2024 Tasmanian state election

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2024 Tasmanian state election
Flag of Tasmania.svg
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All 35 seats in the House of Assembly
18 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered408,197
Turnout372,077 (91.2% Decrease2.svg 1.2)
 First partySecond party
 
Jeremy-Rockliff b.jpg
Rebecca White in Hobart (April 2021) (cropped) 2.jpg
Leader Jeremy Rockliff Rebecca White
Party Liberal Labor
Leader since8 April 20227 July 2021
Leader's seat Braddon Lyons
Last election13 seats, 48.7%9 seats, 28.2%
Seats before11 [a] 8 [b]
Seats won1410
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 3Increase2.svg 2
Popular vote127,837101,113
Percentage36.7%29.0%
SwingDecrease2.svg 12.1Increase2.svg 0.8
 Third partyFourth party
 
Rosalie Woodruff in 2020.jpg
Lambie 2017 (cropped) (cropped).png
Leader Rosalie Woodruff Jacqui Lambie
Party Greens Lambie Network
Leader since13 July 202314 May 2015
Leader's seat Franklin Did not contest [c]
Last election2 seats, 12.4%Did not contest
Seats before20
Seats won53
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 3Increase2.svg 3
Popular vote48,43023,260
Percentage13.9%6.7%
SwingIncrease2.svg 1.5Increase2.svg 6.7
2024 Tasmanian state election - Results.svg
Results of the election
Premier before election

Jeremy Rockliff
Liberal

Elected Premier

Jeremy Rockliff
Liberal

The 2024 Tasmanian state election was held on 23 March 2024 to elect all 35 members to the House of Assembly.

Contents

The House of Assembly uses the proportional Hare-Clark system of voting, with the 35 members elected from five seven-member constituencies. The Assembly's size was increased from 25 to 35 seats at this election, under the provisions of the Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022, assented to in December 2022. [2] [3] The election was conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission. Elections for the 15-seat single-member district upper house, known as the Legislative Council, which use full-preference instant-runoff voting, are staggered each year and conducted separately from lower house state elections.

The Liberal government, led by Premier Jeremy Rockliff, and the Labor opposition, led by Rebecca White, both attempted to win majority government. The Greens and the Jacqui Lambie Network also contested the election, as well as several independents and other minor parties.

The election resulted in a hung parliament, with the Liberal Party remaining the largest party by both vote share and seat total; winning 14 seats. Labor and the Greens won 10 and five seats respectively, with both parties experiencing only a small increase in their respective vote percentages, despite a large swing against the Liberal Party. The majority of the swing went to independents and the Jacqui Lambie Network, who won three seats in its first state election. Both major parties fell short of a majority, with the Liberals and Labor requiring four and eight seats respectively from the crossbench to form government. [4]

The day after the election, Labor conceded and its leader Rebecca White stated the party would not seek to negotiate with other MPs to form a government, triggering a leadership election. [5] On 10 April, the Liberal Party and Jacqui Lambie Network announced an agreement had been reached for the latter to provide confidence and supply to the government. [6] The second Rockliff ministry was sworn in the following day with Independent MP David O'Byrne providing written assurance of confidence and supply, giving the Liberal party the numbers required to form government. [7] [8]

Ultimately, both O'Byrne and fellow independent Kristie Johnston signed confidence and supply agreements with the government, giving it 19 of the 35 votes on the floor of the parliament. [9] It was the first time that a non-Labor party in Tasmania had won a fourth consecutive term in government since adopting the Liberal banner in 1945. [10]

Date

Under section 23 of the Constitution Act 1934, the House of Assembly was to expire four years from the return of the writs for its election, which took place on 1 May 2021. [11] The Governor must issue writs of election between five and ten days thereafter. [12] Nominations must close on a date seven to twenty-one days after the issuance of the writ, [13] and polling day must be a Saturday between 22 and 30 days after nominations close. [14]

In May 2023, Premier Jeremy Rockliff ruled out holding an early election, in contrast to his predecessor (Peter Gutwein), who called the last state election a year early. [15] However on 14 February 2024, Rockliff visited with Governor Barbara Baker to request that an election be called a year early after the Liberal government was forced into a minority, a request which was accepted. It was the second consecutive occasion the Premier of Tasmania called a snap election after Gutwein called the previous state election a year early for a similar reason.

