Opinion polling for the 2024 Irish general election

Last updated

Various organisations conduct regular opinion polls to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in the lists below.

Contents

On 1 November, Coimisiún na Meán announced the lifting of the reporting moratorium that had been in place since 1997, and which had prevented election coverage from 14:00 on the day prior to the election until the close of polls. However, the agency also advised broadcasters not to report on opinion polls or exit polls while voting is underway. [1] [2]

National polls

The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous Irish general election, held on 8 February 2020, to the election being held on 29 November 2024.

Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions. Ireland 2024 polls.svg
Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions.
Color key:

  Exit poll

Last date
of polling		Polling firm / CommissionerSample
size		 SF FF FG GP Lab SD PBP–S Aon II O/I [nb 1]
29 November 2024 General election –19.021.920.83.04.74.82.83.93.615.6
29 November 2024 Ipsos B&A/RTÉ/Irish Times/TG4/TCD [p 1] 5,01821.119.521455.83.13.62.214.6
26 November 2024 Red C/Business Post [p 2] 1,00420212044624415
23 November 2024Ipsos B&A/Irish Times [p 3] 1,20020211944633– [nb 2] 17
23 November 2024 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 4] 1,42020202234525– [nb 2] 19
16 November 2024 Opinions/The Sunday Times [p 5] 1,00018202344622– [nb 2] 21
13 November 2024Ipsos B&A/Irish Times [p 6] 1,20019192535423– [nb 2] 20
9 November 2024Red C/Business Post [p 7] 1,20818212243625316
2 November 2024Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 8] 1,83218202644623– [nb 2] 16
23 October 2024Red C/Business Post [p 9] [p 10] 1,00317212234533515
16 October 2024Opinions/The Sunday Times [p 11] 1,00516192445532– [nb 2] 22
4 October 2024Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 12] 1,41319192645624– [nb 2] 16
19 September 2024Opinions/The Sunday Times [p 13] 1,00018202444532– [nb 2] 20
17 September 2024Ipsos B&A/Irish Times [p 14] 1,20020192756421– [nb 2] 16
10 September 2024Red C/Business Post [p 15] [p 16] 1,00418182344634415
31 August 2024Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 17] 1,42318212544423– [nb 2] 19
3 August 2024Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 18] 1,38819202444524– [nb 2] 18
5 July 2024Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 19] 1,39418202443434– [nb 2] 20
26 June 2024Red C/Business Post [p 20] 1,00020192153533515
31 May 2024Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 21] 1,77022172243523– [nb 2] 23
22 May 2024Red C/Business Post [p 22] 1,02123152244533– [nb 2] 21 [nb 3]
15 May 2024Opinions/The Sunday Times [p 23] 1,10027161953633– [nb 2] 18
15 May 2024Ipsos B&A/Irish Times [p 24] 1,50023202345321– [nb 2] 17
3 May 2024Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 25] 1,31629161943623– [nb 2] 19
25 April 2024Red C/Business Post [p 26] 1,02727142033624– [nb 2] 21 [nb 3]
17 April 2024Opinions/The Sunday Times [p 27] 1,10027162065433– [nb 2] 16
6 April 2024Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 28] 1,33426162143624– [nb 2] 17
23 March 2024Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 29] [p 30] 1,30427172244624– [nb 2] 14
20 March 2024Red C/Business Post [p 31] 1,02725161943635– [nb 2] 19
2 March 2024Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 32] 1,08327182044722– [nb 2] 17
21 February 2024Red C/Business Post [p 33] 1,00928162034733– [nb 2] 16
6 February 2024Ipsos B&A/Irish Times [p 34] 1,20028201954421– [nb 2] 17
2 February 2024Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 35] 1,39429171934533– [nb 2] 18
24 January 2024Red C/Business Post [p 36] 1,00325172044633– [nb 2] 18
6 January 2024Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 37] 1,27030172033533– [nb 2] 17
2 December 2023Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 38] 1,30628192134543– [nb 2] 14
22 November 2023Red C/Business Post [p 39] 1,02129162044632– [nb 2] 16
3 November 2023Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 40] 1,38731182143543– [nb 4] 11
25 October 2023Red C/Business Post [p 41] 1,01832152045632– [nb 4] 12
29 September 2023Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 42] 1,19635171943523– [nb 4] 12
26 September 2023Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times [p 43] 1,20034201833211– [nb 4] 18
12 September 2023Red C/Business Post [p 44] 1,01131162144533– [nb 4] 12
12 September 2023Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 45] 91033212064321– [nb 4] 9
1 September 2023Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 46] 1,22833182123632– [nb 4] 10
5 August 2023Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 47] 1,27234181954532– [nb 4] 10
12 July 2023Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 48] 91034241944221– [nb 4] 10
