2014 South Australian state election

Last updated

2014 South Australian state election
Flag of South Australia.svg
  2010 15 March 2014 2018  

All 47 seats in the South Australian House of Assembly
24 seats are needed for a majority
11 (of the 22) seats in the South Australian Legislative Council
 First partySecond party
  Jay Weatherill 2018.jpg PremierMarshall2018.jpg
Leader Jay Weatherill Steven Marshall
Party Labor Liberal
Leader since21 October 20114 February 2013
Leader's seat Cheltenham Dunstan
Last election26 seats18 seats
Seats won23 seats22 seats
Seat changeDecrease2.svg 3Increase2.svg 4
Popular vote364,420455,797
Percentage35.80%44.78%
SwingDecrease2.svg 1.67Increase2.svg 3.13
TPP 47.0%53.0%
TPP swingDecrease2.svg 1.39Increase2.svg 1.39

South Australia state election, 2014 (First Party Preference & Two-Party Prefered Vote).svg
The left side map shows the first party preference by electorate. The right side map shows the final two-party preferred vote result by electorate.

Premier before election

Jay Weatherill
Labor

Resulting Premier

Jay Weatherill
Labor

The 2014 South Australian state election elected members to the 53rd Parliament of South Australia on 15 March 2014, to fill all 47 seats in the House of Assembly (lower house) and 11 of 22 seats in the Legislative Council (upper house). The 12-year-incumbent Australian Labor Party (SA) government, led by Premier Jay Weatherill, won its fourth consecutive four-year term in government, a record 16 years of Labor government, defeating the opposition Liberal Party of Australia (SA), led by Opposition Leader Steven Marshall.

Contents

The election resulted in a hung parliament with 23 seats for Labor and 22 for the Liberals. The balance of power rested with the two crossbench independents, Bob Such and Geoff Brock. Such did not indicate whom he would support in a minority government before he went on medical leave for a brain tumour, diagnosed one week after the election. University of Adelaide Professor and Political Commentator Clem McIntyre said the absence of Such virtually guaranteed that Brock would back Labor – with 24 seats required to govern, Brock duly provided support to the incumbent Labor government, allowing Weatherill to continue in office as head of a minority government. McIntyre said: [1]

If Geoff Brock had gone with the Liberals, then the Parliament would have effectively been tied 23 to 23, so once Bob Such became ill and stepped away then Geoff Brock, I think had no choice but to side with Labor.

It is Labor's longest-serving South Australian government and the second longest-serving South Australian government behind the Playmander-assisted Liberal and Country League government of 1933-1965, which served first under Richard Layton Butler and then Thomas Playford IV. It is also the third time that any party has won four consecutive election victories in South Australia, after the LCL's 10 consecutive victories from 1933 to 1965 (the last eight under Playford) and Labor's four consecutive victories between 1970 and 1977 under Don Dunstan.

Recent hung parliaments occurred when Labor came to government in 2002 and prior to that when the state Liberal retained government in 1997 which saw the South Australian Division of the Liberal Party of Australia, created in 1974, win re-election for the first time.

The Liberals were reduced to 21 seats in May 2014 when Martin Hamilton-Smith became an independent and entered cabinet with Brock. Both Hamilton-Smith and Brock agreed to support the Labor government on confidence and supply while retaining the right to otherwise vote on conscience. Labor went from minority to majority government when Nat Cook won the 2014 Fisher by-election by five votes from a 7.3 percent two-party swing which was triggered by the death of Such. Despite this, the Jay Weatherill Labor government kept Brock and Hamilton-Smith in cabinet, giving the government a 26 to 21 parliamentary majority.

Like federal elections, South Australia has compulsory voting, uses full-preference instant-runoff voting in the lower house and single transferable vote group voting tickets in the proportionally represented upper house. The election was conducted by the Electoral Commission of South Australia (ECSA), an independent body answerable to Parliament.

Results

Winning party by electorate. South Australia state election, 2014 (Simple Map).svg
Winning party by electorate.

House of Assembly

The Liberals took three seats from Labor resulting in a hung parliament with 23 seats for Labor and 22 for the Liberals. [2] The balance of power rested with the two crossbench independents, Bob Such and Geoff Brock. [3] Such did not indicate who he would support in a minority government before he went on medical leave for a brain tumour, diagnosed one week after the election. University of Adelaide Professor and Political Commentator Clem McIntyre said the absence of Such virtually guaranteed that Brock would back Labor – with 24 seats required to govern, Brock duly provided support to the incumbent Labor government, allowing Premier Jay Weatherill to continue in office as head of a minority government. McIntyre said: [1]

If Geoff Brock had gone with the Liberals, then the Parliament would have effectively been tied 23 to 23, so once Bob Such became ill and stepped away then Geoff Brock, I think had no choice but to side with Labor.

