Next Tasmanian state election

2024 Tasmanian state election

←  2021 2024
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All 35 seats in the House of Assembly 18 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Leader Jeremy Rockliff Rebecca White Rosalie Woodruff Party Liberal Labor Greens Leader since 8 April 2022 7 July 2021 13 July 2023 Leader's seat Braddon Lyons Franklin Last election 13 seats, 48.7% 9 seats, 28.2% 2 seats, 12.4% Current seats 11 seats [lower-alpha 1] 8 seats [lower-alpha 2] 2 seats Seats needed 7 10 16
Incumbent Premier Jeremy Rockliff Liberal

The 2024 Tasmanian state election is scheduled to be held to elect all 35 members to the House of Assembly.

The House of Assembly uses the proportional Hare-Clark system of voting, with the 35 members elected from five seven-member constituencies. The Assembly's size was increased from 25 to 35 seats at this election, under the provisions of the Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022, assented to in December 2022. ^{[2] [3]}

The Liberal government, currently led by Premier Jeremy Rockliff, will attempt to win a fourth term against the Labor opposition, led by Rebecca White. Minor party the Greens will also contest the election. The Jacqui Lambie Network is also nominating candidates. The election will be conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission.

Elections for the 15-seat single-member district upper house, known as the Legislative Council, which use full-preference instant-runoff voting, are staggered each year and conducted separately from lower house state elections.

Date

Under section 23 of the Constitution Act 1934, the House of Assembly expires four years from the return of the writs for its election, which took place on 1 May 2021. ^[4] The Governor must issue writs of election between five and ten days thereafter. ^[5] Nominations must close on a date seven to 21 days after the issuance of the writ, ^[6] and polling day must be a Saturday between 22 and 30 days after nominations close. ^[7]

In May 2023, Rockliff ruled out holding an early election, in contrast to his predecessor (Peter Gutwein), who called the last state election a year early. ^[8]

On 13 February 2024, Rockliff announced that he will meet with Governor Barbara Baker to request that an election be called a year early after the Liberal government was forced into a minority. If his request is accepted, it will be the second consecutive time the Premier of Tasmania has called a snap election, ^[9] after Gutwein called the previous state election a year early for a similar reason.

Background

Main article: 2021 Tasmanian state election

After the snap 2021 Tasmanian state election, the Liberal Party successfully won a majority of seats in the Tasmanian House of Assembly. ^[10] A Liberal MP for Braddon, Adam Brooks, resigned on 14 May 2021 after being charged with firearms offences by Queensland law enforcement. These offences were unauthorised possession of a Category H weapon, unauthorised possession of explosives, and dealing with identity documents. Premier Peter Gutwein said that "I made the decision that under the circumstances of both his mental health and in terms of the fact that he's now facing these new charges, that he won't take his seat in parliament." Greens leader Cassy O'Connor said that "there are now very serious questions to answer about whether or not he was ever considered a legitimate candidate by the Liberal Party", given he resigned "the day the polls [were] declared". Prior claims from women were made before the 2021 election, saying they were catfished by Brooks under the alias "Terry Brooks". ^[11]

David O'Byrne (left) served as Labor leader for 22 days, resigning over sexual harassment allegations. His predecessor as leader, Rebecca White (right) ended up returning to the leadership role after O'Byrne's resignation.

Rebecca White resigned as Labor leader on 15 May 2021, endorsing shadow treasurer David O'Byrne to replace her. ^{[12] [13]} On 15 June 2021, it was announced that O'Byrne had been elected as leader of the Tasmanian Labor Party against opponent Shane Broad, winning 72% of the members' vote and 75% of party delegates. ^[14] After allegations of him sexting and kissing a woman without her consent were revealed, David O'Byrne stood aside from his role as leader of the Labor Party for the length of an investigation on 30 June 2021, with Anita Dow acting as leader during the interim. ^[15] This was followed by O'Byrne announcing he would resign as leader on 4 July 2021. ^[16] On 7 July 2021, Rebecca White was elected as leader after a meeting of the Labor parliamentary caucus. ^[17]

