2018 Victorian state election

Last updated

2018 Victorian state election
Flag of Victoria (Australia).svg
  2014 24 November 2018 2022  

All 88 seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly
All 40 seats in the Victorian Legislative Council
45 Assembly seats were needed for a majority
Information below is for the Assembly election.
 First partySecond partyThird party
  Daniel Andrews 2018.jpg Hon Matthew Guy (cropped).jpg Samantha Ratnam (cropped).jpg
Leader Daniel Andrews Matthew Guy Samantha Ratnam
Party Labor Liberal/National coalition Greens
Leader since3 December 20104 December 201412 October 2017
Leader's seat Mulgrave Bulleen MLC for Northern
Metropolitan
Last election47 seats38 seats2 seats
Seats before45 seats37 seats3 seats
Seats won55 seats27 seats3 seats
Seat changeIncrease2.svg8Decrease2.svg11Increase2.svg1
First preference  vote1,506,4601,236,912376,470
Percentage42.86%35.19%10.71%
SwingIncrease2.svg4.77Decrease2.svg6.80Decrease2.svg0.77
TPP 57.30%42.70%
TPP swingIncrease2.svg5.31Decrease2.svg5.31

Victoria State Election 2018 - Vote Strength.svg
The map on the left shows the first party preference by electorate. The map on the right shows the final two-party preferred vote result by electorate.

Premier before election

Daniel Andrews
Labor

Premier after election

Daniel Andrews
Labor

The 2018 Victorian state election was held on Saturday, 24 November 2018 to elect the 59th Parliament of Victoria. All 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly (lower house) and all 40 seats in the Legislative Council (upper house) were up for election. The first-term incumbent Labor government, led by Premier Daniel Andrews, won a second four-year term, defeating the Liberal/National Coalition opposition, led by Opposition Leader Matthew Guy. [1] Minor party the Greens led by Samantha Ratnam also contested the election.

Contents

Labor won 55 seats in the 88-seat Legislative Assembly, an increase of eight seats from the previous election in 2014, and a majority of 22 seats. This was the fifth time that a Labor government was re-elected in Victoria, and it tied Victorian Labor's second-best showing at the state level. The Coalition suffered an 11-seat swing against it, and won 27 seats. The Greens won 3 seats, a net increase of 1 seat since the last election though equal to the share of seats they held when the election was called. The remaining three seats on the crossbench were won by independents. [2] In the Legislative Council, Labor won 18 seats, three short of a majority. The Coalition won 11 seats and the remaining 11 seats were won by a range of minor parties from across the political spectrum. [2]

Several days after Labor's victory, the Second Andrews Ministry was sworn in by the Governor and was notable for featuring an equal number of men and women. [3] The following week the Liberal Party elected Michael O'Brien leader of the party, who became Opposition Leader in the new parliament, after Guy had announced earlier he would stand down from the position. [4]

For the election, Victoria had compulsory voting and used majoritarian preferential voting in single-member seats for the Legislative Assembly, and Single transferable vote (STV) in multi-member seats for the proportionally represented Legislative Council. The Legislative Council had 40 members serving four-year terms, elected from eight electoral regions each with five members. With each region electing 5 members, the quota in each region for election, after distribution of preferences, was 16.7% (one-sixth) of the valid votes cast in that district. The election was conducted by the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC), an independent body answerable to parliament.

