2018 Tasmanian state election

Last updated

2018 Tasmanian state election
Flag of Tasmania.svg
←  2014 3 March 2018 2021  →
All 25 seats in the Tasmanian House of Assembly
13 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 First partySecond partyThird party
  Will Hodgman apples cropped.jpg Rebecca White in Hobart (April 2021) (cropped) 2.jpg Cassy-Oconnor-2017-Ross.png
Leader Will Hodgman Rebecca White Cassy O'Connor
Party Liberal Labor Greens
Leader since30 March 200617 March 201712 June 2015
Leader's seat Franklin Lyons Denison
Last election15 seats; 51.22%7 seats; 27.33%3 seats; 13.83%
Seats won13 seats10 seats2 seats
Seat changeDecrease2.svg 2Increase2.svg 3Decrease2.svg 1
Popular vote168,303109,26434,491
Percentage50.26%32.63%10.30%
SwingDecrease2.svg 0.96Increase2.svg 5.30Decrease2.svg 3.53
2018 Tasmanian state election.svg
Election results and largest party by first preference by division
Premier before election

Will Hodgman
Liberal

Elected Premier

Will Hodgman
Liberal

The 2018 Tasmanian state election was held on 3 March 2018 to elect all 25 members of the Tasmanian House of Assembly.

Contents

The four-year incumbent Liberal government, led by Premier Will Hodgman, won a second consecutive term. It defeated the Labor Party, led by Opposition Leader Rebecca White, and the Greens, led by Cassy O'Connor. The Jacqui Lambie Network also competed in a state election for the first time, though the party did not win any seats and its leader Jacqui Lambie did not stand for election.

The Tasmanian House of Assembly (the lower house) has five divisions with five members each for a total of 25 seats, 13 of which are required for a majority. The divisions correspond in name and boundaries to the five federal electorates for the House of Representatives. The election was conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission using the Hare-Clark electoral system; five candidate are declared elected once each of them reach 16.7% (one-sixth) of the total formal vote during counting.

House of Assembly elections are not tied to the election dates for the Legislative Council (the upper house), which occur in May each year for two or three of the 15 divisions, completing a fixed periodic cycle over six years.

Ultimately, the Liberals suffered a two-seat swing, but were able to hold on to a one-seat majority of 13 seats. It was the first time in 22 years that a Liberal government won a second consecutive term in Tasmania, and the first time since 1986 and only the second time since 1931 that an incumbent conservative government was reelected with an overall majority. It was also the first time a state parliamentary assembly in Australia elected a majority of female members, with thirteen women and twelve men. [1]

Results

Summary of the Results of the 2018 Tasmanian state election, House of Assembly [2]
2018 TAS House of Assembly.svg
PartyVotes%+/–Seats+/–
Liberal 168,30350.26Decrease2.svg 0.9613Decrease2.svg 2
Labor 109,26432.63Increase2.svg 5.3010Increase2.svg 3
Greens 34,49110.30Decrease2.svg 3.532Decrease2.svg 1
Jacqui Lambie Network 10,5793.16Increase2.svg 3.160Steady2.svg
Shooters, Fishers, and Farmers 7,6402.28Increase2.svg 2.280Steady2.svg
Tasmanians 4 Tasmania 9850.29Increase2.svg 0.290Steady2.svg
Independents 3,6091.08Decrease2.svg 0.200Steady2.svg
Total334,871100.00–25–
Valid votes334,87195.09
Invalid/blank votes17,3094.91Increase2.svg 0.11
Total votes352,180100.00–
Registered voters/turnout381,18392.39Decrease2.svg 2.15

Primary vote percentages by division

BassBraddonDenisonFranklinLyons
Labor Party 26.40%27.29%41.85%34.37%32.95%
Liberal Party 58.81%56.08%37.70%48.40%50.55%
Tasmanian Greens 9.28%3.57%17.53%14.36%6.53%
Other5.51%13.05%2.91%2.89%9.97%

Current distribution of seats

Date

Under section 23 of the Constitution Act 1934, terms in the Tasmanian House of Assembly end a maximum of four years from the return of the writs following the previous election, in this case 29 March 2014. The election date is not fixed and can be called at any time with the agreement of the Governor of Tasmania, representing the Crown. The Electoral Act 2004 governs the process of requesting elections. [3] [4] The Governor may then issue writs between five and ten days after the Premier of Tasmania requests an election. [5] Candidate nominations must close on a date seven to 21 days after the issuance of the Governor's writ, [6] and polling day must be a Saturday between 15 and 30 days after candidate nominations close. [7] Accordingly, if the lower house had run to its maximum term in 2018, then the Saturday election date would have been between 28 April and 19 May inclusive. [3] However, on 28 January 2018, Premier Will Hodgman visited the Governor to request issue of writs for an election on 3 March 2018. [8]

Background

The results of the previous election saw a substantial swing to the Liberal Party led by Will Hodgman, defeating the then Labor government led by Lara Giddings, which had governed in majority together with the Greens until shortly before the election. The 2014 election saw the Labor party reduced to seven seats and the Greens reduced to three seats in the Assembly.

