2019 Louisiana gubernatorial election

Last updated

2019 Louisiana gubernatorial election
Flag of Louisiana.svg
  2015 October 12, 2019 (first round)
November 16, 2019 (runoff)
2023  
Turnout45.9% Decrease2.svg (first round)
51.0% Increase2.svg (runoff)
  John Bel Edwards, 2021 (crop 2).jpg Eddie Rispone in October, 2019 (cropped).jpg Ralph Abraham official congressional photo (cropped).jpg
Candidate John Bel Edwards Eddie Rispone Ralph Abraham
Party Democratic Republican Republican
First round625,970
46.59%
368,319
27.42%
317,149
23.61%
Runoff774,498
51.33%
734,286
48.67%
Eliminated

LA Governor 2019 Counties.svg
LA Governor 2019.svg
2019 Louisiana gubernatorial runoff election results map by parish.svg
LA Governor Runoff 2019.svg
2019 Louisiana gubernatorial election runoff election results map by congressional district.svg
Edwards:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Rispone:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Abraham:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Landrieu:     50–60%
Tie:     30–40%     40–50%     50%     No votes

Governor before election

John Bel Edwards
Democratic

Elected Governor

John Bel Edwards
Democratic

The 2019 Louisiana gubernatorial election was held to elect the governor of Louisiana. Incumbent Democratic governor John Bel Edwards won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican businessman Eddie Rispone. Edwards became the first Democratic governor of Louisiana to win re-election to a second consecutive term in 44 years since Edwin Edwards (no relation) in 1975. It was the closest Louisiana gubernatorial election since 1979.

Contents

Under Louisiana's jungle primary system, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party, and voters may vote for any candidate regardless of their party affiliation. Because no candidate received an absolute majority of the vote during the primary election on October 12, 2019, a runoff election was held on November 16, 2019, between the top two candidates in the primary, Edwards and Rispone. [1] Louisiana is the only state that has a jungle primary system (California and Washington have a similar top two primary system).

As of 2024, this remains the last time that a Democrat has won a statewide election in Louisiana.

Background

On Edwards’ Inauguration Day in 2016, State House Republicans, in a break with tradition, elected their own speaker, Representative Taylor Barras of New Iberia, over Edwards' choice, Representative Walt Leger of New Orleans. This move was said to be orchestrated by House Republican chairman Lance Harris, who was considered a potential gubernatorial 2019 candidate and was a frequent Edwards critic. [2] Edwards and Republican Legislative leaders repeatedly clashed over budget, tax and spending measures.

Attorney General Jeff Landry was perhaps Edwards' most prominent detractor, filing multiple lawsuits against the governor and frequently criticizing him in the media. The two disagreed the most on social policies, such as Landry's staunch opposition to Edwards' executive order providing protections for LGBT workers of state government and contractors. [3] Landry also assumed the leadership of David Vitter's Political Action Committee, the Louisiana Committee for a Republican Majority, [4] the organisation that was widely considered instrumental to Clay Higgins' upset Congressional victory over Scott Angelle in 2016. [5] Landry has closely aligned with President Donald Trump and attended Trump's 2017 State of the Union speech. [6]

Edwards also become a favorite target of U.S. representative Garret Graves, a Republican from Baton Rouge and former aide to Governor Bobby Jindal. Graves frequently criticized the governor during the state's response to the 2016 August floods in the state. The two notably sparred during a hearing of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, of which Graves is a member. Edwards' aides called the exchange a "political ambush" while Graves accused the governor of lying. [7] Graves was also closely aligned with the Trump Administration and donated $300 to the 2017 Trump Inaugural fund. [8] Graves also accompanied Vice President Mike Pence during a visit to parts of the Baton Rouge area in May 2017. [9]

As the only Democratic governor in the Deep South, Edwards and his agenda also been the target of numerous attacks from numerous groups affiliated with the national Republican Party such as America Rising and Americans for Prosperity. [10] Edwards, declared himself to be unbothered by these groups, and went on to classify them as "a Washington, D.C., political action committee, trying to bring the never-ending campaign cycle to Louisiana." [10]

Aware of their gubernatorial ambitions, Edwards and his aides repeatedly spoofed both U.S. senator John Neely Kennedy and Landry during their traditional response skits at Baton Rouge's Gridiron Show. [11]

According to fundraising reports filed in 2016, Edwards had raised close to $3.3 million for his 2019 re-election effort. [12] [13] By comparison, Landry had $544,000 on hand for a potential future campaign. [13] Graves and Kennedy had yet to form separate entities for statewide campaigns per Louisiana Law.

