Opinion polling for the next Slovak parliamentary election

In the run up to the next Slovak parliamentary election, various organisations are carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Slovakia. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous parliamentary election, held on 30 September 2023.

Electoral polling

Graphical summary

A local regression graph of all polls conducted

Voting intention estimates

Voting intention estimates made by polling firms that are members of the European Society for Opinion and Marketing Research (ESOMAR) and the Slovak Association of Research Agencies (SAVA). They are conducted in the form of telephone and personal interviews with selected persons, who form a representative sample reflecting the demographic parameters of the population of Slovakia. Respondents are asked: "Imagine that a parliamentary election would be held in Slovakia next Saturday. Would you vote in them and if so, which party would you vote for?" Respondents are read a list of currently active political parties.

Results are published that include only the answers of respondents who would vote for a particular party. The table shows political parties that have exceeded the electoral threshold in the last parliamentary election or oscillate above 4% in the polls. The electoral threshold is 5% for a single party, 7% for two- or three-party alliances, and 10% for party alliances of four or more parties. 76 seats are required for an absolute majority in the National Council.

Polling firm	Date	Sample size	Smer	PS	Hlas	OĽaNO and Friends			KDH	SASKA	SNS	Republika	Hungarian Alliance	Democrats	We Are Family	ĽSNS	Others	Lead
						Slovakia	ZĽ	KÚ
Ipsos [1]	10–14 Mar 2025	1,032	22.1	21.4	12.5	5.9	–	–	7.8	6.3	2.0	7.4	3.9	5.0	2.5	–	–	0.7
NMS [2]	5–9 Mar 2025	1,001	21.4	23.8	8.8	6.8	2.2	0.8	6.0	6.2	2.0	8.1	3.8	4.1	4.1	0.8	1.1	2.4
Focus [3]	7–12 Feb 2025	1,010	21.7	22.1	11.8	5.6	0.6	0.4	7.8	6.2	3.7	7.8	4.6	4.6	2.6	–	0.4	0.4
AKO [4]	5–12 Feb 2025	1,000	22.1	24.1	12.5	6.0	–	–	6.9	6.4	4.1	5.7	3.1	4.6	2.9	0.3	1.3	2.0
NMS [5]	5–9 Feb 2025	1,001	22.5	24.6	10.5	5.8	2.1	0.9	6.6	6.1	1.5	7.4	3.2	3.0	4.1	0.8	0.1	2.1
AKO [6]	14–24 Jan 2025	1,000	22.5	24.6	13.0	5.4	0.3	–	6.7	7.1	4.2	5.1	3.4	4.6	2.2	0.8	0.1	2.1
