2014 Fisher state by-election

Last updated

2014 Fisher state by-election
Flag of South Australia.svg
6 December 2014
 First partySecond partyThird party
  Nat Cook MP.jpg Liberal Placeholder.png
IND
Candidate Nat Cook Heidi HarrisDan Woodyatt
Party Labor Liberal Independent
Popular vote5,4957,4134,789
Percentage26.7%36.1%23.3%
SwingIncrease2.svg 9.0Increase2.svg 1.0Increase2.svg 23.3
TPP 50.02%49.98%
TPP swingIncrease2.svg 7.27Decrease2.svg 7.27

Fisher Electoral District SA 2014.png
Electoral district of Fisher in the southern metropolitan area of Adelaide.

MP before election

Bob Such
Independent

Elected MP

Nat Cook
Labor

A by-election for the seat of Fisher in the South Australian House of Assembly was held on 6 December 2014. The by-election was triggered by the death of independent MP Bob Such on 11 October 2014. Originally elected to Fisher for the Liberal Party of Australia at the 1989 election, defeating the one-term Australian Labor Party MP Philip Tyler, Such left the party in 2000. [1] [2]

Contents

Though the Liberals were favourites to win the traditionally Liberal seat, [3] Labor's Nat Cook won the by-election by five votes, a 50.02 percent two-party-preferred vote from a 7.27-point swing away from the Liberals, resulting in a change from minority to majority government. [4] [5] [6] Despite this, the Jay Weatherill Labor government kept crossbench MPs Geoff Brock and Martin Hamilton-Smith in cabinet, giving the government a 26 to 21 parliamentary majority. [4]

ABC psephologist Antony Green described the by-election as a "very poor result for the Liberal Party in South Australia both state and federally", and that a fourth term government gaining a seat at a by-election was unprecedented in Australian history. [7] Much of the anti-Liberal swing was attributed to the unpopularity of then Prime Minister Tony Abbott, and additionally, the remark from then Defence Minister David Johnston several days before the Fisher by-election, where he stated he wouldn't trust South Australia's Australian Submarine Corporation to "build a canoe". [8] [9] [10] [11]

Dates

DateEvent [6]
8 November 2014 Writ of election issued by the Speaker
18 November 2014Close of electoral rolls
21 November 2014Close of nominations
6 December 2014Polling day, between the hours of 8 am and 6 pm

Candidates

8 candidates in ballot paper order [6]
  Liberal Party of Australia Heidi HarrisFormer Lord Melbourne Hotel manager and political adviser to Duncan McFetridge. Liberal candidate for Elder in 2002. [6]
  Independent Australian Democrats Jeanie WalkerProperty investing and management, Aboriginal Family Violence Case Manager. [6] Australian Democrats, No Rodeo and independent candidate at prior elections.
  Australian Labor Party Nat Cook Flinders Medical Centre worker. Founded the Sammy D Foundation after her son died from a one-punch king hit. [6]
  Independent Leading the CommunityRob de JongeUnsuccessfully sought Liberal preselection. [12] City of Onkaparinga councillor for 8 years, recently defeated. Contested Davenport in 2010. [6]
  Stop Population Growth Now Bob CouchAccountant and other occupations. Upper house candidate at the previous election. [6]
  Independent Continue Such's LegacyDan WoodyattGovernment lawyer with a background in assisting with the implementation of large capital projects and community initiatives. [6] Endorsed by Such's widow. [13]
  Greens Malwina WyraCommerce and Environmental Management Flinders University student. Staffer to Tammy Franks. Candidate in Fisher at the previous election. [6]
  Independent Honest True LocalDan GoldingInvolved with Neighbourhood Watch, Scouts, Air Force Cadets, Youth Advisory Council and the SA Tall Ships Association. [6]

Two-party-preferred history

The two-party-preferred vote in Fisher while Such was an independent: [6]

Election: 2002 2006 2010 2014
Liberal:55.7%40.6%51.9%57.2%
Labor:44.3%59.4%48.1%42.8%