In a joint press conference with Weatherill, Brock said Such's absence prompted him to make his decision a week sooner than planned. [4] The new government was sworn in on 26 March, with Brock in cabinet as Minister for Regional Development and Local Government. [2] The Liberals were reduced to 21 seats in May 2014 when Martin Hamilton-Smith became an independent and entered cabinet as Minister for Investment and Trade, Defence Industries and Veterans Affairs. Both Hamilton-Smith and Brock agreed to support the Labor government on confidence and supply while retaining the right to otherwise vote on conscience. [5] [6] Labor achieved majority government when Nat Cook won the 2014 Fisher by-election by five votes from a 7.3 percent two-party swing which was triggered by the death of Such. Despite this, the Jay Weatherill Labor government kept Brock and Hamilton-Smith in cabinet, giving the government a 26 to 21 parliamentary majority. [7]

2014 South Australian House of Assembly.svg
PartyVotes%+/–Seats+/–
Liberal 455,79744.78Increase2.svg 3.1322Increase2.svg 4
Labor 364,42035.80Decrease2.svg 1.6723Decrease2.svg 3
Greens 88,6008.70Increase2.svg 0.590Steady2.svg 0
Family First Party 63,5756.25Increase2.svg 0.870Steady2.svg 0
Independents 37,9553.73Decrease2.svg 0.972Decrease2.svg 1
Dignity Party 5,9340.58Increase2.svg 0.450Steady2.svg 0
National 1,3280.13Decrease2.svg 0.920Steady2.svg 0
FREE Australia 2470.02Decrease2.svg 0.130Steady2.svg 0
Total1,017,856100.0047
Valid votes1,017,85696.91
Invalid/blank votes32,5033.09Decrease2.svg 0.24
Total votes1,050,359100.00
Registered voters/turnout1,142,41991.94Decrease2.svg 0.84
Source: [8]
Two-party-preferred vote
Liberal 539,49553.00Decrease2.svg 1.39
Labor 478,36147.00Increase2.svg 1.39
Total1,017,856100.00
Popular vote
Liberal
44.78%
Labor
35.80%
Greens
8.70%
Family First
6.25%
Independents
3.73%
Others
0.74%
Two-party-preferred vote
Liberal
53.00%
Labor
47.00%
Seats
Labor
48.94%
Liberal
46.81%
Independents
4.26%

Independents: Bob Such, Geoff Brock

Although the state-wide two-party vote (2PP) was 47.0% Labor v 53.0% Liberal, the Adelaide metropolitan area containing over 75% of South Australia's population and 72% of seats (34 of 47) recorded a 2PP of 51.5% Labor v 48.5% Liberal. [9]

Seat movement

The following seats changed hands: [10]

SeatPre-2014SwingPost-2014
PartyMemberMarginMarginMemberParty
Bright  Labor Chloë Fox 0.53.73.3 David Speirs Liberal 
Hartley  Labor Grace Portolesi 0.12.62.4 Vincent Tarzia Liberal 
Mitchell  Labor Alan Sibbons 2.43.61.2 Corey Wingard Liberal 
Mount Gambier  Independent Don Pegler 0.57.77.2 Troy Bell Liberal 

Pendulum

The following Mackerras pendulum works by lining up all of the seats according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis based on the 2014 results. [11] [12] "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent. [13]

15 of 47 electorates in South Australia had a Green vote of above 10 percent at the 2014 state election. At the 2013 federal election, of 11 seats, the Green vote was above 10 percent in Adelaide, Boothby and Mayo. 2014greensSA.png
15 of 47 electorates in South Australia had a Green vote of above 10 percent at the 2014 state election. At the 2013 federal election, of 11 seats, the Green vote was above 10 percent in Adelaide, Boothby and Mayo.
Labor seats (23)
Marginal
Newland Tom Kenyon ALP1.4%
Colton Paul Caica ALP1.5%
Elder Annabel Digance ALP1.8%
Ashford Steph Key ALP1.9%
Florey Frances Bedford ALP2.5%
Light Tony Piccolo ALP2.8%
Wright Jennifer Rankine ALP3.0%
Torrens Dana Wortley ALP3.5%
Lee Stephen Mullighan ALP4.5%
Mawson Leon Bignell ALP5.6%
Fairly safe
Giles Eddie Hughes ALP7.0%
Little Para Lee Odenwalder ALP7.4%
Kaurna Chris Picton ALP7.7%
Enfield John Rau ALP8.1%
Napier Jon Gee ALP9.1%
Reynell Katrine Hildyard ALP10.0%
Safe
Port Adelaide Susan Close ALP10.6%
West Torrens Tom Koutsantonis ALP10.8%
Taylor Leesa Vlahos ALP11.6%
Playford Jack Snelling ALP12.6%
Cheltenham Jay Weatherill ALP14.3%
Ramsay Zoe Bettison ALP18.4%
Croydon Michael Atkinson ALP18.9%
Liberal seats (22)
Marginal
Mitchell Corey Wingard LIB1.2%
Adelaide Rachel Sanderson LIB2.4%
Hartley Vincent Tarzia LIB2.4%
Dunstan Steven Marshall LIB3.1%
Bright David Speirs LIB3.3%
Fairly safe
Mt Gambier Troy Bell LIB7.2% v IND
Davenport Iain Evans LIB8.1%
Unley David Pisoni LIB9.8%
Morialta John Gardner LIB10.0%
Safe
Heysen Isobel Redmond LIB11.0% v GRN
Waite Martin Hamilton-Smith LIB11.4%
Goyder Steven Griffiths LIB12.9%
Morphett Duncan McFetridge LIB12.9%
Finniss Michael Pengilly LIB13.8%
Kavel Mark Goldsworthy LIB14.0%
Schubert Stephan Knoll LIB14.6%
Hammond Adrian Pederick LIB14.6%
Bragg Vickie Chapman LIB18.7%
Stuart Dan van Holst Pellekaan LIB20.5%
Chaffey Tim Whetstone LIB25.1%
MacKillop Mitch Williams LIB26.7%
Flinders Peter Treloar LIB29.2%
Independent seats (2)
Frome Geoff Brock IND8.8% v LIB
Fisher Bob Such [14] IND9.4% v LIB

