Opinion polling for the next Slovak parliamentary election

Last updated

In the run up to the next Slovak parliamentary election, various organisations are carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Slovakia. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous parliamentary election, held on 30 September 2023.

Contents

Electoral polling

Graphical summary

A local regression graph of all polls conducted Opinion polling for the next Slovak parliamentary election.svg
A local regression graph of all polls conducted

Voting intention estimates

Voting intention estimates made by polling firms that are members of the European Society for Opinion and Marketing Research (ESOMAR) and the Slovak Association of Research Agencies (SAVA). They are conducted in the form of telephone and personal interviews with selected persons, who form a representative sample reflecting the demographic parameters of the population of Slovakia. Respondents are asked: "Imagine that a parliamentary election would be held in Slovakia next Saturday. Would you vote in them and if so, which party would you vote for?" Respondents are read a list of currently active political parties.

Results are published that include only the answers of respondents who would vote for a particular party. The table shows political parties that have exceeded the electoral threshold in the last parliamentary election or oscillate above 4% in the polls. The electoral threshold is 5% for a single party, 7% for two- or three-party alliances, and 10% for party alliances of four or more parties. 76 seats are required for an absolute majority in the National Council.

Polling firmDateSample
size		 Smer PS Hlas OĽaNO and Friends KDH SASKA SNS Republika Hungarian
Alliance 		Democrats We Are Family ĽSNS OthersLead
Slovakia ZĽ KÚ
NMS [1] 4–9 Dec 20241,00019.124.810.76.52.90.75.54.82.99.53.23.93.41.40.45.7
AKO [2] 12–20 Nov 20241,00020.721.214.76.6–0.16.76.94.75.93.74.13.60.40.70.5
Focus [3] 6–13 Nov 20241,01821.922.613.33.6––6.26.73.68.64.84.63.3–0.80.7
NMS [4] 7–11 Nov 20241,00019.125.110.84.71.00.36.46.03.38.73.74.44.31.00.56.0
Ipsos [5] 27 Oct–1 Nov 20241,00321.922.612.83.61.60.86.96.22.47.74.04.43.01.20.60.7
AKO [6] 8–17 Oct 20241,00021.321.315.05.96.26.54.86.83.44.72.60.60.9Tie
NMS [7] 2–7 Oct 20241,00020.524.412.05.20.26.96.22.97.43.65.13.91.30.73.9
Focus [8] 17–26 Sep 20241,01723.322.112.84.16.05.64.77.95.25.03.2–0.11.2
AKO [9] 10–16 Sep 20241,00022.822.415.13.96.86.44.95.43.74.92.6–0.90.4
Ipsos [10] 6–10 Sep 20241,02525.521.611.94.96.07.03.46.34.95.12.0––3.9
NMS [11] 5–9 Sep 20241,00123.924.512.63.90.66.26.13.56.03.43.33.91.2–0.6
NMS [12] 8–12 Aug 20241,01422.423.114.34.40.86.25.83.27.03.24.53.21.1–0.7
AKO [13] 6–12 Aug 20241,00023.622.015.93.66.96.24.95.23.44.52.70.20.91.6
Focus [14] 9–14 Jul 20241,01325.721.311.34.47.37.23.46.54.54.72.7–1.04.4
AKO [15] 9–15 Jul 20241,00023.521.715.53.57.45.65.05.64.34.42.30.50.71.8
NMS [16] 4–8 Jul 20241,02022.522.613.14.21.26.05.14.17.03.44.63.71.51.20.1
Ipsos [17] 26 Jun–1 Jul 20241,01725.222.313.54.16.36.13.16.84.34.71.80.90.82.9
AKO [18] 11–18 Jun 20241,00023.822.815.24.76.85.35.16.03.44.12.1–0.81.0
Focus [19] 5–12 Jun 20241,02524.221.614.54.16.66.14.77.35.23.61.8––2.6
European election 8 Jun 20241,476,96824.7727.827.181.990.637.154.921.9012.533.804.69–0.482.063.05
NMS [20] 30 May–3 Jun 20241,02022.423.715.83.40.95.65.64.57.43.52.93.00.8–1.3
Ipsos [21] 14–21 May 202474325.021.014.04.97.18.03.55.14.13.42.9––4.0
AKO [22] 7–14 May 20241,00021.820.817.24.77.36.75.25.13.93.63.1–0.61.0
NMS [23] 9–13 May 20241,02020.923.114.95.50.75.46.63.77.93.53.43.20.6–2.2
Focus [24] 17–24 Apr 20241,01721.119.718.05.26.97.05.35.54.53.52.30.90.11.4
AKO [25] 9–16 Apr 20241,00021.220.116.55.27.96.55.14.94.93.32.30.81.31.1
Focus [26] 28 Mar–4 Apr 20241,01521.620.117.96.46.35.45.14.65.03.71.81.9–1.5
Ipsos [27] 16–19 Mar 20241,00921.620.216.35.8––6.26.74.15.04.63.83.0––1.4
AKO [28] 11–18 Mar 20241,00022.121.015.95.68.16.75.13.94.63.22.01.30.51.1
Ipsos [29] 12–16 Mar 20241,03823.420.817.15.6––6.26.35.34.23.62.63.1––2.6
Ipsos [30] 16–21 Feb 20241,02822.721.316.55.8––6.76.44.25.23.42.43.21.60.51.4
Focus [31] 14–21 Feb 20241,02521.118.917.25.96.16.25.84.25.43.52.62.70.42.2
NMS [32] 14–18 Feb 20241,02221.022.016.96.07.25.74.25.83.32.53.61.60.21.0
AKO [33] 5–12 Feb 20241,00024.022.614.56.08.26.25.33.74.61.52.80.20.41.4
Ipsos [34] 22–25 Jan 20241,02224.520.615.45.36.66.64.35.14.03.02.41.60.53.9
Focus [35] 16–23 Jan 20241,01521.619.417.96.56.25.55.74.84.63.52.41.70.22.2
AKO [36] 11–16 Jan 20241,04822.119.914.37.08.76.05.45.34.33.22.41.00.42.2
NMS [37] 10–14 Jan 20241,03022.321.114.76.06.96.94.56.53.43.13.30.50.71.2
Ipsos [38] 13–18 Dec 20231,04824.119.415.75.96.47.14.85.24.03.62.70.80.54.7
AKO [39] 11–13 Dec 20231,00024.221.414.66.87.36.45.35.43.62.02.30.2–2.8
Focus [40] 15–22 Nov 20231,01523.817.914.66.47.56.45.85.35.02.92.81.20.45.9
AKO [41] 7–14 Nov 20231,00024.020.115.46.66.95.95.44.94.42.32.70.30.13.9
Ipsos [42] 2–7 Nov 20231,02124.019.115.17.05.86.35.15.84.43.12.31.11.04.9
2023 election 30 Sep 20232,967,89622.9517.9614.708.906.826.325.634.754.392.932.210.841.604.99

