Opinion polling for the 2025 Polish presidential election

Last updated

During the months leading up to the 2025 Polish presidential election , various organizations carry out opinion polling to gauge voters' intentions in Poland. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

Contents

The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous presidential election, held on 28 June 2020, to the present day. The next presidential election is scheduled to be held on 18 May 2025, with a potential second round on 1 June 2025. [1]

Graphical summary

LOESS curve for the 2025 Polish presidential election, first round. First Round Polish 2025 Presidential Polling.svg
LOESS curve for the 2025 Polish presidential election, first round.

First round

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size
Nawrocki
PiS
Trzaskowski
PO
Hołownia
PL2050
Biejat
NL
Zandberg
Razem
Mentzen
Confederation
Jakubiak
WR
Woch
BS
Szumlewicz
Ind.
OthersDon't knowLead
United Surveys / WP.pl 10–12 Jan 20251,00029.034.26.74.61.513.01.20.00.27.65.2
Opinia24 / RMF FM 7–9 Jan 20251,00022.629.87.22.90.413.21.40.51.04.615.67.2
CBOS 7–8 Jan 20251,000313563212200174
United Surveys / WP.pl 20–22 Dec 20241,00028.836.210.25.810.11.37.67.4
IBRiS / "Wydarzenia" Polsat 19–21 Dec 20241,00026.235.710.16.19.61.60.010.89.5
IPSOS / TVP Info 17–18 Dec 202422358514301 [a] 1213
Opinia24 / RMF FM Dec 20241,00023.338.67.42.610.71.36.69.515.3
Pollster / "SE.pl" 10–11 Dec 20241,00528.7041.9610.673.2612.682.7313.26
United Surveys / WP.pl 6–8 Dec 20241,00030.336.97.94.87.30.512.36.6
SW Research / Wprost Nov 202413.138.68.511.83.724.225.5
Opinia24 / TVN24 Nov 202426419128415

Hypothetical polling

Hypothetical polling before confirmed candidates
Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size
Błaszczak
PiS
Bocheński
PiS
Czarnek
PiS
Jaki
PiS
Morawiecki
PiS
Nawrocki
PiS
Witek
PiS
Sikorski
PO
Trzaskowski
PO
Tusk
PO
Hołownia
PL2050
Kosiniak-Kamysz
PSL
Biedroń
NL
Dziemianowicz-Bąk
NL
Biejat
Razem/NL
Zandberg
Razem
Bosak
Confederation
Mentzen
Confederation
Jakubiak
WR
OthersDon't knowLead
Pollster / "SE.pl" 25–26 Nov 20241,01521351041141514
United Surveys / WP.pl 22–24 Nov 20241,00024.540.49.27.510.72.25.515.9
United Surveys / WP.pl 21 Nov 20241,00027.835.810.95.19.910.58.0
28.932.312.06.79.810.33.4
United Surveys / WP.pl 8–10 Nov 20241,00027.234.810.66.510.72.28.07.6
27.529.410.58.511.52.010.61.9
United Surveys / WP.pl 11–13 Oct 20241,00026.639.411.45.99.37.412.8
26.025.515.18.513.011.90.5
IBRiS / Rzeczpospolita 11–12 Oct 20241,07122.234.210.27.78.63.7 [b] 13.412.0
IBRiS / Onet 10 Sep 20241,00026.433.08.84.98.44.1 [c] 14.36.6
23.832.98.64.98.17.6 [d] 14.09.1
17.234.88.84.99.27.3 [e] 17.717.6
United Surveys / WP.pl 26–28 Jul 20241,00027.632.411.27.915.65.34.8
United Surveys / DGP, RMF 26–28 Jul 20241,00029.334.810.18.47.92.07.45.5
IPSOS / DoRzeczy.pl 1–3 Jul 20241,00027331171396
28321161584
United Surveys / WP.pl 7–9 Jun 20241,00024.829.213.62.66.67.1 [f] 16.14.4
United Surveys / WP.pl 24–26 May 20241,00025.629.210.23.47.98.2 [g] 15.53.6
United Surveys / WP.pl 10–12 May 20241,00025.529.613.84.49.317.44.1
OGB / Stan Polityki 22–25 Apr 20248047.2026.1529.345.7712.743.421.221.556.715.903.19
United Surveys / WP.pl 6–7 Apr 20241,00022.429.017.13.33.84.78.6 [h] 11.26.6
IPSOS / OKO.press, TOK FM 22–26 Feb 20241,0002526164103 [i] 91
United Surveys / WP.pl 23–25 Feb 20241,00025.930.823.14.58.07.74.9
Pollster / SE.pl 11 Feb 20241,06020.9232.5325.215.452.657.665.58 [j] 7.32
United Surveys / WP.pl 10–11 Feb 20241,00024.322.224.81.31.96.59.0 [k] 10.00.5
IBRiS / Radio Zet 9–10 Feb 20241,07016.128.324.05.2 [l] 26.44.3
IBRiS / Onet 26–27 Jan 20241,07024.925.824.64.33.58.08.90.9
Pollster / SE.pl 17 Dec 20231,0332730205183
United Surveys / DGP, RMF 8–10 Dec 20231,0002.69.91.224.50.911.91.22.72.21.633.1 [m] 6.612.6
IBRiS / Onet 24–25 Nov 202329.934.611.76.37.21.5 [n] 8.94.7
21.425.616.78.68.08.011.74.2
United Surveys / WP.pl 17–19 Nov 20231,00019.033.813.44.58.318.3 [o] 2.714.8

Second round

LOESS curve for the 2025 Polish presidential election, second round. Head-to-Head Polish 2025 Presidential Polling.svg
LOESS curve for the 2025 Polish presidential election, second round.

