Opinion polling for the next German federal election

In the run-up to the next German federal election following the recent 23 February 2025 election, which needs to take place before 26 March 2029, various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed below.

Electoral threshold of 5%

Seats in the Bundestag are allocated to parties that either receive at least 5 percent of proportional votes (called "second votes" in Germany as the option appears second on the ballot, after the constituency or "first" vote), or win at least three constituencies. For example, in the 2021 German federal election, Die Linke (The Left) won 3 constituencies and thus received proportional representation despite receiving just 4.9% of second votes. In 2022, this three constituency provision was abolished, but was later reinstated by the Federal Constitutional Court. In addition to Die Linke, this also benefits the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU) which competes only in Bavaria, and therefore has often been close to missing the 5% nationwide, despite regularly winning all constituencies in the state. As the CDU does not run in Bavaria, only a few polls show the CDU and CSU as separate parties, with most combining the CDU/CSU as the "Union". The two parties always coalition together in the federal level and agree on the vast majority of issues.

In the February 2025 snap election, both the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) narrowly failed to meet the 5% electoral threshold to gain parliamentary representation. Both of these parties are present in a few state parliaments and even in state governments, and are still regularly polled despite not being present in the current Bundestag.

Some polls include the Free Voters (FW), a name originally used by unaffiliated groups in local elections, which as a party are present in three state parliaments (Bavaria, Rhineland-Palatinate and Saxony) and one state government coalition (Bavaria). Other parties are categorised as "others".

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is considered far-right by all other major parties, they have joined a "firewall" policy that rejects cooperation with the party, with some having attempted to have it declared illegal. Thus, for the time being, two-party or three-party government coalitions on federal and state levels are formed by CDU/CSU and SPD with various degree of support from Greens, Left, FDP, BSW, and FW. Single party governments have been rare in recent German history, with only a few examples in state governments.

Reliability of pollsters

The poll aggregator Europe Elects provides a list of past pollster accuracy and conflict of interest on its website. The organization includes Allensbach, Forsa, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, GMS, Infratest dimap, INSA, Ipsos, Verian, YouGov, pollytix, Trend research, and pmg - policy matters in its databases and highlights their reliability and transparency. All of them are part of professional pollster associations. Civey is excluded and their lack of methodological rigour referenced. Below-listed Wahlkreisprognose and America-based Democracy Institute are excluded from Europe Elects's coverage. The poll aggregator points out that they have no membership in a professional association. ^[1]

Poll results

Graphical summary

Opinion polling for the 2029 German federal election using Local regression (LOESS) of polls conducted.

