2019 United States gubernatorial elections

2019 United States gubernatorial elections

←  2018 November 5, 2019 October 12 (Louisiana) November 16 (Louisiana runoff) 2020  →
3 governorships
Majority party Minority party   Party Republican Democratic Seats before 27 23 Seats after 26 24 Seat change 1 1 Popular vote 1,898,436 1,898,756 Percentage 49.48% 49.49% Seats up 2 1 Seats won 1 2
Map of the results      Democratic gain     Republican hold      Democratic hold      No election

United States gubernatorial elections were held on November 5, 2019, in Kentucky and Mississippi, and on October 12, 2019, with a runoff on November 16, in Louisiana. These elections formed part of the 2019 United States elections. The last regular gubernatorial elections for all three states were in 2015. The Democrats had to defend an incumbent in Louisiana, while the Republicans had to defend an incumbent in Kentucky plus an open seat in Mississippi. Though all three seats up were in typically Republican states, the election cycle became unexpectedly competitive: Kentucky and Louisiana were seen as highly contested races; and Mississippi's race ultimately became closer than usual, despite being seen as favorable for the Republicans.

Democrats were able to hold their seat in Louisiana and flip the governor's seat in Kentucky, while Republicans successfully kept the Mississippi governorship by winning the open seat. As a result, the Democrats gained a net of one seat, bringing the total number of Democratic governors to 24, while Republicans were reduced to 26 governors, continuing a streak of governor's seat gains by Democrats under Republican President Donald Trump that began in 2017.

This is the first time since 2003 in which a party made a net gain of seats in this cycle of governorships, and the first time since 1991 that Kentucky and Louisiana elected candidates of the same party. Democrats also won the total popular vote for gubernatorial elections for the third year in a row, and for the first time since 1991 in this cycle of governorships, albeit by an extremely narrow margin of 320 votes, or 0.01%. Additionally, these are the first gubernatorial elections since 1981 in which all of the margins of victory were under ten points.

As of 2024, this is the last time an incumbent Republican governor lost re-election. It is also the last time that Democrats won the governorship in Louisiana.

Pre-election composition

Kentucky and Louisiana were seen as the two competitive races in this cycle.

Kentucky governor Matt Bevin had very low approval ratings over issues such as Medicare expansion, pensions, and education. Bevin was the least popular governor in the United States, with only a 33% approval rating, in April 2019. ^{[1] [2] [3]} When teachers walked out to protest education funding, Bevin blamed them for child molestation and called them "selfish thugs". ^[4] Bevin also attempted to roll back the state's Medicare expansion, which would've lead to 500,000 people in the state losing their health insurance, and the measure was deeply unpopular in Kentucky and never passed. ^[5]

In Louisiana, Democratic incumbent John Bel Edwards was popular in the deep red state, as he had worked across the aisle with a number of issues such as abortion. Edwards also brought Medicaid expansion to the state, a move that garnered praise and was popular. ^[6] Even though Edwards was popular, the sheer amount of Republicans in the state made the race competitive.

Mississippi, whose governor was term-limited, was one of the most Republican states in the country and hadn't voted a Democrat as governor since 1999, and Republican Tate Reeves was a long serving public servant in the state. However, a formidable campaign by Democrat Jim Hood made the race closer than initially expected. Hood made bringing Medicaid expansion to Mississippi the central issue of his campaign, which resonated with voters in the state as many people wanted improvements to health care. ^[7]

Election predictions

Several sites and individuals publish predictions of competitive seats. These predictions look at factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan leanings of the state (reflected in part by the state's Cook Partisan Voting Index rating). The predictions assign ratings to each state, with the rating indicating the predicted advantage that a party has in winning that seat.

