2018 Mayo by-election

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2018 Mayo by-election
Flag of Australia (converted).svg
←  2016 28 July 2018 (2018-07-28) 2019  →
The Division of Mayo (SA) in the House of Representatives
Registered107,554
Turnout85.52% Decrease2.svg 8.67
 First partySecond party
  Rebekha Sharkie House.jpg Liberal Placeholder.png
Candidate Rebekha Sharkie Georgina Downer
Party Centre Alliance Liberal
Popular vote39,36933,219
Percentage44.37%37.44%
SwingIncrease2.svg 9.51Decrease2.svg 0.32
2CP 57.53%42.47%
2CP swing Increase2.svg 2.56Decrease2.svg 2.56
Division of MAYO 2016.png
MP before election

Rebekha Sharkie
Centre Alliance

Elected MP

Rebekha Sharkie
Centre Alliance

A by-election for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Mayo took place on Saturday 28 July 2018, following the resignation of incumbent Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie. [1]

Contents

In early counting, within an hour of the close of polls, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's psephologist Antony Green's electoral computer had predicted Sharkie to retain the electorate with an increased margin. [2]

The by-election occurred on the same day as four other by-elections for the House of Representatives, colloquially known as Super Saturday.

Background

Due to the High Court ruling against Senator Katy Gallagher on 9 May 2018 as part of the ongoing parliamentary eligibility crisis, Sharkie and three other MPs in the same situation announced their parliamentary resignations later that day, [1] while the Perth incumbent resigned for family reasons. [3] The Speaker announced on 24 May 2018 that he had scheduled the by-elections to occur on 28 July 2018. Popularly labelled "Super Saturday", the occurrence of five simultaneous federal by-elections is unprecedented in Australian political history. [4] The others are:

Liberal candidate Georgina Downer deleted her Twitter account on 13 June 2018, claiming that trolls had been attacking her with bad language, with counterclaims from Twitter users that she had deleted legitimate policy questions posted to her Facebook account. [5]

Historically, the rural seat of Mayo has been a comfortably safe Liberal seat in two-party terms, though over the past two decades, the Liberals in Mayo had been repeatedly left vulnerable by several strong election results from minor parties and independents. Mayo was represented by Liberal candidate Georgina Downer's father, Alexander Downer, for the first 24 years of Mayo's 34-year history. [6] Further back, others in the Downer family including a Premier of South Australia represented overlapping geographical areas, in the federal seat of Angas and the state seats of Barossa and Encounter Bay. [7] [8] [9]

Key dates

Key dates in relation to the by-election are: [10]

Candidates

Candidates (7) in ballot paper order [7]
PartyCandidateBackground
  Christian Democrats Tracey-Lee Cane Pastor [11]
  People Kelsie HarfoucheBeauty therapist and business owner [12]
  Greens Major SumnerHigh-profile Ngarrindjeri elder, Order of Australia recipient, community worker and activist [13]
  Liberal Georgina Downer Lawyer, Institute of Public Affairs research fellow, former diplomat [14]
  Centre Alliance Rebekha Sharkie Previous MP for Mayo elected at the 2016 federal election [15]
  Liberal Democrats Stephen HumbleContested the 2012 Port Adelaide state by-election and the upper house at the 2018 state election [7]
  Labor Reg CouttsTelecommunications consultant and academic professor [16]

The Family First Party (now the Australian Conservatives) contested Mayo at the last election on 4.6% (−2.5%) but declined to contest the by-election. [17]

Polling

Mayo by-election polling
DateFirmCommissioned bySample Primary vote TCP vote
CALIBALPGRNOTHUNDCALIB
23 July 2018 YouGov−Galaxy The Advertiser [18] 54047%35%9%7%2%−59%41%
21 June 2018 ReachTEL Australia Institute [19] 73643.5%32.7%8.2%9.0%4.1%2.6%62%38%
7 June 2018 YouGov−Galaxy The Advertiser [20] 51544%37%11%6%2%2%58%42%
5 June 2018 ReachTEL Australia Institute [21] 103140.1%34.4%7.7%10.7%3.5%3.6%58%42%
2016 election 34.9%37.8%13.5%8.1%5.8%55.0%45.0%