2025

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Abs.	Union	AfD	SPD	Grüne	Linke	BSW	FDP	Others	Lead
INSA [2]	15–19 Sep 2025	1,200	–	25	26	15	11	11	4	3	5	1
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [3]	16–18 Sep 2025	1,419	14	26	26	15	10	11	3	3	6	Tie
YouGov [4]	12–15 Sep 2025	1,649	–	26	27	15	11	9	5	4	4	1
INSA [2]	12–15 Sep 2025	2,004	–	25.5	25.5	14.5	11.5	11	4	3	5	Tie
Forsa [5]	9–15 Sep 2025	2,502	–	25	25	14	12	11	4	3	6	Tie
INSA [2]	8–12 Sep 2025	1,204	–	25	25	14	12	11	4	3	6	Tie
Verian [6]	3–9 Sep 2025	1,460	–	26	25	15	11	11	4	3	5	1
INSA [2]	5–8 Sep 2025	2,006	–	25.5	25.5	14.5	11	10	4.5	3.5	5.5	Tie
Forsa [5]	2–8 Sep 2025	2,500	25	25	26	14	11	12	3	3	7	1
Ipsos [7]	5–7 Sep 2025	1,000	–	24	25	15	12	12	4	3	5	1
INSA [2]	1–5 Sep 2025	1,287	–	26	25	15	12	11	4	3	4	1
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [3]	2–4 Sep 2025	1,269	14	27	25	15	11	10	3	3	6	2
Infratest dimap [8]	1–2 Sep 2025	1,342	–	27	25	14	11	10	4	3	6	2
pollytix [9]	26 Aug – 2 Sep 2025	1,533	–	27	25	16	11	9	5	4	3	2
INSA [2]	29 Aug – 1 Sep 2025	2,004	–	25.5	25	14.5	11	11	4	3.5	5.5	0.5
Forsa [5]	26 Aug – 1 Sep 2025	2,502	25	25	26	14	11	12	3	3	7	1
INSA [2]	25–29 Aug 2025	1,202	–	26	25	15	11	11	4	3	5	1
INSA [2]	22–25 Aug 2025	2,002	–	25	25	15	10.5	11	4.5	3.5	5.5	Tie
Forsa [5]	19–25 Aug 2025	2,501	26	25	26	13	12	11	3	3	7	1
INSA [2]	18–22 Aug 2025	1,201	–	25	25	15	11	11	4	3	6	Tie
YouGov [4]	15–18 Aug 2025	1,831	–	27	25	14	12	10	5	3	4	2
INSA [2]	15–18 Aug 2025	2,010	–	26	25	14.5	11	10	5	4	4.5	1
Forsa [5]	12–18 Aug 2025	2,502	–	25	26	13	12	12	3	3	6	1
INSA [2]	11–15 Aug 2025	1,206	–	26	25	15	11	9	4	4	6	1
Allensbach [10]	1–14 Aug 2025	1,051	–	28	22.5	16	11	10	4	4	4.5	5.5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [3]	11–13 Aug 2025	1,370	15	27	23	15	12	11	3	3	6	4
Verian [6]	6–12 Aug 2025	1,464	–	26	25	14	12	10	3	4	6	1
INSA [2]	8–11 Aug 2025	2,008	–	27	25	14.5	10.5	9.5	4.5	3.5	5.5	2
Forsa [5]	5–11 Aug 2025	2,505	25	24	26	13	13	11	4	3	6	2
INSA [2]	3–8 Aug 2025	1,204	–	27	25	15	11	9	4	4	5	2
Infratest dimap [8]	4–6 Aug 2025	1,321	–	27	24	13	12	10	3	4	7	3
INSA [2]	1–4 Aug 2025	2,004	–	27.5	25	14.5	10.5	9.5	4.5	3	5.5	2.5
Forsa [5]	29 Jul – 4 Aug 2025	2,503	24	25	25	13	12	12	4	3	6	Tie
Ipsos [7]	1–3 Aug 2025	1,000	–	25	25	15	11	11	5	3	5	Tie
INSA [2]	28 Jul – 1 Aug 2025	1,203	–	27	25	15	11	10	4	3	5	2
Verian [6]	23–29 Jul 2025	1,473	–	27	24	14	12	11	3	4	5	3
INSA [2]	25–28 Jul 2025	2,006	–	27.5	24	14.5	10.5	10	4.5	3.5	5.5	3.5
Forsa [5]	22–28 Jul 2025	2,502	24	26	25	13	12	12	3	3	6	1
INSA [2]	21–25 Jul 2025	1,203	–	27	24	15	11	10	4	3	6	3
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [3]	22–24 Jul 2025	1,367	13	27	24	15	11	11	3	3	6	3
INSA [2]	18–21 Jul 2025	2,005	–	27.5	24	14	10.5	10.5	4.5	3.5	5.5	3.5
Forsa [5]	15–21 Jul 2025	2,502	–	25	25	13	12	12	4	3	6	Tie
INSA [2]	14–18 Jul 2025	1,205	–	27	24	15	11	11	5	3	4	3
Allensbach [10]	4–16 Jul 2025	1,054	–	29	23	15	12	9	3.5	4	4.5	6
YouGov [4]	11–14 Jul 2025	1,820	–	27	25	14	11	10	5	3	5	2
INSA [2]	11–14 Jul 2025	2,004	–	27.5	23.5	15	11	10.5	4.5	3.5	4.5	4
