Opinion polling on a United Ireland

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Ireland map; Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and respective capitals
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Satellite image of Ireland, nicknamed "The Emerald Isle"

This page lists opinion polling for a United Ireland also known as a New Ireland.

Contents

In Northern Ireland

The Good Friday Agreement states that the Secretary of State should call a referendum "if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland." [1]

DatePolling organisation/clientSample sizeYesNoUndecidedWill not
vote		LeadExcluding don't knowNotes
19 July - 27 August 2024Social Market Research Belfast [2] 2,03433.7%48.6%14%3.7%14.9%41% to 59%
9–12 February 2024LucidTalk [3] 3,20739%49%11%1%10%44% to 56%"If there was a referendum on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland within the week, how would you vote?"
November 2023ARINS/ The Irish Times [4] [5] 1,01930%51%15%5%21%37% to 63%
26 October – 3 November 2023The Institute of Irish Studies/Social Market Research [6] 1,07431%49%9%N/A18%38% to 62%"I would vote for a united Ireland tomorrow"
17–30 June 2023The Institute of Irish Studies/Social Market Research [7] 1,01736.1%47.0%10%6.2%10.9%43% to 57%"I would vote for a united Ireland tomorrow"
14 January – 7 September 2023Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey [8] [9] [10] 1,20035%47%10%5%12%43% to 57%"Suppose there was a referendum tomorrow on the future of Northern Ireland and you were being asked to vote on whether Northern Ireland should unify with the Republic of Ireland. Would you vote 'yes' to unify with the Republic or 'no'?"
5 September – 20 November 2022Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey [11] [12] 1,40535%47%10%4%12%43% to 57%"Suppose there was a referendum tomorrow on the future of Northern Ireland and you were being asked to vote on whether Northern Ireland should unify with the Republic of Ireland. Would you vote 'yes' to unify with the Republic or 'no'?"
17 August 2022 – 15 October 2022ARINS/The Irish Times [13] [14] 1,00927%50%23%23%35% to 65%"If there was a referendum asking people whether they want Northern Ireland to remain in the United Kingdom or unify with the Republic of Ireland, how would you vote in that referendum?"
August 2022LucidTalk [15] 3,38441%48%11%7%46% to 54%"If there was a referendum (i.e. a 'Border poll') on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland today, would you vote for Northern Ireland to be.."
11–26 March 2022University of Liverpool/The Irish News [16] 1,00030.0%45.3%*18.7%6%15.3%40% to 60%"I would vote for a united Ireland tomorrow"*Neither Agree/Disagree
15–18 November 2021Lord Ashcroft [17] 3,30141%49%8%8%46% to 54%"If there was a referendum (i.e a 'border poll') on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland tomorrow, how would you vote?"
October–December 2021Life & Times [18] 1,39734%48%11%4%14%41% to 59%"If there was a referendum tomorrow, how would you vote?"
October 2021University of Liverpool [19] 1,00229.8%58.6%9.1%2.5%28.8%33% to 67%"If there was a border poll tomorrow, would you vote for Northern Ireland to stay as part of the United Kingdom or for a United Ireland?"
20–23 August 2021LucidTalk [20] 2,40342%49%9%0%7%46% to 54%"If there was a referendum (i.e. a ‘Border poll’) on the constitutional position of Northern Ireland today, would you vote for Northern Ireland to be.."
June 2021Life & Times [21] [22] 30%53%9%5%23%
May 2021Belfast Telegraph/Kantar [23] 35%44%21%9%
April 2021LucidTalk [24] 43%49%8%6%
February 2021Savanta ComRes/ITV News [25] 36%49%15%13%
January 2021Lucid Talk/The Sunday Times [26] 42.3%46.8%10.7%4.5%
Brexit transition period ends and UK leaves the European Union, 31 December 2020
February 2020LucidTalk [27] 45%47%8%2%
February 2020Liverpool University [28] 29%52%19%23%
September 2019Lord Ashcroft [29] 1,54246%45%9%1%"If there was a "border poll" tomorrow, how would you vote?"
March 2019Irish Times/Ipsos Mori [30] 32%45%23%13%
June 2018Lord Ashcroft [31] 44%49%7%5%
June 2018NILT [32] [33] 22%55%10%12%33%
May 2018LucidTalk/YouGov/BBC [34] [35] [36] 42%45%12.7%0.2%3%
May 2018 ICM 21%50%18.9%9.7%29%
October 2017LucidTalk [37] [38] 34%55%9.8%1.1%21%
July 2017ESRC [39] 27%52%21%25%
August 2016Ipsos Mori [40] 22%63%13%2%41%Voters aged 18+
Brexit referendum, 23 June 2016
Scottish independence referendum, 18 September 2014
January 2013Spotlight [41] 17%65%5%12%48%Voters aged 18+
November 2003Millward Brown Ulster [42] 105826%61%13%35%"Should Northern Ireland be part of all-Ireland state or be part of UK?" (18+)
October-mid January 2002NI Life and Times Survey [43] 180027%54%10%6%27%"Suppose there was a referendum tomorrow on the future of Northern Ireland and you were being asked to vote on whether Northern Ireland should unify with the Republic of Ireland. Would you vote 'yes' to unify with the Republic or 'no'?"
May 2001Millward Brown Ulster [42] 27%58%15%31%"Should Northern Ireland be part of all-Ireland state or be part of UK?" (18+)
June 1998Millward Brown Ulster [42] 25%63%12%38%"Should Northern Ireland be part of all-Ireland state or be part of UK?" (18+)
Belfast Good Friday Agreement is signed, 10 April 1998

