2025 German federal election

2025 German federal election

←  2021 28 September 2025 [a] 2029 →
←  outgoing members
All 630 seats in the Bundestag 316 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Candidate Olaf Scholz Friedrich Merz Robert Habeck [b] Party SPD CDU/CSU Greens Last election 25.7%, 206 seats 24.1%, 197 seats 14.8%, 118 seats   Candidate Christian Lindner Alice Weidel Jan van Aken & Heidi Reichinnek Party FDP AfD Left Last election 11.4%, 91 seats 10.4%, 83 seats 4.9%, 39 seats
A map of Bundestag constituencies to be used at the next election.
Incumbent Government Scholz cabinet SPD–Green–FDP [c]

Federal elections in Germany will be held in 2025 to elect the members of the 21st Bundestag. Originally scheduled for September 2025, the elections are expected to be brought forward to 23 February due to the collapse of the governing coalition, sometimes referred to in Germany as the traffic light coalition, during the 2024 German government crisis. If it is brought forward, the 2025 election will be the fourth snap election in the history of post-war Germany after those in 1972, 1983 and 2005.

Background

Date assignment

The Basic Law and the Federal Election Act provide that federal elections must be held on a Sunday or on a national holiday ^[d] no earlier than 46 and no later than 48 months after the first sitting of a Bundestag, unless the Bundestag is dissolved earlier. The 20th and sitting Bundestag held its first sitting on 26 October 2021. ^[1] Therefore, the next regular election was to take place on a Sunday between 31 August 2025 and 26 October 2025. In August 2024, the Federal Cabinet recommended 28 September 2025 as the date of the election, which was approved by President Frank-Walter Steinmeier. ^[2]

Snap election

See also: 2024 German government crisis

Federal elections can be held earlier if the President dissolves the Bundestag and schedules a snap election. They may only do so under two possible scenarios described by the Basic Law.

1. After a general election or any other vacancy in the chancellor's office, if the Bundestag fails to elect a chancellor with an absolute majority of its members on the 15th day after the first ballot, the president is free to either appoint the candidate who received a plurality of votes as chancellor or to dissolve the Bundestag (in accordance with Article 63, Section 4 of the Basic Law).
2. If the chancellor proposes a motion of confidence which fails, they may ask the president to dissolve the Bundestag. The president is free to grant or to deny the chancellor's request (in accordance with Article 68 of the Basic Law).

In both cases, federal elections would have to take place on a Sunday or national holiday no later than 60 days after the dissolution. ^{[3] [4] [e]}

Following a government crisis, FDP leader Christian Lindner was dismissed from the incumbent government by Olaf Scholz on 6 November 2024, triggering the collapse of the traffic light coalition and leaving the government without a majority. On the same day, Chancellor Scholz announced he would submit a motion of confidence in order to hold a snap election; this was initially planned for January 2025 but was brought forward after pressure from the opposition. ^{[5] [6] [7]}

Scholz submitted a motion of confidence to the Bundestag on 11 December 2024, which was brought to a vote on 16 December. ^[8] The motion required an absolute majority of 367 yes votes to pass, and failed with 207 yes votes, 394 no votes, 116 abstentions, and 16 absent or not voting. ^[4] Of those members who were present and voting, the SPD bloc unanimously voted for confidence, while all opposition blocs except for three members from the AfD voted against confidence. All Green members abstained to ensure the motion would fail without voting against its own coalition. ^[9]

Immediately after the vote's failure, Scholz went to Bellevue Palace to meet with President Steinmeier and recommend a dissolution. The governing parties and the CDU/CSU agreed that 23 February 2025 should be the date for the snap election. President Steinmeier has 21 days to act on the recommendation. As new elections must take place within 60 days of a dissolution, Steinmeier is expected to wait until 27 December to do so in order to honor the agreed-upon date. ^{[10] [11] [12]} Steinmeier has pledged to talk to all party leaders before making a decision, recognizing that he has a constitutional duty to determine whether there is any possible majority in the current Bundestag. ^[13]

Electoral system

Germany has a mixed-member proportional electoral system. Voters have two votes: the first vote is used to directly elect a candidate in their own first-past-the-post constituency, and the second vote is for a party's electoral list. To enter the Bundestag, a party must either get five percent of the nationwide second vote (the Fünf-Prozent-Hürde, five-percent hurdle) or win three constituencies. Both cases result in that party entering the Bundestag, and it receives list seats in addition to any constituency seats it has won such that its bloc is proportional to its nationwide share of the second vote.