Forsa [5]	8–14 Jul 2025	2,503	–	26	24	13	12	11	4	4	6	2
INSA [2]	7–11 Jul 2025	1,202	–	28	24	15	11	11	4	3	4	4
INSA [2]	4–7 Jul 2025	2,007	–	28	23.5	14.5	11	11	4.5	3.5	4	4.5
Forsa [5]	1–7 Jul 2025	2,503	–	27	24	13	12	11	4	3	6	3
Ipsos [7]	4–5 Jul 2025	1,000	–	26	24	15	12	12	4	3	4	2
INSA [2]	30 Jun – 4 Jul 2025	1,205	–	28	24	15	11	11	4	4	3	4
Infratest dimap [8]	30 Jun – 2 Jul 2025	1,312	–	30	23	13	12	10	4	3	5	7
INSA [2]	27–30 Jun 2025	2,008	–	28	23.5	15.5	11.5	9.5	5	3.5	3.5	4.5
GMS [11]	25–30 Jun 2025	1,007	–	29	22	15	13	9	3	4	5	7
Forsa [5]	24–30 Jun 2025	2,501	24	28	24	14	11	11	3	3	6	4
INSA [2]	23–27 Jun 2025	1,202	–	28	24	16	11	9	5	3	4	4
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [3]	24–26 Jun 2025	1,378	13	29	22	15	12	10	3	3	6	7
INSA [2]	20–23 Jun 2025	2,002	–	27.5	23	16	11.5	10	4.5	4	3.5	4.5
Forsa [5]	17–20 Jun 2025	2,003	21	28	24	14	11	11	3	3	6	4
INSA [2]	16–20 Jun 2025	1,205	–	28	23	16	11	9	4	4	5	5
Verian [6]	11–17 Jun 2025	1,462	–	28	23	15	12	10	4	3	5	5
YouGov [4]	13–16 Jun 2025	1,912	–	28	23	14	12	8	5	3	5	5
INSA [2]	13–16 Jun 2025	2,006	–	27	23	16	11.5	10.5	4	4	4	4
Forsa [5]	10–16 Jun 2025	2,502	–	28	23	14	11	10	4	4	6	5
INSA [2]	10–13 Jun 2025	1,203	–	27	23	17	11	10	4	4	4	4
Allensbach [10]	1–12 Jun 2025	1,054	–	29	23	16	11	9	4	4	4	6
INSA [2]	6–10 Jun 2025	2,004	–	27.5	22.5	16	11	10	4.5	4	4.5	5
Forsa [5]	3–6 Jun 2025	2,002	21	27	24	14	11	11	3	4	6	3
INSA [2]	2–6 Jun 2025	1,202	–	27	23	16	11	10	4	4	5	4
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [3]	3–5 Jun 2025	1,247	13	27	23	15	12	11	3	3	6	4
Infratest dimap [8]	2–3 Jun 2025	1,292	–	29	23	15	12	9	4	4	4	6
INSA [2]	30 May – 2 Jun 2025	2,002	–	26.5	24.5	16	10.5	10.5	4	4	4	2
pollytix [9]	28 May – 2 Jun 2025	1,561	–	27	23	16	11	10	5	3	5	4
Forsa [5]	27 May – 2 Jun 2025	2,002	20	27	23	15	12	11	3	3	6	4
Ipsos [7]	30 May – 1 Jun 2025	1,000	–	27	23	16	11	11	4	3	5	4
INSA [2]	26–30 May 2025	2,002	–	26	24	17	10	11	4	4	4	2
INSA [2]	23–26 May 2025	2,006	–	26	24.5	16	11	10	4.5	3.5	4.5	1.5
Forsa [5]	20–26 May 2025	2,501	20	26	24	15	11	11	3	4	6	2
INSA [2]	19–23 May 2025	1,198	–	27	24	16	11	10	4	4	4	3
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [3]	20–22 May 2025	1,328	10	26	23	16	12	10	3	4	6	3
Verian [6]	14–20 May 2025	1,468	–	26	23	15	12	11	4	3	6	3
INSA [2]	16–19 May 2025	2,008	–	26	24.5	15.5	11	10	4	3.5	5.5	1.5
GMS [11]	14–19 May 2025	1,012	–	26	23	14	12	10	4	4	7	3
Forsa [5]	13–19 May 2025	2,504	20	26	24	15	11	11	3	4	6	2
INSA [2]	12–16 May 2025	1,205	–	26	25	16	11	10	4	3	5	1
pollytix [9]	13–15 Apr 2025	1,514	–	27	25	15	11	10	5	3	4	2
Allensbach [10]	3–14 May 2025	1,032	–	28	22.5	17	11	10	4	3	4.5	5.5
YouGov [4]	9–12 May 2025	1,927	–	27	25	15	12	9	4	3	4	2
INSA [2]	9–12 May 2025	2,004	–	25	24.5	16	11	10	4	3.5	6	0.5
Forsa [5]	5–12 May 2025	3,001	–	25	25	15	11	10	4	3	7	Tie
Ipsos [7]	9–10 May 2025	1,000	–	25	25	15	12	10	5	4	4	Tie
INSA [2]	5–9 May 2025	1,203	–	25	24	16	11	10	4	4	6	1
Infratest dimap [8]	5–6 May 2025	1,325	–	27	23	16	11	10	4	4	5	4
