Opinion polling for the 2025 German federal election

In the run-up to the 2025 German federal election, which took place as a snap election on 23 February 2025, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions in Germany. Results of such polls are displayed below.

Electoral threshold of 5%

In the runup to the 2025 snap election, four of the eight main parties represented in the Bundestag were at risk of failing to pass the 5% electoral threshold, thus placing the actual outcome in significant uncertainty. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) led by challenger Friedrich Merz, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) led by challenger Alice Weidel, and the Alliance 90/The Greens led by candidate Robert Habeck were all expected to obtain a voting volume that is significantly higher than the qualifying 5% threshold.

Seats in the Bundestag are allocated to party lists that either pass the "five percent hurdle" of federally valid second votes, or win at least three constituencies. In the 2021 German federal election, this granted Die Linke (The Left) full proportional representation as it won three constituencies despite receiving 4.9% of second-ballot votes. In 2022, this three-constituency rule was abolished, but was reinstated by the Federal Constitutional Court. In addition to Die Linke, this also benefits the Christian Social Union (CSU) which competes only in Bavaria and, in the 2021 German federal elections, only passed the threshold with 5.2% of second-ballot votes nationwide but won 45 out of 46 constituencies in Bavaria. As the CDU/CSU "Union" don't compete against each other and form one faction in the parliament, both "sister parties" are combined in most polls, but some show separate numbers.

Polling around 5% were the Free Democratic Party (FDP) that was part of the "Traffic Light Coalition" whose collapse led to the snap election, Die Linke, and the new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) which split off from The Left in 2023.

Also shown in the polls are the Free Voters (FW) which are present in three state parliaments (Bavaria, Rhineland-Palatinate and Saxony) and one state government coalition (Bavaria). Only three other parties have managed to get approved in all states, and several others run in selected states. They are all summed up as "others".

Reliability of pollsters

The poll aggregator Europe Elects provides a list of past pollster accuracy and conflict of interest on its website. The organization includes Allensbach, Forsa, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, GMS, Infratest dimap, INSA, Ipsos, Verian, YouGov, pollytix, Trend research, and pmg - policy matters in its databases and highlights their reliability and transparency. All of them are part of professional pollster associations. Civey is excluded and their lack of methodological rigour referenced. Below-listed Wahlkreisprognose and American-based Democracy Institute are excluded from Europe Elects's coverage. The poll aggregator points out that they have no membership in a professional association. ^[1]

Poll results

Graphical summary

Opinion polling for the 2025 German federal election using Local regression (LOESS) of polls conducted. Data up to 19 February 2025

2025

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Abs.	SPD	Union	Grüne	FDP	AfD	Linke	FW	BSW	Others	Lead
2025 federal election	23 Feb 2025	–	17.5	16.4	28.5	11.6	4.3	20.8	8.8	1.5	5.0 [a]	3.1	7.7
INSA [2]	21–22 Feb2025	2,005	–	15	29.5	12.5	4.5	21	7.5	–	5	5	8.5
Wahlkreisprognose [3]	20–21 Feb2025	1,536	–	14.5	29.5	12	4.5	20.5	8	2	4.5	4.5	9
Ipsos [4]	19–21 Feb2025	1,000	–	16	30	12	4.5	21	7	–	4.5	5	9
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	19–20 Feb2025	1,349	–	16	28	14	4	21	8	–	4.5	4	7
Forsa [6]	17–20 Feb2025	2,002	–	15	29	13	5	21	8	–	3	6	8
YouGov [7]	17–20 Feb2025	1,681	–	16	29	13	4	20	8	–	5	5	9
Allensbach [8]	9–20 Feb2025	1,064	–	14.5	32	12	4.5	20	7.5	–	4.5	6	12
INSA [2]	18–19 Feb2025	2,086	–	15	30	13	4	21	7	–	5	5	9
GMS [9]	16–19 Feb2025	1,016	–	15	31	13	4	20	6	2	4	5	11
Ipsos [4]	12–19 Feb2025	2,000	–	15	31	13	4.5	20	7	–	4.5	5	11
YouGov (MRP) [10]	7–19 Feb2025	9,281	–	15.6	29.9	12.7	4.5	19.7	7.5	–	4.6	5.6	10.2
Wahlkreisprognose [11]	17–18 Feb2025	1,000	–	14.5	30	12	4	20	7	2	5	5.5	10
Cluster 17 [12]	16–18 Feb2025	1,457	–	15	30	13	4	21	7	–	4	5	9
Forsa [6]	11–17 Feb2025	2,501	–	16	30	13	5	20	7	–	4	5	10
YouGov [7]	14–17 Feb2025	2,131	–	17	27	12	4	20	9	–	5	5	7
INSA [2]	14–17 Feb2025	2,010	–	15	30	13	4.5	22	6.5	–	5	4	8
INSA [2]	10–14 Feb2025	1,205	–	15	30	13	4	21	6	–	5	6	9
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	11–13 Feb2025	1,348	14	16	30	14	4	20	7	–	4	5	10
Wahlkreisprognose [13]	11–13 Feb2025	1,700	–	12.5	32	12.5	4	20	6	1.5	4.5	7	12
Infratest dimap [14]	10–12 Feb2025	1,579	–	14	32	14	4	21	6	–	4.5	4.5	11
Allensbach [8]	31 Jan–12 Feb2025	1,021	–	15	32	13	5	20	6	–	4	6	12
Pollytix [15]	11–12 Feb2025	1,501	–	17	29	14	4	19	6	–	5	6	10
YouGov [7]	7–10 Feb2025	2,083	–	16	29	12	4	21	6	–	5	6	8
INSA [2]	7–10 Feb2025	2,006	–	15.5	30	13	4	22	6	–	5.5	4	8
Forsa [6]	4–10 Feb2025	2,502	23	16	29	14	4	20	6	–	4	7	9
GMS [9]	4–7 Feb2025	1,011	–	15	30	14	4	21	5	2	4	5	9
INSA [2]	3–7 Feb2025	1,204	–	16	29	12	4	21	5	–	6	7	8
Pollytix [15]	5–6 Feb2025	1,529	–	17	30	12	4	20	6	–	5	6	10
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	4–6 Feb2025	1,341	20	15	30	15	4	20	6	–	4	6	10
Infratest dimap [14]	3–5 Feb2025	1,302	–	15	31	14	4	21	5	–	4	6	10
YouGov (MRP) [16]	17 Jan–5 Feb2025	9,322	–	15.3	29.0	13.3	4.1	19.9	5.2	–	5.4	7.9	9.1
YouGov [7]	31 Jan–4 Feb2025	2,181	–	18	29	12	4	22	6	–	6	4	7
Wahlkreisprognose [17]	1–3 Feb2025	1,900	–	16.5	28	12	4.5	19.5	5	2.5	5.5	6.5	8.5
INSA [2]	31 Jan–3 Feb2025	2,004	–	16	30	13	4.5	22	5	–	5.5	4	8
INSA [2]	30–31 Jan2025	1,203	–	17	30	12	4	22	4	–	6	5	8
Ipsos [4]	30–31 Jan2025	1,000	–	16	29	13	4	21	4	–	5	8	8
INSA [18]	30 Jan2025	1,001	–	17	29	13	4	22	4	–	6	5	7
Forsa [6]	28 Jan–3 Feb2025	2,503	–	16	28	15	4	20	5	–	4	8	8
Democracy Institute [19]	28–30 Jan2025	2,430	–	15	27	13	5	25	5	–	6	4	2
Infratest dimap [14]	27–29 Jan2025	1,336	–	15	30	15	4	20	5	–	4	7	10
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	27–29 Jan2025	1,428	17	15	29	14	4	21	5	–	4	8	8
Verian [20]	22–28 Jan2025	1,461	–	15	30	14	4	20	4	–	5	8	10
YouGov [7]	24–27 Jan2025	1,781	–	15	29	13	3	23	5	–	6	5	6
INSA [2]	24–27 Jan2025	2,006	–	15.5	30	12.5	4.5	22	4.5	–	6	5	8
Forsa [6]	21–27 Jan2025	2,504	–	16	30	14	4	20	4	–	3	9	10
INSA [2]	20–24 Jan2025	1,203	–	16	30	12	4	21	4	–	7	6	9
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	21–23 Jan2025	1,345	18	15	30	14	4	21	5	–	3	8	9
Wahlkreisprognose [21]	21–23 Jan2025	1,500	–	17	28.5	14	3.5	21.5	3.5	1.5	4.5	6	7
YouGov [7]	17–20 Jan2025	1,858	–	19	28	15	4	19	4	–	6	6	9
INSA [2]	17–20 Jan2025	2,008	–	16	29	13	5	21.5	4	–	7	4.5	7.5
Forsa [6]	14–20 Jan2025	2,502	–	16	31	13	4	19	3	–	4	10	12
Allensbach [8]	7–19 Jan2025	1,015	–	17	34	13.5	4	20	–	–	5	6.5	14
Ipsos [4]	16–18 Jan2025	1,000	–	16	30	14	4	19	3	2	6	6	11
INSA [2]	13–17 Jan2025	1,206	–	16	29	13	5	21	4	–	7	5	8
Wahlkreisprognose [22]	13–16 Jan2025	2,000	–	16.5	29	15	4	21	2.5	2	4	6	8
YouGov (MRP) [23]	3 Dec – 15 Jan 2025	10,411	–	15.6	29.8	13.6	4.5	19.7	2.9	–	6.0	7.8	10.1
YouGov [7]	10–14 Jan2025	1,771	–	18	30	14	4	21	4	–	6	5	9
INSA [2]	10–13 Jan2025	2,005	–	15	31	13	4	22	3.5	–	6.5	5	9
Forsa [6]	7–13 Jan2025	2,504	28	16	31	13	4	20	3	–	4	9	11
INSA [2]	6–10 Jan2025	1,205	–	16	30	13	4	22	3	–	6	6	8
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	7–9 Jan2025	1,433	18	14	30	15	4	21	4	–	4	8	9
Infratest dimap [14]	6–8 Jan2025	1,323	–	15	31	14	4	20	4	–	5	7	11
YouGov [7]	3–6 Jan2025	1,908	–	16	29	14	5	21	3	–	6	6	8
INSA [2]	3–6 Jan2025	2,001	–	15.5	31	13.5	4	21.5	3	–	6.5	5	9.5
Forsa [6]	2–6 Jan2025	1,501	27	17	32	12	3	19	3	–	4	10	13
Ipsos [4]	2–4 Jan2025	1,000	–	16	30	13	4	19	3	2	7	6	11
INSA [2]	30 Dec–3 Jan2025	1,201	–	16	31	13	4	20	3	–	7	6	11
GMS [9]	27 Dec–2 Jan2025	1,010	–	16	33	13	4	18	3	2	4	7	15
2021 federal election	26 Sep2021	–	23.4	25.7	24.2	14.7	11.4	10.4	4.9	2.4	–	6.3	1.5

2024

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Abs.	SPD	Union	Grüne	FDP	AfD	Linke	FW	BSW	Others	Lead
INSA [2]	27–30 Dec2024	2,004	–	16.5	31	12	3.5	20.5	4	–	7	5.5	10.5
Wahlkreisprognose	21–28 Dec2024	2,000	–	18	28	15.5	4	18	2.5	2	6	6	10
INSA [2]	23–27 Dec2024	1,002	–	17	31	12	4	20	3	–	7	6	11
INSA [2]	20–23 Dec2024	2,010	–	16	31	12.5	5	19.5	3	–	8	5	11.5
Forsa [6]	17–20 Dec2024	2,008	25	16	31	13	3	19	4	–	4	10	12
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	17–19 Dec2024	1,362	16	15	31	14	3	19	4	–	5	9	12
INSA [2]	16–19 Dec2024	1,205	–	16	32	12	5	20	3	–	8	4	12
Infratest dimap [14]	16–18 Dec2024	1,336	–	14	33	14	3	19	3	–	5	9	14
Verian [20]	11–17 Dec2024	1,452	–	17	31	14	4	18	3	–	5	8	13
Wahlkreisprognose [24]	14–16 Dec2024	1,500	–	20	29	15	4.5	17	2.5	3	5	4	9
INSA [2]	13–16 Dec2024	2,002	–	16.5	31.5	11.5	5	19.5	2.5	–	8	5.5	12
Forsa [6]	10–16 Dec2024	2,501	23	17	30	13	4	19	3	–	4	10	11
INSA [2]	9–13 Dec2024	1,203	–	17	31	11	5	20	3	–	8	5	11
Allensbach [8]	30 Nov–12 Dec2024	1,006	–	16	36	12	4	18	–	–	6	8	18
INSA [2]	6–9 Dec2024	2,004	–	17	31.5	11.5	4.5	19.5	3	–	8	5	12
Forsa [6]	3–9 Dec2024	2,501	22	17	31	13	4	18	3	–	4	10	13
INSA [2]	2–6 Dec2024	1,202	–	16	32	12	4	19	4	–	8	5	13
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	3–5 Dec2024	1,433	17	15	33	14	4	17	3	–	5	9	16
Wahlkreisprognose	2–5 Dec2024	2,000	–	18.5	31	11.5	3	20.5	3	3	3.5	6	10.5
Infratest dimap [14]	2–4 Dec2024	1,307	–	16	32	14	4	18	3	–	5	8	14
YouGov [7]	29 Nov–3 Dec2024	1,879	–	18	30	13	4	19	3	1	7	6	11
INSA [2]	29 Nov–2 Dec2024	2,003	–	16	31.5	13	4.5	18.5	3.5	–	7.5	5.5	13
GMS	27 Nov–2 Dec2024	1,005	–	15	34	13	4	17	3	2	6	6	17
Forsa [6]	26 Nov–2 Dec2024	2,502	–	16	32	12	3	18	4	–	4	11	14
Ipsos	29 Nov–1 Dec2024	1,000	–	16	32	13	3	18	3	3	7	5	14
INSA [2]	25–29 Nov2024	1,201	–	15	32	13	5	18	3	–	8	6	14
Verian [20]	20–26 Nov2024	1,432	–	15	32	13	4	18	3	–	6	9	14
INSA [2]	22–25 Nov2024	2,003	–	15	32.5	11	4.5	19.5	3.5	–	7.5	6.5	13
Forsa [6]	19–25 Nov2024	2,500	–	15	32	12	4	18	4	–	4	11	14
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	19–21 Nov2024	1,399	15	16	32	12	3	18	4	–	5	10	14
INSA [2]	18–21 Nov2024	1,203	–	14	32	11	5	19	4	–	7	8	13
Infratest dimap [14]	18–20 Nov2024	1,318	–	14	33	14	4	19	3	–	6	7	14
Wahlkreisprognose	14–20 Nov2024	2,000	–	15	34	11	4	18.5	2.5	2.5	5	7.5	15.5
INSA [2]	15–18 Nov2024	2,008	–	16	32	11	4.5	19	3.5	–	7.5	6.5	13
Forsa [6]	12–18 Nov2024	2,500	–	15	33	11	4	18	4	–	4	11	15
INSA [2]	11–15 Nov2024	1,204	–	16	32	10	4	19	4	–	8	7	13
Allensbach [8]	2–14 Nov2024	1,049	–	15	37	10	4	17	–	–	7.5	9.5	20
YouGov [7]	8–12 Nov2024	1,805	–	15	33	12	5	19	3	1	7	6	14
INSA [2]	8–11 Nov2024	3,009	–	15.5	32.5	11.5	5	19.5	3.5	–	7	5.5	13
Forsa [6]	5–11 Nov2024	2,501	–	16	33	11	4	17	3	–	5	11	16
INSA [2]	7–8 Nov2024	1,065	–	15	32	10	4	19	4	–	7	9	13
Infratest dimap [14]	7 Nov2024	1,065	–	16	34	12	5	18	–	–	6	9	16
Forsa [6]	7 Nov2024	1,181	–	17	32	11	3	17	3	–	6	11	15
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	5–7 Nov2024	1,231	15	16	33	12	3	18	4	–	6	8	15
INSA [2]	1–4 Nov2024	2,005	–	15.5	32	10.5	4.5	18	3.5	–	8	8	14
Forsa [6]	29 Oct–4 Nov2024	2,500	–	16	33	10	3	16	3	–	6	13	17
Ipsos	1–2 Nov2024	1,000	–	15	32	11	5	18	3	3	8	5	14
INSA [2]	28 Oct–1 Nov2024	1,202	–	16	32	10	4	18	4	–	8	8	14
Infratest dimap [14]	28–30 Oct2024	1,333	–	16	34	11	4	17	–	–	6	12	17
Verian [20]	23–29 Oct2024	1,443	–	16	32	11	3	17	3	–	8	10	15
INSA [2]	25–28 Oct2024	2,008	–	15	31	11	4	19	2.5	–	9	8.5	12
Forsa [6]	22–28 Oct2024	2,503	23	16	32	9	4	17	3	–	7	12	15
INSA [2]	21–25 Oct2024	1,204	–	15	30	11	4	19	3	–	9	9	11
INSA [2]	18–21 Oct2024	2,006	–	16.5	30.5	10	4	19	2.5	–	9	8.5	11.5
Forsa [6]	15–21 Oct2024	2,500	–	16	31	11	3	17	3	–	7	12	14
INSA [2]	14–18 Oct2024	1,201	–	16	31	10	4	19	3	–	9	8	12
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	15–17 Oct2024	1,249	12	16	31	11	3	18	4	–	8	9	13
INSA [2]	11–14 Oct2024	2,002	–	16	31.5	10	4	18.5	3.5	–	9	7.5	13
Forsa [6]	8–14 Oct2024	2,501	–	16	31	10	4	17	3	–	7	12	14
INSA [2]	7–11 Oct2024	1,202	–	16	31	11	4	19	3	–	9	7	12
Allensbach [8]	28 Sep–11 Oct2024	1,041	–	16	36	10.5	4.5	16	–	–	9	9	20
Infratest dimap [14]	7–9 Oct2024	1,321	–	16	31	13	3	17	3	3	8	6	14
YouGov [7]	4–8 Oct2024	1,773	–	16	32	11	5	18	3	1	8	6	14
INSA [2]	4–7 Oct2024	2,010	–	16	31.5	10.5	4	20	2.5	–	8	7.5	11.5
Forsa [6]	1–7 Oct2024	2,001	–	17	31	11	3	17	3	–	6	12	14
Ipsos	2–4 Oct2024	1,000	–	15	31	11	4	18	3	3	8	7	13
INSA [2]	30 Sep–4 Oct2024	1,237	–	16	31	11	4	20	3	–	8	7	11
Verian [20]	25 Sep–1 Oct2024	1,452	–	16	31	11	4	17	3	3	7	8	14
INSA [2]	27–30 Sep2024	2,002	–	15	31.5	11	4	19	2.5	–	9.5	7.5	12.5
Forsa [6]	24–30 Sep2024	2,501	–	17	31	10	4	17	3	–	6	12	14
INSA [2]	23–27 Sep2024	1,203	–	15	32	11	4	19	3	–	10	6	13
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	24–26 Sep2024	1,348	16	16	31	12	4	17	4	–	8	8	14
INSA [2]	20–23 Sep2024	2,002	–	15.5	32	9.5	3.5	20	2.5	–	10	7	12
Forsa [6]	17–23 Sep2024	2,500	21	15	32	11	4	17	–	–	7	14	15
INSA [2]	16–19 Sep2024	1,202	–	15	32	10	4	20	2	–	10	7	12
INSA [2]	13–16 Sep2024	2,008	–	14	33	10	4.5	19.5	2.5	–	10	6.5	13.5
GMS	11–16 Sep2024	1,006	–	14	34	11	4	18	2	3	7	7	16
Forsa [6]	10–16 Sep2024	2,501	–	15	31	11	4	17	3	–	6	13	14
INSA [2]	9–13 Sep2024	1,206	–	14	33	10	4	19	3	–	10	7	14
Allensbach [8]	29 Aug–11 Sep2024	1,017	–	16	35.5	10	4	17	–	–	9	8.5	18.5
YouGov [7]	6–10 Sep2024	1,752	–	14	32	13	4	18	4	1	8	6	14
INSA [2]	6–9 Sep2024	2,010	–	14	32.5	10	4	19.5	2.5	–	10	7.5	13
Forsa [6]	3–9 Sep2024	2,500	–	14	33	11	3	17	3	–	7	12	16
Ipsos	6–7 Sep2024	1,000	–	13	32	11	4	18	3	2	9	8	14
INSA [2]	2–6 Sep2024	1,202	–	15	31	10	4	19	3	–	10	8	12
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	3–5 Sep2024	1,328	14	15	33	11	4	17	4	–	7	9	16
Infratest dimap [14]	3–4 Sep2024	1,309	–	15	33	11	4	17	3	–	8	9	16
Verian [20]	28 Aug–3 Sep2024	1,427	–	15	31	12	4	17	3	–	8	10	14
INSA [2]	30 Aug–2 Sep2024	2,002	–	15	31.5	10.5	4.5	19	2.5	–	9.5	7.5	12.5
Forsa [6]	27 Aug–2 Sep2024	2,508	–	14	32	11	5	17	3	–	7	11	15
INSA [2]	26–30 Aug2024	1,202	–	16	31	11	4	19	3	–	9	7	12
INSA [2]	23–26 Aug2024	2,004	–	15	31.5	11.5	5.5	18.5	3	–	9	6	13
Forsa [6]	20–26 Aug2024	2,501	–	15	31	11	5	17	3	–	7	11	14
INSA [2]	19–23 Aug2024	1,202	–	16	31	11	5	18	3	–	9	7	13
INSA [2]	16–19 Aug2024	2,006	–	15.5	30.5	10.5	5	19	3	–	9.5	7	11.5
Forsa [6]	13–19 Aug2024	2,503	–	15	31	11	5	17	3	–	7	11	14
INSA [2]	12–16 Aug2024	1,203	–	16	30	11	5	19	3	–	9	7	11
Allensbach [8]	3–15 Aug2024	1,051	–	16	34	11.5	5	16	3	–	7	7.5	18
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	12–14 Aug2024	1,334	14	14	32	13	4	16	3	–	8	10	16
YouGov [7]	9–13 Aug2024	1,998	–	15	31	12	5	19	3	1	8	6	12
INSA [2]	9–12 Aug2024	2,008	–	15	30.5	10.5	5	18	3	–	9.5	8.5	12.5
Forsa [6]	6–12 Aug2024	2,502	22	15	30	11	5	17	3	–	7	12	13
GMS	6–12 Aug2024	1,006	–	14	32	12	5	17	3	2	8	7	15
INSA [2]	5–9 Aug2024	1,203	–	16	31	10	5	18	3	–	9	8	13
Infratest dimap [14]	5–7 Aug2024	1,311	–	15	32	12	5	16	–	–	9	11	16
Verian [20]	31 Jul–6 Aug2024	1,449	–	16	31	13	5	16	3	–	7	9	15
INSA [2]	2–5 Aug2024	2,002	–	15	30.5	10.5	5	17	3	–	9.5	9.5	13.5
Forsa [6]	30 Jul–5 Aug2024	2,500	20	15	30	11	5	17	3	3	7	9	13
Ipsos	2–4 Aug2024	1,000	–	14	30	13	5	16	3	2	8	9	14
INSA [2]	29 Jul–2 Aug2024	1,199	–	15	31	10	5	18	3	–	9	9	13
INSA [2]	26–29 Jul2024	2,006	–	15	30	10	5	18	3.5	–	9.5	9	12
Forsa [6]	23–29 Jul2024	2,501	21	15	30	11	4	17	3	–	7	13	13
INSA [2]	22–26 Jul2024	1,203	–	15	30	11	5	18	3	–	10	8	12
INSA [2]	19–22 Jul2024	2,010	–	15	31	10.5	5	17	3.5	–	9	9	14
Forsa [6]	16–22 Jul2024	2,504	18	14	31	11	5	17	4	–	7	11	14
INSA [2]	15–19 Jul2024	1,207	–	15	30	11	5	17	3	–	9	10	13
Allensbach [8]	5–19 Jul2024	1,003	–	16.5	32	11.5	6	17	–	–	8	9	15
INSA [2]	12–15 Jul2024	2,500	–	15	31	11.5	5	18	3	–	8.5	8	13
Forsa [6]	9–15 Jul2024	2,503	18	14	32	11	5	16	3	–	7	12	16
INSA [2]	8–12 Jul2024	1,449	–	15	30	12	5	18	2	–	9	9	12
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	9–11 Jul2024	1,341	15	14	32	13	4	17	3	–	7	10	15
Verian [20]	3–9 Jul2024	1,486	–	15	31	13	5	16	3	–	7	10	15
INSA [2]	5–8 Jul2024	2,007	–	15	30.5	11	5.5	17.5	3	1.5	8.5	7.5	13
Forsa [6]	2–8 Jul2024	2,504	19	14	30	11	5	17	–	–	8	15	13
Ipsos	5–7 Jul2024	1,000	–	14	30	12	5	16	3	2	8	10	14
INSA [2]	1–5 Jul2024	1,204	–	15	30	11	5	18	2	–	9	10	12
Infratest dimap [14]	1–3 Jul2024	1,294	–	14	31	13	5	17	3	–	8	9	14
YouGov [7]	28 Jun–3 Jul2024	1,711	–	14	30	12	6	19	3	2	9	6	11
INSA [2]	28 Jun–1 Jul2024	2,006	–	15	29.5	12	5.5	17.5	2.5	2	8.5	7.5	12
Forsa [6]	25 Jun–1 Jul2024	2,506	18	15	31	11	6	16	–	–	7	14	15
INSA [2]	24–28 Jun2024	1,203	–	15	30	12	6	17	2	2	9	7	13
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	25–27 Jun2024	1,186	11	14	31	13	4	17	3	–	7	11	14
INSA [2]	21–24 Jun2024	2,008	–	14.5	30.5	11.5	5	17.5	3	2	8.5	7.5	13
Forsa [6]	18–24 Jun2024	2,505	19	15	31	11	5	16	–	3	7	12	15
INSA [2]	17–21 Jun2024	1,204	–	15	30	12	5	17	3	2	8	8	13
INSA [2]	14–17 Jun2024	2,010	–	15	31	11	5	17	3	2	8	8	14
Forsa [6]	11–17 Jun2024	2,504	–	15	30	12	5	16	–	2	7	12	14
GMS	11–17 Jun2024	1,007	–	14	31	14	5	18	3	2	6	7	13
INSA [2]	10–15 Jun2024	1,205	–	16	31	11	5	17	3	2	7	8	14
Allensbach [8]	1–13 Jun2024	1,084	–	16	32	13	6	15	3	–	7	8	16
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	10–12 Jun2024	1,334	15	14	30	14	5	16	–	–	7	14	14
Verian [20]	5–11 Jun2024	1,425	–	16	30	13	5	17	3	3	6	7	13
INSA [2]	7–10 Jun2024	2,008	–	15.5	30	12	5	16	3	2.5	7.5	8.5	14
Forsa [6]	4–10 Jun2024	2,505	22	16	30	13	6	16	–	–	6	13	14
2024 EU Parliament Election	9 Jun2024	–	–	13.9	30.0	11.9	5.2	15.9	2.7	2.7	6.2	11.5	14.1
INSA [2]	3–7 Jun2024	1,203	–	16	30	12	5	16	3	3	8	7	14
YouGov [7]	31 May–5 Jun2024	1,894	–	14	29	12	4	18	4	2	9	8	11
Ipsos	29 May–5 Jun2024	957	–	15	29	13	5	17	3	3	8	7	12
INSA [2]	31 May–3 Jun2024	2,002	–	16	30.5	12	5	15.5	3.5	2.5	7.5	7.5	14.5
Forsa [6]	28 May–3 Jun2024	2,506	22	17	30	13	6	15	–	–	6	13	13
INSA [2]	27–31 May2024	1,205	–	16	31	12	5	16	3	3	7	7	15
Infratest dimap [14]	27–29 May2024	1,479	–	15	31	14	4	18	3	3	5	7	13
INSA [2]	24–27 May2024	2,004	–	15	30.5	12	5	17	3	2.5	7	8	13.5
Forsa [6]	21–27 May2024	2,503	22	16	30	13	6	15	–	–	6	14	14
INSA [2]	21–24 May2024	1,202	–	15	30	13	5	17	3	3	7	7	13
INSA [2]	17–21 May2024	2,010	–	16	30	12.5	5	17	3	3	7	6.5	13
Wahlkreisprognose	13–19 May2024	2,500	24	16.5	31	13.5	6	15	3	–	6	9	14.5
Forsa [6]	14–17 May2024	2,001	–	16	32	14	5	15	–	–	5	13	16
INSA [2]	13–17 May2024	1,206	–	16	30	12	5	17	3	3	7	7	13
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	14–16 May2024	1,247	18	15	31	13	5	16	4	–	5	11	15
Allensbach [8]	4–16 May2024	1,093	–	17.5	32.5	13	6	14	3	–	8	6	15
Verian [20]	7–14 May2024	1,506	–	16	30	14	5	16	4	3	5	7	14
INSA [2]	10–13 May2024	2,087	–	15.5	30.5	13	5	17	3.5	2.5	7	6	13.5
Forsa [6]	7–13 May2024	2,006	23	16	32	13	5	15	3	–	5	11	16
INSA [2]	6–10 May2024	1,247	–	15	30	13	5	17	4	2	7	7	13
YouGov [7]	3–8 May2024	1,749	–	16	30	14	4	19	4	1	7	5	11
INSA [2]	3–6 May2024	2,006	–	15.5	30.5	12	5	18	3.5	2.5	7.5	5.5	12.5
Forsa [6]	30 Apr–6 May2024	2,000	–	16	31	12	6	15	3	–	4	13	15
GMS	30 Apr–6 May2024	1,005	–	15	31	14	4	18	2	3	6	7	13
Ipsos	2–5 May2024	2,000	–	16	28	13	5	18	4	3	7	6	10
INSA [2]	29 Apr–3 May2024	1.203	–	15	30	12	5	18	4	2	7	7	12
Infratest dimap [14]	29–30 Apr2024	1,280	–	15	31	15	5	18	–	–	5	11	13
INSA [2]	26–29 Apr2024	2.004	–	16.5	29.5	12.5	5	18.5	3.5	2.5	7	5	11
Forsa [6]	23–29 Apr2024	2,505	23	17	30	12	5	16	3	–	4	13	13
INSA [2]	22–26 Apr2024	1,203	–	16	29	13	5	18	4	2	7	6	11
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	23–25 Apr2024	1,228	18	15	30	15	4	17	4	–	5	10	13
INSA [2]	19–22 Apr2024	2,008	–	15	30.5	12.5	5	18.5	4	2.5	7	5	12
Forsa [6]	16–22 Apr2024	2,501	25	16	31	12	5	16	–	–	5	15	15
INSA [2]	15–19 Apr2024	1,204	–	15	30	13	5	18	4	2	7	6	12
Allensbach [8]	5–18 Apr2024	1,041	–	16	32.5	15	6	16	3	–	7	4.5	16.5
Verian [20]	10–16 Apr2024	1,445	–	16	30	14	5	18	3	3	5	6	12
INSA [2]	12–15 Apr2024	2,006	–	16	29.5	13	6	18.5	3	2.5	6.5	5	11
Forsa [6]	9–15 Apr2024	2,505	23	16	31	12	5	17	–	–	5	14	14
INSA [2]	8–12 Apr2024	1,203	–	16	30	13	5	18	3	2	6	7	12
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	9–11 Apr2024	1,254	20	16	31	12	4	18	3	–	6	10	13
YouGov [7]	5–10 Apr2024	1,588	–	14	29	15	5	19	4	1	7	6	10
INSA [2]	5–8 Apr2024	2,084	–	15	30.5	13	5	18.5	3.5	2.5	6.5	5.5	12
Forsa [6]	2–8 Apr2024	2,506	24	16	30	13	5	17	–	–	5	14	13
Ipsos	5–7 Apr2024	2,000	–	15	29	13	5	18	4	3	7	6	11
INSA [2]	2–5 Apr2024	1,243	–	15	31	13	5	19	3	2	6	6	12
Infratest dimap [14]	2–3 Apr2024	1,304	–	15	30	15	4	18	3	3	5	7	12
INSA [2]	28 Mar–2 Apr2024	2,004	–	15	30	12.5	5	19.5	3.5	2.5	6.5	5.5	10.5
Forsa [6]	26–28 Mar2024	1,508	24	16	31	13	4	17	–	–	5	14	14
INSA [2]	25–28 Mar2024	1,210	–	15	30	13	5	20	3	2	6	6	10
INSA [2]	22–25 Mar2024	2,008	–	15.5	30	12.5	5	19.5	3.5	2.5	6.5	5	10.5
Forsa [6]	19–25 Mar2024	2,503	24	16	31	13	4	17	3	3	5	8	14
INSA [2]	18–22 Mar2024	1,204	–	16	30	13	5	19	3	2	6	6	11
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	19–21 Mar2024	1,296	19	16	31	13	4	18	3	–	6	9	13
Wahlkreisprognose	18–20 Mar2024	1,300	25	19.5	29	14	4	15	3.5	–	6.5	8.5	9.5
Verian [20]	13–19 Mar2024	1,480	–	17	29	15	5	18	3	–	5	8	11
INSA [2]	15–18 Mar2024	2,002	–	16	29.5	12	5	19.5	3.5	2.5	6.5	5.5	10
Forsa [6]	12–18 Mar2024	2,500	24	16	31	13	4	17	3	3	5	8	14
INSA [2]	11–15 Mar2024	1,199	–	15	30	12	5	19	3	2	6	8	11
Allensbach [8]	1–14 Mar2024	1,027	–	15	34	14	5	16	3	–	7	6	18
INSA [2]	8–11 Mar2024	2,079	–	14.5	31	12.5	5.5	18.5	3.5	2.5	6.5	5.5	12.5
Forsa [6]	5–11 Mar2024	2,502	26	15	30	14	5	17	3	3	5	8	13
INSA [2]	4–8 Mar2024	1,249	–	15	31	12	5	19	3	2	7	6	12
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	5–7 Mar2024	1,260	19	15	30	15	4	18	3	3	5	7	12
Infratest dimap [14]	4–6 Mar2024	1,288	–	16	29	14	5	19	3	–	6	8	10
YouGov [7]	1–5 Mar2024	1,762	–	15	29	14	4	19	4	1	7	7	10
INSA [2]	1–4 Mar2024	2,024	–	14.5	30.5	13	5.5	19.5	3	2.5	6.5	5	11
Forsa [6]	27 Feb–4 Mar2024	2,506	–	15	31	14	5	17	3	3	4	8	14
Ipsos	1–3 Mar2024	2,000	–	15	29	14	5	18	3	3	7	6	11
INSA [2]	26 Feb–1 Mar2024	1,200	–	15	30	13	5	19	3	3	7	5	11
Verian [20]	21–27 Feb2024	1,392	–	16	30	15	5	18	3	–	4	9	12
INSA [2]	23–26 Feb2024	2,006	–	15.5	30.5	13	4.5	19	3	3	7.5	4	11.5
Forsa [6]	20–26 Feb2024	2,503	–	14	30	15	5	17	3	3	4	9	13
INSA [2]	19–23 Feb2024	1,203	–	15	30	13	5	19	3	3	8	4	11
Wahlkreisprognose	21–22 Feb2024	1,300	–	14	28.5	12.5	5.5	19	2	2	8.5	8	9.5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	20–22 Feb2024	1,294	18	15	30	14	4	19	4	–	5	9	11
Verian [20]	14–20 Feb2024	1,505	–	16	29	15	4	19	3	–	5	9	10
INSA [2]	16–19 Feb2024	2,007	–	14.5	30.5	12.5	4.5	19.5	3.5	3	7.5	4.5	11
Forsa [6]	13–19 Feb2024	2,504	24	15	30	14	5	17	3	3	4	9	13
INSA [2]	12–16 Feb2024	1,203	–	14	31	13	4	19	3	3	8	5	12
Allensbach [8]	3–15 Feb2024	1,053	–	15	32	14	6	18	3	–	7	5	14
INSA [2]	9–12 Feb2024	2,083	–	15	30	12.5	3.5	20.5	3.5	3	7.5	4.5	9.5
Forsa [6]	6–12 Feb2024	2,502	25	15	31	14	4	18	3	–	5	10	13
INSA [2]	5–8 Feb2024	1,276	–	15	30	13	4	20	3	3	7	5	10
YouGov [7]	2–6 Feb2024	2,018	–	14	31	12	4	20	3	1	7	6	11
INSA [2]	2–5 Feb2024	2,004	–	15	30	12.5	4.5	20.5	3.5	3	7.5	3.5	9.5
GMS	31 Jan–5 Feb2024	1,012	–	16	32	13	4	18	2	3	5	7	14
Forsa [6]	30 Jan–5 Feb2024	2,503	25	15	31	14	4	18	3	3	5	7	13
Ipsos	2–4 Feb2024	2,000	–	15	30	13	4	18	4	3	8	5	12
INSA [2]	29 Jan–2 Feb2024	1,202	–	15	30	13	4	20	4	3	7	4	10
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	30 Jan–1 Feb2024	1,217	20	15	31	13	4	19	3	3	6	6	12
Infratest dimap [14]	29–31 Jan2024	1,303	–	16	30	14	4	19	3	–	5	9	11
INSA [2]	26–29 Jan2024	2,002	–	14.5	30	12.5	5	21	3.5	2.5	7	4	9
Forsa [6]	23–29 Jan2024	2,506	27	15	32	14	3	19	3	3	3	8	13
INSA [2]	22–26 Jan2024	1,201	–	14	31	13	4	21	4	2	7	4	10
Wahlkreisprognose	22–24 Jan2024	1,366	26	17.5	30.5	11	4.5	22	2.5	4	–	8	8.5
				15.5	27.5	12.5	6.5	19	2.5	2	9	5.5	8.5
Verian [20]	16–23 Jan2024	1,922	–	16	29	16	4	19	4	–	3	9	10
Pollytix [15]	19–22 Jan2024	1,530	–	15	29	12	5	22	4	–	9	4	7
INSA [2]	19–22 Jan2024	2,006	–	13.5	30.5	12.5	5	21.5	3	2.5	–	11.5	8
Forsa [6]	16–22 Jan2024	2,503	–	14	31	14	4	20	4	3	3	7	11
INSA [2]	15–19 Jan2024	1,203	–	13	30	13	5	22	3	3	7	4	8
Allensbach [8]	5–18 Jan2024	1,018	–	15	34	13.5	6	19.5	4	3	–	5	14.5
INSA [2]	12–15 Jan2024	2,004	–	14	31	12	5	23	4	3	–	8	8
Forsa [6]	9–15 Jan2024	2,504	–	13	31	14	4	22	4	3	–	9	9
INSA	11–12 Jan2024	1,002	–	14	27	12	4	18	3	3	14	5	9
INSA [2]	8–12 Jan2024	1,202	–	15	30	12	5	22	4	3	–	9	8
Verian [20]	9–11 Jan2024	1,359	–	14	31	16	4	22	4	3	–	6	9
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	9–11 Jan2024	1,337	21	13	31	14	4	22	4	4	4	4	9
INSA [2]	5–8 Jan2024	2,008	–	16	32	12	5	23	4	3	–	5	9
YouGov [7]	3–8 Jan2024	1,614	–	15	29	12	6	24	5	2	–	7	5
Forsa [6]	2–8 Jan2024	2,502	–	15	30	14	4	22	4	3	–	8	8
Ipsos	5–7 Jan2024	2,000	–	15	30	13	6	22	5	–	–	9	8
INSA [2]	2–5 Jan2024	1,204	–	16	31	12	5	23	4	3	–	6	8
Wahlkreisprognose	2–4 Jan2024	1,500	24	12	34	10.5	4.5	24.5	3	4	–	7.5	9.5
Infratest dimap [14]	2–3 Jan2024	1,321	–	14	31	13	5	22	4	3	–	8	9
INSA [2]	29 Dec–2 Jan2024	2,002	–	15	32	13	5	22.5	4	3	–	5.5	9.5
GMS	27 Dec–2 Jan2024	1,004	–	14	33	13	6	23	3	3	–	5	10
2021 federal election	26 Sep2021	–	23.4	25.7	24.2	14.7	11.4	10.4	4.9	2.4	–	6.3	1.6

