2010 South Australian state election

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2010 South Australian state election
Flag of South Australia.svg
  2006 20 March 2010 (2010-03-20) 2014  

All 47 seats in the South Australian House of Assembly
24 seats were needed for a majority
11 (of the 22) seats in the South Australian Legislative Council
 First partySecond partyThird party
  Mike Rann (smiling).jpg Isobel redmond crop.jpg
NAT
Leader Mike Rann Isobel Redmond Karlene Maywald
Party Labor Liberal National
Leader since5 November 19948 July 200911 October 1997
Leader's seat Ramsay Heysen Chaffey
(lost seat)
Last election28 seats15 seats1 seat
Seats won26 seats18 seats0
Seat changeDecrease2.svg2Increase2.svg3Decrease2.svg1
Popular vote367,480408,48210,279
Percentage37.47%41.65%1.05%
SwingDecrease2.svg7.75Increase2.svg7.68Decrease2.svg1.04
TPP 48.4%51.6%
TPP swingDecrease2.svg8.39Increase2.svg8.39

2010 South Australian state election - Vote Strength.svg
The left side map shows the first party preference by electorate. The right side map shows the final two-party preferred vote result by electorate.

Premier before election

Mike Rann
Labor

Elected Premier

Mike Rann
Labor

The 2010 South Australian state election elected members to the 52nd Parliament of South Australia on 20 March 2010. All seats in the House of Assembly or lower house, whose current members were elected at the 2006 election, and half the seats in the Legislative Council or upper house, last filled at the 2002 election, became vacant.

Contents

The incumbent centre-left Australian Labor Party government led by Premier Mike Rann was elected to a third four-year term over the opposition centre-right Liberal Party of Australia led by Leader of the Opposition Isobel Redmond. Labor's landslide 7.7 percent swing to a two-party-preferred vote of 56.8 percent at the 2006 election was reversed at this election with a swing of 8.4 percent, finishing with a two-party vote of 48.4 percent, however, Labor retained majority government with 26 of 47 seats, a net loss of two. Labor lost the inner metropolitan seats of Adelaide, Morialta and Norwood to the Liberals while Nationals SA member Karlene Maywald lost her rural seat of Chaffey to the Liberals. Independent Kris Hanna lost to the Labor candidate in Mitchell, independents Bob Such in Fisher and Geoff Brock in Frome retained their seats (the latter having won at the 2009 by-election), while independent candidate Don Pegler won Mount Gambier, replacing outgoing independent Rory McEwen. Jay Weatherill took over from Rann as Premier and Labor leader in October 2011.

In the upper house, both major parties won four seats each, with the last three to the SA Greens, Family First, and Dignity for Disability. The composition of the upper house therefore became eight Labor, seven Liberal, two Green, two Family First, two independent No Pokies, and one Dignity for Disability.

Like federal elections, South Australia has compulsory voting, uses full-preference instant-runoff voting in single member seats for the lower house and single transferable vote group voting tickets in the proportionally represented upper house. The election was conducted by the Electoral Commission of South Australia (ECSA), an independent body answerable to Parliament.

Results

Metropolitan seats Metro10.PNG
Metropolitan seats
Rural seats Rural10.PNG
Rural seats

House of Assembly

South Australian state election, 20 March 2010 [1]
House of Assembly
<< 20062014 >>

Enrolled voters1,093,316
Votes cast1,014,431 Turnout 92.78+0.47
Informal votes33,762Informal3.33–0.27
Summary of votes by party
PartyPrimary votes %SwingSeatsChange
  Liberal 408,48241.65+7.6818+ 3
  Labor 367,48037.47–7.7526– 2
  Greens 79,5358.11+1.6200
  Family First 52,7695.38–0.5000
  National 10,2791.05–1.040– 1
  Democrats 3,6820.38–2.5200
  Independent 46,1084.70+2.7330
 Other12,3341.26*00
Total980,669  47 
Two-party-preferred
  Labor 474,53548.39–8.39
  Liberal 506,13451.61+8.39
Popular vote
Liberal
41.65%
Labor
37.47%
Greens
8.11%
Family First
5.38%
Independents
4.70%
National
1.05%
Others
1.63%
Two-party-preferred vote
Liberal
51.61%
Labor
48.39%
Seats
Labor
55.32%
Liberal
38.30%
Independents
6.38%

