Graphical summary
In the run up to the next Polish parliamentary election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Poland. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous parliamentary election, held on 15 October 2023, to the day of the next election.
To be represented in parliament electoral committees which are registered as political parties must reach an electoral threshold of 5% and those registered as coalitions must reach 8%. [1]
The following table displays the pollsters which have alleged funding and links to the political parties:
| Pollster | Alleged bias | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Research Partner | The company has strong ties to the Law and Justice party, and has consistently overestimated its support in past elections above the standard deviation of polling. | [2] [3] |
| CBOS | The institute is under the supervision of the Prime Minister of Poland, and is partially funded from the state budget. As such, it has been accused of greatly underestimating parties belonging to the opposition at any given moment for about the past 20 years. | [4] [5] |
Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size | United Right | Civic Coalition | Third Way | The Left | Confederation | Nonpartisan Local Government Activists | There is One Poland | Others | Don't know | Lead | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polish Coalition | Poland 2050 | ||||||||||||
| CBOS | 22-26 Apr | 1,000 | 26 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 2 | |||
| United Surveys / WP.pl | 19–21 Apr | 1,000 | 32.1 | 32.6 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 0.5 | ||||
| IBRiS / "Rz" | 19–20 Apr | 1,071 | 31.4 | 28.9 | 13.5 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | |||
| Pollster / "SE.pl" | 18–19 Apr | 1,074 | 32.77 | 32.31 | 11.17 | 9.23 | 9.64 | 2.89 | 1.75 | 0.24 | 0.4 | ||
| CBOS | 8–11 Apr | 1,000 | 23 | 35 | 10 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 12 | |||
| Opinia24 | 8–9 Apr | 1,000 | 26.4 | 33.8 | 11.8 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 5.8 | 7.4 | |
| Local elections | 7 Apr | 14,417,065 | 34.27 | 30.59 | 14.25 | 6.32 | 7.23 | 3.01 | 4.33 | 3.68 | |||
| OGB | 3–5 Apr | 1,000 | 34.75 | 33.34 | 13.02 | 4.47 | 10.38 | 2.28 | 1.76 | 1.41 | |||
| IBRiS / Onet | 4 Apr | 1,068 | 29.0 | 30.5 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 8.4 | 1.9 | 8.9 | 1.5 | |||
| Opinia24 | 2-3 Apr | – | 29.1 | 36.0 | 14.7 | 8.3 | 10.4 | 1.5 | 6.9 | ||||
| IBRiS / "Rz" | 22–23 Mar | 1,067 | 30.0 | 31.9 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 1.9 | ||||
| CBOS | 18–22 Mar | 1,000 | 24 | 29 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 1 | 17 | 5 | |||
| Pollster / "SE.pl" | 16–17 Mar | 1,072 | 32.02 | 30.81 | 13.57 | 9.19 | 9.88 | 2.79 | 1.34 | 0.40 | 1.21 | ||
| Research Partner | 8–11 Mar | 1,088 | 29.1 | 30.2 | 9.0 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 2.4 | 12.8 | 1.1 | |||
| Opinia24 | 6–7 Mar | 1,000 | 24.6 | 32.8 | 14.2 | 9.3 | 10.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 4.7 | 8.2 | |
| CBOS | 4–7 Mar | 1,000 | 23 | 29 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 2 | 13 | 6 | |||
| CBM Indicator / DoRzeczy.pl | 1–6 Mar | 1,001 | 27 | 32 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 6 [lower-alpha 1] | 5 | ||||
| IPSOS / OKO.press, TOK FM | 22–26 Feb | 1,000 | 30 | 29 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| United Surveys / WP.pl | 23–25 Feb | 1,000 | 28.2 | 32.6 | 15.2 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 1.1 | 5.3 | 4.4 | |||
| IBRiS / "Rz" | 23–24 Feb | 1,071 | 30.1 | 32.6 | 14.7 | 8.7 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 2.5 | ||||
| CBOS | 19–22 Feb | 1,000 | 22 | 29 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 14 | 7 | |||
| Pollster / TVP | 15–16 Feb | 1,034 | 30.85 | 31.17 | 17.07 | 8.20 | 8.06 | 1.74 | 2.23 | 0.68 | 0.32 | ||
| IBSP / Stan Polityki | 12–15 Feb | 1,000 | 32.98 | 34.20 | 15.25 | 4.89 | 9.36 | 2.53 | 0.79 | 1.22 | |||
| CBOS | 12–15 Feb | 1,000 | 24 | 29 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 15 | 5 | |||