On 4 April 2022, Premier Peter Gutwein announced he will quit politics, resigning as Premier and as a member for Bass following the appointment of a new Premier. ^[18] Jeremy Rockliff, who had been the deputy Liberal leader for 16 years, officially replaced Gutwein as Premier on 8 April 2022, with Bass MP Michael Ferguson as his deputy. ^[19]

On 25 May 2022, Premier Rockliff announced his intention to table a bill in State Parliament to restore the state's House of Assembly to 35 seats before the end of 2022. ^{[20] [21]} The bill restored the size of parliament to its original number before the reductions to 25 seats was implemented at the 1998 election. The change will come into effect at this election. The legislation was supported by the Liberals, Labor, Greens and independent Kristie Johnston. ^[22] It became law upon its assent by the Governor in December 2022. ^[23]

On 11 May 2023, MPs Lara Alexander and John Tucker resigned as members of the Tasmanian Liberal Party and from all parliamentary committees, and served the remainder of their terms as independents on the crossbench. This left the Liberal party in minority government and requiring 7 seats to reach a majority in the next state election. ^[24] Tucker and Alexander both agreed to provide the government with confidence and supply. ^[25]

On February 2, 2024. Premier Rockliff made a statement that a new agreement is required with Tucker and Alexander ^{[26] [27]} due to Tucker threatening to withdraw his support, ^[28] this is leading to speculation in the media ^[29] that an early election may be called.

Changes in parliamentary composition

Since the 2021 election, there were a number of changes within the Tasmanian Parliament that effected the balance of power in the chamber.

Seat	Before			Change		After
	Member	Party		Type	Date	Date	Member	Party
Braddon	Adam Brooks		Liberal	Resignation	14 March 2021	3 June 2021	Felix Ellis		Liberal
Franklin	David O'Byrne		Labor	Defection	23 August 2021		David O'Byrne		Independent Labor
Bass	Sarah Courtney		Liberal	Resignation	10 February 2022	25 March 2022	Lara Alexander		Liberal
Bass	Peter Gutwein		Liberal	Resignation	8 April 2022	25 April 2022	Simon Wood		Liberal
Franklin	Jacquie Petrusma		Liberal	Resignation	25 July 2022	16 August 2022	Dean Young		Liberal
Bass	Lara Alexander		Liberal	Defection	11 May 2023		Lara Alexander		Independent
Lyons	John Tucker		Liberal	Defection	11 May 2023		John Tucker		Independent
Clark	Cassy O'Connor		Greens	Resignation	13 July 2023	1 August 2023	Vica Bayley		Greens
Clark	Elise Archer		Liberal	Defection	29 September 2023		Elise Archer		Independent
Clark	Elise Archer		Independent	Resignation	4 October 2023	24 October 2023	Simon Behrakis		Liberal
Franklin	David O'Byrne		Independent Labor	Defection	4 February 2024		David O'Byrne		Independent

Registered parties

Main article: List of political parties in Australia

Seven parties are registered with the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC). ^[30] The list of parties registered are:

• Animal Justice
• Labor
• Liberal
• Shooters, Fishers and Farmers
• Greens
• Jacqui Lambie Network
• The Local Network

Status

Parties		Leader(s)	Ideology	Seats		Status
				Last election	Before election
	Liberal	Jeremy Rockliff	Liberalism Liberal conservatism	13 / 25	11 / 25	Minority government
	Labor	Rebecca White	Social democracy	9 / 25	8 / 25	Opposition
	Greens	Rosalie Woodruff	Green politics	2 / 25	2 / 25	Crossbench
	Independents	—	—	1 / 25	4 / 25	Crossbench

Opinion polling

Polling was regularly conducted for Tasmanian state politics by Enterprise Marketing and Research Services (EMRS). The sample size for each EMRS poll is 1,000 Tasmanian voters. ^[31]