In the future

DatePolling organisation/clientSampleYesNoUndecidedWill not
vote		LeadNon standard question
9–12 February 2024LucidTalk [3] [44] 3,20752%44%––8%At some point in the future
17–30 June 2023The Institute of Irish Studies/Social Market Research [7] –40%36%––4%In 15–20 years
August 2022LucidTalk [15] 3,38452%44%4%–8%If a referendum was held in 15–20 years time.
11–26 March 2022University of Liverpool/The Irish News [16] 1,00033.4%41.5%*17.9%*7.6%8.1%In 15–20 years

*"Neither Agree/Disagree"

October 2015RTÉ BBC NI Cross Border Survey : ROI + NI [45] 1,40730%43%27%–13%"...in your lifetime?"

Healthcare

DatePolling organisation/clientYesNoUndecidedWill not
vote		LeadNon standard question
October 2020LucidTalk [46] 35%34%26%1%Reference to healthcare provision

By religion, age and region

2024 poll

Answer [3] Age band
18–2425–3435–4445–5455–6465+
Yes (to a United Ireland)48%45%44%42%28%36%
No43%41%42%54%64%48%
Don't know9%14%13%4%8%13%
Lead5%4%2%12%36%12%

2022 poll

Answer [12] Age bandReligion
18–2425–3435–4445–5455–6465+No religionCatholicProtestant
Yes (to a United Ireland)43%45%36%34%33%26%36%67%8%
No24%37%38%51%51%60%42%14%81%
Don't know22%11%10%11%8%7%11%12%7%

2016 poll

In 2016 an Ipsos MORI poll asked "If there was a referendum on the border tomorrow would you:" and the answers for different regions of Northern Ireland were as follows, [47]

Belfast

City

Greater

Belfast

DownArmaghTyrone/

Fermanagh

LondonderryAntrim
Vote to stay in the United Kingdom65%77%57%50%51%53%72%
Vote for Northern Ireland to join the Republic of Ireland outside the United Kingdom17%10%27%41%28%28%17%
Don't know17%10%13%7%19%16%6%
Would not vote0%3%3%2%2%2%6%

The same poll recorded answers from people in different age groups as follows, [48]