2023 reform

Prior to this election, if a party won enough constituencies in a state to exceed its proportional entitlement, it was allowed to keep the so-called overhang seats. The addition of leveling seats for other parties, in order to keep the composition of the Bundestag proportional, led to a large amount of additional seats in 2017 and 2021.

After the 2021 election produced a Bundestag with 736 members – which made it the largest freely elected parliament in the world – renewed debate began over the system that had been in place since the 2013 election. The Bundestag passed a reform law in March 2023 to fix the size of future Bundestags at 630 members. It introduced two changes: The seat distribution would be determined solely through each party's share of the second vote (Zweitstimmendeckung, "second vote coverage") and the elimination of the three-constituency rule (Grundmandatsklausel, "basic mandate clause"). Parties are no longer allowed to keep overhang seats; if a party wins overhang seats in a state, its constituency winners are excluded from the Bundestag in decreasing order of their first vote share. ^[14]

Both the CSU and The Left opposed the law due to the elimination of the basic mandate clause. In the 2021 election, The Left fell short of the five-percent threshold but remained in the Bundestag because it won three constituencies, whereas the CSU barely crossed the threshold with 5.2% of the nationwide second vote while winning 45 constituencies in Bavaria. Both parties appealed to President Steinmeier to veto it; nevertheless, Steinmeier signed the bill after personally determining he believed it was constitutional. ^{[15] [16]} Both party organizations, as well as the government of Bavaria controlled by the CSU, filed formal complaints to the Federal Constitutional Court. ^{[17] [18]}

Hearings were held on 23 and 24 April 2024. On 30 July 2024, the court largely upheld the new electoral law. However, it ruled that a five-percent threshold without any exceptions is unconstitutional; though it recognized the threshold is necessary to prevent fragmentation, it held there must be measures to minimize wasted votes. In order to settle electoral law in sufficient time for this election, the court did not order the Bundestag to modify the law and instead re-introduced the basic mandate clause as an interim measure. The Bundestag is free to change, reduce, or abolish the five-percent hurdle (in conformance with the ruling) for future elections. ^[14]

Political parties and leaders

See also: List of political parties in Germany

The table below lists the parties represented in the 20th Bundestag.

Parties				Leader(s)	Leading candidate(s)	Ideology	Seats		Status
							Last election	Before election
	Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands			Saskia Esken Lars Klingbeil	Olaf Scholz	Social democracy	206 / 736	207 / 733	Governing coalition
	CDU/CSU		Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands	Friedrich Merz	Friedrich Merz [19]	Christian democracy	152 / 736	153 / 733	Opposition
			Christian Social Union in Bavaria Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern	Markus Söder			45 / 736	43 / 733
	Alliance 90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen			Franziska Brantner Felix Banaszak	Robert Habeck [20]	Green politics	118 / 736	117 / 733	Governing coalition
	Free Democratic Party Freie Demokratische Partei			Christian Lindner	Christian Lindner [21]	Liberalism	91 / 736	90 / 733	Opposition
	Alternative for Germany Alternative für Deutschland			Alice Weidel Tino Chrupalla	Alice Weidel [22]	Right-wing populism	83 / 736	76 / 733
	The Left Die Linke			Ines Schwerdtner Jan van Aken	Heidi Reichinnek Jan van Aken [23]	Democratic socialism	39 / 736	28 / 733
	Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht			Sahra Wagenknecht Amira Mohamed Ali	Sahra Wagenknecht	Left-wing populism Cultural conservatism	0 / 736	10 / 733
	Ungrouped		SSW	Christian Dirschauer	Stefan Seidler	Danish minority interests Frisian minority interests	1 / 736	1 / 733
			AfD	Matthias Helferich	—	—	0 / 736	1 / 733
			Independent	—	—	—	0 / 736	7 / 733