1 July 2023Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 49] 1,07631191932643– [nb 4] 13
21 June 2023Red C/Business Post [p 50] [p 51] 1,01129162245532– [nb 4] 14
13 June 2023Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times [p 52] 1,20031211844521– [nb 4] 14
2 June 2023Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 53] 1,13632192033623– [nb 4] 13
24 May 2023Red C/Business Post [p 54] 1,01134152044631– [nb 4] 13
9 May 2023Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 55] 90635221754311– [nb 4] 12
6 May 2023Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 56] 1,17531192034542– [nb 4] 12
26 April 2023Red C/Business Post [p 57] 1,01631162244522– [nb 4] 14
4 April 2023Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 58] 90937211564422– [nb 4] 8
1 April 2023Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 59] 1,10231162243733– [nb 4] 10
22 March 2023Red C/Business Post [p 60] 1,00531152234632– [nb 4] 14
14 March 2023Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 61] [p 62] 9433220235542– [nb 2] – [nb 4] 9
3 March 2023Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 63] 1,16229192143923– [nb 4] 10
22 February 2023Red C/Business Post [p 64] 99831172144432– [nb 4] 14
21 February 2023Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times [p 65] 1,200351822442– [nb 2] – [nb 2] – [nb 4] 16
14 February 2023Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 66] 9213124235521– [nb 2] – [nb 4] 9
3 February 2023Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 67] 1,21231182244434– [nb 4] 10
25 January 2023Red C/Business Post [p 68] 1,00433152144632– [nb 4] 12
17 January 2023Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 69] 93634251954221– [nb 4] 8
6 January 2023Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 70] 1,10432162543343– [nb 4] 10
6 December 2022Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 71] 9233421235311– [nb 2] – [nb 4] 12
2 December 2022Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 72] 1,35234172333534– [nb 4] 9
23 November 2022Red C/Business Post [p 73] >1,00031152454432– [nb 4] 11
8 November 2022Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 74] 92334232145211– [nb 4] 9
4 November 2022Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 75] 1,00234172133454– [nb 4] 10
25 October 2022Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times [p 76] 1,20035212243321– [nb 4] 10
15 October 2022Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 77] 93134222146220– [nb 4] 9
1 October 2022Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 78] 1,25437172143343– [nb 4] 8
6 September 2022Red C/Business Post [p 79] 1,00435171854432– [nb 4] 12
6 September 2022Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 80] 90535242054320– [nb 4] 8
3 September 2022Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 81] [p 82] 1,12736162123453– [nb 4] 11
6 August 2022Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 83] [p 84] 1,18036172243443– [nb 4] 9
12 July 2022Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times [p 85] [p 86] 1,20036201834231– [nb 4] 14
1 July 2022Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 87] 1,13336152244333– [nb 4] 10
22 June 2022Red C/Business Post [p 88] 1,00436141943443– [nb 4] 12
7 June 2022Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 89] ?37222345011– [nb 4] 8
4 June 2022Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 90] 1,21135172034533– [nb 4] 8
25 May 2022Red C/Business Post [p 91] 1,000+36152053432– [nb 4] 11
10 May 2022Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 92] [p 93] 90836241925221– [nb 4] 9
7 May 2022Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 94] 1,00234162334443– [nb 4] 8
27 April 2022Red C/Business Post [p 95] 1,01434162144532– [nb 4] 11
1 April 2022Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 96] 1,13533182234623– [nb 4] 10
23 March 2022Red C/Business Post [p 97] 1,00133161955532– [nb 4] 12
8 March 2022Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 98] 92833232443121– [nb 4] 9
4 March 2022Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 99] 1,01131202143642– [nb 4] 9
23 February 2022Red C/Business Post [p 100] 1,00133172054432– [nb 4] 11
8 February 2022Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 101] 92234252054210– [nb 4] 9
5 February 2022Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 102] 1,08632172343533– [nb 4] 10
26 January 2022Red C/Business Post [p 103] 1,00133152164522– [nb 4] 12
18 January 2022Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 104] ?34242234120– [nb 4] 10
8 January 2022Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent [p 105] 1,36933192334432– [nb 4] 9
12 December 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday [p 106] ?31172544343– [nb 4] 9
8 December 2021Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 107] 93334232055210– [nb 4] 9
