Opinion polling for the next Slovak parliamentary election

Last updated

In the run up to the next Slovak parliamentary election, various organisations are carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Slovakia. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous parliamentary election, held on 30 September 2023.

Contents

Electoral polling

Graphical summary

A local regression graph of all polls conducted Opinion polling for the next Slovak parliamentary election.svg
A local regression graph of all polls conducted

Voting intention estimates

Voting intention estimates made by polling firms that are members of the European Society for Opinion and Marketing Research (ESOMAR) and the Slovak Association of Research Agencies (SAVA). They are conducted in the form of telephone and personal interviews with selected persons, who form a representative sample reflecting the demographic parameters of the population of Slovakia. Respondents are asked: "Imagine that a parliamentary election would be held in Slovakia next Saturday. Would you vote in them and if so, which party would you vote for?" Respondents are read a list of currently active political parties.

Results are published that include only the answers of respondents who would vote for a particular party. The table shows political parties that have exceeded the electoral threshold in the last parliamentary election or oscillate above 4% in the polls. The electoral threshold is 5% for a single party, 7% for two- or three-party alliances, and 10% for party alliances of four or more parties. 76 seats are required for an absolute majority in the National Council.

Polling firmDateSample
size		 Smer PS Hlas OĽaNO and Friends KDH SASKA SNS Republika Hungarian
Alliance 		Democrats We Are Family ĽSNS OthersLead
Slovakia ZĽ KÚ
Focus [1] 6–13 Nov 20241,01821.922.613.33.66.26.73.68.64.84.63.3–0.80.7
NMS [2] 7–11 Nov 20241,00019.125.110.84.70.36.46.03.38.73.74.44.31.01.56.0
Ipsos [3] 27 Oct–1 Nov 20241,00321.922.612.83.60.86.96.22.47.74.04.43.01.22.20.7
AKO [4] 8–17 Oct 20241,00021.321.315.05.96.26.54.86.83.44.72.60.60.90.0
NMS [5] 2–7 Oct 20241,00020.524.412.05.20.26.96.22.97.43.65.13.91.30.73.9
Focus [6] 17–26 Sep 20241,01723.322.112.84.16.05.64.77.95.25.03.2–0.11.2
AKO [7] 10–16 Sep 20241,00022.822.415.13.96.86.44.95.43.74.92.6–0.90.4
Ipsos [8] 6–10 Sep 20241,02525.521.611.94.96.07.03.46.34.95.12.0––3.9
NMS [9] 5–9 Sep 20241,00123.924.512.63.90.66.26.13.56.03.43.33.91.2–0.6
NMS [10] 8–12 Aug 20241,01422.423.114.34.40.86.25.83.27.03.24.53.21.1–0.7
AKO [11] 6–12 Aug 20241,00023.622.015.93.66.96.24.95.23.44.52.70.20.91.6
Focus [12] 9–14 Jul 20241,01325.721.311.34.47.37.23.46.54.54.72.7–1.04.4
AKO [13] 9–15 Jul 20241,00023.521.715.53.57.45.65.05.64.34.42.30.50.71.8
NMS [14] 4–8 Jul 20241,02022.522.613.14.21.26.05.14.17.03.44.63.71.51.20.1
Ipsos [15] 26 Jun–1 Jul 20241,01725.222.313.54.16.36.13.16.84.34.71.80.90.82.9
AKO [16] 11–18 Jun 20241,00023.822.815.24.76.85.35.16.03.44.12.1–0.81.0
Focus [17] 5–12 Jun 20241,02524.221.614.54.16.66.14.77.35.23.61.8––2.6
European election 8 Jun 20241,476,96824.7727.827.181.990.637.154.921.9012.533.804.69–0.482.063.05
NMS [18] 30 May–3 Jun 20241,02022.423.715.83.40.95.65.64.57.43.52.93.00.8–1.3
Ipsos [19] 14–21 May 202474325.021.014.04.97.18.03.55.14.13.42.9––4.0
AKO [20] 7–14 May 20241,00021.820.817.24.77.36.75.25.13.93.63.1–0.61.0
NMS [21] 9–13 May 20241,02020.923.114.95.50.75.46.63.77.93.53.43.20.6–2.2
Focus [22] 17–24 Apr 20241,01721.119.718.05.26.97.05.35.54.53.52.30.90.11.4
AKO [23] 9–16 Apr 20241,00021.220.116.55.27.96.55.14.94.93.32.30.81.31.1
Focus [24] 28 Mar–4 Apr 20241,01521.620.117.96.46.35.45.14.65.03.71.81.9–1.5
Ipsos [25] 16–19 Mar 20241,00921.620.216.35.86.26.74.15.04.63.83.0––1.4
AKO [26] 11–18 Mar 20241,00022.121.015.95.68.16.75.13.94.63.22.01.30.51.1
Ipsos [27] 12–16 Mar 20241,03823.420.817.15.66.26.35.34.23.62.63.1––2.6
Ipsos [28] 16–21 Feb 20241,02822.721.316.55.86.76.44.25.23.42.43.21.60.51.4
Focus [29] 14–21 Feb 20241,02521.118.917.25.96.16.25.84.25.43.52.62.70.42.2
NMS [30] 14–18 Feb 20241,02221.022.016.96.07.25.74.25.83.32.53.61.60.21.0
AKO [31] 5–12 Feb 20241,00024.022.614.56.08.26.25.33.74.61.52.80.20.41.4
Ipsos [32] 22–25 Jan 20241,02224.520.615.45.36.66.64.35.14.03.02.41.60.53.9
Focus [33] 16–23 Jan 20241,01521.619.417.96.56.25.55.74.84.63.52.41.70.22.2
AKO [34] 11–16 Jan 20241,04822.119.914.37.08.76.05.45.34.33.22.40.40.42.2
NMS [35] 10–14 Jan 20241,03022.321.114.76.06.96.94.56.53.43.13.30.50.71.2
Ipsos [36] 13–18 Dec 20231,04824.119.415.75.96.47.14.85.24.03.62.70.80.54.7
AKO [37] 11–13 Dec 20231,00024.221.414.66.87.36.45.35.43.62.02.30.2–2.8
Focus [38] 15–22 Nov 20231,01523.817.914.66.47.56.45.85.35.02.92.81.20.45.9
AKO [39] 7–14 Nov 20231,00024.020.115.46.66.95.95.44.94.42.32.70.30.13.9
Ipsos [40] 2–7 Nov 20231,02124.019.115.17.05.86.35.15.84.43.12.31.11.04.9
2023 election 30 Sep 20232,967,89622.9517.9614.708.906.826.325.634.754.392.932.210.841.604.99

