Opinion polling for the next Polish parliamentary election

Last updated

In the run up to the next Polish parliamentary election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Poland. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous parliamentary election, held on 15 October 2023, to the day of the next election.

Contents

To be represented in parliament electoral committees which are registered as political parties must reach an electoral threshold of 5% and those registered as coalitions must reach 8%. [1]

Polling aggregations

The following table displays the most recent aggregations of polling results from different organisations

Vote share

Poll Aggregator/LinkLast
Update
United Right Civic Coalition Third Way The Left Together Confederation Lead
Politico 10 Feb33339714Tie
ewybory.eu 13 Feb30.730.78.56.71.313.7Tie

Seat share

Poll Aggregator/LinkLast
Update
United Right Civic Coalition Third Way The Left Together Confederation Lead
ewybory.eu 20 Feb179164341706615

Pollster bias

The following table displays the pollsters which have alleged funding and links to the political parties:

PollsterAlleged biasSource
Research PartnerThe company has strong ties to the Law and Justice party, and has consistently overestimated its support in past elections above the standard deviation of polling. [2] [3]
CBOSThe institute is under the supervision of the Prime Minister of Poland, and is partially funded from the state budget. As such, it has been accused of greatly underestimating parties belonging to the opposition at any given moment for about the past 20 years. [4] [5]

Graphical summary

Polish Opinion Polling for the 2027 Election.png

Poll results

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

2025

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size
United Right Civic Coalition Third Way The Left Together Confederation There is One Poland Nonpartisan Local Government Activists OthersDon't knowLead
IPSOS / "19:30" TVP Info 17–18 Feb6213029106216151
Social Changes / wPolsce24 Feb2931861124 [a] 92
Opinia24 / RMF FM 10–13 Feb1,00227.931.88.05.52.918.70.74.63.9
Pollster / SE.pl 8–10 Feb1,07733.2131.378.906.851.6815.712.281.84
United Surveys / WP.pl 8–9 Feb1,00030.032.18.37.11.012.88.72.1
IBRiS / “Rz” 7–8 Feb1,06729.333.510.18.31.511.61.04.74.2
CBOS 3–5 Feb1,000303066213113Tie
IBRiS / Onet 31 Jan – 2 Feb1,06827.429.39.67.70.910.90.413.91.9
Opinia24 / ZET 23–29 Jan1,000293276116173
Research Partner 24–27 Jan1,06031.029.38.97.113.32.67.81.7
United Surveys / WP.pl 24–26 Jan1,00030.332.08.48.20.512.87.81.7
Opinia24 20–24 Jan1,00131.131.39.77.02.214.00.74.00.2
OGB 21–23 Jan1,00034.4633.077.245.780.4417.951.061.39
Pollster / SE.pl 17–18 Jan1,00433.6331.638.656.051.5914.244.212
IPSOS / "19:30" TVP Info 14–16 Jan1,000292910731228Tie
United Surveys / WP.pl 10–12 Jan1,00032.429.29.07.22.213.50.95.43.2
IBRiS / "Rz" 10–11 Jan1,06833.230.59.06.31.312.40.47.02.7
Opinia24 / RMF FM 7–9 Jan1,00030.731.98.65.62.013.50.57.31.2
CBOS 7–8 Jan1,00033337621315Tie
2023 parliamentary election [6] 15 Oct21,596,674 [6] [b] 35.3830.7014.408.617.161.631.860.224.68