Independents: Bob Such, Geoff Brock, Don Pegler

Seats changing hands

SeatPre-2010SwingPost-2010
PartyMemberMarginMarginMemberParty
Adelaide  Labor Jane Lomax-Smith 10.214.54.2 Rachel Sanderson Liberal 
Chaffey  Nationals SA Karlene Maywald 17.220.03.8 Tim Whetstone Liberal 
Mitchell  Independent Kris Hanna 0.6N/A2.1* Alan Sibbons Labor 
Morialta  Labor Lindsay Simmons 7.911.14.1 John Gardner Liberal 
Mount Gambier  Independent Rory McEwen 6.2*N/A0.4* Don Pegler Independent 
Norwood  Labor Vini Ciccarello 4.28.84.9 Steven Marshall Liberal 

Pendulum

The following Mackerras pendulum works by lining up all of the seats according to the percentage point margin post-election on a two-candidate-preferred basis. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent. [2]

Labor seats (26)
Marginal
Bright Chloë Fox ALP0.4%
Mitchell Alan Sibbons ALP2.1%
Newland Tom Kenyon ALP2.2%
Hartley Grace Portolesi ALP2.3%
Florey Frances Bedford ALP3.6%
Elder Pat Conlon ALP3.6%
Colton Paul Caica ALP4.0%
Mawson Leon Bignell ALP4.4%
Wright Jennifer Rankine ALP4.6%
Ashford Steph Key ALP4.8%
Light Tony Piccolo ALP5.3%
Fairly safe
Little Para Lee Odenwalder ALP6.7%
West Torrens Tom Koutsantonis ALP6.7%
Lee Michael Wright ALP7.1%
Torrens Robyn Geraghty ALP7.7%
Kaurna John Hill ALP8.6%
Safe
Reynell Gay Thompson ALP10.4%
Enfield John Rau ALP10.5%
Taylor Leesa Vlahos ALP11.1%
Giles Lyn Breuer ALP11.9%
Port Adelaide Kevin Foley ALP12.8%
Croydon Michael Atkinson ALP14.1%
Napier Michael O'Brien ALP15.8%
Cheltenham Jay Weatherill ALP16.1%
Playford Jack Snelling ALP16.2%
Ramsay Mike Rann ALP18.0%
Liberal seats (18)
Marginal
Chaffey Tim Whetstone LIB3.8% v NAT
Morialta John Gardner LIB4.1%
Adelaide Rachel Sanderson LIB4.2%
Norwood Steven Marshall LIB4.9%
Fairly safe
Stuart Dan van Holst Pellekaan LIB7.6%
Safe
Morphett Duncan McFetridge LIB11.1%
Finniss Michael Pengilly LIB11.2%
Davenport Iain Evans LIB11.8%
Unley David Pisoni LIB12.2%
Waite Martin Hamilton-Smith LIB12.9%
Kavel Mark Goldsworthy LIB15.8%
Heysen Isobel Redmond LIB16.5%
Schubert Ivan Venning LIB17.8%
Goyder Steven Griffiths LIB18.3%
Hammond Adrian Pederick LIB19.0%
MacKillop Mitch Williams LIB20.1% v IND
Bragg Vickie Chapman LIB21.1%
Flinders Peter Treloar LIB26.2%
Independent seats (3)
Mt Gambier Don Pegler IND0.4% v LIB
Frome Geoff Brock IND7.5% v LIB
Fisher Bob Such IND16.6% v LIB

Legislative Council

South Australian state election, 20 March 2010 [3]
Legislative Council
<< 20062014 >>