2023

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Abs.	SPD	Union	Grüne	FDP	AfD	Linke	FW	Others	Lead
INSA [2]	28–29 Dec2023	1,001	–	15	32	12	5	23	4	3	6	9
INSA [2]	22–27 Dec2023	2,000	–	15	32	12	5	23	4	3	6	9
Forsa	19–22 Dec2023	–	–	14	31	14	5	22	3	–	11	9
INSA [2]	18–22 Dec2023	1,202	–	15	32	12	5	22	4	3	7	10
Infratest dimap [14]	18–20 Dec2023	1,210	–	14	32	14	5	21	3	4	7	11
Verian [20]	13–19 Dec2023	1,421	–	15	31	15	4	21	4	–	10	10
INSA [2]	15–18 Dec2023	2,002	–	15.5	31.5	12.5	5	23	4	2.5	6	8.5
Forsa [6]	12–18 Dec2023	2,501	26	14	31	13	5	23	3	–	11	8
INSA [2]	11–15 Dec2023	1,202	–	15	32	12	5	23	4	2	7	9
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	12–14 Dec2023	1,146	21	14	32	14	5	22	4	3	6	10
Allensbach [8]	1–14 Dec2023	1,013	–	17	34	15	5	18	3.5	3	4.5	16
Verian [20]	6–12 Dec2023	1,515	–	15	30	16	5	20	4	–	10	10
INSA [2]	8–11 Dec2023	2,008	–	16	30	12.5	6	22.5	4	3	6	7.5
GMS	6–11 Dec2023	1,001	–	14	32	15	5	22	2	3	7	10
Forsa [6]	5–11 Dec2023	2,501	27	14	31	13	5	22	4	–	11	9
INSA [2]	4–8 Dec2023	1,203	–	16	30	12	6	22	4	3	7	8
Infratest dimap [14]	4–6 Dec2023	1,364	–	14	32	15	4	21	3	3	8	11
YouGov [7]	1–6 Dec2023	1,669	–	14	30	14	6	23	4	2	7	7
Verian [20]	29 Nov–5 Dec2023	1,402	–	14	30	17	4	20	4	–	11	10
INSA [2]	1–4 Dec2023	2,006	–	15.5	29.5	13	6	22.5	3.5	3	7	7
Forsa [6]	28 Nov–4 Dec2023	2,501	–	14	30	14	5	22	4	–	11	8
Ipsos	1–3 Dec2023	2,000	–	16	29	13	6	21	5	–	10	8
INSA [2]	27 Nov–1 Dec2023	1,202	–	16	30	13	6	22	3	3	7	8
Verian [20]	20–28 Nov2023	1,806	–	17	29	16	5	19	4	–	10	10
Wahlkreisprognose	25–27 Nov2023	1,200	25	15	31	13	5	26	3.5	–	6.5	5
INSA [2]	24–27 Nov2023	2,007	–	15.5	30.5	12.5	6	22	4	3	6.5	8.5
Forsa [6]	21–27 Nov2023	2,500	25	14	30	15	5	21	4	–	11	9
INSA [2]	20–24 Nov2023	1,202	–	16	30	12	6	22	4	3	7	8
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	21–23 Nov2023	1,242	22	15	31	15	5	22	4	–	8	9
Verian [20]	14–21 Nov2023	1,452	–	16	29	17	5	20	4	–	9	9
INSA [2]	17–20 Nov2023	2,003	–	16.5	30	13	5.5	21	4.5	3	6.5	9
Forsa [6]	14–20 Nov2023	2,501	26	15	30	14	5	21	3	3	9	9
INSA [2]	13–17 Nov2023	1,201	–	16	30	13	6	21	4	3	7	9
Allensbach [8]	1–16 Nov2023	1,047	–	17	32	13.5	6	19	3.5	4	5	13
Verian [20]	8–14 Nov2023	1,421	–	16	28	16	6	20	4	–	10	8
INSA [2]	10–13 Nov2023	2,008	–	16.5	30.5	13.5	5	21.5	4.5	3	5.5	9
Forsa [6]	7–13 Nov2023	2,504	–	14	30	14	5	21	4	3	9	9
INSA [2]	6–10 Nov2023	1,204	–	17	30	14	5	21	4	3	6	9
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	7–9 Nov2023	1,234	21	16	30	15	5	21	4	3	6	9
Infratest dimap [14]	7–8 Nov2023	1,195	–	15	30	15	5	21	4	3	7	9
YouGov [7]	3–7 Nov2023	1,732	–	15	29	15	5	22	5	2	7	7
Kantar [20]	1–7 Nov2023	1,443	–	16	28	16	6	20	4	3	7	8
INSA [2]	3–6 Nov2023	2,006	–	16.5	29.5	13.5	5.5	22	4.5	3	5.5	7.5
Forsa [6]	31 Oct–6 Nov2023	2,502	–	15	29	14	5	21	4	3	9	8
Ipsos	3–5 Nov2023	2,000	–	17	28	15	6	20	5	–	9	8
INSA [2]	30 Oct–3 Nov2023	1,204	–	16	30	13	6	22	4	3	6	8
Infratest dimap [14]	30 Oct–1 Nov2023	1,314	–	16	30	14	4	22	5	3	6	8
Kantar [20]	25–31 Oct2023	1,418	–	17	27	16	5	21	4	–	10	6
INSA [2]	27–30 Oct2023	2,010	–	16.5	30.5	13	5.5	21	4	3.5	6	9.5
Forsa [6]	24–30 Oct2023	2,501	26	15	29	14	5	22	3	3	9	7
INSA [2]	23–27 Oct2023	1,216	–	16	31	13	6	21	4	3	6	10
Wahlkreisprognose	23–25 Oct2023	1,300	24	14.5	30	14	6	22	4	–	9.5	8
Kantar [20]	18–24 Oct2023	1,422	–	16	28	16	5	20	5	–	10	8
INSA [2]	20–23 Oct2023	2,004	–	16.5	28.5	13	5.5	22	5	3.5	6	6.5
Forsa [6]	17–23 Oct2023	2,504	–	14	31	14	5	21	4	3	8	10
INSA [2]	16–20 Oct2023	1,202	–	16	29	13	5	22	5	4	6	7
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	17–19 Oct2023	1,252	21	15	30	14	5	21	5	3	7	9
Allensbach [8]	6–19 Oct2023	1,010	–	17	34	13	5	19	3	4	5	15
Kantar [20]	11–17 Oct2023	1,388	–	14	31	15	5	21	4	3	7	10
INSA [2]	13–16 Oct2023	2,006	–	16.5	28	13	6	23	4.5	4	5	5
Forsa [6]	10–16 Oct2023	2,501	22	14	32	14	4	21	4	3	8	11
INSA [2]	9–13 Oct2023	1,202	–	17	28	13	6	23	5	4	4	5
Infratest dimap [14]	10–11 Oct2023	1,203	–	15	29	13	5	23	4	4	5	6
YouGov [7]	6–10 Oct2023	1,842	–	16	29	15	5	21	6	2	5	8
Kantar [20]	4–10 Oct2023	1,386	–	16	27	15	6	22	5	3	6	5
INSA [2]	6–9 Oct2023	2,001	–	17	27	13.5	6	22.5	5	3	6	4.5
Forsa [6]	4–9 Oct2023	2,003	–	18	28	14	6	20	4	–	10	8
Ipsos	6–8 Oct2023	2,000	–	17	26	14	7	22	5	–	9	4
INSA [2]	2–6 Oct2023	1,201	–	17	27	14	6	22	5	3	6	5
INSA [2]	29 Sep–2 Oct2023	2,010	–	18	26.5	13.5	7	22	5	2.5	5.5	4.5
Forsa [6]	26–29 Sep2023	2,004	25	18	28	14	5	20	4	–	11	8
INSA [2]	25–29 Sep2023	1,206	–	18	26	14	7	22	5	3	5	4
Kantar [20]	26–28 Sep2023	1,391	–	16	26	16	7	21	5	–	9	5
Infratest dimap [14]	25–27 Sep2023	1,302	–	16	28	14	6	22	4	3	7	6
Kantar [20]	20–26 Sep2023	1,356	–	16	27	15	7	21	5	–	9	6
Wahlkreisprognose	24–25 Sep2023	1,200	24	18.5	24	15	6.5	23	3.5	–	9.5	1
INSA [2]	22–25 Sep2023	2,003	–	17.5	27	13.5	6.5	21.5	5	3	6	5.5
Forsa [6]	19–25 Sep2023	2,503	27	17	27	14	6	21	4	–	11	6
INSA [2]	18–22 Sep2023	1,203	–	17	27	14	6	22	5	3	6	5
Kantar [20]	13–19 Sep2023	1,370	–	17	27	15	7	21	4	–	9	6
INSA [2]	15–18 Sep2023	2,008	–	17	26.5	14.5	6	21	5	3.5	6.5	5.5
GMS	13–18 Sep2023	1,002	–	16	27	15	6	23	4	–	9	4
Forsa [6]	12–18 Sep2023	2,504	27	17	27	14	6	22	4	–	10	5
INSA [2]	11–15 Sep2023	1,204	–	17	27	15	6	21	5	3	6	6
Allensbach [8]	4–15 Sep2023	1,030	–	18	30	14	7	19	5	–	7	11
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	12–14 Sep2023	1,201	21	17	26	16	6	21	5	3	6	5
Infratest dimap [14]	12–13 Sep2023	1,222	–	16	28	15	7	22	4	–	8	6
Kantar [20]	6–12 Sep2023	1,442	–	16	26	15	7	22	5	–	9	4
INSA [2]	8–11 Sep2023	2,002	–	18	26.5	14	7	22	4.5	–	8	4.5
Forsa [6]	5–11 Sep2023	2,505	28	17	27	13	7	21	4	–	11	6
INSA [2]	4–8 Sep2023	1,201	–	18	27	13	7	22	5	–	8	5
YouGov [7]	1–6 Sep2023	1,833	–	16	29	14	5	23	5	1	8	6
Kantar [20]	30 Aug–5 Sep2023	1,441	–	17	26	15	6	21	5	–	10	5
INSA [2]	1–4 Sep2023	2,010	–	17.5	26.5	13.5	7.5	21.5	4.5	–	9	5
Forsa [6]	29 Aug–4 Sep2023	2,506	–	16	27	14	7	21	4	–	11	6
Ipsos	1–3 Sep2023	2,000	–	17	26	14	8	21	6	–	8	5
INSA [2]	28 Aug–1 Sep2023	1,195	–	18	27	13	7	21	5	–	9	6
Infratest dimap [14]	28–30 Aug2023	1,310	–	16	29	14	6	22	4	–	9	7
Kantar [20]	23–29 Aug2023	1,330	–	18	25	15	7	20	5	–	10	5
INSA [2]	25–28 Aug2023	2,006	–	18	26.5	14.5	7	21	4.5	–	8.5	5.5
Forsa [6]	22–28 Aug2023	2,504	29	17	26	14	7	21	4	–	11	5
Wahlkreisprognose	22–27 Aug2023	1,200	26	20.5	25	13	7.5	22	4	–	8	3
INSA [2]	21–25 Aug2023	1,285	–	18	27	14	7	21	5	–	8	6
Kantar [20]	16–22 Aug2023	1,426	–	18	26	14	7	20	5	–	10	6
INSA [2]	18–21 Aug2023	2,008	–	18.5	26.5	14	8	20.5	5	–	7.5	6
Forsa [6]	15–21 Aug2023	2,506	29	18	26	14	7	20	4	–	11	6
INSA [2]	14–18 Aug2023	1,203	–	18	27	14	8	21	5	–	7	6
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	15–17 Aug2023	1,288	26	19	26	15	7	20	5	–	8	6
Infratest dimap [14]	15–16 Aug2023	1,216	–	17	27	14	7	21	4	–	10	6
Allensbach [8]	4–16 Aug2023	1,026	–	19	29	14	7	19	5	–	7	10
Kantar [20]	9–15 Aug2023	1,426	–	18	26	15	7	19	5	–	10	7
INSA [2]	11–14 Aug2023	2,002	–	19.5	26	13.5	7	21	4.5	–	8.5	5
Forsa [6]	8–14 Aug2023	2,501	28	17	25	15	7	21	4	–	11	4
INSA [2]	7–11 Aug2023	1,200	–	20	26	13	7	21	5	–	8	5
GMS	2–9 Aug2023	1,004	–	17	27	14	7	21	4	–	10	6
Kantar [20]	2–8 Aug2023	1,330	–	19	27	16	6	18	6	–	8	8
INSA [2]	4–7 Aug2023	2,004	–	19	27	14.5	7.5	20.5	4.5	–	7	6.5
Forsa [6]	1–7 Aug2023	2,502	28	17	25	15	7	21	4	–	11	4
Ipsos	4–6 Aug2023	1,000	–	17	26	15	8	22	5	–	7	4
INSA [2]	31 Jul–4 Aug2023	1,203	–	19	27	14	7	21	5	–	7	6
Infratest dimap [14]	31 Jul–2 Aug2023	1,297	–	17	27	15	7	21	4	–	9	6
Kantar [20]	26 Jul–1 Aug2023	1,310	–	19	27	16	6	19	5	–	8	8
YouGov [7]	25 Jul–2 Aug2023	1,756	–	17	27	14	5	23	6	1	7	4
INSA [2]	28–31 Jul2023	2,003	–	18.5	26.5	14	6.5	21.5	5	–	8	5
Forsa [6]	25–31 Jul2023	2,500	28	17	25	15	6	21	5	–	11	4
INSA [2]	24–28 Jul2023	1,200	–	18	26	14	7	22	5	–	8	4
Wahlkreisprognose	26–27 Jul2023	1,525	23	20.5	25	13	7	20.5	4.5	3	6.5	4.5
Kantar [20]	19–25 Jul2023	1,402	–	18	27	16	6	20	5	–	8	7
INSA [2]	21–24 Jul2023	2,006	–	18.5	26.5	14	7.5	21.5	4.5	–	7.5	5
Forsa [6]	18–24 Jul2023	2,504	28	18	27	14	6	19	5	–	11	8
INSA [2]	17–21 Jul2023	1,266	–	18	26	14	7	22	5	–	8	4
Infratest dimap [14]	18–19 Jul2023	1,235	–	18	28	13	7	20	4	–	10	8
Allensbach [8]	7–19 Jul2023	1,011	–	19	29	16	7	18	4	–	7	10
Kantar [20]	12–18 Jul2023	1,403	–	18	26	16	7	20	5	–	8	6
INSA [2]	14–17 Jul2023	2,004	–	18	27	14	7	20.5	5	–	8.5	6.5
Forsa [6]	11–17 Jul2023	2,502	26	18	26	15	7	20	4	–	10	6
INSA [2]	10–14 Jul2023	1,184	–	18	27	14	7	20	5	–	9	7
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	11–13 Jul2023	1,347	27	17	27	16	7	20	4	–	9	7
Kantar [20]	5–11 Jul2023	1,393	–	19	26	15	7	20	5	–	8	6
INSA [2]	7–10 Jul2023	2,008	–	19	26	14	7	20.5	5	–	8.5	5.5
Ipsos	7–9 Jul2023	1,000	–	18	26	14	7	22	5	–	8	4
Forsa [6]	4–7 Jul2023	2,003	25	18	27	14	7	19	5	–	10	8
INSA [2]	3–7 Jul2023	1,204	–	19	27	13	7	20	5	–	9	7
Infratest dimap [14]	3–5 Jul2023	1,305	–	18	28	14	7	20	4	–	9	8
YouGov [7]	30 Jun–4 Jul2023	1,694	–	18	27	14	6	21	6	1	6	6
Kantar [20]	28 Jun–4 Jul2023	1,403	–	18	27	15	6	20	5	–	9	7
INSA [2]	30 Jun–3 Jul2023	2,897	–	19	25.5	14.5	6.5	21	5	–	8.5	4.5
GMS	28 Jun–3 Jul2023	1,005	–	17	28	14	7	20	4	–	10	8
Forsa [6]	27 Jun–3 Jul2023	2,501	25	18	27	15	6	19	5	–	10	8
INSA [2]	26–30 Jun2023	1,401	–	19	26	14	7	20	5	–	9	6
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	27–29 Jun2023	1,379	24	18	28	16	6	19	5	–	8	9
Kantar [20]	20–27 Jun2023	1,408	–	18	26	15	7	19	5	–	10	7
INSA [2]	23–26 Jun2023	2,004	–	19.5	26.5	13.5	6.5	20.5	4.5	–	9	6
Forsa [6]	20–26 Jun2023	2,506	25	18	27	15	7	19	4	–	10	8
Wahlkreisprognose	22–25 Jun2023	1,399	25	21	24	14.5	6	21	4.5	–	9	3
INSA [2]	19–23 Jun2023	1,203	–	20	26	13	7	20	4	–	10	6
Allensbach [8]	9–22 Jun2023	1,039	–	19	31	15	8	17	4	–	6	12
Infratest dimap [14]	20–21 Jun2023	1,191	–	17	29	15	6	19	4	–	10	10
Kantar [20]	14–20 Jun2023	1,406	–	19	27	15	7	20	4	–	8	7
INSA [2]	16–19 Jun2023	2,006	–	20	26.5	13.5	7.5	20	4.5	–	8	6.5
Forsa [6]	13–19 Jun2023	2,503	25	18	27	15	7	19	4	–	10	8
INSA [2]	12–16 Jun2023	1,203	–	20	27	13	8	19	4	–	9	7
Civey	9–16 Jun2023	10,031	–	19	25	16	7	20	5	–	8	5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	13–15 Jun2023	1,224	21	19	28	16	6	18	5	–	8	9
Kantar [20]	6–13 Jun2023	1,387	–	20	27	15	6	19	5	–	8	7
INSA [2]	9–12 Jun2023	2,003	–	20	27	13	8	19.5	4.5	–	8	7
Forsa [6]	6–12 Jun2023	2,504	24	18	29	14	7	19	4	–	9	10
INSA [2]	5–9 Jun2023	1,201	–	20	27	13	8	19	5	–	8	7
YouGov [7]	2–7 Jun2023	1,628	–	19	28	13	5	20	6	1	7	8
Kantar [20]	31 May–6 Jun2023	1,402	–	20	27	15	7	18	5	–	8	7
INSA [2]	2–5 Jun2023	2,009	–	19	26.5	13.5	9	19	5	–	8	7.5
GMS	31 May–5 Jun2023	1,001	–	18	29	15	7	19	4	–	8	10
Forsa [6]	30 May–5 Jun2023	2,505	23	18	30	14	7	17	4	–	10	12
Ipsos	2–4 Jun2023	1,000	–	20	28	13	8	19	6	–	6	8
Wahlkreisprognose	1–2 Jun2023	1,100	24	21	27	13	8	19	4	–	8	6
INSA [2]	30 May–2 Jun2023	1,205	–	19	27	13	9	19	5	–	8	8
Infratest dimap [14]	30–31 May2023	1,302	–	18	29	15	7	18	4	–	9	11
INSA [2]	26–30 May2023	2,004	–	20.5	28	13	8.5	18	4.5	–	7.5	7.5
Kantar [20]	23–30 May2023	1,379	–	20	27	15	8	17	5	–	8	7
Forsa [6]	23–26 May2023	2,001	23	18	29	14	7	17	5	–	10	11
INSA [2]	22–26 May2023	1,207	–	20	28	13	9	18	4	–	8	8
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	23–25 May2023	1,257	24	20	28	16	6	17	5	–	8	8
Kantar [20]	16–23 May2023	1,321	–	18	29	15	8	16	5	–	9	11
INSA [2]	19–22 May2023	2,004	–	20.5	27.5	14	8.5	17	5	–	7.5	7
Forsa [6]	16–22 May2023	2,003	–	18	30	14	7	16	5	–	10	12
INSA [2]	15–19 May2023	1,195	–	21	28	14	8	17	5	–	7	7
Kantar [20]	9–16 May2023	1,401	–	18	28	16	8	16	5	–	9	10
INSA [2]	12–15 May2023	2,010	–	20	28	14.5	8.5	16.5	5	–	7.5	8
Forsa [6]	9–15 May2023	2,503	25	17	30	15	8	16	4	–	10	13
INSA [2]	8–12 May2023	1,205	–	20	28	15	9	16	4	–	8	8
Infratest dimap [14]	9–10 May2023	1,220	–	18	28	16	8	16	5	–	9	10
Allensbach [8]	28 Apr–10 May2023	1,001	–	18	32	16	8	15	5	–	6	14
YouGov [7]	5–9 May2023	1,700	–	16	31	16	5	17	6	2	7	14
Kantar [20]	3–9 May2023	1,405	–	18	29	17	8	16	5	–	7	11
INSA [2]	5–8 May2023	2,008	–	20	28	14	9	16.5	4.5	–	8	8
Forsa [6]	2–8 May2023	2,505	–	18	29	16	7	16	4	–	10	11
Ipsos	5–7 May2023	1,000	–	19	29	15	8	16	5	–	8	10
INSA [2]	2–5 May2023	1,204	–	20	28	14	9	16	4	–	9	8
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	2–4 May2023	1,225	28	19	30	17	6	15	5	–	8	11
Infratest dimap [14]	2–3 May2023	1,360	–	17	30	16	7	16	5	–	9	13
INSA [2]	28 Apr–2 May2023	2,006	–	21	27	15	8	16.5	4.5	–	8	6
Kantar [20]	26 Apr–2 May2023	1,394	–	17	31	16	8	16	4	–	8	14
Wahlkreisprognose	26–30 Apr2023	1,400	24	21	27.5	14	10.5	15	3.5	–	8.5	6.5
Forsa [6]	25–28 Apr2023	2,007	–	17	30	16	7	16	4	–	10	13
INSA [2]	24–28 Apr2023	1,202	–	21	28	14	8	16	5	–	8	7
Kantar [20]	18–25 Apr2023	1,426	–	18	30	16	7	16	5	–	8	12
INSA [2]	21–24 Apr2023	2,004	–	20	27.5	14.5	9	16	4.5	–	8.5	7.5
Forsa [6]	18–24 Apr2023	2,506	23	18	30	16	7	15	4	–	10	12
INSA [2]	17–21 Apr2023	1,202	–	20	28	15	9	16	4	–	8	8
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	18–20 Apr2023	1,266	24	18	31	18	6	15	4	–	8	13
Kantar [20]	12–18 Apr2023	1,407	–	19	29	17	7	15	4	–	9	10
Allensbach [8]	3–18 Apr2023	1,007	–	20	31	15	7.5	16	5	–	5.5	11
INSA [2]	14–17 Apr2023	2,008	–	21	27.5	15	8	16	4.5	–	8	6.5
Forsa [6]	11–17 Apr2023	2,508	24	18	29	17	7	15	4	–	10	11
INSA [2]	11–14 Apr2023	1,204	–	21	27	15	8	16	5	–	8	6
Infratest dimap [14]	11–12 Apr2023	1,204	–	19	29	17	7	15	4	–	9	10
INSA [2]	6–11 Apr2023	2,005	–	20	27.5	15.5	8	16	4.5	–	8.5	7.5
Kantar [20]	5–11 Apr2023	1,367	–	21	27	17	8	14	5	–	8	6
Forsa [6]	4–6 Apr2023	1,501	25	18	30	18	7	14	4	–	10	12
INSA [2]	3–6 Apr2023	1,204	–	20	28	16	8	16	4	–	8	8
Infratest dimap [14]	3–5 Apr2023	1,304	–	18	30	17	7	15	4	–	9	12
Ipsos	3–4 Apr2023	1,000	–	21	27	17	8	15	4	–	8	6
YouGov [7]	30 Mar–4 Apr2023	1,522	–	20	30	15	6	17	6	1	6	10
Kantar [20]	29 Mar–4 Apr2023	1,269	–	20	27	18	8	14	5	–	8	7
INSA [2]	31 Mar–3 Apr2023	2,007	–	20	28	15.5	7.5	16	4.5	–	8.5	8
GMS	29 Mar–3 Apr2023	1,007	–	19	31	17	6	15	4	–	8	12
Forsa [6]	28 Mar–3 Apr2023	2,502	25	18	29	18	7	14	4	–	10	11
INSA [2]	27–31 Mar2023	1,200	–	21	27	16	8	16	4	–	8	6
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	28–30 Mar2023	1,379	25	19	30	17	7	15	5	–	7	11
Kantar [20]	21–28 Mar2023	1,387	–	18	28	19	7	15	4	–	9	10
INSA [2]	24–27 Mar2023	2,004	–	20.5	28	16	8	15.5	4	–	8	7.5
Forsa [6]	21–27 Mar2023	2,506	24	19	29	18	6	14	4	–	10	10
Wahlkreisprognose	23–26 Mar2023	1,200	23	23	26.5	15	7.5	13.5	4	–	10.5	3.5
INSA [2]	20–24 Mar2023	1,203	–	21	28	16	8	15	4	–	8	7
Kantar [20]	14–21 Mar2023	1,504	–	18	28	18	7	15	5	–	9	10
INSA [2]	17–20 Mar2023	2,006	–	21.5	28	15	7.5	16	5	–	7	6.5
Forsa [6]	14–20 Mar2023	2,503	23	19	29	18	6	14	5	–	9	10
INSA [2]	13–17 Mar2023	1,202	–	21	28	15	8	16	5	–	7	7
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	14–16 Mar2023	1,146	24	21	29	19	5	14	5	–	7	8
Infratest dimap [14]	14–15 Mar2023	1,215	–	18	30	16	7	15	5	–	9	12
Allensbach [8]	2–15 Mar2023	1,101	–	21	31	16	6.5	15	4.5	–	6	10
Kantar [20]	8–14 Mar2023	1,432	–	19	28	18	7	15	5	–	8	9
INSA [2]	10–13 Mar2023	2,002	–	21.5	28.5	15.5	7.5	16	4	–	7	7
Forsa [6]	7–13 Mar2023	2,505	22	20	29	17	6	14	5	–	9	9
INSA [2]	6–10 Mar2023	1,268	–	21	29	16	7	15	4	–	8	8
YouGov [7]	3–7 Mar2023	1,649	–	20	28	16	6	17	7	1	6	8
Kantar [20]	1–7 Mar2023	1,504	–	19	29	19	7	13	5	–	8	10
INSA [2]	3–6 Mar2023	2,007	–	20	29.5	15.5	7.5	15.5	5	–	7	9.5
Forsa [6]	28 Feb–6 Mar2023	2,504	–	20	31	17	5	13	5	–	9	11
Ipsos	3–4 Mar2023	1,000	–	20	27	18	7	15	5	–	8	7
INSA [2]	27 Feb–3 Mar2023	1,203	–	20	30	16	7	15	5	–	7	10
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	28 Feb–2 Mar2023	1,165	24	21	29	18	5	15	5	–	7	8
Infratest dimap [14]	27 Feb–1 Mar2023	1,311	–	18	31	17	6	14	5	–	9	13
Wahlkreisprognose	27 Feb–1 Mar2023	1,419	25	23.5	32	15.5	5	14	3	–	7	8.5
Kantar [20]	21–28 Feb2023	1,722	–	20	28	18	6	14	6	–	8	8
INSA [2]	24–27 Feb2023	2,010	–	20.5	29.5	15.5	7.5	15.5	4.5	–	7	9
Forsa [6]	21–27 Feb2023	2,501	22	20	31	17	5	13	5	–	9	11
INSA [2]	20–24 Feb2023	1,200	–	21	29	16	7	15	5	–	7	8
Kantar [20]	14–21 Feb2023	1,373	–	21	29	17	6	15	5	–	7	8
INSA [2]	17–20 Feb2023	2,006	–	21.5	29	15.5	7	15.5	5	–	6.5	7.5
GMS	15–20 Feb2023	1,004	–	19	29	17	7	15	5	–	8	10
Forsa [6]	14–20 Feb2023	2,510	–	19	31	17	6	13	5	–	9	12
INSA [2]	13–17 Feb2023	1,207	–	21	29	16	7	16	5	–	6	8
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	14–16 Feb2023	1,361	25	20	30	19	5	14	5	–	7	10
Infratest dimap [14]	14–15 Feb2023	1,216	–	19	29	17	6	15	5	–	9	10
Kantar [20]	8–14 Feb2023	1,386	–	21	26	18	7	15	5	–	8	5
INSA [2]	10–13 Feb2023	2,005	–	20	28	16	7.5	16	5	–	7.5	8
Forsa [6]	7–13 Feb2023	2,505	23	21	28	18	6	13	5	–	9	7
INSA [2]	6–10 Feb2023	1,457	–	20	28	16	8	16	5	–	7	8
YouGov [7]	3–9 Feb2023	1,736	–	19	27	16	6	17	6	2	7	8
Allensbach [8]	27 Jan–9 Feb2023	1,088	–	22.5	30	16	7.5	14	4	–	6	7.5
Kantar [20]	31 Jan–7 Feb2023	1,410	–	21	25	19	7	15	5	–	8	4
INSA [2]	3–6 Feb2023	2,008	–	21	27	16	8	15.5	5	–	7.5	6
Forsa [6]	31 Jan–6 Feb2023	2,502	24	21	28	18	7	13	5	–	8	7
Ipsos	3 Feb2023	1,000	–	20	26	17	8	16	5	–	8	6
INSA [2]	30 Jan–3 Feb2023	1,462	–	21	28	16	8	15	5	–	7	7
Infratest dimap [14]	30 Jan–1 Feb2023	1,328	–	20	27	18	7	15	4	–	9	7
Kantar [20]	25–31 Jan2023	1,405	–	21	25	19	7	15	5	–	8	4
INSA [2]	27–30 Jan2023	2,007	–	20.5	28.5	16	7.5	15	5	–	7.5	8
Forsa [6]	24–30 Jan2023	2,503	–	20	27	19	7	13	5	–	9	7
Wahlkreisprognose	26–27 Jan2023	1,421	26	24	24	18	6.5	14.5	3.5	–	9.5	Tie
INSA [2]	24–27 Jan2023	1,506	–	20	29	16	7	15	5	–	8	9
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	24–26 Jan2023	1,345	26	21	27	19	6	15	6	–	6	6
Kantar [20]	18–24 Jan2023	1,392	–	21	27	19	7	14	5	–	7	6
INSA [2]	20–23 Jan2023	2,009	–	20.5	28	16.5	7.5	15	4.5	–	8	7.5
Forsa [6]	17–23 Jan2023	2,502	23	19	28	20	7	12	5	–	9	8
INSA [2]	16–21 Jan2023	1,504	–	20	28	16	7	15	5	–	9	8
Infratest dimap [14]	17–18 Jan2023	1,211	–	19	29	19	6	14	4	–	9	10
Allensbach [8]	5–18 Jan2023	1,023	–	21	31	17	6	14	4.5	–	6.5	10
Kantar [20]	11–17 Jan2023	1,418	–	20	27	20	6	14	5	–	8	7
Wahlkreisprognose	15–16 Jan2023	1,500	–	21.5	24.5	17	8	16.5	3.5	–	9	3
INSA [2]	13–16 Jan2023	2,006	–	21	28	16.5	7.5	15	5	–	7	7
Forsa [6]	10–16 Jan2023	2,500	24	18	28	20	7	13	5	–	9	8
INSA [2]	9–13 Jan2023	1,202	–	20	27	17	8	15	5	–	8	7
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	10–12 Jan2023	1,259	26	20	27	21	6	14	6	–	6	6
Civey	5–12 Jan2023	10,065	–	18	28	20	7	14	5	–	8	8
Ipsos	9–10 Jan2023	1,000	–	19	27	18	7	15	6	–	8	8
YouGov [7]	6–10 Jan2023	1,561	–	18	27	17	8	16	6	1	6	9
Kantar [20]	4–10 Jan2023	1,398	–	19	28	18	7	14	4	–	10	9
INSA [2]	6–9 Jan2023	2,006	–	20	27	17.5	7.5	15	5	–	8	7
Forsa [6]	3–9 Jan2023	2,502	23	18	29	20	7	13	5	–	8	9
INSA [2]	2–6 Jan2023	1,465	–	20	27	18	7	15	5	–	8	7
Infratest dimap [14]	2–4 Jan2023	1,314	–	18	29	19	6	15	5	–	8	10
GMS	28 Dec–3 Jan2023	1,002	–	19	29	17	7	14	5	–	9	10
INSA [2]	29 Dec–2 Jan2023	2,010	–	20	27	17.5	7.5	15	4.5	–	8.5	7
2021 federal election	26 Sep2021	–	23.4	25.7	24.2	14.7	11.4	10.4	4.9	2.4	6.3	1.6

