2026 United States Senate election in Louisiana

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2026 United States Senate election in Louisiana
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Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

Bill Cassidy
Republican



The 2026 United States Senate election in Louisiana will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Louisiana. A runoff election will be held on December 12, 2026 if no candidate wins a majority. Party primary elections will be held on April 18, 2026, with a runoff on May 30 if no candidate wins a majority in the primary. Incumbent Republican senator Bill Cassidy, who was re-elected in 2020, is running for re-election to a third term. Cassidy's vote to convict Donald Trump in his second impeachment trial has led to primary challenges against him. [1]

Contents

Following the enactment of House Bill 17 in 2024, this will be the first U.S. Senate election in Louisiana to utilize party primaries instead of a single blanket primary since 2010. [2] [3]

Background

Change of electoral system

In January 2024, governor Jeff Landry signed House Bill 17, sponsored by representative Julie Emerson, which eliminated the top-two Louisiana primary system in favor of partisan primaries in elections for Congress, the Board of Elementary and Secondary Education, the Public Service Commission, and the Supreme Court. Unaffiliated voters may vote in the primaries, but not members of other parties, including the Independent Party of Louisiana. The bill also indicated the use of runoff elections if no candidate receives a majority in their respective primary. The law is to take effect beginning with the 2026 elections, making this election the first in which Louisiana will elect a U.S. senator using this system since 2010; the top-two primary was first implemented in congressional elections in 1978. [2]

Primary challenge to Cassidy

Senator Bill Cassidy, who has held this seat since 2015, has gained significant notoriety within the Republican Party for being a vocal critic of president Donald Trump. He denounced the storming of the U.S. Capitol and accused the participants of sedition, while voting to certify the results of the 2020 presidential election, which Trump and his supporters have attempted to overturn. [4] Cassidy was one of seven Senate Republicans to later vote to convict Trump of incitement of insurrection during his second impeachment trial, for which the Republican Party of Louisiana publicly censured him. [5] Additionally, during Trump's 2024 presidential campaign, Cassidy made numerous public statements denouncing his candidacy and calling for his withdrawal, particularly in reference to Trump's four criminal indictments. [6] [7]

Cassidy's outspoken opposition to President Trump and his policies has led political analysts to believe him vulnerable to a primary challenge from the right wing of the party. Early speculation of potential candidates included Clay Higgins, a Congressman and law enforcement officer who has gained popularity among Republicans for his support of Trump. [3] However, Higgins ultimately chose not to run. [8]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Filed paperwork

  • Randall Arrington, retired naval aviator and university professor [13]
  • Chris Holder [14]
  • Josh Morott [15]
  • Xan John, perennial candidate [16]

Publicly expressed interest

Declined

Endorsements

Bill Cassidy
U.S. senators

State legislators

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations
John Fleming

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Blake Miguez

State legislators

  • Roger Wilder, state representative from the 71st district (2024–present) [28]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2025
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Bill Cassidy (R)$9,287,220$2,185,574$8,739,323
John Fleming (R)$4,416,119$2,273,540$2,142,652
Chris Holder (R)$7,600$3,500$4,100
Blake Miguez (R)$1,821,573$78,986$1,742,587
Sammy Wyatt (R)$132,956$110,739$22,217
Source: Federal Election Commission [29]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Bill
Cassidy		John
Fleming		OtherUndecided
Ragnar Research [30] [A] April 14–16, 2025600 (LV)± 4.0%45%18%3% [b] 34%
JMC Analytics & Polling [31] [B] February 24–26, 2025600 (LV)± 4.0%27%40%–33%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Bill
Cassidy		John
Fleming		Blake
Miguez		Eric
Skrmetta		Undecided
JMC Analytics & Polling [31] [B] February 24–26, 2025600 (LV)± 4.0%27%29%6%2%36%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Bill
Cassidy		Clay
Higgins		John
Fleming		Julia
Letlow		Blake
Miguez		Undecided
Trafalgar Group (R) [32] [C] March 6–10, 20251,068 (LV)± 2.9%24%31%17%20%4%4%
33%––55%–12%
28%39%25%–3%5%
28%42%25%––5%
32%61%–––7%
34%–51%––15%
37%–––42%21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Bill
Cassidy		Clay
Higgins		John
Fleming		Garret
Graves		Eric
Skrmetta		Undecided
Trafalgar Group (R) [32] [C] August 12–14, 20241,062 (LV)± 2.9%27%36%12%23%2%–
36%44%16%–4%–
–45%22%29%4%–
41%––59%––
43%57%––––
–56%–44%––
48%–52%–––

Democratic primary

Candidates

Potential

Third-party candidates

America Party

Filed paperwork

  • Jamie "Kim" LaBranche, write-in candidate [34]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Inside Elections [35] Solid RAugust 12, 2025
The Cook Political Report [36] Solid RAugust 18, 2025
Sabato's Crystal Ball [37] Safe RAugust 12, 2025
Race To The WH [38] Safe RSeptember 4, 2025

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ Randall Arrington with 3%
Partisan clients
  1. ↑ Poll sponsored by Cassidy's campaign
  2. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Fleming's campaign
  3. 1 2 Poll conducted on behalf of Clay Higgins