Voting intention

House of Assembly (lower house) polling

Date	Firm	Political parties
		Liberal	Labor	Greens	JLN	Ind./Other
21 December 2023 – 4 January 2024	YouGov [32]	31%	27%	15%	20%	7%
30 November 2023	EMRS [33]	39%	29%	12%	—	19%
15–19 August 2023	EMRS [34]	38%	32%	14%	—	15%
15–19 May 2023	EMRS [35]	36%	31%	15%	—	18%
14–19 February 2023	EMRS [36]	42%	30%	13%	—	15%
8–15 November 2022	EMRS [37]	42%	29%	14%	—	16%
8–11 August 2022	EMRS [38]	41%	31%	13%	—	15%
27 May – 2 June 2022	EMRS [39]	39%	30%	13%	—	18%
28 February – 1 March 2022	EMRS [40]	41%	31%	12%	—	16%
28 November – 5 December 2021	EMRS [41]	49%	26%	13%	—	12%
7–9 August 2021	EMRS [42]	49%	28%	13%	—	10%
1 May 2021	2021 election	48.72%	28.20%	12.38%	—	10.71%

Preferred Premier

Preferred Premier polling

Date	Firm	Party leaders
		Rockliff	White	Unsure
15–21 August 2023	EMRS [34]	42%	39%	18%
15–19 May 2023	EMRS [35]	38%	40%	18%
14–19 February 2023	EMRS [36]	44%	36%	17%
8–15 November 2022	EMRS [37]	46%	34%	18%
8–11 August 2022	EMRS	47%	35%	16%
27 May – 2 June 2022	EMRS	47%	34%	18%
Jeremy Rockliff replaces Peter Gutwein as Premier and Liberal leader
Date	Firm	Party leaders
		Gutwein	White	Unsure
28 February – 1 March 2022	EMRS	52%	33%	14%
28 November – 5 December 2021	EMRS	59%	29%	12%
7–9 August 2021	EMRS	59%	28%	11%

Notes

1. In May 2023 Liberal MHAs Lara Alexander (Bass) and John Tucker (Lyons) resigned from the party and left the government to sit on the crossbench as independents. They agreed to provide the government with confidence and supply. ^[1]
2. • Further information: David O'Byrne misconduct allegations
   • Labor Party leader David O'Byrne resigned his position two months after the 2021 state election following misconduct allegations. A month after the allegations were made O'Byrne sat on the crossbench as an Independent Labor MHA.