Seat projections

Polling firmDateSample
size		 Smer PS Hlas OĽaNO and Friends KDH SASKA SNS Republic Hungarian
Alliance 		Democrats Lead Gov. Opp.
Focus [1] 6–13 Nov 20241,018414325012130160026684
NMS [2] 7–11 Nov 20241,0003850210121201700125991
Ipsos [3] 27 Oct–1 Nov 20241,003424325013120150016783
AKO [4] 8–17 Oct 20241,000414129012130140007080
NMS [5] 2–7 Oct 20241,000374522013110130985991
Focus [6] 17–26 Sep 20241,017403822010100139826288
AKO [7] 10–16 Sep 20241,000434329013120100007278
Ipsos [8] 6–10 Sep 20241,025463921011130110976783
NMS [9] 5–9 Sep 20241,001454624012120110016981
AKO [11] 6–12 Aug 20241,000444130013120100037476
AKO [13] 9–15 Jul 20241,000423927013109100037872
Ipsos [15] 26 Jun–1 Jul 20241,017474225012110130057278
AKO [16] 11–18 Jun 20241,00042402701299110027872
Focus [17] 5–12 Jun 20241,025433825011110139056882
AKO [20] 7–14 May 20241,00039373101312990027971
Focus [22] 17–24 Apr 20241,017383633012129100028070
AKO [23] 9–16 Apr 20241,000413932015131000028367
Focus [24] 28 Mar–4 Apr 20241,01540373301210909038268
AKO [26] 11–18 Mar 20241,000424030015131000028268
Focus [29] 14–21 Feb 20241,0253935320111211010048268
AKO [31] 5–12 Feb 20241,000454227015111000058268
Focus [33] 16–23 Jan 20241,015433835012111100058961
AKO [34] 11–16 Jan 20241,048373424121510990057080
AKO [37] 11–13 Dec 20231,000433826013119100057872
Focus [38] 15–22 Nov 20231,0154231250131110990117773
AKO [39] 7–14 Nov 20231,000473930013111000088763
2023 election 30 Sep 20232,967,89642322716121110000107971

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Direction – Social Democracy</span> Slovak political party

Direction – Social Democracy, also commonly referred to as Smer, is a left-wing nationalist and left-wing populist political party in Slovakia led by the incumbent prime minister Robert Fico. The party identifies as social-democratic, and was described as a combination of "leftist economics and nationalist appeal".