In the summer of 2017, Lieutenant Governor Billy Nungesser announced that he would not be a candidate for governor in 2019, and had decided to run for re-election. Nungesser said that he had disclosed his plans to run for re-election to then Governor-elect John Bel Edwards during his transition period. During the fall of 2017, U.S. representative Ralph Abraham was reported to be running polls and assembling a staff to enter the race.

Democratic candidates

Advanced to the runoff

Defeated in the jungle primary

Disqualified

Republican candidates

Advanced to the runoff

Defeated in the jungle primary

Declined

Disqualified

Independents

Defeated in jungle primary

Declined

Jungle primary

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
John Bel
Edwards (D)
Ralph
Abraham (R)
Eddie
Rispone (R)
OtherUndecided
Market Research Insight [35] October 8–10, 2019600 (V)± 4.0%52%17%22%8%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [36] October 8–10, 20191,070 (LV)± 2.9%48%23%25%4%
Data for Progress (D) [37] October 4–10, 20191,525 (LV)± 3.4%48%22%26%3% [b]
Spry Strategies (R) [38] [A] October 8–9, 2019700 (LV)± 3.7%39%26%25%10%
JMC Analytics (R) [39] October 5–8, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%45%20%21%6% [c] 8%
Remington (R) [40] [B] October 7, 201942%22%22%7%
Causeway Solutions (R) [41] [B] October 7, 201946%23%20%11%
Emerson College [42] October 4–7, 2019467 (RV)± 4.5%48%19%25%8% [d]
Market Research Insight [43] October 1–7, 2019600 (V)± 4.0%51%19%19%0%11%
JMC Analytics (R) [44] October 3–5, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%47%19%22%4% [e] 8%
Mason-Dixon [45] October 1–4, 2019625 (LV)± 4.0%45%17%22%6% [f] 10%
We Ask America (R) [46] September 24–26, 2019600 (LV)± 3.99%47%17%23%2% [g] 11%
Remington (R) [47] [B] September 25, 20191,040± 2.9%47%22%20%3% [h] 8%
JMC Analytics (R) [48] September 19–21, 2019550 (LV)± 4.2%46%18%21%4% [i] 12%
JMC Analytics (R) [49] September 14–17, 2019± 3.8%41%24%16%4% [j] 16%
Remington (R) [50] [B] September 10–11, 20191,144 (LV)± 2.9%45%27%19%3% [k] 6%
Southern Media & Opinion Research [51] [C] September 3–6, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%47%24%16%0%13%
Market Research Insight [52] August 13–16, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%52%25%19%4%0%
Multi-Quest [53] July 19–21, 2019601 (RV)± 4.0%44%35%6%5% [l] 10%
Remington (R) [54] [B] June 1–2, 20191,471 (LV)± 2.6%42%34%8%16%
JMC Analytics (R) [55] April 25–29, 2019650 (LV)± 3.8%38%23%7%32%
Market Research Insight [56] April 9–11, 2019600 (LV)± 4.1%46%17%5%32%
Remington (R) [57] [B] March 13–14, 20191,464 (LV)± 2.6%44%33%10%13%
LJR Custom Strategies (D) [58] [D] January 14–27, 2019600 (LV)45%17%4%1%32%
Remington (R) [59] [B] December 11–12, 20181,680 (LV)± 2.4%43%31%9%17%
Hypothetical polling

with John Kennedy

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
John Bel
Edwards (D)
Ralph
Abraham (R)
John
Kennedy (R)
Jeff
Landry (R)
Eddie
Rispone (R)
Undecided
SurveyUSA (R) [60] [E] October 15–21, 2018605 (V)± 4.9%36%6%30%8%4%18%
35%38%5%21%
Remington (R) [61] September 11–12, 20181,615 (LV)± 2.5%40%8%37%3%12%
SurveyUSA (R) [62] [E] June 19–22, 2018600 (LV)± 4.8%35%8%35%22%

Endorsements

Ralph Abraham (R)

U.S. presidents

Politicians

Organizations

John Bel Edwards (D)

;U.S. Executive Branch officials

Politicians

Individuals

Organizations

Eddie Rispone (R)

U.S. presidents

Politicians

Individuals

Organizations

Jungle primary results

According to the Louisiana Secretary of State more than 384,000 [95] early votes were cast, a significant increase from the 2015 gubernatorial election in which 234,000 [96] early votes were cast.