Campaign

Nominations and lead candidates

In contrast to the 2021 election, the Kanzlerfrage (chancellor question) for the CDU/CSU bloc was resolved relatively quickly. After good performances for the CDU in September 2024 state elections in Saxony and Thuringia, the two other prospective candidates – North Rhine-Westphalia Minister-President Hendrik Wüst and Bavaria Minister-President and CSU leader Markus Söder – expressed their full support for Friedrich Merz. ^{[24] [25]} Söder was thought to pursue another attempt at the nomination; many CDU rank-and-file, however, saw him in a negative light after a months-long battle with Armin Laschet for the nomination in 2021, followed by personal attacks on Laschet that were seen as undermining the Union campaign, as well as his categorical ruling-out of any coalition with the Greens after this election. ^[26] (The CSU has still only provided the Union bloc's lead candidate twice: in 1980 and 2002.)

At The Left's party convention in October, former lead candidate Gregor Gysi announced an effort called Mission Silberlocke ("Mission Silver Locks") to bolster the party's prospects in the face of infighting and faltering polling. Gysi committed to run for re-election in his constituency of Berlin-Treptow – Köpenick, with former parliamentary group leader Dietmar Bartsch running for a third time in Rostock – Landkreis Rostock II and former Minister-President of Thuringia Bodo Ramelow – the only Left member to have led a state government – contesting a Bundestag seat for the first time since 2005 in Erfurt – Weimar – Weimarer Land II. The goal is to capitalize on the three men's relatively high personal popularities and give The Left the best chance possible to win three constituencies and ensure they remain in the Bundestag, and the effort is nicknamed in humorous reference to the their advanced ages. Party co-leader Ines Schwerdtner is also running to replace the retiring longtime MdB Gesine Lötzsch in the stronghold of Berlin-Lichtenberg and parliamentary co-eader Sören Pellmann is seeking re-election in Leipzig II, which are both seen as likely holds for The Left. Experts also rated Gysi and Ramelow as favorites to win their respective constituencies, which combined would retain the bloc's representation. ^{[27] [28]} Jan van Aken was elected party co-chair alongside Schwerdtner on the same day; however, in November, van Aken and parliamentary co-leader Heidi Reichinnek were selected as The Left's dual lead candidacy for the campaign. ^[29]

In November, various SPD legislators and leading figures – most prominently former party leader Sigmar Gabriel – began publicly calling for defence minister Boris Pistorius to be designated the party's chancellor candidate owing to its and Scholz's poor polling. ^[30] Polling for ARD showed Pistorius as the most favorably viewed national politician: 60% of voters thought he would be a good chancellor, compared to 42% for Merz and 21% for Scholz. ^[31] In a video released on 21 November, Pistorius ended what had become two weeks of public debate by disavowing any interest in running for chancellor and expressing his full support for Scholz. ^[32] Such a protracted and public debate, and party leadership's apparent inability to quickly control or restrain it, was seen as embarrassing and damaging; Jusos president Philipp Türmer directly called out party leaders Saskia Esken and Lars Klingbeil for the "shitshow" at their national congress the following weekend. Nonetheless, Scholz was unanimously renominated as chancellor candidate by the party's executive on 25 November, which will be confirmed at the party's national convention in January. ^[33]

On 17 November, the Greens nominated sitting vice chancellor Robert Habeck as its chancellor candidate; Habeck and foreign minister Annalena Baerbock remain their co-lead candidates, though Baerbock was the chancellor candidate in 2021. ^[34]

On 7 December, the AfD executive nominated Alice Weidel as its chancellor candidate. This is the first time the party has referred to its leader as a chancellor candidates (Kanzlerkandidat/in), a term which is normally reserved for the parties (SPD, Greens and CDU/CSU) which are seen as having a realistic chance of becoming a senior coalition partner and providing a chancellor, instead of the term lead candidate (Spitzenkandidat/in) which is normally used for smaller parties. The AfD has no path to enter government as no other parties are willing to work with it. ^{[35] [36] [37]}

