Opinion polling for the next German federal election

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In the run-up to the next German federal election following the recent 23 February 2025 election, which needs to take place before 26 March 2029, various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed below.

Electoral threshold of 5%

Seats in the Bundestag are allocated to parties that either receive at least 5 percent of proportional votes (called "second votes" in Germany as the option appears second on the ballot, after the constituency or "first" vote), or win at least three constituencies. For example, in the 2021 German federal election, Die Linke (The Left) won 3 constituencies and thus received proportional representation despite receiving just 4.9% of second votes. In 2022, this three constituency provision was abolished, but was later reinstated by the Federal Constitutional Court. In addition to Die Linke, this also benefits the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU) which competes only in Bavaria, and therefore has often been close to missing the 5% nationwide, despite regularly winning all constituencies in the state. As the CDU does not run in Bavaria, only a few polls show the CDU and CSU as separate parties, with most combining the CDU/CSU as the "Union". The two parties always coalition together in the federal level and agree on the vast majority of issues.

In the February 2025 snap election, both the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) narrowly failed to meet the 5% electoral threshold to gain parliamentary representation. Both of these parties are present in a few state parliaments and even in state governments, and are still regularly polled despite not being present in the current Bundestag.

Some polls include the Free Voters (FW), a name originally used by unaffiliated groups in local elections, which as a party are present in three state parliaments (Bavaria, Rhineland-Palatinate and Saxony) and one state government coalition (Bavaria). Other parties are categorised as "others".

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is considered far-right by all other major parties, they have joined a "firewall" policy that rejects cooperation with the party, with some having attempted to have it declared illegal. Thus, for the time being, two-party or three-party government coalitions on federal and state levels are formed by CDU/CSU and SPD with various degree of support from Greens, Left, FDP, BSW, and FW. Single party governments have been rare in recent German history, with only a few examples in state governments.

Reliability of pollsters

The poll aggregator Europe Elects provides a list of past pollster accuracy and conflict of interest on its website. The organization includes Allensbach, Forsa, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, GMS, Infratest dimap, INSA, Ipsos, Verian, YouGov, pollytix, Trend research, and pmg - policy matters in its databases and highlights their reliability and transparency. All of them are part of professional pollster associations. Civey is excluded and their lack of methodological rigour referenced. Below-listed Wahlkreisprognose and America-based Democracy Institute are excluded from Europe Elects's coverage. The poll aggregator points out that they have no membership in a professional association. [1]

Poll results

Graphical summary

Opinion polling for the 2029 German federal election using Local regression (LOESS) of polls conducted. Opinion polls Germany 2029.svg
Opinion polling for the 2029 German federal election using Local regression (LOESS) of polls conducted.

