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All 123 seats in the Hamburg Parliament 62 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The next election to the Hamburg Parliament is scheduled for 2 March 2025. [1]
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The next election to the Hamburg Parliament is scheduled for 2 March 2025. [1]
In 2020, the SPD came first, losing four seats but coming ahead of the Greens by a large margin. The Greens almost doubled their share of the vote. The CDU achieved its worst ever result in a Hamburg general election, with 11.2 percent, while the left took 9.1 percent, its best. The AfD just managed to get back in with 5.3 percent of the votes.
The FDP, on the other hand, fell just short of the five percent hurdle with 4.96 percent and missed out on entering parliament for the first time since 2008. However, because of a direct mandate from its top candidate, Anna-Elisabeth von Treuenfels-Frowein, in the Blankenese constituency, the FDP was represented by a non-attached member of parliament. Another member, Sami Musa, joined in January 2022, bringing the number of FDP seats to two, after leaving the SPD in September 2021. The party was reduced to a single seat when von Treuenfels-Frowein defected to the CDU in 2024.
The Second Tschentscher senate was formed as a red–green coalition. [2]
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | SPD | Grüne | CDU | Linke | AfD | FDP | Volt | BSW | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trend Research Hamburg | 5–10 Dec 2024 | 886 | 32 | 20 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| Infratest dimap | 20–25 Nov 2024 | 1,177 | 30 | 21 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 9 |
| Forsa | 24–28 Oct 2024 | 1,017 | 30 | 21 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 4 | – | 4 | 7 | 11 |
| EP election | 9 Jun 2024 | – | 18.7 | 21.2 | 18.4 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 9.7 | 2.5 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 15–25 Apr 2024 | 1,304 | 32 | 21.5 | 18 | 6 | 8.5 | 3.5 | – | 2 | 8.5 | 10.5 |
| Infratest dimap | 1–5 Feb 2024 | 1,164 | 30 | 21 | 20 | 7 | 9 | 5 | – | – | 8 | 9 |
| Trend Research Hamburg | 17–24 Oct 2023 | 1,068 | 31 | 19 | 18 | 10 | 14 | 4 | – | – | 4 | 12 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 24 Sep–2 Oct 2023 | 1,000 | 24.5 | 21.5 | 21 | 8.5 | 13 | 3 | – | – | 8.5 | 3 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 9–16 Sep 2022 | 950 | 32 | 27 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 6 | – | – | 5 | 5 |
| Wahlkreisprognose | 24–29 Jan 2022 | 1,000 | 40 | 26.5 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 7 | – | – | 5.5 | 13.5 |
| 2021 federal election | 26 Sep 2021 | – | 29.7 | 24.9 | 15.4 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 11.4 | 0.5 | – | 6.9 | 4.8 |
| pmg – policy matters | 2–11 Jun 2020 | 1,020 | 37 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 5 | – | – | 4 | 14 |
| 2020 state election | 23 Feb 2020 | – | 39.2 | 24.2 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 1.3 | – | 4.8 | 15.0 |
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