Results

Legislative Assembly

5533621
ALPGRNINDNATLIB
Winning party by electorate. Vic State Election 2018.png
Winning party by electorate.
Legislative Assembly (IRV) – (CV) [5]
PartyVotes %SwingSeatsChange
  Labor 1,506,46042.86+4.7755Increase2.svg 8
   Liberal 1,069,28730.43−6.0421Decrease2.svg 9
  National 167,6254.77−0.766Decrease2.svg 2
Coalition total 1,236,91235.19−6.8027Decrease2.svg 11
  Greens 376,47010.71−0.773Increase2.svg 1*
  Animal Justice 63,9701.82+1.590Steady2.svg
  Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 24,2570.69+0.610Steady2.svg
  Democratic Labour 24,0970.69+0.600Steady2.svg
  Victorian Socialists 15,4420.44+0.440Steady2.svg
  Reason 12,6950.36+0.100Steady2.svg
  Transport Matters 10,3130.29+0.290Steady2.svg
  Justice 9,2770.26+0.260Steady2.svg
  Sustainable Australia 8,1830.23+0.230Steady2.svg
  Country 6,5660.19−1.100Steady2.svg
  Liberal Democratic 4,0300.12+0.120Steady2.svg
  Aussie Battler 1,2810.04+0.040Steady2.svg
  Liberty Alliance 1,2320.04+0.040Steady2.svg
  Independents 213,2896.07+3.473Increase2.svg 2**
Total valid votes3,514,47494.17
Invalid/blank votes217,5925.83
Total3,732,06610088Steady2.svg
Registered voters / Turnout4,139,32690.16
Two-party-preferred vote***
  Labor 1,988,43457.30+5.3155Increase2.svg 8
  Coalition 1,481,97542.70−5.3127Decrease2.svg 11

* Compared with results at 2014 election. The Greens went into the 2018 election with 3 seats following the Northcote by-election, 2017
** Compared with results at 2014 election. There were 3 independent members at the dissolution of parliament following resignations by Russell Northe and Don Nardella.
*** Based on the 87 districts for which the Liberal/National Coalition fielded a candidate. The Liberal Party did not field a candidate in Richmond. Labor received 73.07% of the two-party-preferred vote in that district at the 2014 election.

Popular vote
Labor
42.86%
Liberal
30.43%
Greens
10.71%
National
4.77%
Independents
6.07%
Other
5.16%
Two-party-preferred vote
Labor
57.30%
Coalition
42.70%
Seats
Labor
62.50%
Coalition
30.68%
Greens
3.41%
Independents
3.41%
Seats changing hands [6]
Seat2014 electionSwing2018 election
PartyMemberMarginMarginMemberParty
Bass Liberal Brian Paynter 4.6+6.92.4 Jordan Crugnale Labor
Bayswater Liberal Heidi Victoria 4.6+5.00.4 Jackson Taylor Labor
Box Hill Liberal Robert Clark 5.7+7.82.1 Paul Hamer Labor
Brunswick Labor Jane Garrett 2.2+2.80.6 Tim Read Greens
Burwood Liberal Graham Watt 3.2+6.53.3 Will Fowles Labor
Hawthorn Liberal John Pesutto 8.6+9.00.4 John Kennedy Labor
Mildura National Peter Crisp 8.0+8.40.3 Ali Cupper Independent
Morwell National Russell Northe*1.8+3.61.8 Russell Northe Independent
Mount Waverley Liberal Michael Gidley 4.6+6.41.8 Matt Fregon Labor
Nepean Liberal Martin Dixon 7.6+8.50.9 Chris Brayne Labor
Northcote Greens Lidia Thorpe**−6.0−4.31.7 Kat Theophanous Labor
Ringwood Liberal Dee Ryall 5.1+7.92.8 Dustin Halse Labor
South Barwon Liberal Andrew Katos 2.9+7.54.6 Darren Cheeseman Labor
* Russell Northe was elected as a Nationals MP but resigned from the party in 2017. The margin given is his margin as a Nationals candidate in 2014.
** Lidia Thorpe won Northcote from Labor for the Greens at a by-election in November 2017. The margin here is the Greens margin at the 2014 election.

Labor's victory came primarily on the strength of a larger-than-expected and larger than statewide swing in eastern Melbourne, which has traditionally decided elections in Victoria. According to the ABC's election analyst Antony Green, the eastern suburbs were swept up in a "band of red". [7] They also took a number of seats in areas considered Liberal heartland. Hawthorn, for instance, fell to Labor for only the second time ever and for the first time in 63 years. Bass elected a Labor member for the first time ever; the seat and its predecessors, Gippsland West and Westernport, had been in conservative hands for all but two terms since 1909.

