2014 Tasmanian state election

Last updated

2014 Tasmanian state election
Flag of Tasmania.svg
←  2010 15 March 2014 2018  →
All 25 seats in the House of Assembly
13 seats needed for a majority
 First partySecond partyThird party
  Will Hodgman apples cropped.jpg Lara Giddings.jpg Nick McKim June 2010.jpg
Leader Will Hodgman Lara Giddings Nick McKim
Party Liberal Labor Greens
Leader since30 March 200624 January 20117 July 2008
Leader's seat Franklin Franklin Franklin
Last election10 seats; 38.99%10 seats; 36.88%5 seats; 21.61%
Seats won15 seats7 seats3 seats
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 5Decrease2.svg 3Decrease2.svg 2
Popular vote167,05189,13045,098
Percentage51.22%27.33%13.83%
SwingIncrease2.svg 12.23Decrease2.svg 9.55Decrease2.svg 7.78
2014 Tasmanian state election.svg
Election results and largest party by first preference by division
Premier before election

Lara Giddings
Labor

Elected Premier

Will Hodgman
Liberal

The 2014 Tasmanian state election was held on 15 March 2014 to elect all 25 members to the House of Assembly. [1] The 16-year incumbent Labor government, led by the Premier of Tasmania Lara Giddings, sought to win a fifth consecutive term in government, but was defeated by the Liberal opposition, led by Opposition Leader Will Hodgman, in a landslide victory. [2] Also contesting the election was the Greens led by Nick McKim. The Palmer United Party made a significant effort in the election.

Contents

The House of Assembly uses the proportional Hare-Clark system to elect 25 members in five constituencies electing five members each. Elections to the Legislative Council are conducted separately from House of Assembly elections. The election was conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.

Before the election, Hodgman had indicated that he would only govern in majority. ABC News election analyst Antony Green suggested Hodgman's promise could have come back to haunt him if Palmer United were to siphon off enough votes to deny the Liberals enough seats for a majority in their own right. [3] However, this became moot after the Liberals picked up an additional seat in every electorate except Denison, assuring them a majority. [4] By 10:00 pm on election night, with the Liberals assured of winning at least 14 seats, Giddings conceded defeat on behalf of Labor. [5] Ultimately, the Liberals won 15 seats, a decisive majority. [6] Although this was just two more seats than necessary for a majority, under Tasmanian electoral practice of the time, winning 15 seats was considered a comprehensive victory. [3]

Hodgman took office on 31 March 2014, becoming only the fifth non-Labor premier in 80 years and only the third to govern in majority.

Later, Giddings resigned as Labor party leader, and was succeeded by outgoing Deputy Premier Bryan Green on 31 March 2014.

Results

Summary of the Results of the 2014 Tasmanian state election, House of Assembly [7]
2014 TAS House of Assembly.svg
PartyVotes%+/–Seats+/–
Liberal 167,05151.22Increase2.svg 12.2315Increase2.svg 5
Labor 89,13027.33Decrease2.svg 9.557Decrease2.svg 3
Greens 45,09813.83Decrease2.svg 7.783Decrease2.svg 2
Palmer United 16,1984.97New0New
National 2,6550.81Increase2.svg 0.810Steady2.svg
Christians 1,2150.37Increase2.svg 0.370Steady2.svg
Socialist Alliance 6640.20Steady2.svg0Steady2.svg
Independents 4,1521.27Decrease2.svg 1.050Steady2.svg
Total326,163100.00–25–
Valid votes326,16395.20
Invalid/blank votes16,4324.80Increase2.svg 0.30
Total votes342,595100.00–
Registered voters/turnout366,44293.49Increase2.svg 0.68

Primary vote percentages by division

BassBraddonDenisonFranklinLyons
Labor Party 23.27%23.24%33.79%28.61%27.69%
Liberal Party 57.22%58.76%38.28%49.84%51.94%
Tasmanian Greens 12.72%7.03%21.19%16.79%11.40%
Other6.79%10.97%6.74%4.76%8.97%

Current distribution of seats

Damage to ballot papers

On 16 March, the day after the election, the Tasmanian Electoral Commission announced that a machine being used to open envelopes containing postal votes from the Denison electorate had been operated improperly, resulting in damage to 2,338 ballot papers. Whilst 2,175 ballot papers were repaired and admitted to the count, 163 papers were too badly damaged to be used and were counted as informal. [8]

Date

Under section 23 of the Constitution Act 1934, the House of Assembly expires four years from the return of the writs for its election, in this case 7 April 2010. [9] The Governor must issue writs of election between five and ten days thereafter. [10] Nominations must close on a date seven to 21 days after the issuance of the writ, [11] and polling day must be a Saturday between 15 and 30 days after nominations close, [12] making the last possible date 7 June 2014.

On 16 January 2014, Premier Lara Giddings announced she would recall Parliament for a single session on 28 January for the sole purpose of ensuring the validity of permits for the Bell Bay Pulp Mill. She said that once the legislation was passed, she would ask the Governor of Tasmania to prorogue the parliament and issue writs for an election to be held on 15 March. Giddings announced that Greens Nick McKim and Cassy O'Connor would be expelled from cabinet as of 17 January, that the power sharing arrangement between Labor and the Greens was over, and that Labor would no longer govern with Greens in cabinet. [13]

The 2014 South Australian state election occurred on the same day for the third time in a row.