2022

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Abs.	SPD	Union	Grüne	FDP	AfD	Linke	FW	Others	Lead
INSA [2]	27–29 Dec2022	1,205	–	20	26	18	7	15	5	−	9	6
INSA [2]	19–22 Dec2022	1,203	–	21	27	17	8	14	5	−	8	6
YouGov [7]	16–21 Dec2022	1,608	–	19	30	17	7	14	5	1	8	11
INSA [2]	16–19 Dec2022	2,005	–	21	27.5	17.5	7.5	14.5	4.5	−	7.5	6.5
Forsa [6]	13–19 Dec2022	2,503	24	19	28	19	7	13	5	−	9	9
INSA [2]	12–16 Dec2022	1,501	–	21	27	18	7	15	5	−	7	6
Kantar [20]	13–15 Dec2022	1,717	–	19	29	18	7	14	5	−	8	10
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	12–15 Dec2022	1,365	22	20	28	20	6	15	5	−	6	8
Allensbach [8]	2–15 Dec2022	1,035	–	22	30	18	7.5	12	4.5	−	6	8
INSA [2]	9–12 Dec2022	2,007	–	20	28.5	18	7	15.5	4.5	−	6.5	8.5
Kantar [20]	7–12 Dec2022	1,429	–	18	28	19	7	14	5	−	9	9
Forsa [6]	6–12 Dec2022	2,506	24	19	29	19	7	12	5	−	9	10
Wahlkreisprognose	7–9 Dec2022	1,500	–	22.5	25	16.5	7	14.5	4	−	10.5	2.5
INSA [2]	2–9 Dec2022	1,502	–	20	28	18	7	15	4	−	8	8
Infratest dimap [14]	6–7 Dec2022	1,259	–	18	29	18	6	15	5	−	9	11
Kantar [20]	30 Nov–6 Dec2022	1,443	–	19	27	19	6	15	5	−	9	8
INSA [2]	3–5 Dec2022	2,008	–	20.5	28	17	7	14.5	5	−	8	7.5
Forsa [6]	29 Nov–5 Dec2022	2,500	25	19	29	19	7	12	5	−	9	10
Ipsos	2–3 Dec2022	1,000	–	19	27	19	7	14	6	−	8	8
INSA [2]	28 Nov–2 Dec2022	1,502	–	20	28	17	7	15	5	−	8	8
Civey	25 Nov–2 Dec2022	10,016	–	19	28	21	7	13	4	−	8	7
GMS	28 Nov–1 Dec2022	1,005	–	18	28	21	7	12	4	−	10	7
Infratest dimap [14]	28–30 Nov2022	1,318	–	18	30	18	5	15	5	−	9	12
Kantar [20]	22–29 Nov2022	1,414	–	18	27	20	7	14	5	−	9	7
INSA [2]	25–28 Nov2022	2,006	–	21	27	17.5	7	15	5	−	7.5	6
Forsa [6]	22–28 Nov2022	2,505	24	19	29	20	6	12	5	−	9	9
INSA [2]	21–25 Nov2022	1,501	–	21	27	18	7	15	5	−	7	6
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	22–24 Nov2022	1,273	26	19	28	22	5	14	6	−	6	6
Kantar [20]	15–22 Nov2022	1,430	–	19	29	19	7	13	4	−	9	10
INSA [2]	18–21 Nov2022	2,004	–	20	28	17	7.5	15	5	−	7.5	8
Forsa [6]	15–21 Nov2022	2,502	25	19	28	20	6	13	5	−	9	8
INSA [2]	14–18 Nov2022	1,314	–	20	28	17	7	15	5	−	8	8
Allensbach [8]	5–17 Nov2022	1,042	–	20	29.5	20	7	14	4	−	5.5	9.5
Kantar [20]	9–15 Nov2022	1,443	–	20	27	19	7	13	5	−	9	7
INSA [2]	11–14 Nov2022	2,010	–	20.5	27.5	17.5	7	15	4.5	−	8	7
Forsa [6]	8–14 Nov2022	2,503	25	19	28	20	6	14	4	−	9	8
INSA [2]	8–11 Nov2022	1,255	–	21	28	18	7	15	4	−	7	7
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	8–10 Nov2022	1,310	23	19	28	22	5	15	5	−	6	6
Infratest dimap [14]	8–9 Nov2022	1,225	–	18	28	19	7	14	4	−	10	9
YouGov [7]	4–9 Nov2022	1,608	–	18	29	20	5	16	7	1	5	9
Wahlkreisprognose	7–8 Nov2022	1,300	–	24.5	25.5	16	8.5	14	3.5	−	8	1
Kantar [20]	2–8 Nov2022	1,442	–	21	26	20	7	14	5	−	7	5
Ipsos	4–7 Nov2022	1,000	–	19	27	20	7	13	6	−	8	7
INSA [2]	4–7 Nov2022	2,007	–	21	27	17.5	8	14.5	4.5	−	7.5	6
Forsa [6]	1–7 Nov2022	2,502	24	19	28	19	6	14	5	−	9	9
INSA [2]	1–4 Nov2022	1,286	–	21	27	17	8	15	5	−	7	6
Infratest dimap [14]	31 Oct–2 Nov2022	1,307	–	19	28	19	6	14	5	−	9	9
Kantar [20]	25 Oct–2 Nov2022	1,516	–	21	26	19	8	14	5	−	7	5
INSA [2]	28–31 Oct2022	2,009	–	20.5	26	18	9	15	4.5	−	7	5.5
Forsa [6]	25–31 Oct2022	2,503	23	20	27	20	6	14	4	−	9	7
INSA [2]	24–28 Oct2022	1,230	–	20	26	18	9	15	5	−	7	6
Kantar [20]	19–25 Oct2022	1,406	–	21	25	20	7	15	5	−	7	4
GMS	19–25 Oct2022	1,002	–	18	28	20	6	15	4	−	9	8
INSA [2]	21–24 Oct2022	2,007	–	20.5	26.5	17.5	8.5	15	4.5	−	7.5	6
Forsa [6]	18–24 Oct2022	2,502	22	19	28	20	6	14	4	−	9	8
Wahlkreisprognose	18–21 Oct2022	1,910	–	22	25	17.5	8	16	3.5	−	8	3
INSA [2]	17–21 Oct2022	1,503	–	20	27	18	8	15	5	−	7	7
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	18–20 Oct2022	1,389	22	19	28	21	6	15	5	−	6	7
Kantar [20]	12–18 Oct2022	1,435	–	22	23	20	7	16	4	−	8	1
INSA [2]	14–17 Oct2022	2,000	–	19.5	27.5	18.5	7.5	15.5	4.5	−	7	8
Forsa [6]	11–17 Oct2022	2,505	–	20	27	20	6	14	4	−	9	7
INSA [2]	10–14 Oct2022	1,327	–	19	28	18	8	15	5	−	7	9
Allensbach [8]	1–13 Oct2022	1,021	–	19	30.5	19	7	14	5	−	5.5	11.5
Infratest dimap [14]	11–12 Oct2022	1,225	–	19	26	20	6	15	5	−	9	6
YouGov [7]	7–12 Oct2022	1,617	–	16	29	19	6	15	6	2	7	10
Kantar [20]	5–11 Oct2022	1,433	–	20	25	21	6	15	5	−	8	4
Forsa [6]	4–10 Oct2022	2,501	24	18	28	20	6	14	5	−	9	8
INSA [2]	4–10 Oct2022	2,005	–	19.5	27.5	19	7.5	15	5	−	6.5	8
Ipsos	7–9 Oct2022	1,000	–	18	27	21	7	13	6	−	8	6
INSA [2]	4–7 Oct2022	1,315	–	19	27	19	8	15	5	−	7	8
Wahlkreisprognose	3–6 Oct2022	1,923	–	21	25	16	9	16	4.5	−	8.5	4
Infratest dimap [14]	3–5 Oct2022	1,307	–	17	28	19	7	15	5	−	9	9
Kantar [20]	28 Sep–4 Oct2022	1,864	–	18	27	20	8	14	6	−	7	7
INSA [2]	30 Sep–3 Oct2022	2,008	–	19	27.5	18.5	8	15	5.5	−	6.5	8.5
Forsa [6]	27–30 Sep2022	2,001	25	18	28	20	6	14	5	−	9	8
INSA [2]	26–30 Sep2022	1,210	–	19	28	18	8	15	6	−	6	9
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	27–29 Sep2022	1,355	27	18	27	22	7	14	5	−	7	5
Kantar [20]	22–27 Sep2022	1,381	–	19	27	21	8	13	5	−	7	6
INSA [2]	23–26 Sep2022	2,102	–	18	27.5	19.5	8	15	5.5	−	6.5	8
Forsa [6]	20–26 Sep2022	2,505	23	18	28	20	7	13	5	−	9	8
INSA [2]	19–23 Sep2022	1,255	–	19	28	19	8	14	5	−	7	9
Wahlkreisprognose	20–22 Sep2022	1,700	–	22	26	18	8	13.5	4	−	8.5	4
Kantar [20]	14–20 Sep2022	1,444	–	19	27	20	7	14	5	−	8	7
GMS	14–20 Sep2022	1,003	–	18	28	21	7	13	4	−	9	7
INSA [2]	16–19 Sep2022	2,080	–	18.5	28.5	19	7.5	14	5.5	−	7	9.5
Forsa [6]	13–19 Sep2022	2,506	23	19	28	19	7	13	5	−	9	9
INSA [2]	12–16 Sep2022	1,476	–	19	28	19	7	13	6	−	8	9
Infratest dimap [14]	13–14 Sep2022	1,224	–	17	28	21	7	14	5	−	8	7
Allensbach [8]	1–14 Sep2022	1,030	–	20	30	19	7	13	5.5	−	5.5	10
YouGov [7]	9–13 Sep2022	1,635	–	16	29	19	6	14	7	1	7	10
Kantar [20]	7–13 Sep2022	1,443	–	20	26	21	7	13	5	−	8	5
Forsa [6]	6–13 Sep2022	2,501	–	19	28	20	6	13	5	−	9	8
INSA [2]	9–12 Sep2022	2,039	–	18	28	20	8	13.5	5.5	−	7	8
Wahlkreisprognose	9–11 Sep2022	1,300	–	20	25.5	19	7	14	5.5	−	9	5.5
INSA [2]	5–9 Sep2022	1,443	–	19	27	20	8	13	5	−	8	7
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	6–8 Sep2022	1,299	25	19	28	23	6	13	5	−	6	5
Kantar [20]	31 Aug–6 Sep2022	1,416	–	20	25	21	8	12	5	−	9	4
INSA [2]	2–5 Sep2022	2,004	–	18	28	20.5	7.5	13.5	5.5	−	7	7.5
Forsa [6]	30 Aug–5 Sep2022	2,500	25	18	26	24	7	11	5	−	9	2
Ipsos	2–4 Sep2022	1,000	–	19	26	21	8	12	6	−	8	5
INSA [2]	29 Aug–2 Sep2022	1,203	–	19	28	20	8	13	5	−	7	8
Infratest dimap [14]	29–31 Aug2022	1,324	–	17	27	22	8	13	5	−	8	5
Kantar [20]	24–30 Aug2022	1,411	–	21	24	22	8	12	5	−	8	2
INSA [2]	26–29 Aug2022	2,138	–	19	27.5	20.5	8	13	5.5	−	6.5	7
Forsa [6]	23–29 Aug2022	2,503	25	17	26	25	7	11	5	−	9	1
INSA [2]	22–26 Aug2022	1,204	–	20	28	21	8	12	5	−	6	7
Civey	18–25 Aug2022	10,014	–	19	27	22	7	11	5	−	9	5
Kantar [20]	17–23 Aug2022	1,431	–	19	26	23	7	12	5	−	8	3
INSA [2]	19–22 Aug2022	2,091	–	18.5	28	21	7.5	13	5.5	−	6.5	7
Forsa [6]	16–22 Aug2022	2,505	25	18	26	25	7	11	4	−	9	1
INSA [2]	15–19 Aug2022	1,427	–	19	28	21	8	12	5	−	7	7
Wahlkreisprognose	16–18 Aug2022	1,433	–	18	25	26	6	14	3	−	8	1
Allensbach [8]	5–18 Aug2022	1,038	–	19.5	29	21	8	12	5	−	5.5	8
Infratest dimap [14]	16–17 Aug2022	1,273	–	18	28	23	7	12	4	−	8	5
Kantar [20]	10–16 Aug2022	1,429	–	20	28	23	6	12	4	−	7	5
INSA [2]	12–15 Aug2022	2,146	–	19	28	22	8	12	5	−	6	6
Forsa [6]	9–15 Aug2022	2,500	28	18	26	25	6	11	4	−	10	1
INSA [2]	8–12 Aug2022	1,502	–	19	27	22	9	12	5	−	6	5
Wahlkreisprognose	6–12 Aug2022	2,920	–	16	24	25.5	8	14.5	3.5	−	8.5	1.5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	9–11 Aug2022	1,389	25	19	26	26	7	12	4	−	6	Tie
YouGov [7]	5–10 Aug2022	1,595	–	19	27	21	6	14	6	1	7	6
Kantar [20]	3–9 Aug2022	1,422	–	21	27	22	7	11	5	−	7	5
Ipsos	5–8 Aug2022	1,000	–	19	27	22	8	11	5	−	8	5
INSA [2]	5–8 Aug2022	2,099	–	18	27	21.5	8	12.5	5.5	−	7.5	5.5
Forsa [6]	2–8 Aug2022	2,504	26	18	26	24	7	10	5	−	10	2
INSA [2]	1–5 Aug2022	1,701	–	19	27	21	9	12	5	−	7	6
Infratest dimap [14]	1–3 Aug2022	1,313	–	17	28	23	7	13	4	−	8	5
Kantar [20]	26 Jul–2 Aug2022	1,426	–	21	25	23	6	11	5	−	9	2
INSA [2]	29 Jul–1 Aug2022	2,144	–	18.5	26.5	22	8	12	5	−	8	4.5
Forsa [6]	26 Jul–1 Aug2022	2,504	–	18	27	24	7	10	5	−	9	3
INSA [2]	25–29 Jul2022	1,202	–	19	26	22	9	12	5	−	7	4
Kantar [20]	19–26 Jul2022	1,413	–	21	26	22	7	11	5	−	8	4
INSA [2]	22–25 Jul2022	2,043	–	18.5	26.5	22	8	12	5	−	8	4.5
GMS	20–25 Jul2022	1,005	–	18	27	23	9	10	5	−	8	4
Forsa [6]	19–25 Jul2022	2,510	22	19	26	24	6	10	5	−	10	2
INSA [2]	18–22 Jul2022	1,501	–	18	27	23	8	12	5	−	7	4
Allensbach [8]	8–21 Jul2022	1,006	–	22	27.5	22	7	11	5	−	5.5	5.5
Infratest dimap [14]	19–20 Jul2022	1,210	–	19	27	22	7	12	4	−	9	5
Wahlkreisprognose	19–20 Jul2022	1,400	−	22	24	24	8.5	10.5	3.5	−	7.5	Tie
Kantar [20]	13–19 Jul2022	1,392	–	19	25	23	8	11	5	−	9	2
INSA [2]	15–18 Jul2022	2,062	–	18.5	26.5	22	8	12	4.5	−	8.5	4.5
Forsa [6]	12–18 Jul2022	2,501	–	20	26	24	6	9	5	−	10	2
Civey	11–18 Jul2022	10,018	–	20	27	23	7	10	5	−	8	4
INSA [2]	11–15 Jul2022	1,277	–	19	26	22	8	11	5	−	9	4
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	12–14 Jul2022	1,167	25	21	26	25	6	11	5	−	6	1
Kantar [20]	6–12 Jul2022	1,433	–	20	25	24	8	11	4	−	8	1
INSA [2]	8–11 Jul2022	2,044	–	20	27	21	8.5	11	4.5	−	8	6
Forsa [6]	5–11 Jul2022	2,503	22	19	26	24	7	9	5	−	10	2
INSA [2]	4–8 Jul2022	1,202	–	19	28	22	8	10	4	−	9	6
Wahlkreisprognose	5–6 Jul2022	1,700	−	22	25	22	8	10	4	−	9	3
Infratest dimap [14]	4–6 Jul2022	1,327	–	19	27	23	8	11	4	−	8	4
YouGov [7]	1–5 Jul2022	1,655	–	19	28	20	7	12	5	1	8	8
Kantar [20]	28 Jun–5 Jul2022	1,426	–	20	25	24	7	10	5	−	9	1
INSA [2]	1–4 Jul2022	2,066	–	19	28	21	9.5	11	4	−	7.5	7
Forsa [6]	28 Jun–4 Jul2022	2,502	23	20	26	24	8	9	4	−	9	2
Ipsos	1–2 Jul2022	1,000	–	22	26	20	9	10	5	−	8	4
INSA [2]	27 Jun–2 Jul2022	1,253	–	20	27	22	9	11	4	−	7	5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	28–30 Jun2022	1,186	20	21	27	25	6	10	5	−	6	2
Kantar [20]	21–28 Jun2022	1,410	–	20	26	25	8	10	4	−	7	1
INSA [2]	24–27 Jun2022	2,101	–	20	27	21.5	9	10.5	4	−	8	5.5
Forsa [6]	21–27 Jun2022	2,500	22	20	26	24	8	9	4	−	9	2
Wahlkreisprognose	23–26 Jun2022	2,430	−	22	25	21	7	12	4	−	9	3
INSA [2]	20–24 Jun2022	1,414	–	20	26	22	9	11	4	−	8	4
Infratest dimap [14]	21–22 Jun2022	1,248	–	20	26	23	8	12	4	−	7	3
Kantar [20]	14–21 Jun2022	1,769	–	20	26	24	8	10	4	−	8	2
INSA [2]	17–20 Jun2022	2,063	–	19.5	28	21	9.5	10	4	−	8	7
GMS	15–20 Jun2022	1,003	–	21	29	21	8	8	4	−	9	8
Forsa [6]	14–20 Jun2022	2,504	25	19	28	23	8	9	4	−	9	5
INSA [2]	13–17 Jun2022	1,501	–	20	27	21	9	10	4	−	9	6
Allensbach [8]	3–17 Jun2022	1,046	–	23	27	22	8	10	4.5	−	5.5	4
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	13–15 Jun2022	1,133	22	22	26	25	6	10	5	−	6	1
Kantar [20]	8–14 Jun2022	1,895	–	20	28	22	8	9	4	−	9	6
INSA [2]	10–13 Jun2022	2,082	–	20	27.5	21	9.5	10.5	3.5	−	8	6.5
Forsa [6]	7–13 Jun2022	2,511	20	20	27	23	8	9	4	−	9	4
INSA [2]	7–10 Jun2022	1,203	–	21	27	21	9	10	4	−	8	6
Wahlkreisprognose	7–8 Jun2022	1,603	−	22	24	20	7	13	6	−	8	2
Ipsos	3–7 Jun2022	1,000	–	23	27	19	9	10	4	−	8	4
YouGov [7]	3–7 Jun2022	1,633	–	18	30	21	7	12	6	1	6	9
INSA [2]	3–7 Jun2022	2,055	–	20	27	21.5	9.5	10.5	3.5	−	8	5.5
Kantar [20]	1–7 Jun2022	1,428	–	22	26	23	9	8	4	−	8	3
Forsa [6]	31 May–3 Jun2022	2,002	20	19	27	23	8	10	4	−	9	4
INSA [2]	30 May–3 Jun2022	1,501	–	22	27	20	9	9	4	−	9	5
Infratest dimap [14]	30 May–1 Jun2022	1,226	–	21	27	21	8	11	4	−	8	6
Wahlkreisprognose	30 May–1 Jun2022	1,500	−	18	27	25.5	8	9	4	−	8.5	1.5
Kantar [20]	24–31 May2022	1,428	–	20	28	23	8	8	4	−	9	5
INSA [2]	27–30 May2022	2,056	–	22	27	20.5	8.5	10	3.5	−	8.5	5
GMS	25–30 May2022	1,005	–	22	30	20	8	7	4	−	9	8
Forsa [6]	24–30 May2022	2,004	21	19	29	24	7	9	4	−	8	5
INSA [2]	23–27 May2022	1,337	–	23	27	19	9	9	4	−	9	4
Kantar [20]	17–24 May2022	1,422	–	21	27	21	8	9	5	−	9	6
INSA [2]	20–23 May2022	2,100	–	22	28.5	20	8.5	10.5	3	−	7.5	6.5
Forsa [6]	17–23 May2022	2,505	22	21	28	23	7	9	4	−	8	5
Civey	16–23 May2022	10,050	–	22	27	20	8	11	5	−	7	5
INSA [2]	16–20 May2022	1,214	–	21	28	19	10	10	3	−	9	7
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	17–19 May2022	1,162	22	22	26	24	7	10	4	−	7	2
Allensbach [8]	6–18 May2022	1,118	–	24	29	20.5	8	9	4.5	−	5	5
Kantar [20]	11–17 May2022	1,425	–	22	26	21	8	10	5	−	8	4
Wahlkreisprognose	15–16 May2022	1,302	−	23.5	29	23	5.5	7.5	2.5	−	9	5.5
INSA [2]	13–16 May2022	2,147	–	21.5	28	20.5	9	11	3	−	7	6.5
Forsa [6]	10–16 May2022	2,502	23	22	27	22	8	8	4	−	9	5
INSA [2]	9–13 May2022	1,501	–	22	27	18	10	10	4	−	9	5
Infratest dimap [14]	10–11 May2022	1,226	–	22	26	20	8	11	4	−	9	4
YouGov [7]	6–10 May2022	1,659	–	20	28	19	9	10	5	1	7	8
Kantar [20]	4–10 May2022	1,426	–	22	26	20	9	10	5	−	8	4