Key dates

Important dates in relation to the election are: [16]

The TEC estimates the following dates for counting progress: [17]

Background

Previous election

After the snap 2021 election, the Liberal Party successfully won a majority of seats in the Tasmanian House of Assembly. [18] A Liberal MP for Braddon, Adam Brooks, resigned on 14 May 2021 after being charged with firearms offences by Queensland law enforcement. These offences were unauthorised possession of a Category H weapon, unauthorised possession of explosives, and dealing with identity documents. Premier Peter Gutwein said that "I made the decision that under the circumstances of both his mental health and in terms of the fact that he's now facing these new charges, that he won't take his seat in parliament." Greens leader Cassy O'Connor said that "there are now very serious questions to answer about whether or not he was ever considered a legitimate candidate by the Liberal Party", given he resigned "the day the polls [were] declared". Prior claims from women were made before the 2021 election, saying they were catfished by Brooks under the alias "Terry Brooks". [19] Despite the resignation, the Liberal Party's numbers in the House of Assembly were unchanged, due to the replacing member being a member of the party.

DAVID O'BYRNE.jpg
Rebecca White in Hobart (April 2021) (cropped).jpg
David O'Byrne (left) served as Labor leader for 22 days, resigning over sexual harassment allegations. His predecessor as leader, Rebecca White (right) returned to the leadership role after O'Byrne's resignation.

Rebecca White resigned as Labor leader on 15 May 2021, endorsing shadow treasurer David O'Byrne to replace her. [20] [21] On 15 June 2021, it was announced that O'Byrne had been elected as leader of the Tasmanian Labor Party against opponent Shane Broad, winning 72% of the members' vote and 75% of party delegates. [22] After allegations of him sexting and kissing a woman without her consent were revealed, David O'Byrne stood aside from his role as leader of the Labor Party for the length of an investigation on 30 June 2021, with Anita Dow acting as leader during the interim. [23] This was followed by O'Byrne announcing he would resign as leader on 4 July 2021. [24] On 7 July 2021, Rebecca White was elected as leader after a meeting of the Labor parliamentary caucus. [25]

Resignation of Peter Gutwein

On 4 April 2022, Premier Peter Gutwein announced he would quit politics, resigning as Premier and as a member for Bass following the appointment of a new Premier. [26] Jeremy Rockliff, who had been the deputy Liberal leader for 16 years, officially replaced Gutwein as Premier on 8 April 2022, with Bass MP Michael Ferguson as his deputy. [27]

Restoration of 35 seats in Assembly

On 25 May 2022, Premier Rockliff announced his intention to table a bill in State Parliament to restore the state's House of Assembly to 35 seats before the end of 2022. [28] [29] The bill restored the size of parliament to its original number before the reductions to 25 seats was implemented at the 1998 election. The change will come into effect at this election. The legislation was supported by the Liberals, Labor, Greens and independent Kristie Johnston. [30] It became law upon its assent by the Governor in December 2022. [2]

Minority government and a snap election

On 11 May 2023, MPs Lara Alexander and John Tucker resigned as members of the Tasmanian Liberal Party and from all parliamentary committees, and served the remainder of their terms as independents on the crossbench. This left the Liberal party in minority government and requiring 7 seats to reach a majority in the next state election. [31] Tucker and Alexander both agreed to provide the government with confidence and supply. [1]

