Next Tasmanian state election

Last updated

Next Tasmanian state election
Flag of Tasmania.svg
  2024 No later than 3 June 2028Next 

All 35 seats in the House of Assembly
18 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Jeremy-Rockliff.jpg
Dean Winter Jobs plan for stadium (cropped).jpg
Leader Jeremy Rockliff Dean Winter
Party Liberal Labor
Leader since8 April 2022 10 April 2024
Leader's seat Braddon Franklin
Last election14 seats, 36.7%10 seats, 29.0%
Current seats1410
Seats neededIncrease2.svg 4Increase2.svg 8

  Rosalie Woodruff in 2020.jpg Lambie 2017 (cropped) (cropped).png
Leader Rosalie Woodruff Jacqui Lambie
Party Greens Lambie Network
Leader since13 July 202314 May 2015
Leader's seat Franklin Ineligible [a]
Last election5 seats, 13.9%3 seats, 6.7%
Current seats51
Seats neededIncrease2.svg 13Increase2.svg 17

Incumbent Premier

Jeremy Rockliff
Liberal Party



The next Tasmanian state election will be held no later than 3 June 2028, to elect all 35 seats in the House of Assembly. The election will be conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC).

Contents

The Liberal government, currently led by Premier Jeremy Rockliff, will attempt to win a fifth consecutive term against the Labor opposition, led by Dean Winter. Minor parties, including the Greens and the Jacqui Lambie Network will also contest the election. The election will be conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.

Background

Previous election

The House of Assembly uses the proportional Hare-Clark system of voting, with the 35 members elected from five seven-member constituencies. The Assembly's size is governed by the provisions of the Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022, assented to in December 2022. [1] [2] Elections for the 15-seat single-member district upper house, known as the Legislative Council, which use full-preference instant-runoff voting, are staggered each year and conducted separately from lower house state elections with the next to be held in 2025. [3]

The Liberal Party won 14 of the 35 seats in the Assembly at the previous election, and formed a minority government with the support of three Jacqui Lambie Network members and two independents, namely Kristie Johnston and David O'Byrne. [4] Labor remained in opposition with 10 members and the Greens won five seats. The new parliament was opened on 14 May 2024, and Labor member Michelle O'Byrne was elected unopposed to the position of Speaker of the Assembly. [5] [6]

Minority government arrangements and changes in parliament

On 24 August 2024, Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) party leader Jacqui Lambie announced the party had expelled MPs Rebekah Pentland and Miriam Beswick over what she described as issues of accountability, transparency and integrity. [7] Both MPs subsequently became independents in the parliament, briefly reducing the government's confidence and supply numbers to 17 out of 35 seats. Shortly thereafter Pentland and Beswick issued a joint statement clarifying they would remain in parliament as independents, and that both would sign a new confidence and supply agreement with the government. [8] This agreement was confirmed on 27 August 2024. [9]

Changes in the Tasmanian parliament after the 2024 election

SeatBeforeChangeAfter
MemberPartyTypeDateDateMemberParty
Braddon Miriam Beswick Jacqui Lambie Network Expulsion24 August 2024 Miriam Beswick Independent
Bass Rebekah Pentland Jacqui Lambie Network Expulsion24 August 2024 Rebekah Pentland Independent

Opinion polling

Voting intention

DateFirmPolitical parties
LIB ALP GRN JLN OTH
5-14 November 2024EMRS [10] 35%31%14%6%14%
2-11 October 2024EMRS [11] 28%26%17%5%1% [b]
14-21 August 2024EMRS [10] 36%27%14%8%15%
August 2024Wolf & Smith [12] [13] 32%23%14%11%20%
16-23 May 2024EMRS [14] 35%28%15%7%15%
23 March 2024 2024 Election 36.7%29%13.9%6.7%13.75





Preferred Premier

DateFirmParty leaders
Rockliff Winter Unsure
5–14 November 2024EMRS [10] 43%37%19%
14–21 August 2024EMRS [10] 45%30%25%
16–23 May 2021EMRS [10] 40%32%26%

Notes

  1. Lambie is currently federal Senator, and therefore ineligible to hold state office concurrently.
  2. 8% unsure/prefer not to say

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tasmanian House of Assembly</span> Lower house of the Parliament of Tasmania

The House of Assembly, or Lower House, is one of the two chambers of the Parliament of Tasmania in Australia. The other is the Legislative Council or Upper House. It sits in Parliament House in the state capital, Hobart.

