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![]() Electoral district of Fisher in the southern metropolitan area of Adelaide. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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A by-election for the seat of Fisher in the South Australian House of Assembly was held on 6 December 2014. The by-election was triggered by the death of independent MP Bob Such on 11 October 2014. Originally elected to Fisher for the Liberal Party of Australia at the 1989 election, defeating the one-term Australian Labor Party MP Philip Tyler, Such left the party in 2000. [1] [2]
Though the Liberals were favourites to win the traditionally Liberal seat, [3] Labor's Nat Cook won the by-election by five votes, a 50.02 percent two-party-preferred vote from a 7.27-point swing away from the Liberals, resulting in a change from minority to majority government. [4] [5] [6] Despite this, the Jay Weatherill Labor government kept crossbench MPs Geoff Brock and Martin Hamilton-Smith in cabinet, giving the government a 26 to 21 parliamentary majority. [4]
ABC psephologist Antony Green described the by-election as a "very poor result for the Liberal Party in South Australia both state and federally", and that a fourth term government gaining a seat at a by-election was unprecedented in Australian history. [7] Much of the anti-Liberal swing was attributed to the unpopularity of then Prime Minister Tony Abbott, and additionally, the remark from then Defence Minister David Johnston several days before the Fisher by-election, where he stated he wouldn't trust South Australia's Australian Submarine Corporation to "build a canoe". [8] [9] [10] [11]
Date | Event [6] |
---|---|
8 November 2014 | Writ of election issued by the Speaker |
18 November 2014 | Close of electoral rolls |
21 November 2014 | Close of nominations |
6 December 2014 | Polling day, between the hours of 8 am and 6 pm |
8 candidates in ballot paper order [6] | |||
---|---|---|---|
Liberal Party of Australia | Heidi Harris | Former Lord Melbourne Hotel manager and political adviser to Duncan McFetridge. Liberal candidate for Elder in 2002. [6] | |
Independent Australian Democrats | Jeanie Walker | Property investing and management, Aboriginal Family Violence Case Manager. [6] Australian Democrats, No Rodeo and independent candidate at prior elections. | |
Australian Labor Party | Nat Cook | Flinders Medical Centre worker. Founded the Sammy D Foundation after her son died from a one-punch king hit. [6] | |
Independent Leading the Community | Rob de Jonge | Unsuccessfully sought Liberal preselection. [12] City of Onkaparinga councillor for 8 years, recently defeated. Contested Davenport in 2010. [6] | |
Stop Population Growth Now | Bob Couch | Accountant and other occupations. Upper house candidate at the previous election. [6] | |
Independent Continue Such's Legacy | Dan Woodyatt | Government lawyer with a background in assisting with the implementation of large capital projects and community initiatives. [6] Endorsed by Such's widow. [13] | |
Greens | Malwina Wyra | Commerce and Environmental Management Flinders University student. Staffer to Tammy Franks. Candidate in Fisher at the previous election. [6] | |
Independent Honest True Local | Dan Golding | Involved with Neighbourhood Watch, Scouts, Air Force Cadets, Youth Advisory Council and the SA Tall Ships Association. [6] | |
The two-party-preferred vote in Fisher while Such was an independent: [6]
Election: | 2002 | 2006 | 2010 | 2014 |
Liberal: | 55.7% | 40.6% | 51.9% | 57.2% |
Labor: | 44.3% | 59.4% | 48.1% | 42.8% |
One opinion poll was conducted and released by the in-house polling group at The Advertiser , Adelaide's main newspaper. Between one and two weeks prior to the by-election, 400 voters were polled in the seat. Voters were randomly selected at the sole pre-poll booth at Happy Valley Shopping Centre, as well as at Aberfoyle Hub. Primary votes saw 34.25 (−0.85) percent to Liberal, 30 percent to Woodyatt, 20.5 (+2.8) percent to Labor, with a collective 15 percent for the remaining five candidates. The Advertiser claimed that a Liberal primary vote below 40 percent and the high vote for Woodyatt with Labor remaining in third place, preferences could have seen Fisher retained by an independent, Woodyatt. [13]
South Australian Newspoll at the time of the by-election recorded a statewide six percent two-party swing from Liberal to Labor.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Liberal | Heidi Harris | 7,413 | 36.1 | +1.0 | |
Labor | Nat Cook | 5,495 | 26.7 | +9.0 | |
Independent Continue Such's Legacy | Dan Woodyatt | 4,789 | 23.3 | +23.3 | |
Independent Honest True Local | Dan Golding | 880 | 4.3 | +4.3 | |
Independent Leading the Community | Rob de Jonge | 809 | 3.9 | +3.9 | |
Greens | Malwina Wyra | 708 | 3.4 | −1.3 | |
Stop Population Growth Now | Bob Couch | 270 | 1.3 | +1.3 | |
Independent Democrat | Jeanie Walker | 195 | 0.9 | +0.9 | |
Total formal votes | 20,559 | 96.1 | −1.5 | ||
Informal votes | 841 | 3.9 | +1.5 | ||
Turnout | 21,400 | 82.9 | −10.5 | ||
Notional three-candidate-preferred count | |||||
Liberal | Heidi Harris | 8,128 | 39.5 | ||
Labor | Nat Cook | 6,325 | 30.8 | ||
Independent | Dan Woodyatt | 6,106 | 29.7 | ||
Two-party-preferred result | |||||
Labor | Nat Cook | 10,284 | 50.02 | +7.27 | |
Liberal | Heidi Harris | 10,275 | 49.98 | −7.27 | |
Labor gain from Independent | Swing | +7.27 | |||
Though the Liberals were favourites to win the traditionally Liberal seat, [3] Labor's Nat Cook won the by-election by five votes with Woodyatt preferences, a 50.02 percent two-party-preferred vote from a 7.27 percent swing away from the Liberals, resulting in a change from minority to majority government. Despite this, the Jay Weatherill Labor government kept crossbench MPs Geoff Brock and Martin Hamilton-Smith in cabinet, giving the government a 26 to 21 parliamentary majority. The Liberals were successful in requesting a re-count which occurred on 15 December. [4] [5] [6] [18] [19]
Labor achieved majority government at a state level one week prior at the 2014 Victorian election.