Age band18–2425–3435–4445–5455–6465+
Vote to stay in the United Kingdom67%63%51%57%60%77%
Vote for Northern Ireland to join the Republic of Ireland outside the United Kingdom19%19%30%28%22%14%
Don't know12%15%18%13%13%7%

Answers from people of different religious backgrounds were as follows, [47]

AnswerCommunity background
ProtestantCatholicNeither
Vote to stay in the United Kingdom88%37%51%
Vote for Northern Ireland to join the Republic of Ireland outside the United Kingdom5%43%15%
Don't know5%17%30%

2014 poll

An opinion poll of 1,089 people conducted by LucidTalk in 2014 around the time of the Scottish referendum posed several questions. On the question of whether or not there should be a border poll, 47% said "yes", 37% "no" and 16% "don't know". [49] On the question, "If a referendum on Irish Unity was called under the Good Friday Agreement would you vote: Yes for unity as soon as possible, Yes for unity in 20 years, or No for Northern Ireland to remain as it is", the results were as follows. [49] [50]

AnswerAll

persons

ReligionAge band
ProtestantCatholic18–2425–4445–6465+
Yes, for unity as soon as possible5.7%1.8%9.8%12.2%5.5%3.8%3.3%
Yes, for unity in 20 years24.0%9.6%39.5%27.8%26.6%23.0%19.7%
No for Northern Ireland to remain as it is44.1%57.8%20.7%36.6%38.0%45.6%53.9%
No opinion/would not vote26.3%30.8%30.1%23.4%29.9%27.6%23.0%

Brexit scenario polls

DatePolling organisation/clientSampleYesNoUndecidedWill not
vote		LeadNon standard question
October–November 2018LucidTalk [51] 1,33448%48%4%–EvenIf Northern Ireland left the EU on terms negotiated between the UK government and the EU
October–November 2018LucidTalk [51] 1,33455%42%3%–13%No deal scenario
October–November 2018LucidTalk [51] 1,33429%60%11%–31%If the UK remained an EU member state
September 2018OFOC/Deltapoll [52] 52%39%9%13%"Imagine now that the UK decided to LEAVE the EU..."
December 2017LucidTalk [53] [54] 48%45%6%0.7%3%In the context of a hard Brexit

In the Republic of Ireland

DatePolling organisation/clientSample sizeYesNoUndecidedWill not
vote		LeadNotes
November 2023ARINS/ The Irish Times [4] [5] >1,00064%16%13%5%48%
August & September 2022The Irish Times/Arins Project [55] 1,000 voters in Northern Ireland and the Republic66%16%13%5%50%
December 2021Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI [56] 1,200 [57] 62%16%13%8%46%
November 2021Business Post/Red C [58] 1,00160%25%15%35%
March 2021RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research [59] 1,00053%19%28%34%"Is it time for a united Ireland?"
May 2019RTÉ/REDC [60] Randomly selected sample of 3,016 eligible voters outside 156 polling stations65%19%15%46%
January 2019RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research [61] 1,00054%21%25%33%"Are you in favour of a united Ireland"
March 2017RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research [62] 1,20049%29%22%20%
December 2016RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research [63] [64] 46%32%22%14%"Is it time to have a united Ireland"

54% aged 25–34 said yes

October 2010Red C/Sunday Times [65] 1,00557%22%21%35%

Short to medium term

"In the short to medium term, do you think Northern Ireland should..." (October 2015) [66] Proportion
Remain part of the UK, with direct rule from Westminster9%
Remain part of the UK, with a devolved assembly and Executive in Northern Ireland (the current situation)35%
Unify with the rest of Ireland36%
Other1%
None of these2%
Don't know17%

Long term

DatePolling organisation/clientSample sizeYesNoUndecidedLeadNotes
February 2019RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research [67] 1,00063%18%19%45%"in their lifetime"
October 2015RTÉ BBC NI Cross Border Survey : ROI + NI [45] 1,40766%14%20%42%"in your lifetime?"