On 4 January 2024, Tucker threatened to withdraw his support for the government if it failed to act on his demands for mandatory CCTV in all abattoirs in the state and the cessation of planning for a professional sports training facility at Rosny Parklands and a 25,000-seat stadium at Macquarie Point for an Australian Football League (AFL) team in 2028. [32] In response Rockliff stated in an interview on 2 February, that he would ask the Governor for a snap election if Tucker and Alexander failed to agree on a new governing deal that required the two MPs to not support proposals or changes to legislation raised by Labor, Green or other independent MPs in parliament without the permission of the government. [33] On 13 February, Rockliff announced that the Liberal party room had endorsed a snap election due to there being no agreement reached between the government and the independent MPs. [34] The following day Rockliff visited Governor Barbara Baker at Government House, who accepted his request for an election to be held on 23 March 2024. [35]

Changes in parliamentary composition

Since the 2021 election, there were a number of changes within the Tasmanian Parliament which affected the balance of power in the chamber.

SeatBeforeChangeAfter
MemberPartyTypeDateDateMemberParty
Braddon Adam Brooks Liberal Resignation14 March 20213 June 2021 Felix Ellis Liberal
Franklin David O'Byrne Labor Defection23 August 2021 David O'Byrne Independent Labor
Bass Sarah Courtney Liberal Resignation10 February 202225 March 2022 Lara Alexander Liberal
Bass Peter Gutwein Liberal Resignation8 April 202225 April 2022 Simon Wood Liberal
Franklin Jacquie Petrusma Liberal Resignation25 July 202216 August 2022 Dean Young Liberal
Bass Lara Alexander Liberal Defection11 May 2023 Lara Alexander Independent
Lyons John Tucker Liberal Defection11 May 2023 John Tucker Independent
Clark Cassy O'Connor Greens Resignation13 July 20231 August 2023 Vica Bayley Greens
Clark Elise Archer Liberal Defection29 September 2023 Elise Archer Independent
Clark Elise Archer Independent Resignation4 October 202324 October 2023 Simon Behrakis Liberal
Franklin David O'Byrne Independent Labor Defection4 February 2024 David O'Byrne Independent

Candidates

A record 167 candidates nominated. [36]

Parties

Seven parties are registered with the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC). [37] The list of parties registered are:

Status

PartiesLeader(s)IdeologyPositionSeatsStatus
Last election Before electionAfter election
Liberal Jeremy Rockliff Liberalism
Liberal conservatism 		Centre-right
13 / 25
11 / 25
14 / 35
 Minority government
Labor Rebecca White Social democracy Centre-left
9 / 25
8 / 25
10 / 35
Opposition
Greens Rosalie Woodruff Green politics
Progressivism 		Left-wing
2 / 25
2 / 25
5 / 35
Crossbench
Lambie Network Jacqui Lambie Populism Big tent
0 / 25
0 / 25
3 / 35
Crossbench
(With confidence and supply)
Independents ——Various
1 / 25
4 / 25
3 / 35
Crossbench

Campaign

On 29 February 2024, Rockliff stated that if re-elected, his government would remove the protections from 40,000 hectares of protected native forest, allowing them to be logged. [38]

On 10 March 2024, Rockliff committed A$12 million to support building a "chocolate experience" centre near the Hobart Cadbury factory, which would include the "world's largest chocolate fountain". [39]

On 11 March 2024, White put forth plans for a shared-equity housing scheme that would allow couples earning under $200,000 and singles earning under $150,000 to partake in a deal with the government, allowing them to buy a property without a deposit, and the government retaining a 20% share of the property. [40]

On 14 March 2024, social media erupted after a mock website of the Jacqui Lambie Network was discovered online. [41] The URL (lambienetwork.com) is said by various media outlets to be shockingly similar to Lambie's true website, (lambienetwork.com.au). [42] The page is owned by the Liberals as is evident by authorisation details on the page. [43] The page itself is a mock-up of the style of the valid page, instead criticising Senator Lambie and her candidates for a lack of policies in the upcoming election. [44] Lambie described herself as "absolutely ropable" when she became aware of the page. [42] When Premier Rockliff was asked about the page, he stated, "We have every right to point out the policy failings of all political parties." [45] The Tasmanian Electoral Commission has been contacted about the page. [42]