8 December 2021Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times [p 108] [p 109] 1,20035202054221– [nb 4] 10
25 November 2021Red C/Business Post [p 110] 1,00133152254522– [nb 4] 10
14 November 2021Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday [p 111] ?32172455433– [nb 4] 7
9 November 2021Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 112] 91237202153311– [nb 4] 8
22 October 2021Red C/Business Post [p 113] ?33122545632– [nb 4] 10
16 October 2021Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday [p 114] 1,20031162664433– [nb 4] – [nb 2]
12 October 2021Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 115] 94331232155411– [nb 4] 8
5 October 2021Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times [p 116] [p 117] 1,20032202274321– [nb 4] 10
18 September 2021Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday [p 118] 1,00029192344644– [nb 4] – [nb 2]
9 September 2021Red C/Business Post [p 119] 1,03129132845532– [nb 4] 10
8 September 2021Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 120] 92233212355220– [nb 4] 8
21 August 2021Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday [p 121] 1,20330152446633– [nb 4] 9
17 July 2021Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday [p 122] 1,00130142547544– [nb 4] 7
13 July 2021Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 123] 89430202555131– [nb 4] 10
26 June 2021Red C/Business Post [p 124] 1,02029133053422– [nb 4] 12
19 June 2021Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday [p 125] 1,27432152434544– [nb 4] 10
15 June 2021Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times [p 126] 1,20031202763221– [nb 4] 8
8 June 2021Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 127] 90934202443411– [nb 4] 9
27 May 2021Red C/Business Post [p 128] [p 129] 1,03429142953532– [nb 4] 10
18 May 2021Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 130] 9143022285421– [nb 2] – [nb 4] 8
15 May 2021Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday [p 131] 1,23730152534734– [nb 4] 9
22 April 2021Red C/Business Post [p 132] 1,02527133045522– [nb 4] 11
15 April 2021Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday [p 133] 1,08727162635634– [nb 4] 10
25 March 2021Red C/Business Post [p 134] 1,00029113054522– [nb 4] 11
20 March 2021Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday [p 135] 1,02631142725733– [nb 4] 8
25 February 2021Red C/Business Post [p 136] [p 137] 1,00029132934622– [nb 4] 12
23 February 2021Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times [p 138] 1,20028143063311– [nb 4] 14
12 February 2021Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday [p 139] 1,06828152655634– [nb 4] 9
28 January 2021Red C/Business Post [p 140] [p 141] 1,00027162953532– [nb 4] 10
17 January 2021Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday [p 142] 1,24729152835534– [nb 4] 7
15 December 2020Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 143] 91632222735120– [nb 4] 7
29 November 2020Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday [p 144] 1,04428172844524– [nb 4] 9
25 November 2020Red C/Business Post [p 145] 1,00030123353432– [nb 4] 8
24 October 2020Red C/Business Post [p 146] [p 147] 1,00027113763322– [nb 4] 9
17 October 2020Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 148] 93130193154221– [nb 4] 5
6 October 2020Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times [p 149] 1,2002917354421– [nb 2] – [nb 4] 8
26 September 2020Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday [p 150] 1,20028143244533– [nb 4] 7
15 September 2020Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 151] 90032193053110– [nb 4] 9
9 September 2020Red C/Business Post [p 152] 1,00027103563422– [nb 4] 10
22 August 2020Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday [p 153] 1,00030113535522– [nb 4] 7
28 July 2020Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 154] 92130202963110– [nb 4] 11
18 July 2020Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday [p 155] 1,0002612385432– [nb 2] – [nb 4] 10
20 June 2020Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday [p 156] 1,0002713348432– [nb 2] – [nb 4] 10
14 June 2020Ipsos MRBI/|Irish Times [p 157] 1,200251337122 [nb 5] [nb 5] [nb 5] – [nb 4] 10 [nb 5]
27 May 2020Red C/Business Post [p 158] [p 159] 1,00027153553421– [nb 4] 8
23 May 2020Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday [p 160] 1,0122716366432– [nb 2] – [nb 4] 6
29 April 2020Red C/Business Post [p 161] [p 162] 1,01927143573321– [nb 4] 8
25 March 2020Red C/Business Post [p 163] [p 164] 1,06228183453322– [nb 4] 5
10 March 2020Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 165] [p 166] 91235192163130– [nb 4] 11
25 February 2020Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times [p 167] [p 168] 91735201863231– [nb 4] 12
16 February 2020 Amárach Research/Extra.ie [p 169] [p 170] 1,0403517189353– [nb 2] – [nb 4] 10
8 February 2020 General election –24.522.220.97.14.42.92.61.9– [nb 4] 13.5