Wahlkreisprognose	8–9 May2022	1,610	−	24	23.5	22.5	10.5	9	3	−	7.5	0.5
INSA [2]	6–9 May2022	2,086	–	22.5	27.5	19	10	10.5	3.5	−	7	5
Forsa [6]	3–9 May2022	2,501	–	23	26	21	9	9	4	−	8	3
Ipsos	6 May2022	906	–	24	25	16	11	11	5	−	8	1
INSA [2]	2–6 May2022	1,501	–	23	27	18	11	10	3	−	8	4
pollytix	29 Apr–4 May2022	1,303	–	22	26	17	12	12	5	−	6	4
Kantar [20]	26 Apr–3 May2022	1,570	–	23	27	19	9	9	5	−	8	4
INSA [2]	29 Apr–2 May2022	2,146	–	23	27	19	9.5	10.5	4.5	−	6.5	4
Forsa [6]	26 Apr–2 May2022	2,508	–	23	26	20	9	9	4	−	9	3
INSA [2]	25–29 Apr2022	1,202	–	23	26	18	10	11	4	−	8	3
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	26–28 Apr2022	1,170	21	25	23	21	9	11	4	−	7	2
Infratest dimap [14]	25–27 Apr2022	1,314	–	24	26	18	9	11	3	−	9	2
Kantar [20]	19–26 Apr2022	1,431	–	23	25	20	9	9	5	−	9	2
INSA [2]	22–25 Apr2022	2,056	–	24	26.5	18	9	11.5	4.5	−	6.5	2.5
GMS	20–25 Apr2022	1,003	–	26	26	18	8	9	4	−	9	Tie
Forsa [6]	19–25 Apr2022	2,507	25	24	25	20	9	9	4	−	9	1
Civey	8–25 Apr2022	10,011	–	24	25	20	9	11	4	−	7	1
Wahlkreisprognose	23 Apr2022	1,007	−	24.5	22.5	22	11	8.5	3	−	8.5	2
INSA [2]	19–22 Apr2022	1,296	–	24	26	18	9	11	5	−	7	2
Kantar [20]	12–19 Apr2022	1,715	–	25	25	19	9	9	4	−	9	Tie
INSA [2]	15–18 Apr2022	2,073	–	23.5	26	19	9	11	4.5	−	7	2.5
Forsa [6]	12–14 Apr2022	1,501	25	25	25	20	8	9	4	−	9	Tie
INSA [2]	11–14 Apr2022	1,402	–	25	26	17	10	10	5	−	7	1
Infratest dimap [14]	11–12 Apr2022	1,226	–	24	26	18	8	11	4	−	9	2
YouGov [7]	8–12 Apr2022	1,643	–	21	26	18	9	12	6	1	7	5
Kantar [20]	6–12 Apr2022	1,960	–	26	25	19	8	10	4	−	8	1
INSA [2]	8–11 Apr2022	2,061	–	25	27	17.5	9	11	4.5	−	6	2
Forsa [6]	5–11 Apr2022	2,500	25	27	24	19	8	9	4	−	9	3
INSA [2]	4–8 Apr2022	1,503	–	25	26	16	10	11	4	−	8	1
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	5–7 Apr2022	1,230	21	27	24	19	8	11	4	−	7	3
Infratest dimap [14]	4–6 Apr2022	1,325	–	24	25	19	9	11	4	−	8	1
Allensbach [8]	25 Mar–6 Apr2022	1,075	–	28	24	17	9	9	6	−	7	4
Kantar [20]	30 Mar–5 Apr2022	1,437	–	27	25	19	8	10	4	−	7	2
Wahlkreisprognose	3–4 Apr2022	2,450	−	27	25.5	19	8.5	9	3	−	8	1.5
INSA [2]	1–4 Apr2022	2,063	–	25	26	17.5	10.5	10.5	4.5	−	6	1
Ipsos	1 Apr2022	912	–	25	23	15	12	12	6	−	7	2
Forsa [6]	29 Mar–4 Apr2022	2,508	24	27	24	19	8	9	4	−	9	3
INSA [2]	25 Mar–1 Apr2022	1,501	–	26	26	16	10	11	4	−	7	Tie
Kantar [20]	23–29 Mar2022	1,428	–	25	26	18	9	9	5	−	8	1
INSA [2]	25–28 Mar2022	2,070	–	25	26	16.5	10	10.5	5.5	−	6.5	1
Forsa [6]	22–28 Mar2022	2,507	22	24	26	18	9	9	5	−	9	2
INSA [2]	21–25 Mar2022	1,205	–	26	26	16	10	11	5	−	6	Tie
Kantar [20]	16–22 Mar2022	1,429	–	26	25	18	9	9	6	−	7	1
INSA [2]	18–21 Mar2022	2,122	–	24.5	26.5	16.5	11	11	4.5	−	6	2
Forsa [6]	15–21 Mar2022	2,501	22	23	27	18	10	9	5	−	8	4
Allensbach [8]	9–21 Mar2022	1,041	–	25	25	17	10.5	10	5	−	7.5	Tie
Wahlkreisprognose	18–20 Mar2022	1,923	−	26.5	25.5	18.5	10	8.5	3	−	8	1
INSA [2]	14–18 Mar2022	1,198	–	26	26	16	10	10	5	−	7	Tie
Infratest dimap [14]	15–16 Mar2022	1,254	–	25	26	17	9	11	4	−	8	1
Kantar [20]	9–15 Mar2022	1,416	–	26	26	19	8	9	5	−	7	Tie
INSA [2]	11–14 Mar2022	2,073	–	25	25.5	15.5	10.5	10.5	5	−	8	0.5
Forsa [6]	8–14 Mar2022	2,502	–	25	26	18	9	9	5	−	8	1
INSA [2]	7–11 Mar2022	1,201	–	26	24	16	10	10	6	−	8	2
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	8–10 Mar2022	1,345	19	27	24	18	9	10	5	−	7	3
YouGov [7]	4–8 Mar2022	1,629	–	23	26	16	9	11	6	1	7	3
Kantar [20]	2–8 Mar2022	1,426	–	25	26	19	8	10	5	−	7	1
INSA [2]	4–7 Mar2022	2,103	–	25	24.5	15.5	11	10.5	6	−	7.5	0.5
Ipsos	4 Mar2022	935	–	25	24	16	11	11	6	−	7	1
Forsa [6]	1–7 Mar2022	2,501	22	26	25	18	9	7	6	−	9	1
INSA [2]	28 Feb–4 Mar2022	1,185	–	25	25	15	11	11	6	−	7	Tie
Infratest dimap [14]	28 Feb–2 Mar2022	1,320	–	25	26	16	9	11	5	−	8	1
Kantar [20]	23 Feb–1 Mar2022	1,405	–	26	26	17	8	10	6	−	7	Tie
INSA [2]	25–28 Feb2022	2,067	–	23	27	15.5	11	10.5	6.5	−	6.5	4
Forsa [6]	24–28 Feb2022	1,500	–	25	26	18	9	7	6	−	9	1
Wahlkreisprognose	24–27 Feb2022	2,030	−	26	23.5	17.5	11.5	10.5	4	−	7	2.5
GMS	23–26 Feb2022	1,005	–	24	27	15	10	9	6	−	9	3
INSA [2]	21–25 Feb2022	1,405	–	23	26	15	11	12	7	−	6	3
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	21–23 Feb2022	1,103	20	26	24	17	9	11	6	−	7	2
Kantar [20]	16–22 Feb2022	1,432	–	26	25	17	9	10	7	−	6	1
INSA [2]	18–21 Feb2022	1,539	–	23	27	14.5	12.5	11	6	−	6	4
Forsa [6]	15–21 Feb2022	2,500	23	23	27	17	9	9	6	−	9	4
INSA [2]	14–18 Feb2022	1,303	–	22	27	15	11	12	7	−	6	5
Infratest dimap [14]	15–16 Feb2022	1,202	–	24	26	15	9	12	5	−	9	2
Allensbach [8]	3–16 Feb2022	1,033	–	23	27	15	10.5	10	6	−	6.5	4
Wahlkreisprognose	13–15 Feb2022	1,200	−	25	24.5	17	9.5	9.5	6	−	8.5	0.5
YouGov [7]	10–15 Feb2022	1,659	–	21	27	17	9	11	7	1	6	6
Kantar [20]	8–15 Feb2022	1,434	–	24	24	16	10	12	6	−	8	Tie
INSA [2]	11–14 Feb2022	2,141	–	22.5	26	15	12	12	6	−	6.5	3.5
Forsa [6]	8–14 Feb2022	2,504	22	23	27	16	9	9	6	−	10	4
INSA [2]	7–11 Feb2022	1,504	–	22	26	16	11	12	6	−	7	4
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	8–10 Feb2022	1,224	18	25	25	16	9	11	6	−	8	Tie
pollytix	4–8 Feb2022	1,547	–	23	27	15	9	12	8	−	6	4
Kantar [20]	1–8 Feb2022	1,287	–	22	26	16	10	12	6	−	8	4
INSA [2]	4–7 Feb2022	2,067	–	23	26	15	12	11	7	−	6	3
Ipsos	4 Feb2022	910	–	25	24	16	8	12	8	−	7	1
Forsa [6]	1–7 Feb2022	2,502	23	22	27	16	9	10	6	−	10	5
INSA [2]	1–4 Feb2022	1,202	–	22	27	16	11	11	6	−	7	5
Wahlkreisprognose	1–3 Feb2022	2,330	−	21	28	19	8.5	10	5.5	−	8	7
Civey	22 Jan–3 Feb2022	10,070	–	25	25	15	10	11	6	–	8	Tie
Infratest dimap [14]	31 Jan–2 Feb2022	1,339	–	22	27	16	10	12	5	–	8	5
Kantar [20]	26 Jan–1 Feb2022	1,410	–	24	24	17	9	11	6	−	9	Tie
INSA [2]	28–31 Jan2022	2,247	–	24	25	15	12.5	10	6.5	–	7	1
Forsa [6]	25–31 Jan2022	2,501	23	23	27	16	9	10	6	–	9	4
INSA [2]	24–28 Jan2022	1,383	–	26	24	16	11	11	6	–	6	2
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	25–27 Jan2022	1,249	21	24	23	18	10	10	7	–	8	1
YouGov [7]	21–25 Jan2022	1,602	–	23	26	15	8	12	8	2	7	3
Kantar [20]	19–25 Jan2022	1,415	–	24	24	18	10	10	6	–	8	Tie
INSA [2]	21–24 Jan2022	2,146	–	26	24	15	11.5	11	6	–	6.5	2
Forsa [6]	18–24 Jan2022	2,502	22	25	24	16	10	10	6	–	9	1
INSA [2]	17–21 Jan2022	1,204	–	26	23	16	12	12	6	–	5	3
Allensbach [8]	6–20 Jan2022	1,090	–	27.5	23	14.5	12.5	10	5.5	–	7	4.5
Infratest dimap [14]	18–19 Jan2022	1,424	–	25	24	16	10	12	5	–	8	1
Wahlkreisprognose	15–18 Jan2022	1,920	−	27.5	22.5	17	10.5	10	4.5	–	8	5
Kantar [20]	12–18 Jan2022	1,441	–	26	22	17	9	12	6	–	8	4
INSA [2]	14–17 Jan2022	2,130	–	26	22.5	15.5	12	12	6	–	6	3.5
Forsa [6]	11–17 Jan2022	2,504	22	25	25	16	10	10	5	–	9	Tie
INSA [2]	10–14 Jan2022	1,504	–	27	23	16	11	12	5	–	6	4
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	11–13 Jan2022	1,128	21	27	22	16	11	10	6	–	8	5
Kantar [20]	5–11 Jan2022	1,426	–	26	23	17	10	10	6	–	8	3
INSA [2]	7–10 Jan2022	2,107	–	26.5	23	15	12	12	5	–	6.5	3.5
Forsa [6]	3–10 Jan2022	3,003	22	25	25	17	10	9	5	–	9	Tie
Ipsos	6–9 Jan2022	929	–	25	21	15	11	12	6	–	10	4
INSA [2]	3–7 Jan2022	1,504	–	27	23	16	12	11	5	–	6	4
Infratest dimap [14]	3–5 Jan2022	1,325	–	26	23	16	11	11	5	–	8	3
INSA [2]	30 Dec–3 Jan2022	2,060	–	26.5	23	15.5	11	11.5	6	–	6.5	3.5
GMS	29 Dec–3 Jan2022	1,003	–	26	24	16	12	11	4	–	7	2
2021 federal election	26 Sep2021	–	23.4	25.7	24.2	14.7	11.4	10.4	4.9	2.4	6.3	1.5

2021

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Abs.	SPD	Union	Grüne	FDP	AfD	Linke	FW	Others	Lead
INSA [2]	27–30 Dec2021	1,201	–	27	24	16	10	11	5	–	7	3
INSA [2]	20–23 Dec2021	1,195	–	28	23	15	11	11	5	–	7	5
INSA [2]	17–20 Dec2021	2,075	–	27.5	21.5	14.5	13	11.5	5.5	–	6.5	6
Forsa [6]	14–20 Dec2021	2,501	–	26	24	16	10	9	5	–	10	2
Wahlkreisprognose	18–19 Dec2021	1,120	−	30	21.5	14.5	11.5	10	4	–	8.5	8.5
INSA [2]	13–18 Dec2021	1,501	–	27	23	14	12	12	5	–	7	4
Kantar [20]	14–16 Dec2021	1,436	–	27	22	16	11	11	5	–	8	5
Allensbach [8]	1–15 Dec2021	1,069	–	26	24	15	13	10.5	5	–	6.5	2
YouGov [7]	10–14 Dec2021	1,715	–	27	23	16	10	11	6	2	6	4
Kantar [20]	8–14 Dec2021	1,440	–	27	22	16	11	10	5	–	9	5
INSA [2]	10–13 Dec2021	2,221	–	27	22	14.5	13	11.5	5.5	–	6.5	5
Forsa [6]	7–13 Dec2021	2,509	–	26	23	15	11	10	5	–	10	3
INSA [2]	6–10 Dec2021	1,480	–	26	22	15	13	11	5	–	8	4
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	7–9 Dec2021	1,303	21	28	21	17	12	10	5	–	7	7
Infratest dimap [14]	7–8 Dec2021	1,266	–	26	23	16	12	11	5	–	7	3
Civey	1–8 Dec2021	10,043	–	27	23	15	11	11	5	–	8	4
Kantar [20]	1–7 Dec2021	1,439	–	28	21	15	11	11	5	3	6	7
INSA [2]	3–6 Dec2021	2,119	–	26	22	15	13.5	11.5	5.5	–	6.5	4
Wahlkreisprognose	1–6 Dec2021	1,002	−	29	18	16.5	13.5	11	4	–	8	11
Forsa [6]	30 Nov–6 Dec2021	2,503	–	25	22	17	11	10	5	–	10	3
INSA [2]	29 Nov–3 Dec2021	1,348	–	26	21	15	13	12	5	–	8	5
Infratest dimap [14]	29 Nov–1 Dec2021	1,316	–	25	23	17	12	11	5	–	7	2
Civey	24 Nov–1 Dec2021	10,078	–	26	24	15	11	11	5	–	8	2
Kantar [20]	24–30 Nov2021	1,425	–	27	20	16	12	11	6	–	8	7
INSA [2]	26–29 Nov2021	2,129	–	25	21	16	14	11	5.5	–	7.5	4
Forsa [6]	23–29 Nov2021	2,509	–	24	22	17	12	10	5	–	10	2
INSA [2]	22–26 Nov2021	1,403	–	26	21	15	13	12	6	–	7	5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	23–25 Nov2021	1,344	19	28	19	17	13	11	5	–	7	9
Infratest dimap [14]	23–24 Nov2021	1,239	–	25	21	17	13	11	5	–	8	4
Wahlkreisprognose	22–24 Nov2021	1,002	–	27	22.5	15.5	11.5	10	5	–	8.5	4.5
Civey	17–24 Nov2021	10,064	–	25	24	15	11	11	5	–	9	1
YouGov [7]	19–23 Nov2021	1,797	–	25	23	16	11	12	6	2	5	2
Kantar [20]	17–23 Nov2021	1,424	–	24	22	18	11	11	6	–	8	2
INSA [2]	19–22 Nov2021	2,096	–	26	22	14	14	11	5.5	–	7.5	4
Forsa [6]	16–22 Nov2021	2,501	21	24	22	17	12	10	5	–	10	2
INSA [2]	15–19 Nov2021	1,501	–	26	21	15	13	12	5	–	8	5
Civey	10–17 Nov2021	10,077	–	26	23	15	12	11	5	–	8	3
Kantar [20]	10–16 Nov2021	1,433	–	24	21	18	12	11	6	–	8	3
INSA [2]	12–15 Nov2021	2,091	–	27	21	15	13	11.5	5.5	–	7	6
Forsa [6]	9–15 Nov2021	2,510	21	24	22	17	12	10	5	–	10	2
INSA [2]	8–12 Nov2021	1,202	–	26	22	15	13	11	5	–	8	4
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	9–11 Nov2021	1,257	16	28	20	16	13	11	5	–	7	8
Allensbach [8]	29 Oct–11 Nov2021	1,016	–	27	23	15	14	9.5	5.5	–	6	4
Civey	3–10 Nov2021	9,999	–	26	22	15	13	11	5	–	8	4
Kantar [20]	3–9 Nov2021	1,424	–	25	21	16	14	10	6	–	8	4
INSA [2]	5–8 Nov2021	2,112	–	26.5	20.5	16	13.5	10.5	5.5	–	7.7	6
Forsa [6]	2–8 Nov2021	2,502	–	25	22	16	14	9	5	–	9	3
INSA [2]	1–5 Nov2021	1,212	–	27	21	15	14	11	5	–	7	6
Wahlkreisprognose	31 Oct–5 Nov2021	1,200	–	28	20.5	15.5	14	10.5	4	–	7.5	7.5
GMS	1–4 Nov2021	1,005	–	26	21	16	15	10	4	–	8	5
Infratest dimap [14]	2–3 Nov2021	1,329	–	27	21	16	13	10	5	–	8	6
Civey	27 Oct–3 Nov2021	10,069	–	26	22	15	13	11	5	–	8	4
Kantar [20]	27 Oct–2 Nov2021	1,417	–	25	22	16	13	10	5	3	6	3
INSA [2]	29 Oct–1 Nov2021	2,140	–	27	20	16	13.5	11.5	5	–	7	7
Forsa [6]	26 Oct–1 Nov2021	2,501	–	25	21	16	15	9	5	–	9	4
INSA [2]	25–29 Oct2021	1,503	–	27	21	16	13	11	5	–	7	6
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	26–28 Oct2021	1,208	15	27	20	16	14	11	5	–	7	7
Infratest dimap [14]	26–27 Oct2021	1,239	–	26	22	16	13	10	4	–	9	4
Civey	20–27 Oct2021	10,050	–	25	21	15	14	12	5	–	8	4
Kantar [20]	19–26 Oct2021	1,422	–	25	21	17	14	11	5	–	7	4
INSA [2]	22–25 Oct2021	2,105	–	28	20	16	14	11	5	–	6	8
Forsa [6]	19–25 Oct2021	2,510	–	25	20	17	16	9	5	–	8	5
INSA [2]	18–22 Oct2021	1,205	–	27	20	17	14	11	4	–	7	7
Civey	13–20 Oct2021	10,028	–	25	20	15	15	11	6	–	8	5
Kantar [20]	13–19 Oct2021	1,424	–	25	21	16	13	11	5	–	9	4
INSA [2]	15–18 Oct2021	2,140	–	28	18.5	16	15	11.5	5	–	6	9.5
Forsa [6]	12–18 Oct2021	2,502	–	26	20	16	15	9	5	–	9	6
INSA [2]	11–15 Oct2021	1,195	–	28	19	16	13	11	4	–	9	9
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	12–14 Oct2021	1,329	14	28	19	17	13	11	5	–	7	9
Allensbach [8]	1–14 Oct2021	1,045	–	28	21	15	14	9.5	5	–	7.5	7
Civey	6–13 Oct2021	9,999	–	26	20	14	15	11	6	–	8	6
Kantar [20]	6–12 Oct2021	1,410	–	26	19	17	14	10	5	–	9	7
INSA [2]	8–11 Oct2021	2,101	–	28.5	19.5	16	14.5	11	4	–	6.5	9
Wahlkreisprognose	7–10 Oct2021	1,210	–	27	19	17.5	14	10	4	–	8.5	8
Forsa [6]	5–11 Oct2021	2,503	–	26	20	16	14	9	5	–	10	6
INSA [2]	4–8 Oct2021	1,509	–	28	20	15	14	10	5	–	8	8
Civey	29 Sep–6 Oct2021	10,009	–	28	19	15	14	11	6	–	7	9
Kantar [20]	28 Sep–5 Oct2021	1,985	–	26	20	17	13	10	5	3	6	6
INSA [2]	1–4 Oct2021	2,000	–	28	21	15.5	13.5	10	4.5	–	7.5	7
Forsa [6]	27 Sep–4 Oct2021	3,004	–	26	20	16	14	9	5	–	10	6
INSA [2]	27 Sep–1 Oct2021	1,254	–	28	21	16	12	10	5	–	8	7
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [5]	28–30 Sep2021	1,249	15	28	20	16	13	10	5	–	8	8
2021 federal election	26 Sep2021	–	23.4	25.7	24.2	14.7	11.4	10.4	4.9	2.4	6.3	1.5