Legislative Council

2014 South Australian Legislative Council.svg
PartyVotes%+/–Seats
Not UpWonTotal+/-
Liberal 363,80935.99Increase2.svg 3.4448Increase2.svg 1
Labor 312,94430.96Decrease2.svg 6.3347Decrease2.svg 1
Independent Xenophon Team 130,28912.89New011New
Greens 65,2156.45Decrease2.svg 0.1112Steady2.svg 0
Independents 44,1854.37Decrease2.svg 0.4101Steady2.svg 0
Family First Party 44,0154.35Decrease2.svg 0.1112Steady2.svg 0
Shooters and Fishers 13,6081.35Increase2.svg 0.5000Steady2.svg
Dignity Party 9,3670.93Decrease2.svg 0.3011Steady2.svg
Fishing and Lifestyle 7,9990.79Increase2.svg 0.8000Steady2.svg 0
Liberal Democrats 6,0910.60Increase2.svg 0.6000Steady2.svg 0
Stop Population Growth Now 3,8840.38Increase2.svg 0.4000Steady2.svg 0
FREE Australia 2,8310.28Decrease2.svg 0.1
National 2,2680.22Decrease2.svg 0.2000Steady2.svg 0
Multicultural Progress Party 1,5600.15Increase2.svg 0.2000Steady2.svg 0
Katter's Australian 1,5030.15Increase2.svg 0.1000Steady2.svg 0
Fair Land Tax - Tax Party 1,3630.13Decrease2.svg 0.5000Steady2.svg 0
Total1,010,931100.00101222
Valid votes1,010,93196.06
Invalid/blank votes41,5083.94Decrease2.svg 1.9
Total votes1,052,439100.00
Registered voters/turnout1,142,41992.12Decrease2.svg 0.8
Source: [15]
Members of the South Australian Legislative Council
Labor (8) Liberal (8) Green (2) Family First (2) Xenophon Team (1) Dignity for Disability (1)

elected 2014:
Russell Wortley
Ian Hunter
Tung Ngo
Kyam Maher

elected 2014:
Rob Lucas
John Dawkins
Michelle Lensink
Andrew McLachlan

elected 2014:
Mark Parnell

elected 2014:
Dennis Hood

elected 2014:
John Darley

elected 2010:
Gerry Kandelaars 1
Gail Gago
Bernard Finnigan 2
John Gazzola

elected 2010:
David Ridgway
Stephen Wade
Terry Stephens
Jing Lee

elected 2010:
Tammy Franks

elected 2010:
Robert Brokenshire

elected 2010:
Kelly Vincent

1 Appointed by casual vacancy in 2011
2 Elected from Labor ticket, became independent in 2011

Date

The last state election was held on 20 March 2010 to elect members for the House of Assembly and half of the members in the Legislative Council. In South Australia, section 28 of the Constitution Act 1934, as amended in 2001, directs that parliaments have fixed four-year terms, and elections must be held on the third Saturday in March every four years unless this date falls the day after Good Friday, occurs within the same month as a Commonwealth election, or the conduct of the election could be adversely affected by a state disaster. Section 28 also states that the Governor may also dissolve the Assembly and call an election for an earlier date if the Government has lost the confidence of the Assembly or a bill of special importance has been rejected by the Legislative Council. Section 41 states that both the Council and the Assembly may also be dissolved simultaneously if a deadlock occurs between them. [16]

