Next Romanian parliamentary election

Last updated

Next Romanian parliamentary election
Flag of Romania.svg
  2024 On or before 26 November 2028

All 136 seats in the Senate
All 331 seats in the Chamber of Deputies
69 S and 166 D seats needed for a majority
 First partySecond partyThird party
 
Sorin Grindeanu (18 August 2022) (cropped).jpg
George Simion (4 mai 2025).jpg
Ilie Bolojan - 6 March 2025 (cropped).jpg
Leader Sorin Grindeanu George Simion Ilie Bolojan
Party PSD AUR PNL
Leader since20 May 2025 [a] 1 December 201912 July 2025
Leader's seat DTimiș DBucharest SBihor
Last election36 S / 86 D 28 S / 63 D 22 S / 49 D

 Fourth partyFifth partySixth party
 
Dominic Fritz (May 2025).jpg
Diana Iovanovici Sosoaca MEP (2024).jpg
Anamaria Gavrila (cropped).jpg
Leader Dominic Fritz Diana Șoșoacă Anamaria Gavrilă
Party USR SOS RO POT
Leader since13 June 202530 May 202231 July 2023
Leader's seatn/an/a [b] DHunedoara
Last election19 S / 40 D 12 S / 28 D 7 S / 24 D

 Seventh partyEighth party
 
Kelemen Hunor (22 February 2023) (cropped).jpg
Varujan Pambuccian (2).JPG
Leader Hunor Kelemen Varujan Pambuccian [c]
Party UDMR Minority parties
Leader sinceFebruary 201121 October 1996
Leader's seat DHarghita D – Nationwide [d]
Last election10 S / 22 D S / 19 D

Prime Minister before election

Ilie Bolojan
PNL

Prime Minister after election

TBD

The next Romanian parliamentary election will take place on a Sunday before 30 November 2028. [2]

Contents

Background

After the 2024 Romanian parliamentary election, a pro-European coalition was formed between the centre-left Social Democratic Party, the centre-right National Liberal Party, the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania and ethnic minority parties. [3] The liberal reformist Save Romania Union party also initially signed an agreement to enter government, but subsequently went into opposition. [4] [5] Following the results of the first round of the presidential election in May 2025 in which government-endorsed Crin Antonescu failed to advance to the run-offs, Ciolacu announced that Social Democratic Party would leave the coalition and resigned from the position of prime minister; Ciolacu stated that after seeing how Romanians had voted, "the governing coalition has no legitimacy, at least in this component"; at the same time, PSD ministers remained in the government on the interim basis. [6] On 6 May 2025, interim President Ilie Bolojan appointed Cătălin Predoiu to serve as interim Prime Minister. [7] The presidential election was won by Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan, who appointed Ilie Bolojan as the next Prime Minister on 23 June, leading a grand coalition with the same parties and Save Romania Union.

Electoral system

Both the 331 members of the Chamber of Deputies as well as the 136 members of the Senate are elected in 43 multi-member constituencies based on Romania's 41 counties, the Municipality of Bucharest, as well as the Romanian diaspora using party-list proportional representation. Law no. 208/2015 outlines that each constituency is to be awarded one deputy every 73,000 people and one senator every 168,000 people in accordance with the population data collected on 1 January of the previous year by the National Institute of Statistics (INS). Constituencies cannot have less than 4 deputies and 2 senators. [8]

Parties must pass a threshold of 5% of the national vote or at least 20% of the vote in four constituencies. Electoral alliances must pass a higher threshold, namely 8% for those with two member-parties, 9% for three and 10% for alliances of more. Further seats (currently 19) can be added in the Chamber of Deputies for ethnic minority groups that compete in the elections and pass a lower threshold (5% of the votes needed to win a seat in the lower chamber, calculated by dividing the number of votes of parties, alliances and independent candidates that passed the threshold by the amount of seats that they won). [9]

Following the elections, seats are allocated to the candidates of successful parties and lists in several stages, starting with constituencies, where seats are distributed according to the Hare quota of the constituency. Unused votes are then transferred and congregated at the national level, where remaining seats are distributed using the D'Hondt method, to ensure overall proportionality between a party's national vote share and its share of parliamentary seats. These remaining seats are then allocated to party candidates within the constituencies, based on the party results in each constituencies. [10] [11]

Opinion polls

Political polling in Romania has generally been associated with higher error rates compared to the European average. Among Romanian pollsters, INSCOP has recorded the lowest pre-election error rate at 14.0%, while CSPS (Centrul pentru Studii Politice și Sociologice) has been identified as having the highest, at 60.0%. Marius Lulea, the owner of CSPS, previously served as the first vice president of a political party. Several reports have also documented connections between certain pollsters and political actors. [12] [13]