Most election predictors use:

• "tossup": no advantage
• "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
• "lean": slight advantage
• "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
• "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory

State	PVI	Incumbent [8]	Last race	Cook Oct 15, 2019 [9]	IE Nov 8, 2019 [10]	Sabato Nov 14, 2019 [11]	Result
Kentucky	R+15	Matt Bevin	52.5% R	Tossup	Tossup	Lean R	Beshear 49.2% D (flip)
Louisiana	R+11	John Bel Edwards	56.1% D	Tossup	Tossup	Lean D	Edwards 51.3% D
Mississippi	R+9	Phil Bryant (term-limited)	66.4% R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Reeves 51.9% R

Race summary

Results

State	Incumbent	Party	First elected	Result	Candidates
Kentucky	Matt Bevin	Republican	2015	Incumbent lost re-election. New governor elected. Democratic gain.	▌Y Andy Beshear (Democratic) 49.2% ▌ Matt Bevin (Republican) 48.8% ▌John Hicks (Libertarian) 2.0%
Louisiana	John Bel Edwards	Democratic	2015	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y John Bel Edwards (Democratic) 51.3% ▌ Eddie Rispone (Republican) 48.7%
Mississippi	Phil Bryant	Republican	2011	Incumbent term-limited. New governor elected. Republican hold.	▌Y Tate Reeves (Republican) 51.9% ▌ Jim Hood (Democratic) 46.8% ▌David Singletary (Independent) 1.0%

Closest States

States where the margin of victory was under 1%:

1. Kentucky, 0.37%

States where the margin of victory was between 1% and 5%:

1. Louisiana, 2.66%

States where the margin of victory was between 5% and 10%:

1. Mississippi, 5.08%

Red denotes states won by Republicans. Blue denotes states won by Democrats.

Kentucky

Main article: 2019 Kentucky gubernatorial election

2019 Kentucky gubernatorial election

←  2015 November 5, 2019 2023  →

Nominee Andy Beshear Matt Bevin Party Democratic Republican Running mate Jacqueline Coleman Ralph Alvarado Popular vote 709,890 704,754 Percentage 49.2% 48.8%

County results Beshear:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70% Bevin:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%

Governor before election Matt Bevin Republican Elected Governor Andy Beshear Democratic

The Democratic nominee, Kentucky Attorney General Andy Beshear, defeated Republican incumbent Matt Bevin by a margin of just over 5,000 votes, or 0.37%, making this the closest gubernatorial election in Kentucky since 1899 by votes, and the closest ever by percentage. ^[12]

Bevin won 97 counties, while Beshear won only 23 counties. ^[13] Beshear carried only two of the state's six congressional districts, but those districts were the state's two most urbanized, the Louisville-based 3rd and the Lexington-based 6th. ^[14]

Bevin conceded on November 14, ^[15] after a recanvass took place that day ^{[16] [15] [17]} that did not materially change the vote count. ^[15] Libertarian John Hicks also qualified for the ballot and received 2% of the vote. Statewide turnout was just over 42%, ^[18] much higher than for the 2015 gubernatorial election. The result was a major swing from 2016, when Donald Trump won the state by 30 points and Republicans gained a supermajority in both chambers of the Kentucky General Assembly.

Kentucky Republican primary

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Matt Bevin (incumbent)	136,060	52.36
	Republican	Robert Goforth	101,343	38.99
	Republican	William Woods	14,004	5.39
	Republican	Ike Lawrence	8,447	3.25
Total votes			259,854	100.00

Kentucky Democratic primary

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Andy Beshear	149,438	37.88
	Democratic	Rocky Adkins	125,970	31.93
	Democratic	Adam Edelen	110,159	27.92
	Democratic	Geoff Young	8,923	2.26
Total votes			394,490	100.00

Kentucky general election ^[19]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Andy Beshear	709,890	49.20%	+5.38
	Republican	Matt Bevin (incumbent)	704,754	48.83	–3.72
	Libertarian	John Hicks	28,433	1.97	N/A
Total votes			1,443,077	100.00%
	Democratic gain from Republican