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Martin Poliačik</span> Slovak politician

Martin Poliačik is a Slovak expert on communication and critical thinking. He is the Director for Strategy and Partnerships at the Emile Foundation. From 2010 to 2020, he was a member of the National Council of the Slovak Republic. He is one of the founding members of the liberal party Progressive Slovakia. He previously co-founded the political party Freedom and Solidarity, which he left in November 2017 due to disagreements with its chairman, Richard Sulík. He studied systematic philosophy in Trnava, Slovakia, and prior to politics, he was a teacher at a Montessori school in Bratislava. From 2003 to 2006, he led the Slovak Debating Association as its executive director. Together with Linda Lančová, he wrote the book "Order in the Head ."

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 Slovak parliamentary election</span>

Parliamentary elections were held in Slovakia on 5 March 2016 to elect the 150 members of the National Council. The ruling left-wing populist Direction – Social Democracy (SMER–SD) party remained the strongest party, but lost its majority. The Slovak Democratic and Christian Union – Democratic Party (SDKÚ-DS), which led the government between 2000–06 and 2010–12, was defeated heavily, failing to cross the electoral threshold and losing its representation in the National Council. The centre-right Christian Democratic Movement (KDH) also failed to cross the threshold for the first time since 1990, whilst the far-right nationalist Kotleba – People's Party Our Slovakia (ĽSNS) entered parliament for the first time.

In the run up to the 2020 Slovak parliamentary election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Slovakia. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2019 Slovak presidential election</span>

Presidential elections were held in Slovakia in March 2019. Incumbent President Andrej Kiska did not run for a second term.

Elections were held in Slovakia's 8 self-governing regions on 4 November 2017.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Progressive Slovakia</span> Social-liberal political party in Slovakia

Progressive Slovakia is a liberal and social-liberal political party in Slovakia established in 2017. The party is led by Michal Šimečka, a former Vice President of the European Parliament. It is a member of the Renew Europe group and is a full member of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Party. PS currently has 6 MEPs: Ľudovít Ódor, Veronika Cifrová Ostrihoňová, Martin Hojsík, Michal Wiezik, Ľubica Karvašová, and Lucia Yar.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Michal Šimečka</span> Slovak politician

Michal Šimečka is a Slovak politician, journalist, and researcher, who served as a Vice-President of the European Parliament between 2022 and 2023, as well as Member of the European Parliament between 2019 and 2023. In 2020, Šimečka was elected vice-president of the European political group Renew Europe. He is a co-founder of the social-liberal Progressive Slovakia party, leading it from 2022.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Milan Uhrík</span> Slovak politician

Milan Uhrík is a Slovak politician, MEP and the leader of the Republic Movement. A former non-inscrit, he is now a part of the ESN group in the European Parliament. He is a former deputy of the National Council of the Slovak Republic for the far-right People's Party Our Slovakia (ĽSNS) and member of the Foreign Committee of the Slovak Republic.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 European Parliament election in Slovakia</span>

The 2024 European Parliament election in Slovakia was held on 8 June 2024 as part of the 2024 European Parliament election. This was the fifth European Parliament election held in Slovakia, and the first to take place after Brexit.

In the run up to the 2023 Slovak parliamentary election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Slovakia. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous parliamentary election, held on 29 February 2020, to September 30th, 2023.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Voice – Social Democracy</span> Slovak political party

Voice – Social Democracy, is a social democratic and populist political party in Slovakia. It was founded in 2020 by dissidents from Direction – Social Democracy (Smer) led by former prime minister Peter Pellegrini. In October 2022, it was admitted as an associate member of the Party of European Socialists (PES), although its membership was later suspended in October 2023.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Opinion polling for the 2016 Slovak parliamentary election</span>

In the run up to the 2016 Slovak parliamentary election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Slovakia. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2023 Slovak parliamentary election</span>