Enrolled voters1,093,316
Votes cast1,015,386 Turnout 92.9–0.2
Informal votes58,714Informal5.8+0.6
Summary of votes by party
PartyPrimary votes %SwingSeats
won
Seats
held
  Liberal 376,78639.4+13.447
  Labor 356,62637.3+0.748
  Greens 63,3586.6+2.312
  Family First 42,1874.4–0.612
  Dignity for Disability 11,2711.2+0.611
  Save the RAH 9,2411.0+1.000
  Democrats 8,2580.9–0.900
  Gamers 4 Croydon 7,9940.8+0.800
  Democratic Labour 7,9230.8+0.800
  Shooters 7,6990.8+0.200
  Fair Land Tax 5,9600.6+0.600
  One Nation 4,9720.5–0.300
  FREE Australia 3,7660.4+0.400
  National 3,4890.4–0.300
 United Party1,6910.2+0.200
  Independent 45,4514.8+1.600
Total956,672  1122

Prior to the election, of 22 seats, Labor and the Liberals held eight seats each, Family First and No Pokies held two seats each, and the Greens and Democrat-turned-independent David Winderlich held one seat each. Up for election were five Liberal, four Labor, one Family First, and Winderlich. Labor and the Liberals won four seats each, with one each to Family First and the Greens, with the last spot to Dignity for Disability candidate Kelly Vincent. [4] [5] [6] [7] This gives an upper house composition of eight Labor, seven Liberal, two Greens, two Family First, two independent No Pokies, and one Dignity for Disability. [8]

Campaign

Rann Labor opened the campaign by announcing the duplication (one-way to two-way) of the Southern Expressway, due to be completed by 2014. [9] Additional specialist maths and science teachers for South Australian high schools were announced. [10] Tens of thousands of extra training places and apprenticeships as part of a pledge to create 100,000 extra jobs during the next six years, [11] despite a healthy economy, assisted by mining and defence industries, and the lowest state unemployment figures in the country. [12]

Under Labor, the Royal Adelaide Hospital would be abandoned and a new hospital built on the site of the old rail yards, moving Adelaide's main hospital from the eastern end to the western end of North Terrace in the Central Business District, within the electoral district of Adelaide. The Liberals and minor party Save the RAH were campaigning against this, with the Liberals proposing renovations on the current site. [13] [14]

Australian Football League (AFL) games and other sporting events are expected to be moved away from AAMI Stadium to new grounds. The Liberals proposed a new sports stadium on the old rail yards, while Labor proposed a major overhaul of Adelaide Oval, also in the electoral district of Adelaide. [15]

A large unfunded liability within the workers compensation scheme known as WorkCover had built up under both Labor and Liberal governments, which sparked sweeping payout reductions under the last term of the Rann government, with the legislation passed in Parliament by both major parties, but came under sustained criticism from both the left and the right. The left were critical of monetary cuts to injured or otherwise incapable workers (see 2008 Parnell–Bressington filibuster), while the Liberals attacked WorkCover's operations, claiming there was wasteful duplication and a decrease in accountability, argued that this contributed to its budget problems, and that under a Liberal government WorkCover's insurance and regulatory arms would be split. [16]

Attorney-General Michael Atkinson had been the subject of sustained criticism by the internet generation demographic for refusing to allow classification of and therefore legally allow certain types of explicit media (see Michael Atkinson#Media classification and censorship). Gamers 4 Croydon was created and contested Atkinson's seat of Croydon, as well as Adelaide, Norwood, Light, Mawson, and the upper house. Though the Liberals had not pledged a different stance on the issue, Atkinson suffered a larger than average primary swing of 16 points and two-party-preferred swing of 12 points in his seat. Following the election, Atkinson announced his immediate resignation from the Rann ministry, and that he would not recontest his seat at the next election. It was announced that the new Rann Labor Attorney General would be John Rau, who expressed that he held a different view to his predecessor, and would be talking with his interstate counterparts at the next meeting of Attorneys General. [17]