When asked about tax

"Would you be in favour or against a united Ireland if it meant ..." (October 2015) [68] You would have to pay less taxThere would be no change in the amount of tax you payYou would have to pay more tax
In favour of a united Ireland73%63%31%
Against a united Ireland8%14%44%
Don't know18%24%25%

In Great Britain

A 2019 poll by Ipsos Mori and King's College London asked people in Great Britain (England, Scotland, and Wales): "If there were to be a referendum in Northern Ireland on its future, would you personally prefer Northern Ireland to choose to stay in the UK or leave the UK and join the Republic of Ireland?" The responses revealed that 36% wanted Northern Ireland to stay in the UK, 19% wanted it to join the Republic, 36% had no preference, and 9% were undecided. [69] It further revealed that support for Northern Ireland remaining in the UK was highest among those who intended to vote Conservative (49%) compared to 35% for Labour voters and 31% for Liberal Democrat voters. [69]

A 2023 state of the union poll asking if Ireland should unite showed that respondents from Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and England all had net positive views on the unification. On a scale between −10 to definitely remain in the UK to +10 to definitely unite Ireland; the people of Scotland had a net score of +1.9, England at +0.9, Wales at +0.6, and those in Northern Ireland at +0.6 also. [70]

See also

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References

  1. ↑ "Irish reunification". The Institute for Government. 22 May 2018. Archived from the original on 10 October 2019. Retrieved 27 July 2019.
  2. ↑ "Research reveals supporters of the union are now a minority". The Irish News. 2024-10-22. Retrieved 2024-12-13.
  3. 1 2 3 "More people in NI would vote to stay part of UK if border poll was called". 2024-02-18. ISSN   0307-1235 . Retrieved 2024-02-18.
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  5. 1 2 "NI voters would decisively reject Irish unity in border poll, new survey suggests". BelfastTelegraph.co.uk. 2023-12-02. ISSN   0307-1235 . Retrieved 2023-12-05.
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  36. ↑ Stone, Jon (8 June 2018). "Brexit causes surge in support for united Ireland, poll finds". The Independent . Archived from the original on 12 June 2018. Retrieved 14 March 2019. Over a quarter of people in the six counties say they have changed their mind since the Brexit vote and now support a united Ireland – bringing polling for a referendum to 45 per cent staying in the UK and 42 per cent leaving it, with 13 per cent undecided.
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  39. ↑ Tonge, Jon (27 July 2017). "Survey: Voters polarised on same-sex marriage, Brexit, an Irish Language Act in Northern Ireland". Belfast Telegraph . Archived from the original on 28 July 2017. Retrieved 14 March 2019. If Brexit led to a border poll, 52% would vote for Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK and 27% for a united Ireland.
  40. ↑ "PROJECT BORDER, page 8" (PDF). Ipsos Mori. 9 September 2016. Archived (PDF) from the original on 9 December 2018. Retrieved 29 June 2017.
  41. ↑ "Opinion poll indicates NI voters would reject Irish unity". BBC News. 2013-02-05. Retrieved 2022-09-01.
  42. 1 2 3 "Millward Brown Ulster – Reports – Opinion Poll, May 2003 : Slides". 2007-02-08. Archived from the original on 2007-02-08. Retrieved 2023-10-24.
  43. ↑ "NI Life and Times Survey – 2002: REFUNIFY". www.ark.ac.uk. Retrieved 2023-10-24.
  44. ↑ "Majority in North under 45 would vote for united Ireland". Independent.ie. 2024-02-19. Retrieved 2024-02-19.
  45. 1 2 "Behaviour & Attitudes Poll, page 406" (PDF). BBC. 16 October 2015. Archived (PDF) from the original on 9 January 2016. Retrieved 12 November 2015.