Legislative Council

Legislative Council (STV/GVT) – (CV) [5] [8]
PartyVotes %SwingSeatsChange
  Labor 1,406,12239.22+5.7618Increase2.svg 4
   Liberal (metropolitan)615,05017.15−3.677Decrease2.svg 3
  Liberal/National joint ticket 439,93012.27−3.04
  Liberal (regional)3Decrease2.svg 1
  National 1Decrease2.svg 1
Coalition total 1,054,98029.42−6.7111Decrease2.svg 5
  Greens 331,4799.25−1.501Decrease2.svg 4
  Justice 134,2663.75+3.753Increase2.svg 3
  Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 108,2803.02+1.371Decrease2.svg 1
  Liberal Democratic 89,4282.50−0.562Increase2.svg 2
  Animal Justice 88,5202.47+0.771Increase2.svg 1
  Democratic Labour 75,2212.10−0.220Decrease2.svg 1*
  Reason 49,0131.37−1.261Steady2.svg
  Voluntary Euthanasia 42,6111.19+0.700Steady2.svg
  Aussie Battler 33,1720.93+0.930Steady2.svg
  Victorian Socialists 32,6030.91+0.910Steady2.svg
  Sustainable Australia 29,8310.83+0.831Increase2.svg 1
  Health Australia 28,1320.79+0.790Steady2.svg
  Country 24,2950.68+0.000Steady2.svg
  Transport Matters 22,0510.62+0.621Increase2.svg 1
  Liberty Alliance 20,0650.56+0.560Steady2.svg
  Hudson for Northern Victoria 6,3630.18+0.180Steady2.svg
  Vote 1 Local Jobs 5,3380.15−0.060Decrease2.svg 1
  Independents and ungrouped 2,5560.07−0.060Steady2.svg**
Total valid votes3,583,47896.04
Invalid/blank votes147,7133.96
Total3,731,191 10040Steady2.svg
Registered voters / Turnout4,139,32690.14

* - Compared with results at 2014 election. The DLP went into the 2018 election with no Legislative Council seats after Rachel Carling-Jenkins initially defected to the Conservatives and eventually sat as an independent.
** - Compared with results at 2014 election. There was one independent at the dissolution of parliament after Rachel Carling-Jenkin's defections from the DLP and then the Conservatives.

Legislative Council seats table

RegionSeats held
Eastern Metropolitan      
Eastern Victoria      
Northern Metropolitan      
Northern Victoria      
South-Eastern Metropolitan      
Southern Metropolitan      
Western Metropolitan      
Western Victoria      

Party key:

  Labor
  Liberal
  Greens
  National
  Justice
  Liberal Democratic
  Reason
  Animal Justice
  Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
  Sustainable Australia
  Transport Matters

Labor benefited from an enormous swing toward it and consequently picked up at least one seat in most regions, winning 18 seats. The swing against the Coalition in the lower house was replicated in the Council and they lost five seats to finish with only 11. Most of the minor parties were the beneficiaries of above-the-line voting, though Reason Party MP Fiona Patten was re-elected on the back of a strong below-the-line vote in Northern Metropolitan. [9] The Greens were the biggest losers of the system, losing four of their five upper house members and only re-electing party leader Samantha Ratnam. [10] Derryn Hinch's Justice Party was the biggest winner on the crossbench, picking up three seats, however the party's member for Western Metropolitan (Catherine Cumming) defected to sit as an independent prior to being sworn in. [11] The Liberal Democrats won two seats.

Richard Willingham, the ABC News state political correspondent, described the result as proof of Labor's continued "dominance" of state politics, noting that "enough progressive parties [won] spots on the crossbench to potentially provide an avenue for any controversial legislation." [12]

Key dates

Pursuant to the Electoral Act 2002, Victoria has had fixed terms, with all elections since the 2006 election held every four years on the last Saturday of November. [13] [14] The incumbent government entered into caretaker mode at 6:00 pm on Tuesday, 30 October 2018, when writs were officially issued. [15]

Key dates for the election are: [16] [17]

Previous parliament

Legislative Assembly

Following the 2014 election, Labor formed majority government with 47 seats. The Coalition held 38 seats, with the Liberal Party holding 30 and the National Party holding 8. On the crossbench, the Greens held 2 seats and Independent Suzanna Sheed held the seat of Shepparton.