Ipsos [7]	11–17 Jan 2025	1,031	22.2	23.0	11.1	5.6	1.9	–	7.3	6.3	2.0	7.7	3.7	4.0	2.8	1.1	1.2	0.8
NMS [8]	9–13 Jan 2025	1,001	18.4	23.9	11.5	6.3	2.3	0.8	5.9	6.7	2.1	8.9	3.4	4.0	3.6	1.4	0.2	5.5
AKO [9]	16–19 Dec 2024	1,000	20.3	22.8	13.9	6.2	0.2	–	7.3	6.6	4.6	5.4	3.2	4.3	3.8	0.3	1.1	2.5
NMS [10]	4–9 Dec 2024	1,000	19.1	24.8	10.7	6.5	2.9	0.7	5.5	4.8	2.9	9.5	3.2	3.9	3.4	1.4	0.4	5.7
Focus [11]	2–8 Dec 2024	1,022	20.8	21.5	13.8	5.2	–	–	6.9	6.1	3.7	8.1	5.6	4.0	2.2	–	–	0.7
AKO [12]	12–20 Nov 2024	1,000	20.7	21.2	14.7	6.6	–	0.1	6.7	6.9	4.7	5.9	3.7	4.1	3.6	0.4	0.7	0.5
Focus [13]	6–13 Nov 2024	1,018	21.9	22.6	13.3	3.6	–	–	6.2	6.7	3.6	8.6	4.8	4.6	3.3	–	0.8	0.7
NMS [14]	7–11 Nov 2024	1,000	19.1	25.1	10.8	4.7	1.0	0.3	6.4	6.0	3.3	8.7	3.7	4.4	4.3	1.0	0.5	6.0
Ipsos [15]	27 Oct–1 Nov 2024	1,003	21.9	22.6	12.8	3.6	1.6	0.8	6.9	6.2	2.4	7.7	4.0	4.4	3.0	1.2	0.6	0.7
AKO [16]	8–17 Oct 2024	1,000	21.3	21.3	15.0	5.9			6.2	6.5	4.8	6.8	3.4	4.7	2.6	0.6	0.9	Tie
NMS [17]	2–7 Oct 2024	1,000	20.5	24.4	12.0	5.2		0.2	6.9	6.2	2.9	7.4	3.6	5.1	3.9	1.3	0.7	3.9
Focus [18]	17–26 Sep 2024	1,017	23.3	22.1	12.8	4.1			6.0	5.6	4.7	7.9	5.2	5.0	3.2	–	0.1	1.2
AKO [19]	10–16 Sep 2024	1,000	22.8	22.4	15.1	3.9			6.8	6.4	4.9	5.4	3.7	4.9	2.6	–	0.9	0.4
Ipsos [20]	6–10 Sep 2024	1,025	25.5	21.6	11.9	4.9			6.0	7.0	3.4	6.3	4.9	5.1	2.0	–	–	3.9
NMS [21]	5–9 Sep 2024	1,001	23.9	24.5	12.6	3.9		0.6	6.2	6.1	3.5	6.0	3.4	3.3	3.9	1.2	–	0.6
NMS [22]	8–12 Aug 2024	1,014	22.4	23.1	14.3	4.4		0.8	6.2	5.8	3.2	7.0	3.2	4.5	3.2	1.1	–	0.7
AKO [23]	6–12 Aug 2024	1,000	23.6	22.0	15.9	3.6			6.9	6.2	4.9	5.2	3.4	4.5	2.7	0.2	0.9	1.6
Focus [24]	9–14 Jul 2024	1,013	25.7	21.3	11.3	4.4			7.3	7.2	3.4	6.5	4.5	4.7	2.7	–	1.0	4.4
AKO [25]	9–15 Jul 2024	1,000	23.5	21.7	15.5	3.5			7.4	5.6	5.0	5.6	4.3	4.4	2.3	0.5	0.7	1.8
NMS [26]	4–8 Jul 2024	1,020	22.5	22.6	13.1	4.2		1.2	6.0	5.1	4.1	7.0	3.4	4.6	3.7	1.5	1.2	0.1
Ipsos [27]	26 Jun–1 Jul 2024	1,017	25.2	22.3	13.5	4.1			6.3	6.1	3.1	6.8	4.3	4.7	1.8	0.9	0.8	2.9
AKO [28]	11–18 Jun 2024	1,000	23.8	22.8	15.2	4.7			6.8	5.3	5.1	6.0	3.4	4.1	2.1	–	0.8	1.0
Focus [29]	5–12 Jun 2024	1,025	24.2	21.6	14.5	4.1			6.6	6.1	4.7	7.3	5.2	3.6	1.8	–	–	2.6
European election	8 Jun 2024	1,476,968	24.77	27.82	7.18	1.99		0.63	7.15	4.92	1.90	12.53	3.80	4.69	–	0.48	2.06	3.05
