2012 Port Adelaide state by-election

Last updated

Port Adelaide, outlined in yellow, is a north-western metropolitan seat in Adelaide, South Australia. PortAdelaide11.png
Port Adelaide, outlined in yellow, is a north-western metropolitan seat in Adelaide, South Australia.

A by-election occurred in the South Australian House of Assembly seat of Port Adelaide on 11 February 2012. Labor's Susan Close won the seat on a 52.9 percent two-candidate-preferred (TCP) vote. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of former Deputy Premier, Treasurer and state Labor MHA Kevin Foley. [1]

Contents

Background

Foley and Mike Rann resigned from their parliamentary seats, which created twin by-elections for 11 February, the other being the 2012 Ramsay by-election. On two-party-preferred vote (TPP) margins of 12.8 and 18.0 points from the 2010 election, considered safe margins on the current pendulum, Labor would have likely retained both seats on the TPP vote based on unchanged statewide Newspoll since the previous election. In the lower house, 24 seats form a majority, the Labor government held 26 of 47 seats. If one or both seats had been lost, Labor would still have retained majority government. [2] [3] [4]

Foley was first elected as the member for the new north-western metropolitan seat of Hart at the 1993 election. Hart was mostly replaced with a recreated Port Adelaide ahead of the 2002 election, and Foley followed most of his constituents into the new seat. From Rann Labor's election to government in 2002 until 2011, Foley became the longest-serving Deputy Premier of South Australia and the third-longest-serving Treasurer of South Australia.

The last by-election was the 2009 Frome by-election, when another former Premier, Rob Kerin, retired from politics. The seat was narrowly won by an independent candidate.

Timeline

DateEvent
12 December 2011Kevin Foley resigned from the Parliament of South Australia. [1]
4 January 2012 Writs were issued by the Speaker of the House of Assembly to proceed with a by-election.
16 January 2012Enrolment on electoral rolls closed, with a total of 25,248 voters enrolled for the by-election. [5]
19 January 2012Candidate nominations closed and ballot order draw occurred, in line with s60(a) of the Electoral Act 1985. [6]
11 February 2012Polling day occurred between the hours of 8am and 6pm.
27 February 2012Writ returned before this date for formal result declaration.

Candidates

9 candidates in ballot paper order [7]
  Independent True Blue VoiceSue LawrieLiberal Party member, contested seat at previous election as the official Liberal Party candidate. [7] [8]
  Independent Ban Live Animal ExportsColin ThomasContested the federal Port Adelaide seat for the Greens in 2007 and the neighbouring state seat in 2010 as an independent. [7]
  Independent Communist AustraliaBob BritonEndorsed candidate of the unregistered Communist Party, who contested the neighbouring seat at previous election. [7] [9] [10]
  Democratic Labor Elizabeth PistorNo information available. [7]
  One Nation Grant CarlinRuns a horticultural business. [7] [11]
  Labor Susan Close Former Department for Environment and Natural Resources executive. [2] [7]
  SA Greens Justin McArthurStudent, environment officer and union board director at Adelaide University, and a radio producer. [7] [12]
  Independent for YouGary JohansonFormer Liberal Party member, and Mayor of Port Adelaide Enfield. [3] [7] [13]
  Liberal Democrats Stephen HumbleStudied electronic engineering at TAFE, communications engineer for a large corporation. [7] [14]

A record nine candidates nominated for the seat of Port Adelaide. The Liberal Party, Family First Party, and independent candidate Max James, who contested the previous election and gained a primary vote of 26.8 percent, 5.9 percent, and 11.0 percent respectively, did not contest the by-election. [7] [15]

Polling

Three opinion polls were conducted and released by the in-house polling group at The Advertiser, Adelaide's main newspaper:

Under instant runoff voting with voters' full preference allocation, on the above polling and without a Liberal candidate, it was possible for one of several candidates to win. On how-to-vote cards located on all polling booths at each polling place, Briton recommended preferences to the Greens and then Labor, the Greens recommended preferences to Labor, Thomas had a split ticket recommending Labor or Johanson, while the remaining party and independent candidates including Johanson generally recommended preferences between each other in varying order. The by-election was expected to be a close contest on both eliminated candidate preference flows and the final TCP vote. [7] [19] [20]