2019 Louisiana gubernatorial election [97]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic John Bel Edwards (incumbent) 625,970 46.59
Republican Eddie Rispone 368,319 27.42
Republican Ralph Abraham 317,14923.61
Democratic Oscar Dantzler10,9930.82
Republican Patrick Landry10,9660.82
Independent Gary Landrieu10,0840.75
Total votes1,343,481 100

Runoff

Debates

DatesLocationJohn Bel EdwardsEddie RisponeLink
October 30, 2019 Louisiana Public Broadcasting ParticipantParticipant [98]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [99] TossupOctober 15, 2019
Inside Elections [100] TossupNovember 8, 2019
Sabato's Crystal Ball [101] Lean DNovember 14, 2019

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
John Bel
Edwards (D)
Eddie
Rispone (R)
Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) [102] November 13–15, 20191,107 (LV)± 2.9%49%51%0%
Data for Progress [103] October 29 – November 14, 20191,434 (LV)± 2.6%50.2%49.8%0%
JMC Analytics (R) [104] November 12–13, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%47%46%7%
Targoz Market Research [105] November 7–13, 2019640 (LV)50% [m] 46%4%
Edgwater Research/My People Vote [106] November 11, 2019661 (LV)± 3.8%49%49%2%
Cygnal (R) [107] November 7–9, 2019800 (LV)± 3.5%50%48%2%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. [108] November 5–7, 2019625 (LV)± 4.0%48%46%6%
Edgewater Research/My People Vote [109] October 28, 2019722 (LV)± 3.6%50%47%3%
JMC Analytics (R) [110] October 24–26, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%50%47%4%
We Ask America (R) [111] October 14–16, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%47%47%6%
Spry Strategies (R) [38] [A] October 8–9, 2019700 (LV)± 3.7%41%45%14%
JMC Analytics (R) [39] October 5–8, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%48%39%13%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. [112] October 1–4, 2019625 (LV)± 4.0%51%42%7%
ALG Research (D) [113] [F] September 30 – October 3, 2019900 (LV)52%36%
Remington (R) [114] [B] September 10–11, 20191,144 (LV)± 2.9%49%44%7%
Market Research Insight [52] August 13–16, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%55%45%0%
Multi-Quest [53] July 19–21, 2019601 (RV)± 4.0%49%29%22%
Remington (R) [115] [B] June 1–2, 20191,471 (LV)± 2.6%49%38%13%
JMC Analytics (R) [55] April 25–29, 2019650 (LV)± 3.8%41%28%31%
Market Research Insight [56] April 9–11, 2019600 (LV)± 4.1%47%23%30%
Remington (R) [116] [B] March 13–14, 20191,464 (LV)± 2.6%48%42%10%
LJR Custom Strategies (D) [58] [D] January 14–27, 2019600 (LV)47%19%
Remington (R) [59] [B] December 11–12, 20181,680 (LV)± 2.4%46%39%15%
SurveyUSA (R) [60] [E] October 15–21, 2018605 (V)± 4.9%47%33%19%
Remington (R) [61] September 11–12, 20181,615 (LV)± 2.5%52%29%19%
Hypothetical polling

with Ralph Abraham

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
John Bel
Edwards (D)
Ralph
Abraham (R)
Undecided
Spry Strategies (R) [38] [A] October 8–9, 2019700 (LV)± 3.7%43%45%12%
JMC Analytics (R) [39] October 5–8, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%47%37%16%
Mason-Dixon [45] October 1–4, 2019625 (LV)± 4.0%53%38%9%
Remington (R) [117] [B] September 10–11, 20191,144 (LV)± 2.9%48%44%8%
Market Research Insight [52] August 13–16, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%53%47%0%
Multi-Quest [53] July 19–21, 2019601 (RV)± 4.0%49%39%11%
Remington (R) [118] [B] June 1–2, 20191,471 (LV)± 2.6%45%45%10%
JMC Analytics (R) [55] April 25–29, 2019650 (LV)± 3.8%40%36%24%
Market Research Insight [56] April 9–11, 2019600 (LV)± 4.1%45%28%27%
Remington (R) [119] [B] March 13–14, 20191,464 (LV)± 2.6%47%45%8%
LJR Custom Strategies (D) [58] [D] January 14–27, 2019600 (LV)47%27%
Remington (R) [59] [B] December 11–12, 20181,680 (LV)± 2.4%44%44%12%
SurveyUSA (R) [60] [E] October 15–21, 2018605 (V)± 4.9%45%37%18%
Remington (R) [61] September 11–12, 20181,615 (LV)± 2.5%48%35%17%
Mason-Dixon [120] February 20–22, 2018625 (RV)± 4.0%51%28%21%