INSA [2]	2–5 May 2025	2,003	–	24.5	24.5	16	11	10	4	4	6	Tie
Forsa [5]	29 Apr – 2 May 2025	1,503	21	25	25	15	12	10	3	3	7	Tie
INSA [2]	28 Apr – 2 May 2025	1,204	–	25	24	16	12	10	4	4	5	1
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [3]	28–30 Apr 2025	1,297	9	27	23	15	11	10	3	4	7	4
Wahlkreisprognose [12]	27–30 Apr 2025	1,000	–	26	24.5	16.5	12	10.5	3.5	4	3	1.5
YouGov [4]	25–28 Apr 2025	2,275	–	26	26	14	12	10	5	4	3	Tie
INSA [2]	25–28 Apr 2025	2,006	–	25	25	15.5	11	10	4	3	6.5	Tie
Forsa [5]	22–28 Apr 2025	2,004	22	24	26	14	12	10	4	3	7	2
INSA [2]	22–25 Apr 2025	1,204	–	25	25	15	12	10	4	3	6	Tie
INSA [2]	17–22 Apr 2025	2,010	–	25	25	15	11	10	5	3.5	5.5	Tie
Verian [6]	15–22 Apr 2025	1,469	–	26	24	16	12	9	4	3	6	2
Forsa [5]	15–17 Apr 2025	1,502	–	25	26	15	11	9	4	4	6	1
INSA [2]	14–17 Apr 2025	1,205	–	25	24	16	11	10	5	4	5	1
INSA [2]	11–14 Apr 2025	2,002	–	25.5	24.5	16	11	10	4.5	3.5	5	1
Forsa [5]	8–14 Apr 2025	2,502	21	25	24	15	12	10	4	3	7	1
INSA [2]	7–11 Apr 2025	1,202	–	25	24	16	11	10	5	3	6	1
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [3]	8–10 Apr 2025	1,322	9	26	24	15	12	10	3	4	6	2
Allensbach [10]	28 Mar – 9 Apr 2025	1,048	–	27	23.5	16	12	10	4	3	4.5	3.5
INSA [2]	4–7 Apr 2025	2,008	–	24.5	24.5	16	10.5	10.5	4.5	4	5.5	Tie
GMS [11]	2–7 Apr 2025	1,022	–	26	25	15	11	10	4	4	5	1
Forsa [5]	1–7 Apr 2025	2,501	19	25	24	15	12	10	4	3	7	1
Ipsos [7]	4–5 Apr 2025	1,000	–	24	25	15	11	11	5	4	5	1
INSA [2]	31 Mar – 4 Apr 2025	1,206	–	24	24	16	11	11	4	4	6	Tie
Infratest dimap [8]	31 Mar – 2 Apr 2025	1,334	–	26	24	16	11	10	4	4	5	2
INSA [2]	28–31 Mar 2025	2,006	–	26.5	23.5	15.5	12	10.5	4.5	3.5	4	3
Forsa [5]	25–31 Mar 2025	2,508	–	25	24	15	12	10	4	4	6	1
INSA [2]	24–28 Mar 2025	1,204	–	26	23	16	12	10	5	3	5	3
Verian [6]	19–25 Mar 2025	1,381	–	27	22	15	13	10	4	3	6	5
YouGov [4]	21–24 Mar 2025	1,890	–	26	24	15	12	10	5	3	4	2
INSA [2]	21–24 Mar 2025	2,004	–	27	23.5	14.5	12	10.5	4.5	3.5	4.5	3.5
Forsa [5]	18–24 Mar 2025	2,502	–	26	23	15	12	10	4	4	6	3
INSA [2]	17–21 Mar 2025	1,202	–	27	23	15	12	10	5	3	5	4
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [3]	18–20 Mar 2025	1,305	11	27	22	16	12	10	3	4	6	5
INSA [2]	14–17 Mar 2025	2,008	–	29	22	15.5	11	10.5	5	3	4	7
Forsa [5]	11–17 Mar 2025	2,501	–	27	23	14	12	11	3	4	6	4
INSA [2]	10–14 Mar 2025	1,201	–	28	22	16	11	10	5	3	5	6
Allensbach [10]	27 Feb – 11 Mar 2025	1,031	–	29	21	16	11.5	10	4	3	5	8
INSA [2]	7–10 Mar 2025	2,003	–	28.5	22	16.5	10.5	10.5	4.5	3.5	4	6.5
Forsa [5]	4–10 Mar 2025	2,504	–	28	22	15	11	11	3	4	6	6
INSA [2]	3–7 Mar 2025	1,201	–	28	21	16	11	10	5	4	5	7
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen [3]	4–6 Mar 2025	1,249	8	28	21	15	13	10	3	4	6	7
Infratest dimap [8]	4–5 Mar 2025	1,325	–	29	21	16	12	9	5	3	5	8
INSA [2]	28 Feb – 3 Mar 2025	2,002	–	29.5	22	15.5	11	9.5	5	3.5	4	7.5
Forsa [5]	24 Feb – 3 Mar 2025	3,001	16	28	22	15	11	12	3	3	6	6
Ipsos [7]	28 Feb – 1 Mar 2025	1,000	–	29	22	15	12	9	5	4	5	7
INSA [2]	24–28 Feb 2025	1,001	–	30	22	15	11	9	5	4	4	8
2025 federal election	23 Feb 2025	–	17.5	28.5	20.8	16.4	11.6	8.8	5.0 [a]	4.3	4.6	7.7