Early parliamentary elections were held in the Slovak Republic on 30 September 2023 to elect members of the National Council. Regular elections were scheduled to be held in 2024. However, on 15 December 2022 the government lost a no-confidence vote. Subsequently, the National Council amended the Constitution so that an early election could be held on 30 September 2023. This was the first snap election in the country since 2012.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Republic Movement</span> Far-right political party in Slovakia

The Republic Movement is an extremist far-right political party in Slovakia led by Milan Uhrík. The party is often regarded as neo-fascist despite some political experts contesting this description.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Democrats (Slovakia)</span> Political party in Slovakia

The Democrats, known as Together – Civic Democracy from 2018 until 2023, and later the Blue Coalition, is a Slovak political party founded in 2018 by Miroslav Beblavý. The party has changed leadership multiple times and is led by the former Minister of Defense of Slovakia Jaroslav Naď since 2 December 2023.

This page lists nationwide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the 2024 Slovak presidential election. Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading candidate's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication; however, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Michal Truban</span> Slovak businessman and politician (born 1983)

Michal Truban is a Slovak businessman and politician who has served as a Member of the National Council since 2023. He has been a vice-president of Progressive Slovakia since 6 June 2020.

Erik Tomáš is a Slovak politician and former television presenter. Since October 2023, he has served as the minister of labor, social affairs and family of Slovakia. Tomáš was a member of the National Council of Slovakia from 2016 until 2023, and state secretary at the ministry of Education in 2016.

This is a list of notable individuals and organizations who voiced their endorsement for the office of the Slovak president, including those who subsequently retracted or withheld their endorsement of any candidate during the 2024 Slovak presidential election.

