2026 United States Senate election in Iowa

For related races, see 2026 United States Senate elections.

Not to be confused with 2026 Iowa Senate election.

2026 United States Senate election in Iowa

←  2020 November 3, 2026 2032 →

Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. senator Joni Ernst Republican

The 2026 United States Senate election in Iowa will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Iowa. Two-term Republican Joni Ernst, who was re-elected in 2020 with 51.8% of the vote, declined to seek reelection to a third term. ^[1]

Background

Since voting for President Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, Iowa has trended increasingly Republican and is now considered a moderately to strongly red state at the federal and state level. Republican nominee Donald Trump won Iowa in 2020 by 8 percentage points, and in 2024 grew his margin to 13 percentage points. Republicans control every statewide executive office (except the state auditor's office), majorities in both chambers of the state legislature, and the entire congressional delegation. ^[2]

Senator Joni Ernst was first elected in the red wave of 2014, defeating U.S. Representative Bruce Braley by about 8 percentage points. She was re-elected in 2020 defeating Theresa Greenfield by 6.5 percentage points in what was expected to be a dead heat. ^{[3] [4]}

In May 2025, Ernst sparked controversy after replying to a constituent upset by thousands of preventable deaths resulting from Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act by responding, "Well, we all are going to die" during a town hall in north-central Iowa. ^[5]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Jim Carlin, former state senator from the 3rd district (2017–2023) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022 ^[6]
• Ashley Hinson, U.S. Representative from Iowa's 2nd congressional district (2021–present) ^[7]
• Joshua Smith, former vice chair of the Libertarian National Committee (2022–2023) and Libertarian candidate for president in 2024 ^[8]

Filed paperwork

• John Berman ^[9]

Potential

• Brenna Bird, Attorney General of Iowa (2023–present) ^[10]
• Matthew Whitaker, U.S. Ambassador to NATO (2025–present), former acting United States Attorney General (2018–2019), nominee for state treasurer in 2002, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014 ^[11]

Declined

• Joni Ernst, incumbent U.S. Senator (2015–present) ^[12]
• Kari Lake, senior advisor to the U.S. Agency for Global Media (2025–present), nominee for Governor of Arizona in 2022, and nominee for U.S. Senate in Arizona in 2024 ^[13]
• Zach Nunn, U.S. Representative from Iowa's 3rd congressional district (2023–present) (running for re-election, ^[10] endorsed Hinson) ^[14]

Endorsements

Jim Carlin

State senators

• Sandy Salmon, 29th district (2023–present) ^[15]

Ashley Hinson

Executive branch officials

• Donald Trump, 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021; 2025–present) ^[16]

U.S. senators

• Jim Banks, Indiana (2025–present) ^[17]
• Katie Britt, Alabama (2023–present) ^[17]
• Tom Cotton, Arkansas (2013–present) ^[18]
• Markwayne Mullin, Oklahoma (2023–present) ^[17]
• Tim Scott, South Carolina (2013–present) ^[18]
• John Thune, Senate Majority Leader (2025–present) from South Dakota (2005–present) ^[18]

U.S. representatives

• Tom Emmer, House Majority Whip (2023–present) from MN-6 (2015–present) ^[17]
• Zach Nunn, IA-3 (2023–present) ^[14]
• Steve Scalise, House Majority Leader from LA-1 (2008–present) ^[17]
• Elise Stefanik, NY-21 (2015–present) ^[17]

State representatives

• Bobby Kaufmann, Majority Leader of the Iowa House of Representatives (2025–present) from the 82nd district (2013–present) ^[17]

Joni Ernst (declined)

Organizations

• AIPAC ^[19]
• Maggie's List ^[20]

Fundraising

Italics indicate a declined candidate.

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2025
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Jim Carlin (R)	$125,401	$124,689	$711
Joni Ernst (R)	$6,747,240	$3,871,158	$3,404,497
Source: Federal Election Commission [21]

Polling

Hypothetical polling

Joni Ernst vs. "Someone Else"

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Joni Ernst	Someone Else	Undecided
Victory Insights (R) [22]	December 6–7, 2024	600 (LV)	–	48%	27%	26%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Bob Krause, former state representative from the 7th district (1973–1978) and perennial candidate ^[23]
• Jackie Norris, chair of the Des Moines school board and former Chief of Staff to the First Lady of the United States (2009–2011) ^[24]
• Nathan Sage, market director for KNIA ^[25]
• Josh Turek, state representative from the 20th district (2023–present) ^[26]
• Zach Wahls, state senator from the 43rd district (2019–present) and former Senate Minority Leader (2020–2023) ^[27]