The Electoral (Miscellaneous) Amendment Act 2013 introduced set dates for writs for General elections in South Australia. The writ sets the dates for the close of the electoral roll and the close of nominations for an election. The Electoral Act 1985 requires that, for a general election, the writ be issued 28 days before the date fixed for polling (S47(2a)) and the electoral roll be closed at 12 noon, 6 days after the issue of the writ (S48(3(a)(i). The close of nominations will be at 12 noon 3 days after the close of rolls (Electoral Act 1985 S48(4)(a) and S4(1)). Since the previous election, five new parties had registered: Fishing and Lifestyle Party, Liberal Democratic Party, Multicultural Progress Party, Stop Population Growth Now, and Katter's Australian Party. Six were no longer registered: The Democrats, Save the RAH, Gamers 4 Croydon, Democratic Labor Party, One Nation, and United Party. [17]

Polling Day for the 2014 South Australian State election was Saturday 15 March 2014 from 8am until 6pm. The Issue of Writ for the 2014 South Australian State election was Saturday 15 February 2014. The Electoral Roll closed at 12 noon, Friday 21 February 2014. Nominations for candidates wishing to stand for election closed at 12 noon, Monday 24 February 2014, [18] with the ballot order for both houses drawn and released shortly after, [19] [20] followed by close and release of upper house above-the-line preference tickets. [20] Lower house how-to-vote card lodgements closed at 12 noon, 7 March 2014. [21]

The 2014 Tasmanian state election occurred on the same day. [22]

Background

The centre-left Australian Labor Party, led by Premier Jay Weatherill, and the centre-right Liberal Party of Australia, led by Leader of the Opposition Steven Marshall, are the two main parties in South Australia. In the 2010 state election, of 47 seats total, the Labor Party won 26 seats and the Liberal Party won 18 seats. Three seats were won by independents, Bob Such (Fisher), Geoff Brock (Frome), and Don Pegler (Mount Gambier). Smaller parties which held no seats in the lower House but achieved significant votes in 2010 include the SA Greens and the Family First Party. In the upper house, the Labor Party held eight seats, the Liberal Party held seven seats, the SA Greens, the Family First Party, and No Pokies all held two seats each, and Dignity for Disability held one seat.

A Port Adelaide by-election and a Ramsay by-election occurred on 11 February 2012, Labor retained both seats.

Retiring MPs

Labor

Liberal

Other

Redistributions and the two-party vote

To produce 'fair' boundaries, which has a history going back to the mid-1900s Playmander, the Electoral Commission of South Australia has been required following the 1989 election to redraw boundaries after each election through a "fairness" provision with the objective that the party which receives over 50 percent of the statewide two-party vote at the forthcoming election should win the two-party vote in a majority of seats. [32]

Labor's success in South Australia since the end of the Playmander has been based in part on the strength of its dominance in Adelaide. South Australia is the most centralised state in Australia; while 1.7 million people live in South Australia, 1.3 million of them live in Adelaide − uniquely, over 75 percent of the state's population and 72 percent of seats (34 of 47) are located in the metropolitan area alongside a lack of comparatively-sized rural population centres. Therefore, to a far greater extent than is the case in the rest of Australia, the metropolitan area tends to decide election outcomes. Under normal conditions, Labor wins the most seats in Adelaide, with the Liberal vote locked up in ultra-safe rural seats.

In 2010, for instance, the Liberals picked up a swing of 8.4 percent, more than the uniform 6.9 percent swing that the Boundaries Commission envisaged as being enough for a Liberal win. However, most of that swing came in seats that would have stayed in Labor hands in any event; while 22 seats saw double-digit swings, Labor sat on insurmountably safe margins in 16 of them. [33] Additionally, while the Liberals took three Adelaide-area seats off Labor, it only won six additional seats in the capital. While six of the Liberals' 13 safe two-party seats were urban, all but one of their four marginal seats were urban. As a result, while the Liberals won 51.6 percent of the two-party vote, Labor only suffered an overall three-seat swing, allowing it to hold onto a two-seat majority.

The 2014 election saw more of the same. While the state-wide two-party vote (2PP) was 47.0% Labor v 53.0% Liberal, the metropolitan area recorded a 2PP of 51.5% Labor v 48.5% Liberal. [9] The Liberals only won 12 of the 34 metropolitan seats; while only four of their 14 safe two-party seats were urban, all eight non-safe (<10 percent) seats were urban. Overall, the election resulted in a hung parliament with 23 seats for Labor and 22 for the Liberals. The balance of power rested with the two crossbench independents, Bob Such and Geoff Brock. Their seats, Fisher and Frome, both returned clear Liberal two-party votes but elected independents. 24 seats had returned a Liberal two-party vote, 23 seats returned a Labor two-party vote, therefore the "fairness" provision was met.

One element of the Playmander remains to this day − the House of Assembly is still elected using single-member seats. Prior to the Playmander, the House of Assembly had always been elected using multi-member seats since the inaugural 1857 election.

