2025 Tasmanian state election

Last updated

2025 Tasmanian state election
Flag of Tasmania.svg
  2024 19 July 2025 Next  

All 35 seats in the House of Assembly
18 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout90.05% (Decrease2.svg 1.10pp)
 First partySecond party
 
Jeremy-Rockliff b.jpg
Dean Winter Jobs plan for stadium (cropped).jpg
Leader Jeremy Rockliff Dean Winter
Party Liberal Labor
Leader since8 April 2022 10 April 2024
Leader's seat Braddon Franklin
Last election14 seats10 seats
Seats before1410
Seats won1410
Seat changeSteady2.svgSteady2.svg
Primary  vote139,58690,563
Percentage39.87%25.87%
SwingIncrease2.svg 3.20ppDecrease2.svg 3.13pp

 Third partyFourth party
 
RosalieWoodruff.jpg
SFF
Leader Rosalie Woodruff Adrian Pickin [1] [2]
Party Greens Shooters, Fishers and Farmers
Leader since13 July 2023None (contested Braddon)
Leader's seat Franklin N/A
Last election5 seats0 seats
Seats before50
Seats won51
Seat changeSteady2.svgIncrease2.svg 1
Primary  vote50,54510,159
Percentage14.44%2.90%
SwingIncrease2.svg 0.55ppIncrease2.svg 0.57pp

Premier before election

Jeremy Rockliff
Liberal

Subsequent Premier

Jeremy Rockliff
Liberal

The 2025 Tasmanian state election was held on 19 July 2025 to elect all 35 members of the Tasmanian House of Assembly. [3]

Contents

The election was precipitated by a no-confidence motion in the Liberal government, led by state premier Jeremy Rockliff who had governed in minority since the preceding 2024 election. Rockliff sought to call a snap election in response, which was granted by state governor Barbara Baker on 11 June 2025. The election was conducted by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission and was held just 15 months after the previous election, the third consecutive Tasmanian state election to be held early.

The Liberal Party was attempting to win a fifth consecutive term against the Australian Labor Party (ALP) opposition led by Dean Winter, who was contesting his first election as opposition leader. Rockliff was the first premier to contest consecutive Tasmanian elections since Robin Gray in 1989.

The election resulted in a second consecutive hung parliament. The Liberals won the most seats and highest primary vote, winning 14 out of 35 seats, while the ALP opposition won 10 seats and recorded its lowest primary vote in over 100 years. Crossbenchers won the remaining 11 seats, with the Greens and independents winning five seats each and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party winning its first seat in Tasmania.

Negotiations with the crossbenchers to form a new government began after the election, but neither Rockliff nor Winter were able to secure sufficient formal confidence and supply guarantees. Rockliff was ultimately recommissioned as premier as head of a Liberal minority government, with his ministry sworn in on 11 August 2025.

Background

Previous election

The House of Assembly uses the proportional Hare-Clark system of voting, with the 35 members elected from five seven-member constituencies. The Assembly's size is governed by the provisions of the Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022, assented to in December 2022. [4] [5] Elections for the 15-seat single-member district upper house, known as the Legislative Council, which use full-preference instant-runoff voting, are staggered each year and conducted separately from lower house state elections with the next to be held in 2026. [6]

The Liberal Party won 14 of the 35 seats in the Assembly at the previous election, and formed a minority government with the support of three Jacqui Lambie Network members and two independents, namely Kristie Johnston and David O'Byrne. [7] Labor remained in opposition with 10 members and the Greens won five seats. The new parliament was opened on 14 May 2024, and Labor member Michelle O'Byrne was elected unopposed to the position of Speaker of the Assembly. [8] [9]

Minority government arrangements and changes in parliament

On 24 August 2024, Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) party leader Jacqui Lambie announced the party had expelled MPs Rebekah Pentland and Miriam Beswick over what she described as issues of accountability, transparency and integrity. [10] Both MPs subsequently became independents in the parliament, briefly reducing the government's confidence and supply numbers to 17 out of 35 seats. Shortly thereafter Pentland and Beswick issued a joint statement clarifying they would remain in parliament as independents, and that both would sign a new confidence and supply agreement with the government. [11] This agreement was confirmed on 27 August 2024. [12]

Following the expulsion of Pentland and Beswick, Lambie announced she would not run candidates in Tasmanian state elections in the future. She also apologised to Rockliff for government instability after her party 'imploded'. [13]