Party polls

Opinion polls Romania 2028.svg
DatePoll sourceSample size PSD AUR PNL USR SOS POT UDMR PMP FD REPER SENS DREPT Others Lead
15–23 Jul 2025 INSOMAR 1,01217.036.514.413.21.92.54.90.70.50.77.719.5
10–12 Jul 2025 FlashData 7,50018.038.016.016.01.50.54.55.520.0
4–10 Jul 2025 CURS 1,06720381512445218
20–26 Jun 2025 INSCOP 1,15013.740.517.313.11.94.25.22.41.923.2
26–30 May 2025 INSCOP 1,15017.438.116.012.22.53.24.53.32.820.7
26–30 May 2025 CURS 1,28724351414525111
26–28 May 2025 Sociopol 1,00117361412236223319
23–28 May 2025 Avangarde 1,30020321615435111212
24–26 Apr 2025 FlashData 7,5001926159234227
3–5 Apr 2025 FlashData 7,50018.527.013.014.03.54.03.017.08.5
24–28 Mar 2025 Verifield 1,10021.231.715.012.93.67.05.11.20.80.60.910.5
14–16 Feb 2025 FlashData 7,50021.227.912.319.05.66.73.41.10.61.11.16.7
21–25 Jan 2025 CURS 1,10024221513510562
10–16 Jan 2025 Avangarde 1,354222913138543217
1 Dec 2024 2024 Chamber election 21.9618.0113.2012.407.366.466.332.051.242.991.166.843.95
2024 Senate election 22.3018.3014.2812.267.766.396.381.881.372.841.2454

Politician approval ratings

DatePoll sourceSample size Dan
Ind.
Bolojan
PNL
Georgescu
Ind.
Grindeanu
PSD
Simion
AUR
Predoiu
PNL
Fritz
USR
Șoșoacă
SOS
Kelemen
UDMR
Gavrilă
POT
Ponta
Ind.
4–10 Jul 2025 CURS 1,0673832263822192416
26–30 May 2025 INSCOP 1,15047.042.212.933.916.426.720.0
26–30 May 2025 CURS 1,287574236422722259
23–28 May 2025 Avangarde 1,300444022201915147

National approval rating

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample sizeIs Romania going on a good path/direction?
Yes check.svgX mark.svgBlue question mark (italic).svgNet
ApprovalDisapproval
FlashData10–12 Jul 20257,50023.071.06.0−48.0
CURS4–10 Jul 20251,06726.069.05.0−43.0
CURS26–30 May 20251,28734.059.07.0−25.0
Avangarde23–28 May 20251,30038.053.09.0−15.0

Notes

  1. (acting)
  2. stood for SBucharest in previous election, refused to take the seat.
  3. Pambuccian, a member of the Union of Armenians of Romania, has been the parliamentary leader of the national minorities' group since 1996.
  4. National minorities have nationwide mandates and do not represent a specific county. [1]

References

  1. Legea privind alegerea Senatului şi a Camerei Deputaţilor, precum şi pentru organizarea şi funcţionarea Autorităţii Electorale Permanente, cu modificările şi completările ulterioare [The Law on the election of the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies, as well as on the organization and operation of the Permanent Electoral Authority, with subsequent amendments and additions – Updated text](PDF) (208, 94.12) (in Romanian). 20 July 2015.
  2. "Romania". IPU Parline: Global data on national parliaments. 1 December 2024. Retrieved 27 February 2025.
  3. Mcgrath, Stephen; Ghirda, Vadim (23 December 2024). "Romanian lawmakers narrowly approve new pro-European coalition during period of political turmoil". AP News. Retrieved 27 February 2025.
  4. "Romania's pro-Western parties agree to form a majority government after political turmoil". Associated Press. 11 December 2024. Retrieved 11 December 2024.
  5. Service, s Romanian (14 February 2025). "Romanian Opposition Welcomes Vance Comments On Election Annulment". RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty. Retrieved 27 February 2025.
  6. "Marcel Ciolacu: PSD a votat în unanimitate ieşirea de la guvernare, prin urmare demisia mea, şi că nu va susţine niciun candidat în turul 2". Observator News (in Romanian). Retrieved 5 May 2025.
  7. "Romanian PM resigns and pulls out of coalition after nationalist vote win". BBC. 6 May 2025. Retrieved 7 May 2025.
  8. "Legea nr. 208/2015 privind alegerea Senatului şi a Camerei Deputaţilor, precum şi pentru organizarea şi funcţionarea Autorităţii Electorale Permanente" [Law no. 208/2015 regarding the election of the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies, as well as the organization and operation of the Permanent Electoral Authority]. Lege5 (in Romanian).
  9. "Articolul 56 – Legea nr. 208/2015" [Article 56 – Law no. 56/2015]. Lege5 (in Romanian).
  10. "Romania:Electoral Code (2015) —". aceproject.org. Retrieved 17 March 2025.
  11. Official Gazette of Romania, Part I, No. 553 of 24 July 2015. Official Gazette of Romania. 24 July 2015.
  12. Rogowiecki, Jakub. "Europe Elects. Truth in Polling. FINAL PUBLIC REPORT" (PDF). Europe Elects. Europe Elects. Retrieved 25 August 2025.
  13. Europe Elects. "Europe Elects. Truth in Polling". Europe Elects. Retrieved 25 August 2025.