Each Labor period of government since the end of the Playmander had at least one comprehensive win, allowing often-Liberal seats to be won by Labor candidates who then built up incumbency and personal popularity. Examples in 2014 were Mawson, Newland and Light, and additionally in 2010, Bright and Hartley – all gained at the 2006 election landslide. Mawson in fact swung toward Labor in 2010 and 2014 despite the statewide trend. The bellwether seat of Colton was retained by Labor. Furthermore, all but two of the nine Liberal-held metropolitan seats saw swings against the Liberals.

In 2014, referring to the 1989 fairness legislation, Premier Jay Weatherill said "Complaining about the rules when you designed the rules I think sits ill on the mouth of the Liberal Party", while Electoral Commissioner Kay Mousley said it was an "impossible" task for the Boundaries Commission to achieve the legislated requirement, stating "It is a constitutional requirement, and until the constitution gets changed, I must say I find it a very inexact science". [34] Additionally, she had previously stated in 2010 "Had the Liberal Party achieved a uniform swing it would have formed Government. The Commission has no control over, and can accept no responsibility for, the quality of the candidates, policies and campaigns." [35] University of Adelaide Professor of Politics Clem Macintyre stated after the 2014 election that fair electoral boundaries are an "impossible challenge". [36]

The Liberal Party disagreed with that assessment, and submitted that Hartley, Elder and Bright should be moved from Labor to Liberal. [37]

The Australian Broadcasting Corporation's election expert Antony Green expected that the Labor government's parliamentary majority from the 2010 election would be redistributed away. [38] [39] However, the draft redistribution, which altered the boundaries of 36 of 47 seats, nominally gave Labor 26 seats and the Liberals 21 seats on a two-party basis. Although held by an independent member, Frome was proposed to be moved from Labor to Liberal on a two-party basis. It was also proposed that the Norwood be renamed Dunstan. [40]

The final redistribution was released in August 2012. The renaming of the seat of Norwood to Dunstan occurred. On Antony Green's calculations, the notional two-party margin in Frome went from 0.1 percent Labor to 1.7 percent Liberal, Ashford went from 4.8 percent to 0.6 percent for Labor, Hartley went from 2.3 percent to 0.1 percent for Labor, Elder went from 3.6 percent to 2.0 percent for Labor and Light went from 5.3 percent to 2.8 percent for Labor, amongst other boundary and margin reductions and increases. All redistribution figures and swings used are based on Antony Green's booth-based declaration vote calculations rather than the electoral commission's seat-based declaration vote calculations. [41] [42] [43] [44]

Polling

Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian was conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consisted of over 800 electors, while the 10–13 March 2014 poll consisted of 1602 electors. The declared margin of errors at these sample sizes were ±3.5 percent and ±2.5 percent respectively. Two-party preferred figures were calculated based on preference flows at the 2010 state election.

House of Assembly (lower house) polling
Primary vote TPP vote
LibNatALPGrnOthLibALP
15 Mar 2014 election44.8%0.1%35.8%8.7%10.7%53.0%47.0%
10–13 Mar 201441%<.5%34%9%16%52.3%47.7%
21–27 Feb 201444%<.5%34%7%15%54%46%
Oct–Dec 201340%<.5%33%10%17%53%47%
Apr–Jun 201344%1%32%10%13%56%44%
Mar 201343%1%33%10%13%54%46%
Oct–Dec 201240%1%37%9%13%51%49%
Jul–Sep 201243%1%28%11%17%57%43%
Jan–Mar 201240%<.5%34%11%15%52%48%
Nov–Dec 201140%2%34%9%15%52%48%
Apr–Jun 201140%1%30%14%15%54%46%
25 Feb–6 Mar 201142%1%29%14%14%56%44%
20 Mar 2010 election 41.7%1.0%37.5%8.1%11.7%51.6%48.4%
14–18 Mar 201042.5%< .5%35.3%9.3%12.3%52%48%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian .
Better Premier and satisfaction polling^
Better PremierWeatherillMarshall
WeatherillMarshallSatisfiedDissatisfiedSatisfiedDissatisfied
15 Mar 2014 election
10–13 Mar 201443%37%42%42%42%35%
21–27 Feb 201440%39%43%44%45%29%
Oct–Dec 201340%29%43%37%43%21%
Apr–Jun 201341%30%47%35%41%20%
Mar 201342%27%46%34%37%19%
Oct–Dec 201247%27%249%32%40%240%2
Jul–Sep 201240%27%242%33%40%236%2
Jan–Mar 201246%23%247%23%43%234%2
Nov–Dec 201145%29%251%14%49%230%2
Apr–Jun 201134%145%231%159%151%229%2
25 Feb–6 Mar 201132%150%230%159%152%225%2
20 Mar 2010 election
14–18 Mar 201043%145%243%148%159%223%2
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian .
^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.
1 Mike Rann.
2 Isobel Redmond.