Result

Port Adelaide state by-election, 11 February 2012
PartyCandidateVotes%±
Labor Susan Close 8,21842.3–7.6
Independent for YouGary Johanson4,71724.3+24.3
Independent True Blue VoiceSue Lawrie2,93815.1+15.1
Liberal Democrats Stephen Humble1,4157.3+7.3
Greens Justin McArthur1,0965.6–0.6
Independent Ban Live Animal ExportsColin Thomas3141.6+1.6
Independent Communist AustraliaBob Briton2921.5+1.5
One Nation Grant Carlin2691.4+1.4
Democratic Labor Elizabeth Pistor1510.8+0.8
Total formal votes19,41092.8–3.8
Informal votes1,5057.2+3.8
Turnout 20,91582.8–10.4
Two-candidate-preferred result
Labor Susan Close 10,27752.9–9.8
Independent for YouGary Johanson9,13347.1+47.1
Labor hold Swing N/A

Labor retained the seat on a 52.9 percent TCP vote against Johanson, with a majority in seven of 11 polling places. Postal votes were included on 13 February, absentee and pre-poll votes were included on 14 February. Preference distributions occurred on 18 February. Results are final. [21] [22] [23] [24] [25]

Neither a TPP or TCP swing could be produced, as the 2010 result was between Labor and Liberal rather than Labor and independent with no Liberal candidate. An increase or decrease in margins in these situations cannot be meaningfully interpreted as swings. As explained by the ABC's Antony Green, when a major party does not contest a by-election, preferences from independents or minor parties that would normally flow to both major parties does not take place, causing asymmetric preference flows. Examples of this are the 2008 Mayo and 2002 Cunningham federal by-elections, with seats returning to TPP form at the next election. [26] This contradicted News Ltd claims of large swings and a potential Liberal Party win in Port Adelaide at the next election. [27] [28] At the 2014 election, Port Adelaide was Labor's 7th safest seat on a margin of over 10 percent. Johanson unsuccessfully contested the neighbouring seat of Lee at the 2014 election with a primary vote of 11.2 percent.

See also

Related Research Articles

Division of Mayo Australian federal electoral division

The Division of Mayo is an Australian electoral division located to the east and south of Adelaide, South Australia. Created in the state redistribution of 3 September 1984, the division is named after Helen Mayo, a social activist and the first woman elected to an Australian University Council. The 9,315 km² rural seat covers an area from the Barossa Valley in the north to Cape Jervis in the south. Taking in the Adelaide Hills, Fleurieu Peninsula and Kangaroo Island regions, its largest population centre is Mount Barker. Its other population centres are Aldgate, Bridgewater, Littlehampton, McLaren Vale, Nairne, Stirling, Strathalbyn and Victor Harbor, and its smaller localities include American River, Ashbourne, Balhannah, Brukunga, Carrickalinga, Charleston, Cherry Gardens, Clarendon, Crafers, Cudlee Creek, Currency Creek, Delamere, Echunga, Forreston, Goolwa, Gumeracha, Hahndorf, Houghton, Kersbrook, Kingscote, Langhorne Creek, Lobethal, Macclesfield, McLaren Flat, Meadows, Middleton, Milang, Mount Compass, Mount Pleasant, Mount Torrens, Mylor, Myponga, Normanville, Norton Summit, Oakbank, Penneshaw, Piccadilly, Port Elliot, Second Valley, Springton, Summertown, Uraidla, Willunga, Woodchester, Woodside, Yankalilla, and parts of Birdwood, Old Noarlunga and Upper Sturt.

2006 South Australian state election South Australian general election

The state election for the 51st Parliament of South Australia was held in the Australian state of South Australia on 18 March 2006, and was conducted by the independent State Electoral Office.

Greens South Australia South Australian political party

Australian Greens SA is a green political party located in the Australian state of South Australia. It is a member of the federation of the Australian Greens party.

The term swing refers to the extent of change in voter support, typically from one election or opinion poll to another, expressed as a positive or negative percentage point. For the Australian House of Representatives and the lower houses of the parliaments of all the states and territories except Tasmania and the ACT, Australia employs preferential voting in single-member constituencies. Under the full-preference instant-runoff voting system, in each seat the candidate with the lowest vote is eliminated and their preferences are distributed, which is repeated until only two candidates remain. While every seat has a two-candidate preferred (TCP) result, seats where the major parties have come first and second are commonly referred to as having a two-party-preferred (TPP) result. The concept of "swing" in Australian elections is not simply a function of the difference between the votes of the two leading candidates, as it is in Britain. To know the majority of any seat, and therefore the swing necessary for it to change hands, it is necessary to know the preferences of all the voters, regardless of their first preference votes. It is not uncommon in Australia for candidates who have comfortable leads on the first count to fail to win the seat, because "preference flows" go against them.

Two-party-preferred vote

In Australian politics, the two-party-preferred vote is the result of an election or opinion poll after preferences have been distributed to the highest two candidates, who in some cases can be independents. For the purposes of TPP, the Liberal/National Coalition is usually considered a single party, with Labor being the other major party. Typically the TPP is expressed as the percentages of votes attracted by each of the two major parties, e.g. "Coalition 50%, Labor 50%", where the values include both primary votes and preferences. The TPP is an indicator of how much swing has been attained/is required to change the result, taking into consideration preferences, which may have a significant effect on the result.