References

  1. 1 2 Hilburn, Greg (January 30, 2024). "Bill Cassidy discusses reelection plans while blistering Louisiana closed party primary law". The Times . Shreveport . Retrieved March 31, 2024.
  2. 1 2 Muller, Wesley (January 19, 2024). "Gov. Landry, lawmakers disrupt how Louisiana has voted for nearly 50 years". Louisiana Illuminator . Retrieved March 31, 2024.
  3. 1 2 Bridges, Tyler (January 28, 2024). "Bill Cassidy faces uphill battle to win reelection but independents can still vote for him". The Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate . Retrieved March 31, 2024.
  4. ↑ Atoms, Greg (January 8, 2021). "Senator Bill Cassidy Says Pro-Trump Rioters Committed Sedition". KEEL . Retrieved January 10, 2021.
  5. ↑ Mena, Kelly; Merica, Dan (February 13, 2021). "Louisiana Republican Party censures Cassidy following vote to convict Trump". CNN . Retrieved February 14, 2021.
  6. ↑ Concepcion, Summer (August 20, 2023). "GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy says Trump should drop out of the 2024 presidential race". NBC News . Retrieved August 20, 2023.
  7. ↑ Yang, Maya (March 17, 2024). "Republican Bill Cassidy derides Trump and calls 2024 race 'sorry state of affairs'". The Guardian . Retrieved March 31, 2024.
  8. 1 2 Vakil, Caroline (March 20, 2025). "Higgins turns down run for Cassidy's Louisiana Senate seat". The Hill . Retrieved March 20, 2025.
  9. ↑ Purdy, Domenic (December 4, 2024). "Treasurer John Fleming announces bid for Bill Cassidy's Senate seat in 2026". WBRZ-TV . Retrieved December 4, 2024.
  10. ↑ Vedros, Colin (June 17, 2025). "Louisiana lawmaker announces run for U.S. Senate against Sen. Bill Cassidy". WVUE-DT . Retrieved June 17, 2025.
  11. ↑ Purdy, Domenic (July 25, 2025). "Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta says he is running for Senate against incumbent Bill Cassidy". WBRZ-TV . Retrieved July 27, 2025.
  12. ↑ "Sammy Wyatt launches race to unseat Cassidy". KTBS . March 14, 2025. Retrieved May 18, 2025.
  13. ↑ "ARRINGTON, RANDALL STEVEN PHD - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. January 1, 2019. Retrieved May 18, 2025.
  14. ↑ "HOLDER, CHRISTOPHER LEE MR. - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. January 1, 2019. Retrieved May 18, 2025.
  15. ↑ "MOROTT, JOSHUA FEC FORM 2 STATEMENT OF CANDIDACY FILING FEC-1904325".
  16. ↑ "JOHN, XAN MR. - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. January 1, 2019. Retrieved May 18, 2025.
  17. ↑ Hilburn, Greg (August 27, 2025). "Will Louisiana Congresswoman Julia Letlow enter the 2026 U.S. Senate race with Bill Cassidy?". The Times . Retrieved August 28, 2025.
  18. ↑ Bridges, Tyler (April 21, 2025). "Will Julia Letlow challenge Bill Cassidy in Louisiana? Political heavyweights are asking". The Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate . Retrieved April 22, 2025.
  19. ↑ Beaumont, Thomas (May 10, 2025). "Louisiana governor pushes Trump to weigh primary challenger to GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy, AP sources say". Associated Press . Retrieved May 10, 2025.
  20. ↑ Hilburn, Greg (August 28, 2025). "First woman to enter Louisiana Senate race, hires Trump-affiliated pollster to test waters". Shreveport Times. Retrieved September 4, 2025.
  21. 1 2 Mckendry, Nolan (September 2, 2025). "Cassidy touts endorsements, campaign momentum". The Center Square . Retrieved September 8, 2025. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Tim Scott, R-S.C., have since thrown their support behind him...
  22. ↑ "Senator Cassidy earns key conservative endorsement from State Senate Committee Chair Beth Mizell". Livingston Parish News . August 14, 2025. Retrieved September 8, 2025.
  23. ↑ https://www.cenlanow.com/news/state-news/ruston-mayor-endorses-cassidy-for-the-2026-senate-election/
  24. 1 2 Hilburn, Greg (November 21, 2024). "Senator Bill Cassidy flexes 2026 election muscles ahead of potential MAGA challengers". The Times . Retrieved November 21, 2024.
  25. ↑ "- AIPAC Political Portal". candidates.aipacpac.org. Retrieved April 28, 2025.
  26. 1 2 3 Soellner, Mica; Cohen, Max. "Fleming makes his pro-Trump case against Cassidy". Punchbowl News . Retrieved March 7, 2025.
  27. ↑ Vedros, Colin (August 28, 2025). "Elbert Guillory joins John Fleming's Senate run as campaign director". KALB-TV . Retrieved September 4, 2025.
  28. ↑ Hutchinson, Piper (January 25, 2025). "State lawmaker claims Bill Cassidy revoked his Washington Mardi Gras ball tickets over politics". Louisiana Illuminator . Retrieved January 25, 2025.
  29. ↑ "2026 Election United States Senate - Louisiana". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission . Retrieved April 23, 2025.
  30. ↑ Lacen, Marlo (May 2, 2025). "Bill Cassidy leads Louisiana's U.S. Senate race, new poll shows". KTAL-TV . Retrieved May 2, 2025.
  31. 1 2 "Fleming To Cassidy: Hey, Cool Poll. I've Got One, Too!". The Hayride. March 5, 2025. Archived from the original on March 5, 2025. Retrieved March 6, 2025.
  32. 1 2 "LA US Senate Republican Primary Poll, Aug '24 and Mar '25". The Trafalgar Group. March 25, 2025. Retrieved March 28, 2025.
  33. ↑ Goldmacher, Shane (May 6, 2025). "How Democrats Hope to Overcome a Daunting 2026 Senate Map". The New York Times . Retrieved May 6, 2025.
  34. ↑ "LaBranche, Jamie FEC FORM 2 STATEMENT OF CANDIDACY FILING FEC-1904219".
  35. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 14, 2025.
  36. ↑ "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
  37. ↑ "2026 Senate ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
  38. ↑ "2026 Senate Forecast". Race to the WH. Retrieved March 19, 2025.

Official campaign websites

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