CDU and CSU

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	CDU	AfD	SPD	Grüne	Linke	CSU	BSW	FDP	Others	Lead
INSA	12–15 Sep 2025	2,004	19.5	25.5	14.5	11.5	11.0	6.0	4.0	3.0	5.0	6.0
INSA	5–8 Sep 2025	2,006	19.5	25.5	14.5	11.0	10.0	6.0	4.5	3.5	5.5	6.0
INSA	29 Aug – 1 Sep 2025	2,004	19.0	25.0	14.5	11.0	11.0	6.5	4.0	3.5	5.5	6.0
INSA	22–25 Aug 2025	2,002	18.5	25.0	15.0	10.5	11.0	6.5	4.5	3.5	5.5	6.5
INSA	15–18 Aug 2025	2,010	21.5	25.0	14.5	11.0	10.0	4.5	5.0	4.0	4.5	3.5
INSA	8–11 Aug 2025	2,008	21.0	25.0	14.5	10.5	9.5	6.0	4.5	3.5	5.5	4.0
INSA	1–4 Aug 2025	2,004	22.0	25.0	14.5	10.5	9.5	5.5	4.5	3.0	5.5	3.0
INSA	25–28 Jul 2025	2,006	21.5	24.0	14.5	10.5	10.0	6.0	4.5	3.5	5.5	2.5
INSA	18–21 Jul 2025	2,005	21.0	24.0	14.0	10.5	10.5	6.5	4.5	3.5	5.5	3.0
INSA	11–14 Jul 2025	2,004	21.0	23.5	15.0	11.0	10.5	6.5	4.5	3.5	4.5	2.5
INSA	4–7 Jul 2025	2,007	22.0	23.5	14.5	11.0	11.0	6.0	4.5	3.5	4.0	1.5
INSA	27–30 Jun 2025	2,008	22.5	23.5	15.5	11.5	9.5	5.5	5.0	3.5	3.5	1.0
INSA	20–23 Jun 2025	2,002	21.5	23.0	16.0	11.5	10.0	6.0	4.5	4.0	3.5	1.5
INSA	13–16 Jun 2025	2,006	21.5	23.0	16.0	11.5	10.5	5.5	4.0	4.0	4.0	1.5
INSA	6–10 Jun 2025	2,004	20.5	22.5	16.0	11.0	10.0	7.0	4.5	4.0	4.5	2.0
INSA	30 May – 2 Jun 2025	2,002	21.0	24.5	16.0	10.5	10.5	5.5	4.0	4.0	4.0	3.5
INSA	23–26 May 2025	2,006	21.0	24.5	16.0	11.0	10.0	5.0	4.5	3.5	4.5	3.5
INSA	16–19 May 2025	2,008	20.5	24.5	15.5	11.0	10.0	5.5	4.0	3.5	5.5	4.0
INSA	9–12 May 2025	2,004	20.5	24.5	16.0	11.0	10.0	4.5	4.0	3.5	6.0	4.0
INSA	2–5 May 2025	2,003	19.0	24.5	16.0	11.0	10.0	5.5	4.0	4.0	6.0	5.5
INSA	25–28 Apr 2025	2,006	19.5	25.0	15.5	11.0	10.0	5.5	4.0	3.0	6.5	5.5
INSA	17–22 Apr 2025	2,010	19.5	25.0	15.0	11.0	10.0	5.5	5.0	3.5	5.5	5.5
INSA	11–14 Apr 2025	2,002	20.0	24.5	16.0	11.0	10.0	5.5	4.5	3.5	5.0	4.5
INSA	4–7 Apr 2025	2,008	18.5	24.5	16.0	10.5	10.5	6.0	4.5	4.0	5.5	6.0
INSA	28–31 Mar 2025	2,006	21.0	23.5	15.5	12.0	10.5	5.5	4.5	3.5	4.0	2.5
INSA	21–24 Mar 2025	2,004	21.0	23.5	14.5	12.0	10.5	6.0	4.5	3.5	4.5	2.5
INSA	14–17 Mar 2025	2,008	23.5	22.0	15.5	11.0	10.5	5.5	5.0	3.0	4.0	1.5
INSA	7–10 Mar 2025	2,003	22.5	22.0	16.5	10.5	10.5	6.0	4.5	3.5	4.0	0.5
INSA	28 Feb – 3 Mar 2025	2,002	23.0	22.0	15.5	11.0	9.5	6.5	5.0	3.5	4.0	1.0
2025 federal election	23 Feb 2025	–	22.6	20.8	16.4	11.6	8.8	6.0	5.0 [a]	4.3	4.6	1.8