References

1. Adam Holmes (20 May 2023). "Rogue MPs Alexander and Tucker stand with Tasmanian premier to guarantee supply ahead of state budget". ABC News.
2. "Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022". legislation.tas.gov.au.
3. Rockliff, Jeremy (9 August 2022). "Restoring the size of Parliament". The Department of Premier and Cabinet. Archived from the original on 29 April 2023. Retrieved 29 April 2023.
4. "Parliamentary Elections, 2007–2010" (PDF). Tasmanian Electoral Commission. Archived (PDF) from the original on 20 March 2012. Retrieved 1 May 2021.
5. Electoral Act 2004, section 63 Archived 4 March 2016 at the Wayback Machine .
6. Electoral Act 2004, section 69 Archived 4 March 2016 at the Wayback Machine .
7. Electoral Act 2004, section 70 .
8. "Soldiering on: Premier rules out early election" . Mercury.
9. https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/the-premier-of-tasmania-will-call-a-snap-election-a-year-early/news-story/60ef7884a6aeb04bcc85e60416dd7e9a?amp
10. Humphries, Alexandra (13 May 2021). "Peter Gutwein welcomes third consecutive election win for Tasmanian Liberals". ABC News . Archived from the original on 13 May 2021. Retrieved 14 May 2021.
11. Humphries, Alexandra; Fisher, Rachel; Dunlevie, James (14 May 2021). "Tasmanian Liberal Adam Brooks charged by police over firearms offences, resigns from Parliament". ABC News. Archived from the original on 14 May 2021. Retrieved 14 May 2021.
12. Langenberg, Adam (15 May 2021). "Rebecca White stands down as Tasmanian Labor leader, endorses David O'Byrne as successor". ABC News . Archived from the original on 15 May 2021. Retrieved 15 May 2021.
13. "Rebecca White stands aside as Tasmania's Labor leader". Sky News Australia . 15 May 2021. Archived from the original on 15 May 2021. Retrieved 15 May 2021.
14. Langenberg, Adam (15 June 2021). "David O'Byrne elected leader of Labor Party in Tasmania". ABC News . Archived from the original on 16 June 2021. Retrieved 16 June 2021.
15. Mobbs, Melissa (30 June 2021). "David O'Byrne stands aside as Tasmanian Labor leader, issues statement after sexual harassment allegations" . The Examiner . Archived from the original on 13 July 2021. Retrieved 13 July 2021.
16. Abblitt, Ebony (4 July 2021). "David O'Byrne to resign as Labor leader" . The Examiner . Archived from the original on 13 July 2021. Retrieved 13 July 2021.
17. "Rebecca White returned as Tasmanian Labor leader after David O'Byrne's resignation". ABC News . 7 July 2021. Archived from the original on 12 July 2021. Retrieved 13 July 2021.
18. "Tasmanian Premier Peter Gutwein quits politics". ABC . 4 April 2022. Archived from the original on 4 April 2022. Retrieved 4 April 2022.
19. Humphries, Alexandra (8 April 2022). "Jeremy Rockliff, Michael Ferguson announced as Tasmania's leadership team". ABC . Archived from the original on 8 April 2022. Retrieved 8 April 2022.
20. Humphries, Alexandra (25 May 2022). "Premier Jeremy Rockliff to introduce bill to restore Tasmania's Lower House to 35 seats". Archived from the original on 25 May 2022. Retrieved 25 May 2022.
21. "Restoring the size of the Tasmanian Parliament". Premier's Department. 25 May 2022. Archived from the original on 25 May 2022. Retrieved 25 May 2022.
22. Morton, Adam (25 May 2022). "Tasmanian parliament to expand to 35 lower house seats amid concerns about ministerial burnout". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 26 May 2022. Retrieved 26 May 2022.
23. "Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022". legislation.tas.gov.au.
24. "Live: Anger over Hobart AFL stadium sinks Tasmania's government into minority as MPs quit party". ABC News. 11 May 2023. Archived from the original on 23 May 2023. Retrieved 12 May 2023.
25. Adam Holmes (20 May 2023). "Rogue MPs Alexander and Tucker stand with Tasmanian premier to guarantee supply ahead of state budget". ABC News.
26. "The premier is unequivocal: if Tasmania goes to an early election, it'll be the fault of the two 'defectors'". ABC News. 1 February 2024. Retrieved 2 February 2024.
27. "Statement from the Premier". Premier of Tasmania. Retrieved 2 February 2024.
28. Tucker, John. "Signed letter to premier" (PDF).
29. "The premier is unequivocal: if Tasmania goes to an early election, it'll be the fault of the two 'defectors'". ABC News. 1 February 2024. Retrieved 2 February 2024.
30. "TEC Party Register". www.tec.tas.gov.au. Archived from the original on 22 April 2023. Retrieved 29 August 2022.
31. EMRS.com.au website Archived 9 March 2022 at the Wayback Machine .
32. "The Tasmanian State Liberal vote is down 17% since the last election". au.yougov.com. YouGov Australia. 10 January 2024. Archived from the original on 11 January 2024. Retrieved 11 January 2023.
34. 1 2 https://static1.squarespace.com/static/63435f017f0007502ab52a5d/t/64e6b8e2485aea1c90404892/1692842213563/EMRS+State+Voting+Intentions+Report+-+August+2023.pdf
35. "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll May 2023" (PDF). Enterprise Marketing & Research Services. 24 May 2023. Archived from the original (PDF) on 24 May 2023.
36. "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll February 2023" (PDF). Enterprise Marketing & Research Services. 2 March 2023. Archived from the original (PDF) on 28 March 2023.
37. "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll November 2022" (PDF). Enterprise Marketing & Research Services. 23 November 2022. Archived from the original (PDF) on 26 March 2023.
38. "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll August 2022" (PDF). EMRS. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2 September 2022. Retrieved 2 September 2022.
39. "Decline in State Support for Liberals, Rockliff". Tasmanian Times. Archived from the original on 10 June 2022. Retrieved 10 June 2022.
40. "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll March 2022" (PDF). EMRS. Archived (PDF) from the original on 9 March 2022. Retrieved 10 March 2022.
41. "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll December 2021" (PDF). EMRS. Archived (PDF) from the original on 3 March 2022. Retrieved 10 March 2022.
42. "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll August 2021" (PDF). EMRS. Archived (PDF) from the original on 3 March 2022. Retrieved 10 March 2022.