Polling

One opinion poll was conducted and released by the in-house polling group at The Advertiser , Adelaide's main newspaper. Between one and two weeks prior to the by-election, 400 voters were polled in the seat. Voters were randomly selected at the sole pre-poll booth at Happy Valley Shopping Centre, as well as at Aberfoyle Hub. Primary votes saw 34.25 (−0.85) percent to Liberal, 30 percent to Woodyatt, 20.5 (+2.8) percent to Labor, with a collective 15 percent for the remaining five candidates. The Advertiser claimed that a Liberal primary vote below 40 percent and the high vote for Woodyatt with Labor remaining in third place, preferences could have seen Fisher retained by an independent, Woodyatt. [13]

South Australian Newspoll at the time of the by-election recorded a statewide six percent two-party swing from Liberal to Labor.

Result

Labor candidate Nat Cook won the traditionally Liberal seat of Fisher by just nine votes after preferences from a 7.27 percent Liberal to Labor two-party swing, taking Labor from minority to majority government. Nat Cook MP.jpg
Labor candidate Nat Cook won the traditionally Liberal seat of Fisher by just nine votes after preferences from a 7.27 percent Liberal to Labor two-party swing, taking Labor from minority to majority government.
2014 Fisher state by-election [14] [15] [16] [17]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Liberal Heidi Harris7,41336.1+1.0
Labor Nat Cook 5,49526.7+9.0
Independent Continue Such's LegacyDan Woodyatt4,78923.3+23.3
Independent Honest True LocalDan Golding8804.3+4.3
Independent Leading the CommunityRob de Jonge8093.9+3.9
Greens Malwina Wyra7083.4−1.3
Stop Population Growth Now Bob Couch2701.3+1.3
Independent Democrat Jeanie Walker1950.9+0.9
Total formal votes20,55996.1−1.5
Informal votes8413.9+1.5
Turnout 21,40082.9−10.5
Notional three-candidate-preferred count
Liberal Heidi Harris8,12839.5
Labor Nat Cook 6,32530.8
Independent Dan Woodyatt6,10629.7
Two-party-preferred result
Labor Nat Cook 10,28450.02+7.27
Liberal Heidi Harris10,27549.98−7.27
Labor gain from Independent Swing +7.27
Instant-runoff voting method. IRV counting flowchart.svg
Instant-runoff voting method.

Though the Liberals were favourites to win the traditionally Liberal seat, [3] Labor's Nat Cook won the by-election by five votes with Woodyatt preferences, a 50.02 percent two-party-preferred vote from a 7.27 percent swing away from the Liberals, resulting in a change from minority to majority government. Despite this, the Jay Weatherill Labor government kept crossbench MPs Geoff Brock and Martin Hamilton-Smith in cabinet, giving the government a 26 to 21 parliamentary majority. The Liberals were successful in requesting a re-count which occurred on 15 December. [4] [5] [6] [18] [19]

Labor achieved majority government at a state level one week prior at the 2014 Victorian election.

ABC psephologist Antony Green described the by-election as a "very poor result for the Liberal Party in South Australia both state and federally", and that a fourth term government gaining a seat at a by-election was unprecedented in Australian history. [7] Much of the anti-Liberal swing was attributed to the unpopularity of then Prime Minister Tony Abbott, and additionally, the remark from then Defence Minister David Johnston several days before the by-election, where he stated he wouldn't trust South Australia's Australian Submarine Corporation to "build a canoe". [8] [9] [10] [11]

Former Liberal leader Iain Evans in Davenport resigned from parliament on 30 October 2014 which triggered a 2015 Davenport by-election for 31 January. [20] [21] [22] [23] Just a couple of days before the Davenport by-election, Abbott's infamous knighting of Prince Philip occurred. [24] [25] Liberal Sam Duluk won the seat despite a five percent two-party swing, turning the historically safe seat of Davenport in to a two-party marginal seat for the first time. [26] ABC psephologist Antony Green described it as "another poor result for the South Australian Liberal Party". [27]

See also

Related Research Articles

The Division of Boothby is an Australian federal electoral division in South Australia. The division was one of the seven established when the former Division of South Australia was redistributed on 2 October 1903 and is named after William Boothby (1829–1903), the Returning Officer for the first federal election.