2024

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size
United Right Civic Coalition Third Way The Left Together Confederation There is One Poland Nonpartisan Local Government Activists OthersDon't knowLead
United Surveys / WP.pl 20–22 Dec1,00027.431.310.49.00.39.90.711.03.9
IPSOS / TVP Info 17–18 Dec292910631517Tie
Opinia24 / RMF FM Dec1,00028.931.99.55.90.714.21.37.53.0
Pollster / SE.pl 10–11 Dec1,00532.3833.198.117.341.4713.184.330.81
United Surveys / WP.pl 6–8 Dec1,00032.333.29.98.010.30.06.30.9
IBRiS / "Rz" 6–7 Dec1,07134.834.58.67.40.87.36.60.3
Opinia24 3–6 Dec1,00129.232.19.96.72.513.71.54.42.9
CBOS 2–4 Dec1,000303386211283
Pollster / SE.pl 25–26 Nov1,01530.4532.869.118.211.1213.061.602.391.202.41
Opinia24 / TVN24 24 Nov1,00032357713243
United Surveys / WP.pl 22–24 Nov1,00029.932.59.78.510.50.08.92.6
CBOS 18–20 Nov1,000313276213191
Opinia24 / ZET 15–18 Nov1,00032338101341
Opinia24 12–15 Nov1,00130.034.07.88.213.01.45.64.0
Pollster / SE.pl 12–13 Nov1,04434.3032.327.685.821.5313.510.973.000.871.98
Research Partner 8–11 Nov1,08029.432.19.47.210.22.79.12.7
United Surveys / WP.pl 8–10 Nov1,00031.734.08.87.110.80.57.12.3
United Surveys / DGP, RMF 8–10 Nov1,00029.432.410.8 [c] 7.60.510.49.13.0
CBOS 4–6 Nov1,0002534573121149
27 Oct Left Together leaves The Left alliance and joins the opposition.
United Surveys / WP.pl 25–27 Oct1,00028.933.610.48.810.77.64.7
IBRiS / "Rz" 25–26 Oct1,06929.631.39.88.69.411.21.7
CBOS 21–24 Oct1,000293387111114
Opinia24 / TVN24 15–18 Oct1,00132.433.37.98.812.20.45.00.9
IBRiS / "Wydarzenia" Polsat 11–14 Oct1,00031.330.79.37.39.811.50.6
United Surveys / WP.pl 11–13 Oct1,00033.333.510.17.89.50.05.80.2
CBOS 7–10 Oct1,000282988131141
Opinia24 / "GW" 7–9 Oct1,00033.535.37.15.912.53.71.8
Pollster / SE.pl 5–6 Oct1,00731.4031.9410.698.7213.693.560.54
Pollster / "19:30" 29–30 Sep1,04731.9033.9910.519.9212.441.242.09
United Surveys / WP.pl 27–29 Sep1,00029.534.111.18.710.50.65.54.6
IBRiS / "Rz" 27–28 Sep1,06732.933.110.17.49.11.06.40.2
United Surveys / WP.pl 20–21 Sep1,00031.034.210.58.78.40.07.23.2
Research Partner 13–16 Sep1,04030.030.09.18.810.72.68.8Tie
CBOS 9–12 Sep1,000293298111103
IBRiS / "Wydarzenia" Polsat 9–10 Sep1,00032.132.910.88.49.36.50.8
Pollster / SE.pl 7–8 Sep1,06131.6432.248.8210.2112.614.480.60
Pollster / SE.pl 25.6530.868.5910.1311.6513.12 [d] 5.21
Opinia24 3–5 Sep1,00030.831.310.59.112.30.75.30.5
Social Changes / wPolsce24 30 Aug–2 Sep1,1903334119111
United Surveys / WP.pl 30 Aug–1 Sep1,00032.434.69.78.08.61.35.42.2
IBRiS / "Rz" 30–31 Aug1,06731.933.511.07.78.17.81.6
CBOS 26–29 Aug1,00028326916194
Pollster / "SE.pl" 8 Aug1,00131.6231.4810.069.1313.953.760.14
30.4131.1610.47 [e] 9.0314.434.500.75
Opinia24 5–8 Aug1,00027.833.911.48.212.41.44.96.1
United Surveys / WP.pl 26–28 Jul1,10028.333.010.99.99.61.96.44.7
IBRiS / Onet 24–25 Jul1,10029.032.110.58.711.90.47.43.1
Research Partner 19–22 Jul1,04028.930.78.68.312.02.51.27.81.8
CBOS 8–11 Jul1,000283191112093
Opinia24 8–11 Jul1,00027.131.411.69.013.82.44.64.3
Pollster / "SE.pl" 8–9 Jul1,02833.3135.069.219.013.300.211.75