In September 2024, Andrew Jenner, the sole remaining JLN member, confirmed he was no longer party to the original confidence and supply agreement signed by the three original JLN members and the government, and that he would not sign up to a new confidence and supply arrangement. [14] In an interview with WIN News, Jenner clarified he had provided the Premier with only a "verbal agreement" for confidence and supply. [15]

Jenner and Beswick joined the National Party in June 2025. [16] [17]

Changes in the Tasmanian parliament after the 2024 election

SeatBeforeChangeAfter
MemberPartyTypeDateDateMemberParty
Braddon Miriam Beswick Lambie Network Expulsion from party24 August 2024 Miriam Beswick Independent
Bass Rebekah Pentland Lambie Network Expulsion from party24 August 2024 Rebekah Pentland Independent
Lyons Rebecca White Labor Resignation12 February 20254 March 2025 Casey Farrell Labor
Lyons Andrew Jenner Lambie Network Party not contesting14 June 2025 Andrew Jenner National
Braddon Miriam Beswick Independent Joined party16 June 2025 Miriam Beswick National

No-confidence motion and snap election

On 4 June 2025, opposition leader and Labor leader Dean Winter tabled a motion of no confidence to parliament. [18] Winter moved the motion one week after the government released the state budget, which forecast four deficits and debt reaching $10.8 billion in the 2028–29 financial year, and labelled it "the worst budget in the state's history". [19] Other issues pertinent to debate on the motion in the parliament included turmoil and delays regarding replacement ferries for TT-Line (more commonly known as Spirit of Tasmania), the Macquarie Point Stadium project in Hobart, and the slated privatisation of some of Tasmania's state-owned assets. [20] [19] The motion specifically sought no confidence in Premier Jeremy Rockliff, as opposed to the government, though Rockliff stated he would request a snap election if the motion was passed. [21]

On 5 June 2025, the no-confidence motion passed 18–17, attracting the support of all 10 Labor MPs (including the Speaker Michelle O'Byrne who provided the casting vote in favour of the motion), 5 Greens MPs, 2 independents (Kristie Johnston and Craig Garland) and Andrew Jenner of the Jacqui Lambie Network. Until the motion, Johnston had provided confidence and supply to the government, whilst Jenner had previously characterised himself as having given a "verbal agreement" to the government. [15] Among the negative votes were all 14 Liberal MPs and 3 independents (Miriam Beswick, Rebekah Pentland and former Labor leader turned independent David O'Byrne). [22]

Following the motion's passage, Rockliff visited Lieutenant-Governor Christopher Shanahan to request a special recall of parliament for the following Tuesday, at which parliament considered and passed emergency supply extension bills, to ensure government employees continued to be paid beyond 30 June 2025, when the previous year's budget expires. [23] [24] Shortly after the passage of the supply bills, Rockliff visited Governor Barbara Baker to ask for an election to be called. [25] Following this meeting the Governor released a statement noting she was "taking the time necessary to give due consideration to all available options", which could include requesting another Liberal MP try and form a minority government or ask Labor to form one. [25] [26] The next day the Governor met with Labor leader Dean Winter, where Winter reaffirmed his party would not form a government with support from the Greens. [27] Later that evening the Governor released a statement granting Rockliff's request for a snap election to be held on 19 July, finding "there is no real possibility that an alternative government can be formed". [3]

The gap between the July 2025 election and the preceding March 2024 election was the shortest gap between Australian state elections since the 1956 and 1957 Queensland state elections. [28]

Election timetable

Important dates in relation to the election were: [29]

Retiring MPs

Labor

Candidates

Parties who were registered with the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (TEC) were eligible to contest the election. [31] Seven parties were registered at the time the election was called:

Opinion polling

Results

2025 Tasmania Assembly election diagram.svg
PartyVotes%+/–Seats+/–
Liberal 139,58639.87Increase2.svg 3.2014Steady2.svg
Labor 90,56325.87Decrease2.svg 3.1310Steady2.svg
Greens 50,54514.44Increase2.svg 0.555Steady2.svg
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 10,1592.90Increase2.svg 0.571Increase2.svg 1
National 5,6681.62Increase2.svg 1.620Steady2.svg
Independents 53,60015.31Increase2.svg 5.695Increase2.svg 2
Total350,121100.0035
Valid votes350,12194.16
Invalid/blank votes21,7015.84Decrease2.svg 0.47
Total votes371,822100.00
Registered voters/turnout412,90590.05Decrease2.svg 1.10
Source: ABC, TEC
Newly-elected MPs
New MPDivisionPredecessorRef.
Independent George Razay Bass Independent Rebekah Pentland (Lambie-turned-Independent) [32]
Liberal Bridget Archer Bass Liberal Simon Wood [32]
Labor Jess Greene Bass Labor Michelle O'Byrne (retired) [32]
Liberal Gavin Pearce Braddon Nationals Miriam Beswick (Lambie-turned-Independent-turned-National) [33]
Liberal Marcus Vermey Clark Liberal Simon Behrakis [34]
Independent Peter George Franklin Liberal Nic Street [35]
SFF Carlo Di Falco Lyons Nationals Andrew Jenner (Lambie-turned-National) [36]
Labor Brian Mitchell Lyons Labor Casey Farrell [36]

Distribution of seats

Aftermath

On election night speaking at the tally room, incumbent Premier Jeremy Rockliff claimed victory for his party; Dean Winter did not concede defeat for Labor; and Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff expressed a willingness to form a minority government with Labor. Winter's words on election night were seen as a retraction of his prior pledges which completely ruled out forming government with the Greens. [37]

Rockliff was recommissioned as Premier following the election by convention; however his confidence in parliament was tested on 19 August, when Labor also sought to form a government. [38] Labor's joint no-confidence motion in Rockliff's government and confidence motion in Dean Winter was voted down in a landslide, with 24 "No" votes to Labor's 10 "Aye" votes. [39]

In the weeks following the election, Labor and the Liberals sought crossbench support for their respective government bids. The Labor party announced that if they were successful at forming a government, Ruth Forrest would be appointed as Treasurer. The Liberals reversed a prior commitment to expand native forestry, announced a ban on greyhound racing starting from 2029, announced a pause to the expansion of salmon farming until an independent review into the industry is completed and appointed independent Tania Rattray to lead the government in the upper house. [40] [41] [42]