Following the loss, Giddings resigned as leader of the Labor Party and was replaced by then opposition Deputy Premier Bryan Green. He subsequently resigned from opposition leadership on 17 March 2017, and Rebecca White was elected Labor leader unopposed. [9] Aside from the Liberals, Labor and Greens, the Jacqui Lambie Network, formed in 2015, fielded several candidates in 2018 and was considered a chance to pick up seats, [10] although they failed to do so. [11] The two other minor parties contesting the 2018 election were the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party and the newly formed T4T – Tasmanians 4 Tasmania. [12]

Campaign

With polls showing that the Greens and Jacqui Lambie Network were polling well, there was speculation that the Liberals could lose their majority. Nonetheless, Hodgman was adamant that he would only govern if the Liberals retained their majority, saying, "We will govern alone or not at all." [13]

The Labor party ran on a policy that claimed it would make Tasmania the first state in the country to remove poker machines from pubs and clubs. [14] During the 2018 campaign Federal Group, the largest operator of gaming venues in Tasmania, admitted to supporting its employees campaigning on a pro-pokie platform. [15] Opposition Labor Leader Rebecca White claimed the Liberal Party outspent the Labor election campaign by a factor of 5 to 1. [16]

Whilst the disclosure of political donations in Tasmania is required annually, and donations below $13,000 don't have to be reported, there were widespread calls for greater transparency in campaign spending in the lead up to the 2018 election. Federal Group had no applicable disclosed donations to the Tasmanian Liberal Party in the applicable yearly period prior to the election (2016–2017). [17] However more recent donations prior to the election date are not required to be disclosed by the Australian Electoral Commission until FYE 2017–18. These disclosures showed that the gambling industry donated over $400,000 to the Liberal Party. [18]

On the day before the election, 2 March 2018, it was revealed that the Liberal Party had tried to push through a plan to soften the state's gun laws, to benefit farm workers and sporting shooters. [19]

Retiring MPs

Liberal

Labor

Polling

Polling is regularly conducted for Tasmanian state politics by Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS). The sample size for each EMRS poll is 1,000 Tasmanian voters. [23] Polling is also conducted irregularly by MediaReach, ReachTEL and Roy Morgan Research, the latter with sample sizes of typically a few hundred voters. [24] The sample size for ReachTEL's 24 February 2018 poll was 3,179. [25]

Graphical summary

Graphical summary of primary voting opinion polls.
Graphical summary of Better Premier polling.
House of Assembly (lower house) polling
FirmPolitical parties
LIB ALP GRN JLN ONP IND/OTH
27 February 2018EMRS [26] 46%34%12%4%-3%
24 February 2018ReachTEL [25] 48.0%32.2%12.5%5.4%–2.1%
January 2018MediaReach [note 1]

[27] [28]

41.1%34.3%12.8%6.2%-5.6%
December 2017EMRS [29] 34%34%17%8%–6%
August 2017EMRS [30] 37%34%16%5%-7%
May 2017EMRS [31] 39%34%15%–3%9%
March 2017EMRS [32] 35%29%19%-6%11%
November 2016ReachTEL [33] 45.5%30.9%15.1%––8.5%
November 2016EMRS [32] 40%28%18%--11%
October 2016Morgan39%33%16%––12%
August 2016EMRS41%31%15%--13%
August 2016Morgan37.5%36%15.5%––11%
July 2016EMRS37%32%17%--14%
May 2016EMRS41%29%21%––9%
May 2016Morgan41%34.5%17%--7.5%
March 2016Morgan40%33%21.5%––5.5%
February 2016EMRS [32] 46%27%18%--9%
November 2015EMRS48%25%20%––7%
August 2015EMRS40%29%21%--9%
May 2015EMRS46%29%19%––6%
February 2015EMRS42%34%15%1%1-8%
November 2014EMRS42%31%19%2%1–6%
August 2014EMRS46%33%16%2%1-4%
May 2014EMRS48%25%21%3%1–3%
2014 election 51.2%27.3%13.8%5.0%1-1.3%
Feb 2014EMRS44%20%15%5%1–3%
Polling conducted by EMRS.
1 Palmer United Party (PUP)
Preferred Premier polling^
Liberal
Hodgman		Labor
White
January 201848.0%41.4%
August 201737%48%
May 2017 [31] 42%39%
March 201752%20%1
November 2016 [34] 59.8%40.2%1
October 201655.5%44.5%1
July 201648%25%1
February 201652%21%1
November 201556%19%1
August 201549%21%1
May 201552%24%1
February 201548%26%1
November 201450%22%1
August 201451%25%1
May 201454%22%1
2014 election
Feb 201448%21%2
Polling conducted by EMRS.
^ Remainder were "uncommitted".
1 Bryan Green.
2 Lara Giddings.
  1. ↑ Tasmanian Liberal Party internal poll, sample size 3000