The election campaign was overshadowed by affair allegations against Rann. [18]

Although it was apparent only a few hours after the polls closed that Rann Labor had retained majority government, [19] [20] it was four days after the election that Rann officially claimed victory, after Redmond eventually conceded that the Liberals had not won enough seats to be capable of forming a government. [21] The Governor of South Australia subsequently re-appointed Mike Rann as Premier of South Australia. [22]

Labor retained government despite the Liberals winning a bare majority of the statewide two-party vote. The "fairness clause" in the state constitution was intended to ensure that the party winning the statewide two-party vote would win a majority of seats. On the boundaries drawn after the 2006 election, which were based on over a quarter-century of voting patterns, a uniform swing of 6.9 percent would have seen the Liberals take seven seats off Labor—on paper, enough to make Redmond South Australia's first female premier. However, despite suffering a swing of 8.4 percent, Labor only lost three seats, and only two of them—Morialta and Adelaide—saw swings of 6.9 percent or more. While 22 seats saw double-digit swings, Labor sat on insurmountably safe margins in 16 of them. Labor actually picked up swings in their favour in their two most marginal seats, Light and Mawson. The ABC's Antony Green observed that Labor lost votes in seats that would have stayed in Labor hands in any event, while holding onto its support in seats the Liberals needed to win government. [23]

Additionally, the Liberals only won nine of the 34 metropolitan seats, though all three seats they took off Labor were in Adelaide. For most of the four decades since the end of the Playmander, South Australian politics have been characterised by an extreme urban-rural split. Under normal conditions, Labor wins the most seats in the capital, while most of the Liberal vote is packed into ultra-safe rural seats. The 2010 election was no different. While six of the Liberals' 13 safe seats were urban, all but one of their four marginal seats were urban. As was the case at the 1989 election, much of the Liberal majority was wasted on landslides in their rural heartland.

Candidates

See Candidates of the South Australian state election, 2010

Retiring

Liberal

Labor

Other

Polling

Newspoll polling is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes consist of just under 900 electors, with the 14–18 March 2010 poll consisting of just under 1600 electors. The declared margin of errors are ± 3.5 percent and ± 2.5 percent respectively.

Better Premier polling^
Labor
Rann
Liberal
Redmond
1418 Mar 201043%45%
JanMar 201044%41%
OctDec 200948%31%
JulAug 200946%27%
JanMar 200953%24%3
OctDec 200850%26%3
JulSep 200848%30%3
AprJun 200854%27%3
JanMar 200854%24%3
OctDec 200750%25%3
JulSep 200752%26%3
AprJun 200752%21%3
JanMar 200764%14%2
OctDec 200661%14%2
Pre 2006 election63%21%1
Pre 2002 election30%50%1
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian .
^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.
1 Rob Kerin, 2 Iain Evans, 3 Martin Hamilton-Smith
House of Assembly (lower house) polling
Primary vote TPP vote
ALPLibNatDemFFPGrnOthALPLib
2010 election37.5%41.7%1.0%0.4%5.4%8.1%5.9%48.4%51.6%
1418 Mar 201035.3%42.5%< .5%< .5%3.2%9.3%9.1%48%52%
JanMar 201036%39%1%1%1%10%12%50%50%
OctDec 200937%35%1%1%1%12%13%53%47%
JulAug 200941%33%1%1%1%11%12%56%44%
JanMar 200942%34%1%1%1%10%11%56%44%
OctDec 200839%35%1%< .5%1%13%11%54%46%
JulSep 200838%40%1%1%1%8%11%50%50%
AprJun 200841%35%1%< .5%2%12%9%54%46%
JanMar 200841%37%< .5%1%1%8%10%53%47%
OctDec 200742%36%1%2%3%7%9%54%46%
JulSep 200748%33%1%2%2%6%8%59%41%
AprJun 200747%35%1%1%2%5%9%57%43%
JanMar 200748%29%1%4%2%6%10%61%39%
OctDec 200647%33%1%2%3%4%10%58%42%
2006 election 45.2%34%2.1%2.9%5.9%6.5%3.4%56.8%43.2%
1516 Mar 200646%33%1.5%1.5%3%4%11%57%43%
JanFeb 200644%37%2%2%2%3%10%54%46%
OctDec 200546%35%2%1%2%4%10%56%43%
JulSep 200545%38%2%1%1%4%9%54%46%
AprJun 200546%37%2%1%2%4%8%55%45%
JanMar 200545%40%1%1%1%5%7%53%47%
OctDec 200442%42%2%1%2%4%7%49%51%
2002 election 36.3%40%1.5%7.5%2.6%2.4%9.7%49.1%50.9%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian .

