2025 Hamburg state election

2025 Hamburg state election

←  2020 2 March 2025
All 121 seats in the Hamburg Parliament 62 seats needed for a majority
First party Second party Third party   Candidate Peter Tschentscher Katharina Fegebank Dennis Thering Party SPD Greens CDU Last election 54 seats, 39.2% 33 seats, 24.2% 15 seats, 11.2%   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Candidate Cansu Özdemir Dirk Nockemann Katarina Blume Party Left AfD FDP Last election 13 seats, 9.1% 7 seats, 5.3% 1 seat, 4.9%
Government before election Second Tschentscher senate SPD–Green Government after election TBD

The next election to the Hamburg Parliament is scheduled for 2 March 2025. ^[1]

Background

In 2020, the SPD came first, losing four seats but coming ahead of the Greens by a large margin. The Greens almost doubled their share of the vote. The CDU achieved its worst ever result in a Hamburg general election, with 11.2 percent, while the left took 9.1 percent, its best. The AfD just managed to get back in with 5.3 percent of the votes.

The FDP, on the other hand, fell just short of the five percent hurdle with 4.96 percent and missed out on entering parliament for the first time since 2008. However, because of a direct mandate from its top candidate, Anna-Elisabeth von Treuenfels-Frowein, in the Blankenese constituency, the FDP was represented by a non-attached member of parliament. Another member, Sami Musa, joined in January 2022, bringing the number of FDP seats to two, after leaving the SPD in September 2021. The party was reduced to a single seat when von Treuenfels-Frowein defected to the CDU in 2024.

The Second Tschentscher senate was formed as a red–green coalition. ^[2]

Opinion polls

Graphical summary

Party polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	SPD	Grüne	CDU	Linke	AfD	FDP	BSW	Others	Lead
Infratest dimap	17–19 Feb 2025	1,308	32	18	17	10	10	3	3	7 [a]	13
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	10–13 Feb 2025	1,055	32	19	18	9	9	3	3	7 [a]	13
Infratest dimap	29 Jan – 3 Feb 2025	1,164	31	20	18	8	9	3	3	8	11
Trend Research Hamburg	16–20 Jan 2025	890	34	20	16	6	11	3	3	7 [a]	14
Infratest dimap	9–13 Jan 2025	1,159	31	22	17	5	9	4	4	8	9
Trend Research Hamburg	5–10 Dec 2024	886	32	20	17	7	10	4	4	7 [a]	12
Infratest dimap	20–25 Nov 2024	1,177	30	21	19	6	9	3	4	8 [a]	9
Forsa	24–28 Oct 2024	1,017	30	21	21	5	8	4	4	7	11
EP election	9 Jun 2024	865,286	18.7	21.2	18.4	5.1	8.0	7.0	4.9	16.7	2.5
Wahlkreisprognose	15–25 Apr 2024	1,304	32	21.5	18	6	8.5	3.5	2	8.5	10.5
Infratest dimap	1–5 Feb 2024	1,164	30	21	20	7	9	5	–	8	9
Trend Research Hamburg	17–24 Oct 2023	1,068	31	19	18	10	14	4	–	4	12
Wahlkreisprognose	24 Sep–2 Oct 2023	1,000	24.5	21.5	21	8.5	13	3	–	8.5	3
Civey	26 Sep–24 Oct 2022	1,000	29	30	20	5	5	4	–	7.0	1
Wahlkreisprognose	9–16 Sep 2022	950	32	27	15	8	7	6	–	5	5
Wahlkreisprognose	24–29 Jan 2022	1,000	40	26.5	10	6	5	7	–	5.5	13.5
2021 federal election	26 Sep 2021	1,005,544	29.7	24.9	15.4	6.7	5.0	11.4	–	6.9	4.8
pmg – policy matters	2–11 Jun 2020	1,020	37	23	13	10	6	5	–	4	14
2020 state election	23 Feb 2020	–	39.2	24.2	11.2	9.1	5.3	4.9	–	6.1	15.0

First Mayor Polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size				Lead
			Tschentscher SPD	Fegebank Greens	Thering CDU
Infratest dimap	17–19 Feb 2025	1,308	49	16	16	33
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	10–13 Feb 2025	1,055	52	17	12	35
Infratest dimap	27 Jan – 3 Feb 2025	1,164	44	16	15	28
Infratest dimap	9–13 Jan 2025	1,159	44	16	16	28
Infratest dimap	20–25 Nov 2024	1,177	46	15	12	31

Notes

1. Volt at 3%.

References

1. "Hamburg: Bürgerschaftswahl soll am 2. März 2025 stattfinden". NDR.de (in German). 2024-03-23. Retrieved 2024-09-22.
2. "Red-Green agree on coalition agreement". Radio Hamburg (in German). 4 June 2020.