On 17 March 2024, Rockliff announced an intention to amend the Tasmanian Constitution to add a clause that would legislate that if an MP left the party on which they were elected, they would vacate their seat of parliament. [46] The proposed amendment has been criticised by various officials, including former-Liberal turned independent MP, John Tucker. Tucker designated the legislation as "Rocky's rule or else." Among other criticisms. [47] Rockliff describes it as the only way to ensure a stable government continues throughout the term. [46] Labor candidate for Franklin, Dean Winter, speculates the legislation may be in attempt to prevent candidate Eric Abetz from diverging from the Liberals in event of disagreement on same-sex conversion laws, of which Abetz has countering views to his party. [48]

On 20 March 2024, during the Sky News Australia Peoples Forum debate between White and Rockliff, White pledged that if a Labor government was elected in this election, they will construct a public elective surgery hospital in New Town, Tasmania. The hospital is proposed to have 24 overnight beds, along with 8 theatres. The budget is expected to be $160m, and would be completed by 2027. [49]

The Jacqui Lambie Network ran for parliament with a no policy agenda. [50] [51] [52]

Opinion polling

Polling is regularly conducted for Tasmanian state politics by Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS). The sample size for each EMRS poll is 1,000 Tasmanian voters. [53]

Voting intention

The latest polling by uComms on behalf The Australia Institute indicates that the Liberals will win 13 seats, Labor would win 8, The Greens would win 5, Lambie Network 3, and there would be 6 Independents. This would indicate that neither of the major parties could win a majority, and instead would need to form a minority government with Lambie, Greens or Independent MPs. Although both major parties have expressed a dislike in forming coalition, [54] [55] with Labor outright denying a Greens-Labor coalition, [56] and the Liberals refusing to trade policies. [57] The Greens are holding out hope for a coalition, stating they prefer Labor over Liberals in terms of forming a minority government. [58]

House of Assembly (lower house) polling
DateFirmPolitical parties
Liberal Labor Greens JLN Ind/Other
4–5 March 2024uComms [59] 37%23%14%8%18%
16–28 February 2024Redbridge [60] 33%29%14%10%14%
15–21 February 2024EMRS [61] 39%26%12%9%15%
21 December 2023 – 4 January 2024YouGov [62] 31%27%15%20%7%
30 November 2023EMRS [63] 39%29%12%—19%
15–19 August 2023EMRS [64] 38%32%14%—15%
15–19 May 2023EMRS [65] 36%31%15%—18%
14–19 February 2023EMRS [66] 42%30%13%—15%
8–15 November 2022EMRS [67] 42%29%14%—16%
8–11 August 2022EMRS [68] 41%31%13%—15%
27 May – 2 June 2022EMRS [69] 39%30%13%—18%
28 February – 1 March 2022EMRS [70] 41%31%12%—16%
28 November – 5 December 2021EMRS [71] 49%26%13%—12%
7–9 August 2021EMRS [72] 49%28%13%—10%
1 May 2021 2021 election 48.72%28.20%12.38%—10.71%

Preferred Premier

Preferred Premier polling
DateFirmParty leaders
Rockliff White Unsure
15–21 August 2023EMRS [64] 42%39%18%
15–19 May 2023EMRS [65] 38%40%18%
14–19 February 2023EMRS [66] 44%36%17%
8–15 November 2022EMRS [67] 46%34%18%
8–11 August 2022EMRS47%35%16%
27 May – 2 June 2022EMRS47%34%18%
Jeremy Rockliff replaces Peter Gutwein as Premier and Liberal leader
DateFirmParty leaders
Gutwein White Unsure
28 February – 1 March 2022EMRS52%33%14%
28 November – 5 December 2021EMRS59%29%12%
7–9 August 2021EMRS59%28%11%

