Next Tasmanian state election

Last updated

Next Tasmanian state election
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←  2025
No later than mid-2029 [1]
Next →
All 35 seats in the House of Assembly
18 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Jeremy-Rockliff b.jpg
Josh willie spirits photo headshot.jpg
Leader Jeremy Rockliff Josh Willie
Party Liberal Labor
Leader since8 April 2022 20 August 2025
Leader's seat Braddon Clark
Last election14 seats10 seats
Current seats1410
 
RosalieWoodruff.jpg
SFF
Leader Rosalie Woodruff Wayne Turale [2]
Party Greens Shooters
Leader since13 July 202325 November 2025
Leader's seat Franklin None
Last election5 seats1 seat
Current seats4 [3] 1
Incumbent Premier

Jeremy Rockliff
Liberal



The next Tasmanian state election is expected to be held sometime in 2029 to elect all 35 members to the Tasmanian House of Assembly. [4]

Contents

The election follows the 2025 Tasmanian state election, which delivered a hung parliament in which no party had a legislative majority. 2025 Tasmanian government formation negotiations proved largely unsuccessful, with then-Labor leader Dean Winter unable to convince crossbenchers to support his bid for government. In the August 2025 no-confidence motion in Rockliff, the Greens, SFF and all independent crossbenchers supported the Liberal government, citing Labor unwillingness to negotiate. [5] Josh Willie took leadership of the Labor Party following the 2025 Tasmanian Labor Party leadership election. [6]

Liberal premier Jeremy Rockliff is expected to contest the election in attempt to win a sixth consecutive election, with Josh Willie attempting to lead the Labor Party into government for the first time since 2014. [6] The Greens, SFF and other minor parties are also expected to contest.

Background

Changes in parliament

On 2 January 2025, Helen Burnet resigned from the Tasmanian Greens to sit as an independent saying she wanted to be more "effective, accountable and heard". [3]

Changes in the Tasmanian parliament after the 2025 election

Since the 2025 election, there were a number of changes within the Tasmanian Parliament which affected the balance of power in the chamber.

SeatBeforeChangeAfter
MemberPartyTypeDateDateMemberParty
Clark Helen Burnet Greens Resignation2 January 2026 Helen Burnet Independent

Candidates

Parties registered with the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC) are eligible to contest the election. [7] Seven parties were registered as at 22 August 2025:

Opinion polling

Voting intention

DateFirmSample
size		Margin
of error		Primary vote
LIB ALP GRN SFF NAT IND OTH
17–21 Nov 2025EMRS [8] 1,000±3.1%34%25%17%N/aN/a19%N/a
16–27 Oct 2025DemosAU [9] [10] [11] 1,021±4.4%41%24%15%2%N/a14%4%
25–28 Aug 2025EMRS [12] [13] 1,047±3.02%38%24%13%N/aN/a19%6%
20 Jul 2025 2025 election 39.9%25.9%14.4%2.9%1.6%15.3%—

Leadership approval

Preferred premier

DateFirmSample
size		Party leaders
Rockliff Willie Unsure
16–27 Oct 2025DemosAU [9] [10] [11] 1,02146%34%20%
25–28 Aug 2025EMRS [12] [13] 1,04750%24%23%

Individual politician favourability

Liberal

DateFirmSample
size		 Liberal politician net favourability
Abetz Barnett
16–27 Oct 2025DemosAU [9] [10] [11] 1,021-19%-14%

Labor

DateFirmSample
size		 Labor politician net favourability
Winter
16–27 Oct 2025DemosAU [9] [10] [11] 1,021-33%
25–28 Aug 2025EMRS [12] [13] 1,047-9%

Crossbench

DateFirmSample
size		 Crossbench politician net favourability
Woodruff Garland George Johnston O'Byrne
16–27 Oct 2025DemosAU [9] [10] [11] 1,021-20%-10%-2%0%N/a
25–28 Aug 2025EMRS [12] [13] 1,047-2%+3%+4%+12%+21%

References

  1. ↑ "So when is the next federal election? A quick guide". Parliament of Australia. 22 August 2022. Archived from the original on 5 October 2024. Retrieved 5 October 2024. The Tasmanian House of Assembly continues for 4 years after the previous return of the writ
  2. ↑ Duggan, Josh (25 November 2025). "Shooters, Fishers, Farmers party row as key figures quit over Carlo Di Falco's Hobart stadium backflip". ABC News. Archived from the original on 25 November 2025. Retrieved 25 November 2025.
  3. 1 2 Duggan, Josh (2 January 2026). "Clark MP Helen Burnet quits Greens to become a Tasmanian independent". ABC News. Retrieved 2 January 2026.
  4. ↑ Tasmania, Parliament of (21 July 2025). "Parliamentary Terms and Sessions". www.parliament.tas.gov.au. Retrieved 22 August 2025.
  5. ↑ "Liberals retain power as no-confidence motion defeated — as it happened". ABC News. 19 August 2025. Retrieved 22 August 2025.
  6. 1 2 "Who is Josh Willie, new leader of Tasmanian Labor?". ABC News. 20 August 2025. Retrieved 22 August 2025.
  7. ↑ "TEC Party Register". www.tec.tas.gov.au. 28 January 2025. Archived from the original on 4 March 2025. Retrieved 11 June 2025.
  8. ↑ "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll" (PDF). EMRS. 24 November 2025. Archived from the original (PDF) on 25 November 2025. Retrieved 25 November 2025.
  9. 1 2 3 4 5 "Jeremy Rockliff's popularity keeps Liberals ahead as Labor slips in new poll". Pulse Tasmania. 4 November 2025. Archived from the original on 4 November 2025. Retrieved 4 November 2025.
  10. 1 2 3 4 5 "Rockcliff strengthens position in Tasmania". DemosAU. 5 November 2025. Archived from the original on 18 November 2025. Retrieved 18 November 2025.
  11. 1 2 3 4 5 "Tasmania Poll" (PDF). DemosAU. 5 November 2025. Archived from the original (PDF) on 18 November 2025. Retrieved 18 November 2025.
  12. 1 2 3 4 "EMRS State Voting Intentions Poll" (PDF). EMRS. 29 August 2025. Archived from the original (PDF) on 29 August 2025. Retrieved 29 August 2025.
  13. 1 2 3 4 "Willie with work to do" (PDF). EMRS. 29 August 2025. Archived from the original (PDF) on 29 August 2025. Retrieved 29 August 2025.
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