CDU and CSU

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	SPD	CDU	Grüne	FDP	AfD	CSU	Linke	FW	BSW	Others	Lead
2025 federal election	23 Feb 2025	–	16.4	22.6	11.6	4.3	20.8	6.0	8.8	1.5	4.98	3.1	1.8
INSA [25]	20–21 Feb2025	2,005	15	23	12.5	4.5	21	6.5	7.5	–	5	5	2
INSA [25]	14–17 Feb2025	2,010	15	24	13	4.5	22	6	6.5	–	5	4	2
INSA [25]	7–10 Feb2025	2,006	15.5	23.5	13	4	22	6.5	6	–	5.5	4	1.5
INSA [25]	31 Jan–3 Feb2025	2,004	16	24.5	13	4.5	22	5.5	5	–	5.5	4	2.5
INSA [25]	24–27 Jan2025	2,006	15.5	23.5	12.5	4.5	22	6.5	4.5	–	6	5	1.5
INSA [25]	17–20 Jan2025	2,008	16	23.5	13	5	21.5	5.5	4	–	7	4.5	2
INSA [25]	10–13 Jan2025	2,005	15	24.5	13	4	22	6.5	3.5	–	6.5	5	2.5
INSA [25]	3–6 Jan2025	2,001	15.5	24.5	13.5	4	21.5	6.5	3	–	6.5	5	3
INSA [25]	27–30 Dec2024	2,004	16.5	24.5	12	3.5	20.5	6.5	4	–	7	5.5	4
INSA [25]	20–23 Dec2024	2,010	16	23.5	12.5	5	19.5	7.5	3	–	8	5	4
INSA [25]	13–16 Dec2024	2,002	16.5	24.5	11.5	5	19.5	7	2.5	–	8	5.5	5
INSA [26]	6–9 Dec2024	2,004	17	25.5	11.5	4.5	19.5	6	3	–	8	5	6
INSA [26]	29 Nov–2 Dec2024	2,003	16	25.5	13	4.5	18.5	6	3.5	–	7.5	5.5	7
INSA [26]	22–25 Nov2024	2,003	15	25.5	11	4.5	19.5	7	3.5	–	7.5	6.5	6
INSA [26]	15–18 Nov2024	2,008	16	24.5	11	4.5	19	7.5	3.5	–	7.5	6.5	5.5
INSA [26]	8–11 Nov2024	3,009	15.5	25.5	11.5	5	19.5	7	3.5	–	7	5.5	6
INSA [26]	1–4 Nov2024	2,005	15.5	24	10.5	4.5	18	8	3.5	–	8	8	6
INSA [26]	25–28 Oct2024	2,008	15	24.5	11	4	19	6.5	2.5	–	9	8.5	5.5
INSA [26]	18–21 Oct2024	2,006	16,5	23.5	10	4	19	7	2.5	–	9	8.5	4.5
INSA [26]	11–14 Oct2024	2,002	16	24.5	10	4	18.5	7	3.5	–	9	7.5	6
INSA [26]	4–7 Oct2024	2,010	16	24	10.5	4	20	7.5	2.5	–	8	7.5	4
INSA [26]	27–30 Sep2024	2,004	15	24.5	11	4	19	7	2.5	–	9.5	7.5	5.5
INSA [26]	20–23 Sep2024	2,002	15.5	25.5	9.5	3.5	20	6.5	2.5	–	10	7	5.5
INSA [26]	13–16 Sep2024	2,008	14	26	10	4.5	19.5	7	2.5	–	10	6.5	6.5
INSA [26]	6–9 Sep2024	2,010	14	25.5	10	4	19.5	7	2.5	–	10	7.5	6
INSA [26]	30 Aug–2 Sep2024	2,002	15	24.5	10.5	4.5	19	7	2.5	–	9.5	7.5	5.5
INSA [26]	23–26 Aug2024	2,004	15	24.5	11.5	5.5	18.5	7	3	–	9	6	6
INSA [26]	16–19 Aug2024	2,006	15.5	24	10.5	5	19	6.5	3	–	9.5	7	5
INSA [26]	9–12 Aug2024	2,008	15	23.5	10.5	5	18	7	3	–	9.5	8.5	5.5
INSA [26]	2–5 Aug2024	2,002	15	24	10.5	5	17	6.5	3	–	9.5	9.5	7
INSA [26]	26–29 Jul2024	2,006	15	24.5	10	5	18	5.5	3.5	–	9.5	9	6.5
INSA [26]	19–22 Jul2024	2,010	15	24.5	10.5	5	17	6.5	3.5	–	9	9	7.5
INSA [26]	12–15 Jul2024	2,500	15	24.5	11.5	5	18	6.5	3	–	8.5	8	6.5
INSA [26]	5–8 Jul2024	2,007	15	24	11	5.5	17.5	6.5	3	1.5	8.5	7.5	6.5
INSA [26]	28 Jun–1 Jul2024	2,006	15	24	12	5.5	17.5	5.5	2.5	2	8.5	7.5	6.5
INSA [26]	21–24 Jun2024	2,008	14.5	24.5	11.5	5	17.5	6	3	2	8.5	7.5	7
INSA [26]	14–17 Jun2024	2,010	15	24.5	11	5	17	6.5	3	2	8	8	7.5
INSA [26]	7–10 Jun2024	2,008	15.5	23	12	5	16	7	3	2.5	7.5	8.5	7
INSA [26]	31 May–3 Jun2024	2,002	16	24	12	5	15.5	6.5	3.5	2.5	7.5	7.5	8
INSA [26]	24–27 May2024	2,004	15	25	12	5	17	5.5	3	2.5	7	8	8
INSA [26]	17–21 May2024	2,010	16	23.5	12.5	5	17	6.5	3	3	7	6.5	6.5
INSA [26]	10–13 May2024	2,087	15.5	24.5	13	5	17	6	3.5	2.5	7	6	7.5
INSA [26]	3–6 May2024	2,006	15.5	23.5	12	5	18	7	3.5	2.5	7.5	5.5	5.5
Forsa	30 Apr–6 May2024	2,000	16	24.5	12	6	15	6.5	3	–	4	13	8.5
INSA [26]	26–29 Apr2024	2,004	16.5	23.5	12.5	5	18.5	6	3.5	2.5	7	5	5
INSA [26]	19–22 Apr2024	2,008	15	23.5	12.5	5	18.5	7	4	2.5	7	5	5
INSA [26]	12–15 Apr2024	2,006	16	23.5	13	6	18.5	6	3	2.5	6.5	5	5
INSA [26]	5–8 Apr2024	2,084	15	23.5	13	5	18.5	7	3.5	2.5	6.5	5.5	5
INSA [26]	28 Mar–2 Apr2024	2,004	15	23.5	12.5	5	19.5	6.5	3.5	2.5	6.5	5.5	4
INSA [26]	22–25 Mar2024	2,008	15.5	23.5	12.5	5	19.5	6.5	3.5	2.5	6.5	5	4
INSA [26]	15–18 Mar2024	2,002	16	23.5	12	5	19.5	6	3.5	2.5	6.5	5.5	4
INSA [26]	8–11 Mar2024	2,079	14.5	25.5	12.5	5.5	18.5	5.5	3.5	2.5	6.5	5.5	7
INSA [26]	1–4 Mar2024	2,007	14.5	24.5	13	5.5	19.5	6	3	2.5	6.5	5	5
INSA [26]	23–26 Feb2024	2,006	15.5	24	13	4.5	19	6.5	3	3	7.5	4	5
INSA [26]	16–19 Feb2024	2,007	14.5	24	12.5	4.5	19.5	6.5	3.5	3	7.5	4.5	4.5
INSA [26]	9–12 Feb2024	2,083	15	23.5	12.5	3.5	20.5	6.5	3.5	3	7.5	4.5	3
INSA [26]	2–5 Feb2024	2,004	15	24	12.5	4.5	20.5	6	3.5	3	7.5	3.5	3.5
INSA [26]	26–29 Jan2024	2,002	14.5	23.5	12.5	5	21	6.5	3.5	2.5	7	4	2.5
INSA [26]	19–22 Jan2024	2,006	13.5	23.5	12.5	5	21.5	7	3	2.5	–	11.5	2
INSA [26]	12–15 Jan2024	2,004	14	24	12	5	23	7	4	3	–	8	1
INSA [26]	5–8 Jan2024	2,008	16	25	12	5	23	7	4	3	–	5	2
INSA [26]	29 Dec–2 Jan2024	2,002	15	25	13	5	22.5	7	4	3	–	5.5	2.5
INSA [27]	22–27 Dec2023	2,000	15	25	12	5	23	7	4	3	–	6	2
INSA [27]	15–18 Dec2023	2,002	15,5	24.5	12.5	5	23	7	4	2.5	–	6	1.5
INSA [27]	8–11 Dec2023	2,008	16	23.5	12.5	6	22.5	6.5	4	3	–	6	1
INSA [27]	1–4 Dec2023	2,006	15.5	23	13	6	22.5	6.5	3.5	3	–	7	0.5
INSA [27]	24–27 Nov2023	2,007	15.5	24.5	12.5	6	22	6	4	3	–	6.5	2.5
INSA [27]	17–20 Nov2023	2,008	16.5	25.5	13	5.5	21	4.5	4.5	3	–	6.5	4.5
INSA [27]	10–13 Nov2023	2,008	16.5	24.5	13.5	5	21.5	6	4.5	3	–	5.5	3
INSA [27]	3–6 Nov2023	2,006	16.5	23	13.5	5.5	22	6.5	4.5	3	–	5.5	1
INSA [27]	27–30 Oct2023	2,010	16.5	23.5	13	5.5	21	7	4	3.5	–	6	2.5
INSA [27]	20–23 Oct2023	2,004	16.5	22	13	5.5	22	6.5	5	3.5	–	6	Tie
INSA [27]	13–16 Oct2023	2,006	16.5	21.5	13	6	23	6.5	4.5	4	–	5	1.5
INSA [27]	6–9 Oct2023	2,001	17	20.5	13.5	6	22.5	6.5	5	3	–	6	2
INSA [27]	29 Sep–2 Oct2023	2,010	18	21	13.5	7	22	5.5	5	2.5	–	5.5	1
INSA [27]	22–25 Sep2023	2,003	17.5	20.5	13.5	6.5	21.5	6.5	5	3	–	6	1
INSA [27]	15–18 Sep2023	2,008	17	21	14.5	6	21	5.5	5	3.5	–	6.5	Tie
INSA [27]	8–11 Sep2023	2,002	18	19.5	14	7	22	7	4.5	–	–	8	2.5
INSA [27]	1–4 Sep2023	2,010	17.5	20	13.5	7.5	21.5	6.5	4.5	–	–	9	1.5
INSA [27]	25–28 Aug2023	2,006	18	20.5	14.5	7	21	6	4.5	–	–	8.5	0.5
INSA [27]	18–21 Aug2023	2,008	18.5	19.5	14	8	20.5	7	5	–	–	7.5	1
INSA [27]	11–14 Aug2023	2,002	19.5	19.5	13.5	7	21	6.5	4.5	–	–	8.5	1.5
INSA [27]	4–7 Aug2023	2,004	19	22	14.5	7.5	20.5	5	4.5	–	–	7	1.5
INSA [27]	28–31 Jul2023	2,003	18.5	20	14	6.5	21.5	6.5	5	–	–	8	1.5
INSA [27]	21–24 Jul2023	2,006	18.5	20.5	14	7.5	21.5	6	4.5	–	–	7.5	1
INSA [27]	14–17 Jul2023	2,004	18	20	14	7	20.5	7	5	–	–	8.5	0.5
INSA [27]	7–10 Jul2023	2,008	19	21	14	7	20.5	5	5	–	–	8.5	0.5
INSA [27]	30 Jun–3 Jul2023	2,897	19	20.5	14.5	6.5	21	5	5	–	–	8.5	0.5
INSA [27]	23–26 Jun2023	2,004	19.5	20	13.5	6.5	20.5	6.5	4.5	–	–	9	0.5
INSA [27]	16–19 Jun2023	2,006	20	20.5	13.5	7.5	20	6	4.5	–	–	8	0.5
INSA [27]	9–12 Jun2023	2,003	20	21	13	8	19.5	6	4.5	–	–	8	1
INSA [27]	2–5 Jun2023	2,009	19	20.5	13.5	9	19	6	5	–	–	8	1.5
INSA [27]	26–30 May2023	2,004	20.5	23	13	8.5	18	5	4.5	–	–	7.5	2.5
INSA [27]	19–22 May2023	2,004	20.5	21	14	8.5	17	6.5	5	–	–	7.5	0.5
INSA [27]	12–15 May2023	2,010	20	22	14.5	8.5	16.5	6	5	–	–	7.5	2
INSA [27]	5–8 May2023	2,008	20	22	14	9	16.5	6	4.5	–	–	8	2
INSA [27]	28 Apr–2 May2023	2,006	21	21	15	8	16.5	6	4.5	–	–	8	Tie
INSA [27]	21–24 Apr2023	2,004	20	21	14.5	9	16	6.5	4.5	–	–	8.5	1
INSA [27]	14–17 Apr2023	2,008	21	20.5	15	8	16	7	4.5	–	–	8	0.5
INSA [27]	6–11 Apr2023	2,005	20	22	15.5	8	16	5.5	4.5	–	–	8.5	2
INSA [27]	31 Mar–3 Apr2023	2,007	20	22	15.5	7.5	16	6	4.5	–	–	8.5	2
INSA [27]	24–27 Mar2023	2,004	20.5	23	16	8	15.5	5	4	–	–	8	2.5
INSA [27]	17–20 Mar2023	2,006	21.5	22	15	7.5	16	6	5	–	–	7	0.5
INSA [27]	10–13 Mar2023	2,002	21.5	22	15.5	7.5	16	6.5	4	–	–	7	0.5
INSA [27]	3–6 Mar2023	2,007	20	23.5	15.5	7.5	15.5	6	5	–	–	7	3.5
INSA [27]	24–27 Feb2023	2,010	20.5	23.5	15.5	7.5	15.5	6	4.5	–	–	7	3
INSA [27]	17–20 Feb2023	2,006	21.5	24	15.5	7	15.5	5	5	–	–	6.5	2.5
INSA [27]	10–13 Feb2023	2,005	20	21	16	7.5	16	7	5	–	–	7.5	1
INSA [27]	3–6 Feb2023	2,008	21	20	16	8	15.5	7	5	–	–	7.5	1
INSA [27]	27–30 Jan2023	2,007	20.5	21	16	7.5	15	7.5	5	–	–	7.5	0.5
INSA [27]	20–23 Jan2023	2,009	20.5	22	16.5	7.5	15	6	4.5	–	–	8	1.5
INSA [27]	13–16 Jan2023	2,006	21	21	16.5	7.5	15	7	5	–	–	7	Tie
INSA [27]	6–9 Jan2023	2,006	20	21	17.5	7.5	15	6	5	–	–	8	1
INSA [27]	29 Dec–2 Jan2023	2,010	20	21	17.5	7.5	15	6	4.5	–	–	8.5	1
INSA [27]	16–19 Dec2022	2,005	21	22	17.5	7.5	14.5	5.5	4.5	–	–	7.5	1
INSA [28]	9–12 Dec2022	2,007	20	21.5	18	7	15.5	7	4.5	–	–	6.5	1.5
INSA [28]	3–5 Dec2022	2,008	20.5	22	17	7	14.5	6	5	–	–	8	1.5
INSA [28]	25–28 Nov2022	2,006	21	21	17.5	7	15	6	5	–	–	7.5	Tie
INSA [28]	18–21 Nov2022	2,004	20	22	17	7.5	15	6	5	–	–	7.5	2
INSA [28]	11–14 Nov2022	2,010	20.5	21	17.5	7	15	6.5	4.5	–	–	8	0.5
INSA [28]	4–7 Nov2022	2,007	21	21	17.5	8	14.5	6	4.5	–	–	7.5	Tie
INSA [28]	28–31 Oct2022	2,009	20.5	20	18	9	15	6	4.5	–	–	7	0.5
INSA [28]	21–24 Oct2022	2,007	20.5	20.5	17.5	8.5	15	6	4.5	–	–	7.5	Tie
INSA [28]	14–17 Oct2022	2,000	19.5	20.5	18.5	7.5	15.5	7	4.5	–	–	7	1
INSA [28]	7–10 Oct2022	2,005	19.5	20.5	19	7.5	15	7	5	–	–	6.5	1
INSA [28]	30 Sep–3 Oct2022	2,008	19	21.5	18.5	8	15	6	5.5	–	–	6.5	2.5
INSA [28]	23–26 Sep2022	2,102	18	21.5	19.5	8	15	6	5.5	–	–	6.5	2
INSA [28]	16–19 Sep2022	2,080	18.5	22	19	7.5	14	6.5	5.5	–	–	7	3
INSA [28]	9–12 Sep2022	2,039	18	22	20	8	13.5	6	5.5	–	–	7	2
INSA [28]	2–5 Sep2022	2,004	18	22	20.5	7.5	13.5	6	5.5	–	–	7	1.5
INSA [28]	26–29 Aug2022	2,138	19	22.5	20.5	8	13	5	5.5	–	–	6.5	2
INSA [28]	19–22 Aug2022	2,091	18.5	22	21	7.5	13	6	5.5	–	–	6.5	1
INSA [28]	12–15 Aug2022	2,146	19	22	22	8	12	6	5	–	–	6	Tie
INSA [28]	5–8 Aug2022	2,099	18	21	21.5	8	12.5	6	5.5	–	–	7.5	0.5
INSA [28]	29 Jul–1 Aug2022	2,144	18.5	20.5	22	8	12	6	5	–	–	8	1.5
INSA [28]	22–25 Jul2022	2,043	18.5	21.5	22	8	12	5	5	–	–	8	0.5
INSA [28]	15–18 Jul2022	2,062	18.5	21.5	22	8	12	5	4.5	–	–	8.5	0.5
INSA [28]	8–11 Jul2022	2,044	20	21.5	21	8.5	11	5.5	4.5	–	–	8	0.5
INSA [28]	1–4 Jul2022	2,066	19	23	21	9.5	11	5	4	–	–	7.5	2
INSA [28]	24–27 Jun2022	2,101	20	22	21.5	9	10.5	5	4	–	–	8	0.5
INSA [28]	17–20 Jun2022	2,063	19.5	21	21	9.5	10	7	4	–	–	8	Tie
INSA [28]	10–13 Jun2022	2,082	20	21.5	21	9.5	10.5	6	3.5	–	–	8	0.5
INSA [28]	3–7 Jun2022	2,055	20	21.5	21.5	9.5	10.5	5.5	3.5	–	–	8	Tie
INSA [28]	27–30 May2022	2,056	22	20.5	20.5	8.5	10	6.5	3.5	–	–	8.5	1.5
INSA [28]	20–23 May2022	2,100	22	22	20	8.5	10.5	6.5	3	–	–	7.5	Tie
INSA [28]	13–16 May2022	2,147	21.5	23	20.5	9	11	5	3	–	–	7	1.5
INSA [28]	6–9 May2022	2,086	22.5	21	19	10	10.5	6.5	3.5	–	–	7	1.5
INSA [28]	29 Apr–2 May2022	2,146	23	21	19	9.5	10.5	6	4.5	–	–	6.5	2
INSA [28]	22–25 Apr2022	2,056	24	20	18	9	11.5	6.5	4.5	–	–	6.5	4
INSA [28]	15–18 Apr2022	2,073	23.5	20	19	9	11	6	4.5	–	–	7	3.5
INSA [28]	8–11 Apr2022	2,061	25	20	17.5	9	11	7	4.5	–	–	6	5
INSA [28]	1–4 Apr2022	2,063	25	21	17.5	10.5	10.5	5	4.5	–	–	6	4
INSA [28]	25–28 Mar2022	2,070	25	21	16.5	10	10.5	5	5.5	–	–	6.5	4
INSA [28]	18–21 Mar2022	2,122	24.5	20.5	16.5	11	11	6	4.5	–	–	6	4
INSA [28]	11–14 Mar2022	2,073	25	19.5	15.5	10.5	10.5	6	5	–	–	8	5.5
INSA [28]	4–7 Mar2022	2,103	25	19	15.5	11	10.5	5.5	6	–	–	7.5	6
INSA [28]	18–21 Feb2022	1,539	23	22	14.5	12.5	11	5	6	–	–	6	1
INSA [28]	11–14 Feb2022	2,141	22.5	21	15	12	12	5	6	–	–	6.5	1.5
INSA [28]	4–7 Feb2022	2,067	23	20	15	12	11	6	7	–	–	6	3
INSA [28]	28–31 Jan2022	2,147	24	20	15	12.5	10	5	6.5	–	–	7	4
INSA [28]	21–24 Jan2022	2,146	26	19	15	11.5	11	5	6	–	–	6.5	7
INSA [28]	14–17 Jan2022	2,130	26	17	15.5	12	12	5.5	6	–	–	6.5	9
INSA [28]	7–10 Jan2022	2,107	26.5	18	15	12	12	5	5	–	–	6.5	8.5
INSA [28]	31 Dec–3 Jan2022	2,060	26.5	17	15.5	11	11.5	6	6	–	–	6.5	9.5
INSA [28]	17–20 Dec2021	2,075	27.5	17	14.5	13	11.5	4.5	5.5	–	–	6.5	10.5
INSA	10–13 Dec2021	2,221	27	17	14.5	13	11.5	5	5.5	–	–	6.5	10
INSA	3–6 Dec2021	2,119	26	17	15	13.5	11.5	5	5.5	–	–	6.5	9
INSA	26–29 Nov2021	2,129	25	17	16	14	11	4	5.5	–	–	7.5	8
INSA	19–22 Nov2021	2,096	26	18	14	14	11	4	5.5	–	–	7.5	8
INSA	12–15 Nov2021	2,091	27	16.5	15	13	11.5	4.5	5.5	–	–	7	10.5
INSA	5–8 Nov2021	2,112	26.5	16.5	16	13.5	10.5	4	5.5	–	–	7.5	10
INSA	22–25 Oct2021	2,105	28	16	16	14	11	4	5	–	–	6	12
INSA	15–18 Oct2021	2,140	28	13.5	16	15	11.5	5	5	–	–	6	12
INSA	8–11 Oct2021	2,101	28.5	14	16	14.5	11	5.5	4	–	–	6.5	12.5
INSA	1–4 Oct2021	2,000	28	15	15.5	13.5	10	6	4.5	–	–	7.5	12.5
2021 federal election	26 Sep2021	–	25.7	19.0	14.7	11.4	10.4	5.2	4.9	2.4	–	6.3	6.8

Scenario polls

New party scenarios

Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht ^[b]

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Abs.	SPD	Union	Grüne	FDP	AfD	Linke	FW	BSW	Others	Don't Know	Lead
Wahlkreisprognose	2–4 Jan2024	1,500	24	13	28.5	11.5	6	23.5	3	2	6	6.5	–	5
Wahlkreisprognose	25–27 Nov2023	1,200	25	14.5	28	12.5	5.5	23.5	3	–	6	7	–	4.5
INSA	9–10 Nov2023	1,004	–	17	24	13	5	17	2	3	14	5	–	7
INSA	26–27 Oct2023	1,005	–	15	29	12	5	17	4	–	14	2	–	12
Wahlkreisprognose	23–25 Oct2023	1,300	24	15.5	26.5	12.5	5.5	18	3	–	13	6	–	8.5
INSA	20–23 Oct2023	2,004	–	15.5	26.5	12.5	5.5	18	4	–	12	6	–	8.5
INSA	28–31 Jul2023	2,003	–	17	23	14	6	16	3	–	15	6	–	6
YouGov	14–19 Jul2023	2,317	5	14	25	12	5	19	5	–	2	5	9	6
Wahlkreisprognose	27 Feb–1 Mar2023	1,419	25	22	26	14	4	13	2	–	14	5	–	4
Wahlkreisprognose	20–22 Sep2022	1,700	–	20	24	17	7	11	3	–	10	8	–	4

Boris Palmer list

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Abs.	SPD	Union	Grüne	FDP	AfD	Linke	Liste Palmer	Others	Don't Know	Lead
INSA	28–31 Jul2023	2,003	–	19	22	15	8	20	5	5	6	–	2

Leadership scenarios

Boris Pistorius as SPD chancellor candidate

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	SPD	Union	Grüne	FDP	AfD	Linke	FW	BSW	Others	Lead
Forsa	19–25 Nov2024	2,500	21	30	11	4	17	3	–	4	10	9
Wahlkreisprognose	14–20 Nov2024	2,000	27.5	27.5	10.5	2	17	2	3	5.5	5	Tie
Wahlkreisprognose	25–27 Nov2023	1,200	24	23	9	4	23	2	–	7	8	1
Wahlkreisprognose	26–27 Jul2023	1,525	27.5	17	13.5	6	20	3.5	3	–	9.5	7.5

Olaf Scholz as SPD chancellor candidate

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	SPD	Union	Grüne	FDP	AfD	Linke	FW	BSW	Others	Lead
Wahlkreisprognose	14–20 Nov2024	2,000	17.5	31	12	2.5	18	2	2	10	5	13

Friedrich Merz as CDU/CSU chancellor candidate

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	SPD	Union	Grüne	FDP	AfD	Linke	FW	BSW	Others	Lead
Wahlkreisprognose	25–27 Nov2023	1,200	15.5	26.5	10	5	24.5	3	–	6.5	9	2
Wahlkreisprognose	26–27 Jul2023	1,525	22.5	20	14	6.5	20	4	5	–	8	2.5

Hendrik Wüst as CDU/CSU chancellor candidate

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	SPD	Union	Grüne	FDP	AfD	Linke	FW	Others	Lead
Wahlkreisprognose	26–27 Jul2023	1,525	21.5	23	13.5	5	22	4.5	2	8.5	1.5

Markus Söder as CDU/CSU chancellor candidate

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	SPD	Union	Grüne	FDP	AfD	Linke	FW	Others	Lead
Wahlkreisprognose	26–27 Jul2023	1,525	21	28	15	6.5	19.5	3.5	1	5.5	7

Sahra Wagenknecht as Linke lead candidate

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	SPD	Union	Grüne	FDP	AfD	Linke	FW	Others	Lead
Wahlkreisprognose	26–27 Jul2023	1,525	21	21	15	7	16	12	2	6	Tie

Other scenarios

National-wide CSU

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	SPD	CDU	Grüne	FDP	AfD	CSU	Linke	Others	Lead
INSA	28–31 Jul2023	2,003	17	20	15	6	20	10	5	8	Tie

CDU/CSU open for cooperation with AfD

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	SPD	Union	Grüne	FDP	AfD	Linke	FW	Others	Lead
Wahlkreisprognose	26–27 Jul2023	1,525	25	16.5	14.5	9	19	3.5	6	6.5	6

By state

Baden-Württemberg

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	CDU	SPD	Grüne	FDP	AfD	Linke	BSW	Others	Lead
2025 federal election	23 Feb2025	–	31.6	14.2	13.6	5.6	19.8	6.8	4.1	4.3	11.8
Infratest dimap	5–10 Feb 2025	1,160	33	12	18	5	18	5	4	5	15
Infratest dimap	5–10 Dec 2024	1,156	34	15	18	5	16	–	4	8	16
INSA	25 Nov–2 Dec 2024	1,000	33	13	18	6	18	3	7	2	15
2021 federal election	26 Sep2021	–	24.8	21.6	17.2	15.3	9.6	3.3	–	8.2	3.2

Bavaria

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	CSU	SPD	Grüne	FDP	AfD	Free Voters	Linke	BSW	Others	Lead
2025 federal election	23 Feb2025	–	37.2	11.6	12.0	4.2	19.0	4.3	5.7	3.1	2.9	18.2
GMS	16–19 Feb2025	1,026	42	10	11	4	19	5	3	2	4	23
GMS	4–7 Feb2025	1,017	42	9	12	3	19	5	2	3	5	23
Infratest dimap	9–13 Jan2025	1,179	42	10	14	4	16	5	–	–	9	26
GMS	27 Dec–2 Jan2025	1,025	44	9	11	3	17	4	2	4	6	27
GMS	27 Nov–2 Dec2024	1,043	45	9	10	3	16	4	2	4	7	29
Infratest dimap	20–25 Nov2024	1,156	45	9	13	3	17	4	–	3	6	28
GMS	7–11 Nov2024	1,035	43	9	9	3	16	7	1	5	7	27
GMS	11–16 Sep2024	1,048	42	9	10	3	15	8	1	5	7	27
Wahlkreisprognose	2–5 Dec2022	1,944	33	18	15	6	12	8	2	–	6	15
Forsa	23 May–3 Jun2022	1,049	36	12	22	8	8	–	2	–	12	14
Forsa	27 Apr–13 May2022	1,235	34	14	21	8	8	7	2	–	6	13
2021 federal election	26 Sep2021	–	31.7	18.0	14.1	10.5	9.0	7.5	2.8	–	6.4	13.7

Berlin

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	SPD	Grüne	CDU	Linke	AfD	FDP	BSW	Others	Lead
2025 federal election	23 Feb2025	–	15.1	16.8	18.3	19.9	15.2	3.8	10.6	4.2	1.6
Infratest dimap	14–18 Nov2024	1,179	13	22	24	5	17	4	7	8	2
2021 federal election	26 Sep2021	–	22.2	22.0	17.2	11.5	9.4	8.1	–	9.6	0.2

Brandenburg

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	SPD	AfD	CDU	FDP	Grüne	Linke	BSW	Others	Lead
2025 federal election	23 Feb2025	–	14.8	32.5	18.1	3.2	6.6	10.7	10.7	3.4	14.4
INSA	20–27 Jan2025	1,000	20	28	19	3	7	6	11	6	8
Infratest dimap	4–7 Dec2024	1,183	19	30	21	–	7	4	11	8	9
Forsa	6–10 Jan2024	1,007	17	33	20	4	8	6	3	9	13
Wahlkreisprognose	4–11 Sep2022	1,100	25	25	14	5	12.5	9	–	9.5	Tie
Wahlkreisprognose	9–17 May2022	1,001	35.5	16.5	15.5	4	14	5.5	–	9	19
2021 federal election	26 Sep2021	–	29.5	18.1	15.3	9.3	9.0	8.5	–	10.3	11.4

Hamburg

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	SPD	Grüne	CDU	FDP	Linke	AfD	BSW	Others	Lead
2025 federal election	23 Feb2025	–	22.7	19.3	20.7	4.5	14.4	10.9	4.0	3.4	5
Trend Research	16–20 Jan2025	874	27	22	19	4	6	13	4	6	5
Trend Research	5–10 Dec2024	880	28	19	19	5	6	11	6	6	9
Forsa	24–28 Oct2024	1,017	21	22	25	4	6	8	5	9	3
2021 federal election	26 Sep2021	–	29.7	24.9	15.4	11.4	6.7	5.0	–	6.8	4.8

Hesse

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	SPD	CDU	Grüne	FDP	AfD	Linke	BSW	Others	Lead
2025 federal election	23 Feb2025	–	18.4	28.9	12.6	5.0	17.8	8.7	4.4	4.2	10.5
Forsa	22 Nov–11 Dec2024	1,033	17	33	14	4	17	4	3	8	16
2021 federal election	26 Sep2021	–	27.6	22.8	15.8	12.8	8.8	4.3	–	7.9	4.8

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	SPD	AfD	CDU	Linke	FDP	Grüne	BSW	Others	Lead
2025 federal election	23 Feb2025	–	12.4	35.0	17.8	12.0	3.2	5.4	10.6	3.6	17.2
Forsa	28 Jan–3 Feb2025	1,004	15	30	20	7	3	9	11	5	10
Infratest dimap	20–25 Jan2025	1,185	15	31	21	6	3	8	11	5	10
Infratest dimap	23–28 Oct2024	1,153	16	26	25	4	–	5	15	9	1
Infratest dimap	2–7 May2024	1,177	19	23	23	6	–	8	12	9	Tie
Forsa	25 Apr–3 May2024	1,005	15	27	23	6	3	7	13	6	4
Forsa	10–16 Jan2024	1,002	15	32	22	8	3	8	5	7	10
Infratest dimap	13–16 Sep2023	1,182	21	32	21	7	4	8	–	7	11
Forsa	18–23 Jan2023	1,004	20	23	22	11	4	10	–	10	1
Infratest dimap	13–18 Oct2022	1,168	25	24	20	10	4	9	–	8	1
Infratest dimap	1–4 Jun2022	1,183	25	18	23	9	5	12	–	8	2
Forsa	14–18 Mar2022	1,001	29	16	21	10	6	9	–	9	8
2021 federal election	26 Sep2021	–	29.1	18.0	17.4	11.1	8.2	7.8	–	8.4	11.1