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tasmanian Greens</span> Political party in Australia

The Tasmanian Greens are a political party in Australia which developed from numerous environmental campaigns in Tasmania, including the flooding of Lake Pedder and the Franklin Dam campaign. They form a part of the Australian Greens.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2006 Tasmanian state election</span>

An election for the House of Assembly was held in the Australian state of Tasmania on 18 March 2006, the same day as the South Australian elections. The Labor Party led by Premier Paul Lennon, won a third successive majority government term in office, despite predictions the election would result in a minority government. Although there was a small swing against Labor, they finished with 14 seats, and there were no changes in the party composition of the assembly. The Liberal Party led by Rene Hidding gained a small swing and finished with seven seats. The Tasmanian Greens led by Peg Putt suffered a small swing and finished with four seats; meaning no change in seat representation since the last election. Had the Greens lost one of their four seats, they would have lost their status as a major party and would lose financial resources, offices and support staff.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Will Hodgman</span> 45th Premier of Tasmania, Australia

William Edward Felix Hodgman is an Australian diplomat and former politician who has been the High Commissioner of Australia to Singapore since February 2021. He was the 45th Premier of Tasmania and a member for the Division of Franklin in the Tasmanian House of Assembly from the 2002 state election until his resignation in January 2020. He became premier following the 2014 state election, having been Leader of the Opposition since 2006. He was re-elected to a second term in government following victory in the 2018 state election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">David Bartlett</span> 43rd Premier of Tasmania, Australia

David John Bartlett is an Australian former politician in the state of Tasmania, serving as the 43rd Premier of Tasmania from May 2008 until January 2011. He was a Labor Party member of the Tasmanian House of Assembly seat of Denison from 2004 to 2011 when he retired.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2004 Australian Capital Territory general election</span>

Elections to the Australian Capital Territory Legislative Assembly were held on Saturday, 16 October 2004. The incumbent Labor Party, led by Jon Stanhope, was challenged by the Liberal Party, led by Brendan Smyth. Candidates were elected to fill three multi-member electorates using a single transferable vote method, known as the Hare-Clark system. The result was a clear majority of nine seats in the 17-member unicameral Assembly for Labor. It marked the first and so far only time in the history of ACT self-government that one party was able to win a majority in its own right. Stanhope was elected Chief Minister at the first sitting of the sixth Assembly on 4 November 2004. The election was conducted by the ACT Electoral Commission and was the second time in Australia's history that an electronic voting and counting system was used for some, but not all, polling places, expanding on the initial trial of the system at the 2001 ACT election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Cassy O'Connor</span> Australian politician

Cassandra Stanwell O'Connor is an Australian politician, who was a Tasmanian Greens member of the Tasmanian House of Assembly from 2008 to 2023, representing the electorate of Division of Denison which was renamed to Clark in September 2018.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2010 Tasmanian state election</span>

The 2010 Tasmanian state election was held on 20 March 2010 to elect members to the Tasmanian House of Assembly. The 12-year incumbent Labor government, led by Premier of Tasmania David Bartlett, won a fourth consecutive term against the Liberal opposition, led by Will Hodgman, after Labor formed a minority government with the support of the Greens.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 Tasmanian state election</span>

The 2014 Tasmanian state election was held on 15 March 2014 to elect all 25 members to the House of Assembly. The 16-year incumbent Labor government, led by the Premier of Tasmania Lara Giddings, sought to win a fifth consecutive term in government, but was defeated by the Liberal opposition, led by Opposition Leader Will Hodgman, in a landslide victory. Also contesting the election was the Greens led by Nick McKim. The Palmer United Party made a significant effort in the election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">United Australia Party (2013)</span> Political party in Australia