Michelle Anne O'Byrne is an Australian politician for the Australian Labor Party and since May 2024, the Speaker of the Tasmanian House of Assembly.

Michael Darrel Joseph Ferguson is an Australian politician who served as the Deputy Premier of Tasmania from April 2022 to October 2024. He has been a Liberal Party member of the Tasmanian House of Assembly in the Division of Bass since the 2010 state election. Ferguson was appointed to cabinet after his party's victory in the 2014 state election and has served continuously as Minister in a range of portfolios including Finance, Health, Infrastructure, Transport, State Growth and Science and Technology.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Parliament of Tasmania</span> Bicameral parliament in Tasmania

The Parliament of Tasmania is the bicameral legislature of the Australian state of Tasmania. It follows a Westminster-derived parliamentary system and consists of the governor of Tasmania, the Legislative Council, and the House of Assembly. Since 1841, the Legislative Council has met in Parliament House, Hobart, with the House of Assembly following suit from its establishment in 1856. The Parliament of Tasmania first met in 1856.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2006 Tasmanian state election</span>

An election for the House of Assembly was held in the Australian state of Tasmania on 18 March 2006, the same day as the South Australian elections. The Labor Party led by Premier Paul Lennon, won a third successive majority government term in office, despite predictions the election would result in a minority government. Although there was a small swing against Labor, they finished with 14 seats, and there were no changes in the party composition of the assembly. The Liberal Party led by Rene Hidding gained a small swing and finished with seven seats. The Tasmanian Greens led by Peg Putt suffered a small swing and finished with four seats; meaning no change in seat representation since the last election. Had the Greens lost one of their four seats, they would have lost their status as a major party and would lose financial resources, offices and support staff.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Will Hodgman</span> 45th Premier of Tasmania, Australia

William Edward Felix Hodgman is a former Australian politician and diplomat. He was the premier of Tasmania from 2014 to 2020 and state leader of the Liberal Party from 2006 to 2020. He later served as High Commissioner of Australia to Singapore from 2021 to 2023.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Jeremy Rockliff</span> Australian politician (born 1970)

Jeremy Page Rockliff is an Australian politician. He has served as premier of Tasmania since 2022, as state leader of the Liberal Party. He previously served as deputy premier from 2014 to 2022.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">David O'Byrne</span> Australian politician and trade unionist

David O'Byrne is an Australian trade unionist and politician. A prominent union leader prior to entering politics and the brother of fellow politician Michelle O'Byrne, he has been an Independent member of the Tasmanian House of Assembly since 2024, after previously serving as a Labor Party member from 2018 to 2024, and from 2010 to 2014, representing the electorate of Franklin.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Rebecca White</span> Australian politician

Rebecca Peta White is an Australian politician. She has been a member of the Tasmanian House of Assembly since 2010, representing the seat of Lyons. She was state leader of the Australian Labor Party (ALP) and leader of the opposition from 2017 to 2021 and from 2021 to 2024.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2018 Tasmanian state election</span>

The 2018 Tasmanian state election was held on 3 March 2018 to elect all 25 members of the Tasmanian House of Assembly.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Jacqui Lambie Network</span> Australian political party

The Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) is a political party in Australia, formed in May 2015, bearing the name of its founder, Tasmanian Senator Jacqui Lambie.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2021 Tasmanian state election</span>

The 2021 Tasmanian state election was held on 1 May 2021 to elect all 25 members to the Tasmanian House of Assembly.