2025

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		Abs. Union AfD SPD Grüne Linke BSW FDP OthersLead
INSA [2] 29 Aug – 1 Sep 20252,004–25.52514.5111143.55.50.5
INSA [2] 25–29 Aug 20251,202–26251511114351
INSA [2] 22–25 Aug 20252,002–25251510.5114.53.55.5Tie
Forsa [3] 19–25 Aug 20252,5012625261312113371
INSA [2] 18–22 Aug 20251,201–2525151111436Tie
YouGov [4] 15–18 Aug 20251,831–27251412105342
INSA [2] 15–18 Aug 20252,010–262514.51110544.51
Forsa [3] 12–18 Aug 20252,502–25261312123361
INSA [2] 11–15 Aug 20251,206–2625151194461
Allensbach [5] 1–14 Aug 20251,051–2822.5161110444.55.5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [6] 11–13 Aug 20251,3701527231512113364
Verian [7] 6–12 Aug 20251,464–26251412103461
INSA [2] 8–11 Aug 20252,008–272514.510.59.54.53.55.52
Forsa [3] 5–11 Aug 20252,5052524261313114362
INSA [2] 3–8 Aug 20251,204–2725151194452
Infratest dimap [8] 4–6 Aug 20251,321–27241312103473
INSA [2] 1–4 Aug 20252,004–27.52514.510.59.54.535.52.5
Forsa [3] 29 Jul – 4 Aug 20252,503242525131212436Tie
Ipsos [9] 1–3 Aug 20251,000–2525151111535Tie
INSA [2] 28 Jul – 1 Aug 20251,203–27251511104352
Verian [7] 23–29 Jul 20251,473–27241412113453
INSA [2] 25–28 Jul 20252,006–27.52414.510.5104.53.55.53.5
Forsa [3] 22–28 Jul 20252,5022426251312123361
INSA [2] 21–25 Jul 20251,203–27241511104363
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [6] 22–24 Jul 20251,3671327241511113363
INSA [2] 18–21 Jul 20252,005–27.5241410.510.54.53.55.53.5
Forsa [3] 15–21 Jul 20252,502–2525131212436Tie
INSA [2] 14–18 Jul 20251,205–27241511115343
Allensbach [5] 4–16 Jul 20251,054–2923151293.544.56
YouGov [4] 11–14 Jul 20251,820–27251411105352
INSA [2] 11–14 Jul 20252,004–27.523.5151110.54.53.54.54
Forsa [3] 8–14 Jul 20252,503–26241312114462
INSA [2] 7–11 Jul 20251,202–28241511114344
INSA [2] 4–7 Jul 20252,007–2823.514.511114.53.544.5
Forsa [3] 1–7 Jul 20252,503–27241312114363
Ipsos [9] 4–5 Jul 20251,000–26241512124342
INSA [2] 30 Jun – 4 Jul 20251,205–28241511114434
Infratest dimap [8] 30 Jun – 2 Jul 20251,312–30231312104357
INSA [2] 27–30 Jun 20252,008–2823.515.511.59.553.53.54.5
GMS [10] 25–30 Jun 20251,007–2922151393457
Forsa [3] 24–30 Jun 20252,5012428241411113364
INSA [2] 23–27 Jun 20251,202–2824161195344
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [6] 24–26 Jun 20251,3781329221512103367
INSA [2] 20–23 Jun 20252,002–27.5231611.5104.543.54.5
Forsa [3] 17–20 Jun 20252,0032128241411113364
INSA [2] 16–20 Jun 20251,205–2823161194455
Verian [7] 11–17 Jun 20251,462–28231512104355
YouGov [4] 13–16 Jun 20251,912–2823141285355
INSA [2] 13–16 Jun 20252,006–27231611.510.54444
Forsa [3] 10–16 Jun 20252,502–28231411104465
INSA [2] 10–13 Jun 20251,203–27231711104444
Allensbach [5] 1–12 Jun 20251,054–2923161194446
INSA [2] 6–10 Jun 20252,004–27.522.51611104.544.55
Forsa [3] 3–6 Jun 20252,0022127241411113463
INSA [2] 2–6 Jun 20251,202–27231611104454
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [6] 3–5 Jun 20251,2471327231512113364
Infratest dimap [8] 2–3 Jun 20251,292–2923151294446
INSA [2] 30 May – 2 Jun 20252,002–26.524.51610.510.54442
pollytix [11] 28 May – 2 Jun 20251,561–27231611105354
Forsa [3] 27 May – 2 Jun 20252,0022027231512113364
Ipsos [9] 30 May – 1 Jun 20251,000–27231611114354
INSA [2] 26–30 May 20252,002–26241710114442
INSA [2] 23–26 May 20252,006–2624.51611104.53.54.51.5