Legislative Council

Following the 2014 election, Labor held 14 seats; the Coalition held 16 seats (14 Liberal, 2 National); the Greens held 5 seats; the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party held 2 seats; and the Sex Party (now the Reason Party), Democratic Labour Party, and Vote 1 Local Jobs party held 1 seat each.

By-elections

Former Nationals leader Peter Ryan announced his resignation from parliament on 2 February 2015, triggering a by-election in the seat of Gippsland South for 14 March. [18] The election was won by Danny O'Brien of the National Party.

Denis Napthine and Terry Mulder resigned from parliament on 3 September 2015. Their seats were retained by the Liberal Party in by-elections held in South-West Coast and Polwarth on 31 October.

Minister for Women and Minister for the Prevention of Family Violence Fiona Richardson died on 23 August 2017. A by-election was held in the seat of Northcote on 18 November, in which the Victorian Greens won the seat from the Labor Party.

Changes in parliament

Don Nardella, the former Deputy Speaker of the Assembly and member for the seat of Melton, resigned from the Labor Party on 7 March 2017 to sit as an independent. Nardella's resignation was demanded by Premier Andrews after Nardella refused to pay back approximately $100,000 of taxpayer funded entitlements in the midst an expenses scandal. The resignation reduced the number of Labor members in the Assembly from 47 to 46, still above the 45 seats needed for majority government to be formed. Nardella had previously announced his intention to quit politics at the 2018 election and following his resignation from the Labor Party stated he intended to serve out his full term as the member for Melton. [19]

Russell Northe, the member for Morwell resigned from the National Party on 28 August 2017, due to mental health and financial issues, continuing in his position as an independent. [20]

Greg Barber resigned as Leader of the Greens and from his Northern Metropolitan Region seat on 28 September 2017, and was replaced in both by Moreland councillor Samantha Ratnam. [21]

Colleen Hartland, a Greens member of the Western Metropolitan Region, resigned on 8 February 2018, [22] and was replaced by Huong Truong.

State of electorates

The following Mackerras pendulum lists seats in the Legislative Assembly according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis based on the 2014 election results. [23] The Australian Electoral Commission considers a seat "safe" if it requires a swing of over 10% to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10%, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6%. [24]