Scenario polls

National-wide CSU

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	CDU	AfD	SPD	Grüne	Linke	CSU	BSW	FDP	Others	Lead
INSA	29 Aug – 1 Sep 2025	2,004	20	24	12.5	11	10	12.5	3.5	2.5	4	4
2025 federal election	23 Feb 2025	–	22.6	20.8	16.4	11.6	8.8	6.0	4.98	4.3	4.6	1.8

Voting intention after hypothetical AfD ban

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Union	AfD	SPD	Grüne	Linke	BSW	FDP	Others	Lead
INSA	5–9 May 2025	1,203	30	–	19	13	12	11	6	9	11
2025 federal election	23 Feb 2025	–	28.5	20.8	16.4	11.6	8.8	4.98	4.3	4.6	7.7

By state

Bavaria

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	CSU	AfD	Grüne	SPD	Linke	Free Voters	FDP	BSW	Others	Lead
Forsa	1–10 Sep 2025	1,012	33	24	13	9	8	3	3	2	5	9
2025 federal election	23 Feb 2025	–	37.2	19.0	12.0	11.5	5.7	4.3	4.2	3.1	2.9	18.2

North Rhine-Westphalia

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	CDU	SPD	AfD	Grüne	Linke	FDP	BSW	Others	Lead
Forsa	25 Jun – 2 Jul 2025	1,507	30	18	18	13	9	4	3	5	12
2025 federal election	23 Feb 2025	–	30.1	20.0	16.8	12.4	8.3	4.4	4.1	3.9	11.1

By Western and Eastern Germany

Western Germany

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Union	AfD	SPD	Grüne	Linke	BSW	FDP	Others	Lead
YouGov	12–15 Sep 2025	1,285 in West Germany	28	24	16	12	8	4	4	4	4
INSA	5–8 Sep 2025	2,006 in all of Germany	27	23	15	12	9	4	4	6	4
YouGov	15–18 Aug 2025	1,418 in West Germany	29	23	15	13	9	4	4	4	6
INSA	8–11 Aug 2025	2,008 in all of Germany	29	22	16	12	8	4	3	6	7
YouGov	11–14 Jul 2025	1,420 in West Germany	29	22	15	12	10	4	3	5	7
INSA	27–30 Jun 2025	2,008 in all of Germany	29	21	17	12	9	4	4	4	8
YouGov	13–16 Jun 2025	1,491 in West Germany	30	21	16	14	7	4	4	5	9
YouGov	9–12 May 2025	1,477 in West Germany	29	22	16	14	8	3	3	5	7
YouGov	25–28 Apr 2025	1,520 in West Germany	28	23	15	12	10	4	4	3	5
INSA	11–14 Apr 2025	2,002 in all of Germany	28	21	17	12	9	4	4	5	7
YouGov	21–24 Mar 2025	1,451 in West Germany	29	21	16	13	9	5	4	5	8
2025 federal election	23 Feb 2025	–	30.7	17.9	17.6	12.7	7.9	4.6	3.9	4.8	12.8