Seat projections

Polling firmDateSample
size		 Smer PS Hlas OĽaNO and Friends KDH SASKA SNS Republic Hungarian
Alliance 		Democrats Lead Gov. Opp.
NMS [1] 4–9 Dec 20241,0003749211311001900125892
AKO [2] 12–20 Nov 20241,0003739271212120110026486
Focus [3] 6–13 Nov 20241,018414325012130160026684
NMS [4] 7–11 Nov 20241,0003850210121201700125991
Ipsos [5] 27 Oct–1 Nov 20241,003424325013120150016783
AKO [6] 8–17 Oct 20241,000414129012130140007080
NMS [7] 2–7 Oct 20241,000354220912100130975595
374522013110130985991
Focus [8] 17–26 Sep 20241,017403822010100139826288
AKO [9] 10–16 Sep 20241,000434329013120100007278
Ipsos [10] 6–10 Sep 20241,025463921011130110976783
NMS [11] 5–9 Sep 20241,001454624012120110016981
AKO [13] 6–12 Aug 20241,000444130013120100037476
AKO [15] 9–15 Jul 20241,000423927013109100037872
Ipsos [17] 26 Jun–1 Jul 20241,017474225012110130057278
AKO [18] 11–18 Jun 20241,00042402701299110027872
Focus [19] 5–12 Jun 20241,025433825011110139056882
AKO [22] 7–14 May 20241,00039373101312990027971
Focus [24] 17–24 Apr 20241,017383633012129100028070
AKO [25] 9–16 Apr 20241,000413932015131000028367
Focus [26] 28 Mar–4 Apr 20241,01540373301210909038268
AKO [28] 11–18 Mar 20241,000424030015131000028268
Ipsos [29] 12–16 Mar 20241,038423730101111090057278
Ipsos [30] 16–21 Feb 20241,028413829101211090037080
Focus [31] 14–21 Feb 20241,0253935320111211010048268
AKO [33] 5–12 Feb 20241,000454227015111000058268
Focus [35] 16–23 Jan 20241,015433835012111100058961
AKO [36] 11–16 Jan 20241,048373424121510990057080
Ipsos [38] 13–18 Dec 20231,0484737300121401000107773
AKO [39] 11–13 Dec 20231,000433826013119100057872
Focus [40] 15–22 Nov 20231,0154231250131110990117773
AKO [41] 7–14 Nov 20231,000473930013111000088763
2023 election 30 Sep 20232,967,89642322716121110000107971