Nawrocki v. Trzaskowski

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size
Nawrocki
PiS
Trzaskowski
PO
Don't knowAbstainLead
United Surveys / WP.pl 10–12 Jan 20251,00044.550.35.25.8
Opinia24 / RMF FM 7–9 Jan 20251,00038.747.913.39.2
United Surveys / WP.pl 20–22 Dec 20241,00035.956.96.51.421.0
IPSOS / TVP Info 17–18 Dec 2024344212128
Opinia24 / RMF FM Dec 20241,00034.148.917.014.8
United Surveys / WP.pl 6–8 Dec 20241,00041.250.36.12.49.1
Pollster / "SE.pl" 25–26 Nov 20241,015425816
Opinia24 / TVN24 Nov 20244152711
United Surveys / WP.pl 22–24 Nov 20241,00033.755.96.83.622.2
IBRiS / "Rz" 22–23 Nov 20241,06826.249.712.311.823.5
IBRiS / "Wydarzenia" Polsat 7–9 Nov 20241,00036.449.9913.813.61
United Surveys / WP.pl 25–27 Oct 20241,00037.655.86.618.2

Hołownia v. Nawrocki

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size
Hołownia
PL2050
Nawrocki
PiS
Don't knowLead
Pollster / "SE.pl" 25–26 Nov 20241,015584216

Hołownia v. Trzaskowski

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size
Hołownia
PL2050
Trzaskowski
PO
Don't knowLead
Pollster / "SE.pl" 25–26 Nov 20241,015336734
United Surveys / WP.pl 25–27 Oct 20241,00029.551.618.922.1

Hypothetical polling

Hypothetical polling with different PiS candidate

Bocheński v. Trzaskowski

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size
Bocheński
PiS
Trzaskowski
PO
Don't knowLead
OGB / Stan Polityki 22–25 Apr 202480444.5955.4110.82

Czarnek v. Trzaskowski

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size
Czarnek
PiS
Trzaskowski
PO
Don't knowLead
IBRiS / "Wydarzenia" Polsat 7–9 Nov 20241,00035.250.915.915.7

Jaki v. Trzaskowski

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size
Jaki
PiS
Trzaskowski
PO
Don't knowLead
IPSOS / DoRzeczy.pl 1–3 Jul 20241,00039491210

Morawiecki v. Trzaskowski

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size
Morawiecki
PiS
Trzaskowski
PO
Don't knowLead
IPSOS / DoRzeczy.pl 1–3 Jul 20241,00038481410
Pollster 15 Jun 2024386224

PiS candidate v. Trzaskowski

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size

PiS
Trzaskowski
PO
Don't knowLead
United Surveys / WP.pl 21 Nov 20241,00039.258.52.319.3
IPSOS / PO  ? ?3653817
Hypothetical polling with Radosław Sikorski as KO candidate

Nawrocki v. Sikorski

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size
Nawrocki
PiS
Sikorski
PO
Don't knowLead
IBRiS / "Wydarzenia" Polsat 7–9 Nov 20241,00036.346.716.910.4
United Surveys / WP.pl 25–27 Oct 20241,00038.354.17.615.8

Czarnek v. Sikorski

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size
Czarnek
PiS
Sikorski
PO
Don't knowLead
IBRiS / "Wydarzenia" Polsat 7–9 Nov 20241,00035.346.518.311.2

PiS candidate v. Sikorski

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size

PiS
Sikorski
PO
Don't knowLead
United Surveys / WP.pl 21 Nov 20241,00042.454.92.712.5

Notes

  1. Romuald Starosielec (RNP) – 0
  2. Paulina Matysiak (Razem) – 3.7
  3. Jacek Siewiera (ind.) – 4.1
  4. Jacek Siewiera (ind.) – 7.6
  5. Jacek Siewiera (ind.) – 7.3
  6. Dorota Gawryluk  [ pl ] (ind.) – 7.1
  7. Dorota Gawryluk  [ pl ] (ind.) – 8.2
  8. Beata Szydło (PiS) – 8.6
  9. Krzysztof Stanowski (ind.) – 3
  10. Dorota Gawryluk  [ pl ] (ind.) – 1.89, Krzysztof Stanowski (ind.) – 1.11
  11. Beata Szydło (PiS) – 9.0
  12. Krzysztof Stanowski (ind.) – 3.2, Dorota Gawryluk  [ pl ] (ind.) – 0.2
  13. Adam Bodnar (ind.) – 1.4, Kacper Płażyński (PiS) – 1.3, Jarosław Kaczyński (PiS) – 1.3
  14. Joanna Scheuring-Wielgus (NL) – 1.5
  15. Beata Szydło (PiS) – 7.7

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References

  1. "Marszałek Sejmu ogłosił datę wyborów prezydenckich" [Marshal of the Sejm announced the presidential election day]. Polska Agencja Prasowa (in Polish). 8 January 2025. Archived from the original on 12 January 2025. Retrieved 13 January 2025.