Eastern Germany

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	AfD	Union	Linke	SPD	BSW	Grüne	FDP	Others	Lead
YouGov	12–15 Sep 2025	364 in East Germany	37	17	11	10	8	8	4	5	20
INSA	5–8 Sep 2025	2,006 in all of Germany	36	19	15	13	7	7	2	1	17
YouGov	15–18 Aug 2025	413 in East Germany	36	18	13	9	9	6	3	5	18
INSA	8–11 Aug 2025	2,008 in all of Germany	37	17	15	10	7	4	4	6	20
YouGov	11–14 Jul 2025	400 in East Germany	36	17	13	9	7	7	4	6	19
INSA	27–30 Jun 2025	2,008 in all of Germany	34	23	13	10	9	7	2	2	11
YouGov	13–16 Jun 2025	421 in East Germany	32	22	14	10	7	9	2	5	10
YouGov	9–12 May 2025	450 in East Germany	36	19	12	10	8	7	5	2	17
YouGov	25–28 Apr 2025	467 in East Germany	35	17	12	11	8	8	4	5	18
INSA	11–14 Apr 2025	2,002 in all of Germany	38	18	12	10	8	7	3	4	20
YouGov	21–24 Mar 2025	439 in East Germany	35	18	15	11	7	8	2	3	17
2025 federal election	23 Feb 2025	–	34.6	18.4	12.8	10.9	9.9	6.5	3.1	3.7	16.2

Chancellor polling

Merz vs. Weidel

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Merz Union	Weidel AfD	Neither
INSA	27–30 Jun 2025	2,008	36	27	37
INSA	11–14 Apr 2025	2,002	34	26	40
INSA	28–31 Mar 2025	2,006	35	27	38
INSA	21–24 Mar 2025	2,004	37	28	35

Preferred coalition

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Union AfD [b]		Union SPD Grüne			SPD Grüne Linke			Union SPD Linke			Union
INSA	27–30 Jun 2025	2,008	24		13			13			9			9
INSA	11–14 Apr 2025	2,002	26		19			–			15			9
INSA	4–7 Apr 2025	2,008	27		19			–			14			10

Constituency projections

With the new electoral reform, constituency seats are only awarded if covered by the votes cast for the party in that state. As such, the number of constituency seats won by a party may be lower than that party's number of constituency pluralities. ^[13]

Constituency pluralities

Polling firm	Release date	Union	AfD	SPD	Grüne	Linke
election.de	15 Sep 2025	186	49	43	14	7
INSA	15 Sep 2025	178	61	39	13	8
INSA	8 Sep 2025	172	73	34	12	8
INSA	1 Sep 2025	172	68	39	12	8
INSA	25 Aug 2025	159	73	48	12	7
INSA	18 Aug 2025	177	61	41	12	8
election.de	15 Aug 2025	188	49	41	14	7
INSA	11 Aug 2025	197	55	29	10	8
INSA	4 Aug 2025	194	54	36	10	5
INSA	28 Jul 2025	195	51	38	9	6
INSA	21 Jul 2025	204	53	26	10	6
election.de	15 Jul 2025	197	48	36	11	7
INSA	14 Jul 2025	191	49	40	13	6
INSA	7 Jul 2025	205	50	26	13	5
INSA	30 Jun 2025	190	46	43	14	6
INSA	23 Jun 2025	186	47	47	13	6
INSA	16 Jun 2025	184	48	46	16	5
election.de	15 Jun 2025	189	49	41	13	7
INSA	10 Jun 2025	195	47	44	10	3
INSA	2 Jun 2025	182	52	52	9	4
INSA	26 May 2025	174	54	52	13	6
INSA	19 May 2025	180	55	44	15	5
election.de	15 May 2025	181	51	46	13	8
INSA	12 May 2025	160	61	60	14	4
INSA	5 May 2025	157	66	57	14	5
INSA	28 Apr 2025	158	69	51	16	5
INSA	22 Apr 2025	174	58	48	14	5
election.de	15 Apr 2025	181	50	47	14	7
INSA	14 Apr 2025	165	50	59	20	5
INSA	7 Apr 2025	160	65	56	13	5
INSA	31 Mar 2025	178	48	51	16	6
INSA	24 Mar 2025	192	52	35	12	8
INSA	17 Mar 2025	199	44	40	7	9
election.de	15 Mar 2025	192	45	43	11	8
INSA	10 Mar 2025	189	41	55	8	6
2025 federal election	23 Feb 2025	190	46	45	12	6