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References

  1. 1 2 "Volebný model: Lídrom ostáva PS, zmeny sa dejú na 5% hranici". NMS Global (in Slovak). 11 December 2024.
  2. 1 2 "Voľby by v druhej polovici novembra vyhralo PS pred Smerom, ukazuje ďalší prieskum". Sme (in Slovak). 25 November 2024.
  3. 1 2 "Popularita Smeru klesá, PS ho predbehlo aj v ďalšom prieskume". Sme (in Slovak). 18 November 2024.
  4. 1 2 "Volebný model november 2024: PS rastie, Smer klesá. Napriek tomu by progresívci vyskladali vládu len ťažko". NMS Global (in Slovak). 13 November 2024.
  5. 1 2 "Progresívne Slovensko predbehlo Smer v ďalšom prieskume, na úkor Fica rastie Republika". Denník N (in Slovak). 5 November 2024.
  6. 1 2 "Aj druhý októbrový prieskum naznačuje pokles Smeru. Fico prispôsobuje taktiku". Sme (in Slovak). 21 October 2024.
  7. 1 2 "Volebný model – október 2024: Konsolidačný balíček mení preferencie voličov". NMS (in Slovak). 9 October 2024.
  8. 1 2 "Šimečka dýcha Ficovi na krk. Rozdiel medzi Smerom a PS sa naďalej zmenšuje". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 30 September 2024.
  9. 1 2 "Prieskum AKO: Poradie strán sa nezmenilo, voľby by vyhral Smer pred PS". Sme (in Slovak). 23 September 2024.
  10. 1 2 "Smer by s 25 percentami vyhral voľby aj po lete, PS tesne zaostáva. Hlas klesá, Demokrati by boli v parlamente". Denník N (in Slovak). 12 September 2024.
  11. 1 2 "Prieskum NMS: PS a Smer si upevnili pozície lídrov". Sme (in Slovak). 11 September 2024.
  12. ↑ "Prieskum: Progresívne Slovensko a Smer zvádzajú súboj o prvé miesto". Sme (in Slovak). 21 August 2024.
  13. 1 2 "Voľby by vyhral Smer pred progresívcami, SNS by skončila mimo parlamentu". Sme (in Slovak). 19 August 2024.
  14. ↑ "Zostávam v politike, oznámil Korčok. Angažovať sa chce v parlamentných voľbách, no nehovorí za koho". Denník N (in Slovak). 3 August 2024.
  15. 1 2 "Prieskum: Oproti júnu sa preferencie zmenili minimálne, do parlamentu by prešli Republika aj SNS". Sme (in Slovak). 23 July 2024.
  16. ↑ "Stranícky volebný model: O prvenstvo bojuje PS a Smer". NMS Global (in Slovak). 17 July 2024. Retrieved 17 July 2024.
  17. 1 2 "Smer stále na čele, Danka by v parlamente vystriedala Republika. Demokrati tesne pod piatimi percentami". Denník N (in Slovak). 2 July 2024. Retrieved 3 July 2024.
  18. 1 2 "Prieskum: Smer a Progresívne Slovensko výrazne posilnili, delí ich len percento". Sme (in Slovak). 22 June 2024. Retrieved 22 June 2024.
  19. 1 2 "Prieskum: Hlas výrazne stratil, Smer posilnil, rástla aj Republika". Sme (in Slovak). 18 June 2024. Retrieved 18 June 2024.
  20. ↑ "Stranícky volebný model: Vo voľbách by zvíťazilo Progresívne Slovensko". NMS Global (in Slovak). 17 June 2024. Retrieved 18 June 2024.
  21. ↑ "Prieskum Ipsosu: Eurovoľby by nevyhralo PS, ale Smer, Republika má deväť percent". Denník N (in Slovak). 22 May 2024. Retrieved 24 May 2024.
  22. 1 2 "Prieskum AKO: Voľby by v máji vyhral Smer pred PS a Hlasom". Sme (in Slovak). 27 May 2024. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