| Research Partner | 9–12 Feb | 1,081 | 30.1 | 29.8 | 13.6 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 7.7 | 0.3 | ||
| Pollster / "SE.pl" | 11 Feb | 1,060 | 30.31 | 32.32 | 14.78 | 9.01 | 8.77 | 1.94 | 1.79 | 1.08 | 2.01 | ||
| United Surveys / WP.pl | 10–11 Feb | 1,000 | 29.0 | 31.7 | 15.3 | 10.2 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 5.8 | 2.7 | |||
| Opinia24 | 6–7 Feb | 1,001 | 24.0 | 31.0 | 16.8 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 5.7 | 7.0 | |
| President Andrzej Duda sends budget to the Constitutional Tribunal | |||||||||||||
| United Surveys / WP.pl | 26–28 Jan | 1,000 | 28.3 | 28.2 | 18.9 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 1.0 | 6.4 | 0.1 | |||
| CBOS | 22–26 Jan | 1,000 | 24 | 29 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 5 | |||
| Research Partner | 19–22 Jan | 1,119 | 30.3 | 30.1 | 13.5 | 10.1 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 6.0 | 0.2 | ||
| Pollster / "SE.pl" | 13–14 Jan | 1,048 | 32.78 | 31.69 | 16.79 | 7.85 | 7.89 | 1.28 | 1.50 | 0.22 | 1.09 | ||
| United Surveys / "WP.pl" | 12–14 Jan | 1,000 | 28.4 | 27.5 | 16.9 | 10.4 | 6.8 | 1.5 | 8.5 | 0.9 | |||
| IBRiS / "Rz" | 12–13 Jan | 1,067 | 33.9 | 30.2 | 16.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 0.5 | 2.9 | 3.7 | |||
| CBOS | 8–12 Jan | 1,000 | 29 | 29 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 12 | Tie | |||
| Opinia24 | 8–9 Jan | 1,002 | 26.3 | 24.3 | 17.3 | 9.4 | 10.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 8.9 | 2.0 | |
| IBRiS / Onet | 5–8 Jan | 1,000 | 34.2 | 32.0 | 14.1 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 5.0 | 2.2 | |||
| 2023 parliamentary election [6] | 15 Oct | 21,596,674 [6] [lower-alpha 2] | 35.38 | 30.70 | 14.40 | 8.61 | 7.16 | 1.86 | 1.63 | 0.22 | 4.68 | ||
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size | United Right | Civic Coalition | Third Way | The Left | Confederation | Nonpartisan Local Government Activists | There is One Poland | Others | Don't know | Lead | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polish Coalition | Poland 2050 | ||||||||||||
| Pollster / SE.pl | 17 Dec | 1,033 | 33.15 | 31.28 | 16.95 | 8.37 | 6.73 | 1.46 | 1.74 | 0.32 | 1.87 | ||
| United Surveys / WP.pl | 15–17 Dec | 1,000 | 33.0 | 28.4 | 19.1 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 4.6 | |||
| CBOS | 2–8 Dec | 1,000 | 30 | 25 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 5 | |||
| IPSOS / More in Common Polska | 1–8 Dec | 1,507 | 31 | 26 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 5 | |||
| Opinia24 | 5–6 Dec | 29.2 | 24.7 | 17.3 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 9.6 | 4.5 | ||
| United Surveys / WP.pl | 1–3 Dec | 1,000 | 35.2 | 28.8 | 16.0 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 2.3 | 6.4 | ||||
| IBRiS / "Rz" | 1–2 Dec | 1,071 | 31.5 | 27.0 | 7.3 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 4.5 | ||
| CBOS | 20–24 Nov | 821 | 29 | 24 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 5 | |||
| United Surveys / WP.pl | 17–19 Nov | 1,000 | 31.3 | 26.7 | 14.4 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 2.2 | 5.9 | 4.6 | |||
| Social Changes / wPolityce.pl | 10–13 Nov | 1,081 | 33 | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Pollster / SE.pl | 7–8 Nov | 1,014 | 35.34 | 30.77 | 16.68 | 6.90 | 7.01 | 1.36 | 1.75 | 0.19 | 4.57 | ||
| United Surveys / WP.pl | 3–5 Nov | 1,000 | 33.2 | 30.4 | 16.1 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 0.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | |||
| IBRiS / "Rz" | 3–5 Nov | 1,071 | 32.6 | 29.2 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 7.0 | 1.1 | 5.6 | 3.4 | ||
| United Surveys / WP.pl | 20–22 Oct | 1,000 | 32.8 | 29.9 | 18.7 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.9 | |||
| Parliamentary election [6] | 15 Oct | 21,596,674 [6] [lower-alpha 2] | 35.38 | 30.70 | 14.40 | 8.61 | 7.16 | 1.86 | 1.63 | 0.22 | 4.68 | ||
231 seats are needed for a Sejm majority, while 276 seats are needed for a three-fifths Sejm supermajority to override presidential vetoes. A supermajority for each house is shaded in scarlet red.