Labor seats - 2014
SeatMemberPartyMargin
Marginal
Frankston Paul Edbrooke ALP0.5%
Carrum Sonya Kilkenny ALP0.7%
Bentleigh Nick Staikos ALP0.8%
Richmond Richard Wynne ALP1.9% v GRN
Mordialloc Tim Richardson ALP2.1%
Brunswick Jane Garrett ALP2.2% v GRN
Cranbourne Jude Perera ALP2.3%
Eltham Vicki Ward ALP2.7%
Albert Park Martin Foley ALP3.0%
Ivanhoe Anthony Carbines ALP3.4%
Yan Yean Danielle Green ALP3.7%
Macedon Mary-Anne Thomas ALP3.8%
Sunbury Josh Bull ALP4.3%
Mulgrave Daniel Andrews ALP4.5%
Narre Warren North Luke Donnellan ALP4.6%
Bellarine Lisa Neville ALP4.8%
Bendigo East Jacinta Allan ALP5.0%
Monbulk James Merlino ALP5.0%
Narre Warren South Judith Graley ALP5.5%
Wendouree Sharon Knight ALP5.8%
Fairly safe
Geelong Christine Couzens ALP6.0%
Buninyong Geoff Howard ALP6.4%
Niddrie Ben Carroll ALP7.7%
Oakleigh Steve Dimopoulos ALP8.2%
Essendon Danny Pearson ALP8.7%
Safe
Melton Don Nardella ALP11.2%
Keysborough Martin Pakula ALP11.9%
Bendigo West Maree Edwards ALP12.2%
Bundoora Colin Brooks ALP12.2%
Altona Jill Hennessy ALP12.6%
Dandenong Gabrielle Williams ALP12.9%
Footscray Marsha Thomson ALP14.5%
Tarneit Telmo Languiller ALP14.6%
Werribee Tim Pallas ALP15.7%
Clarinda Hong Lim ALP15.8%
Sydenham Natalie Hutchins ALP16.3%
Williamstown Wade Noonan ALP16.5%
Pascoe Vale Lizzie Blandthorn ALP16.8%
Lara John Eren ALP17.1%
St Albans Natalie Suleyman ALP17.5%
Yuroke Ros Spence ALP18.5%
Mill Park Lily D'Ambrosio ALP19.9%
Very safe
Kororoit Marlene Kairouz ALP20.0%
Preston Robin Scott ALP24.7%
Broadmeadows Frank McGuire ALP27.8%
Thomastown Bronwyn Halfpenny ALP28.4%
Coalition seats - 2014
SeatMemberPartyMargin
Marginal
Ripon Louise Staley LIB0.8%
Morwell Russell Northe NAT1.8%
South Barwon Andrew Katos LIB2.9%
Burwood Graham Watt LIB3.2%
Eildon Cindy McLeish LIB3.8%
Bass Brian Paynter LIB4.6%
Bayswater Heidi Victoria LIB4.6%
Mount Waverley Michael Gidley LIB4.6%
Forest Hill Neil Angus LIB4.8%
Caulfield David Southwick LIB4.9%
Ringwood Dee Ryall LIB5.1%
Box Hill Robert Clark LIB5.7%
Fairly safe
Sandringham Murray Thompson LIB7.3%
Hastings Neale Burgess LIB7.6%
Nepean Martin Dixon LIB7.6%
Ferntree Gully Nick Wakeling LIB7.8%
Mildura Peter Crisp NAT8.0% v IND
Rowville Kim Wells LIB8.4%
Hawthorn John Pesutto LIB8.6%
Gembrook Brad Battin LIB9.0%
Croydon David Hodgett LIB9.3%
Evelyn Christine Fyffe LIB9.6%
Benambra Bill Tilley LIB9.7%
Brighton Louise Asher LIB9.8%
Safe
Bulleen Matthew Guy LIB10.6%
Kew Tim Smith LIB10.6%
Polwarth Terry Mulder LIB10.6%
South-West Coast Denis Napthine LIB11.0%
Narracan Gary Blackwood LIB11.3%
Warrandyte Ryan Smith LIB11.6%
Mornington David Morris LIB12.6%
Euroa Steph Ryan NAT14.5%
Gippsland South Peter Ryan NAT15.7%
Malvern Michael O'Brien LIB16.3%
Ovens Valley Tim McCurdy NAT16.6%
Gippsland East Tim Bull NAT17.9%
Very safe
Lowan Emma Kealy NAT21.3%
Murray Plains Peter Walsh NAT22.4%
Crossbench seats - 2014
Prahran Sam Hibbins GRN0.4% v LIB
Melbourne Ellen Sandell GRN2.4% v ALP
Shepparton Suzanna Sheed IND2.6% v NAT
Northcote Lidia Thorpe GRN5.6% v ALP

Registered parties

At the close of nominations, there were 23 parties registered with the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC), of which 21 contested the election: [25]

Candidates and retiring MPs

Nominations of candidates opened on 31 October 2018. Nominations for party candidates closed on 8 November, and for independent candidates on 9 November.

A total of 887 candidates nominated for the election, down from 896 at the 2014 election. There were 507 candidates for the Legislative Assembly, the second-highest number on record, down from 545 in 2014. The 380 candidates for the Legislative Council was the highest number of upper house candidates in a Victorian election, up from 351 in 2014. [26]

Retiring MPs

Members who chose not to renominate are as follows:

Labor

Liberal

Independent

Disendorsed candidates

On 13 November, Neelam Rai, a Liberal candidate for Northern Metropolitan Region, withdrew her candidacy after the Herald Sun revealed that she was the director of an unregistered charity, No Hunger Australia. The Liberal Party also released a statement saying that Rai's nomination form for preselection had "failed to disclose a number of issues of relevance". [43]

