2018 Braddon by-election

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2018 Braddon by-election
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The Division of Braddon (Tas) in the House of Representatives
Registered73,670
Turnout90.38% Decrease2.svg 3.71
 First partySecond partyThird party
  Labor Placeholder.png Memorial-unveilings-Burnie-20150331-002-crop.jpg
IND
Candidate Justine Keay Brett Whiteley Craig Garland
Party Labor Liberal Independent
First preference vote23,21824,6456,633
Percentage36.98%39.26%10.57%
SwingDecrease2.svg 3.07Decrease2.svg 2.24Increase2.svg 10.57
TPP 52.31%47.69%
TPP swingIncrease2.svg 0.11Decrease2.svg 0.11
Division of BRADDON 2016.png
MP before election

Justine Keay
Labor

Elected MP

Justine Keay
Labor

A by-election for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Braddon took place on Saturday 28 July 2018, following the resignation of incumbent Labor MP Justine Keay. [1]

Contents

In early counting, within an hour of the close of polls, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's psephologist Antony Green's electoral computer had predicted Labor to retain the electorate. [2]

The by-election occurred on the same day as four other by-elections for the House of Representatives, colloquially known as Super Saturday.

Background

Due to the High Court ruling against Senator Katy Gallagher on 9 May 2018 as part of the ongoing parliamentary eligibility crisis, Keay and three other MPs in the same situation announced their parliamentary resignations later that day, [1] while the Perth incumbent resigned for family reasons. [3] The Speaker announced on 24 May 2018 that he had scheduled the by-elections to occur on 28 July 2018. Popularly labelled "Super Saturday", the occurrence of five simultaneous federal by-elections is unprecedented in Australian political history. [4] The others are:

A redistribution of the Tasmanian federal electoral divisions was completed in 2017, however by-elections are conducted under existing boundaries, as redistributed boundaries do not come into effect until the subsequent federal election. [5] [6]

Key dates

Key dates in relation to the by-election are: [7]

Candidates

Burnie City Council polling booth 2018 Braddon by-election polling at Burnie City Council 20180728-001.jpg
Burnie City Council polling booth
Candidates (8) in ballot paper order [8]
PartyCandidateBackground
  Greens Jarrod EdwardsIndigenous land management supervisor. [9]
  SFF Brett NealFarmer. [10]
  Independent Donna GibbonsRegistered nurse and small business owner. [8]
  Liberal Democrats Joshua BoagSheetmetal fabricator. Contested Braddon at the 2016 federal election. [8]
  Liberal Brett Whiteley One-term MP for Braddon elected at the 2013 federal election. [11]
  Independent Craig Garland Fisherman. Contested Braddon at the 2018 state election. [12]
  People Bruno StrangioHas managed numerous real estate and construction enterprises. [8]
  Labor Justine Keay Previous MP for Braddon elected at the 2016 federal election. [13]

Polling

Braddon by-election polling
DateFirmCommissioned bySample MoE Primary vote TPP vote
ALPLIBGRNOTHALPLIB
24−26 July 2018 Newspoll The Australian [14] 1002±3.1%40%43%5%12%51%49%
19 July 2018 ReachTEL Aus. Forest Products Assoc. [15] [16] 810±3.4%36.0%42.7%7.0%14.3%52%48%
2 June 2018 ReachTEL Sky News [17] >800±3.4%33%47%6%14%46%54%
2016 election 40.0%41.5%6.7%11.7%52.2%47.8%

Results

2018 Braddon by-election [18] [19]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Liberal Brett Whiteley 24,64539.26−2.24
Labor Justine Keay 23,21836.98−3.07
Independent Craig Garland 6,63310.57+10.57
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers Brett Neal2,9844.75+4.75
Greens Jarrod Edwards2,5184.01−2.73
Independent Donna Gibbons1,5332.44+2.44
Liberal Democrats Joshua Boag8281.32−0.81
People's Party Bruno Strangio4210.670.67
Total formal votes62,78094.29−0.48
Informal votes3,8045.71+0.48
Turnout 66,58490.38−3.71
Two-party-preferred result
Labor Justine Keay 32,84252.31+0.11
Liberal Brett Whiteley 29,93847.69−0.11
Labor hold Swing +0.11
Diagram of preference flows at the Braddon by-election Braddon by-election 2018 preference flow diagram.png
Diagram of preference flows at the Braddon by-election

See also

References

  1. 1 2 Yaxley, Louise (9 May 2018). "Citizenship drama flares again, with four MPs and one senator on the way out after High Court ruling". ABC News .
  2. ↑ Green, Antony. "July 2018 Federal By-elections". ABC News .
  3. ↑ "Federal Member for Perth Tim Hammond quits politics for family, triggering WA by-election". ABC News. 2 May 2018.
  4. ↑ Yaxley, Louise (24 May 2018). "Date set for by-elections in Perth, Fremantle, Mayo, Longman and Braddon". ABC News. Retrieved 24 May 2018.
  5. ↑ "2018 Braddon by-election - postal voting". AEC . Archived from the original on 12 June 2018. Retrieved 10 June 2018.
  6. ↑ "Tasmanian federal redistribution [2016]". AEC . Retrieved 10 June 2018.
  7. ↑ "2018 Braddon by-election". Australian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 17 June 2018.
  8. 1 2 3 4 Green, Antony. "2018 Braddon by-election guide". ABC News .
  9. ↑ Ford, Sean (8 June 2018). "Greens' Braddon candidate Jarrod Edwards wants big Newstart increase" . The Advocate . Fairfax Media. Retrieved 10 June 2018.
  10. ↑ "Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party announce Braddon by-election candidate". Tasmania Talks. Grant Broadcasters. 18 June 2018. Archived from the original on 18 June 2018. Retrieved 18 June 2018.
  11. ↑ "Liberals name Braddon by-election runner". SBS News . 12 May 2018.
  12. ↑ "Fishing identity enters race for by-election seat" . The Mercury . News Corp Australia. 2 July 2018. Retrieved 2 July 2018.
  13. ↑ Norman, Jane (10 May 2018). "Labor's quadruple edge in the citizenship by-elections: Candidates, time, history and money". ABC News.
  14. ↑ Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Longman and Braddon, 28 July 2018, retrieved 28 July 2018
  15. ↑ Labor's Justine Keay best placed in close Braddon race, new poll suggests, 21 July 2018, retrieved 22 July 2018
  16. ↑ Super Saturday YouGov Galaxy and ReachTEL polls: Poll Bludger 23 July 2018
  17. ↑ ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman, 3 June 2018, retrieved 3 June 2018
  18. ↑ 2018 Braddon by-election results: AEC
  19. ↑ 2018 Braddon by-election results: ABC
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