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">South Australian House of Assembly</span> Lower house of the states Parliament

The House of Assembly, or lower house; Is one of the two chambers of the Parliament of South Australia. The other is the Legislative Council. It sits in Parliament House in the state capital, Adelaide.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Electoral district of Adelaide</span> South Australian state electoral district

Adelaide is a single-member electoral district for the South Australian House of Assembly. The 22.8 km² state seat of Adelaide currently consists of the Adelaide city centre including North Adelaide and suburbs to the inner north and inner north east: Collinswood, Fitzroy, Gilberton, Medindie, Medindie Gardens, Ovingham, Thorngate, Walkerville, most of Prospect, and part of Nailsworth. The federal division of Adelaide covers the state seat of Adelaide and additional suburbs in each direction.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Electoral district of Frome</span> Australian electorate

Frome is a single-member electoral district for the South Australian House of Assembly. It is named after Edward Charles Frome, the third surveyor-general of South Australia. The electorate stretches north-eastwards from the Gawler River and Gulf St Vincent in the south, and includes many of the agricultural areas of the Clare and Gilbert Valleys. It covers a total of 12,921 km2 (4,989 sq mi) and takes in the towns of Auburn, Clare, Mintaro, Port Broughton, Saddleworth, Snowtown and Riverton. Prior to the 2020 redistribution, its main population centre was Port Pirie, since transferred to Stuart.

The term swing refers to the extent of change in voter support, typically from one election or opinion poll to another, expressed as a positive or negative percentage point. For the Australian House of Representatives and the lower or unicameral houses of the parliaments of all the states and territories except Tasmania and the ACT, as well as Tasmania's upper house, Australia employs preferential voting in single-member constituencies. Under the full-preference instant-runoff voting system, in each seat the candidate with the lowest vote is eliminated and their preferences are distributed, which is repeated until only two candidates remain. While every seat has a two-candidate preferred (TCP) result, seats where the major parties have come first and second are commonly referred to as having a two-party-preferred (TPP) result. The concept of "swing" in Australian elections is not simply a function of the difference between the votes of the two leading candidates, as it is in Britain. To know the majority of any seat, and therefore the swing necessary for it to change hands, it is necessary to know the preferences of all the voters, regardless of their first preference votes. It is not uncommon in Australia for candidates who have comfortable leads on the first count to fail to win the seat, because "preference flows" go against them.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Electoral district of Unley</span> State electoral district of South Australia

Unley is a single-member electoral district for the South Australian House of Assembly. Named after the suburb of the same name, it is the state's smallest electorate by area at just 14.1 km2 (5.4 sq mi). It is a suburban electorate in Adelaide's inner south, taking in the suburbs of Eastwood, Frewville, Fullarton, Glenside, Glenunga, Goodwood, Highgate, Hyde Park, Kings Park, Malvern, Myrtle Bank, Parkside, Unley, Unley Park and Wayville, as well as parts of Glen Osmond and Millswood.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Bob Such</span> Australian politician

Robert Bruce Such was a South Australian politician. He was the member for the seat of Fisher in the South Australian House of Assembly from 1989 until his death in 2014. He defeated Labor MP Philip Tyler at the 1989 election and was a member of the Liberals until 2000 when he became an independent. Such was Minister for Employment, Training and Further Education, and Minister for Youth Affairs, in the Brown Liberal government from 1993 to 1996. He served as Speaker of the South Australian House of Assembly for the Rann Labor government from 2005 to 2006. Such was joint Father of the House with Michael Atkinson from 2012.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Martin Hamilton-Smith</span> Australian politician

Martin Leslie James Hamilton-Smith is a former Australian politician who represented the South Australian House of Assembly seat of Waite from the 1997 election until his retirement in 2018. First elected as a candidate for the Liberal Party, Hamilton-Smith was the state parliamentary leader of the Liberal Party and the Leader of the Opposition in South Australia from 2007 to 2009, and a Minister in the Kerin Liberal government from 2001 to 2002.

The Playmander was a pro-rural electoral malapportionment in the Australian state of South Australia, which was introduced by the incumbent Liberal and Country League (LCL) government in 1936, and remained in place for 32 years until 1968.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Isobel Redmond</span> Australian politician

Isobel Mary Redmond is a former Australian politician who was the member for the electoral district of Heysen in the House of Assembly from 2002 to 2018. She was the parliamentary leader of the South Australian Division of the Liberal Party of Australia and the Leader of the Opposition in the Parliament of South Australia between 2009 and 2013, and was the first female leader of a South Australian state major party. Under Redmond, the Liberals won 18 of 47 seats in the South Australian House of Assembly at the 2010 election, a gain of three from the 2006 election. She resigned as leader of the Liberal Party on 31 January 2013.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Two-party-preferred vote</span> Result of election after distribution of preferences