United Surveys / WP.pl 5–8 Jul1,00027.231.29.07.711.00.013.94.0
CBOS 1–3 Jul1,0002831108140103
CBOS 24–27 Jun1,000303211911162
United Surveys / WP.pl 21–23 Jun1,00033.734.410.86.211.90.52.50.7
IBRiS / "Rz" 21–22 Jun1,06732.734.09.26.310.80.46.61.3
IBRiS / Onet 18–19 Jun1,10032.133.88.76.99.00.39.21.7
Opinia24 10–11 Jun1,00128.833.27.68.111.50.63.50.76.24.4
European Parliament election 9 Jun11,761,99436.1637.066.916.3012.080.930.560.90
IBRiS 3 Jun1,06731.333.111.68.29.00.26.61.8
Opinia24 27–28 May1,00129.829.711.28.311.61.03.60.54.30.1
IBRiS / "Rz" 23–24 May1,06830.331.812.78.97.009.31.5
CBOS 20–23 May1,0003030999113Tie
Pollster / "SE.pl" 19 May1,03132.4932.1510.879.339.463.162.540.34
Opinia24 13–14 May1,00030.132.513.37.012.11.73.32.4
Research Partner 10–13 May1,05131.529.711.49.19.11.50.57.21.8
United Surveys / WP.pl 10–12 May1,00033.332.011.69.09.80.14.21.3
CBOS 22–26 Apr1,0002628117142122
United Surveys / WP.pl 19–21 Apr1,00032.132.612.18.67.67.00.5
IBRiS / "Rz" 19–20 Apr1,07131.428.913.58.88.23.75.72.5
Pollster / "SE.pl" 18–19 Apr1,07432.7732.3111.179.239.641.752.890.240.4
CBOS 8–11 Apr1,00023351051421112
Opinia24 8–9 Apr1,00026.433.811.86.68.52.04.50.65.87.4
Local elections 7 Apr14,417,06534.2730.5914.256.327.233.014.333.68
OGB 3–5 Apr1,00034.7533.3413.024.4710.381.762.281.41
IBRiS / Onet 4 Apr1,06829.030.511.89.58.41.98.91.5
Opinia24 2-3 Apr29.136.014.78.310.41.56.9
IBRiS / "Rz" 22–23 Mar1,06730.031.910.79.58.69.31.9
CBOS 18–22 Mar1,000242998131175
Pollster / "SE.pl" 16–17 Mar1,07232.0230.8113.579.199.881.342.790.401.21
Research Partner 8–11 Mar1,08829.130.29.08.58.02.412.81.1
Opinia24 6–7 Mar1,00024.632.814.29.310.11.32.30.74.78.2
CBOS 4–7 Mar1,0002329129112136
CBM Indicator / DoRzeczy.pl 1–6 Mar1,00127321510106 [f] 5
IPSOS / OKO.press, TOK FM 22–26 Feb1,00030291361223141
United Surveys / WP.pl 23–25 Feb1,00028.232.615.28.59.11.15.34.4
IBRiS / "Rz" 23–24 Feb1,07130.132.614.78.77.66.32.5
CBOS 19–22 Feb1,0002229157112147
Pollster / TVP 15–16 Feb1,03430.8531.1717.078.208.062.231.740.680.32
IBSP / Stan Polityki 12–15 Feb1,00032.9834.2015.254.899.360.792.531.22
CBOS 12–15 Feb1,0002429118112155
Research Partner 9–12 Feb1,08130.129.813.69.36.81.61.17.70.3
Pollster / "SE.pl" 11 Feb1,06030.3132.3214.789.018.771.791.941.082.01
United Surveys / WP.pl 10–11 Feb1,00029.031.715.310.28.00.05.82.7
Opinia24 6–7 Feb1,00124.031.016.89.18.72.21.51.15.77.0
31 JanPresident Andrzej Duda sends budget to the Constitutional Tribunal.
United Surveys / WP.pl 26–28 Jan1,00028.328.218.99.67.61.06.40.1
CBOS 22–26 Jan1,000242914911595
Research Partner 19–22 Jan1,11930.330.113.510.16.72.21.16.00.2
Pollster / "SE.pl" 13–14 Jan1,04832.7831.6916.797.857.891.501.280.221.09
United Surveys / "WP.pl" 12–14 Jan1,00028.427.516.910.46.81.58.50.9
IBRiS / "Rz" 12–13 Jan1,06733.930.216.99.36.30.52.93.7
CBOS 8–12 Jan1,000292910710412Tie
Opinia24 8–9 Jan1,00226.324.317.39.410.90.91.70.38.92.0
IBRiS / Onet 5–8 Jan1,00034.232.014.18.85.00.95.02.2
2023 parliamentary election [6] 15 Oct21,596,674 [6] [b] 35.3830.7014.408.617.161.631.860.224.68

