%
  18. Legalise Cannabis 1.5%, Animal Justice Party 1.5%, independents 9%, Other parties 5%

References

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