On 15 November, the Liberal Party withdrew its endorsement of Meralyn Klein, their candidate for the marginal seat of Yan Yean, after footage emerged of her speaking in an anti-Muslim video produced by the Australian Liberty Alliance. Klein denied any association with the ALA, saying she had been interviewed about an incident where she had been assaulted several years earlier, and the footage had been provided to the ALA and edited into an anti-Muslim video. [44]

As ballot papers had already been printed, both Rai and Klein appeared as Liberal candidates. The Labor Party petitioned the Supreme Court to order the VEC to reprint the ballot papers with Klein's affiliation removed, [45] but the case was dismissed. [46]

On 22 November, two days before Election Day, the Greens ordered a then-unnamed candidate to withdraw from the campaign after an allegation of "serious sexual misconduct" was made. [47] The following day the party revealed the candidate in question was Dominic Phillips, candidate for the seat of Sandringham; he was stood down by the party. [48] As the ballot papers had already been printed, Phillips stood as the Greens candidate and won over 8% of the vote.

Issues

On 28 October both Labor and the Coalition launched their campaigns, with Labor making health, paramedics and improved ambulance response times a priority, while the Coalition focused on cutting taxes, better managing population growth and cracking down on crime. [49] Labor and the Coalition pledged $23.3 billion and $24.8 billion respectively, more than double pledged during the 2010 and 2014 elections, excluding the proposed Suburban Rail Loop and high speed rail for regional services which would require future governments to fund. [50] Labor pledged to invest substantially more money than the Coalition in health, with $1.3bn in promises to boost nursing numbers and $395.8m to provide every state school student with free dental check-ups and procedures and $232m to build seven new early parenting centres; in contrast to the Coalition whose signature health policy was constructing a new hospital in Warragul, the biggest city in the rapidly expanding West Gippsland region. [51]

The Coalition's leading message of the campaign was to "get back in control" of the state's allegedly burgeoning crime problem. The party promised tougher bail conditions than Labor, saying that anyone who breaches bail will be jailed. In addition mandatory sentencing would become more commonplace, with minimum sentences for repeat violent offenders and people deemed possible terror threats could be forced to wear electronic monitoring devices, a proposal made after the stabbing attack in the city which occurred during the campaign. [51] The divisions between the parties over social issues were pronounced, as the Coalition promised to axe the safe injecting room in Richmond, the Safe Schools program for LGBTI children in state secondary schools and the process for a formalised treaty for Indigenous Victorians. [52] The Coalition also promised to reinstate religious instruction classes in state schools, something removed from classes and made an opt-in process by Labor. [51]

Arguably the most pressing issue of the campaign was public transport and infrastructure. Melbourne's record population growth of more than 125,000 people a year made both party leaders focus on big transport initiatives. Labor unveiled a $50 billion underground rail loop of the suburbs surrounding the city, though admitted the project would not be completed before 2050 and actually pledged $300 million for a business study. [51] The Coalition instead proposed a $19 billion "European-style" regional rail network that would rebuild the entire network and include high-speed rail on four lines, travelling up to 200 km an hour. [51] Both parties agreed on the West Gate Tunnel, North East Link and Metro Rail projects, though the Coalition pledged to bring back the defunct East West Link project which was scrapped at a cost of $1 billion by the Labor Government. [51]

Minor party the Greens sought to expand their numbers in parliament and make further gains in inner-city/suburban seats held by Labor such as Albert Park, Brunswick and Richmond. The party proposed a dedicated bike "superlane" stretching 17 kilometres from Elsternwick railway station to Coburg, as well as further cycling routes connecting Box Hill and Richmond, Ringwood and Croydon and a connection from the Burwood Highway through to Knox and Deakin University. [53] Overall, most Greens policies were more closely aligned with Labor policies than the Coalition, [51] a fact acknowledged by Greens leader Samantha Ratnam who said she would seek to negotiate with Labor to form government in the event of a hung parliament. [54] Labor leader Daniel Andrews reacted negatively to this possibility saying "no deal will be offered" and criticising the Greens for allegedly "refusing to call out denigration of women", in reference to past sexist comments made by the Greens candidate for the seat of Footscray, Angus McAlpine. [55]

The total number of people who voted early in the last two weeks of the campaign was 1,639,202, which made up 40% of the eligible voting population. [56]

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate data of voting intention from all opinion polling since the last election. A local regression trend is shown in a solid line.