2010 South Australian state election South Australian general election

The 2010 South Australian state election elected members to the 52nd Parliament of South Australia on 20 March 2010. All seats in the House of Assembly or lower house, whose current members were elected at the 2006 election, and half the seats in the Legislative Council or upper house, last filled at the 2002 election, became vacant.

2008 Mayo by-election Australian federal by-election

The 2008 Mayo by-election was held for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Mayo, located in Adelaide, South Australia, on 6 September 2008, following the retirement of Liberal Party MP and former Liberal leader Alexander Downer. The by-election was held on the same day as the Lyne by-election, and the Western Australian state election.

2008 Lyne by-election Australian federal by-election

The 2008 Lyne by-election was held for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Lyne on 6 September 2008. This was triggered by the resignation of National Party MP Mark Vaile. The by-election was held on the same day as the Mayo by-election, and the Western Australian state election.

2009 Frome state by-election South Australian by-election

A by-election was held for the South Australian House of Assembly seat of Frome on 17 January 2009. This was triggered by the resignation of former Premier and state Liberal MHA Rob Kerin. The seat had been retained by the Liberals at the 2006 state election on a 3.4 per cent margin, and at the 2002 state election on an 11.5 per cent margin.

Geoffrey Graeme Brock is a South Australian politician, representing the seat of Frome in the South Australian House of Assembly as an independent since the 2009 Frome by-election. Following the 2014 election Brock was Minister for Regional Development and Minister for Local Government in the Weatherill Labor cabinet until it was defeated at the 2018 election.

2013 Western Australian state election

The 2013 Western Australian state election was held on Saturday 9 March 2013 to elect 59 members to the Legislative Assembly and 36 members to the Legislative Council. The Liberal Party won a majority of seats in the Legislative Assembly for the first time since the election of 1996, retaining government with 31 seats. The Labor Party won 21 seats and the National Party won 7 seats. In the Legislative Council, the Liberals won 17 of the 36 seats.

2014 South Australian state election South Australian general election

The 2014 South Australian state election elected members to the 53rd Parliament of South Australia on 15 March 2014, to fill all 47 seats in the House of Assembly and 11 of 22 seats in the Legislative Council. The 12-year-incumbent Australian Labor Party (SA) government, led by Premier Jay Weatherill, won its fourth consecutive four-year term in government, a record 16 years of Labor government, defeating the opposition Liberal Party of Australia (SA), led by Opposition Leader Steven Marshall.

2012 Australian Capital Territory general election

Elections to the Australian Capital Territory Legislative Assembly occurred on Saturday, 20 October 2012. The 11-year incumbent Labor Party, led by Chief Minister Katy Gallagher, won a fourth term over the main opposition Liberal Party, led by opposition leader Zed Seselja.

2012 Ramsay state by-election South Australian by-election

A by-election occurred in the South Australian House of Assembly seat of Ramsay on 11 February 2012. The seat was won by Labor candidate Zoe Bettison. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of former Premier and state Labor MHA Mike Rann.

A by-election was held for the Victorian Legislative Assembly seat of Melbourne on Saturday 21 July 2012. This was triggered by the resignation of former minister and state Labor MLA Bronwyn Pike which she announced on 7 May 2012.

2012 Heffron state by-election

A by-election occurred for the New South Wales Legislative Assembly seat of Heffron on Saturday 25 August 2012. This was triggered by the resignation of former Premier of New South Wales and state Labor MP Kristina Keneally which she announced on 23 June 2012. Labor easily retained the seat with an increased margin. Ron Hoenig received a 60 percent primary and 70 percent two-candidate preferred vote.

2018 South Australian state election South Australian general election

The 2018 South Australian state election to elect members to the 54th Parliament of South Australia was held on 17 March 2018. All 47 seats in the House of Assembly or lower house, whose members were elected at the 2014 election, and 11 of 22 seats in the Legislative Council or upper house, last filled at the 2010 election, were contested. The record-16-year-incumbent Australian Labor Party (SA) government led by Premier Jay Weatherill was seeking a fifth four-year term, but was defeated by the opposition Liberal Party of Australia (SA), led by Opposition Leader Steven Marshall. Nick Xenophon's new SA Best party unsuccessfully sought to obtain the balance of power.

2014 Fisher state by-election South Australian by-election

A by-election for the seat of Fisher in the South Australian House of Assembly was held on 6 December 2014. The by-election was triggered by the death of independent MP Bob Such on 11 October 2014. Originally elected to Fisher for the Liberal Party of Australia at the 1989 election, defeating the one-term Australian Labor Party MP Philip Tyler, Such left the party in 2000.