References

  1. "In response to the proposed aerial slaughter of wild fallow deer by Parks & Wildlife, Adrian Pickin, Leader of the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party of Tasmania, issued the following statement". Facebook. Shooters Fishers & Farmers Party of Tasmania. 4 April 2024. Archived from the original on 27 August 2025. Retrieved 27 August 2025.
  2. "It's On! 19 July House of Assembly Election". Tasmanian Times. 11 June 2025. Archived from the original on 20 July 2025. Retrieved 27 August 2025.
  3. 1 2 Dunevie, James; Oong, Susan; Holmes, Adam (11 June 2025). "Tasmanian state election called for Saturday July 19 after Jeremy Rockliff declines to step aside". ABC News . Archived from the original on 25 July 2025.
  4. Expansion of House of Assembly Act 2022 (TAS)
  5. Rockliff, Jeremy (9 August 2022). "Restoring the size of Parliament". The Department of Premier and Cabinet. Archived from the original on 29 April 2023. Retrieved 29 April 2023.
  6. "Voting Systems". Tasmanian Electoral Commission . Archived from the original on 16 June 2024. Retrieved 25 July 2025.
  7. Holmes, Adam (24 April 2024). "Premier Jeremy Rockliff seals deals with key independents to prop up Tasmanian Liberal government". ABC News . Archived from the original on 22 January 2025. Retrieved 21 January 2025.
  8. "Tasmanian Parliament elects Michelle O'Byrne as new speaker in uncontested vote". Pulse Tasmania . 14 May 2024. Archived from the original on 14 May 2024. Retrieved 14 May 2024.
  9. Maloney, Matt (14 May 2024). "Labor's Michelle O'Byrne officially new House of Assembly speaker". The Examiner . Archived from the original on 25 July 2025. Retrieved 25 July 2025.
  10. "Two Tasmanian MPs booted from Jacqui Lambie Network for 'failing to uphold values'". Pulse Tasmania . 24 August 2024. Archived from the original on 27 August 2024. Retrieved 27 August 2024.
  11. "Ousted Jacqui Lambie Network MPs commit to supporting Tasmanian Government". Pulse Tasmania. 25 August 2024. Archived from the original on 17 September 2024. Retrieved 25 July 2025.
  12. "Miriam Beswick and Rebekah Pentland sign new deal with Premier Jeremy Rockliff". Pulse Tasmania. 27 August 2024. Archived from the original on 28 August 2024. Retrieved 28 August 2024.
  13. Langenberg, Adam; Oong, Susan (29 August 2024). "Lambie apologises to premier for instability, says she won't run any more Tasmanian state candidates". ABC News. Archived from the original on 12 June 2025. Retrieved 23 September 2024.
  14. "No new deal, Lyons Lambie tells premier". New Norfolk and Derwent Valley News. 16 September 2024. Archived from the original on 26 November 2024. Retrieved 5 June 2025.
  15. 1 2 "The sole remaining member of the Jacqui Lambie Network has made a decision on whether or not to enter into a new confidence and supply arrangement with the state government. #WINNews". WIN News Tasmania. 16 September 2024. Archived from the original on 25 July 2025. Retrieved 25 July 2025 via Facebook.
  16. Duggan, Josh (14 June 2025). "John Tucker, Andrew Jenner to seek preselection to run as National Party candidates in the Tasmanian state election". ABC News. Archived from the original on 15 June 2025. Retrieved 23 June 2025.
  17. "Former JLN-turned-independent MP Miriam Beswick wants to run with the Nationals". Pulse Tasmania. 16 June 2025. Archived from the original on 19 June 2025. Retrieved 23 June 2025.
  18. Langenberg, Adam (4 June 2025). "Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff survives with Labor no-confidence motion to enter second day". ABC News. Archived from the original on 5 June 2025. Retrieved 5 June 2025.
  19. 1 2 Langenberg, Adam (3 June 2025). "Tasmanian Labor leader Dean Winter tables no-confidence motion in Premier Jeremy Rockliff". ABC News. Archived from the original on 5 June 2025. Retrieved 5 June 2025.
  20. Liu, Summer (5 June 2025). "Tasmanian premier Jeremy Rockliff loses no confidence motion". NewsWire . Archived from the original on 25 July 2025. Retrieved 25 July 2025 via news.com.au.
  21. Wilson, Eleanor (5 June 2025). "Embattled Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff forced from job as no-confidence motion narrowly succeeds". 9news.com.au . Archived from the original on 5 June 2025. Retrieved 5 June 2025.
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  23. Dunlevie, James; Holmes, Adam; Oong, Susan (10 June 2025). "Decision on Tasmania's state election delayed as governor seeks 'all available options'". ABC News. Archived from the original on 10 June 2025. Retrieved 10 June 2025.
  24. "$2 million counting error discovered in emergency budget bill". Pulse Tasmania. 10 June 2025. Archived from the original on 24 June 2025. Retrieved 10 June 2025.
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  30. MacDonald, Lucy and Barraclough, Ashley (10 June 2025). "Tasmanian speaker and long-time Labor MP Michelle O'Byrne set to retire from parliament". ABC News . Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Archived from the original on 10 June 2025. Retrieved 10 June 2025.
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  34. Briggs, Casey (19 July 2025). "Clark - TAS Election 2025". www.abc.net.au. Archived from the original on 19 July 2025. Retrieved 20 July 2025.
  35. Briggs, Casey (19 July 2025). "Franklin - TAS Election 2025". www.abc.net.au. Archived from the original on 19 July 2025. Retrieved 20 July 2025.
  36. 1 2 Briggs, Casey (19 July 2025). "Lyons - TAS Election 2025". www.abc.net.au. Archived from the original on 19 July 2025. Retrieved 20 July 2025.
  37. "Tasmania Election 2025". www.abc.net.au. 19 July 2025. Archived from the original on 19 July 2025. Retrieved 20 July 2025.
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  39. Miller, Daniel; Dunlevie, James; Holmes, Adam; Gibson, Jano (19 August 2025). "Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff retains power as no-confidence motion defeated — as it happened". ABC News. Retrieved 24 August 2025.
  40. Holmes, Adam (20 August 2025). "Defeat for Tasmanian Labor as no-confidence motion in Jeremy Rockliff fails, with brutal rebuke from crossbench". ABC News. Retrieved 20 August 2025.
  41. "Independent MLC takes role to lead government business in the Upper House". Pulse Tasmania. 9 August 2025. Retrieved 20 August 2025.
  42. Pridham, Bec (17 August 2025). "Tasmanian salmon farming expansions on pause as Liberals order review". ABC News. Retrieved 24 August 2025.