Voting intention

Polling that is conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of over 1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±2.8 percentage points.

In the lead-up to the election, Poll aggregation site Poll Bludger placed the two-party-preferred vote for Labor at 53.5%, coupled with primary vote shares at 41.0% for Labor, 39.8% for the Liberal/National Coalition, and 11.1% for the Greens. [57] Election Analyst Antony Green stated on the ABC's election coverage that the result was "four to five percent better than all the opinion polls, which is the most out I've seen opinion polls in this country" [58]

The Liberal Party wrote in their campaign review that their data gathered in their internal research in marginal seats was "fundamentally wrong", which lead to resources and campaigners being diverted from marginal Liberal-held seats to "target "Labor" seats on the false assumption that "[the Liberal Party] had already won [Liberal held] seats". [59]

Legislative Assembly (lower house) polling
DateFirmPrimary vote TPP vote
ALPLIBNATGRNOTHALPL/NP
24 November 2018 election42.9%30.4%4.8%10.7%11.2%57.3%42.7%
24 November 2018YouGov-Galaxy (Exit Poll) [60] 41%38%*12%9%55%45%
23 November 2018Roy Morgan [61] 39%33%*13%15%54%46%
23 November 2018Newspoll [62] 41%40%*11%8%53.5%46.5%
21 November 2018uComms/ReachTEL [63] 38.7%35.9%*10.4%9.9%54%46%
21 November 2018YouGov [64] 40%40%*11%9%53%47%
14 November 2018ReachTEL [65] 40.4%36.8%*10.3%12.5%56%44%
24–28 Oct 2018Newspoll [66] 41%39%*11%9%54%46%
22–24 Oct 2018YouGov [67] 40%39%*12%9%53%47%
3 October 2018ReachTEL [68] 35.9%38.8%*10.9%14.4%52%48%
11–13 Sep 2018YouGov [69] 42%40%*53%47%
9 August 2018YouGov [70] 38%42%*10%10%51%49%
5 July 2018ReachTEL [71] 35.4%39.4%*10.5%14.7%51%49%
13–16 Apr 2018Newspoll [72] 38%41%*11%10%51%49%
Feb–Mar 2018Newspoll [73] 37%39%*11%13%52%48%
Oct–Dec 2017Essential [74] 38%43%*10%9%51%49%
6 December 2017Galaxy [75] 36%41%*10%12%50%50%
Jul–Sep 2017Essential [76] 39%42%*10%9%52%48%
17–18 Jun 2017Galaxy [77] 33%44%*8%14%47%53%
7 March 2017ReachTEL [78] 30.3%39.8%*8%15.7%46%54%
15–16 Feb 2017Galaxy [79] 37%41%*10%12%51%49%
Oct 2016Roy Morgan [80] 39%36%*13%12%56.5%43.5%
1 September 2016ReachTEL [81] 34.6%40.1%*10.7%51%49%
Aug 2016Roy Morgan [82] 37.5%36%*13.5%13.5%55.5%44.5%
Aug 2016ReachTEL [83] 35.0%42.7%*13.0%9.3%52%48%
Aug 2016Roy Morgan [84] 40.5%38%*13%8.5%56%44%
Mar 2016Roy Morgan [85] 40.5%39%*12%8.5%55%45%
Nov–Dec 2015 Roy Morgan [86] 40.5%38%*13%8.5%56%44%
Nov–Dec 2015 Newspoll [87] 39%38%5%12%6%52%48%
16 October 2015 Roy Morgan [88] 40%39%*14.5%6.5%55.5%44.5%
28–31 Aug 2015 Roy Morgan [89] 39%35.5%*16.5%9%57%43%
31 Jul-3 Aug 2015 Roy Morgan [90] 41%38%*14%7%56.5%43.5%
May–Jun 2015 Newspoll [87] 41%32%3%14%10%58%42%
27 May 2015 Roy Morgan [91] 43.5%38.5%*12.5%5.5%56.5%43.5%
10–13 Apr 2015 Roy Morgan [92] 41%40%*11.5%7.5%54%46%
13–15 Mar 2015 Roy Morgan [93] 43%38%*11.5%7.5%56%44%
14–16 Feb 2015 Roy Morgan [94] 41.5%39.5%*11.5%7.5%54.5%45.5%
16–18 Jan 2015 Roy Morgan [95] 45%35%*11.5%8.5%59%41%
4 December 2014 Matthew Guy becomes Liberal leader and leader of the opposition
29 November 2014 election 38.1%36.5%5.5%11.5%8.4%52.0%48.0%
25–28 Nov 2014 Ipsos [96] 35%42%*15%8%52%48%
24–27 Nov 2014 Newspoll 39%36%4%12%9%52%48%
27 November 2014ReachTEL [97] 38.3%34.5%5.2%13.5%8.5%52%48%
26–27 Nov 2014Roy Morgan [98] 36%44%*13.5%6.5%50%50%
25–26 Nov 2014 Galaxy [99] 39%40%*13%8%52%48%
7–24 Nov 2014Essential [100] 39%40%*13%8%52%48%
* Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian . [101]