The United Australia Party (UAP), formerly known as Clive Palmer's United Australia Party and the Palmer United Party (PUP), is an Australian political party formed by mining magnate Clive Palmer in April 2013. The party was deregistered by the Australian Electoral Commission in 2017, revived and re-registered in 2018, and voluntarily deregistered in 2022. The party fielded candidates in all 150 House of Representatives seats at the 2013 federal election. Palmer, the party's leader, was elected to the Division of Fairfax and it reached a peak of three senators following the rerun of the Western Australian senate election in 2014. When the party was revived under its original name in 2018, it was represented by ex-One Nation senator Brian Burston in the federal parliament.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Jacqui Lambie</span> Australian politician (born 1971)

Jacquiline Louise Lambie is an Australian politician who is the leader and founder of the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN). She is a Senator for Tasmania since 2019, and was previously a Senator from 2014 to 2017.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2018 South Australian state election</span>

The 2018 South Australian state election to elect members to the 54th Parliament of South Australia was held on 17 March 2018. All 47 seats in the House of Assembly or lower house, whose members were elected at the 2014 election, and 11 of 22 seats in the Legislative Council or upper house, last filled at the 2010 election, were contested. The record-16-year-incumbent Australian Labor Party (SA) government led by Premier Jay Weatherill was seeking a fifth four-year term, but was defeated by the opposition Liberal Party of Australia (SA), led by Opposition Leader Steven Marshall. Nick Xenophon's new SA Best party unsuccessfully sought to obtain the balance of power.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2017 Queensland state election</span>

The 2017 Queensland state election was held on 25 November 2017 to elect all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly of Queensland, the unicameral Parliament of Queensland.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2019 Australian federal election</span> Election for the 46th Parliament of Australia

The 2019 Australian federal election was held on Saturday 18 May 2019 to elect members of the 46th Parliament of Australia. The election had been called following the dissolution of the 45th Parliament as elected at the 2016 double dissolution federal election. All 151 seats in the House of Representatives and 40 of the 76 seats in the Senate were up for election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 Australian Senate election</span> Australian federal election results

The 2016 Australian federal election in the Senate was part of a double dissolution election held on Saturday 2 July to elect all 226 members of the 45th Parliament of Australia, after an extended eight-week official campaign period. It was the first double dissolution election since the 1987 election and the first under a new voting system for the Senate that replaced group voting tickets with optional preferential voting.

The Tasmanian Liberal Party, officially known as the Liberal Party of Australia (Tasmanian Division) and more simply as the Tasmanian Liberals, is the state division of the Liberal Party of Australia in Tasmania. The party currently governs in Tasmania as the only Liberal government in Australia, either state or territory, or Federal level. The party is part of the federal Liberal Party of Australia, currently in opposition.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2021 Tasmanian state election</span>

The 2021 Tasmanian state election was held on 1 May 2021 to elect all 25 members to the Tasmanian House of Assembly.

Steven Leigh Martin is an Australian politician who was a Senator for Tasmania from February 2018 to June 2019, when he lost his seat at the 2019 federal election. Martin was declared elected to the Senate on a recount when Jacqui Lambie was caught up in the parliamentary eligibility crisis. He took his seat as an independent, before joining the National Party in May 2018 as its first Tasmanian member since the 1920s. He was previously the mayor of the City of Devonport from 2011 to 2018.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tasmanian National Party</span> Political party in Australia

The Tasmanian Nationals are a political party in the Australian state of Tasmania, aligned with the National Party of Australia. The party is not currently registered with the Tasmanian Electoral Commission, and is not separately registered with the Australian Electoral Commission, unlike the other state branches of the Nationals.

The Tasmanian Labor Party, officially known as the Australian Labor Party (Tasmanian Branch) and commonly referred to simply as Tasmanian Labor, is the Tasmanian branch of the Australian Labor Party. It has been one of the most successful state Labor parties in Australia in terms of electoral success.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Next Tasmanian state election</span>

The next Tasmanian state election is scheduled to be held on or before Saturday 28 June 2025 to elect all 35 members to the House of Assembly.