Forsa [3] 20–26 May 20252,5012026241511113462
INSA [2] 19–23 May 20251,198–27241611104443
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [6] 20–22 May 20251,3281026231612103463
Verian [7] 14–20 May 20251,468–26231512114363
INSA [2] 16–19 May 20252,008–2624.515.5111043.55.51.5
GMS [10] 14–19 May 20251,012–26231412104473
Forsa [3] 13–19 May 20252,5042026241511113462
INSA [2] 12–16 May 20251,205–26251611104351
pollytix [11] 13–15 Apr 20251,514–27251511105342
Allensbach [5] 3–14 May 20251,032–2822.5171110434.55.5
YouGov [4] 9–12 May 20251,927–2725151294342
INSA [2] 9–12 May 20252,004–2524.516111043.560.5
Forsa [3] 5–12 May 20253,001–2525151110437Tie
Ipsos [9] 9–10 May 20251,000–2525151210544Tie
INSA [2] 5–9 May 20251,203–25241611104461
Infratest dimap [8] 5–6 May 20251,325–27231611104454
INSA [2] 2–5 May 20252,003–24.524.5161110446Tie
Forsa [3] 29 Apr – 2 May 20251,503212525151210337Tie
INSA [2] 28 Apr – 2 May 20251,204–25241612104451
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [6] 28–30 Apr 20251,297927231511103474
Wahlkreisprognose [12] 27–30 Apr 20251,000–2624.516.51210.53.5431.5
YouGov [4] 25–28 Apr 20252,275–2626141210543Tie
INSA [2] 25–28 Apr 20252,006–252515.51110436.5Tie
Forsa [3] 22–28 Apr 20252,0042224261412104372
INSA [2] 22–25 Apr 20251,204–2525151210436Tie
INSA [2] 17–22 Apr 20252,010–252515111053.55.5Tie
Verian [7] 15–22 Apr 20251,469–2624161294362
Forsa [3] 15–17 Apr 20251,502–2526151194461
INSA [2] 14–17 Apr 20251,205–25241611105451
INSA [2] 11–14 Apr 20252,002–25.524.51611104.53.551
Forsa [3] 8–14 Apr 20252,5022125241512104371
INSA [2] 7–11 Apr 20251,202–25241611105361
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [6] 8–10 Apr 20251,322926241512103462
Allensbach [5] 28 Mar – 9 Apr 20251,048–2723.5161210434.53.5
INSA [2] 4–7 Apr 20252,008–24.524.51610.510.54.545.5Tie
GMS [10] 2–7 Apr 20251,022–26251511104451
Forsa [3] 1–7 Apr 20252,5011925241512104371
Ipsos [9] 4–5 Apr 20251,000–24251511115451
INSA [2] 31 Mar – 4 Apr 20251,206–2424161111446Tie
Infratest dimap [8] 31 Mar – 2 Apr 20251,334–26241611104452
INSA [2] 28–31 Mar 20252,006–26.523.515.51210.54.53.543
Forsa [3] 25–31 Mar 20252,508–25241512104461
INSA [2] 24–28 Mar 20251,204–26231612105353
Verian [7] 19–25 Mar 20251,381–27221513104365
YouGov [4] 21–24 Mar 20251,890–26241512105342
INSA [2] 21–24 Mar 20252,004–2723.514.51210.54.53.54.53.5
Forsa [3] 18–24 Mar 20252,502–26231512104463
INSA [2] 17–21 Mar 20251,202–27231512105354
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [6] 18–20 Mar 20251,3051127221612103465
INSA [2] 14–17 Mar 20252,008–292215.51110.55347
Forsa [3] 11–17 Mar 20252,501–27231412113464
INSA [2] 10–14 Mar 20251,201–28221611105356
Allensbach [5] 27 Feb – 11 Mar 20251,031–29211611.5104358
INSA [2] 7–10 Mar 20252,003–28.52216.510.510.54.53.546.5
Forsa [3] 4–10 Mar 20252,504–28221511113466
INSA [2] 3–7 Mar 20251,201–28211611105457
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [6] 4–6 Mar 20251,249828211513103467
Infratest dimap [8] 4–5 Mar 20251,325–2921161295358
INSA [2] 28 Feb – 3 Mar 20252,002–29.52215.5119.553.547.5
Forsa [3] 24 Feb – 3 Mar 20253,0011628221511123366
Ipsos [9] 28 Feb – 1 Mar 20251,000–2922151295457
INSA [2] 24–28 Feb 20251,001–3022151195448
2025 federal election 23 Feb 2025–17.528.520.816.411.68.85.0 [a] 4.34.67.7