The Division of Hindmarsh is an Australian Electoral Division in South Australia covering the western suburbs of Adelaide. The division was one of the seven established when the former Division of South Australia was split on 2 October 1903, and was first contested at the 1903 election, though on vastly different boundaries. The Division is named after Sir John Hindmarsh, who was Governor of South Australia from 1836 to 1838. The 78 km² seat extends from the coast in the west to South Road in the east, covering the suburbs of Ascot Park, Brooklyn Park, Edwardstown, Fulham, Glenelg, Grange, Henley Beach, Kidman Park, Kurralta Park, Morphettville, Plympton, Richmond, Semaphore Park, Torrensville, West Beach and West Lakes. The Adelaide International Airport is centrally located in the electorate, making noise pollution a prominent local issue, besides the aged care needs of the relatively elderly population − the seat has one of Australia's highest proportions of citizens over the age of 65. Progressive boundary redistributions over many decades transformed Hindmarsh from a safe Labor seat in to a marginal seat often won by the government of the day.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Electoral district of Fisher</span> Former state electoral district of South Australia

Fisher was an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. It was created in 1970 and named after Sir James Fisher, a colonial politician and the first mayor of Adelaide. It was abolished in a 2016 redistribution and its last MP, Nat Cook was elected to represent its replacement, Hurtle Vale, at the 2018 state election. It covers a 94.2 km2 suburban and semi rural area on the southern fringes of Adelaide, taking in the suburbs of Aberfoyle Park, Chandlers Hill, Cherry Gardens, Coromandel East, Happy Valley, Reynella East and parts of Clarendon, O'Halloran Hill and Woodcroft.

The term swing refers to the extent of change in voter support, typically from one election or opinion poll to another, expressed as a positive or negative percentage point. For the Australian House of Representatives and the lower houses of the parliaments of all the states and territories except Tasmania and the ACT, Australia employs preferential voting in single-member constituencies. Under the full-preference instant-runoff voting system, in each seat the candidate with the lowest vote is eliminated and their preferences are distributed, which is repeated until only two candidates remain. While every seat has a two-candidate preferred (TCP) result, seats where the major parties have come first and second are commonly referred to as having a two-party-preferred (TPP) result. The concept of "swing" in Australian elections is not simply a function of the difference between the votes of the two leading candidates, as it is in Britain. To know the majority of any seat, and therefore the swing necessary for it to change hands, it is necessary to know the preferences of all the voters, regardless of their first preference votes. It is not uncommon in Australia for candidates who have comfortable leads on the first count to fail to win the seat, because "preference flows" go against them.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Electoral district of Davenport</span> State electoral district of South Australia

Davenport is a single-member electoral district for the South Australian House of Assembly. It is named after nineteenth-century pioneer and politician Sir Samuel Davenport. Davenport is a 57.7 km² electorate covering part of outer suburban Adelaide and the southern foothills of the Adelaide Hills. It takes in the suburbs of Aberfoyle Park, Bedford Park, Bellevue Heights, Chandlers Hill, Cherry Gardens, and Flagstaff Hill; and part of Happy Valley.