Background

The results from the previous election saw a tie between the two major parties, who both won ten seats. The Greens, led by Nick McKim, won five seats and held the balance of power. The outcome in all five multimember seats was two Labor, two Liberal, and one Green. The Liberals were ahead on the popular vote by a margin of over 6,700 votes and both Premier David Bartlett and Opposition Leader Hodgman agreed that Hodgman thus had the right to form a government. [14] Labor went as far as to vote to relinquish power and advise the Governor, Peter Underwood, to summon Hodgman to be commissioned as the new premier. [15]

However, on 9 April, Underwood recommissioned Bartlett, detailing several reasons for his decision including incumbency and a higher chance of stability. [16] The Liberal Party tabled motions of no-confidence in parliament against the Labor government, but these were unsuccessful. [17]

An interim cabinet was sworn in on 13 April, with Bartlett as Premier and Labor deputy leader Lara Giddings as Deputy Premier. [18] On 24 January 2011, Bartlett stood down from the premiership to be replaced by Giddings who was elected unopposed as Tasmania's first female Premier. [19] [20]

Retiring MPs

Labor

Polling

Polling is regularly conducted for Tasmanian state politics by Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS). Unlike other pollsters, EMRS don't "prompt" their respondents for an answer on the first request, contributing to the large "undecided" percentage. The sample size for each poll is 1,000 Tasmanian voters. [23]

House of Assembly (lower house) polling
Political parties
ALPLibGrnPUPIndUndecided
Feb 201420%44%15%5%3%13%
Nov 201320%44%17%5%4%10%
Sep 201325%46%13%0%4%12%
May 201319%40%9%–2%30%
Feb 201323%44%11%–3%29%
Nov 201220%43%12%–2%24%
Aug 201218%38%17%–2%25%
May 201217%38%17%–4%25%
Feb 201219%39%14%–3%25%
Nov 201117%42%15%–2%24%
Aug 201116%44%14%–4%22%
May 201119%38%17%–4%22%
Feb 201120%36%20%–2%23%
Nov 201023%35%20%–3%19%
Aug 201029%30%23%–3%14%
May 201023%38%24%–3%12%
2010 election 36.9%39.0%21.6%–2.5%–
Feb 201023%30%22%–2%23%
Polling conducted by EMRS.
Preferred Premier polling^
Labor
Giddings		Liberal
Hodgman		Green
McKim
Feb 201421%48%13%
Nov 201322%47%12%
Sep 201318%48%12%
May 201325%46%10%
Feb 201324%46%13%
Nov 201225%47%11%
Aug 201222%45%15%
May 201221%43%17%
Feb 201224%44%15%
Nov 201119%48%14%
Aug 201119%52%13%
May 201122%42%18%
Feb 201127%38%16%
Nov 201023%139%21%
Aug 201027%134%22%
May 201026%140%23%
2010 election –––
Feb 201029%134%21%
Polling conducted by EMRS.
^ Remainder were "uncommitted".
1 David Bartlett.

See also

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References

  1. ↑ "Tasmanian Premier names election date as March 15". ABC News . Australia. 16 January 2014.
  2. ↑ "Final Figures for the 2014 Tasmanian Election". ABC News. 26 March 2014.
  3. 1 2 Green, Antony. 2014 Tasmanian election preview. ABC News, 2014-01-17.
  4. ↑ Lehman, Ros (15 March 2014). "Tasmania votes: Liberals sweep to power, ending 16 years of Labor rule". ABC News .
  5. ↑ Atherton, Ben (15 March 2014). "Liberals swept to power in Tasmania, Labor fights to the death in South Australia". ABC News . Australia. Retrieved 15 March 2014.
  6. ↑ McCann, Joy. "Tasmanian state election 2014: an overview". Parliament of Australia. Retrieved 4 December 2017.
  7. ↑ "2014 House of Assembly Results". Tasmanian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 6 April 2014. Retrieved 30 March 2014.
  8. ↑ Damage to Denison ballot papers Archived 4 March 2015 at the Wayback Machine , Tasmanian Electoral Commission, 16 March 2014.
  9. ↑ "Parliamentary Elections, 2007–2010" (PDF). Tasmanian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original (PDF) on 20 March 2012. Retrieved 12 April 2012.
  10. ↑ Electoral Act 2004, section 63.
  11. ↑ Electoral Act 2004, section 69.
  12. ↑ Electoral Act 2004, section 70.
  13. ↑ Denholm, Matthew (16 January 2014). "Lara Giddings sets March 15 as date for Tasmania election". The Australian. Retrieved 16 January 2014.
  14. ↑ "Hodgman in box seat after Tasmania count complete". ABC Online. 31 March 2010. Retrieved 10 April 2010.
  15. ↑ Denholm, Matthew (1 April 2010). "Bartlett's Labor gives up power in Tasmania to Will Hodgman's Liberals". The Australian . Retrieved 10 April 2010.
  16. ↑ Hon Peter Underwood AC (9 April 2010). "The reasons of the Governor of Tasmania for the commissioning of the Honourable David Bartlett to form a government following the 2010 House of Assembly Election" (PDF). Archived from the original (doc) on 2 May 2013. Retrieved 4 December 2017.
  17. ↑ Labor, Greens defeat 'no confidence' move, ABC News, 5 May 2010.
  18. ↑ Media ban as Bartlett government sworn in, ABC News, 13 April 2010.
  19. ↑ "Bartlett confirms resignation on Facebook". Abc.net.au. 23 January 2011. Retrieved 1 February 2012.
  20. ↑ "Tasmanian premier resigns". Smh.com.au. 23 January 2011. Retrieved 1 February 2012.
  21. ↑ Prismall, Barry (6 June 2013). "Polley retires with House in order". The Examiner. Retrieved 26 January 2014.
  22. ↑ Smith, Matt (30 June 2013). "Giddings' agenda for change". The Mercury. Retrieved 26 January 2014.
  23. ↑ Archived 5 December 2013 at the Wayback Machine , EMRS, November 2013.

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