CDU and CSU

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		 CDU AfD SPD Grüne Linke CSU BSW FDP OthersLead
INSA 22–25 Aug 20252,00218.525.015.010.511.06.54.53.55.56.5
INSA 15–18 Aug 20252,01021.525.014.511.010.04.55.04.04.53.5
INSA 8–11 Aug 20252,00821.025.014.510.59.56.04.53.55.54.0
INSA 1–4 Aug 20252,00422.025.014.510.59.55.54.53.05.53.0
INSA 25–28 Jul 20252,00621.524.014.510.510.06.04.53.55.52.5
INSA 18–21 Jul 20252,00521.024.014.010.510.56.54.53.55.53.0
INSA 11–14 Jul 20252,00421.023.515.011.010.56.54.53.54.52.5
INSA 4–7 Jul 20252,00722.023.514.511.011.06.04.53.54.01.5
INSA 27–30 Jun 20252,00822.523.515.511.59.55.55.03.53.51.0
INSA 20–23 Jun 20252,00221.523.016.011.510.06.04.54.03.51.5
INSA 13–16 Jun 20252,00621.523.016.011.510.55.54.04.04.01.5
INSA 6–10 Jun 20252,00420.522.516.011.010.07.04.54.04.52.0
INSA 30 May – 2 Jun 20252,00221.024.516.010.510.55.54.04.04.03.5
INSA 23–26 May 20252,00621.024.516.011.010.05.04.53.54.53.5
INSA 16–19 May 20252,00820.524.515.511.010.05.54.03.55.54.0
INSA 9–12 May 20252,00420.524.516.011.010.04.54.03.56.04.0
INSA 2–5 May 20252,00319.024.516.011.010.05.54.04.06.05.5
INSA 25–28 Apr 20252,00619.525.015.511.010.05.54.03.06.55.5
INSA 17–22 Apr 20252,01019.525.015.011.010.05.55.03.55.55.5
INSA 11–14 Apr 20252,00220.024.516.011.010.05.54.53.55.04.5
INSA 4–7 Apr 20252,00818.524.516.010.510.56.04.54.05.56.0
INSA 28–31 Mar 20252,00621.023.515.512.010.55.54.53.54.02.5
INSA 21–24 Mar 20252,00421.023.514.512.010.56.04.53.54.52.5
INSA 14–17 Mar 20252,00823.522.015.511.010.55.55.03.04.01.5
INSA 7–10 Mar 20252,00322.522.016.510.510.56.04.53.54.00.5
INSA 28 Feb – 3 Mar 20252,00223.022.015.511.09.56.55.03.54.01.0
2025 federal election 23 Feb 2025–22.620.816.411.68.86.05.0 [a] 4.34.61.8

Scenario polls

Voting intention after hypothetical AfD ban

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		 Union AfD SPD Grüne Linke BSW FDP OthersLead
INSA 5–9 May 20251,20330–191312116911
2025 federal election 23 Feb 2025–28.520.816.411.68.84.984.34.67.7

By Western and Eastern Germany

Western Germany

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		 Union AfD SPD Grüne Linke BSW FDP OthersLead
YouGov 15–18 Aug 20251,418 in West Germany2923151394446
INSA 8–11 Aug 20252,008 in all of Germany2922161284367
YouGov 11–14 Jul 20251,420 in West Germany29221512104357
INSA 27–30 Jun 20252,008 in all of Germany2921171294448
YouGov 13–16 Jun 20251,491 in West Germany3021161474459
YouGov 9–12 May 20251,477 in West Germany2922161483357
YouGov 25–28 Apr 20251,520 in West Germany28231512104435
INSA 11–14 Apr 20252,002 in all of Germany2821171294457
YouGov 21–24 Mar 20251,451 in West Germany2921161395458
2025 federal election 23 Feb 2025–30.717.917.612.77.94.63.94.812.8

Eastern Germany

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		 AfD Union Linke SPD BSW Grüne FDP OthersLead
YouGov 15–18 Aug 2025413 in East Germany3618139963518
INSA 8–11 Aug 20252,008 in all of Germany37171510744620
YouGov 11–14 Jul 2025400 in East Germany3617139774619
INSA 27–30 Jun 20252,008 in all of Germany34231310972211
YouGov 13–16 Jun 2025421 in East Germany32221410792510
YouGov 9–12 May 2025450 in East Germany36191210875217
YouGov 25–28 Apr 2025467 in East Germany35171211884518
INSA 11–14 Apr 20252,002 in all of Germany38181210873420
YouGov 21–24 Mar 2025439 in East Germany35181511782317
2025 federal election 23 Feb 2025–34.618.412.810.99.96.53.13.716.2

Chancellor polling

Merz vs. Weidel

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		 Merz
Union 		Weidel
AfD 		Neither
INSA 27–30 Jun 20252,008362737
INSA 11–14 Apr 20252,002342640
INSA 28–31 Mar 20252,006352738
INSA 21–24 Mar 20252,004372835

Preferred coalition

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		 Union
AfD [b] 		Union
SPD
Grüne 		SPD
Grüne
Linke 		Union
SPD
Linke		 Union
INSA 27–30 Jun 20252,00824131399
INSA 11–14 Apr 20252,0022619–159
INSA 4–7 Apr 20252,0082719–1410