Steven Leigh Martin is an Australian politician who was a Senator for Tasmania from February 2018 to June 2019, when he lost his seat at the 2019 federal election. Martin was declared elected to the Senate on a recount when Jacqui Lambie was caught up in the parliamentary eligibility crisis. He took his seat as an independent, before joining the National Party in May 2018 as its first Tasmanian member since the 1920s. He was previously the mayor of the City of Devonport from 2011 to 2018.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tasmanian Labor Party</span> Affiliate of the Labor Party in Tasmania

The Tasmanian Labor Party, officially known as the Australian Labor Party (Tasmanian Branch) and commonly referred to simply as Tasmanian Labor, is the Tasmanian branch of the Australian Labor Party. It has been one of the most successful state Labor parties in Australia in terms of electoral success.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 Tasmanian state election</span> Election for the House of Assembly in the 51st Tasmanian Parliament

The 2024 Tasmanian state election was held on 23 March 2024 to elect all 35 members to the House of Assembly.

Kristie Joy Johnston is an Australian politician. She was elected as the Mayor of City of Glenorchy in 2014 and 2018 and is an Independent member for the seat of Division of Clark, having been elected in the 2021 Tasmanian state election.

Miriam Beswick is an Australian politician from Tasmania who contested the 2024 Tasmanian state election in the Division of Braddon. She was one of three MPs elected in 2024 representing the Jacqui Lambie Network, the others being Rebekah Pentland and Andrew Jenner.

Following the results of the 2024 Tasmanian state election, which resulted in a hung parliament with the Liberal Party winning the most seats, the incumbent Liberal government, led by Premier Jeremy Rockliff, will negotiate with independents and the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) to seek confidence and supply to form a minority government for the party's fourth consecutive term in office.

Rebekah Samantha Pentland is an Australian politician currently serving as one of seven members for Bass in the Tasmanian House of Assembly, and has served in this position since March 2024.

Craig Anthony Garland is an environmentalist Australian politician and fisherman representing the Division of Braddon in the Tasmanian House of Assembly since the 2024 Tasmanian state election.

References

  1. "Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022". legislation.tas.gov.au.
  2. Rockliff, Jeremy (9 August 2022). "Restoring the size of Parliament". The Department of Premier and Cabinet. Archived from the original on 29 April 2023. Retrieved 29 April 2023.
  3. Voting Systems Tasmanian Electoral Commission
  4. Adam Holmes (24 April 2024). "Premier Jeremy Rockliff seals deals with key independents to prop up Tasmanian Liberal government". ABC News .
  5. "Tasmanian Parliament elects Michelle O'Byrne as new speaker in uncontested vote". Pulse Tasmania . 14 May 2024.
  6. Labor's Michelle O'Byrne officially new House of Assembly speaker The Mercury 14 May 2024
  7. "Two Tasmanian MPs booted from Jacqui Lambie Network for 'failing to uphold values'". Pulse Tasmania. 24 August 2024.
  8. "Ousted Jacqui Lambie Network MPs commit to supporting Tasmanian Government". Pulse Tasmania. 25 August 2024.
  9. "Miriam Beswick and Rebekah Pentland sign new deal with Premier Jeremy Rockliff". Pulse Tasmania. 27 August 2024.
  10. 1 2 3 4 5 "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll" (PDF). Enterprise Market and Research Services. 14 November 2024. Retrieved 23 November 2024.
  11. "EMRS Polling October 2024 on the Budget". Pulse Tasmania.
  12. "Polls: Resolve Strategic, RedBridge/Accent MRP poll, Wolf & Smith federal and state (open thread) – The Poll Bludger". www.pollbludger.net. Retrieved 9 September 2024.
  13. "Federal & State Political Poll" (PDF). wolf+smith. August 2024. p. 27.
  14. "Voting intentions dashboard". emrs. Retrieved 28 August 2024.