  46. ↑ "Poll: NHS could be crucial in border poll with support for united Ireland and the Union running neck-and-neck". Belfasttelegraph. Archived from the original on 29 October 2020. Retrieved 26 October 2020– via www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk.
  47. 1 2 "PROJECT BORDER, page 8" (PDF). Ipsos Mori. 9 September 2016. Archived (PDF) from the original on 9 December 2018. Retrieved 29 June 2017.
  48. ↑ "PROJECT BORDER, page 6" (PDF). Ipsos Mori. 9 September 2016. Archived (PDF) from the original on 9 December 2018. Retrieved 29 June 2017.
  49. 1 2 "Northern Ireland says 'yes' to a border poll... but a firm 'no' to a united Ireland". Belfast Telegraph. 29 September 2014. Archived from the original on 14 February 2015. Retrieved 7 June 2017.
  50. ↑ "Full Results of 2014 Belfast Telegraph Poll" (PDF).[ permanent dead link ]
  51. 1 2 3 "Northern Ireland (NI) Tracker Poll Results Report: Winter (December) 2018" (PDF).
  52. ↑ "Brexit 'could create a majority for a united Ireland'". BBC . 3 September 2018. Archived from the original on 3 September 2018. Retrieved 14 March 2019. It says 52% of those surveyed backed a united Ireland with 39% showing support for Northern Ireland staying in the UK.
  53. ↑ "GUE/NGL Sponsored – NI OPINION PANEL 'TRACKER' POLL". LucidTalk. 8 December 2017. Archived from the original on 14 March 2019. Retrieved 14 March 2019.
  54. ↑ "LucidTalk Tracker Poll (Northern Ireland – NI) Results Report" (PDF). LucidTalk. 8 December 2017. p. 35. Archived (PDF) from the original on 11 October 2018. Retrieved 14 March 2019.
  55. ↑ "Northern Ireland rejects Irish unity by large margin, poll shows". The Irish Times. Retrieved 2023-10-31.
  56. ↑ Leahy, Pat (12 December 2021). "Large majority of voters favour a united Ireland, poll finds". The Irish Times. Retrieved 12 December 2021.
  57. ↑ "Large majority of voters in Republic in favour of Irish unity – poll". The Independent. 2021-12-11. Retrieved 2023-10-31.
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  60. ↑ McMorrow, Connor (25 May 2019). "Exit poll indicates strong support for Irish language". www.rte.ie. Archived from the original on 6 June 2019. Retrieved 11 August 2019.
  61. ↑ "Infographic: Most Irish want united Ireland rather than hard border". Statista Daily Data. 2019-01-29. Retrieved 2023-10-31.
  62. ↑ "Poll shows that 49% of Irish republic favor a united Ireland". MercoPress. Retrieved 2023-10-31.
  63. ↑ Byrne, Claire (16 December 2016). "Sinn Féin's Santa List". RTÉ.ie . Archived from the original on 20 December 2016. Retrieved 1 May 2017.
  64. ↑ Hosford, Paul (2016-12-17). "Nearly half of Irish people think it's time for a United Ireland". TheJournal.ie. Retrieved 2023-10-31.
  65. ↑ "Smaller majority in republic supports united Ireland". The Sunday Times . Archived from the original on 2014-10-09.
  66. ↑ "Behaviour & Attitudes Poll, page 402" (PDF). BBC. 16 October 2015. Archived (PDF) from the original on 9 January 2016. Retrieved 12 November 2015.
  67. ↑ Beresford, Jack. "The majority of Irish people 'would like to see a united Ireland in their lifetime'". The Irish Post. Retrieved 2023-10-31.
  68. ↑ "Behaviour & Attitudes Poll, page 410" (PDF). BBC. 16 October 2015. Archived (PDF) from the original on 9 January 2016. Retrieved 12 November 2015.
  69. 1 2 "One in three Britons would mind if Northern Ireland voted to leave the UK, poll finds". Ipsos MORI. Archived from the original on 3 April 2019. Retrieved 2019-04-03.
  70. ↑ "England, Wales and Scotland all now in favour of Irish unification, research shows". The Irish Times. Retrieved 2024-04-08.
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