North Rhine-Westphalia

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	SPD	CDU	Grüne	FDP	AfD	Linke	BSW	Others	Lead
2025 federal election	23 Feb2025	–	20.0	30.1	12.4	4.4	16.8	8.3	4.1	3.8	11.1
Infratest dimap	13–16 Jan2025	1,150	18	34	18	4	15	–	–	11	16
Forsa	26 Nov–4 Dec2024	1,508	18	36	14	3	14	2	4	9	18
Forsa	23 Jul–1 Aug2024	1,060	18	34	13	5	14	2	5	9	16
Forsa	5–14 Mar2024	1,502	18	32	16	5	14	3	4	8	14
Forsa	29 May–7 Jun2023	1,506	23	30	15	7	15	3	–	7	7
Forsa	27–28 Mar2023	1,005	22	32	18	6	10	4	–	8	10
Forsa	21–26 Sep2022	1,511	21	30	22	6	10	4	–	7	9
Wahlkreisprognose	27–30 Jun2022	1,040	25.5	25	22	8	8.5	3	–	8	0.5
Forsa	16 Feb2022	1,008	25	30	25	6	6	2	–	6	5
Forsa	26 Jan–2 Feb2022	2,006	28	25	18	10	8	4	–	7	3
Forsa	26 Nov–7 Dec2021	2,009	29	23	18	12	7	4	–	7	6
2021 federal election	26 Sep2021	–	29.1	26.0	16.1	11.4	7.3	3.7	–	6.5	3.1

Rhineland-Palatinate

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	SPD	CDU	Grüne	FDP	AfD	FW	Linke	BSW	Others	Lead
2025 federal election	23 Feb2025	–	18.6	30.6	10.4	4.6	20.1	2.1	6.5	4.2	2.8	10.5
Infratest dimap	5–10 Feb 2025	1,155	19	33	13	4	18	–	4	4	5	14
Infratest dimap	5–10 Dec 2024	1,175	19	35	12	4	16	3	–	4	7	16
Wahlkreisprognose	11–18 May2022	1,042	30	30.5	19	5	5	–	1.5	–	9	0.5
2021 federal election	26 Sep2021	–	29.4	24.7	12.6	11.7	9.2	3.6	3.3	–	8.8	4.7

Saxony

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	AfD	SPD	CDU	FDP	Linke	Grüne	BSW	Others	Lead
2025 federal election	23 Feb2025	–	37.3	8.5	19.7	3.2	11.3	6.5	9.0	4.4	17.6
Forsa	7–10 Jan2024	1,507	36	9	23	4	6	8	4	7	13
2021 federal election	26 Sep2021	–	24.6	19.3	17.2	11.0	9.3	8.6	–	9.9	5.3

Saxony-Anhalt

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	SPD	CDU	AfD	Linke	FDP	Grüne	BSW	Others	Lead
2025 federal election	23 Feb2025	–	11.0	19.2	37.1	10.8	3.1	4.4	11.2	3.3	17.9
Wahlkreisprognose	21–29 Jan2024	1,000	12	20	28	5	5	5	17	8	8
Wahlkreisprognose	13–21 Feb2022	1,005	21.5	21.5	19.5	13	7.5	7.5	–	9.5	Tie
2021 federal election	26 Sep2021	–	25.4	21.0	19.6	9.6	9.5	6.5	–	8.4	4.4

Schleswig-Holstein

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	SPD	CDU	Grüne	FDP	AfD	Linke	BSW	Others	Lead
2025 federal election	23 Feb2025	–	18.8	27.6	14.9	4.7	16.3	7.8	3.4	6.5	8.8
Wahlkreisprognose	10–19 Feb2022	2,000	28	22.5	22	10	6	4.5	–	7	5.5
2021 federal election	26 Sep2021	–	28.0	22.0	18.3	12.5	6.8	3.6	–	8.7	6.0

Thuringia

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	AfD	SPD	CDU	Linke	FDP	Grüne	BSW	Others	Lead
2025 federal election	23 Feb2025	–	38.6	8.8	18.6	15.2	2.8	4.2	9.4	2.5	20.0
Forsa	6–10 Jan2024	1,253	36	12	23	9	3	6	3	8	13
Wahlkreisprognose	5–11 Dec2022	1,016	32	19.5	18.5	8.5	5	7.5	–	9	12.5
Wahlkreisprognose	3–4 Apr2022	994	22.5	27	18	8	6	8.5	–	10	4.5
2021 federal election	26 Sep2021	–	24.0	23.4	16.9	11.4	9.0	6.5	–	8.7	0.6

By Western and Eastern Germany

Western Germany

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	SPD	Union	Grüne	FDP	AfD	Linke	FW	BSW	Others	Lead
2025 federal election	23 Feb2025	–	17.6	30.6	12.7	4.6	17.9	7.9	1.6	3.9	3.2	12.7
YouGov	17–20 Feb2025	1,305 in West Germany	18	31	14	4	17	7	–	4	5	13
YouGov	14–17 Feb2025	1,655 in West Germany	18	29	13	4	18	8	–	4	5	11
YouGov	7–10 Feb2025	1,642 in West Germany	17	32	14	4	18	6	–	4	6	14
INSA	7–10 Feb2025	2,006 in all of Germany	17	32	14	4	20	5	–	4	4	12
YouGov	31 Jan–4 Feb2025	1,720 in West Germany	19	31	13	4	19	5	–	5	5	12
YouGov	24–27 Jan2025	1,397 in West Germany	16	31	14	3	20	4	–	5	5	11
YouGov	17–20 Jan2025	1,464 in West Germany	20	30	15	4	17	3	–	5	6	10
YouGov	10–14 Jan2025	1,389 in West Germany	20	31	14	3	20	3	–	4	5	11
YouGov	3–6 Jan2025	1,528 in West Germany	18	31	15	5	19	2	–	4	6	12
YouGov	29 Nov–3 Dec2024	1,493 in West Germany	19	32	14	4	17	2	1	5	6	13
YouGov	8–12 Nov2024	1,442 in West Germany	15	35	14	5	16	2	1	5	6	19
INSA	9–12 Aug2024	2,008 in all of Germany	16	32	12	5	16	2	–	8	9	16
YouGov	31 May–5 Jun2024	1,492 in West Germany	15	32	12	4	16	3	2	7	8	16
INSA	22–27 Dec2023	2,000 in all of Germany	16	34	13	5	20	3	–	–	9	14
Forsa	30 May–5 Jun2023	2,505 in all of Germany	19	30	16	7	13	5	–	–	10	11
INSA	23–26 Sep2022	2,102 in all of Germany	19	28	21	8	12	5	–	–	7	9
2021 federal election	26 Sep2021	–	26.1	25.6	15.9	11.9	8.2	3.7	2.5	–	6.1	0.5

Eastern Germany

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	SPD	AfD	CDU	Linke	FDP	Grüne	FW	BSW	Others	Lead
2025 federal election	23 Sep2025	–	10.9	34.6	18.4	12.8	3.1	6.5	1.3	9.9	2.5	16.2
YouGov	17–20 Feb2025	376 in East Germany	11	31	22	10	4	9	–	9	5	4
YouGov	14–17 Feb2025	476 in East Germany	12	27	23	12	5	7	–	9	5	4
YouGov	7–10 Feb2025	441 in East Germany	14	31	19	9	3	8	–	11	5	12
INSA	7–10 Feb2025	2,006 in all of Germany	11	32	22	8	3	9	–	11	4	10
YouGov	31 Jan–4 Feb2025	461 in East Germany	13	32	20	9	4	10	–	10	4	12
YouGov	24–27 Jan2025	384 in East Germany	11	33	22	8	3	8	–	9	5	11
YouGov	17–20 Jan2025	413 in East Germany	15	27	21	6	5	11	–	8	7	6
YouGov	10–14 Jan2025	345 in East Germany	10	26	26	6	4	11	–	12	6	Tie
YouGov	3–6 Jan2025	380 in East Germany	10	32	19	6	4	11	–	13	6	13
YouGov	29 Nov–3 Dec2024	386 in East Germany	13	28	20	6	3	9	1	16	4	8
YouGov	8–12 Nov2024	363 in East Germany	11	31	26	6	4	7	1	11	3	5
INSA	9–12 Aug2024	2,008 in all of Germany	11	28	22	5	5	6	–	15	8	6
YouGov	31 May–5 Jun2024	402 in East Germany	10	26	19	5	2	10	–	19	8	7
INSA	22–27 Dec2023	2,000 in all of Germany	12	36	24	7	4	8	–	–	9	12
Verian	24 Oct–15 Nov2023	830 in East Germany	12	32	24	9	4	9	–	–	10	8
Forsa	30 May–5 Jun2023	2,505 in all of Germany	16	32	23	8	6	6	–	–	9	9
INSA	17 Apr–5 May2023	7,618 in all of Germany	20	26	23	9	8	10	–	–	4	3
INSA	23–26 Sep2022	2,102 in all of Germany	15	27	26	8	7	14	–	–	3	1
2021 federal election	26 Sep2021	–	24.1	20.5	16.8	10.5	9.5	9.3	2.1	–	7.2	3.6

Chancellor polling

Chancellor candidates and lead candidates

These following polls gauge voters' opinions on the parties' Chancellor candidates: Olaf Scholz for the Social Democratic Party, Friedrich Merz for CDU/CSU (Union), Robert Habeck for Alliance 90/The Greens, Alice Weidel for the Alternative for Germany and Sahra Wagenknecht for the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance as well as the lead candidate of the Free Democratic Party, Christian Lindner. Before their nominations they were also compared with each other as possible candidates in previous polls.

Scholz vs. Merz vs. Habeck vs. Weidel

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Scholz SPD	Merz Union	Habeck Grüne	Weidel AfD	None
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	23 Feb2025	–	19	34	17	19	11
INSA	20–21 Feb2025	2,005	15	25	16	22	22
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	19–20 Feb2025	1,349	18	32	21	14	15
Forsa	17–20 Feb2025	2,002	16	26	21	15	22
Forsa	11–17 Feb2025	2,501	17	25	23	14	21
INSA	13–14 Feb2025	1,005	15	24	15	21	25
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	11–13 Feb2025	1,348	17	33	24	14	12
Forsa	4–10 Feb2025	2,502	17	24	23	15	21
INSA	6–7 Feb2025	1,003	16	24	14	20	26
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	4–6 Feb2025	1,341	18	32	24	13	13
INSA	31 Jan–3 Feb2025	2,004	16	21	14	21	28
Forsa	28 Jan–3 Feb2025	2,503	16	22	22	16	24
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	27–29 Jan2025	1,428	20	30	24	13	13
Forsa	21–27 Jan2025	2,504	16	25	22	16	21
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	21–23 Jan2025	1,345	16	31	25	15	13
Forsa	14–20 Jan2025	2,502	16	23	23	16	22
INSA	16–17 Jan2025	1,004	16	23	15	22	24
Forsa	7–13 Jan2025	2,502	17	23	23	16	21
INSA	9–10 Jan2025	1,002	14	21	14	21	30
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	7–9 Jan2025	1,433	14	27	27	15	17
INSA	23–27 Dec2024	1,002	16	20	14	21	29
INSA	18–19 Dec2024	1,005	15	20	14	24	27
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	17–19 Dec2024	1,362	16	29	25	16	14
INSA	12–13 Dec2024	1,001	16	21	13	21	29
Forsa	3–9 Dec2024	2,501	17	25	20	16	22
INSA	5–6 Dec2024	1,002	15	21	14	18	32
INSA	8–11 Nov2024	3,009	13	20	13	17	37
INSA	11–14 Oct2024	2,002	23	23	12	19	23
Forsa	20–26 Jun2023	2,506	27	24	17	10	22

Scholz vs. Merz

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Scholz SPD	Merz Union	Neither
INSA	18–19 Feb2025	2,503	28	36	36
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	11–13 Feb2025	1,348	45	46	9
Wahlkreisprognose	11–13 Feb2025	1,700	22	36	42
INSA	6–7 Feb2025	1,003	31	41	28
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	4–6 Feb2025	1,341	43	48	9
Wahlkreisprognose	1–3 Feb2025	1,900	25	28	47
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	27–29 Jan2025	1,428	45	45	10
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	21–23 Jan2025	1,345	42	46	12
Wahlkreisprognose	21–23 Jan2025	1,500	27	31	42
YouGov	17–20 Jan2025	2,194	34	36	30
Forsa	14–20 Jan2025	2,502	23	26	51
Wahlkreisprognose	13–16 Jan2025	2,000	30	30	40
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	7–9 Jan2025	1,433	41	44	15
Wahlkreisprognose	21–28 Dec2024	2,000	27	27	46
Forsa	17–20 Dec2024	2,008	24	28	48
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	17–19 Dec2024	1,362	43	44	13
Infratest dimap	16–18 Dec2024	1,336	31	43	26
Forsa	10–16 Dec2024	2,501	26	26	48
Forsa	3–9 Dec2024	2,501	27	27	46
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	3–5 Dec2024	1,433	43	45	12
Wahlkreisprognose	2–5 Dec2024	2,000	26	27	47
INSA	28–29 Nov2024	1,001	33	35	32
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	19–21 Nov2024	1,399	39	44	17
Wahlkreisprognose	14–20 Nov2024	2,000	20	27	53
Forsa	29 Oct–4 Nov2024	2,500	23	29	48
Forsa	22–28 Oct2024	2,503	24	29	47
Forsa	15–21 Oct2024	2,500	24	28	48
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	15–17 Oct2024	1,249	37	48	15
Forsa	8–14 Oct2024	2,501	24	28	48
Forsa	1–7 Oct2024	2,001	25	27	48
Forsa	24–30 Sep2024	2,501	26	27	47
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	24–26 Sep2024	1.348	37	43	20
INSA	19–23 Sep2024	1,001	27	34	39
Forsa	17–23 Sep2024	2,500	24	28	48
INSA	18–19 Sep2024	1,001	30	30	40
Forsa	10–16 Sep2024	2,501	26	26	48
INSA	12–13 Sep2024	1,004	21	25	54
Forsa	3–9 Sep2024	2,500	24	28	48
Forsa	27 Aug–2 Sep2024	2,508	23	27	50
Forsa	20–26 Aug2024	2,501	25	25	50
Forsa	13–19 Aug2024	2,503	26	26	48
Forsa	6–12 Aug2024	2,502	27	27	46
INSA	8–9 Aug2024	1,004	23	35	42
Forsa	30 Jul–5 Aug2024	2,500	28	28	44
Forsa	23–29 Jul2024	2,501	27	27	46
Forsa	16–22 Jul2024	2,504	26	29	45
Forsa	9–15 Jul2024	2,503	26	29	45
Forsa	2–8 Jul2024	2,504	25	28	47
Forsa	25 Jun–1 Jul2024	2,506	27	28	45
Forsa	18–24 Jun2024	2,505	27	29	44
Forsa	11–17 Jun2024	2,504	28	30	42
Forsa	4–10 Jun2024	2,505	30	28	42
Forsa	28 May–3 Jun2024	2,506	31	28	41
Forsa	21–27 May2024	2,503	33	31	36
Wahlkreisprognose	13–19 May2024	2,500	26	31	43
Forsa	8–13 May2024	1,503	32	29	39
Wahlkreisprognose	18–20 Mar2024	1,300	26	26	48
Wahlkreisprognose	21–22 Feb2024	1,300	23	25	52
INSA	25–26 Jan2024	1,001	21	28	51
Wahlkreisprognose	22–24 Jan2024	1,366	21	32	47
Forsa	9–15 Jan2024	1,502	27	28	45
INSA	4–5 Jan2024	1,004	23	26	51
Wahlkreisprognose	2–4 Jan2024	1,500	17	34	49
INSA	14–15 Dec2023	1,001	17	18	65
Forsa	28 Nov–4 Dec2023	2,501	36	32	32
Wahlkreisprognose	25–27 Nov2023	1,200	19	29	52
Wahlkreisprognose	23–25 Oct2023	1,300	25	24	51
Wahlkreisprognose	24–25 Sep2023	1,200	27	24	49
INSA	7–8 Sep2023	1,001	23	15	62
Wahlkreisprognose	22–27 Aug2023	1,200	23	20	57
Wahlkreisprognose	26–27 Jul2023	1,525	26	24	50
Wahlkreisprognose	22–25 Jun2023	1,399	31	21	48
INSA	15–16 Jun2023	1,003	25	16	59
Wahlkreisprognose	1–2 Jun2023	1,100	28	27	45
Wahlkreisprognose	26–30 Apr2023	1,400	36	30	34
Wahlkreisprognose	23–26 Mar2023	1,200	33	21	46
Wahlkreisprognose	27 Feb–1 Mar2023	1,419	33	20	47
Wahlkreisprognose	26–27 Jan2023	1,421	33	19	48
Wahlkreisprognose	15–16 Jan2023	1,500	29	25	46
Wahlkreisprognose	7–9 Dec2022	1,500	38	21	41
Wahlkreisprognose	7–8 Nov2022	1,300	37	21	42
Wahlkreisprognose	18–21 Oct2022	1,910	36	24	40
Wahlkreisprognose	3–6 Oct2022	1,923	36	29	35
Wahlkreisprognose	20–22 Sep2022	1,700	36	24	40
Wahlkreisprognose	16–18 Aug2022	1,433	40	13	47
Wahlkreisprognose	6–12 Aug2022	2,920	42	13	45
Wahlkreisprognose	19–20 Jul2022	1,400	46	16	38
Forsa	12–18 Jul2022	2,501	40	18	42
Forsa	5–11 Jul2022	2,503	43	17	40
Forsa	28 Jun–4 Jul2022	2,502	43	17	40
Forsa	21–27 Jun2022	2,500	42	19	39
Wahlkreisprognose	23–26 Jun2022	2,430	46	15	39
Forsa	14–20 Jun2022	2,504	39	20	41
Forsa	7–13 Jun2022	2,511	38	21	41
Wahlkreisprognose	7–8 Jun2022	1,603	46	16	38
Forsa	31 May–3 Jun2022	2,002	41	20	39
Wahlkreisprognose	30 May–1 Jun2022	1,500	45	18	37
Forsa	24–30 May2022	2,004	39	20	41
Forsa	17–23 May2022	2,505	41	19	40
INSA	20 May2022	1,003	26	15	59
Wahlkreisprognose	15–16 May2022	1,302	42	26	32
Forsa	10–16 May2022	2,502	42	19	39
Wahlkreisprognose	8–9 May2022	1,610	46	26	28
Forsa	3–9 May2022	2,501	42	18	40
Forsa	26 Apr–2 May2022	2,508	43	19	38
Forsa	19–25 Apr2022	2,507	42	18	40
Wahlkreisprognose	23 Apr2022	1,007	45	16	39
Forsa	12–14 Apr2022	1,501	43	18	39
Forsa	5–11 Apr2022	2,500	42	18	40
Wahlkreisprognose	3–4 Apr2022	2,450	51	17	32
Forsa	29 Mar–4 Apr2022	2,508	43	18	39
Forsa	22–28 Mar2022	2,507	42	20	38
Forsa	15–21 Mar2022	2,501	44	20	36
Wahlkreisprognose	18–20 Mar2022	3,923	51.5	21.5	27
Forsa	8–14 Mar2022	2,502	46	19	35
Forsa	1–7 Mar2022	2,501	48	19	33
Forsa	24–28 Feb2022	1,500	45	20	35
Wahlkreisprognose	24–27 Feb2022	2,030	49	19	32
Forsa	15–21 Feb2022	2,500	42	20	38
Wahlkreisprognose	13–15 Feb2022	1,220	43	25	32
Forsa	8–14 Feb2022	2,504	40	21	39
Forsa	1–7 Feb2022	2,502	40	22	38
Wahlkreisprognose	2–3 Feb2022	2,330	42	31	27
Forsa	25–31 Jan2022	2,501	43	21	36
Forsa	18–24 Jan2022	2,502	48	19	33
Forsa	11–17 Jan2022	2,504	48	17	35
Wahlkreisprognose	11–12 Jan2022	1,030	54	19	27
Forsa	3–10 Jan2022	3,003	49	18	33
Forsa	14–20 Dec2021	2,501	50	18	32
Wahlkreisprognose	18–19 Dec2021	1,120	55	20	25
Forsa	23–29 Nov2021	2,509	45	18	37
Forsa	16–22 Nov2021	2,501	45	19	36
Forsa	9–15 Nov2021	2,510	46	19	35
Wahlkreisprognose	11–12 Nov2021	1,004	44	21	35
Forsa	2–8 Nov2021	2,502	52	17	31

Merz vs. Habeck

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Merz Union	Habeck Grüne	Neither
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	11–13 Feb2025	1,348	51	40	9
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	4–6 Feb2025	1,341	49	40	11
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	27–29 Jan2025	1,428	47	41	12
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	21–23 Jan2025	1,345	50	37	13
Wahlkreisprognose	21–23 Jan2025	1,500	34	23	43
Forsa	14–20 Jan2025	2,502	30	26	44
Wahlkreisprognose	13–16 Jan2025	2,000	38	28	34
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	7–9 Jan2025	1,433	44	41	15
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	17–19 Dec2024	1,362	48	39	13
Wahlkreisprognose	16–18 Aug2022	1,433	19	30	51
Wahlkreisprognose	6–12 Aug2022	2,920	18	32	50

Scholz vs. Merz vs. Habeck vs. Weidel vs. Wagenknecht

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Scholz SPD	Merz Union	Habeck Grüne	Weidel AfD	Wagenknecht BSW	None
Wahlkreisprognose	11–13 Feb2025	1,700	9	22	14	21	7	27
Wahlkreisprognose	1–3 Feb2025	1,900	14	16	13	20	6	31
Democracy Institute	28–30 Jan2025	2,430	15	26	11	35	13	–
Wahlkreisprognose	21–23 Jan2025	1,500	16	18	15	23	5	23
Wahlkreisprognose	13–16 Jan2025	2,000	19	19	18	22	6	16
Wahlkreisprognose	21–28 Dec2024	2,000	18	19	17	18	10	18
INSA	6–9 Dec2024	2,004	14	17	12	17	10	31
Wahlkreisprognose	2–5 Dec2024	2,000	21	19	13	17	6	24
Wahlkreisprognose	14–20 Nov2024	2,000	15	22	9	17	9	28

Scholz vs. Weidel

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Scholz SPD	Weidel AfD	Neither
Wahlkreisprognose	1–3 Feb2025	1,900	34	28	38
Wahlkreisprognose	21–23 Jan2025	1,500	33	27	40
Wahlkreisprognose	13–16 Jan2025	2,000	27	21	52

Merz vs. Weidel

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Merz Union	Weidel AfD	Neither
Wahlkreisprognose	1–3 Feb2025	1,900	25	33	42
Wahlkreisprognose	21–23 Jan2025	1,500	31	34	35
Wahlkreisprognose	13–16 Jan2025	2,000	29	21	50

Scholz vs. Habeck

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Scholz SPD	Habeck Grüne	Neither
Wahlkreisprognose	21–23 Jan2025	1,500	27	13	60
Wahlkreisprognose	13–16 Jan2025	2,000	26	19	55
Wahlkreisprognose	16–18 Aug2022	1,433	36	32	32
Wahlkreisprognose	6–12 Aug2022	2,920	38	33	29

Weidel vs. Wagenknecht

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Weidel AfD	Wagenknecht BSW	Neither
Wahlkreisprognose	21–23 Jan2025	1,500	32	20	48
Wahlkreisprognose	13–16 Jan2025	2,000	28	21	51

Scholz vs. Merz vs. Habeck vs. Weidel vs. Wagenknecht vs. Lindner

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Scholz SPD	Merz Union	Habeck Grüne	Weidel AfD	Wagenknecht BSW	Lindner FDP	None
YouGov	17–20 Jan2025	2,194	12	18	17	17	6	4	26

Scholz vs. Merz vs. Habeck

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Scholz SPD	Merz Union	Habeck Grüne	None
Forsa	2–6 Jan2025	1,501	16	26	22	36
Forsa	17–20 Dec2024	2,008	16	27	23	34
Forsa	10–16 Dec2024	2,501	17	25	24	34
Allensbach	30 Nov–12 Dec2024	1,362	14	28	13	45
Forsa	3–9 Dec2024	2,501	18	26	25	31
Forsa	26 Nov–2 Dec2024	2,502	16	28	24	32
INSA	28–29 Nov2024	1,001	22	30	16	32
Forsa	19–25 Nov2024	2,500	13	30	22	35
INSA	21–22 Nov2024	1,001	15	31	18	36
Forsa	12–18 Nov2024	2,500	13	34	21	32
INSA	14–15 Nov2024	1,004	16	32	16	36
Forsa	8–11 Nov2024	1,004	16	32	20	32
INSA	3–4 Oct2024	1,001	23	31	13	33
INSA	26–27 Sep2024	1,002	19	35	16	30
INSA	11–12 Jul2024	1,250	17	31	16	36
Forsa	14–17 May2024	2,001	17	26	18	39
Forsa	7–13 May2024	2,006	17	25	17	41
Forsa	30 Apr–6 May2024	2,000	18	23	17	42
Forsa	23–29 Apr2024	2,505	17	23	17	43
Forsa	16–22 Apr2024	2,501	17	22	16	45
Forsa	9–15 Apr2024	2,505	17	22	16	45
INSA	11–12 Apr2024	1,003	20	30	14	36
Forsa	2–8 Apr2024	2,506	18	21	17	44
Forsa	26–28 Mar2024	1,508	19	22	17	42
Forsa	19–25 Mar2024	2,503	18	22	17	43
Forsa	12–18 Mar2024	2,500	16	21	18	45
Forsa	5–11 Mar2024	2,502	15	21	19	45
Forsa	27 Feb–4 Mar2024	2,506	15	23	18	44
Forsa	20–26 Feb2024	2,503	15	25	18	42
Forsa	13–19 Feb2024	2,504	14	24	18	44
Forsa	6–12 Feb2024	2,502	15	23	19	43
Forsa	30 Jan–5 Feb2024	2,503	12	25	19	44
Forsa	23–29 Jan2024	2,506	12	24	19	45
Forsa	16–22 Jan2024	2,503	13	25	17	45
Forsa	9–15 Jan2024	2,504	15	24	15	46
Forsa	2–8 Jan2024	2,502	15	24	15	46
Forsa	19–22 Dec2023	–	15	25	17	43
Forsa	12–18 Dec2023	2,501	15	24	18	43
Forsa	5–11 Dec2023	2,501	15	24	18	43
Forsa	28 Nov–4 Dec2023	2,501	16	24	18	42
Forsa	21–27 Nov2023	2,500	17	22	19	42
Forsa	14–20 Nov2023	2,501	19	21	18	42
Forsa	7–13 Nov2023	2,504	19	22	18	41
Forsa	31 Oct–6 Nov2023	2,502	20	21	17	42
Forsa	24–30 Sep2023	2,501	20	20	16	44
Forsa	17–23 Sep2023	2,504	20	21	15	44
Forsa	10–16 Sep2023	2,501	19	20	17	44
Forsa	4–9 Sep2023	2,003	22	20	16	42
Forsa	26–29 Sep2023	2,004	22	20	16	42
Forsa	19–25 Sep2023	2,503	22	20	16	42
Forsa	12–18 Sep2023	2,504	21	19	16	44
Forsa	4–11 Sep2023	2,505	21	19	16	44
Forsa	29 Aug–4 Sep2023	2,506	21	20	16	43
Forsa	22–28 Aug2023	2,504	21	19	15	45
Forsa	15–21 Aug2023	2,506	21	19	15	45
Forsa	8–14 Aug2023	2,501	21	18	15	46
Forsa	1–7 Aug2023	2,502	21	17	16	46
Forsa	25–31 Jul2023	2,500	22	18	17	43
Forsa	18–24 Jul2023	2,504	23	20	16	41
Forsa	11–17 Jul2023	2,502	23	20	17	40
Forsa	4–7 Jul2023	2,003	22	20	16	42
Forsa	27 Jun–3 Jul2023	2,501	21	20	16	43
Forsa	20–26 Jun2023	2,506	23	20	16	41
Forsa	13–19 Jun2023	2,503	25	20	15	40
Forsa	6–12 Jun2023	2,504	25	21	15	39
Forsa	30 May–5 Jun2023	2,505	25	23	14	38
Forsa	23–26 May2023	2,001	25	23	14	38
Forsa	16–22 May2023	2,003	26	22	13	39
Forsa	9–15 May2023	2,503	24	23	14	39
Forsa	2–8 May2023	2,505	24	22	15	39
Wahlkreisprognose	26–30 Apr2023	1,400	31	26	8	35
Forsa	25–28 Apr2023	2,007	23	22	16	39
Forsa	18–24 Apr2023	2,506	22	24	16	38
Forsa	11–17 Apr2023	2,508	23	25	17	35
Forsa	4–6 Apr2023	1,501	21	23	18	38
Forsa	28 Mar–3 Apr2023	2,502	23	21	17	39
Forsa	21–27 Mar2023	2,506	24	22	18	36
Wahlkreisprognose	23–26 Mar2023	1,200	29	18	13	40
Forsa	14–20 Mar2023	2,503	26	21	17	36
Forsa	7–13 Mar2023	2,505	27	21	17	35
Forsa	28 Feb–6 Mar2023	2,504	25	20	19	36
Wahlkreisprognose	27 Feb–1 Mar2023	1,419	27	17	11	45
Forsa	21–27 Feb2023	2,501	27	19	19	35
Forsa	14–20 Feb2023	2,510	25	20	19	36
Forsa	7–13 Feb2023	2,505	27	20	20	33
Forsa	31 Jan–6 Feb2023	2,502	26	20	20	34
Forsa	24–30 Jan2023	2,503	25	21	20	34
Wahlkreisprognose	26–27 Jan2023	1,421	26	16	12	46
Forsa	17–23 Jan2023	2,502	23	21	21	35
Wahlkreisprognose	15–16 Jan2023	1,500	22	21	15	42
Forsa	10–16 Jan2023	2,500	22	20	20	38
Forsa	3–9 Jan2023	2,502	21	20	20	39
Forsa	13–19 Dec2022	2,503	23	19	20	38
Forsa	6–12 Dec2022	2,506	24	19	19	38
Wahlkreisprognose	7–9 Dec2022	1,500	24	22	13	41
Forsa	29 Nov–5 Dec2022	2,500	22	20	20	38
Forsa	22–28 Nov2022	2,505	23	20	20	37
Forsa	15–21 Nov2022	2,502	22	20	20	38
Forsa	8–14 Nov2022	2,503	21	20	20	39
Wahlkreisprognose	7–8 Nov2022	1,300	25	22	13	40
Forsa	1–7 Nov2022	2,502	22	19	19	40
Forsa	25–31 Oct2022	2,503	23	19	19	39
Forsa	18–24 Oct2022	2,502	24	19	18	39
Wahlkreisprognose	18–21 Oct2022	1,910	28	19	15	38
Forsa	11–17 Oct2022	2,505	23	19	19	39
Forsa	4–10 Oct2022	2,501	24	18	17	41
Wahlkreisprognose	3–6 Oct2022	1,923	28	25	14	33
Forsa	27–30 Sep2022	2,001	22	20	17	41
Forsa	20–26 Sep2022	2,505	22	22	17	39
Wahlkreisprognose	20–22 Sep2022	1,700	29	25	15	31
Forsa	13–19 Sep2022	2,506	23	22	18	37
Forsa	6–13 Sep2022	2,501	21	20	21	38
Wahlkreisprognose	9–11 Sep2022	1,300	30	24	15	31
INSA	9 Sep2022	1,000	24	23	19	34
Forsa	30 Aug–5 Sep2022	2,500	21	18	25	36
Forsa	23–29 Aug2022	2,503	20	16	27	37
Forsa	16–22 Aug2022	2,505	20	16	25	39
INSA	19 Aug2022	1,002	18	19	25	38
Wahlkreisprognose	16–18 Aug2022	1,433	36	13	30	21
Forsa	9–15 Aug2022	2,500	22	16	26	36
Wahlkreisprognose	6–12 Aug2022	2,920	32	15	28	25
Forsa	2–8 Aug2022	2,504	24	16	27	33
Forsa	26 Jul–1 Aug2022	2,504	23	18	28	31
INSA	29 Jul2022	1,002	24	18	21	37
Forsa	19–25 Jul2022	2,510	25	17	30	28
Wahlkreisprognose	19–20 Jul2022	1,400	39	11	32	18
Forsa	15–18 Jul2022	2,002	26	17	31	26
Wahlkreisprognose	23–26 Jun2022	2,430	40	13	31	16
Wahlkreisprognose	7–8 Jun2022	1,603	38	13	27	22
Wahlkreisprognose	30 May–1 Jun2022	1,500	35	14	29	21
Wahlkreisprognose	15–16 May2022	1,302	37	21	25	17
Wahlkreisprognose	8–9 May2022	1,610	38	21	24	17