2023

Polling firm/LinkFieldwork
date
Sample
size
United Right Civic Coalition Third Way The Left Confederation Nonpartisan Local Government Activists There is One Poland OthersDon't knowLead
Pollster / SE.pl 17 Dec1,03333.1531.2816.958.376.731.461.740.321.87
United Surveys / WP.pl 15–17 Dec1,00033.028.419.18.77.70.82.34.6
CBOS 2–8 Dec1,000302513993125
IPSOS / More in Common Polska 1–8 Dec1,507312615107355
Opinia24 5–6 Dec29.224.717.38.08.01.71.20.39.64.5
United Surveys / WP.pl 1–3 Dec1,00035.228.816.010.07.72.36.4
IBRiS / "Rz" 1–2 Dec1,07131.527.017.6 [g] 9.39.01.83.84.5
CBOS 20–24 Nov821292413885135
United Surveys / WP.pl 17–19 Nov1,00031.326.714.410.49.12.25.94.6
Social Changes / wPolityce.pl 10–13 Nov1,08133321499211
Pollster / SE.pl 7–8 Nov1,01435.3430.7716.686.907.011.361.750.194.57
United Surveys / WP.pl 3–5 Nov1,00033.230.416.18.56.00.35.52.8
IBRiS / "Rz" 3–5 Nov1,07132.629.215.4 [h] 9.17.01.15.63.4
United Surveys / WP.pl 20–22 Oct1,00032.829.918.75.46.53.53.22.9
Parliamentary election [6] 15 Oct21,596,674 [6] [b] 35.3830.7014.408.617.161.861.630.224.68

Seat projection

231 seats are needed for a Sejm majority, while 276 seats are needed for a three-fifths Sejm supermajority to override presidential vetoes. A supermajority for each house is shaded in scarlet red.