Date

The last state election was held on 18 March 2006 to elect members for the House of Assembly and half of the members in the Legislative Council. In South Australia, section 28 of the Constitution Act 1934, as amended in 2001, directs that parliaments have fixed four-year terms, and elections must be held on the third Saturday in March every four years unless this date falls the day after Good Friday or occurs within the same month as a Commonwealth election, or the conduct of the election could be adversely affected by a state disaster. Section 28 also states that the Governor may also dissolve the Assembly and call an election for an earlier date if the Government has lost the confidence of the Assembly or a bill of special importance has been rejected by the Legislative Council. Section 41 states that both the Council and the Assembly may also be dissolved simultaneously if a deadlock occurs between them. [24]

The election campaign must run for a minimum of 25 days or a maximum of 55 days, therefore the Governor would need to have issued writs for the election by 23 February 2010 at the latest. Between 7 and 10 days after that date, the electoral roll is closed, which gives voters a final opportunity to enrol or to notify the State Electoral Office of any changes in their place of residence. Candidates wishing to stand for election can nominate between the issue of the writs and no more than 14 days after the close of rolls for a deposit of $450. [25]

The writs were issued 20 February, the electoral roll closed 2 March, and candidate nominations closed 5 March.

Previous Parliament

The centre-left Australian Labor Party, led by Premier Mike Rann, and the centre-right Liberal Party of Australia, led by Leader of the Opposition Isobel Redmond, are the two main parties in South Australia. In the 2006 state election, of 47 seats total, Labor won 28 seats, the Liberals won 15 seats and the Nationals, who are not in coalition with the Liberals in South Australia, retained their seat through minister Karlene Maywald (Chaffey). Three seats were retained by independents, minister Rory McEwen (Mount Gambier), Bob Such (Fisher) and Kris Hanna (Mitchell). Smaller parties which held no seats in the lower House but achieved significant votes in 2006 included the SA Greens and the Family First Party.

In the South Australian Legislative Council, the Labor Party and the Liberal Party held eight seats each, whilst No Pokies and Family First held two seats each. The SA Greens and an ex-Democrat independent held one seat each. Half of the upper house was up for election in 2010, four Labor and five Liberal, one Family First and one ex-Democrat independent.

No Pokies MP Nick Xenophon, re-elected in 2006 until 2014, was replaced by former No Pokies candidate John Darley after Xenophon's resignation to run for the Australian Senate at the 2007 federal election in which he was successful. Former Liberal MP Robert Brokenshire replaced Family First MP Andrew Evans as an MLC in 2008. The last remaining Democrats MP anywhere in Australia, Sandra Kanck, chose to resign before the end of her term, which prompted a party membership ballot to choose a replacement in early 2009. David Winderlich was selected. He resigned from the party in late 2009 to sit in parliament as an independent.

Former Liberal Premier Rob Kerin resigned in November 2008, which triggered a 2009 Frome by-election. Independent Geoff Brock won the seat, reducing the Liberals to 14 of 47 seats. A 2012 Ramsay by-election and a 2012 Port Adelaide by-election saw Labor retain both seats.

See also

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