2026 United States Senate election in Iowa

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2026 United States Senate election in Iowa
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Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

Joni Ernst
Republican



The 2026 United States Senate election in Iowa will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Iowa. Primary elections will be held on June 2, 2026. Two-term Republican Joni Ernst, who was re-elected in 2020 with 51.8% of the vote, declined to seek reelection to a third term. [1]

Contents

Background

Since voting for President Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, Iowa has trended increasingly Republican and is now considered a moderately to strongly red state at the federal and state level. Republican nominee Donald Trump won Iowa in 2020 by 8 percentage points, and in 2024 grew his margin to 13 percentage points. Republicans control every statewide executive office (except the state auditor's office), majorities in both chambers of the state legislature, and the entire congressional delegation. [2]

Senator Joni Ernst was first elected in the red wave of 2014, defeating U.S. Representative Bruce Braley by about 8 percentage points. She was re-elected in 2020 defeating Theresa Greenfield by 6.5 percentage points in what was expected to be a dead heat. [3] [4]

In May 2025, Ernst sparked controversy after replying to a constituent upset by thousands of preventable deaths resulting from Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act by responding, "Well, we all are going to die" during a town hall in north-central Iowa. [5]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Filed paperwork

  • John Berman [9]

Potential

Declined

Endorsements

Jim Carlin
State senators
State representatives
Ashley Hinson
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State representatives
Joni Ernst (declined)

Organizations

Fundraising

Italics indicate a declined candidate.

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2025
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Jim Carlin (R)$125,401$124,689$711
Joni Ernst (R)$6,747,240$3,871,158$3,404,497
Source: Federal Election Commission [23]

Polling

Hypothetical polling

Joni Ernst vs. "Someone Else"

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Joni
Ernst		Someone
Else		Undecided
Victory Insights (R) [24] December 6–7, 2024600 (LV)–48%27%26%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Endorsements

Jackie Norris
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Josh Turek
Statewide officials
State legislators
Zach Wahls
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Notable individuals
Labor unions

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2025
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Nathan Sage (D)$709,398$375,015$334,383
Zach Wahls (D)$656,638$30,288$626,350
Source: Federal Election Commission [23]

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2025
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Thomas Laehn (L)$27,581$10,188$17,393
Source: Federal Election Commission [23]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Inside Elections [36] Likely RAugust 28, 2025
The Cook Political Report [37] Likely RAugust 18, 2025
Sabato's Crystal Ball [38] Likely RAugust 12, 2025
Race To The WH [39] Lean RSeptember 4, 2025

Polling

Hypothetical polling

Joni Ernst vs. Jackie Norris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Joni
Ernst (R)		Jackie
Norris (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [40] [A] August 18–19, 2025572 (V)± 4.1%45%42%13%

Joni Ernst vs. Nathan Sage

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Joni
Ernst (R)		Nathan
Sage (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [40] [A] August 18–19, 2025572 (V)± 4.1%45%41%14%

Joni Ernst vs. Josh Turek

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Joni
Ernst (R)		Josh
Turek (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [40] [A] August 18–19, 2025572 (V)± 4.1%45%41%14%

Joni Ernst vs. Zach Wahls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Joni
Ernst (R)		Zach
Wahls (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [40] [A] August 18–19, 2025572 (V)± 4.1%43%42%15%

Joni Ernst vs. Generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Joni
Ernst (R)		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [41] [42] [B] June 2–3, 2025568 (V)± 4.1%45%43%12%

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by Wahls's campaign
  2. ↑ Poll sponsored by Senate Majority PAC, which supports Democratic candidates