NMS [30]	30 May–3 Jun 2024	1,020	22.4	23.7	15.8	3.4		0.9	5.6	5.6	4.5	7.4	3.5	2.9	3.0	0.8	–	1.3
Ipsos [31]	14–21 May 2024	743	25.0	21.0	14.0	4.9			7.1	8.0	3.5	5.1	4.1	3.4	2.9	–	–	4.0
AKO [32]	7–14 May 2024	1,000	21.8	20.8	17.2	4.7			7.3	6.7	5.2	5.1	3.9	3.6	3.1	–	0.6	1.0
NMS [33]	9–13 May 2024	1,020	20.9	23.1	14.9	5.5		0.7	5.4	6.6	3.7	7.9	3.5	3.4	3.2	0.6	–	2.2
Focus [34]	17–24 Apr 2024	1,017	21.1	19.7	18.0	5.2			6.9	7.0	5.3	5.5	4.5	3.5	2.3	0.9	0.1	1.4
AKO [35]	9–16 Apr 2024	1,000	21.2	20.1	16.5	5.2			7.9	6.5	5.1	4.9	4.9	3.3	2.3	0.8	1.3	1.1
Focus [36]	28 Mar–4 Apr 2024	1,015	21.6	20.1	17.9	6.4			6.3	5.4	5.1	4.6	5.0	3.7	1.8	1.9	–	1.5
Ipsos [37]	16–19 Mar 2024	1,009	21.6	20.2	16.3	5.8			6.2	6.7	4.1	5.0	4.6	3.8	3.0	–	–	1.4
AKO [38]	11–18 Mar 2024	1,000	22.1	21.0	15.9	5.6			8.1	6.7	5.1	3.9	4.6	3.2	2.0	1.3	0.5	1.1
Ipsos [39]	12–16 Mar 2024	1,038	23.4	20.8	17.1	5.6			6.2	6.3	5.3	4.2	3.6	2.6	3.1	–	–	2.6
Ipsos [40]	16–21 Feb 2024	1,028	22.7	21.3	16.5	5.8			6.7	6.4	4.2	5.2	3.4	2.4	3.2	1.6	0.5	1.4
Focus [41]	14–21 Feb 2024	1,025	21.1	18.9	17.2	5.9			6.1	6.2	5.8	4.2	5.4	3.5	2.6	2.7	0.4	2.2
NMS [42]	14–18 Feb 2024	1,022	21.0	22.0	16.9	6.0			7.2	5.7	4.2	5.8	3.3	2.5	3.6	1.6	0.2	1.0
AKO [43]	5–12 Feb 2024	1,000	24.0	22.6	14.5	6.0			8.2	6.2	5.3	3.7	4.6	1.5	2.8	0.2	0.4	1.4
Ipsos [44]	22–25 Jan 2024	1,022	24.5	20.6	15.4	5.3			6.6	6.6	4.3	5.1	4.0	3.0	2.4	1.6	0.5	3.9
Focus [45]	16–23 Jan 2024	1,015	21.6	19.4	17.9	6.5			6.2	5.5	5.7	4.8	4.6	3.5	2.4	1.7	0.2	2.2
AKO [46]	11–16 Jan 2024	1,048	22.1	19.9	14.3	7.0			8.7	6.0	5.4	5.3	4.3	3.2	2.4	1.0	0.4	2.2
NMS [47]	10–14 Jan 2024	1,030	22.3	21.1	14.7	6.0			6.9	6.9	4.5	6.5	3.4	3.1	3.3	0.5	0.7	1.2
Ipsos [48]	13–18 Dec 2023	1,048	24.1	19.4	15.7	5.9			6.4	7.1	4.8	5.2	4.0	3.6	2.7	0.8	0.5	4.7
AKO [49]	11–13 Dec 2023	1,000	24.2	21.4	14.6	6.8			7.3	6.4	5.3	5.4	3.6	2.0	2.3	0.2	–	2.8
Focus [50]	15–22 Nov 2023	1,015	23.8	17.9	14.6	6.4			7.5	6.4	5.8	5.3	5.0	2.9	2.8	1.2	0.4	5.9
AKO [51]	7–14 Nov 2023	1,000	24.0	20.1	15.4	6.6			6.9	5.9	5.4	4.9	4.4	2.3	2.7	0.3	0.1	3.9
Ipsos [52]	2–7 Nov 2023	1,021	24.0	19.1	15.1	7.0			5.8	6.3	5.1	5.8	4.4	3.1	2.3	1.1	1.0	4.9
2023 election	30 Sep 2023	2,967,896	22.95	17.96	14.70	8.90			6.82	6.32	5.63	4.75	4.39	2.93	2.21	0.84	1.60	4.99