Scholz vs. Merz vs. Weidel

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Scholz SPD	Merz Union	Weidel AfD	None
Wahlkreisprognose	22–27 Aug2023	1,200	21	15	17	47
Wahlkreisprognose	26–27 Jul2023	1,525	24	18	16	42
Wahlkreisprognose	22–25 Jun2023	1,399	27	15	15	43
Wahlkreisprognose	1–2 Jun2023	1,100	25	22	16	37
Wahlkreisprognose	26–30 Apr2023	1,400	34	22	11	33
Wahlkreisprognose	23–26 Mar2023	1,200	33	18	13	36
Wahlkreisprognose	27 Feb–1 Mar2023	1,419	31	15	13	41
Wahlkreisprognose	26–27 Jan2023	1,421	30	14	14	42
Wahlkreisprognose	15–16 Jan2023	1,500	24	17	16	43
Wahlkreisprognose	7–9 Dec2022	1,500	31	18	13	38
Wahlkreisprognose	7–8 Nov2022	1,300	26	18	17	39

Speculative Chancellor candidates

These following speculative polls were conducted before or shortly after the announcement of each party's Chancellor candidate, and gauged opinion on various politicians who were considered to be plausible candidates for their respective parties.

Pistorius vs. Merz

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Pistorius SPD	Merz Union	Neither
Wahlkreisprognose	21–23 Jan2025	1,500	43	24	33
Wahlkreisprognose	13–16 Jan2025	2,000	36	21	43
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	19–21 Nov2024	1,399	59	28	13
Forsa	7 Nov2024	1,181	39	25	36
INSA	19–23 Sep2024	1,001	33	29	38
INSA	4–5 Jan2024	1,004	25	23	52
Wahlkreisprognose	2–4 Jan2024	1,500	32	28	40
Wahlkreisprognose	25–27 Nov2023	1,200	30	29	41
Wahlkreisprognose	22–27 Aug2023	1,200	41	18	41

Pistorius vs. Merz vs. Habeck

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Pistorius SPD	Merz Union	Habeck Grüne	None
INSA	21–22 Nov2024	1,001	33	24	14	29
INSA	14–15 Nov2024	1,004	27	30	13	30

Pistorius vs. Merz vs. Habeck vs. Weidel

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Pistorius SPD	Merz Union	Habeck Grüne	Weidel AfD	None
INSA	11–14 Oct2024	2,002	27	19	13	20	21

Scholz vs. Söder

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Scholz SPD	Söder Union	Neither
INSA	8–9 Aug2024	1,004	23	41	36
Forsa	8–13 May2024	1,503	30	36	34
Forsa	9–15 Jan2024	1,502	27	40	33
INSA	4–5 Jan2024	1,004	20	36	44
INSA	7–8 Sep2023	1,001	26	32	42
INSA	15–16 Jun2023	1,003	30	31	39
INSA	20 May2022	1,003	32	29	39
Wahlkreisprognose	18–19 Dec2021	1,120	49	28	23
Forsa	2–8 Nov2021	2,502	39	33	28
Forsa	5–11 Oct2021	2,503	37	33	30

Scholz vs. Wüst

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Scholz SPD	Wüst Union	Neither
INSA	8–9 Aug2024	1,004	23	26	51
Forsa	8–13 May2024	1,503	28	28	44
Forsa	9–15 Jan2024	1,502	25	36	39
INSA	15–16 Jun2023	1,003	29	18	53
INSA	20 May2022	1,003	32	14	54

Scholz vs. Söder vs. Habeck

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Scholz SPD	Söder Union	Habeck Grüne	None
INSA	11–12 Jul2024	1,250	17	37	16	30

Scholz vs. Merz vs. Baerbock vs. Weidel vs. Wagenknecht

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Scholz SPD	Merz Union	Baerbock Grüne	Weidel AfD	Wagenknecht BSW	None
Wahlkreisprognose	13–19 May2024	2,500	14	18	9	13	9	37
Wahlkreisprognose	18–20 Mar2024	1,300	15	18	10	11	12	34
Wahlkreisprognose	21–22 Feb2024	1,300	13	17	10	12	11	37
Wahlkreisprognose	22–24 Jan2024	1,366	11	19	10	14	10	36
Wahlkreisprognose	2–4 Jan2024	1,500	10	22	11	18	8	31
Wahlkreisprognose	25–27 Nov2023	1,200	16	19	9	17	8	31
Wahlkreisprognose	23–25 Oct2023	1,300	18	16	9	14	13	30

Scholz vs. Merz vs. Baerbock

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Scholz SPD	Merz Union	Baerbock Grüne	None
Forsa	14–17 May2024	2,001	20	29	17	34
Forsa	7–13 May2024	2,006	20	28	15	37
Forsa	30 Apr–6 May2024	2,000	21	26	16	37
Forsa	23–29 Apr2024	2,505	21	26	16	37
Forsa	16–22 Apr2024	2,501	20	25	16	39
Forsa	9–15 Apr2024	2,505	20	25	17	38
INSA	11–12 Apr2024	1,003	18	32	17	33
Forsa	2–8 Apr2024	1,506	21	24	16	39
Forsa	26–28 Mar2024	1,508	22	25	16	37
Forsa	19–25 Mar2024	2,503	21	25	16	38
Forsa	12–18 Mar2024	2,500	19	24	17	40
Forsa	5–11 Mar2024	2,502	18	24	19	39
Forsa	27 Feb–4 Mar2024	2,506	18	26	17	39
Forsa	20–26 Feb2024	2,503	18	27	18	37
Forsa	13–19 Feb2024	2,504	17	27	18	38
Forsa	6–12 Feb2024	2,502	18	26	18	38
Forsa	30 Jan–5 Feb2024	2,503	16	28	18	38
Forsa	23–29 Jan2024	2,506	15	28	17	40
Forsa	16–22 Jan2024	2,503	16	28	16	40
Forsa	9–15 Jan2024	2,504	17	27	15	41
Forsa	2–8 Jan2024	2,502	17	27	15	41
Forsa	19–22 Dec2023	–	18	28	17	37
Forsa	12–18 Dec2023	2,501	19	27	17	37
Forsa	5–11 Dec2023	2,501	18	28	17	37
Forsa	28 Nov–4 Dec2023	2,501	19	27	17	37
Forsa	21–27 Nov2023	2,500	19	25	17	39
Forsa	14–20 Nov2023	2,501	22	24	16	38
Forsa	7–13 Nov2023	2,504	22	25	16	37
Forsa	31 Oct–6 Nov2023	2,502	23	24	16	37
Forsa	24–30 Sep2023	2,501	22	23	17	38
Forsa	17–23 Sep2023	2,504	23	23	17	37
Forsa	10–16 Sep2023	2,501	22	22	18	38
Forsa	4–9 Sep2023	2,003	23	22	18	37
Forsa	26–29 Sep2023	2,004	24	22	17	37
Forsa	19–25 Sep2023	2,503	24	22	18	36
Forsa	12–18 Sep2023	2,504	23	21	17	39
Forsa	4–11 Sep2023	2,505	23	22	17	38
Forsa	29 Aug–4 Sep2023	2,506	22	22	17	39
Forsa	22–28 Aug2023	2,504	22	21	17	40
Forsa	15–21 Aug2023	2,506	22	21	16	41
Forsa	8–14 Aug2023	2,501	22	20	16	42
Forsa	1–7 Aug2023	2,502	22	19	18	41
Forsa	25–31 Jul2023	2,500	24	21	18	37
Forsa	18–24 Jul2023	2,504	25	23	17	35
Forsa	11–17 Jul2023	2,502	25	22	18	35
Forsa	4–7 Jul2023	2,003	24	22	18	36
Forsa	27 Jun–3 Jul2023	2,501	23	23	19	35
Forsa	20–26 Jun2023	2,506	24	23	19	34
Forsa	13–19 Jun2023	2,503	26	23	19	32
Forsa	6–12 Jun2023	2,504	26	23	19	32
Forsa	30 May–5 Jun2023	2,505	26	25	19	30
Forsa	23–26 May2023	2,001	27	25	19	29
Forsa	16–22 May2023	2,003	27	24	18	31
Forsa	9–15 May2023	2,503	25	25	18	32
Forsa	2–8 May2023	2,505	26	24	18	32
Wahlkreisprognose	26–30 Apr2023	1,400	30	25	13	32
Forsa	25–28 Apr2023	2,007	25	25	19	31
Forsa	18–24 Apr2023	2,506	24	26	19	31
Forsa	11–17 Apr2023	2,508	25	27	18	30
Forsa	4–6 Apr2023	1,501	24	25	19	32
Forsa	28 Mar–3 Apr2023	2,502	24	23	20	33
Forsa	21–27 Mar2023	2,506	26	24	20	30
Wahlkreisprognose	23–26 Mar2023	1,200	28	18	14	40
Forsa	14–20 Mar2023	2,503	28	24	19	29
Forsa	7–13 Mar2023	2,505	28	23	18	31
Forsa	28 Feb–6 Mar2023	2,504	28	23	19	30
Wahlkreisprognose	27 Feb–1 Mar2023	1,419	26	17	14	43
Forsa	21–27 Feb2023	2,501	30	22	18	30
Forsa	14–20 Feb2023	2,510	28	22	19	31
Forsa	7–13 Feb2023	2,505	30	22	19	29
Forsa	31 Jan–6 Feb2023	2,502	30	22	18	30
Forsa	24–30 Jan2023	2,503	27	23	19	31
Wahlkreisprognose	26–27 Jan2023	1,421	26	15	15	44
Forsa	17–23 Jan2023	2,502	25	24	22	29
Wahlkreisprognose	15–16 Jan2023	1,500	23	23	20	34
Forsa	10–16 Jan2023	2,500	24	23	23	30
Forsa	3–9 Jan2023	2,502	24	23	22	31
Forsa	13–19 Dec2022	2,503	24	22	21	33
Forsa	6–12 Dec2022	2,506	24	22	22	32
Wahlkreisprognose	7–9 Dec2022	1,500	26	18	15	41
Forsa	29 Nov–5 Dec2022	2,500	24	22	22	32
Forsa	22–28 Nov2022	2,505	24	22	22	32
Forsa	15–21 Nov2022	2,502	25	22	22	31
Forsa	8–14 Nov2022	2,503	24	22	22	32
Wahlkreisprognose	7–8 Nov2022	1,300	27	17	14	42
Forsa	1–7 Nov2022	2,502	24	21	20	35
Forsa	25–31 Oct2022	2,503	25	20	20	35
Forsa	18–24 Oct2022	2,502	25	20	19	36
Wahlkreisprognose	18–21 Oct2022	1,910	29	21	16	34
Forsa	11–17 Oct2022	2,505	24	21	21	34
Forsa	4–10 Oct2022	2,501	25	20	20	35
Wahlkreisprognose	3–6 Oct2022	1,923	28	24	16	32
Forsa	27–30 Sep2022	2,001	23	22	19	36
Forsa	20–26 Sep2022	2,505	23	23	19	35
Wahlkreisprognose	20–22 Sep2022	1,700	28	24	17	31
Forsa	13–19 Sep2022	2,506	23	23	20	34
Forsa	6–13 Sep2022	2,501	23	23	20	34
Forsa	30 Aug–5 Sep2022	2,500	23	21	23	33
Forsa	23–29 Aug2022	2,503	23	19	24	34
Forsa	16–22 Aug2022	2,505	26	17	23	34
Forsa	9–15 Aug2022	2,500	29	17	22	32
Wahlkreisprognose	8–9 May2022	1,610	38	20	23	19
Wahlkreisprognose	23 Apr2022	1,007	37	13	24	26

Pistorius vs. Merz vs. Baerbock vs. Weidel vs. Wagenknecht

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Pistorius SPD	Merz Union	Baerbock Grüne	Weidel AfD	Wagenknecht BSW	None
Wahlkreisprognose	18–20 Mar2024	1,300	27	18	12	11	11	21
Wahlkreisprognose	25–27 Nov2023	1,200	31	12	10	16	10	21

Pistorius vs. Söder

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Pistorius SPD	Söder Union	Neither
INSA	4–5 Jan2024	1,004	25	34	41

Scholz vs. Merz vs. Baerbock vs. Weidel

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Scholz SPD	Merz Union	Baerbock Grüne	Weidel AfD	None
Wahlkreisprognose	24–25 Sep2023	1.200	20	16	15	18	31
Forsa	20–26 Jun2023	2.506	25	23	19	9	24

Scholz vs. Günther

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Scholz SPD	Günther Union	Neither
INSA	20 May2022	1,003	32	12	56

Scholz vs. Röttgen

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Scholz SPD	Röttgen Union	Neither
Forsa	23–29 Nov2021	2,509	45	19	36
Forsa	16–22 Nov2021	2,501	45	20	35
Forsa	9–15 Nov2021	2,510	45	21	34
Wahlkreisprognose	11–12 Nov2021	1,004	41	20	39
Forsa	2–8 Nov2021	2,502	51	20	29

Scholz vs. Braun

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Scholz SPD	Braun Union	Neither
Forsa	23–29 Nov2021	2,509	50	11	39
Forsa	16–22 Nov2021	2,501	50	12	38
Wahlkreisprognose	11–12 Nov2021	1,004	42	22	36

Scholz vs. Laschet

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Scholz SPD	Laschet Union	Neither
YouGov	19–23 Nov2021	2,167	46	6	48
Forsa	26 Oct–1 Nov2021	2,501	50	8	42
Forsa	19–25 Oct2021	2,510	52	8	40
Forsa	12–18 Oct2021	2,502	53	8	39
Forsa	5–11 Oct2021	2,503	52	8	40
Forsa	27 Sep–4 Oct2021	3,004	52	9	39
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	28–30 Sep2021	1,249	76	13	11
Infratest dimap	27 Sep2021	1,084	62	16	22
Forsa	27 Sep2021	1,006	56	11	33
YouGov	26 Sep2021	1,596	43	13	43

Scholz vs. Kretschmer

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Scholz SPD	Kretschmer Union	Neither
Wahlkreisprognose	11–12 Nov2021	1,004	41	19.5	39.5

Preferred coalition

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	SPD Grüne		Union FDP		SPD Grüne FDP			Union SPD		Union Grüne		Union Grüne FDP			Union SPD Grüne			Union SPD FDP			SPD Grüne Linke			SPD FDP		Union AfD [c]
Infratest dimap	10–12 Feb2025	1,579	–		11		–			32		16		–			–			–			–			–		17
Forsa	6–7 Feb2025	1,001	–		–		–			43		33		–			–			–			–			–		17
Infratest dimap	3–5 Feb2025	1,302	–		13		–			31		14		–			–			–			–			–		19
INSA	31 Jan–3 Feb2025	2,004	–		–		–			27		13		–			–			–			–			–		24
Ipsos	30–31 Jan2025	1,000	–		–		–			18		5		3			8			7			–			–		23
Infratest dimap	27–29 Jan2025	1,336	–		12		–			32		16		–			–			–			–			–		18
INSA	24–27 Jan2025	2,006	–		–		–			29		13		–			–			–			–			–		25
INSA	17–20 Jan2025	2,008	–		12		–			24		12		–			–			–			–			–		25
INSA	10–13 Jan2025	2,005	–		12		–			24		11		–			–			–			–			–		20
Infratest dimap	16–18 Dec2024	1,336	–		12		–			29		19		–			–			–			–			–		15
Ipsos	29 Nov–1 Dec2024	1,000	–		–		–			22		7		3			9			6			–			–		18
INSA	22–25 Nov2024	1,002	–		13		–			29		13		–			–			–			–			–		24
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	19–21 Nov2024	1,399	11		7		0			30		9		–			–			–			2			0		–
Infratest dimap	18–20 Nov2024	1,318	–		12		–			31		15		–			–			–			–			–		16
Forsa	7–8 Nov2024	1,008	–		15		–			34		17		4			–			–			–			–		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	5–7 Nov2024	1,231	13		10		1			23		6		–			–			–			1			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	15–17 Oct2024	1,249	13		7		0			23		7		–			–			–			2			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	24–26 Sep2024	1,348	13		6		1			21		4		–			–			–			1			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	3–5 Sep2024	1,328	8		8		0			23		6		–			–			–			2			0		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	12–14 Aug2024	1,334	15		10		1			17		7		–			–			–			2			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	9–11 Jul2024	1,341	12		13		1			18		8		–			–			–			2			0		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	25–27 May2024	1,186	9		11		2			17		9		–			–			–			2			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	10–12 May2024	1,334	9		10		2			19		8		–			–			–			1			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	14–16 May2024	1,247	13		10		1			23		7		–			–			–			2			2		–
Forsa	26–29 Apr2024	1,007	–		–		10			21		10		4			–			11			–			–		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	23–25 Apr2024	1,228	17		13		2			17		7		–			–			–			2			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	9–11 Apr2024	1,254	11		11		2			20		8		–			–			–			2			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	19–21 Mar2024	1,296	12		11		2			20		8		–			–			–			2			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	5–7 Mar2024	1,260	15		9		1			20		7		–			–			–			2			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	20–22 Feb2024	1,294	12		13		2			18		9		–			–			–			2			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	30 Jan–1 Feb2024	1,217	10		9		2			23		8		–			–			–			1			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	9–11 Jan2024	1,337	13		8		1			19		7		–			–			–			2			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	12–14 Dec2023	1,146	13		14		2			16		6		–			–			–			1			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	21–23 Nov2023	1,242	15		10		1			19		8		–			–			–			2			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	7–9 Nov2023	1,234	16		9		2			17		10		–			–			–			2			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	17–19 Oct2023	1,252	13		10		1			18		8		–			–			–			2			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	12–14 Sep2023	1,201	18		13		3			14		7		–			–			–			3			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	15–17 Aug2023	1,288	16		11		3			15		6		–			–			–			2			2		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	11–13 Jul2023	1,346	14		11		3			15		8		–			–			–			4			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	27–29 Jun2023	1,379	17		10		2			19		6		–			–			–			3			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	13–15 Jun2023	1,224	19		11		3			19		6		–			–			–			2			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	23–25 May2023	1,257	15		11		3			17		7		–			–			–			4			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	2–4 May2023	1,225	16		13		3			15		7		–			–			–			3			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	18–20 Apr2023	1,266	19		12		2			16		9		–			–			–			2			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	28–30 Mar2023	1,379	18		12		3			15		7		–			–			–			2			2		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	14–16 Mar2023	1,146	21		11		4			14		9		–			–			–			2			2		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	28 Feb–2 Mar2023	1,165	19		10		2			17		10		–			–			–			2			2		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	14–16 Feb2023	1,361	18		10		3			13		12		–			–			–			3			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	24–26 Jan2023	1,345	20		10		5			10		11		–			–			–			2			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	10–12 Jan2023	1,259	19		11		4			12		9		–			–			–			3			2		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	12–15 Dec2022	1,365	21		11		4			11		11		–			–			–			2			2		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	22–24 Nov2022	1,273	21		12		3			12		9		–			–			–			2			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	8–10 Nov2022	1,310	24		9		3			11		11		–			–			–			3			2		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	18–20 Oct2022	1,389	23		11		3			11		9		–			–			–			2			2		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	27–29 Sep2022	1,355	20		11		5			10		9		–			–			–			3			2		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	6–8 Sep2022	1,299	18		13		6			10		9		–			–			–			3			3		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	9–11 Aug2022	1,389	19		8		6			10		13		–			–			–			4			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	12–14 Jul2022	1,167	19		7		5			8		14		–			–			–			2			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	28–30 Jun2022	1,186	22		8		5			11		15		–			–			–			2			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	13–15 Jun2022	1,133	20		7		6			10		15		–			–			–			3			3		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	17–19 May2022	1,162	22		8		7			10		16		–			–			–			2			1		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	26–28 Apr2022	1,170	21		10		10			10		7		–			–			–			4			2		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	5–7 Apr2022	1,230	23		8		9			14		7		–			–			–			4			2		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	8–10 Mar2022	1,345	18		11		12			15		5		–			–			–			3			4		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	21–23 Feb2022	1,103	17		11		9			12		5		–			–			–			5			3		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	8–10 Feb2022	1,224	16		13		11			15		5		–			–			–			4			2		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	25–27 Jan2022	1,249	16		11		11			9		6		–			–			–			4			3		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	11–13 Jan2022	1,128	16		11		12			10		4		–			–			–			5			5		–
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	7–9 Dec2021	1,303	16		10		12			10		6		–			–			–			4			4		–

Constituency projections

With the new electoral reform, constituency seats are only awarded if covered by the votes cast for the party in that state. As such, the number of constituency seats won by a party may be lower than that party's number of constituency pluralities. ^[29]

