2026 United States Senate election in Iowa

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2026 United States Senate election in Iowa
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Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

Joni Ernst
Republican



The 2026 United States Senate election in Iowa will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Iowa. Two-term Republican Joni Ernst was re-elected in 2020 with 51.8% of the vote and is running for re-election to a third full term.

Contents

Background

After voting for President Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, Iowa has trended increasingly Republican in subsequent years and is now considered a moderately to strongly red state at the federal and state level. Republican nominee Donald Trump won Iowa in 2020 by 8 percentage points, and in 2024 grew his margin to 13 percentage points. Republicans control every statewide executive office (except the state auditor's office), supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature, and the entire congressional delegation. [1]

Senator Joni Ernst was first elected in the red wave of 2014, defeating former U.S. Representative Bruce Braley by about 8 percentage points. She was re-elected in 2020 defeating Theresa Greenfield by 6.5 percentage points in what was expected to be a dead heat. [2] [3]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Publicly expressed interest

Potential

Declined

Polling

Hypothetical polling

Joni Ernst vs. Someone Else

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Joni
Ernst		Someone
Else		Undecided
Victory Insights [8] December 6–7, 2024600 (LV)N/A48%27%26%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Formed exploratory committee

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Inside Elections [10] Solid RJanuary 17, 2025
The Cook Political Report [11] Solid RFebruary 11, 2025
Sabato's Crystal Ball [12] Safe RFebruary 13, 2025

Notes

  1. ↑ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

References

  1. ↑ Ta, Linh (November 6, 2024). "Iowa remains solidly Republican". Axios . Retrieved December 13, 2024.
  2. ↑ Barrett, Ted (November 5, 2014). "Joni Ernst wins Iowa Senate race". CNN . Retrieved December 13, 2024.
  3. ↑ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (November 2, 2020). "'Six more years!': Republican U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst wins reelection, beating Democrat Theresa Greenfield". The Des Moines Register . Retrieved December 13, 2024.
  4. ↑ Burns, Douglas (May 30, 2024). "Ernst seeking third term in U.S. Senate, but open to role in a Trump cabinet". Iowa Capital Dispatch . Retrieved December 2, 2024.
  5. ↑ Belin, Laura (December 9, 2024). "Joshua Smith to challenge Joni Ernst in GOP primary". Bleeding Heartland. Retrieved December 10, 2024.
  6. 1 2 Mutnick, Ally (December 11, 2024). "For Trump's allies, RINO-hunting season is in full swing". Politico . Retrieved December 11, 2024.
  7. ↑ Pfannenstiel, Sabine Martin and Brianne (January 27, 2025). "Donald Trump supporter Kari Lake postpones Iowa homecoming for MAGA event". The Des Moines Register . Retrieved February 1, 2025. Speculation swirled among MAGA-minded Republicans in Iowa who suggested on social media that Lake would be a strong potential primary challenger to Ernst...Lake's spokesperson Alex Nicoll told The Arizona Republic after news of the event that she's not planning to be a political candidate.
  8. ↑ "NEW POLL: LESS THAN HALF OF IOWA REPUBLICANS SUPPORT JONI ERNST FOR US SENATE IN 2026" (PDF). Victory Insights. Victory Insights.
  9. ↑ Bellin, Laura (August 5, 2024). "Libertarian Thomas Laehn exploring U.S. Senate bid in Iowa". Bleeding Heartland. Retrieved December 2, 2024.
  10. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 14, 2025.
  11. ↑ "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
  12. ↑ "2026 Senate ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
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