References

  1. 1 2 Jacobs, Jennifer (September 2, 2025). "Joni Ernst announces retirement from Senate in 2026, pledges ongoing community involvement". KGAN . Retrieved September 2, 2025.
  2. ↑ Ta, Linh (November 6, 2024). "Iowa remains solidly Republican". Axios . Retrieved December 13, 2024.
  3. ↑ Barrett, Ted (November 5, 2014). "Joni Ernst wins Iowa Senate race". CNN . Retrieved December 13, 2024.
  4. ↑ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (November 2, 2020). "'Six more years!': Republican U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst wins reelection, beating Democrat Theresa Greenfield". The Des Moines Register . Retrieved December 13, 2024.
  5. ↑ "MSN". www.msn.com. Retrieved June 3, 2025.
  6. ↑ Hayworth, Bret (April 16, 2025). "Iowa politics: Republican Jim Carlin announces U.S. Senate campaign". KCCI . Retrieved September 3, 2025.
  7. ↑ Richards, Zoë (September 2, 2025). "GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson announces Senate bid for open Iowa seat". NBC News . Retrieved September 2, 2025.
  8. ↑ Belin, Laura (December 9, 2024). "Joshua Smith to challenge Joni Ernst in GOP primary". Bleeding Heartland. Retrieved December 10, 2024.
  9. ↑ "BERMAN, JOHN - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. January 1, 2019. Retrieved May 16, 2025.
  10. ↑ Bowman, Bridget; Kamisar, Ben; Allen, Jonathan; Welker, Kristin (August 29, 2025). "Republican Sen. Joni Ernst won't seek re-election in Iowa in 2026". NBC News . Retrieved August 29, 2025.
  11. ↑ Nir, David; Singer, Jeff (September 8, 2025). "Morning Digest: Kansas Republicans want to gerrymander. They have a few problems". The Downballot. Retrieved September 8, 2025.
  12. ↑ Pfannenstiel, Sabine Martin and Brianne (January 27, 2025). "Donald Trump supporter Kari Lake postpones Iowa homecoming for MAGA event". The Des Moines Register . Retrieved February 1, 2025. Speculation swirled among MAGA-minded Republicans in Iowa who suggested on social media that Lake would be a strong potential primary challenger to Ernst...Lake's spokesperson Alex Nicoll told The Arizona Republic after news of the event that she's not planning to be a political candidate.
  13. ↑ Nir, David; Singer, Jeff (September 3, 2025). "Morning Digest: How Democrats can fight back against the Missouri GOP's new gerrymander". The Downballot. Retrieved September 3, 2025.
  14. 1 2 Pfannenstiel, Brianne (September 2, 2025). "Iowa Republican Ashley Hinson announces 2026 US Senate campaign". The Des Moines Register . Retrieved September 4, 2025.
  15. 1 2 3 4 "Former AG Tom Miller endorses Josh Turek in Iowa's Democratic Senate primary". The Waterloo-Cedar Falls Courier . September 9, 2025. Archived from the original on September 9, 2025. Retrieved September 9, 2025.
  16. ↑ Belin, Laura (September 7, 2025). "Ashley Hinson's Senate rollout: Short-term success, long-term risks". Bleeding Heartland. Retrieved September 7, 2025.
  17. ↑ Fields, Ashleigh (September 5, 2025). "Trump endorses Ashley Hinson in Iowa Senate race". The Hill . Retrieved September 6, 2025.
  18. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Steinhauser, Paul (September 2, 2025). "Republican rising star Ashley Hinson announces Senate bid in race to succeed Iowa's Ernst". Fox News . Retrieved September 3, 2025.
  19. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Markus, Nicole (September 5, 2025). "Republicans move quickly to support Ashley Hinson's Senate bid". Politico . Retrieved September 5, 2025.
  20. ↑
  21. ↑ "- AIPAC Political Portal". candidates.aipacpac.org. Retrieved April 28, 2025.
  22. ↑ "Maggie's List Announces First Round of 2026 Senate Endorsements". maggieslist.org. Maggie's List. Retrieved March 27, 2025.
  23. 1 2 3 "2026 Election United States Senate - Iowa". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission . Retrieved April 23, 2025.
  24. ↑ "NEW POLL: Less Than Half of Iowa Republicans Support Joni Ernst for US Senate in 2026" (PDF). Victory Insights. December 9, 2024. Retrieved April 29, 2025.
  25. ↑ "Bob Krause announces candidacy for U.S. Senate, endorses Bohannan in House race". KGAN. September 2, 2025. Retrieved September 2, 2025.
  26. ↑ Lesniewski, Niels (August 5, 2025). "Des Moines school board chair Norris enters Iowa Senate race". Roll Call . Retrieved August 5, 2025.
  27. ↑ Smith, Allan (April 16, 2025). "Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst gets her first Democratic challenger for 2026". NBC News . Retrieved April 16, 2025.
  28. ↑ Opsahl, Robin (August 12, 2025). "Iowa Rep. Josh Turek, two-time Paralympian, launches campaign for U.S. Senate". KCCI . Retrieved August 15, 2025.
  29. ↑ Koons, Cami (June 11, 2025). "Democrat Zach Wahls announces bid for U.S. Senate". Iowa Capital Dispatch . Retrieved June 11, 2025.
  30. 1 2 Gruber-Miller, Stephen (August 18, 2025). "Democrat J.D. Scholten drops out of Iowa's 2026 US Senate race and endorses Josh Turek". The Des Moines Register . Archived from the original on August 18, 2025. Retrieved August 18, 2025.
  31. 1 2 3 4 5 Gazette-Lee Des Moines Bureau (September 15, 2025). "Campaign Almanac: Elections forecaster shifts Iowa U.S. House race toward Democrats as race takes shape". The Gazette . Retrieved September 18, 2025.
  32. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Price, Dave (September 3, 2025). "Challengers tout endorsements amid major Iowa race shakeup". KWQC . Retrieved September 10, 2025.
  33. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 "Campaign Almanac: Iowa Democrat Wahls announces slate of endorsements for Senate campaign". The Gazette . July 23, 2025. Retrieved August 29, 2025.
  34. ↑ Woolard, Megan (August 18, 2025). "Wahls makes labor core tenet of U.S. Senate campaign". The Gazette . Retrieved September 10, 2025.
  35. ↑ Foix, Chase (April 21, 2025). "US Senate hopeful speaks to Rotary Club of Sioux City". KCAU-TV . Retrieved August 7, 2025.
  36. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 14, 2025.
  37. ↑ "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
  38. ↑ "2026 Senate ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
  39. ↑ "2026 Senate Forecast". Race to the WH. Retrieved March 19, 2025.
  40. 1 2 3 4 Plascencia, Cesar (August 22, 2025). "Democrat Zach Wahls Performs Best Against Ernst in Potential Senate Matchups". Public Policy Polling . Retrieved August 25, 2025.
  41. ↑ "Joni Ernst Unpopular, May Face Tough Reelection". Public Policy Polling . June 4, 2025. Retrieved June 4, 2025.
  42. ↑ "Iowa Survey Results" (PDF). Public Policy Polling . June 4, 2025. Retrieved June 4, 2025.
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