Louisiana

Main article: 2019 Louisiana gubernatorial election

See also: 2019 Louisiana lieutenant gubernatorial election

2019 Louisiana gubernatorial election

←  2015 November 16, 2019 2023  →

Nominee John Bel Edwards Eddie Rispone Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 774,498 734,268 Percentage 51.3% 48.7%

Parish results Edwards:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90% Rispone:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%

Governor before election John Bel Edwards Democratic Elected Governor John Bel Edwards Democratic

Incumbent Democratic governor John Bel Edwards won reelection to a second term, defeating Republican businessman Eddie Rispone. Edwards became the first Louisiana Democrat to secure consecutive terms since Edwin Edwards (no relation to John Bel Edwards) in 1975. It was the closest Louisiana gubernatorial election since 1979.

Under Louisiana's jungle primary system, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party, and voters may vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. Because no candidate received an absolute majority of the vote during the primary election on October 12, 2019, a runoff election was held on November 16, 2019, between the top two candidates in the primary, Edwards and Rispone. ^[20] Louisiana is the only state that has a jungle primary system (California and Washington have a similar top two primary system).

According to the Louisiana Secretary of State more than 384,000 ^[21] early votes were cast, a significant increase from the 2015 gubernatorial election in which 234,000 ^[22] early votes were cast.

Louisiana blanket primary ^[23]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	John Bel Edwards (incumbent)	625,970	46.59
	Republican	Eddie Rispone	368,319	27.42
	Republican	Ralph Abraham	317,149	23.61
	Democratic	Oscar Dantzler	10,993	0.82
	Republican	Patrick Landry	10,966	0.82
	Independent	Gary Landrieu	10,084	0.75
Total votes			1,343,481	100.00

Louisiana general election ^[24]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	John Bel Edwards (incumbent)	774,498	51.33%	–4.78
	Republican	Eddie Rispone	734,268	48.67	+4.78
Total votes			1,508,784	100.00%
	Democratic hold

Mississippi

Main article: 2019 Mississippi gubernatorial election

2019 Mississippi gubernatorial election

←  2015 November 5, 2019 2023  →

Nominee Tate Reeves Jim Hood Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 459,396 414,368 Percentage 51.91% 46.83%

County results Reeves:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90% Hood:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%

Governor before election Phil Bryant Republican Elected Governor Tate Reeves Republican

Incumbent governor Phil Bryant was ineligible to run for a third term due to term limits. The Democratic Party nominated incumbent attorney general Jim Hood, the only Democrat holding statewide office in Mississippi; the Republican Party nominated incumbent lieutenant governor Tate Reeves after a runoff.

Situated in the Deep South, Mississippi is one of the most Republican states in the country. No Democrat has been elected to the governorship since Ronnie Musgrove in 1999. However, the state's Democratic Attorney General, Jim Hood, who had held his office since 2004 and had yet to lose a statewide election, put the Republican's winning streak of four elections in a row to the test, as the race became unusually competitive. Reeves defeated Hood in the general election by a margin of 5.1%, making this the closest a Democrat had come to winning a Mississippi gubernatorial election since 1999, where Musgrove won with 49.6% of the vote. ^[25] Hood flipped the counties of Chickasaw, Lafayette, Madison, Panola, and Warren, which had all voted for Republican Donald Trump in the 2016 United States presidential election.

Mississippi Republican primary ^[26]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Tate Reeves	187,312	48.90
	Republican	Bill Waller Jr.	128,010	33.42
	Republican	Robert Foster	67,758	17.68
Total votes			383,080	100.00

Mississippi Republican primary runoff ^[27]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Tate Reeves	179,623	54.13
	Republican	Bill Waller Jr.	152,201	45.87
Total votes			331,824	100.00

Mississippi Democratic primary ^[28]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Jim Hood	208,634	69.00
	Democratic	Michael Brown	33,247	10.99
	Democratic	Velesha Williams	20,844	6.89
	Democratic	Robert Shuler Smith	20,395	6.74
	Democratic	Robert Ray	5,609	1.85
	Democratic	William Bond Compton Jr.	5,321	1.76
	Democratic	Albert Wilson	5,122	1.69
	Democratic	Gregory Wash	3,218	1.06
Total votes			302,390	100.00