In Australian politics, the two-party-preferred vote is the result of an election or opinion poll after preferences have been distributed to the highest two candidates, who in some cases can be independents. For the purposes of TPP, the Liberal/National Coalition is usually considered a single party, with Labor being the other major party. Typically the TPP is expressed as the percentages of votes attracted by each of the two major parties, e.g. "Coalition 50%, Labor 50%", where the values include both primary votes and preferences. The TPP is an indicator of how much swing has been attained/is required to change the result, taking into consideration preferences, which may have a significant effect on the result.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2010 South Australian state election</span>

The 2010 South Australian state election elected members to the 52nd Parliament of South Australia on 20 March 2010. All seats in the House of Assembly or lower house, whose current members were elected at the 2006 election, and half the seats in the Legislative Council or upper house, last filled at the 2002 election, became vacant.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2009 Frome state by-election</span>

A by-election was held for the South Australian House of Assembly seat of Frome on 17 January 2009. This was triggered by the resignation of former Premier and state Liberal MHA Rob Kerin. The seat had been retained by the Liberals at the 2006 state election on a 3.4 per cent margin, and at the 2002 state election on an 11.5 per cent margin.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Geoff Brock</span> Australian politician

Geoffrey Graeme Brock is an Australian politician. He is an Independent member in the South Australian House of Assembly, representing the seat of Stuart since the 2022 South Australian state election. Prior to this, he represented the seat of Frome from the 2009 Frome by-election until a redistribution leading up to the 2022 state election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Steven Marshall</span> 46th Premier of South Australia

Steven Spence Marshall is a former Australian politician who served as the 46th premier of South Australia between 2018 and 2022. He was a member of the South Australian Division of the Liberal Party of Australia in the South Australian House of Assembly from 2010 until 2024, representing the electorate of Dunstan.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2012 Port Adelaide state by-election</span>

A by-election occurred in the South Australian House of Assembly seat of Port Adelaide on 11 February 2012. Labor's Susan Close won the seat on a 52.9 percent two-candidate-preferred (TCP) vote. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of former Deputy Premier, Treasurer and state Labor MHA Kevin Foley.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2012 Ramsay state by-election</span>

A by-election occurred in the South Australian House of Assembly seat of Ramsay on 11 February 2012. The seat was won by Labor candidate Zoe Bettison. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of former Premier and state Labor MHA Mike Rann.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2018 South Australian state election</span>

The 2018 South Australian state election to elect members to the 54th Parliament of South Australia was held on 17 March 2018. All 47 seats in the House of Assembly or lower house, whose members were elected at the 2014 election, and 11 of 22 seats in the Legislative Council or upper house, last filled at the 2010 election, were contested. The record-16-year-incumbent Australian Labor Party (SA) government led by Premier Jay Weatherill was seeking a fifth four-year term, but was defeated by the opposition Liberal Party of Australia (SA), led by Opposition Leader Steven Marshall. Nick Xenophon's new SA Best party unsuccessfully sought to obtain the balance of power.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 Fisher state by-election</span> South Australian by-election

A by-election for the seat of Fisher in the South Australian House of Assembly was held on 6 December 2014. The by-election was triggered by the death of independent MP Bob Such on 11 October 2014. Originally elected to Fisher for the Liberal Party of Australia at the 1989 election, defeating the one-term Australian Labor Party MP Philip Tyler, Such left the party in 2000.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2015 Davenport state by-election</span>

A by-election for the seat of Davenport in the South Australian House of Assembly was held on 31 January 2015. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Liberal Party of Australia MP and former Liberal leader Iain Evans, who retained the seat at the 2014 election on a 58.1 (−2.8) percent two-party-preferred vote. Liberal Sam Duluk went on to win the seat despite a five-point two-party swing, turning the historically safe seat of Davenport in to a marginal for the first time.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 South Australian state election</span>

The 2022 South Australian state election was held on 19 March 2022 to elect members to the 55th Parliament of South Australia. All 47 seats in the House of Assembly, and half the seats in the Legislative Council were up for re-election.