Results

2024 TAS House of Assembly.svg
PartyVotes%+/–Seats+/–
Liberal 127,83736.67Decrease2.svg 12.0514Increase2.svg 1
Labor 101,11329.00Increase2.svg 0.8010Increase2.svg 1
Greens 48,43013.89Increase2.svg 1.515Increase2.svg 3
Lambie Network 23,2606.67Increase2.svg 6.673Increase2.svg 3
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 8,1262.33Decrease2.svg 0.710Steady2.svg
Animal Justice 5,2831.52Increase2.svg 0.110Steady2.svg
Local Network 1,0280.29Increase2.svg 0.290Steady2.svg
Independents 33,5359.62Increase2.svg 3.403Increase2.svg 2
Total348,612100.00–35Increase2.svg 10
Valid votes348,61293.69
Invalid/blank votes23,4656.31Increase2.svg 1.18
Total votes372,077100.00–
Registered voters/turnout408,19791.15Decrease2.svg 1.24
Source: TEC, ABC

Primary vote percentages by division

BassBraddonClarkFranklinLyons
Liberal Party 38.0%45.6%27.1%34.0%37.6%
Labor Party 29.8%24.7%30.5%27.3%32.8%
Greens 12.0%6.6%20.9%19.8%10.9%
Lambie 8.1%11.4%N/A4.9%8.3%
Other12.0%11.7%21.6%14.0%10.4%

Distribution of seats

Aftermath

The day after the election, Labor conceded and its leader Rebecca White stated the party was not in a position to form a minority government, causing a leadership election to be held under the party's constitution. [5] Rockliff reportedly began discussions with elected independents and Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) candidates to form a Liberal minority government. [5] On 10 April, the Liberal Party and Jacqui Lambie Network announced an agreement had been reached for the latter to provide confidence and supply to the government. [6] The second Rockliff ministry was sworn in by Governor Barbara Baker the following day, [7] as Rockliff revealed independent MP David O'Byrne had provided a written assurance of confidence and supply votes in parliament, thereby enabling the re-elected government to take office. [8] Letters of confidence and supply assurances were signed by O'Byrne and another independent MP, Kristie Johnston, and were released to the public on 24 April 2024. [9] This gave the Liberal government 19 votes out of 35 in parliament to govern.

The JLN-Liberal arrangement lasted in its original form for only four months, as two of the JLN MPs, Rebekah Pentland and Miriam Beswick, were expelled from the party by party leader Jacqui Lambie, who alleged the two MPs no longer represented the "values of accountability, transparency and integrity". [73] Both Pentland and Beswick stated they intended to remain in parliament as independents and later signed a new confidence and supply agreement with the government. [74] [75]

On 16 September 2024, the sole remaining member of the JLN in parliament, Andrew Jenner, confirmed he was not signing a confidence and supply deal with the Liberal government after the last one fell through. [76]

Notes

  1. ↑ In May 2023 Liberal MHAs Lara Alexander (Bass) and John Tucker (Lyons) resigned from the party and left the government to sit on the crossbench as independents. They agreed to provide the government with confidence and supply. [1]
  2. ↑ Labor Party leader David O'Byrne resigned his position two months after the 2021 state election following misconduct allegations. A month after the allegations were made O'Byrne sat on the crossbench as an Independent Labor MHA.
  3. ↑ Jacqui Lambie sits in the Australian Senate as a senator from Tasmania.