Withdrawn

• J. D. Scholten, state representative from the 1st district (2023–present) and nominee for Iowa's 4th congressional district in 2018 and 2020 (endorsed Turek) ^[28]

Endorsements

Josh Turek

State legislators

• J. D. Scholten, state representative from the 1st district (2023–present) ^[28]

Zach Wahls

U.S. representatives

• Dave Loebsack, IA-2 (2007–2021) ^[29]

Statewide officials

• Howard Dean, former Governor of Vermont (1991–2003) and chair of the DNC (2005–2009) ^[29]
• Patty Judge, former Lieutenant Governor of Iowa (2007–2011) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2016 ^[29]

State legislators

• Liz Bennett, state senator from the 39th district (2023–present) ^[29]
• Ken Croken, state representative from the 97th district (2023–present) ^[29]
• Daniel Gosa, state representative from the 81st district (2025–present) ^[29]
• Liz Mathis, state senator from the 34th district (2011–present) ^[29]

Notable individuals

• Tim Dwight, former NFL and University of Iowa football player ^[29]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2025
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Nathan Sage (D)	$709,398	$375,015	$334,383
Zach Wahls (D)	$656,638	$30,288	$626,350
Source: Federal Election Commission [21]

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

• Thomas Laehn, Greene County Attorney ^[30]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2025
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Thomas Laehn (L)	$27,581	$10,188	$17,393
Source: Federal Election Commission [21]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Inside Elections [31]	Likely R	August 12, 2025
The Cook Political Report [32]	Likely R	August 18, 2025
Sabato's Crystal Ball [33]	Likely R	August 12, 2025
Race To The WH [34]	Lean R	September 4, 2025

Polling

Hypothetical polling

Joni Ernst vs. Jackie Norris

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Joni Ernst (R)	Jackie Norris (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [35] [A]	August 18–19, 2025	572 (V)	± 4.1%	45%	42%	13%

Joni Ernst vs. Nathan Sage

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Joni Ernst (R)	Nathan Sage (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [35] [A]	August 18–19, 2025	572 (V)	± 4.1%	45%	41%	14%

Joni Ernst vs. Josh Turek

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Joni Ernst (R)	Josh Turek (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [35] [A]	August 18–19, 2025	572 (V)	± 4.1%	45%	41%	14%

Joni Ernst vs. Zach Wahls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Joni Ernst (R)	Zach Wahls (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [35] [A]	August 18–19, 2025	572 (V)	± 4.1%	43%	42%	15%

Joni Ernst vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Joni Ernst (R)	Generic Democrat	Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [36] [37] [B]	June 2–3, 2025	568 (V)	± 4.1%	45%	43%	12%

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by Wahls's campaign
2. Poll sponsored by Senate Majority PAC, which supports Democratic candidates