Polling Firm/LinkFieldwork
Period
Sample Size United Right Civic Coalition Third Way The Left Confederation German Minority MajorityKO+TDKO+L+TD
United Surveys / WP.pl 8–9 Feb 20251,0001661793124590Hung-214
Research Partner 24–27 Jan 20251,0601801593722620Hung-34-12
United Surveys / WP.pl 24–26 Jan 20251,0001651753130581Hung-246
IBRiS / "Rz" 10–11 Jan 20251,0681841673518570Hung-28–10
Research Partner 8–11 Nov 20241,0801771744222450Hung-148
United Surveys / WP.pl 8–10 Nov 20241,0001721863323451Hung-1112
United Surveys / WP.pl 25–27 Oct 20241,0001551844333441Hung-330
Opinia24 / "GW" 7–9 Oct 20241,0001881852310540Hung-22-12
Research Partner 13–16 Sep 20241,0401791643633480Hung-303
United Surveys / WP.pl 30 Aug–1 Sep 20241,0001741883828311Hung-424
United Surveys / WP.pl 26–28 Jul 20241,0001531834640380Hung–139
IBRiS / Onet 24–25 Jul 20241,1001651694528530Hung–1612
Research Partner 19–22 Jul 20241,0401741683428560Hung–280
IBRiS / Onet 18–19 Jun 20241,1001861833320380Hung–146
IBRiS 3 Jun 20241,0671791744825340Hung–817
Opinia24 13–14 May 20241,0001681636018510Hung–711
Research Partner 10–13 May 20241,0511801565133391Hung–2310
United Surveys / WP.pl 19-21 Apr 20241,0001731765332250Hung–131
OGB 3–5 Apr 20241,000189175530421Hung–2–2
IBRiS / Onet 4 Apr 20241,0681651755238300Hung–335
Research Partner 8–11 Mar 20241,0881801704235330Hung–1817
IPSOS / OKO.press, TOK FM 22–26 Feb 20241,0001761576312520Hung–102
Pollster / TVP 15–16 Feb 20241,0341691568026290Hung632
IBSP / Stan Polityki 12–15 Feb 20241,000178173690391Hung1212
Research Partner 9–12 Feb 20241,0811761596640191Hung–535
IBRiS / "Rz" 12–13 Jan 20241,0001771557834160Hung337
IBRiS / Onet 5–8 Jan 20241,000194166672940Hung332
Parliamentary election [6] 15 Oct 202321,596,674 [6] [b] 1941576526180Hung–818

Senate seats projection

51 seats are needed for a Senate majority, while 374 seats are needed for a two-thirds National Assembly (Senate + Sejm) supermajority to impeach the president. A supermajority for each house is shaded in scarlet red.

Polling Firm/LinkFieldwork
Period
Sample Size Senate Pact United Right Confederation Majority
Civic Coalition Polish Coalition Poland 2050 The Left SP Ind
Research Partner 19–22 Jul 20241,0407030020
Research Partner 9–12 Feb 20241,0817426024
Parliamentary election [6] 15 Oct 202321,402,998 [6] [i] 6634016

Government approval ratings

President Andrzej Duda

Date(s)
conducted
Polling firm/LinkSample sizeApproveDisapproveDon't know/NeutralNet approval
9–19 Jan 2025 CBOS 972414811–7
10–12 Jan 2025 United Surveys / WP.pl 1,00045.048.46.6–3.4
28 Nov–8 Dec 2024 CBOS 915484573
3–13 Oct 2024 CBOS 1,025434611–3
27–28 Sep 2024 IBRiS / Onet 1,10044.139.316.64.8
12–22 Sep 2024 CBOS 94144479–3
Aug 2024 IBRiS / Onet 1,10041.048.610.4–7.6
14–25 Aug 2024 CBOS 93943489–5
24–25 Jul 2024 IBRiS / Onet 1,10040.349.110.5–8.8
4–14 Jul 2024 CBOS 1,07647476Tie
20 May–2 Jun 2024 CBOS 1,03842499–7
22–23 Apr 2024 IBRiS / Onet 44.545.39.8–0.8
8–18 Apr 2024 CBOS 1,07944497–5
22–23 Mar 2024 IBRiS / Onet 39.751.48.9–11.7
7–17 Mar 2024 CBOS 1,08950391111
8–18 Feb 2024 CBOS 994444511–1
23–24 Feb 2024 IBRiS / Onet 1,10040.950.68.5–9.7
8–18 Feb 2024 CBOS 9944052–12
11–21 Jan 2024 CBOS 1,01546424
11–21 Jan 2024 CBOS 1,01543498–6

