![]() | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
All 35 seats in the House of Assembly 18 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
The next Tasmanian state election is expected to be held sometime in 2029 to elect all 35 members to the Tasmanian House of Assembly. [4]
The election follows the 2025 Tasmanian state election, which delivered a hung parliament in which no party had a legislative majority. 2025 Tasmanian government formation negotiations proved largely unsuccessful, with then-Labor leader Dean Winter unable to convince crossbenchers to support his bid for government. In the August 2025 no-confidence motion in Rockliff, the Greens, SFF and all independent crossbenchers supported the Liberal government, citing Labor unwillingness to negotiate. [5] Josh Willie took leadership of the Labor Party following the 2025 Tasmanian Labor party leadership election. [6]
Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff is expected to contest the election in attempt to win a sixth consecutive election, with Josh Willie attempting to lead the Labor Party into government for the first time since 2014. [6] The Greens, SFF and other minor parties are also expected to contest.
Parties registered with the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC) are eligible to contest the election. [7] Seven parties were registered as at 22 August 2025:
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Political parties | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIB | ALP | GRN | SFF | NAT | IND | OTH | ||||
25–28 Aug 2025 | EMRS [8] [9] | 1,047 | ±3.02% | 38% | 24% | 13% | — | — | 19% | 6% |
20 Jul 2025 | 2025 election | 39.9% | 25.9% | 14.4% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 15.3% | — |
Date | Firm | Sample size | Margin of error | Party leaders | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rockliff | Willie | Unsure | ||||||||
25–28 Aug 2025 | EMRS [8] [9] | 1,047 | ±3.02% | 50% | 24% | 23% |
The Tasmanian House of Assembly continues for 4 years after the previous return of the writ