Opinion polling for the next Slovak parliamentary election

Last updated

In the run up to the next Slovak parliamentary election, various organisations are carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Slovakia. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous parliamentary election, held on 30 September 2023.

Contents

Electoral polling

Graphical summary

A local regression graph of all polls conducted Opinion polling for the next Slovak parliamentary election.svg
A local regression graph of all polls conducted

Voting intention estimates

Voting intention estimates made by polling firms that are members of the European Society for Opinion and Marketing Research (ESOMAR) and the Slovak Association of Research Agencies (SAVA). They are conducted in the form of telephone and personal interviews with selected persons, who form a representative sample reflecting the demographic parameters of the population of Slovakia. Respondents are asked: "Imagine that a parliamentary election would be held in Slovakia next Saturday. Would you vote in them and if so, which party would you vote for?" Respondents are read a list of currently active political parties.

Results are published that include only the answers of respondents who would vote for a particular party. The table shows political parties that have exceeded the electoral threshold in the last parliamentary election or oscillate above 4% in the polls. The electoral threshold is 5% for a single party, 7% for two- or three-party alliances, and 10% for party alliances of four or more parties. 76 seats are required for an absolute majority in the National Council.

Polling firmDateSample
size
Smer PS Hlas OĽaNO and Friends KDH SASKA SNS Republika Hungarian
Alliance
Democrats We Are Family ĽSNS OthersLead
Slovakia
Ipsos [1] 10–14 Mar 20251,03222.121.412.55.97.86.32.07.43.95.02.50.7
NMS [2] 5–9 Mar 20251,00121.423.88.86.82.20.86.06.22.08.13.84.14.10.81.12.4
Focus [3] 7–12 Feb 20251,01021.722.111.85.60.60.47.86.23.77.84.64.62.60.40.4
AKO [4] 5–12 Feb 20251,00022.124.112.56.06.96.44.15.73.14.62.90.31.32.0
NMS [5] 5–9 Feb 20251,00122.524.610.55.82.10.96.66.11.57.43.23.04.10.80.12.1
AKO [6] 14–24 Jan 20251,00022.524.613.05.40.36.77.14.25.13.44.62.20.80.12.1
Ipsos [7] 11–17 Jan 20251,03122.223.011.15.61.97.36.32.07.73.74.02.81.11.20.8
NMS [8] 9–13 Jan 20251,00118.423.911.56.32.30.85.96.72.18.93.44.03.61.40.25.5
AKO [9] 16–19 Dec 20241,00020.322.813.96.20.27.36.64.65.43.24.33.80.31.12.5
NMS [10] 4–9 Dec 20241,00019.124.810.76.52.90.75.54.82.99.53.23.93.41.40.45.7
Focus [11] 2–8 Dec 20241,02220.821.513.85.26.96.13.78.15.64.02.20.7
AKO [12] 12–20 Nov 20241,00020.721.214.76.60.16.76.94.75.93.74.13.60.40.70.5
Focus [13] 6–13 Nov 20241,01821.922.613.33.66.26.73.68.64.84.63.30.80.7
NMS [14] 7–11 Nov 20241,00019.125.110.84.71.00.36.46.03.38.73.74.44.31.00.56.0
Ipsos [15] 27 Oct–1 Nov 20241,00321.922.612.83.61.60.86.96.22.47.74.04.43.01.20.60.7
AKO [16] 8–17 Oct 20241,00021.321.315.05.96.26.54.86.83.44.72.60.60.9Tie
NMS [17] 2–7 Oct 20241,00020.524.412.05.20.26.96.22.97.43.65.13.91.30.73.9
Focus [18] 17–26 Sep 20241,01723.322.112.84.16.05.64.77.95.25.03.20.11.2
AKO [19] 10–16 Sep 20241,00022.822.415.13.96.86.44.95.43.74.92.60.90.4
Ipsos [20] 6–10 Sep 20241,02525.521.611.94.96.07.03.46.34.95.12.03.9
NMS [21] 5–9 Sep 20241,00123.924.512.63.90.66.26.13.56.03.43.33.91.20.6
NMS [22] 8–12 Aug 20241,01422.423.114.34.40.86.25.83.27.03.24.53.21.10.7
AKO [23] 6–12 Aug 20241,00023.622.015.93.66.96.24.95.23.44.52.70.20.91.6
Focus [24] 9–14 Jul 20241,01325.721.311.34.47.37.23.46.54.54.72.71.04.4
AKO [25] 9–15 Jul 20241,00023.521.715.53.57.45.65.05.64.34.42.30.50.71.8
NMS [26] 4–8 Jul 20241,02022.522.613.14.21.26.05.14.17.03.44.63.71.51.20.1
Ipsos [27] 26 Jun–1 Jul 20241,01725.222.313.54.16.36.13.16.84.34.71.80.90.82.9
AKO [28] 11–18 Jun 20241,00023.822.815.24.76.85.35.16.03.44.12.10.81.0
Focus [29] 5–12 Jun 20241,02524.221.614.54.16.66.14.77.35.23.61.82.6
European election 8 Jun 20241,476,96824.7727.827.181.990.637.154.921.9012.533.804.690.482.063.05
NMS [30] 30 May–3 Jun 20241,02022.423.715.83.40.95.65.64.57.43.52.93.00.81.3
Ipsos [31] 14–21 May 202474325.021.014.04.97.18.03.55.14.13.42.94.0
AKO [32] 7–14 May 20241,00021.820.817.24.77.36.75.25.13.93.63.10.61.0
NMS [33] 9–13 May 20241,02020.923.114.95.50.75.46.63.77.93.53.43.20.62.2
Focus [34] 17–24 Apr 20241,01721.119.718.05.26.97.05.35.54.53.52.30.90.11.4
AKO [35] 9–16 Apr 20241,00021.220.116.55.27.96.55.14.94.93.32.30.81.31.1
Focus [36] 28 Mar–4 Apr 20241,01521.620.117.96.46.35.45.14.65.03.71.81.91.5
Ipsos [37] 16–19 Mar 20241,00921.620.216.35.86.26.74.15.04.63.83.01.4
AKO [38] 11–18 Mar 20241,00022.121.015.95.68.16.75.13.94.63.22.01.30.51.1
Ipsos [39] 12–16 Mar 20241,03823.420.817.15.66.26.35.34.23.62.63.12.6
Ipsos [40] 16–21 Feb 20241,02822.721.316.55.86.76.44.25.23.42.43.21.60.51.4
Focus [41] 14–21 Feb 20241,02521.118.917.25.96.16.25.84.25.43.52.62.70.42.2
NMS [42] 14–18 Feb 20241,02221.022.016.96.07.25.74.25.83.32.53.61.60.21.0
AKO [43] 5–12 Feb 20241,00024.022.614.56.08.26.25.33.74.61.52.80.20.41.4
Ipsos [44] 22–25 Jan 20241,02224.520.615.45.36.66.64.35.14.03.02.41.60.53.9
Focus [45] 16–23 Jan 20241,01521.619.417.96.56.25.55.74.84.63.52.41.70.22.2
AKO [46] 11–16 Jan 20241,04822.119.914.37.08.76.05.45.34.33.22.41.00.42.2
NMS [47] 10–14 Jan 20241,03022.321.114.76.06.96.94.56.53.43.13.30.50.71.2
Ipsos [48] 13–18 Dec 20231,04824.119.415.75.96.47.14.85.24.03.62.70.80.54.7
AKO [49] 11–13 Dec 20231,00024.221.414.66.87.36.45.35.43.62.02.30.22.8
Focus [50] 15–22 Nov 20231,01523.817.914.66.47.56.45.85.35.02.92.81.20.45.9
AKO [51] 7–14 Nov 20231,00024.020.115.46.66.95.95.44.94.42.32.70.30.13.9
Ipsos [52] 2–7 Nov 20231,02124.019.115.17.05.86.35.15.84.43.12.31.11.04.9
2023 election 30 Sep 20232,967,89622.9517.9614.708.906.826.325.634.754.392.932.210.841.604.99