Iain Frederick Evans is a former Australian politician. He was leader of the South Australian Division of the Liberal Party of Australia from 2006 to 2007.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Bob Such</span> Australian politician

Robert Bruce Such was a South Australian politician. He was the member for the seat of Fisher in the South Australian House of Assembly from 1989 until his death in 2014. He defeated Labor MP Philip Tyler at the 1989 election and was a member of the Liberals until 2000 when he became an independent. Such was Minister for Employment, Training and Further Education, and Minister for Youth Affairs, in the Brown Liberal government from 1993 to 1996. He served as Speaker of the South Australian House of Assembly for the Rann Labor government from 2005 to 2006. Such was joint Father of the House with Michael Atkinson from 2012.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Martin Hamilton-Smith</span> Australian politician

Martin Leslie James Hamilton-Smith is a former Australian politician who represented the South Australian House of Assembly seat of Waite from the 1997 election until his retirement in 2018. First elected as a candidate for the Liberal Party, Hamilton-Smith was the state parliamentary leader of the Liberal Party and the Leader of the Opposition in South Australia from 2007 to 2009, and a Minister in the Kerin Liberal government from 2001 to 2002.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Isobel Redmond</span> Australian politician

Isobel Mary Redmond is a former Australian politician who was the member for the electoral district of Heysen in the House of Assembly from 2002 to 2018. She was the parliamentary leader of the South Australian Division of the Liberal Party of Australia and the Leader of the Opposition in the Parliament of South Australia between 2009 and 2013, and was the first female leader of a South Australian state major party. Under Redmond, the Liberals won 18 of 47 seats in the South Australian House of Assembly at the 2010 election, a gain of three from the 2006 election. She resigned as leader of the Liberal Party on 31 January 2013.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2010 South Australian state election</span>

The 2010 South Australian state election elected members to the 52nd Parliament of South Australia on 20 March 2010. All seats in the House of Assembly or lower house, whose current members were elected at the 2006 election, and half the seats in the Legislative Council or upper house, last filled at the 2002 election, became vacant.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2009 Frome state by-election</span>

A by-election was held for the South Australian House of Assembly seat of Frome on 17 January 2009. This was triggered by the resignation of former Premier and state Liberal MHA Rob Kerin. The seat had been retained by the Liberals at the 2006 state election on a 3.4 per cent margin, and at the 2002 state election on an 11.5 per cent margin.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Geoff Brock</span> Australian politician

Geoffrey Graeme Brock is an Australian politician. He is an Independent member in the South Australian House of Assembly, representing the seat of Stuart since the 2022 South Australian state election. Prior to this, he represented the seat of Frome from the 2009 Frome by-election until a redistribution leading up to the 2022 state election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 South Australian state election</span>

The 2014 South Australian state election elected members to the 53rd Parliament of South Australia on 15 March 2014, to fill all 47 seats in the House of Assembly and 11 of 22 seats in the Legislative Council. The 12-year-incumbent Australian Labor Party (SA) government, led by Premier Jay Weatherill, won its fourth consecutive four-year term in government, a record 16 years of Labor government, defeating the opposition Liberal Party of Australia (SA), led by Opposition Leader Steven Marshall.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Steven Marshall</span> 46th Premier of South Australia

Steven Spence Marshall is an former Australian politician who served as the 46th premier of South Australia between 2018 and 2022. He was a member of the South Australian Division of the Liberal Party of Australia in the South Australian House of Assembly from 2010 until 2024, representing the electorate of Dunstan.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2012 Port Adelaide state by-election</span>

A by-election occurred in the South Australian House of Assembly seat of Port Adelaide on 11 February 2012. Labor's Susan Close won the seat on a 52.9 percent two-candidate-preferred (TCP) vote. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of former Deputy Premier, Treasurer and state Labor MHA Kevin Foley.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2012 Ramsay state by-election</span>

A by-election occurred in the South Australian House of Assembly seat of Ramsay on 11 February 2012. The seat was won by Labor candidate Zoe Bettison. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of former Premier and state Labor MHA Mike Rann.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2018 South Australian state election</span>

The 2018 South Australian state election to elect members to the 54th Parliament of South Australia was held on 17 March 2018. All 47 seats in the House of Assembly or lower house, whose members were elected at the 2014 election, and 11 of 22 seats in the Legislative Council or upper house, last filled at the 2010 election, were contested. The record-16-year-incumbent Australian Labor Party (SA) government led by Premier Jay Weatherill was seeking a fifth four-year term, but was defeated by the opposition Liberal Party of Australia (SA), led by Opposition Leader Steven Marshall. Nick Xenophon's new SA Best party unsuccessfully sought to obtain the balance of power.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2015 Davenport state by-election</span>