References

  1. 1 2 "Popularita Smeru klesá, PS ho predbehlo aj v ďalšom prieskume". Sme (in Slovak). 18 November 2024.
  2. 1 2 "Prieskum: PS aj bez Korčoka získalo pred Smerom náskok". Sme (in Slovak). 13 November 2024.
  3. 1 2 "Progresívne Slovensko predbehlo Smer v ďalšom prieskume, na úkor Fica rastie Republika". Denník N (in Slovak). 5 November 2024.
  4. 1 2 "Aj druhý októbrový prieskum naznačuje pokles Smeru. Fico prispôsobuje taktiku". Sme (in Slovak). 21 October 2024.
  5. 1 2 "Smer po ohlásení vyšších daní výraznejšie klesol". Sme (in Slovak). 9 October 2024.
  6. 1 2 "Šimečka dýcha Ficovi na krk. Rozdiel medzi Smerom a PS sa naďalej zmenšuje". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 30 September 2024.
  7. 1 2 "Prieskum AKO: Poradie strán sa nezmenilo, voľby by vyhral Smer pred PS". Sme (in Slovak). 23 September 2024.
  8. 1 2 "Smer by s 25 percentami vyhral voľby aj po lete, PS tesne zaostáva. Hlas klesá, Demokrati by boli v parlamente". Denník N (in Slovak). 12 September 2024.
  9. 1 2 "Prieskum NMS: PS a Smer si upevnili pozície lídrov". Sme (in Slovak). 11 September 2024.
  10. ↑ "Prieskum: Progresívne Slovensko a Smer zvádzajú súboj o prvé miesto". Sme (in Slovak). 21 August 2024.
  11. 1 2 "Voľby by vyhral Smer pred progresívcami, SNS by skončila mimo parlamentu". Sme (in Slovak). 19 August 2024.
  12. ↑ "Zostávam v politike, oznámil Korčok. Angažovať sa chce v parlamentných voľbách, no nehovorí za koho". Denník N (in Slovak). 3 August 2024.
  13. 1 2 "Prieskum: Oproti júnu sa preferencie zmenili minimálne, do parlamentu by prešli Republika aj SNS". Sme (in Slovak). 23 July 2024.
  14. ↑ "Stranícky volebný model: O prvenstvo bojuje PS a Smer". NMS Global (in Slovak). 17 July 2024. Retrieved 17 July 2024.
  15. 1 2 "Smer stále na čele, Danka by v parlamente vystriedala Republika. Demokrati tesne pod piatimi percentami". Denník N (in Slovak). 2 July 2024. Retrieved 3 July 2024.
  16. 1 2 "Prieskum: Smer a Progresívne Slovensko výrazne posilnili, delí ich len percento". Sme (in Slovak). 22 June 2024. Retrieved 22 June 2024.
  17. 1 2 "Prieskum: Hlas výrazne stratil, Smer posilnil, rástla aj Republika". Sme (in Slovak). 18 June 2024. Retrieved 18 June 2024.
  18. ↑ "Stranícky volebný model: Vo voľbách by zvíťazilo Progresívne Slovensko". NMS Global (in Slovak). 17 June 2024. Retrieved 18 June 2024.
  19. ↑ "Prieskum Ipsosu: Eurovoľby by nevyhralo PS, ale Smer, Republika má deväť percent". Denník N (in Slovak). 22 May 2024. Retrieved 24 May 2024.
  20. 1 2 "Prieskum AKO: Voľby by v máji vyhral Smer pred PS a Hlasom". Sme (in Slovak). 27 May 2024. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
  21. ↑ "Stranícky volebný model: Najvyššiu podporu má Progresívne Slovensko". NMS Global (in Slovak). 24 May 2024. Retrieved 24 May 2024.
  22. 1 2 "Republika späť v parlamente. Koalícii by pomohla k ústavnej väčšine". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 28 April 2024. Retrieved 28 April 2024.
  23. 1 2 "Preferencie sa zmenili minimálne, výrazne sa však k parlamentu priblížila Republika". Sme (in Slovak). 30 April 2024. Retrieved 1 May 2024.
  24. 1 2 "Parlamentné voľby by na prelome marca a apríla vyhral Smer, ukázal prieskum". Sme (in Slovak). 7 April 2024. Retrieved 7 April 2024.
  25. ↑ "Smer mierne klesol, Dankova SNS je na štyroch percentách". Denník N (in Slovak). 27 March 2024. Retrieved 27 March 2024.
  26. 1 2 "Poradie na prvých troch miestach sa nemení, Smer je stále najsilnejší". Sme (in Slovak). 20 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
  27. ↑ "Smer má 23 percent, protesty ním neotriasli. PS mierne zaostáva, darí sa aj Hlasu". Denník N (in Slovak). 18 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
  28. ↑ "PS sa doťahuje na Smer a zväčšuje si potenciál. Od volieb zosilnel aj Hlas". Denník N (in Slovak). 26 February 2024. Retrieved 26 February 2024.
  29. 1 2 "Vládna koalícia by mala teraz v parlamente silnejšiu väčšinu". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 26 February 2024. Retrieved 3 March 2024.
  30. ↑ "PS predbehlo Smer, SNS je mimo". Sme (in Slovak). 22 February 2024. Retrieved 22 February 2024.
  31. 1 2 "Smer si stále drží prvé miesto pred PS a Hlasom". Sme (in Slovak). 16 February 2024. Retrieved 16 February 2024.
  32. ↑ "Smer sa drží na 25 percentách, neklesá ani Hlas. Od volieb najviac stratil Matovič". Denník N (in Slovak). 29 January 2024. Retrieved 29 January 2024.
  33. 1 2 "Po sto dňoch vlády by mala koalícia v parlamente ešte silnejšiu väčšinu". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 4 February 2024. Retrieved 4 February 2024.
  34. 1 2 "Smer je stále najsilnejší, zásadné posuny v preferenciách nenastali". Sme (in Slovak). 18 January 2024. Retrieved 19 January 2024.
  35. ↑ "Účasť v koalícii sa SNS nedarí zúročiť". Sme (in Slovak). 19 January 2024. Retrieved 19 January 2024.
  36. ↑ "Smer zostáva najsilnejší". Denník N (in Slovak). 20 December 2023. Retrieved 20 December 2023.
  37. 1 2 "Voľby by v decembri vyhral Smer". Sme (in Slovak). 14 December 2023. Retrieved 15 December 2023.
  38. 1 2 "Prieskum: Dve strany hlásia návrat do parlamentu". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 26 November 2023. Retrieved 26 November 2023.
  39. 1 2 "Prieskum AKO: Voľby by vyhral Smer, Matovičovej strane zatiaľ zmena názvu škodí". Sme (in Slovak). 16 November 2023. Retrieved 16 November 2023.
  40. ↑ "Prvý povolebný model Ipsosu: Smer má 24 percent, PS 19. Matovičov nový názov ľudí mätie". Denník N (in Slovak). 13 November 2023. Retrieved 13 November 2023.
This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.