Next Austrian legislative election

Last updated

Next Austrian legislative election
Flag of Austria.svg
←  2024 By 2029
All 183 seats in the National Council
92 seats needed for a majority
 
Herbert Kickl - Pressekonferenz am 1. Sep. 2020.JPG
Andreas Babler 2023 (cropped).jpg
Leader Herbert Kickl Christian Stocker [a] Andreas Babler
Party FPÖ ÖVP SPÖ
Last election28.8%, 57 seats26.3%, 51 seats21.1%, 41 seats
 
Meinl-Reisinger PKEU (cropped).png
PK Fruhjahrskampagne 09032023 (52736558865) (cropped).jpg
Leader Beate Meinl-Reisinger Werner Kogler
Party NEOS Greens
Last election9.1%, 18 seats8.2%, 16 seats
Incumbent Chancellor

Alexander Schallenberg (caretaker)
ÖVP



Legislative elections will be held in Austria by 2029 to elect the 29th National Council, the lower house of Austria's bicameral parliament.

Contents

Background

The 2024 legislative election resulted in the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) becoming the largest party in parliament for the first time. The Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) finished in second place after suffering significant losses and the Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPÖ) dropped to third place for the first time in the party's history even though its vote share was almost identical to the 2019 election. NEOS also obtained its best-ever result while the Greens remained in parliament albeit with a reduced seat share. No other party was able to clear the 4% threshold to win seats.

Electoral system

The 183 members of the National Council are elected by open list proportional representation at three levels; a single national constituency, nine constituencies based on the federal states, and 39 regional constituencies. Seats are apportioned to the regional constituencies based on the results of the most recent census. For parties to receive any representation in the National Council, they must either win at least one seat in a constituency directly, or clear a 4 percent national electoral threshold. [2]

Following the elections, seats are allocated to the candidates of successful parties and lists in a three-stage process, starting with the regional constituencies. Seats are distributed according to the Hare quota in the regional constituencies, and with unallocated seats distributed at the state constituency level. [3] Any remaining seats are then allocated using the D'Hondt method at the federal level, to ensure overall proportionality between a party's national vote share and its share of parliamentary seats. [4]

In addition to voting for a political party, voters may cast three preferential votes for specific candidates of that party, but are not required to do so. [5] These additional votes do not affect the proportional allocation based on the vote for the party or list, but can change the rank order of candidates on a party's lists at the federal, state, and regional level. The threshold to increase the position of a candidate on a federal party list is 7 percent, compared to 10 percent at the state level, and 14 percent at the regional level. The names of candidates on regional party lists are printed on the ballot and can be marked with an "x" to indicate the voter's preference. Preference votes for candidates on party lists at the state and federal level, however, must be written in by the voter, either by writing the name or the rank number of the candidate in a blank spot provided for that purpose. [6]

Opinion polls

Opinion polling for the 2029 Austrian legislative election.svg
Local regression of the voter intention polling for the next Austrian legislative election.

2025

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		Method FPÖ ÖVP SPÖ NEOS Grüne KPÖ OthersLead
IFDD 13–15 Feb 20251,250Online33192211103211
Spectra 13–14 Feb 20251,001Online3519221093313
Market-Lazarsfeld 10–11 Feb 20252,000Online33192310103210
Market-Lazarsfeld 3–4 Feb 20252,000Online3419229103312
Market-Lazarsfeld 27–28 Jan 20252,000Online3419221093312
Market-Lazarsfeld 13–21 Jan 20252,000Online3518211293214
INSA 13–15 Jan 20251,000Online352020118–615
Market-Lazarsfeld 13–14 Jan 20252,000Online3817191293219
Market-Lazarsfeld 7–8 Jan 20251,000Online39171910103220
IFDD 3–4 Jan 20251,250Online3721191183116
2024 legislative election 29 Sep 2024––28.826.321.19.18.22.44.0 [b] 2.5

2024

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		Method FPÖ ÖVP SPÖ NEOS Grüne KPÖ OthersLead
IFDD 17–18 Dec 20241,250Online3721201083116
Market-Lazarsfeld 16–17 Dec 20242,000Online3620191083416
Market 13–17 Dec 2024809Online + CAPI35222010832 [c] 13
Market-Lazarsfeld 9–10 Dec 20242,000Online3621191083315
Unique Research 2–4 Dec 2024800Online + Phone3520211282214
INSA 2–4 Dec 20241,004Online3421209835 [c] 13
Market-Lazarsfeld 2–3 Dec 20242,000Online3520191184315
Market-Lazarsfeld 25–26 Nov 20242,000Online3321191184412
OGM 25–26 Nov 20241,018Online322420127–58
Market-Lazarsfeld 18–19 Nov 20242,000Online322320108349
INSA 11–13 Nov 20241,000Online3222219826 [b] 10
Market-Lazarsfeld 11–12 Nov 20242,000Online332321983310
Market-Lazarsfeld 4–5 Nov 20242,000Online342321983211
Market-Lazarsfeld 28–29 Oct 20242,000Online3323211083210
OGM 25–28 Oct 20241,008Online322520108237
Market-Lazarsfeld 21–22 Oct 20242,000Online3323191184210
Market-Lazarsfeld 14–15 Oct 20242,000Online322519108337
Market-Lazarsfeld 7–8 Oct 20242,000Online332619107237
Market-Lazarsfeld 30 Sep – 1 Oct 20242,000Online302520118245
2024 legislative election 29 Sep 2024––28.826.321.19.18.22.44.0 [b] 2.5

Notes

    1. ↑ Acting, expected to become official party leader on 29 March 2024. [1]
    2. 1 2 3 BIER: 2.0%
    3. 1 2 BIER: 1.0%

    References

    1. ↑
    2. ↑ "Wahlen zum Nationalrat". Österreichisches Parlament. 12 September 2017. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
    3. ↑ "Wahlen". Bundesministerium für Inneres. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
    4. ↑ "Das Verhältniswahlrecht und das Ermittlungsverfahren bei der Nationalratswahl". Österreichisches Parlament. 21 October 2017. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
    5. ↑ "Vorzugsstimmenvergabe bei einer Nationalratswahl". State of Austria (official website). Retrieved 16 October 2019.
    6. ↑ "Vorzugsstimmenvergabe bei einer Nationalratswahl". HELP.gv.at. 1 January 2017. Retrieved 28 October 2017.
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