A by-election for the seat of Davenport in the South Australian House of Assembly was held on 31 January 2015. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Liberal Party of Australia MP and former Liberal leader Iain Evans, who retained the seat at the 2014 election on a 58.1 (−2.8) percent two-party-preferred vote. Liberal Sam Duluk went on to win the seat despite a five-point two-party swing, turning the historically safe seat of Davenport in to a marginal for the first time.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Nat Cook</span> Australian politician

Natalie Fleur Cook is an Australian politician and anti-violence campaigner. She became an anti-violence campaigner after the death of her son in a one-punch attack in 2008.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 South Australian state election</span>

The 2022 South Australian state election was held on 19 March 2022 to elect members to the 55th Parliament of South Australia. All 47 seats in the House of Assembly, and half the seats in the Legislative Council were up for re-election.

References

  1. Wills, Daniel (20 October 2014). "Voters to go to the polls in Bob Such's seat of Fisher on December 6 as Liberal Iain Evans also retires and triggers Davenport by-election". The Courier-Mail. Retrieved 20 October 2014.
  2. "South Australia set for two by-elections, in Fisher and Davenport state electorates". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 20 October 2014. Retrieved 20 October 2014.
  3. 1 2 By-election for Bob Such's seat of Fisher expected to put pressure on Weatherill Government: ABC 13 October 2014
  4. 1 2 3 Fisher by-election win for Labor gives Weatherill Government majority in SA: ABC 13 December 2014
  5. 1 2 Labor claims victory in Fisher by-election: The Advertiser 13 December 2014
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 2014 Fisher By-election: Antony Green ABC
  7. 1 2 Likely Shock Labor By-Election Win in SA: The Conversation 4 December 2014
  8. 1 2 Defence Minister says he 'wouldn't trust' Australian Submarine Corporation to build a canoe: ABC 25 November 2014
  9. 1 2 Is Tony Abbott the hazard for Liberals in Fisher by-election?: The Advertiser 30 November 2014 [ permanent dead link ]
  10. 1 2 Abbott government forced into sub-mission after shock loss in South Australia: Sydney Morning Herald 9 December 2014
  11. 1 2 Federal Libs blamed for big swing to Labor in SA: The New Daily 8 December 2014
  12. Cakewalk for Labor in Jay's old haunt: InDaily 24 January 2019
  13. 1 2 Polling gives independent candidate Dan Woodyatt strong position in Fisher by-election: The Advertiser 1 December 2014
  14. Results, 2014 Fisher by-election: Antony Green ABC
  15. Results, 2014 Fisher by-election: ECSA
  16. Polling booth results, 2014 Fisher by-election: ECSA
  17. Final results, 2014 Fisher by-election: ECSA Archived 2014-12-13 at the Wayback Machine
  18. Commentary, 2014 Fisher by-election: Antony Green ABC
  19. Fisher by-election live: The Poll Bludger
  20. Iain Evans to quit, Senior Liberal will retire from SA politics and force by-election: ABC 6 June 2014
  21. Speaker Michael Atkinson defends decision to separate two SA by-elections: ABC 21 October 2014
  22. Departing SA Liberal Iain Evans takes final swipe at parliamentary colleagues: ABC 30 October 2014
  23. Davenport by-election date in South Australia set for January 31: ABC 13 November 2014
  24. Davenport by-election: Tony Abbott's decision to knight Prince Philip could affect voters: ABC 29 January 2015
  25. Large swing to Labor at SA by-election another warning to PM Abbott: Nine News 2 February 2015
  26. Liberals withstand swing to win by-election in South Australian seat of Davenport: ABC 31 January 2015
  27. 2015 Davenport by-election commentary: Antony Green ABC