References

  1. 1 2 By-election for Bob Such's seat of Fisher expected to put pressure on Weatherill Government: ABC 13 October 2014
  2. 1 2 Re-elected SA Labor Government gets down to business: ABC 27/3/2014
  3. "Independents Bob Such, Geoff Brock likely to hold balance of power as hung parliament looms". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 16 March 2014.
  4. Labor to form minority government with support of independent Geoff Brock: ABC 23 March 2014
  5. "Martin Hamilton-Smith quits Liberals to back South Australian Labor Government". ABC News. 28 May 2014. Retrieved 28 May 2014.
  6. Former Liberal leader Martin Hamilton-Smith attends first Labor Cabinet meeting in SA: ABC 2 June 2014
  7. Fisher by-election win for Labor gives Weatherill Government majority in SA: ABC 13 December 2014
  8. "Details of SA 2014 Election". Australian Politics and Elections Database.
  9. 1 2 Metropolitan 2PP correctly calculated by adding raw metro 2PP vote numbers from the 34 metro seats, both Labor and Liberal, then dividing Labor's raw metro 2PP vote from the total, which revealed a Labor metropolitan 2PP of 51.54%. Obtained raw metro 2PP vote numbers from ECSA 2014 election statistics Archived 7 March 2016 at the Wayback Machine , ECSA 2014 Heysen election Archived 11 December 2014 at the Wayback Machine and ABC 2014 Fisher by-election.
  10. Antony Green (16 March 2014). "Changing Seats". 2014 SA election. Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
  11. "2014 SA pendulum". 2014 South Australian Election. Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
  12. 2014 SA election House of Assembly final results: ECSA Archived 24 March 2014 at the Wayback Machine
  13. Seat status (Party 'safeness') - Political party name abbreviations & codes, demographic ratings and seat status: AEC
  14. Independent MP for Fisher Bob Such, without indicating confidence and supply support, took immediate medical leave for a brain tumour, diagnosed one week after the election, with his death occurring later that year. Labor achieved majority government when Nat Cook won the 2014 Fisher by-election.
  15. "Results of 2014 Election". Electoral Commission of South Australia. Archived from the original on 29 June 2015. Retrieved 22 June 2015.
  16. "Australian elections timetable". Australian Parliamentary Library. Retrieved 5 February 2013.
  17. "Registered Political Parties : 7 November 2013". ECSA.sa.gov.au. 7 November 2013.
  18. "Key dates". 2014 SA election. ECSA.sa.gov.au.
  19. "Lower house candidates". 2014 SA election. ECSA.sa.gov.au. Archived from the original on 27 February 2014. Retrieved 27 February 2014.
  20. 1 2 "Upper house candidates". 2014 SA election. ECSA.sa.gov.au. Archived from the original on 27 February 2014. Retrieved 27 February 2014.
  21. "How-to-vote cards". 2014 SA election. ECSA.sa.gov.au. Archived from the original on 8 March 2014.
  22. "Tasmanian Premier names election date as March 15". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 16 January 2014. Retrieved 16 January 2014.
  23. "Lyn Breuer ponders her political deadline". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 29 April 2013.
  24. 1 2 "Senior Ministers to quit State Parliament". ABC News. 15 January 2013. Retrieved 15 January 2013.
  25. Brad Crouch (5 April 2013). "Government Whip Robyn Geraghty will retire at the 2014 election". The Advertiser. Adelaide: News Ltd.
  26. Jonathan Swan (31 January 2014). "Senator Don Farrell backs down on move to SA politics after Premier Jay Weatherill threatens to quit". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 16 February 2014.
  27. "Breuer to quit after losing speaker's chair". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 28 March 2013.
  28. "Former Foley staffer tipped for Wright's seat". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 15 March 2012.
  29. "CFS volunteers consider challenge to 'disgraceful' compensation legislation". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 29 November 2013.
  30. Liberal South Australian MP Ivan Venning calling stumps: AdelaideNow 10 July 2012
  31. The Tally Room (26 January 2014). "2014 SA election, upper house". Tally Room. Retrieved 16 February 2014.
  32. Jaensch Dean (1990). "The 1989 South Australian election". Australian Journal of Political Science. 25 (2): 333–338. doi:10.1080/00323269008402128.
  33. 2010 election preview from Antony Green
  34. Liberals blocked by unfair boundaries, says Downer: The Australian 17 March 2014
  35. "Draft Redistribution Report". Electoral Commission of South Australia. 12 August 2011. Archived from the original on 3 November 2012. Retrieved 9 June 2012.
  36. Fair electoral boundaries an "impossible challenge": University of Adelaide, 21 March 2014
  37. "Liberals want three marginal Labor seats to swing their way". The Advertiser. 5 August 2012.
  38. Antony Green (29 March 2010). "South Australian Election, Final 2-Party Preferred Counts". Antony Green's Election Blog. ABC News. Retrieved 9 June 2012.
  39. Antony Green (8 February 2011). "Future election dates". Antony Green's Election Blog. ABC News. Retrieved 9 June 2012.
  40. Antony Green (1 June 2012). "New State Electoral Boundaries Proposed for South Australia". Antony Green's Election Blog. ABC News. Retrieved 9 June 2012.
  41. 2014 South Australian Electoral Pendulum: Antony Green ABC 21 January 2014
  42. "Final redistribution report". Electoral Commission of South Australia. Archived from the original on 9 April 2013. Retrieved 23 August 2012.
  43. "South Australia redistributed". Poll Bludger. 23 August 2012.
  44. 2014 SA election seats: ABC