References

  1. ↑ "Tasmania first state to return female-majority parliament". ABC News. 16 March 2018. Retrieved 16 March 2018.
  2. ↑ "2018 House of Assembly Results". Tasmanian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 3 March 2018.
  3. 1 2 "'So when is the next election?'". Aph.gov.au. 1 September 2016. Retrieved 28 September 2017.
  4. ↑ "2013/2014 Tasmanian Electoral Commission Annual Report" (PDF). Tasmanian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original (PDF) on 1 July 2015. Retrieved 28 June 2015.
  5. ↑ Electoral Act 2004, section 63.
  6. ↑ Electoral Act 2004, section 69.
  7. ↑ Electoral Act 2004, section 70.
  8. ↑ "Tasmanian election: Premier confirms state will go to polls on March 3". ABC News. 29 January 2018.
  9. ↑ "Green out, White in for Tasmanian Labor, the ABC understands". ABC News. 17 March 2017. Retrieved 17 March 2017.
  10. ↑ "Jacqui Lambie looming large over 2018 Tasmanian election, as Liberals, Labor neck and neck". ABC News. 7 December 2017.
  11. ↑ Willard, Jessica (3 March 2018). "Lambie concedes defeat, says 'trust and integrity' will prevail". The Advocate. Retrieved 4 March 2018.
  12. ↑ Tasmanian Electoral Commission. "Parties currently registered under the Electoral Act 2004" . Retrieved 2 February 2018.
  13. ↑ Wahlquist, Calla (27 January 2018). "Tasmania election: Will Hodgman says Liberals will 'govern alone or not at all'". the Guardian. Retrieved 2 February 2018.
  14. ↑ Morton, Adam (2 March 2018). "Tasmania election: Liberals are odds-on favourites after Labor's pokies gamble". The Guardian.
  15. ↑ "Tasmanian poker machine licence holder Federal Group joins pro-pokies campaign". ABC News. 6 February 2018.
  16. ↑ "Tasmanian election: Big-budget Liberal Party and backers dominate ad campaign". ABC News. 28 February 2018.
  17. ↑ "Summary of Donations reported by Donors – By Party – 2016–17". Archived from the original on 20 September 2017. Retrieved 18 March 2018.
  18. ↑ "Dirty money - the real story behind Liberal state election win". 31 January 2019.
  19. ↑ "Tasmanian Liberals deny 'watering down' gun laws with proposed changes". ABC News (Australia) . 2 March 2018. Retrieved 3 March 2018.
  20. ↑ "Tasmanian Attorney-General Matthew Groom stepping down from politics". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 23 September 2017.
  21. ↑ Wisbey, Michelle (14 May 2017). "Lara Giddings to step away from politics". The Examiner. Retrieved 15 May 2017.
  22. ↑ Hansen, Ben. "TONIGHT: @WINNews_Tas speaks with David Llewellyn after he announced he's stepping down from politics after 28 years. Details 6pm. #politas". WIN News. Retrieved 15 May 2017.
  23. ↑ EMRS.com.au website.
  24. ↑ , Roy Morgan Research, "Baird Government drops behind for first time in NSW while Palaszczuk consolidates lead in Queensland and ALP preferred in Tasmania", 10 October 2016.
  25. 1 2 "ReachTEL: Liberal 46, Labor 31, Greens 12 in Tasmania". The Poll Bludger. 24 February 2018. Retrieved 24 February 2018.
  26. ↑ "Tasmania 2018: EMRS Has It A Little Closer Than ReachTEL". Dr. Kevin Bonham's Blog. 27 February 2018. Retrieved 27 February 2018.
  27. ↑ "Liberals talk up chances with release of party-funded poll results". ABC News (Australia) . 17 January 2018. Retrieved 23 February 2018.
  28. ↑ "New Commissioned Tasmanian Polls". Dr. Kevin Bonham's Blog. 18 January 2018.
  29. ↑ "State Voting Intentions Poll: EMRS December 2017" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 29 January 2018. Retrieved 28 January 2018.
  30. ↑ "State Voting Intentions Poll: EMRS August 2017" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 29 January 2018. Retrieved 28 January 2018.
  31. 1 2 "State Voting Intentions Poll: EMRS May 2017" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 29 September 2017. Retrieved 28 September 2017.
  32. 1 2 3 "State Voting Intentions Poll: EMRS March 2017" (PDF). 6 March 2017. Archived from the original (PDF) on 23 February 2018. Retrieved 23 February 2018.
  33. ↑ , William Bowe, "State polling miscellany", November 2015.
  34. ↑ , Matt Smith, "Green, White, Bacon, Giddings? Exclusive polling reveals who Tasmanians think should lead the Labor party, Townsville Bulletin (online), 18 November 2016

Notes

    This page is based on this Wikipedia article
    Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
    Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.