BSW also decided to nominate Sahra Wagenknecht as a chancellor candidate on 16 December. General secretary Christian Heye flatly conceded the party, which was polling between four and eight percent at the time, had no actual chance of providing a chancellor and said that "we are neither imagining things nor are we megalomanical". He blamed the "inflation" of the term's usage in forcing their hand to avoid a perceived disadvantage in the campaign, such as missing out on invitations to televised debates. ^[38]

FDP "D-Day" paper

On 15 November, Die Zeit and Süddeutsche Zeitung independently reported that the FDP had been planning a strategy to break the coalition for several weeks. ^{[39] [40]} They reported on the existence of a detailed working paper which used controversial militaristic language: the 18-page economic report that resulted in Lindner's firing was called "the torpedo", and the upcoming election campaign was described as "open battle". Most contentious was that the day of the report's publication was referred to as "D-Day" – which in German is used exclusively in reference to the Allied invasion of Normandy and has a violent connotation, whereas the equivalent generic term for "decision day" would be Tag X. The use of the language of war to refer to the political process led to heavy criticism. ^{[41] [42]}

This also contradicted Lindner's assertion that the end of the government was a "calculated break" on the part of Scholz. ^[41] Criticism came from the SPD upon the revelation that their coalition partner had apparently not been acting in good faith for weeks: parliamentary leader Rolf Mützenich described himself as "feeling deceived and disappointed" and "horrified" by the controversial language. ^[43] In an 18 November interview with RTL and n-tv, FDP general secretary Bijan Djir-Sarai flatly denied the use of the term "D-Day" and stated the party's leadership was not aware of the paper. Lindner did not deny the paper's existence but simply replied to reporters "We are in a campaign. Where is the news here?" ^[43]

Media speculation continued as to what degree the FDP was responsible for the coalition's end. On the morning of 28 November, the online news portal Table.Media published excerpts of an 8-page document alleged to be the working paper; it was indeed titled "D-Day Scenarios and Actions" and laid out a strategy as detailed as the original reporting surmised, including strategies to undermine the coalition, communication tactics, and pre-written quotations for Lindner. SZ confronted party leaders with the excerpts and gave them a 1:30 p.m. deadline to respond to questions. The party did not, but instead officially released the full paper at 6 p.m. with a statement from Djir-Sarai claiming it was "to prevent false impressions...of the paper" by the media. ^[44]

According to the party, the paper was first prepared by Federal Managing Director Carsten Reymann on 24 October "to deal with the questions surrounding how the exit of the FDP from the government could be communicated", and the "purely technical paper" was not presented to legislators or members of the government. ^[45] Djir-Sarai and Reymann resigned the next day to take responsibility for the paper's contents. SPD acting general secretary Matthias Miersch described Djir-Sarai as "a transparent scapegoat" to protect Lindner and called it "unimaginable" that the party leader would not know of the paper's existence. ^[46] In a written statement released that evening, Lindner again denied any knowledge of the paper and stated he would not have approved of it, and that it was only circulated among internal party staffers and not any elected officials. ^[47]

Marco Buschmann, who served as justice minister until the traffic light coalition's collapse, took over as the FDP's general secretary replacing Christian Linder. ^[48]

Debates

Immediately after the confidence vote's failure, ARD and ZDF announced they would jointly hold a debate between Scholz and Merz on 9 February. Unlike the 2021 campaign, where there was a Triell between the Union, SPD and Green chancellor candidates, Habeck was instead invited by the public broadcasters to a separate face-off with Weidel on another date. This stoked complaints from both of their parties who made claims of bias. ^[49] Habeck's campaign spokesperson announced he would decline the invitation and accused ARD and ZDF of "intervening" in the campaign in favor of the two established parties. Weidel's campaign threatened legal action over her exclusion from a Triell. ^[50]