Prime Minister Donald Tusk

Date(s)
conducted
Polling firm/LinkSample sizeApproveDisapproveNeitherDon't know/NeutralNet approval
20–22 Dec 2024 United Surveys / WP.pl 1,00047.148.74.2–1.6
8–21 Nov 2024 CBOS 981375112–14
11–12 Oct 2024 IBRiS / Onet 1,07139.352.58.3–13.2
27–28 Sep 2024 IBRiS / Onet 1,10045.644.310.11.3
12–22 Sep 2024 CBOS 941385012–12
14–25 Aug 2024 CBOS 939355313–18
24–25 Jul 2024 IBRiS / Onet 1,10042.942.414.60.5
7–9 Jun 2024 United Surveys / DGP, RMF 1,00034.532.532.20.92.0
22–23 Apr 2024 IBRiS / Onet 45.049.05.7–4.0
8–18 Apr 2024 CBOS 1,079414811–7
22–23 Mar 2024 IBRiS / Onet 39.251.49.3–12.2
7–17 Mar 2024 CBOS 1,0894443131
8–18 Feb 2024 CBOS 9944641135
23–24 Feb 2024 IBRiS / Onet 1,10037.646.016.4–8.4
30 Jan –5 Feb 2024 CBOS 994434710–4
Morning Consult 523814

Government

Date(s)
conducted
Polling firm/LinkSample sizeApproveDisapproveNeitherDon't knowNet approvalNotes
9–19 Jan 2025 CBOS 9723143233–12Tusk's government
6–8 Dec 2024 United Surveys / DGP, RMF 1,00034.651.48.9–16.8Tusk's government
8–21 Nov 2024 CBOS 9813440242–6
Oct 2024 United Surveys / DGP, RMF 38.132.527.61.85.6Tusk's government
11–12 Oct 2024 IBRiS / Onet 1,07142.853.43.8–10.6
12–22 Sep 2024 CBOS 9413538234–3
10–20 Sep 2024 IPSOS / More in Common Polska 1,504273934–12Government of KO, TD and The Left
14–25 Aug 2024 CBOS 9393240253–8
10–12 May 2024 United Surveys / WP.pl 1,00050.146.23.73.9Tusk's government
8–18 Apr 2024 CBOS 1,0793537253–2Tusk's government
7–17 Mar 2024 CBOS 1,0893738223–1Tusk's government
8–18 Feb 2024 CBOS 99441342237Tusk's government
12–14 Jan 2024 United Surveys / WP.pl 1,00054.540.35.214.2Tusk's government
12–13 Jan 2024 IBRIS / RZ 1,06756.336.96.819.4Tusk's government

Government actions regarding 2024 floods

Date(s)
conducted
Polling firm/LinkSample sizeQuestion wordingPositivelyNegativelyDon't know/NeutralNet approval
Dec 2024 Opinia24 / RMF FM 1,000How [well] did the government deal with removing the effects of the floods and helping people affected?384913–11
29–30 Sep 2024 Pollster / "19:30" 1,047How do you assess the government's action during the floods?4840128
Sep 2024 UCE Research / Onet Is the government doing a good job of tackling the extreme flooding in southern Poland?44.742.812.51.9
20–21 Sep 2024 United Surveys / WP.pl 1,000How do you assess the government's actions regarding the flood and removing its effects?53.338.28.515.1

Notes

  1. Confederation of the Polish Crown – 3
  2. 1 2 3 4 Turnout: 74.38%
  3. Poland 2050 – 6.7, Polish People's Party – 4.1
  4. hypothetical party of Andrzej Duda – 9.20
  5. Poland 2050 – 8.80, Polish People's Party – 1.67
  6. Sovereign Poland – 4
  7. Poland 2050 – 10.3, Polish People's Party – 7.3
  8. Polish People's Party – 7.8, Poland 2050 – 7.6
  9. Turnout: 74.31%

References

  1. "Sejm of the Republic of Poland". www.sejm.gov.pl. Retrieved 2023-10-25.
  2. "Test".
  3. "Test".
  4. https://niepewnesondaze.blogspot.com/
  5. "Test".
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 "Wybory do Sejmu i Senatu Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej w 2023 r." wybory.gov.pl (in Polish). Retrieved 2023-10-25.