with John Kennedy

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
John Bel
Edwards (D)
John
Kennedy (R)
Undecided
Southern Media & Opinion Research [121] November 16–21, 2018500± 4.4%45%49%6%
SurveyUSA (R) [60] [E] October 15–21, 2018605 (V)± 4.9%39%48%14%
Remington (R) [61] September 11–12, 20181,615 (LV)± 2.5%43%47%10%
SurveyUSA (R) [62] [E] June 19–22, 2018600 (LV)± 4.8%37%51%
Mason-Dixon [120] February 20–22, 2018625 (RV)± 4.0%45%44%11%

with Jeff Landry

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
John Bel
Edwards (D)
Jeff
Landry (R)
Undecided
SurveyUSA (R) [60] [E] October 15–21, 2018605 (V)± 4.9%44%39%17%

with Steve Scalise

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
John Bel
Edwards (D)
Steve
Scalise (R)
Undecided
Market Research Insight [56] April 9–11, 2019600 (LV)± 4.1%45%26%29%
Mason-Dixon [120] February 20–22, 2018625 (RV)± 4.0%46%43%11%

with Generic Opponent

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
John Bel
Edwards (D)
Generic
Opponent
Undecided
Remington Research Group/Abraham for Governor [122] [G] June 1–2, 20191,471 (LV)± 2.6%42%48% [n] 10%
Market Research Insight [56] Apr 9–11, 2019600 (LV)± 4.1%36%42%22%
SurveyUSA (R) [62] [E] June 19–22, 2018600 (LV)± 4.8%35%65% [o]

Results

2019 Louisiana gubernatorial election runoff [123]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic John Bel Edwards (incumbent) 774,498 51.33% −4.78%
Republican Eddie Rispone 734,28648.67%+4.78%
Total votes1,508,784 100% N/A
Democratic hold

Parishes that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Despite losing the state, Rispone won 5 of the 6 congressional districts. [124]

DistrictBel EdwardsRisponeRepresentative
1st 45%55% Steve Scalise
2nd 84%16% Cedric Richmond
3rd 40%60% Clay Higgins
4th 45%55% Mike Johnson
5th 45%55% Ralph Abraham
6th 49%51% Garret Graves

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Brian Trascher, chairman of the Donald Trump 2020 presidential campaign in Louisiana
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Poll sponsored by the Ralph Abraham campaign
  3. Poll conducted for undisclosed private client
  4. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Education Reform Now Advocacy, the 501(c)(3) arm of Democrats for Education Reform
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Poll sponsored by the John Kennedy campaign
  6. Poll sponsored by the John Bel Edwards campaign
  7. Poll sponsored by Abraham's campaign

Additional candidates and polling key

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Dantzler (D) with 1%, Landrieu (I) with 1%, and Landry (R) with 1%
  3. Dantzler (D) with 3%, Landrieu (I) with 2%, and Landry (R) with 1%
  4. Landrieu (I) with 4%, Landry (R) with 3%, and Dantzler (D) with 1%
  5. Dantzler (D) with 2%, Landrieu (I), and Landry (R) with 1%
  6. Landrieu (I) with 4%, Landry (R) with 2%, and Dantzler (D) with <1%
  7. Landrieu (I) with 2%
  8. Dantzler (D) with 2% and Landrieu (I) with 1%
  9. Dantzler (D) with 2%, Landrieu (I), and Landry (R) with <1%
  10. Dantzler (D) with 2%, Landrieu (I) and Landry (R) with 1%
  11. Landrieu (I) with 2%, "Other candidates" with 1%, and Dantzler (D) with 0%
  12. Landrieu (I) with 4%, "Refused" with 1%
  13. Figures use the 'likely voters with early voters and leaners' metric
  14. "We should give someone new a chance" with 48% as opposed to "Edwards has done a good enough job as Governor to be re-elected"
  15. "Would consider voting for someone else" with 51% as opposed to "would vote to re-elect Edwards"; "unsure" with 14%

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References

  1. "2019 ELECTIONS" (PDF). Louisiana Secretary of State.
  2. Ballard, Mark. "In rarely seen twist, last-minute candidate Taylor Barras selected Louisiana House speaker". The Advocate. Retrieved May 30, 2017.
  3. "John Bel Edwards, Jeff Landry head to court over LGBT issues: 4 things to know". NOLA.com. Archived from the original on December 13, 2017. Retrieved May 30, 2017.
  4. "Analysis: Jeff Landry to take leadership role of Vitter PAC". The Washington Times . Retrieved May 30, 2017.
  5. "Louisiana congressional race: Career public servant vs. YouTube star". NOLA.com. Retrieved May 30, 2017.
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