On 18 December, Table.Media reported that Scholz refused to participate in the ARD/ZDF debate unless it was solely against Merz, and the public broadcasters acquiesced. Green chief whip Irene Mihalic demanded an explanation from ARD, which denied the report. Lindner and Wagenknecht both offered to replace Habeck. ^{[51] [52]}

However, ARD and ZDF also announced their usual "closing roundtable" with the leaders of all main parties on 20 February. ^[53]

RTL also announced it would broadcast a debate between Merz and Scholz on the Sunday before the proposed election date. The channel ultimately plans three one-on-one debates that evening with six main parties (all except The Left) participating; negotiations with the other parties are ongoing. When asked about the unusual format, a spokesperson for the channel stated "we are convinced that one debate with the current five chancellor candidates would be nothing more than a talk show". ^[53]

2025 German federal election debates
Date	Broadcasters	P Present   S Surrogate   I Invited   NI Not invited
		Union	SPD	Greens	AfD	FDP	Left	CSU	BSW
TBD 2025 [49]	ARD, ZDF	NI	NI	I Habeck	I Weidel	NI	NI	NI	NI
9 February 2025 [54]	ARD, ZDF	I Merz	I Scholz	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI
13 February 2025 (town hall format) [52]	ZDF	I Merz	I Scholz	I Habeck	I Weidel	NI	NI	NI	NI
TBD February 2025 [52]	ZDF	NI	NI	NI	NI	I Lindner	I TBD	I Söder	I Wagenknecht
16 February 2025 [54]	RTL, n-tv	I Merz	I Scholz	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI
20 February 2025 [53]	ARD, ZDF	I Merz	I Scholz	I Habeck	I Weidel	I Lindner	I TBD	I Söder	I Wagenknecht

Members of Parliament standing down

Name	Party		State	Constituency	Member since	Ref.
Andreas Rimkus		SPD	North Rhine-Westphalia	Düsseldorf II	2013	[55]
Peter Ramsauer		CSU	Bavaria	Traunstein	1990	[56]
Renate Künast		Green	Berlin	N/A	2002	[57]
Niels Annen		SPD	Hamburg	Hamburg-Eimsbüttel	2005	[58]
Sarah Ryglewski		SPD	Bremen	N/A	2017	[59]
Annette Widmann-Mauz		CDU	Baden-Württemberg	Tübingen	1998	[60]
Yvonne Magwas		CDU	Saxony	N/A	2013	[61]
Nadine Schön		CDU	Saarland	St. Wendel	2009	[62]
Michelle Müntefering		SPD	North Rhine-Westphalia	Herne – Bochum II	2013	[63]
Markus Grübel		CDU	Baden-Württemberg	N/A	2002	[64]
Andreas Scheuer		CSU	Bavaria	Passau	2002	[65]
Kai Gehring		Green	North Rhine-Westphalia	N/A	2005	[66]
Sönke Rix		SPD	Schleswig-Holstein	N/A	2005	[67]
Manuela Rottmann		Green	Bavaria	N/A	2017	[68]
Volkmar Klein		CDU	North Rhine-Westphalia	Siegen-Wittgenstein	2009	[69]
Paul Lehrieder		CSU	Bavaria	Würzburg	2005	[70]
Christoph Hoffmann		CDU	Baden-Württemberg	N/A	2017	[71]
Katrin Budde		SPD	Saxony-Anhalt	N/A	2017	[72]
Dietmar Nietan		SPD	North Rhine-Westphalia	N/A	2005	[73]
Michael Gerdes		SPD	North Rhine-Westphalia	N/A	2009	[74]
Tabea Rößner		Green	Rhineland-Palatinate	N/A	2009	[75]
Kordula Schulz-Asche		Green	Hesse	N/A	2017	[70]
Erwin Rüddel		CDU	Rhineland-Palatinate	N/A	2009	[76]
Heike Baehrens		SPD	Baden-Württemberg	N/A	2013	[77]
Michael Roth		SPD	Hesse	Werra-Meißner – Hersfeld-Rotenburg	1998	[78]
Thomas Hitschler		SPD	Rhineland-Palatinate	Südpfalz	2013	[79]
Astrid Damerow		CDU	Schleswig-Holstein	N/A	2017	[80]
Tobias Lindner		Green	Rhineland-Palatinate	N/A	2011	[81]
Martin Rosemann		SPD	Baden-Württemberg	N/A	2013	[82]
Sven-Christian Kindler		Green	Lower Saxony	N/A	2017	[83]
Oliver Grundmann		CDU	Lower Saxony	N/A	2013	[84]
Christine Aschenberg-Dugnus		FDP	Schleswig-Holstein	N/A	2017	[70]
Maria Klein-Schmeink		Green	North Rhine-Westphalia	N/A	2017	[85]
Dagmar Andres		SPD	North Rhine-Westphalia	Euskirchen – Rhein-Erft-Kreis II	2021	[86]
Michael Grosse-Brömer		CDU	Lower Saxony	Harburg	2002	[87]
Hermann Gröhe		CDU	North Rhine-Westphalia	Neuss I	1994	[88]
Udo Schiefner		SPD	North Rhine-Westphalia	N/A	2013	[89]
Max Straubinger		CSU	Bavaria	N/A	1994	[90]
Bernd Westphal		SPD	Lower Saxony	N/A	2013	[91]
Beate Walter-Rosenheimer		Green	Bavaria	N/A	2012	[92]
Marco Wanderwitz		CDU	Saxony	N/A	2002	[93]
Albrecht Glaser		AfD	Hesse	N/A	2017	[94]
Gesine Lötzsch		Left	Berlin	Berlin-Lichtenberg	2002	[95]