Results

Mayo by-election: 28 July 2018 [22] [23]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Centre Alliance Rebekha Sharkie 39,36944.37+9.51
Liberal Georgina Downer 33,21937.44−0.32
Greens Major Sumner 7,8988.90+0.85
Labor Reg Coutts5,3706.05−7.47
Christian Democrats Tracey-Lee Cane1,3481.52+1.52
Liberal Democrats Stephen Humble8090.91−0.30
People's Party Kelsie Harfouche7160.81+0.81
Total formal votes88,72996.47−0.64
Informal votes3,2463.53+0.64
Turnout 91,97585.52−8.67
Two-party-preferred result
Liberal Georgina Downer 49,37555.65+0.30
Labor Reg Coutts39,35444.35−0.30
Two-candidate-preferred result
Centre Alliance Rebekha Sharkie 51,04257.53+2.56
Liberal Georgina Downer 37,68742.47−2.56
Centre Alliance hold Swing +2.56

See also

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References

  1. 1 2 "Four MPs, one senator gone as citizenship drama claims more victims". ABC News. 9 May 2018. Archived from the original on 29 November 2024. Retrieved 17 December 2024.
  2. ↑ "July 2018 Federal By-elections". abc.net.au. Archived from the original on 18 September 2024. Retrieved 17 December 2024.
  3. ↑ "Federal Member for Perth Tim Hammond quits politics for family, triggering WA by-election: ABC 2 May 2018". Archived from the original on 22 September 2018. Retrieved 29 June 2018.
  4. ↑ "Mark your calendars, the date has been set for five by-elections". ABC News. 24 May 2018. Archived from the original on 24 May 2018. Retrieved 24 May 2018.
  5. ↑ "Georgina Downer deletes Twitter account midway through Mayo campaign". ABC News. 13 June 2018. Archived from the original on 16 June 2018. Retrieved 17 June 2018.
  6. ↑ Grattan, Michelle (7 June 2018). "Liberals' Georgina Downer trailing in early Mayo poll". The Conversation Australia . Retrieved 10 June 2018.
  7. 1 2 3 "Mayo 2018 By-election". abc.net.au. Retrieved 17 December 2024.
  8. ↑ Hancock, I. R., "Sir Alexander Russell (Alick) Downer (1910–1981)", Australian Dictionary of Biography, Canberra: National Centre of Biography, Australian National University, retrieved 17 December 2024
  9. ↑ Bartlett, Peter, "Sir John William Downer (1843–1915)", Australian Dictionary of Biography, Canberra: National Centre of Biography, Australian National University, retrieved 17 December 2024
  10. ↑ "2018 Mayo by-election". Australian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 17 June 2018. Retrieved 17 June 2018.
  11. ↑ "Candidate details, 2018 Mayo by-election: AEC". Archived from the original on 11 September 2020. Retrieved 15 July 2018.
  12. ↑ "By-election 2018 endorsed South Australian candidates". Australian People's Party. Archived from the original on 10 July 2018. Retrieved 10 July 2018.
  13. ↑ "Major wildcard spices up Mayo poll". The Advertiser. Retrieved 17 December 2024.
  14. ↑ "Georgina Downer endorsed as Liberal candidate for Mayo ahead of by-election". ABC News. 14 May 2018. Archived from the original on 15 May 2018. Retrieved 14 May 2018.
  15. ↑ "Labor's quadruple edge in the citizenship by-elections: Candidates, time, history and money - ABC 10 May 2018". Archived from the original on 10 May 2018. Retrieved 17 May 2018.
  16. ↑ "NBN consultant Reg Coutts unveiled as Labor candidate for Mayo by-election". ABC. Adelaide. 7 June 2018. Archived from the original on 8 June 2018. Retrieved 9 June 2018.
  17. ↑ "Sharkie "doing a good job", says Labor's Mayo hopeful - InDaily". www.indaily.com.au. 7 June 2018. Archived from the original on 19 September 2023. Retrieved 17 December 2024.
  18. ↑ "Voters look set to entrench Sharkie in Mayo - InDaily". InDaily. 23 July 2018. Archived from the original on 23 July 2018. Retrieved 23 July 2018.
  19. ↑ "Longman and Mayo: New Polling on Company Tax Cuts and Voter Priorities for Government Revenue - The Australia Institute 24 June 2018". Archived from the original on 24 June 2018. Retrieved 24 June 2018.
  20. ↑ "By-elections and preselections: The Poll Bludger 8 June 2018". Archived from the original on 11 September 2020. Retrieved 9 June 2018.
  21. ↑ 5 June 2018 Mayo by-election polling: ReachTEL 6 June 2018
  22. ↑ "Mayo by-election results: AEC".
  23. ↑ "Mayo by-election results: ABC". Australian Broadcasting Corporation . Archived from the original on 12 July 2018. Retrieved 23 June 2018.
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