Next Thai general election

Last updated

Next Thai general election
Flag of Thailand.svg
  2023 By 27 June 2027

All 500 seats in the House of Representatives
251 seats needed for a majority
PartyLeaderCurrent seats
People's Party Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut 143
Pheu Thai Paetongtarn Shinawatra 141
Bhumjaithai Anutin Charnvirakul 71
Palang Pracharat Prawit Wongsuwon 40
United Thai Nation Pirapan Salirathavibhaga 36
Democrat Chalermchai Sri-on 25
Chart Thai Pattana Varawut Silpa-archa 10
Prachachart Tawee Sodsong 9
Thai Sang Thai Sudarat Keyuraphan 6
Chart Pattana Tewan Liptapanlop 3
Thai Ruam Palang Wasawat Puangpornsri 2
Fair Party Pitipong Temcharoen 2
Thai Liberal Sereepisuth Temeeyaves 1
New Democracy Suratin Pichan 1
New Party Kriditach Sangthanyothin 1
Thai Counties Bancha Dechchareonsirikul 1
New Social Power Chaowarit Khajohnpongkirati 1
Teachers for People Prida Bunphloeng 1
Thai Progress Party Watcharaphon Busamongkol 1

The next general elections are scheduled to be held in Thailand no later than 27 June 2027. They will determine the composition of the House of Representatives.

Contents

Background

This will be the third election under the 2017 constitution, which was implemented under the National Council for Peace and Order (the junta that took power in the 2014 Thai coup d'état), and the first after the expiration of the constitution's five-year transitory provision that gave the senate voting rights to choose the prime minister in a joint session of parliament. As such, unlike in 2023 when the junta-appointed senate (whose term also ends after five years) blocked the election's majority winner from forming government, this time the outcome of the election should determine the resulting government. [1]

AffiliationMembers
Elected [2] Current [3] Change
Move Forward [lower-alpha 1] 1510Decrease2.svg 151
Pheu Thai 141141Steady2.svg
Bhumjaithai 7171Steady2.svg
Palang Pracharat Party 4040Steady2.svg
United Thai Nation 3636Steady2.svg
Democrat 2525Steady2.svg
Chart Thai Pattana 1010Steady2.svg
Prachachart 99Steady2.svg
Thai Sang Thai 66Steady2.svg
Chart Pattana 23Increase2.svg 1
Pheu Thai Ruam Palang 22Steady2.svg
Fair Party12Increase2.svg 1
Thai Liberal 11Steady2.svg
New Democracy 11Steady2.svg
New Party11Steady2.svg
Thai Counties11Steady2.svg
New Social Power11Steady2.svg
Teachers for People11Steady2.svg
Thai Progress Party01Increase2.svg 1
Independent [lower-alpha 2] 0143Increase2.svg 143
Total500500Steady2.svg
VacantN/AN/ASteady2.svg
SuspendedN/AN/ASteady2.svg
Government majority6263Increase2.svg 1

Electoral system

As in the 2023 election, the electoral system will follow that of the 2021 amendment of the 2017 constitution. The 500 members of the House of Representatives are elected by parallel voting. 400 seats are elected from single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting and 100 seats by proportional representation. Voters cast separate ballots for the two sets of seats. [4]

Opinion polls

LOESS curve of the polling for the next Thai General Election. Polling for the Next Thai General Election (Excluding Undecided and Others).png
LOESS curve of the polling for the next Thai General Election.

Preferred party

Fieldwork date(s)Polling firmSample PP

MFP
PTP UTN BJT Dem PPRP UndecidedOthersLead
14 Aug 2024 Srettha Thavisin was removed from office by the constitutional court
14–18 June 2024 NIDA 2,00049.20% [lower-alpha 3] 16.85%7.55%2.20%3.75%1.75%15.00%3.70%32.35%
7–18 May 2024 KPI 1,62044.90% [lower-alpha 3] 20.20%10.90%3.50%3.00%3.00%12.60%24.70%
11–13 March 2024 NIDA 2,00048.45% [lower-alpha 3] 22.10%5.10%1.70%3.50%2.30%12.75%4.10%26.35%
9–20 December 2023 SPU 1,16861.50% [lower-alpha 3] 25.50%1.08%1.03%1.04%1.95%7.90%26.00%
13–18 December 2023 NIDA 2,00044.05% [lower-alpha 3] 24.05%3.20%1.75%3.60%1.45%16.10%6.00%20.00%
22–24 August 2023 SPU 1,25362.00% [lower-alpha 3] 12.87%9.27%4.39%1.86%2.00%7.61%49.13%
14 May 2023 2023 election 37.99% [lower-alpha 3] 28.84%12.54%2.99%2.43%1.41%13.80%9.15%

Preferred Prime Minister

Fieldwork date(s)Polling firmSample Pita Srettha Paethongtarn Pirapan  Anutin Sudarat Prawit UndecidedOthersLead
14–18 June 2024 NIDA 2,00045.5012.854.856.852.053.4020.553.9524.95
7–18 May 2024 KPI 1,62046.908.7010.503.300.4030.5036.40
11–13 March 2024 NIDA 2,00042.4517.756.003.551.452.901.0520.054.8022.40
13–18 December 2023 NIDA 2,00039.4022.355.752.401.701.6518.608.1517.05

Government Approval

Fieldwork date(s)Polling firmSample sizeApproveDisapproveNeitherOthersNet approvalNotes
4–5 June 2024 NIDA 1,31032.5966.041.37–33.45

Notes

  1. The party was dissolved by the Constitutional Court on 7 August 2024.
  2. Under Thai law, a member of the House of Representatives must be officially affiliated with a political party. However, if for any reason their party membership is rescinded, they can be without a party for up to thirty days. During the thirty days, they must find a new party to affiliate with or their membership of parliament will end.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 As Move Forward Party, People's Party's de facto predecessor

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References

  1. Sattaburuth, Aekarach (19 February 2024). "Representatives of Thai public to succeed junta-appointed senators". Bangkok Post. Retrieved 24 February 2024.
    "Thailand falls 8 places in Democracy Index". Bangkok Post. 17 February 2024. Retrieved 24 February 2024.
  2. "เช็กผลคะแนนเลือกตั้ง 66 เรียลไทม์ | Thai PBS เลือกตั้ง #66 เลือกอนาคตประเทศไทย". Thai PBS (in Thai). Retrieved 11 October 2023.
  3. "26th House of Representatives Map". hris.parliament.go.th. Secretariat of the House of Representatives. Retrieved 23 November 2023.
  4. "Thai Parliament passes election changes favouring ruling party". The Business Times. 10 September 2021. Archived from the original on 13 September 2021. Retrieved 26 June 2020.