Preferred Premier and satisfaction

Opinion polls conducted for preferred premier
Better Premier and satisfaction polling*
DateFirmBetter PremierAndrewsGuy
Andrews Guy SatisfiedDissatisfiedSatisfiedDissatisfied
24–28 Oct 2018Newspoll [102] 45%29%45%40%31%46%
22–24 Oct 2018YouGov [67] not asked44%35%24%42%
7 October 2018ReachTEL [103] 51.3%48.7%not asked
11–13 Sep 2018YouGov [104] not asked40%42%25%44%
9 August 2018YouGov [105] 40%33%not asked
5 July 2018ReachTEL [71] 50.6%49.4%not asked
13–16 Apr 2018Newspoll [72] 41%34%43%47%32%45%
Feb–Mar 2018Newspoll [73] 41%30%46%41%36%37%
6 December 2017Galaxy [106] 41%25%not asked
17–18 Jun 2017Galaxy [77] 41%29%not asked
7 March 2017ReachTEL [78] 29.6%34.7%not asked
Oct 2016 Roy Morgan [80] 59%41%not asked
1 September 2016ReachTEL [81] 49%51%not asked
May 2016 Roy Morgan [86] 63.5%36.5%not asked
Nov–Dec 2015 Newspoll [87] 43%26%43%39%27%40%
16 October 2015 Roy Morgan 63.5%36.5%not asked
31 Jul-3 Aug 2015 Roy Morgan [90] 64%36%not asked
25–28 Nov 2014 Newspoll [87] 48%24%51%32%35%29%
10–13 Apr 2015 Roy Morgan [91] 63%37%not asked
10–13 Apr 2015 Roy Morgan [92] 59.5%40.5%not asked
13–15 Mar 2015 Roy Morgan [93] 62.5%37.5%not asked
14–16 Feb 2015 Roy Morgan [94] 62.5%37.5%not asked
16–18 Jan 2015 Roy Morgan [95] 66.5%33.5%not asked
4 December 2014 Guy replaces NapthineAndrews Napthine AndrewsNapthine
29 November 2014 election
25–28 Nov 2014 Ipsos [96] 42%44%42%43%49%40%
24–27 Nov 2014 Newspoll 37%41%38%43%41%45%
26–27 Nov 2014Roy Morgan [98] 49.5%50.5%not asked
25–26 Nov 2014Galaxy [99] 38%41%not asked
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
† Participants were forced to choose.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian . [101]

Newspaper endorsements

Daily newspapers Sunday newspapers Alternative newspapers
NewspaperEndorsementNewspaperEndorsementNewspaperEndorsement
The Age Labor [107] The Sunday Age Labor [108] Green Left Weekly Socialists [109]
The Australian Liberal [110]
The Australian Financial Review Labor [111]
Herald Sun Liberal [112] Sunday Herald Sun Liberal [113]

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