Opinion polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2025 German federal election

Local regression of polls conducted

The following shows the latest opinion poll from each polling firm.

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Abs.	SPD	Union	Grüne	FDP	AfD	Linke	FW	BSW	Others	Lead
Wahlkreisprognose	14–16 Dec 2024	1,500		20	29	15	4.5	17	2.5	3	5	4	9
INSA	13–16 Dec 2024	2,002	–	16.5	31.5	11.5	5	19.5	2.5	–	8	5.5	12
Forsa	10–16 Dec 2024	2,501	–	17	30	13	4	19	3	–	4	10	11
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	3–5 Dec 2024	1,433	17	15	33	14	4	17	3	–	5	9	16
Infratest dimap	2–4 Dec 2024	1,307	–	16	32	14	4	18	3	–	5	8	14
YouGov	29 Nov – 3 Dec 2024	1,879	–	18	30	13	4	19	3	1	7	6	11
GMS	27 Nov – 2 Dec 2024	1,005	–	15	34	13	4	17	3	2	6	6	17
Ipsos	29 Nov – 1 Dec 2024	1,000	–	16	32	13	3	18	3	3	7	5	14
Verian	20–26 Nov 2024	1,432	–	15	32	13	4	18	3	–	6	9	14
Allensbach	2–14 Nov 2024	1,049	–	15	37	10	4	17	–	–	7.5	9.5	20
2021 federal election	26 Sep 2021	–	–	25.7	24.2	14.7	11.4	10.4	4.9	2.4	–	6.3	1.6

Notes

1. Following the revocation of confidence on 16 December 2024, elections are expected to be moved to 23 February 2025 pending a dissolution of the Bundestag no earlier than 25 December.
2. Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck are co-lead candidates, while Habeck is candidate for Chancellor as "Candidate for the people in Germany" (German: Kandidat für die Menschen in Deutschland).
3. Only SPD and Grüne remained in government following Christian Lindner's dismissal.
4. In Germany, with the exception of the German Unity Day, all holidays are determined on the state level, and because of that, they do not necessarily apply for all German states. Currently, legal holidays in all states are New Year's Day, Good Friday, Easter Monday, Labour Day, Ascension Day, Whit Monday, German Unity Day, First Christmas Day, and Second Christmas Day (Boxing Day).
5. Possibility 1 has not happened since 1949; possibility 2 has been used a total of four times (in 1972, 1982, 2005, and this election).

References

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