Seat projections

76 seats are required for an absolute majority in the National Council.

Polling firm	Date	Sample size	Smer	PS	Hlas	OĽaNO and Friends	KDH	SASKA	SNS	Republic	Hungarian Alliance	Democrats	Lead	Gov.	Opp.
Ipsos [1]	10–14 Mar 2025	1,032	38	36	21	10	13	11	0	13	0	8	2	59	91
NMS [2]	5–9 Mar 2025	1,001	40	44	16	13	11	11	0	15	0	0	4	56	94
Focus [3]	7–12 Feb 2025	1,010	40	40	21	10	14	11	0	14	0	0	0	61	89
AKO [4]	5–12 Feb 2025	1,000	40	43	22	11	12	12	0	10	0	0	3	62	88
NMS [5]	5–9 Feb 2025	1,001	41	44	19	10	12	11	0	13	0	0	3	60	90
AKO [6]	14–24 Jan 2025	1,000	40	44	23	9	12	13	0	9	0	0	4	63	87
Ipsos [7]	11–17 Jan 2025	1,031	40	42	20	10	13	11	0	14	0	0	2	60	90
NMS [8]	9–13 Jan 2025	1,001	34	44	21	12	12	11	0	16	0	0	10	55	95
AKO [9]	16–19 Dec 2024	1,000	37	42	25	11	13	12	0	10	0	0	5	62	88
NMS [10]	4–9 Dec 2024	1,000	37	49	21	13	11	0	0	19	0	0	12	58	92
Focus [11]	2–8 Dec 2024	1,022	36	37	23	9	12	10	0	14	9	0	1	59	91
AKO [12]	12–20 Nov 2024	1,000	37	39	27	12	12	12	0	11	0	0	2	64	86
Focus [13]	6–13 Nov 2024	1,018	41	43	25	0	12	13	0	16	0	0	2	66	84
NMS [14]	7–11 Nov 2024	1,000	38	50	21	0	12	12	0	17	0	0	12	59	91
Ipsos [15]	27 Oct–1 Nov 2024	1,003	42	43	25	0	13	12	0	15	0	0	1	67	83
AKO [16]	8–17 Oct 2024	1,000	41	41	29	0	12	13	0	14	0	0	0	70	80
NMS [17]	2–7 Oct 2024	1,000	35	42	20	9	12	10	0	13	0	9	7	55	95
			37	45	22	0	13	11	0	13	0	9	8	59	91
Focus [18]	17–26 Sep 2024	1,017	40	38	22	0	10	10	0	13	9	8	2	62	88
AKO [19]	10–16 Sep 2024	1,000	43	43	29	0	13	12	0	10	0	0	0	72	78
Ipsos [20]	6–10 Sep 2024	1,025	46	39	21	0	11	13	0	11	0	9	7	67	83
NMS [21]	5–9 Sep 2024	1,001	45	46	24	0	12	12	0	11	0	0	1	69	81
AKO [23]	6–12 Aug 2024	1,000	44	41	30	0	13	12	0	10	0	0	3	74	76
AKO [25]	9–15 Jul 2024	1,000	42	39	27	0	13	10	9	10	0	0	3	78	72
Ipsos [27]	26 Jun–1 Jul 2024	1,017	47	42	25	0	12	11	0	13	0	0	5	72	78
AKO [28]	11–18 Jun 2024	1,000	42	40	27	0	12	9	9	11	0	0	2	78	72
Focus [29]	5–12 Jun 2024	1,025	43	38	25	0	11	11	0	13	9	0	5	68	82
AKO [32]	7–14 May 2024	1,000	39	37	31	0	13	12	9	9	0	0	2	79	71
Focus [34]	17–24 Apr 2024	1,017	38	36	33	0	12	12	9	10	0	0	2	80	70
AKO [35]	9–16 Apr 2024	1,000	41	39	32	0	15	13	10	0	0	0	2	83	67
Focus [36]	28 Mar–4 Apr 2024	1,015	40	37	33	0	12	10	9	0	9	0	3	82	68
AKO [38]	11–18 Mar 2024	1,000	42	40	30	0	15	13	10	0	0	0	2	82	68
Ipsos [39]	12–16 Mar 2024	1,038	42	37	30	10	11	11	0	9	0	0	5	72	78
Ipsos [40]	16–21 Feb 2024	1,028	41	38	29	10	12	11	0	9	0	0	3	70	80
Focus [41]	14–21 Feb 2024	1,025	39	35	32	0	11	12	11	0	10	0	4	82	68
AKO [43]	5–12 Feb 2024	1,000	45	42	27	0	15	11	10	0	0	0	5	82	68
Focus [45]	16–23 Jan 2024	1,015	43	38	35	0	12	11	11	0	0	0	5	89	61
AKO [46]	11–16 Jan 2024	1,048	37	34	24	12	15	10	9	9	0	0	5	70	80
Ipsos [48]	13–18 Dec 2023	1,048	47	37	30	0	12	14	0	10	0	0	10	77	73
AKO [49]	11–13 Dec 2023	1,000	43	38	26	0	13	11	9	10	0	0	5	78	72
Focus [50]	15–22 Nov 2023	1,015	42	31	25	0	13	11	10	9	9	0	11	77	73
AKO [51]	7–14 Nov 2023	1,000	47	39	30	0	13	11	10	0	0	0	8	87	63
2023 election	30 Sep 2023	2,967,896	42	32	27	16	12	11	10	0	0	0	10	79	71

References

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2. "Volebný model: Hlas výrazne padá, škodí mu najmä Fico a odchod Pellegriniho". TV Markíza (in Slovak). 16 March 2025.
3. "Prieskum: Voľby by sa skončili patom, PS zvádza tesný súboj so Smerom". Sme (in Slovak). 15 February 2025.
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5. "Volebný model: Premiér okrem rozpočtu konsoliduje aj preferencie svojej strany". NMS Global (in Slovak). 12 February 2025.
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7. "Ipsos: O prvé miesto súperia PS a Smer, Matovič sa vrátil nad päť percent. Opozícia by mala tesnú väčšinu". Denník N (in Slovak). 20 January 2025.
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