Constituency projections

With the new electoral reform, constituency seats are only awarded if covered by the votes cast for the party in that state. As such, the number of constituency seats won by a party may be lower than that party's number of constituency pluralities. [13]

Constituency pluralities

Polling firmRelease date Union AfD SPD Grüne Linke
INSA 25 Aug 20251597348127
INSA 18 Aug 20251776141128
election.de 15 Aug 20251884941147
INSA 11 Aug 20251975529108
INSA 4 Aug 20251945436105
INSA 28 Jul 2025195513896
INSA 21 Jul 20252045326106
election.de 15 Jul 20251974836117
INSA 14 Jul 20251914940136
INSA 7 Jul 20252055026135
INSA 30 Jun 20251904643146
INSA 23 Jun 20251864747136
INSA 16 Jun 20251844846165
election.de 15 Jun 20251894941137
INSA 10 Jun 20251954744103
INSA 2 Jun 2025182525294
INSA 26 May 20251745452136
INSA 19 May 20251805544155
election.de 15 May 20251815146138
INSA 12 May 20251606160144
INSA 5 May 20251576657145
INSA 28 Apr 20251586951165
INSA 22 Apr 20251745848145
election.de 15 Apr 20251815047147
INSA 14 Apr 20251655059205
INSA 7 Apr 20251606556135
INSA 31 Mar 20251784851166
INSA 24 Mar 20251925235128
INSA 17 Mar 2025199444079
election.de 15 Mar 20251924543118
INSA 10 Mar 2025189415586
2025 federal election 23 Feb 20251904645126

By probability

Polling firmRelease date Union AfD SPD Grüne Linke
SafeLikelyLeanSafeLikelyLeanSafeLikelyLeanSafeLikelyLeanSafeLikelyLean
election.de 15 Aug 202558854533106114260311232
election.de 15 Jul 20258078393111611322038232
election.de 15 Jun 202557874533106214250310241
election.de 15 May 20253895483597213310310242
election.de 15 Apr 20254193473596313310311241
election.de 15 Mar 20258275353111331228029242
2025 federal election 23 Feb 20251904645126

Second place

Polling firmRelease date SPD Union AfD Grüne Linke
election.de 15 Aug 20258080114214
election.de 15 Jul 20258978104244
election.de 15 Jun 20258179113224
election.de 15 May 20257281122213
election.de 15 Apr 20257582117214
election.de 15 Mar 2025948296243
2025 federal election 23 Feb 20251118279225

Notes

  1. 1 2 Rounded from 4.98%, which is below the threshold for parliamentary representation in Germany.
  2. ↑ Coalition would break the cordon sanitaire /firewall against the far-right in Germany with the AfD.

References

  1. ↑ "Truth in Polling". europeelects.eu. Europe Elects. Retrieved 21 January 2025.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 "Sonntagsfrage – INSA (Wahlumfragen zur Bundestagswahl)". Wahlrecht.de.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 "Sonntagsfrage – Forsa (Wahlumfragen zur Bundestagswahl)". Wahlrecht.de (in German).
  4. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Sonntagsfrage – YouGov (Wahlumfragen zur Bundestagswahl)". Wahlrecht.de (in German). Retrieved 26 March 2025.
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Allensbach (Institut für Demoskopie)". Wahlrecht.de (in German). Retrieved 27 March 2025.
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 "Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (Wahlumfragen zur Bundestagswahl)". Wahlrecht.de (in German).
  7. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Verian (Kantar Public, Emnid)". Wahlrecht.de (in German). Retrieved 28 March 2025.
  8. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Sonntagsfrage – Infratest dimap (Wahlumfragen zur Bundestagswahl)". Wahlrecht.de (in German).
  9. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Sonntagsfrage – Ipsos (Wahlumfragen zur Bundestagswahl)". Wahlrecht.de (in German).
  10. 1 2 3 "GMS (Gesellschaft für Markt- und Sozialforschung)". Wahlrecht.de (in German). Retrieved 7 April 2025.
  11. 1 2 "Sonntagsfrage Bundestagswahl (weitere Institute)". Wahlrecht.de (in German).
  12. ↑ "Trends im Bund". wahlkreisprognose.de.
  13. ↑ Kornmeier, Claudia. "Was das neue Wahlrecht vorsieht". tagesschau.de (in German). Retrieved 28 September 2024.
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