Constituency pluralities

Polling firm	Release date	Union	SPD	Grüne	AfD	Linke	FDP	BSW
2025 federal election	23 Feb2025	190	45	12	46	6	0	0
BUNKER	21 Feb2025	231	10	7	49	2	0	0
zweitstimme.org	21 Feb2025	202	40	10	40	4	0	0
election.de	21 Feb2025	204	34	11	45	5	0	0
YouGov (MRP)	20 Feb2025	197	44	7	47	4	0	0
INSA	17 Feb2025	245	9	12	31	2	0	0
election.de	14 Feb2025	203	35	12	46	3	0	0
INSA	10 Feb2025	235	6	12	45	1	0	0
election.de	7 Feb2025	204	35	11	47	2	0	0
YouGov (MRP)	6 Feb2025	222	25	3	48	2	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	5 Feb2025	223	19	8	46	3	0	0
INSA	3 Feb2025	239	8	13	38	1	0	0
election.de	31 Jan2025	203	35	12	47	2	0	0
INSA	27 Jan2025	235	6	11	46	1	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	25 Jan2025	231	11	9	46	2	0	0
election.de	24 Jan2025	209	33	10	45	2	0	0
INSA	20 Jan2025	229	11	13	45	1	0	0
election.de	17 Jan2025	212	30	10	45	2	0	0
YouGov (MRP)	16 Jan2025	208	35	5	50	1	0	0
INSA	13 Jan2025	246	4	9	40	0	0	0
election.de	10 Jan2025	211	31	10	45	2	0	0
INSA	6 Jan2025	244	7	13	35	0	0	0
election.de	3 Jan2025	214	30	9	44	2	0	0
INSA	30 Dec2024	249	8	6	34	2	0	0
election.de	27 Dec2024	219	26	9	43	2	0	0
INSA	23 Dec2024	246	8	8	37	0	0	0
INSA	16 Dec2024	244	8	6	41	0	0	0
election.de	13 Dec2024	223	26	9	39	2	0	0
INSA	9 Dec2024	265	10	4	20	0	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	6 Dec2024	231	16	6	45	1	0	0
INSA	2 Dec2024	247	6	11	34	1	0	0
election.de	29 Nov2024	228	17	9	43	2	0	0
INSA	25 Nov2024	272	5	3	19	0	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	22 Nov2024	244	6	5	43	1	0	0
INSA	18 Nov2024	263	7	4	23	2	0	0
election.de	15 Nov2024	236	17	6	38	2	0	0
INSA	11 Nov2024	267	4	5	21	2	0	0
INSA	4 Nov2024	258	5	2	34	0	0	0
INSA	28 Oct2024	269	4	5	20	1	0	0
INSA	21 Oct2024	264	12	2	20	1	0	0
election.de	15 Oct2024	226	23	9	39	2	0	0
INSA	14 Oct2024	253	7	3	35	1	0	0
INSA	7 Oct2024	243	7	3	46	0	0	0
INSA	30 Sep2024	250	5	5	39	0	0	0
INSA	23 Sep2024	241	6	1	51	0	0	0
INSA	16 Sep2024	274	2	1	22	0	0	0
election.de	15 Sep2024	236	17	7	37	2	0	0
INSA	9 Sep2024	241	2	7	49	0	0	0
INSA	2 Sep2024	247	5	2	45	0	0	0
INSA	26 Aug2024	265	4	7	23	0	0	0
INSA	19 Aug2024	257	6	4	32	0	0	0
election.de	15 Aug2024	227	22	10	38	2	0	0
INSA	12 Aug2024	250	6	4	38	1	0	0
INSA	5 Aug2024	254	8	4	33	0	0	0
INSA	29 Jul2024	271	8	3	17	0	0	0
INSA	22 Jul2024	256	5	3	33	2	0	0
election.de	15 Jul2024	222	21	13	41	2	0	0
INSA	15 Jul2024	258	4	7	29	1	0	0
INSA	8 Jul2024	255	5	7	32	0	0	0
INSA	1 Jul2024	258	6	11	23	1	0	0
INSA	24 Jun2024	278	4	5	12	0	0	0
INSA	17 Jun2024	258	7	5	29	0	0	0
election.de	15 Jun2024	218	30	12	37	2	0	0
INSA	10 Jun2024	267	13	9	10	0	0	0
INSA	3 Jun2024	261	9	6	21	2	0	0
INSA	27 May2024	271	7	10	11	0	0	0
INSA	21 May2024	261	10	11	17	0	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	20 May2024	246	23	6	23	1	0	0
election.de	15 May2024	217	28	14	38	2	0	0
INSA	13 May2024	258	7	11	23	0	0	0
INSA	6 May2024	250	6	10	31	2	0	0
INSA	29 Apr2024	231	10	12	45	1	0	0
INSA	22 Apr2024	243	6	10	38	2	0	0
election.de	15 Apr2024	213	30	12	42	2	0	0
INSA	15 Apr2024	255	9	13	22	0	0	0
INSA	8 Apr2024	259	5	11	22	2	0	0
INSA	2 Apr2024	260	8	12	19	0	0	0
INSA	25 Mar2024	240	6	10	43	0	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	21 Mar2024	212	43	7	35	1	0	0
INSA	18 Mar2024	257	10	9	22	1	0	0
election.de	15 Mar2024	210	29	14	44	2	0	0
INSA	11 Mar2024	250	3	10	34	2	0	0
INSA	4 Mar2024	262	4	11	22	0	0	0
INSA	26 Feb2024	261	6	13	19	0	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	22 Feb2024	235	8	6	48	0	0	2
INSA	19 Feb2024	245	4	10	39	1	0	0
election.de	15 Feb2024	214	27	12	44	2	0	0
INSA	12 Feb2024	242	4	10	42	1	0	0
INSA	5 Feb2024	240	9	11	39	0	0	0
INSA	29 Jan2024	243	6	10	40	0	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	26 Jan2024	219	23	6	48	1	0	2
INSA	22 Jan2024	252	4	10	33	0	0	0
election.de	15 Jan2024	217	20	13	48	1	0	0
INSA	15 Jan2024	243	4	8	43	1	0	0
INSA	8 Jan2024	253	6	6	34	0	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	4 Jan2024	230	4	4	61	0	0	0
INSA	2 Jan2024	244	4	10	39	2	0	0
INSA	27 Dec2023	242	3	7	46	1	0	0
INSA	18 Dec2023	244	5	10	39	1	0	0
election.de	15 Dec2023	217	20	13	48	1	0	0
INSA	11 Dec2023	230	9	11	48	1	0	0
INSA	4 Dec2023	225	9	14	50	1	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	27 Nov2023	221	14	4	60	0	0	0
INSA	27 Nov2023	243	6	10	39	1	0	0
INSA	20 Nov2023	237	12	13	35	2	0	0
election.de	15 Nov2023	203	31	16	47	2	0	0
INSA	13 Nov2023	233	12	13	40	1	0	0
INSA	6 Nov2023	231	14	14	38	2	0	0
INSA	30 Oct2023	242	10	10	36	1	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	25 Oct2023	220	23	7	31	0	0	18
INSA	23 Oct2023	230	15	13	39	2	0	0
INSA	16 Oct2023	210	24	11	53	1	0	0
election.de	15 Oct2023	190	43	17	47	2	0	0
INSA	9 Oct2023	202	23	17	56	1	0	0
INSA	2 Oct2023	200	40	16	41	2	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	25 Sep2023	153	62	21	62	1	0	0
INSA	25 Sep2023	199	32	15	51	2	0	0
INSA	18 Sep2023	198	31	20	48	2	0	0
INSA	11 Sep2023	194	30	18	56	1	0	0
INSA	4 Sep2023	198	33	17	49	2	0	0
election.de	1 Sep2023	185	49	16	47	2	0	0
INSA	28 Aug2023	194	30	23	50	2	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	28 Aug2023	151	78	12	57	1	0	0
INSA	21 Aug2023	194	35	19	50	1	0	0
election.de	18 Aug2023	181	51	18	47	2	0	0
INSA	14 Aug2023	189	49	16	43	2	0	0
INSA	7 Aug2023	200	53	17	29	0	0	0
election.de	4 Aug2023	183	48	19	47	2	0	0
INSA	31 Jul2023	198	41	17	41	2	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	27 Jul2023	154	79	13	51	2	0	0
INSA	24 Jul2023	201	44	18	34	2	0	0
election.de	21 Jul2023	188	46	16	46	3	0	0
INSA	17 Jul2023	208	30	19	40	2	0	0
INSA	10 Jul2023	210	41	19	27	2	0	0
election.de	7 Jul2023	184	49	17	46	3	0	0
INSA	3 Jul2023	190	46	23	38	2	0	0
INSA	26 Jun2023	197	43	16	41	2	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	26 Jun2023	139	82	19	57	2	0	0
election.de	23 Jun2023	189	48	16	43	3	0	0
INSA	19 Jun2023	194	47	15	41	2	0	0
INSA	12 Jun2023	215	47	15	20	2	0	0
election.de	9 Jun2023	190	48	16	42	3	0	0
INSA	5 Jun2023	214	47	17	19	2	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	2 Jun2023	168	85	12	32	2	0	0
INSA	30 May2023	227	48	13	10	1	0	0
election.de	26 May2023	196	49	16	35	3	0	0
INSA	22 May2023	217	51	18	11	2	0	0
INSA	15 May2023	229	41	19	9	1	0	0
election.de	12 May2023	196	49	16	35	3	0	0
INSA	8 May2023	225	42	20	10	2	0	0
INSA	2 May2023	207	51	22	17	2	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	30 Apr2023	182	75	10	29	3	0	0
election.de	28 Apr2023	196	49	18	33	3	0	0
INSA	24 Apr2023	218	44	19	17	1	0	0
INSA	17 Apr2023	216	48	19	15	1	0	0
election.de	16 Apr2023	191	54	19	32	3	0	0
INSA	11 Apr2023	212	46	23	17	1	0	0
INSA	3 Apr2023	221	48	19	9	2	0	0
election.de	2 Apr2023	191	54	19	32	3	0	0
INSA	27 Mar2023	214	49	25	10	1	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	27 Mar2023	159	99	14	24	3	0	0
INSA	20 Mar2023	224	54	17	3	1	0	0
election.de	19 Mar2023	185	60	19	32	3	0	0
INSA	13 Mar2023	217	51	20	10	1	0	0
election.de	10 Mar2023	193	56	18	29	3	0	0
INSA	6 Mar2023	233	37	18	10	1	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	1 Mar2023	192	73	11	22	1	0	0
INSA	27 Feb2023	243	36	19	0	1	0	0
election.de	24 Feb2023	191	57	19	29	3	0	0
INSA	20 Feb2023	223	51	24	0	1	0	0
INSA	13 Feb2023	228	45	23	1	2	0	0
election.de	10 Feb2023	178	61	25	32	3	0	0
INSA	6 Feb2023	203	50	27	17	2	0	0
INSA	30 Jan2023	216	39	23	19	2	0	0
election.de	27 Jan2023	181	59	27	29	3	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	27 Jan2023	134	109	23	30	3	0	0
INSA	23 Jan2023	211	49	26	11	2	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	16 Jan2023	149	93	22	33	2	0	0
INSA	16 Jan2023	223	46	25	4	1	0	0
election.de	13 Jan2023	181	57	29	29	3	0	0
INSA	9 Jan2023	212	45	31	9	2	0	0
INSA	2 Jan2023	216	48	32	3	0	0	0
election.de	30 Dec2022	179	61	29	27	3	0	0
INSA	19 Dec2022	214	50	30	3	2	0	0
election.de	16 Dec2022	182	54	31	29	3	0	0
INSA	12 Dec2022	214	45	31	7	2	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	9 Dec2022	146	100	20	31	2	0	0
INSA	5 Dec2022	219	50	27	1	2	0	0
election.de	2 Dec2022	180	55	32	29	3	0	0
INSA	28 Nov2022	212	52	33	0	2	0	0
INSA	21 Nov2022	210	44	28	15	2	0	0
election.de	18 Nov2022	177	55	32	32	3	0	0
INSA	14 Nov2022	215	49	30	4	1	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	8 Nov2022	141	113	18	24	3	0	0
INSA	7 Nov2022	205	50	33	9	2	0	0
election.de	4 Nov2022	174	57	33	32	3	0	0
INSA	31 Oct2022	203	51	36	7	2	0	0
election.de	21 Oct2022	174	57	33	32	3	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	21 Oct2022	145	96	24	31	3	0	0
INSA	17 Oct2022	219	40	36	3	1	0	0
INSA	10 Oct2022	212	38	38	8	2	0	0
election.de	7 Oct2022	177	54	33	32	3	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	6 Oct2022	149	99	17	31	3	0	0
INSA	4 Oct2022	219	35	39	5	1	0	0
INSA	26 Sep2022	209	30	39	19	2	0	0
election.de	23 Sep2022	180	55	33	28	3	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	22 Sep2022	150	102	19	26	2	0	0
INSA	19 Sep2022	211	28	37	17	2	0	0
INSA	12 Sep2022	218	35	42	3	1	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	11 Sep2022	154	90	22	30	3	0	0
election.de	9 Sep2022	177	59	38	23	2	0	0
INSA	5 Sep2022	209	24	44	19	3	0	0
INSA	29 Aug2022	206	37	42	12	2	0	0
election.de	26 Aug2022	177	60	41	19	2	0	0
INSA	22 Aug2022	214	28	45	10	2	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	19 Aug2022	140	73	55	30	1	0	0
INSA	15 Aug2022	203	33	48	13	2	0	0
election.de	12 Aug2022	174	61	43	19	2	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	12 Aug2022	146	49	69	34	1	0	0
INSA	8 Aug2022	215	29	50	3	2	0	0
INSA	1 Aug2022	196	32	51	18	2	0	0
election.de	29 Jul2022	171	66	42	18	2	0	0
INSA	25 Jul2022	196	32	51	18	2	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	20 Jul2022	136	89	52	21	1	0	0
INSA	18 Jul2022	197	34	51	15	2	0	0
election.de	15 Jul2022	174	69	39	15	2	0	0
INSA	11 Jul2022	205	43	46	3	2	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	6 Jul2022	145	94	45	14	1	0	0
INSA	4 Jul2022	216	37	43	1	2	0	0
election.de	1 Jul2022	175	70	38	14	2	0	0
INSA	27 Jun2022	212	42	45	0	0	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	26 Jun2022	144	98	37	18	2	0	0
INSA	20 Jun2022	216	32	46	3	2	0	0
election.de	17 Jun2022	177	70	37	13	2	0	0
INSA	13 Jun2022	194	44	45	15	1	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	8 Jun2022	144	94	33	24	4	0	0
INSA	7 Jun2022	203	43	47	5	1	0	0
election.de	3 Jun2022	178	71	36	12	2	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	1 Jun2022	168	62	57	11	1	0	0
INSA	30 May2022	204	49	44	0	2	0	0
INSA	23 May2022	213	48	37	1	0	0	0
election.de	20 May2022	157	97	31	12	2	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	16 May2022	162	89	34	13	1	0	0
INSA	16 May2022	202	46	40	10	1	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	9 May2022	138	100	45	15	1	0	0
INSA	9 May2022	209	52	33	3	2	0	0
election.de	6 May2022	145	110	28	13	3	0	0
INSA	2 May2022	199	62	35	1	2	0	0
INSA	25 Apr2022	182	77	30	8	2	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	24 Apr2022	121	128	36	13	1	0	0
election.de	22 Apr2022	144	115	24	13	3	0	0
INSA	19 Apr2022	182	74	37	4	2	0	0
INSA	11 Apr2022	179	83	27	8	2	0	0
election.de	8 Apr2022	144	116	23	13	3	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	5 Apr2022	128	134	25	11	1	0	0
INSA	4 Apr2022	184	86	27	1	1	0	0
INSA	28 Mar2022	165	93	22	16	3	0	0
election.de	25 Mar2022	161	104	19	12	3	0	0
INSA	21 Mar2022	192	74	27	3	3	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	21 Mar2022	132	133	23	10	1	0	0
election.de	11 Mar2022	150	115	19	12	3	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	27 Feb2022	128	131	22	16	2	0	0
election.de	25 Feb2022	159	103	18	16	3	0	0
INSA	21 Feb2022	213	66	16	2	2	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	15 Feb2022	143	117	20	16	3	0	0
INSA	14 Feb2022	203	71	20	3	2	0	0
election.de	11 Feb2022	158	103	18	17	3	0	0
INSA	7 Feb2022	196	81	19	1	2	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	3 Feb2022	195	63	28	10	3	0	0
INSA	31 Jan2022	178	100	18	0	3	0	0
election.de	28 Jan2022	133	121	20	21	4	0	0
INSA	24 Jan2022	146	129	19	2	3	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	18 Jan2022	124	139	17	16	3	0	0
INSA	17 Jan2022	125	140	23	9	2	0	0
election.de	14 Jan2022	129	129	19	19	3	0	0
INSA	10 Jan2022	128	142	19	8	2	0	0
INSA	3 Jan2022	118	137	19	23	2	0	0
election.de	31 Dec2021	111	148	20	17	3	0	0
INSA	20 Dec2021	108	160	17	11	3	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	19 Dec2021	102	167	12	15	3	0	0
election.de	17 Dec2021	109	149	20	18	3	0	0
INSA	13 Dec2021	114	153	17	12	3	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	6 Dec2021	75	176	24	21	3	0	0
INSA	6 Dec2021	118	145	20	13	3	0	0
election.de	3 Dec2021	111	143	22	19	4	0	0
INSA	29 Nov2021	112	140	27	13	7	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	24 Nov2021	123	140	16	17	3	0	0
INSA	22 Nov2021	122	147	15	12	3	0	0
election.de	19 Nov2021	103	153	20	19	4	0	0
INSA	15 Nov2021	99	160	20	17	2	0	0
INSA	8 Nov2021	110	158	23	5	3	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	7 Nov2021	125	137	16	18	3	0	0
election.de	5 Nov2021	101	156	20	18	4	0	0
INSA	25 Oct2021	84	176	21	14	3	1	0
election.de	22 Oct2021	101	154	20	20	4	0	0
Wahlkreisprognose	10 Oct2021	113	145	20	18	3	0	0
election.de	8 Oct2021	108	148	20	19	4	0	0
INSA	4 Oct2021	94	163	21	19	2	0	0
2021 federal election	26 Sep2021	143	121	16	16	3	0	0

By probability

Polling firm	Release date	Union			SPD			Grüne			AfD			Linke
		Safe	Likely	Lean	Safe	Likely	Lean	Safe	Likely	Lean	Safe	Likely	Lean	Safe	Likely	Lean
2025 federal election	23 Feb2025	190			45			12			46			6
election.de	21 Feb2025	91	75	38	1	10	23	0	2	9	9	24	12	0	2	3
election.de	14 Feb2025	91	77	35	1	10	24	1	1	10	10	23	13	0	1	2
election.de	7 Feb2025	95	75	34	1	11	23	1	1	9	9	25	13	0	1	1
election.de	31 Jan2025	95	74	34	1	11	23	1	1	10	8	26	13	0	1	1
election.de	24 Jan2025	101	71	37	1	9	23	1	1	8	7	26	12	0	1	1
election.de	17 Jan2025	111	67	34	1	7	22	1	1	8	8	25	12	0	1	1
election.de	10 Jan2025	111	67	33	1	8	22	1	1	8	6	25	14	0	1	1
election.de	3 Jan2025	117	64	33	1	6	23	1	1	7	5	23	16	0	1	1
election.de	27 Dec2024	121	63	35	1	5	20	1	1	7	3	23	17	0	1	1
election.de	13 Dec2024	124	61	38	1	5	20	1	2	6	1	19	19	0	1	1
election.de	29 Nov2024	137	56	35	1	4	12	1	2	6	1	19	18	0	1	1
election.de	15 Nov2024	138	56	42	1	4	12	1	1	4	3	19	21	0	1	1
election.de	15 Oct2024	126	57	43	1	5	17	1	2	6	1	19	19	0	1	1
election.de	15 Sep2024	137	56	43	1	4	12	1	1	5	1	19	17	0	1	1
election.de	15 Aug2024	125	58	44	1	5	16	1	2	7	1	19	18	0	1	1
election.de	15 Jul2024	122	58	42	1	4	16	1	3	9	2	18	21	0	1	1
election.de	15 Jun2024	113	61	44	1	6	23	1	4	7	1	19	17	0	1	1
election.de	15 May2024	118	55	44	1	5	22	1	5	8	1	19	18	0	1	1
election.de	15 Apr2024	114	62	37	1	6	23	1	3	8	3	19	20	0	1	1
election.de	15 Mar2024	111	61	38	1	5	23	1	4	9	5	22	17	0	1	1
election.de	15 Feb2024	113	62	39	1	4	22	1	2	9	5	25	14	0	1	1
election.de	15 Jan2024	106	71	40	1	4	15	1	2	10	9	28	11	0	1	0
election.de	15 Dec2023	107	68	42	1	4	15	1	3	9	9	27	12	0	1	0
election.de	15 Nov2023	94	72	37	1	6	24	1	4	11	11	25	11	0	1	1
election.de	15 Oct2023	69	83	38	1	11	31	1	5	11	17	24	6	0	1	1
election.de	1 Sep2023	65	78	42	2	16	31	1	5	10	16	23	8	0	1	1
election.de	18 Aug2023	63	74	44	2	23	26	1	5	12	16	22	9	0	1	1
election.de	4 Aug2023	66	74	43	2	17	29	1	7	11	16	22	9	0	1	1
election.de	21 Jul2023	73	74	41	1	18	27	1	5	10	9	26	11	0	1	2
election.de	7 Jul2023	71	73	40	2	18	29	1	6	10	9	25	12	0	1	2
election.de	23 Jun2023	78	71	40	2	18	28	1	5	10	7	22	14	1	0	2
election.de	9 Jun2023	85	70	35	1	16	31	1	5	10	2	24	16	1	0	2
election.de	26 May2023	88	63	45	2	18	29	1	5	10	1	17	17	1	1	1
election.de	12 May2023	89	62	45	2	18	29	1	6	9	1	16	18	1	1	1
election.de	28 Apr2023	91	62	43	1	17	31	1	6	11	1	15	17	1	1	1
election.de	16 Apr2023	85	64	42	2	18	34	1	7	11	1	14	17	1	1	1
election.de	2 Apr2023	82	63	46	2	20	32	1	7	11	1	15	16	1	1	1
election.de	19 Mar2023	77	65	43	2	26	32	1	6	12	1	14	17	1	1	1
election.de	10 Mar2023	83	62	48	2	23	31	1	7	10	1	13	15	1	1	1
election.de	24 Feb2023	80	63	48	2	25	30	1	7	11	1	13	15	1	1	1
election.de	10 Feb2023	66	66	46	5	26	30	1	9	15	1	14	17	1	1	1
election.de	27 Jan2023	69	70	42	3	25	31	1	9	17	1	13	15	1	1	1
election.de	13 Jan2023	67	70	44	3	25	29	3	11	15	1	13	15	1	1	1
election.de	30 Dec2022	67	68	44	4	24	33	3	11	15	1	13	13	1	1	1
election.de	16 Dec2022	71	67	44	2	26	26	3	11	17	1	13	15	1	1	1
election.de	2 Dec2022	66	71	43	3	24	28	3	12	17	1	13	15	1	1	1
election.de	18 Nov2022	67	70	40	2	25	28	3	12	17	1	14	17	1	1	1
election.de	4 Nov2022	61	71	42	4	24	29	3	13	17	1	14	17	1	1	1
election.de	21 Oct2022	61	70	43	3	24	30	3	13	17	1	14	17	1	1	1
election.de	7 Oct2022	67	69	41	2	25	27	3	13	17	1	14	17	1	1	1
election.de	23 Sep2022	66	70	44	2	25	28	3	13	17	0	14	14	1	1	1
election.de	9 Sep2022	58	71	48	4	21	34	4	14	20	0	10	13	1	1	0
election.de	26 Aug2022	57	67	53	4	21	35	5	17	19	0	8	11	1	1	0
election.de	12 Aug2022	53	69	52	4	22	35	5	20	18	0	8	11	1	1	0
election.de	29 Jul2022	52	64	55	4	28	34	4	17	21	0	8	10	1	1	0
election.de	15 Jul2022	52	64	58	4	33	32	4	15	20	0	5	10	1	0	1
election.de	1 Jul2022	51	66	58	5	33	32	4	13	21	0	3	11	1	0	1
election.de	17 Jun2022	54	64	59	5	35	30	3	13	21	0	1	12	1	0	1
election.de	3 Jun2022	53	67	58	5	36	30	3	13	20	0	1	11	1	0	1
election.de	20 May2022	47	51	59	12	44	41	2	12	17	0	4	8	1	0	1
election.de	6 May2022	44	52	49	15	44	51	2	10	16	0	5	8	1	0	2
election.de	22 Apr2022	46	51	47	15	46	54	2	9	13	0	6	7	1	1	1
election.de	8 Apr2022	46	51	47	16	43	57	2	8	13	0	6	7	1	0	2
election.de	25 Mar2022	51	51	59	12	46	46	2	4	13	0	5	7	1	1	1
election.de	11 Mar2022	48	51	51	15	44	56	2	4	13	0	4	8	1	1	1
election.de	25 Feb2022	53	50	56	12	42	49	2	3	13	0	7	9	1	1	1
election.de	11 Feb2022	49	51	58	12	44	47	2	3	13	0	7	10	1	1	1
election.de	28 Jan2022	41	50	42	22	42	57	2	6	12	0	9	12	1	1	2
election.de	14 Jan2022	37	50	42	27	44	58	2	5	12	0	9	10	1	1	1
election.de	31 Dec2021	30	41	40	31	57	60	2	5	13	1	7	9	1	0	2
election.de	17 Dec2021	30	41	38	33	58	58	2	5	13	1	7	10	1	1	1
election.de	3 Dec2021	27	42	42	28	55	60	2	8	12	1	10	8	1	1	2
election.de	19 Nov2021	26	39	38	35	55	63	2	5	13	1	8	10	1	1	2
election.de	5 Nov2021	25	35	41	40	57	59	2	6	12	1	9	8	1	0	3
election.de	22 Oct2021	26	35	40	39	54	61	2	5	13	1	10	9	1	1	2
election.de	8 Oct2021	28	42	38	30	59	59	2	5	13	1	9	9	1	1	2
2021 federal election	26 Sep2021	143			121			16			16			3

Second place

Polling firm	Release date	SPD	Union	Grüne	AfD	Linke	FDP	FW
2025 federal election	23 Feb2025	112	83	22	78	4	0	0
election.de [30]	21 Feb2025	115	72	36	73	3	0	0
election.de [31]	14 Feb2025	114	74	35	73	3	0	0
election.de [32]	7 Feb2025	117	73	36	70	3	0	0
election.de [33]	31 Jan2025	117	74	35	70	3	0	0
election.de [34]	24 Jan2025	116	71	37	72	3	0	0
election.de [35]	17 Jan2025	115	72	36	73	3	0	0
election.de [36]	10 Jan2025	116	72	36	72	3	0	0
election.de [37]	3 Jan2025	118	73	38	67	3	0	0
election.de [38]	27 Dec2024	121	71	39	66	2	0	0
election.de [39]	13 Dec2024	128	70	35	63	3	0	0
election.de [40]	29 Nov2024	122	65	35	74	3	0	0
election.de [41]	15 Nov2024	128	58	37	74	2	0	0
election.de [42]	15 Oct2024	127	68	33	69	2	0	0
election.de [43]	15 Sep2024	127	58	37	75	2	0	0
election.de [44]	15 Aug2024	126	67	38	66	2	0	0
election.de [45]	15 Jul2024	122	71	38	66	2	0	0
election.de [46]	15 Jun2024	123	74	41	59	2	0	0
election.de [47]	15 May2024	117	74	48	58	2	0	0
election.de [48]	15 Apr2024	118	79	39	62	1	0	0
election.de [49]	15 Mar2024	113	80	39	66	1	0	0
election.de [50]	15 Feb2024	111	75	36	76	1	0	0
election.de [51]	15 Jan2024	102	72	34	88	3	0	0
election.de [52]	15 Dec2023	105	72	37	83	2	0	0
election.de [53]	15 Nov2023	105	81	32	79	2	0	0
election.de [54]	15 Oct2023	106	84	29	78	2	0	0
election.de [55]	1 Sep2023	108	89	30	70	2	0	0
election.de [56]	18 Aug2023	112	91	30	64	2	0	0
election.de [57]	4 Aug2023	111	90	32	64	2	0	0
election.de [58]	21 Jul2023	116	86	34	62	1	0	0
election.de [59]	7 Jul2023	118	89	34	57	1	0	0
election.de [60]	23 Jun2023	120	85	37	56	1	0	0
election.de [61]	9 Jun2023	123	87	38	50	1	0	0
election.de	26 May2023	130	82	44	42	1	0	0
election.de	12 May2023	132	82	45	39	1	0	0
election.de	28 Apr2023	135	83	43	37	1	0	0
election.de	16 Apr2023	132	87	44	35	1	0	0
election.de	2 Apr2023	132	87	44	35	1	0	0
election.de	19 Mar2023	133	92	45	27	2	0	0
election.de	10 Mar2023	136	86	47	28	2	0	0
election.de	24 Feb2023	137	87	45	28	2	0	0
election.de	10 Feb2023	137	92	44	24	2	0	0
election.de	27 Jan2023	128	92	52	25	2	0	0
election.de	13 Jan2023	127	91	55	24	2	0	0
election.de	30 Dec2022	126	92	54	25	2	0	0
election.de	16 Dec2022	125	91	57	24	2	0	0
election.de	2 Dec2022	123	92	58	24	2	0	0
election.de	18 Nov2022	121	95	59	22	2	0	0
election.de	4 Nov2022	123	95	57	22	2	0	0
election.de	21 Oct2022	122	94	59	22	2	0	0
election.de	7 Oct2022	119	95	62	21	2	0	0
election.de	23 Sep2022	118	92	64	23	2	0	0
election.de	9 Sep2022	117	90	72	16	4	0	0
election.de	26 Aug2022	116	88	74	18	3	0	0
election.de	12 Aug2022	117	90	73	15	4	0	0
election.de	29 Jul2022	122	89	71	13	4	0	0
election.de	15 Jul2022	124	87	70	14	4	0	0
election.de	1 Jul2022	124	88	69	14	4	0	0
election.de	17 Jun2022	129	88	65	13	4	0	0
election.de	3 Jun2022	132	87	65	11	4	0	0
election.de	20 May2022	128	99	55	14	3	0	0
election.de	6 May2022	127	114	43	13	2	0	0
election.de	22 Apr2022	127	113	42	13	4	0	0
election.de	8 Apr2022	127	114	42	13	3	0	0
election.de	25 Mar2022	135	102	42	15	4	1	0
election.de	11 Mar2022	130	112	41	12	4	0	0
election.de	25 Feb2022	135	109	35	15	4	0	0
election.de	11 Feb2022	137	103	38	16	4	0	0
election.de	28 Jan2022	122	120	40	13	4	0	0
election.de	14 Jan2022	120	125	36	13	4	1	0
election.de	31 Dec2021	111	135	35	12	4	2	0
election.de	17 Dec2021	110	135	34	14	4	2	0
election.de	3 Dec2021	104	126	46	17	4	2	0
election.de	19 Nov2021	104	133	41	15	4	2	0
election.de	5 Nov2021	108	128	41	17	3	2	0
election.de	22 Oct2021	103	130	40	19	5	2	0
election.de	8 Oct2021	107	129	39	18	4	2	0
2021 federal election	26 Sep2021	129	115	33	14	4	2	2

Bundestag projections

Thanks to direct votes in the 299 electoral districts and second votes or party lists, the Bundestag is formed, which from 2025 will now have 630 seats.

Bundestag projections

Polling firm	Release date	Union	SPD	Grüne	AfD	Linke	FDP	SSW	BSW
2025 federal election	23 Feb 2025	208	120	85	152	64	0	1	0
BUNKER	21 Feb2025	223	119	97	149	42	0	0	0
YouGov (MRP)	20 Feb2025	220	115	94	145	55	0	1	0

Notes

1. Rounded from 4.98%, which is below the threshold for parliamentary representation in Germany.
2. BSW was established as an official political party on 8 January 2024.
3. Coalition would break the Cordon sanitaire/Firewall against the far-right in Germany with the AfD.

References

1. "Truth in Polling". europeelects.eu. Europe Elects. Retrieved 21 January 2025.
2. "Sonntagsfrage – INSA (Wahlumfragen zur Bundestagswahl)". Wahlrecht.de.
3. DAWUM (22 February 2025). "Wahlumfrage zur Bundestagswahl von Institut Wahlkreisprognose". www.dawum.de (in German). Retrieved 22 February 2025.
4. "Sonntagsfrage – Ipsos (Wahlumfragen zur Bundestagswahl)". Wahlrecht.de.
5. "Sonntagsfrage – Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (Wahlumfragen zur Bundestagswahl)". Wahlrecht.de.
6. "Sonntagsfrage – Forsa (Wahlumfragen zur Bundestagswahl)". Wahlrecht.de.
7. "Sonntagsfrage – YouGov (Wahlumfragen zur Bundestagswahl)". Wahlrecht.de.
8. "Sonntagsfrage – Allensbach (Wahlumfragen zur Bundestagswahl)". Wahlrecht.de.
9. "Sonntagsfrage – GMS (Wahlumfragen zur Bundestagswahl)". Wahlrecht.de.
10. "YouGov's final MRP of the 2025 German election shows Merz on course to be next chancellor". yougov.co.uk. Retrieved 20 February 2025.
11. WAHLKREISPROGNOSE (18 February 2025). "Trends im Bund - Wahlkreisprognose.de". www.wahlkreisprognose.de (in German). Retrieved 18 February 2025.
12. https://legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2025/02/21/elections-allemandes-les-clefs-dun-scrutin-historique-sondages-exclusifs/–%5B%5D
13. WAHLKREISPROGNOSE (14 February 2025). "Bundestrend: Union gewinnt deutlich – SPD und Scholz im Abwärtsstrudel - Wahlkreisprognose.de". www.wahlkreisprognose.de (in German). Retrieved 16 February 2025.
14. "Sonntagsfrage – Infratest dimap (Wahlumfragen zur Bundestagswahl)". Wahlrecht.de.
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16. "AfD remain on course for record result in YouGov's second MRP model of the 2025 German election | YouGov". yougov.co.uk. Retrieved 7 February 2025.
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19. "'Utterly terrifying' poll reveals Elon Musk effect pushing far-right AfD closer to power in Germany)". The Independent . February 2025. Retrieved 3 February 2025.
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21. "Bundestrend: 37 Wahlkreise von Mandatskappung betroffen – Merz setzt sich von Scholz ab - Wahlkreisprognose.de". www.wahlkreisprognose.de. 25 January 2025.
22. "Bundestrend: Union und AfD gewinnen – SPD und Grüne verlieren - Wahlkreisprognose.de". www.wahlkreisprognose.de. 18 January 2025.
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24. "TRENDS IM BUND - Wahlkreisprognose.de". www.wahlkreisprognose.de. 30 March 2020.
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61. "Wahlkreis-Prognose".

External links

• Europe Elects (in English)
• Wahlrecht.de (in German)
• pollytix-Wahltrend (in German)
• DAWUM Wahltrend (in German)
• X: @Wahlen_DE (in German)