By probability

Polling firm	Release date	Union			AfD			SPD			Grüne			Linke
		Safe	Likely	Lean	Safe	Likely	Lean	Safe	Likely	Lean	Safe	Likely	Lean	Safe	Likely	Lean
election.de	15 Sep 2025	51	92	43	34	9	6	3	13	27	0	3	11	2	4	1
election.de	15 Aug 2025	58	85	45	33	10	6	1	14	26	0	3	11	2	3	2
election.de	15 Jul 2025	80	78	39	31	11	6	1	13	22	0	3	8	2	3	2
election.de	15 Jun 2025	57	87	45	33	10	6	2	14	25	0	3	10	2	4	1
election.de	15 May 2025	38	95	48	35	9	7	2	13	31	0	3	10	2	4	2
election.de	15 Apr 2025	41	93	47	35	9	6	3	13	31	0	3	11	2	4	1
election.de	15 Mar 2025	82	75	35	31	11	3	3	12	28	0	2	9	2	4	2
2025 federal election	23 Feb 2025	190			46			45			12			6

Second place

Polling firm	Release date	SPD	Union	AfD	Grüne	Linke
election.de	15 Sep 2025	79	78	117	21	4
election.de	15 Aug 2025	80	80	114	21	4
election.de	15 Jul 2025	89	78	104	24	4
election.de	15 Jun 2025	81	79	113	22	4
election.de	15 May 2025	72	81	122	21	3
election.de	15 Apr 2025	75	82	117	21	4
election.de	15 Mar 2025	94	82	96	24	3
2025 federal election	23 Feb 2025	111	82	79	22	5

Notes

1. Rounded from 4.98%, which is below the threshold for parliamentary representation in Germany.
2. Coalition would break the cordon sanitaire /firewall against the far-right in Germany with the AfD.

References

1. "Truth in Polling". europeelects.eu. Europe Elects. Retrieved 21 January 2025.
2. "Sonntagsfrage – INSA (Wahlumfragen zur Bundestagswahl)". Wahlrecht.de.
3. "Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (Wahlumfragen zur Bundestagswahl)". Wahlrecht.de (in German).
4. "Sonntagsfrage – YouGov (Wahlumfragen zur Bundestagswahl)". Wahlrecht.de (in German). Retrieved 26 March 2025.
5. "Sonntagsfrage – Forsa (Wahlumfragen zur Bundestagswahl)". Wahlrecht.de (in German).
6. "Verian (Kantar Public, Emnid)". Wahlrecht.de (in German). Retrieved 28 March 2025.
7. "Sonntagsfrage – Ipsos (Wahlumfragen zur Bundestagswahl)". Wahlrecht.de (in German).
8. "Sonntagsfrage – Infratest dimap (Wahlumfragen zur Bundestagswahl)". Wahlrecht.de (in German).
9. "Sonntagsfrage Bundestagswahl (weitere Institute)". Wahlrecht.de (in German).
10. "Allensbach (Institut für Demoskopie)". Wahlrecht.de (in German). Retrieved 27 March 2025.
11. "GMS (Gesellschaft für Markt- und Sozialforschung)". Wahlrecht.de (in German). Retrieved 7 April 2025.
12. "Trends im Bund". wahlkreisprognose.de.
13. Kornmeier, Claudia. "Was das neue Wahlrecht vorsieht". tagesschau.de (in German). Retrieved 28 September 2024.

External links

• Wahlrecht.de (in German)
• pollytix-Wahltrend (in German)
• DAWUM Wahltrend (in German)
• X: @Wahlen_DE (in German)