Seat projections

76 seats are required for an absolute majority in the National Council.

Polling firmDateSample
size
Smer PS Hlas OĽaNO and Friends KDH SASKA SNS Republic Hungarian
Alliance
Democrats Lead Gov. Opp.
Ipsos [1] 10–14 Mar 20251,0323836211013110130825991
NMS [2] 5–9 Mar 20251,0014044161311110150045694
Focus [3] 7–12 Feb 20251,0104040211014110140006189
AKO [4] 5–12 Feb 20251,0004043221112120100036288
NMS [5] 5–9 Feb 20251,0014144191012110130036090
AKO [6] 14–24 Jan 20251,00040442391213090046387
Ipsos [7] 11–17 Jan 20251,0314042201013110140026090
NMS [8] 9–13 Jan 20251,00134442112121101600105595
AKO [9] 16–19 Dec 20241,0003742251113120100056288
NMS [10] 4–9 Dec 20241,0003749211311001900125892
Focus [11] 2–8 Dec 20241,022363723912100149015991
AKO [12] 12–20 Nov 20241,0003739271212120110026486
Focus [13] 6–13 Nov 20241,018414325012130160026684
NMS [14] 7–11 Nov 20241,0003850210121201700125991
Ipsos [15] 27 Oct–1 Nov 20241,003424325013120150016783
AKO [16] 8–17 Oct 20241,000414129012130140007080
NMS [17] 2–7 Oct 20241,000354220912100130975595
374522013110130985991
Focus [18] 17–26 Sep 20241,017403822010100139826288
AKO [19] 10–16 Sep 20241,000434329013120100007278
Ipsos [20] 6–10 Sep 20241,025463921011130110976783
NMS [21] 5–9 Sep 20241,001454624012120110016981
AKO [23] 6–12 Aug 20241,000444130013120100037476
AKO [25] 9–15 Jul 20241,000423927013109100037872
Ipsos [27] 26 Jun–1 Jul 20241,017474225012110130057278
AKO [28] 11–18 Jun 20241,00042402701299110027872
Focus [29] 5–12 Jun 20241,025433825011110139056882
AKO [32] 7–14 May 20241,00039373101312990027971
Focus [34] 17–24 Apr 20241,017383633012129100028070
AKO [35] 9–16 Apr 20241,000413932015131000028367
Focus [36] 28 Mar–4 Apr 20241,01540373301210909038268
AKO [38] 11–18 Mar 20241,000424030015131000028268
Ipsos [39] 12–16 Mar 20241,038423730101111090057278
Ipsos [40] 16–21 Feb 20241,028413829101211090037080
Focus [41] 14–21 Feb 20241,0253935320111211010048268
AKO [43] 5–12 Feb 20241,000454227015111000058268
Focus [45] 16–23 Jan 20241,015433835012111100058961
AKO [46] 11–16 Jan 20241,048373424121510990057080
Ipsos [48] 13–18 Dec 20231,0484737300121401000107773
AKO [49] 11–13 Dec 20231,000433826013119100057872
Focus [50] 15–22 Nov 20231,0154231250131110990117773
AKO [51] 7–14 Nov 20231,000473930013111000088763
2023 election 30 Sep 20232,967,89642322716121110000107971

References

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