2015 North Sydney by-election

A by-election for the Australian House of Representatives seat of North Sydney was held on 5 December 2015 from 8 am to 6 pm AEDT.

SA-BEST, formerly known as Nick Xenophon's SA-BEST is a political party in South Australia. It was founded in 2017 by Nick Xenophon as a state-based partner to his Nick Xenophon Team party. In 2018, deputy leader of NXT Stirling Griff said that SA-Best is "a separate entity, a separate association, a separate party" from NXT.

References

  1. 1 2 Martin, Sarah (13 December 2011). "Date set for Port Adelaide by-election after Kevin Foley resigns". AdelaideNow . Retrieved 28 January 2011.
  2. 1 2 Wills, Daniel (6 November 2011). "Labor by-elections candidates confirmed". The Advertiser . Retrieved 28 January 2012.
  3. 1 2 3 Kelton, Greg (23 September 2011). "Polling shows Labor will hold Foley seat in a by-election". AdelaideNow. Retrieved 28 January 2012.
  4. Wills, Daniel (18 November 2011). "Labor soars on crest of a Jay curve". The Advertiser . Retrieved 28 January 2012.
  5. "Port Adelaide by-election candidates announced" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 24 April 2013. Retrieved 26 July 2012.
  6. Electoral Commission SA. "Port Adelaide election timetable". Archived from the original on 9 April 2013. Retrieved 28 January 2012.
  7. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Green, Antony. "2012 Port Adelaide by-election guide". ABC Elections. Retrieved 28 January 2012.
  8. "Liberal independent to contest by-election". ABC Online. 21 December 2011. Retrieved 28 January 2012.
  9. "Bob Briton to run in Port Adelaide by-election". Cpasa.blogspot.com. 15 December 2011. Retrieved 26 July 2012.
  10. "Communist Party to contest by-election". The Advertiser . 15 December 2011. Retrieved 28 January 2012.
  11. "One Nation website". Sa.onenation.com.au. Archived from the original on 18 February 2011. Retrieved 26 July 2012.
  12. "Justin MCARTHUR for Port Adelaide: SA Greens". Archived from the original on 15 February 2012. Retrieved 10 January 2012.
  13. "Port mayor looks to run against Foley". ABC Online. 23 February 2010. Retrieved 28 January 2012.
  14. "Stephen Humble Facebook profile". Facebook.com. 31 January 2010. Retrieved 26 July 2012.
  15. "Libs yet to decide on SA by-elections". NineMSN . 7 November 2011. Archived from the original on 14 July 2012. Retrieved 28 January 2012.
  16. Wills, Daniel (20 January 2012). "Female voters save Labor's seat". The Advertiser. Retrieved 28 January 2012.
  17. "Port Adelaide poll fear for Labor". Adelaidenow.com.au. 3 February 2012. Retrieved 26 July 2012.
  18. Crouch, Brad (4 February 2012). "The battle for Port heats up". Adelaidenow.com.au. Retrieved 26 July 2012.
  19. "Candidate "how-to-vote" preference cards for the 2012 Port Adelaide by-election" (PDF). Retrieved 26 July 2012.[ permanent dead link ]
  20. Williamson, Brett (6 February 2012). "Port Adelaide by-election may bring surprise result". Abc.net.au. Retrieved 26 July 2012.
  21. "2012 Port Adelaide by-election results". Ecsa.sa.gov.au. 18 February 2012. Archived from the original on 28 July 2012. Retrieved 26 July 2012.
  22. "Port Adelaide by-election preference distribution" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 9 April 2013. Retrieved 26 July 2012.
  23. "2012 Port Adelaide by-election results: Antony Green ABC". Abc.net.au. 20 February 2012. Retrieved 26 July 2012.
  24. "Port Adelaide and Ramsay by-elections live: Poll Bludger". Blogs.crikey.com.au. 11 February 2012. Retrieved 26 July 2012.
  25. Close call as Labor takes a hit in Port Adelaide: The Advertiser 12 February 2012
  26. "A Comment on the Size of the Port Adelaide Swing, Antony Green". Blogs.abc.net.au. 13 February 2012. Retrieved 26 July 2012.
  27. Editor, State (2 March 2012). "Port now a poll target for Liberals". Adelaidenow.com.au. Retrieved 26 July 2012.CS1 maint: extra text: authors list (link)
  28. Susan Close wins Port Adelaide for Labor but seat now marginal: The Australian 11 February 2012
    Labor Keeps Port Adelaide, Ramsay in South Australian by-elections: The Australian 12 February 2012
    By-election swings carry 'message for Labor': The Australian 13 February 2012