| Polling Firm/Link | Fieldwork Period | Sample Size | United Right | Civic Coalition | Third Way | The Left | Confederation | German Minority | Majority | KO+TD | KO+L+TD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polish Coalition | Poland 2050 | |||||||||||
| United Surveys / WP.pl | 19-21 Apr 2024 | 1,000 | 173 | 176 | 53 | 32 | 25 | 0 | Hung | –2 | 32 | |
| OGB | 3–5 Apr 2024 | 1,000 | 189 | 175 | 53 | 0 | 42 | 1 | Hung | –2 | –2 | |
| IBRiS / Onet | 4 Apr 2024 | 1,068 | 165 | 175 | 52 | 38 | 30 | 0 | Hung | –3 | 35 | |
| IBSP / Stan Polityki | 11 Mar 2024 | 1,000 | 166 | 166 | 75 | 17 | 36 | 0 | Hung | 11 | 28 | |
| Research Partner | 8–11 Mar 2024 | 1,088 | 180 | 170 | 42 | 35 | 33 | 0 | Hung | –18 | 17 | |
| IPSOS / OKO.press, TOK FM | 22–26 Feb 2024 | 1,000 | 176 | 157 | 63 | 12 | 52 | 0 | Hung | –10 | 2 | |
| Pollster / TVP | 15–16 Feb 2024 | 1,034 | 169 | 156 | 80 | 26 | 29 | 0 | Hung | 6 | 32 | |
| IBSP / Stan Polityki | 12–15 Feb 2024 | 1,000 | 178 | 173 | 69 | 0 | 39 | 1 | Hung | 12 | 12 | |
| Research Partner | 9–12 Feb 2024 | 1,081 | 176 | 159 | 66 | 40 | 19 | 1 | Hung | –5 | 35 | |
| IBRiS / "Rz" | 12–13 Jan 2024 | 1,000 | 177 | 155 | 78 | 34 | 16 | 0 | Hung | 3 | 37 | |
| IBRiS / Onet | 5–8 Jan 2024 | 1,000 | 194 | 166 | 67 | 29 | 4 | 0 | Hung | 3 | 32 | |
| Parliamentary election [6] | 15 Oct 2023 | 21,596,674 [6] [lower-alpha 2] | 194 | 157 | 65 | 26 | 18 | 0 | Hung | –8 | 18 | |
51 seats are needed for a Senate majority, while 374 seats are needed for a two-thirds National Assembly (Senate + Sejm) supermajority to impeach the president. A supermajority for each house is shaded in scarlet red.
| Polling Firm/Link | Fieldwork Period | Sample Size | Senate Pact | United Right | Confederation | Majority | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civic Coalition | Polish Coalition | Poland 2050 | The Left | SP Ind | |||||||
| Research Partner | 9–12 Feb 2024 | 1,081 | 74 | 26 | 0 | 24 | |||||
| Parliamentary election [6] | 15 Oct 2023 | 21,402,998 [6] [lower-alpha 3] | 66 | 34 | 0 | 16 | |||||
| Date(s) conducted | Polling firm/Link | Sample size | Approve | Disapprove | Don't know/Neutral | Net approval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22–23 Apr 2024 | IBRiS / Onet | – | 44.5 | 45.3 | 9.8 | –0.8 |
| 8-18 Apr 2024 | CBOS | 1,079 | 44 | 49 | 7 | –5 |
| 22–23 Mar 2024 | IBRiS / Onet | – | 39.7 | 51.4 | 8.9 | –11.7 |
| 7–17 Mar 2024 | CBOS | 1,089 | 50 | 39 | 11 | 11 |
| 8–18 Feb 2024 | CBOS | 994 | 44 | 45 | 11 | –1 |
| 23–24 Feb 2024 | IBRiS / Onet | 1,100 | 40.9 | 50.6 | 8.5 | –9.7 |
| 8–18 Feb 2024 | CBOS | 994 | 40 | 52 | –12 | |
| 11–21 Jan 2024 | CBOS | 1,015 | 46 | 42 | 4 | |
| 11–21 Jan 2024 | CBOS | 1,015 | 43 | 49 | 8 | –6 |
| Date(s) conducted | Polling firm/Link | Sample size | Approve | Disapprove | Don't know/Neutral | Net approval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22–23 Apr 2024 | IBRiS / Onet | – | 45.0 | 49.0 | 5.7 | –4.0 |
| 22–23 Mar 2024 | IBRiS / Onet | – | 39.2 | 51.4 | 9.3 | –12.2 |
| 7–17 Mar 2024 | CBOS | 1,089 | 44 | 43 | 13 | 1 |
| 8–18 Feb 2024 | CBOS | 994 | 46 | 41 | 13 | 5 |
| 23–24 Feb 2024 | IBRiS / Onet | 1,100 | 37.6 | 46.0 | 16.4 | –8.4 |
| Jan 30–5 Feb 2024 | CBOS | 994 | 43 | 47 | 10 | –4 |
| Jan 30–5 Feb 2024 | Morning Consult | 52 | 38 | 14 |
| Date(s) conducted | Polling firm/Link | Sample size | Approve | Disapprove | Neither | Don't know | Net approval | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7–17 Mar 2024 | CBOS | 1,089 | 37 | 38 | 22 | 3 | –1 | Tusk's government |
| 8–18 Feb 2024 | CBOS | 994 | 41 | 34 | 22 | 3 | 7 | Tusk's government |
| 12–14 Jan 2024 | United Surveys / WP.pl | 1,000 | 54.5 | 40.3 | 5.2 | 14.2 | Tusk's government | |
| 12–13 Jan 2024 | IBRIS / RZ | 1,067 | 56.3 | 36.9 | 6.8 | 19.4 | Tusk's government |
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