Constituency polling

Donegal

Last date
of polling		Polling firm /
Commissioner		Sample
size		 SF FF FG GP PBP–S Aon 100%R IF Pringle McConnell
29 November 2024 General election –41.823.99.01.10.83.29.00.56.92.0
22 November 2024 Tirconaill Tribune [3] 8724223120037172
16 November 2024 Ipsos MRBI/TG4 [4] 54335251221461112
8 February 2020 General election 45.120.413.82.1–3.1––7.10.8

Galway West

Last date
of polling		Polling firm /
Commissioner		Sample
size		 SF FF FG GP Lab SD PBP–S Aon II Connolly Grealish Cubbard
29 November 2024 General election –13.516.818.83.13.33.61.52.09.511.211.43.7
12 November 2024 Ipsos MRBI/TG4 [5] 5319142354422813123
8 February 2020 General election 14.022.718.16.02.66.01.51.8–9.013.34.4

Kerry

Last date
of polling		Polling firm /
Commissioner		Sample
size		 SF FF FG GP Lab PBP–S Aon M. Healy-Rae D. Healy-Rae Others/Independents
29 November 2024 General election –16.326.210.12.52.31.31.823.711.04.8
22 November 2024 Ipsos MRBI/TG4 [6] 521152414321127105
8 February 2020 General election 20.315.818.45.3––1.421.611.21.15

Mayo

Last date
of polling		Polling firm /
Commissioner		Sample
size		 SF FF FG GP Lab PBP–S Aon Others/Independents
29 November 2024 General election –19.420.035.11.3–1.76.316.2
19 November 2024 Ipsos MRBI/TG4 [7] [8] 5391821392–2711
8 February 2020 General election 22.724.139.56.50.41.10.45.3

Notes

  1. ↑ The figure for 'Others/Independents' is the remainder when all others are removed. As with all such calculations, the figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 Not specifically mentioned in the report.
  3. 1 2 Includes 19% for 'Independent' and 2% for 'Other Party'.
  4. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 Party did not exist.
  5. 1 2 3 4 The figure for 'Others/Independents' is the remainder when all others are removed. In the MRBI poll conducted up to 14 June 2020, this figure appears to include all independents as well as all of PBP–S, Aontú and the Social Democrats.

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References

Poll references
  1. ↑ Cunningham, Paul (29 November 2024). "SF and FG almost level at 21.1% and 21%, FF on 19.5% - Exit Poll". RTÉ News. Retrieved 29 November 2024.
  2. ↑ Cunningham, Paul (27 November 2024). "Fianna Fáil has slim lead days before election, poll suggests". RTÉ News. Retrieved 27 November 2024.
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