  23. ↑ "Stranícky volebný model: Najvyššiu podporu má Progresívne Slovensko". NMS Global (in Slovak). 24 May 2024. Retrieved 24 May 2024.
  24. 1 2 "Republika späť v parlamente. Koalícii by pomohla k ústavnej väčšine". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 28 April 2024. Retrieved 28 April 2024.
  25. 1 2 "Preferencie sa zmenili minimálne, výrazne sa však k parlamentu priblížila Republika". Sme (in Slovak). 30 April 2024. Retrieved 1 May 2024.
  26. 1 2 "Parlamentné voľby by na prelome marca a apríla vyhral Smer, ukázal prieskum". Sme (in Slovak). 7 April 2024. Retrieved 7 April 2024.
  27. ↑ "Smer mierne klesol, Dankova SNS je na štyroch percentách". Denník N (in Slovak). 27 March 2024. Retrieved 27 March 2024.
  28. 1 2 "Poradie na prvých troch miestach sa nemení, Smer je stále najsilnejší". Sme (in Slovak). 20 March 2024. Retrieved 20 March 2024.
  29. 1 2 "Smer má 23 percent, protesty ním neotriasli. PS mierne zaostáva, darí sa aj Hlasu". Denník N (in Slovak). 18 March 2024. Retrieved 10 December 2024.
  30. 1 2 "PS sa doťahuje na Smer a zväčšuje si potenciál. Od volieb zosilnel aj Hlas". Denník N (in Slovak). 26 February 2024. Retrieved 10 December 2024.
  31. 1 2 "Vládna koalícia by mala teraz v parlamente silnejšiu väčšinu". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 26 February 2024. Retrieved 3 March 2024.
  32. ↑ "PS predbehlo Smer, SNS je mimo". Sme (in Slovak). 22 February 2024. Retrieved 22 February 2024.
  33. 1 2 "Smer si stále drží prvé miesto pred PS a Hlasom". Sme (in Slovak). 16 February 2024. Retrieved 16 February 2024.
  34. ↑ "Smer sa drží na 25 percentách, neklesá ani Hlas. Od volieb najviac stratil Matovič". Denník N (in Slovak). 29 January 2024. Retrieved 29 January 2024.
  35. 1 2 "Po sto dňoch vlády by mala koalícia v parlamente ešte silnejšiu väčšinu". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 4 February 2024. Retrieved 4 February 2024.
  36. 1 2 "Smer je stále najsilnejší, zásadné posuny v preferenciách nenastali". Sme (in Slovak). 18 January 2024. Retrieved 19 January 2024.
  37. ↑ "Účasť v koalícii sa SNS nedarí zúročiť". Sme (in Slovak). 19 January 2024. Retrieved 19 January 2024.
  38. 1 2 "Smer zostáva najsilnejší". Denník N (in Slovak). 20 December 2023. Retrieved 10 December 2024.
  39. 1 2 "Voľby by v decembri vyhral Smer". Sme (in Slovak). 14 December 2023. Retrieved 15 December 2023.
  40. 1 2 "Prieskum: Dve strany hlásia návrat do parlamentu". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 26 November 2023. Retrieved 26 November 2023.
  41. 1 2 "Prieskum AKO: Voľby by vyhral Smer, Matovičovej strane zatiaľ zmena názvu škodí". Sme (in Slovak). 16 November 2023. Retrieved 16 November 2023.
  42. ↑ "Prvý povolebný model Ipsosu: Smer má 24 percent, PS 19. Matovičov nový názov ľudí mätie". Denník N (in Slovak). 13 November 2023. Retrieved 13 November 2023.
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