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  2. 1 2 "Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022". legislation.tas.gov.au.
  3. ↑ Rockliff, Jeremy (9 August 2022). "Restoring the size of Parliament". The Department of Premier and Cabinet. Archived from the original on 29 April 2023. Retrieved 29 April 2023.
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  12. ↑ Electoral Act 2004, section 63 Archived 4 March 2016 at the Wayback Machine .
  13. ↑ Electoral Act 2004, section 69 Archived 4 March 2016 at the Wayback Machine .
  14. ↑ Electoral Act 2004, section 70 .
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  17. ↑ "Counting continues after record early voting turnout".
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  30. ↑ Morton, Adam (25 May 2022). "Tasmanian parliament to expand to 35 lower house seats amid concerns about ministerial burnout". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 26 May 2022. Retrieved 26 May 2022.
  31. ↑ "Live: Anger over Hobart AFL stadium sinks Tasmania's government into minority as MPs quit party". ABC News. 11 May 2023. Archived from the original on 23 May 2023. Retrieved 12 May 2023.
  32. ↑ Evan Wallace (4 January 2024). "Tasmanian MP John Tucker threatens to 'bring down' minority Liberal government over animal welfare, AFL deal". ABC News.
  33. ↑ Adam Langenberg (4 February 2024). "Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff calls for independents to be a little less independent or we have an early election". ABC News.
  34. ↑ "Tasmania premier Jeremy Rockliff pulls trigger on early state election". The Guardian. 13 February 2024.
  35. ↑ "IN FULL: Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff announces early election". ABC News. YouTube. 14 February 2024.
  36. ↑ "Record 167 Nominations Received for 2024 State Election". Tasmanian Times.
  37. ↑ "TEC Party Register". www.tec.tas.gov.au. Archived from the original on 22 April 2023. Retrieved 29 August 2022.
  38. ↑ Morton, Adam (29 February 2024). "Tasmanian premier Jeremy Rockliff pledges to open protected native forests to logging". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 11 March 2024.
  39. ↑ Kurmelovs, Royce (10 March 2024). "Pure imagination: Tasmanian premier vows to build world's largest chocolate fountain if re-elected". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 11 March 2024.
  40. ↑ Lohberger, Loretta (11 March 2024). "No deposit, no worries: Is Tasmanian Labor's housing promise all it's cracked up to be?". ABC News. Retrieved 11 March 2024.
  41. ↑ James, Ethan (14 March 2024). "Tas premier defends 'grubby' Lambie campaign website". The Canberra Times. Retrieved 14 March 2024.
  42. 1 2 3 "'Absolutely ropeable': Lambie slams Liberals for using domain name almost identical to her official party site". ABC News. 13 March 2024. Retrieved 14 March 2024.
  43. ↑ "Lambie lashes 'fake' website set up by Liberal Party". The Mercury. 14 March 2024.
  44. ↑ "Jacqui Lambie Network | No policies and no new ideas for Tasmania". www.lambienetwork.com. Retrieved 14 March 2024.
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  46. 1 2 "'Trumpian' move to oust Liberal Party defectors from Tasmanian parliament blasted as 'undemocratic'". ABC News. 16 March 2024. Retrieved 17 March 2024.
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  49. ↑ "Labor to deliver thousands more surgeries with New Town hospital". taslabor.org.au. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
  50. ↑ "The Jacqui Lambie Experience triumphs with absolutely no policies". Crikey. 27 March 2024.
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  54. ↑ "White's 'no deal' claim simply doesn't stack up". Tasmanian Liberals. 13 March 2024. Retrieved 17 March 2024.
  55. ↑ "One claims 'underdog' status. The other says their party's the favourite. But will Tasmanians deliver a stalemate?". ABC News. 15 March 2024. Retrieved 17 March 2024.
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  63. ↑ "Trouble-plagued Liberal government dodges poll damage". 30 November 2023.
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  74. ↑ Rachael Ward (25 August 2024). "Ousted MPs vow to ink new deal with minority premier". CBR City News.
  75. ↑ "Miriam Beswick and Rebekah Pentland sign new deal with Premier Jeremy Rockliff". Pulse Tasmania. 27 August 2024.
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