References

1. Jacobs, Jennifer (September 2, 2025). "Joni Ernst announces retirement from Senate in 2026, pledges ongoing community involvement". CBS KGAN. Retrieved September 2, 2025.
2. Ta, Linh (November 6, 2024). "Iowa remains solidly Republican". Axios . Retrieved December 13, 2024.
3. Barrett, Ted (November 5, 2014). "Joni Ernst wins Iowa Senate race". CNN . Retrieved December 13, 2024.
4. Pfannenstiel, Brianne (November 2, 2020). "'Six more years!': Republican U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst wins reelection, beating Democrat Theresa Greenfield". The Des Moines Register . Retrieved December 13, 2024.
5. "MSN". www.msn.com. Retrieved June 3, 2025.
6. Hayworth, Bret (April 16, 2025). "Iowa politics: Republican Jim Carlin announces U.S. Senate campaign". KCCI . Retrieved September 3, 2025.
7. Richards, Zoë (September 2, 2025). "GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson announces Senate bid for open Iowa seat". NBC News . Retrieved September 2, 2025.
8. Belin, Laura (December 9, 2024). "Joshua Smith to challenge Joni Ernst in GOP primary". Bleeding Heartland. Retrieved December 10, 2024.
9. "BERMAN, JOHN - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. January 1, 2019. Retrieved May 16, 2025.
10. Nir, David; Singer, Jeff (September 3, 2025). "Morning Digest: How Democrats can fight back against the Missouri GOP's new gerrymander". The Downballot. Retrieved September 3, 2025.
11. Bowman, Bridget; Kamisar, Ben; Allen, Jonathan; Welker, Kristin (August 29, 2025). "Republican Sen. Joni Ernst won't seek re-election in Iowa in 2026". NBC News . Retrieved August 29, 2025.
12. Jacobs, Jennifer (September 2, 2025). "Joni Ernst announces retirement from Senate in 2026, pledges ongoing community involvement". KGAN . Retrieved September 2, 2025.
13. Pfannenstiel, Sabine Martin and Brianne (January 27, 2025). "Donald Trump supporter Kari Lake postpones Iowa homecoming for MAGA event". The Des Moines Register . Retrieved February 1, 2025. Speculation swirled among MAGA-minded Republicans in Iowa who suggested on social media that Lake would be a strong potential primary challenger to Ernst...Lake's spokesperson Alex Nicoll told The Arizona Republic after news of the event that she's not planning to be a political candidate.
14. Pfannenstiel, Brianne (September 2, 2025). "Iowa Republican Ashley Hinson announces 2026 US Senate campaign". The Des Moines Register . Retrieved September 4, 2025.
15. "Jim Carlin Responds to Sen. Joni Ernst's Decision Not to Seek Re-election" (Press release). September 2, 2025. Retrieved September 4, 2025– via The Iowa Standard.
16. Fields, Ashleigh (September 5, 2025). "Trump endorses Ashley Hinson in Iowa Senate race". The Hill . Retrieved September 6, 2025.
17. Steinhauser, Paul (September 2, 2025). "Republican rising star Ashley Hinson announces Senate bid in race to succeed Iowa's Ernst". Fox News . Retrieved September 3, 2025.
18. Markus, Nicole (September 5, 2025). "Republicans move quickly to support Ashley Hinson's Senate bid". Politico . Retrieved September 5, 2025.
19. "- AIPAC Political Portal". candidates.aipacpac.org. Retrieved April 28, 2025.
20. "Maggie's List Announces First Round of 2026 Senate Endorsements". maggieslist.org. Maggie's List. Retrieved March 27, 2025.
21. "2026 Election United States Senate - Iowa". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission . Retrieved April 23, 2025.
22. "NEW POLL: Less Than Half of Iowa Republicans Support Joni Ernst for US Senate in 2026" (PDF). Victory Insights. December 9, 2024. Retrieved April 29, 2025.
23. "Bob Krause announces candidacy for U.S. Senate, endorses Bohannan in House race". KGAN. September 2, 2025. Retrieved September 2, 2025.
24. Lesniewski, Niels (August 5, 2025). "Des Moines school board chair Norris enters Iowa Senate race". Roll Call . Retrieved August 5, 2025.
25. Smith, Allan (April 16, 2025). "Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst gets her first Democratic challenger for 2026". NBC News . Retrieved April 16, 2025.
26. Opsahl, Robin (August 12, 2025). "Iowa Rep. Josh Turek, two-time Paralympian, launches campaign for U.S. Senate". KCCI . Retrieved August 15, 2025.
27. Koons, Cami (June 11, 2025). "Democrat Zach Wahls announces bid for U.S. Senate". Iowa Capital Dispatch . Retrieved June 11, 2025.
28. Gruber-Miller, Stephen (August 18, 2025). "Democrat J.D. Scholten drops out of Iowa's 2026 US Senate race and endorses Josh Turek". The Des Moines Register . Archived from the original on August 18, 2025. Retrieved August 18, 2025.
29. "Campaign Almanac: Iowa Democrat Wahls announces slate of endorsements for Senate campaign". The Gazette . July 23, 2025. Retrieved August 29, 2025.
30. Foix, Chase (April 21, 2025). "US Senate hopeful speaks to Rotary Club of Sioux City". KCAU-TV . Retrieved August 7, 2025.
31. "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 14, 2025.
32. "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
33. "2026 Senate ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
34. "2026 Senate Forecast". Race to the WH. Retrieved March 19, 2025.
35. Plascencia, Cesar (August 22, 2025). "Democrat Zach Wahls Performs Best Against Ernst in Potential Senate Matchups". Public Policy Polling . Retrieved August 25, 2025.
36. "Joni Ernst Unpopular, May Face Tough Reelection". Public Policy Polling . June 4, 2025. Retrieved June 4, 2025.
37. "Iowa Survey Results" (PDF). Public Policy Polling . June 4, 2025. Retrieved June 4, 2025.

External links

Official campaign websites

• Jim Carlin (R) for Senate
• Ashley Hinson (R) for Senate
• Joshua Smith (R) for Senate
• Jackie Norris (D) for Senate
• Nathan Sage (D) for Senate
• Josh Turek (D) for Senate
• Zach Wahls (D) for Senate
• Thomas Laehn (L) for Senate