ABC psephologist Antony Green described the by-election as a "very poor result for the Liberal Party in South Australia both state and federally", and that a fourth term government gaining a seat at a by-election was unprecedented in Australian history. [7] Much of the anti-Liberal swing was attributed to the unpopularity of then Prime Minister Tony Abbott, and additionally, the remark from then Defence Minister David Johnston several days before the by-election, where he stated he wouldn't trust South Australia's Australian Submarine Corporation to "build a canoe". [8] [9] [10] [11]
Former Liberal leader Iain Evans in Davenport resigned from parliament on 30 October 2014 which triggered a 2015 Davenport by-election for 31 January. [20] [21] [22] [23] Just a couple of days before the Davenport by-election, Abbott's infamous knighting of Prince Philip occurred. [24] [25] Liberal Sam Duluk won the seat despite a five percent two-party swing, turning the historically safe seat of Davenport in to a two-party marginal seat for the first time. [26] ABC psephologist Antony Green described it as "another poor result for the South Australian Liberal Party". [27]
The Division of Boothby is an Australian federal electoral division in South Australia. The division was one of the seven established when the former Division of South Australia was redistributed on 2 October 1903 and is named after William Boothby (1829–1903), the Returning Officer for the first federal election.
The Division of Hindmarsh is an Australian Electoral Division in South Australia covering the western suburbs of Adelaide. The division was one of the seven established when the former Division of South Australia was split on 2 October 1903, and was first contested at the 1903 election, though on vastly different boundaries. The Division is named after Sir John Hindmarsh, who was Governor of South Australia from 1836 to 1838. The 78 km² seat extends from the coast in the west to South Road in the east, covering the suburbs of Ascot Park, Brooklyn Park, Edwardstown, Fulham, Glenelg, Grange, Henley Beach, Kidman Park, Kurralta Park, Morphettville, Plympton, Richmond, Semaphore Park, Torrensville, West Beach and West Lakes. The Adelaide International Airport is centrally located in the electorate, making noise pollution a prominent local issue, besides the aged care needs of the relatively elderly population − the seat has one of Australia's highest proportions of citizens over the age of 65. Progressive boundary redistributions over many decades transformed Hindmarsh from a safe Labor seat in to a marginal seat often won by the government of the day.
Fisher was an electoral district of the House of Assembly in the Australian state of South Australia. It was created in 1970 and named after Sir James Fisher, a colonial politician and the first mayor of Adelaide. It was abolished in a 2016 redistribution and its last MP, Nat Cook was elected to represent its replacement, Hurtle Vale, at the 2018 state election. It covers a 94.2 km2 suburban and semi rural area on the southern fringes of Adelaide, taking in the suburbs of Aberfoyle Park, Chandlers Hill, Cherry Gardens, Coromandel East, Happy Valley, Reynella East and parts of Clarendon, O'Halloran Hill and Woodcroft.
The term swing refers to the extent of change in voter support, typically from one election or opinion poll to another, expressed as a positive or negative percentage point. For the Australian House of Representatives and the lower houses of the parliaments of all the states and territories except Tasmania and the ACT, Australia employs preferential voting in single-member constituencies. Under the full-preference instant-runoff voting system, in each seat the candidate with the lowest vote is eliminated and their preferences are distributed, which is repeated until only two candidates remain. While every seat has a two-candidate preferred (TCP) result, seats where the major parties have come first and second are commonly referred to as having a two-party-preferred (TPP) result. The concept of "swing" in Australian elections is not simply a function of the difference between the votes of the two leading candidates, as it is in Britain. To know the majority of any seat, and therefore the swing necessary for it to change hands, it is necessary to know the preferences of all the voters, regardless of their first preference votes. It is not uncommon in Australia for candidates who have comfortable leads on the first count to fail to win the seat, because "preference flows" go against them.
Davenport is a single-member electoral district for the South Australian House of Assembly. It is named after nineteenth-century pioneer and politician Sir Samuel Davenport. Davenport is a 57.7 km² electorate covering part of outer suburban Adelaide and the southern foothills of the Adelaide Hills. It takes in the suburbs of Aberfoyle Park, Bedford Park, Bellevue Heights, Chandlers Hill, Cherry Gardens, and Flagstaff Hill; and part of Happy Valley.
Iain Frederick Evans is a former Australian politician. He was leader of the South Australian Division of the Liberal Party of Australia from 2006 to 2007.
Robert Bruce Such was a South Australian politician. He was the member for the seat of Fisher in the South Australian House of Assembly from 1989 until his death in 2014. He defeated Labor MP Philip Tyler at the 1989 election and was a member of the Liberals until 2000 when he became an independent. Such was Minister for Employment, Training and Further Education, and Minister for Youth Affairs, in the Brown Liberal government from 1993 to 1996. He served as Speaker of the South Australian House of Assembly for the Rann Labor government from 2005 to 2006. Such was joint Father of the House with Michael Atkinson from 2012.
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