Mississippi general election ^[29]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Tate Reeves	459,396	51.91%	–14.47
	Democratic	Jim Hood	414,368	46.83%	+14.58
	Independent	David Singletary	8,522	0.96%	N/A
	Constitution	Bob Hickingbottom	2,625	0.30%	N/A
Total votes			884,911	100.00%
	Republican hold

See also

• 2019 United States elections
  • 2019 Kentucky elections
  • 2019 Louisiana elections
  • 2019 Mississippi elections

References

1. Alan Greenblatt (May 20, 2019). "Why America's Least Popular Governor Will Likely Get Reelected". Governing.
2. Martin, Jonathan (October 29, 2019). "Kentucky Governor's Race Tests Impact of Impeachment in States". The New York Times.
3. Craven, Julia (November 6, 2019). "Beshear Beats Bevin in Kentucky Governor's Race". Slate . Archived from the original on November 6, 2019. Retrieved November 6, 2019.
4. Golshan, Tara. "Matt Bevin's defeat in Kentucky wasn't just about him". Vox. Retrieved November 30, 2019.
5. Weixel, Nathan. "Democrats make Medicaid center of Kentucky governor fight". The Hill. Retrieved November 30, 2019.
6. Jaspen, Bruce. "In Blow To Trump's Medicaid Policies, Democrat Wins In Louisiana". Forbes. Retrieved November 30, 2019.
7. Inskeep, Steve. "Mississippi Governor Election Preview". NPR. Retrieved November 30, 2019.
8. Parentheses around an incumbent's name indicates that the incumbent is retiring, possibly due to term limits.
9. "2020 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-04-19.
10. "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-03-16.
11. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 Governor". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Archived from the original on 2019-03-25. Retrieved 2019-03-16.
12. "Watch live: Democrat Andy Beshear speaks after declaring victory in Kentucky election". CBS News. November 6, 2019. Retrieved 6 November 2019.
13. "Voter turnout for 2019 general election". WKYT. November 6, 2019.
14. J. Miles Coleman. "... Beshear carried #KY03 (Louisville) by 37% & #KY06 (metro Lexington) by 14%. He only won two CDs, but his districts also had the highest turnout. Beshear also kept #KY04 (Cincy suburbs) close," Twitter.
15. "Gov. Matt Bevin won't contest results, concedes from gubernatorial race". WLKY. 14 November 2019. Retrieved 14 November 2019.
16. Lemieux, Melissa (November 5, 2019). "Gov. Matt Bevin refuses to concede Kentucky race, even after Secretary of State calls it for Democrat Andy Beshear". Newsweek. Retrieved 6 November 2019.
17. Barton, Ryland (2019-11-06). "Kentucky GOP Gov. Bevin Officially Requests Recanvass Of Election Results". NPR.org. Retrieved 2019-11-07.
18. ACQUISTO, Alex. "Voter turnout tops 41 percent in tight race for Kentucky governor". Lexington Herald Leader. Retrieved November 5, 2019.
19. "2019 General Election". Kentucky State Board of Elections. Retrieved November 6, 2019.
20. "Elections Calendar 2019" (PDF). www.sos.la.gov. Retrieved March 13, 2023.
21. "Louisiana Secretary of State Statistics" (PDF).
22. "Louisiana Secretary of State Statistics" (PDF).
23. "Unofficial Results". Louisiana Secretary of State. Retrieved October 12, 2019.
24. "Louisiana Secretary of State - Live Election Results". voterportal.sos.la.gov. Retrieved 17 November 2019.
25. Collins, Sean (2019-11-05). "Republican Tate Reeves wins a surprisingly close race, becoming Mississippi's next governor". Vox. Retrieved 2019-11-06.
26. "2019 Republican". Mississippi Secretary of State. Archived from the original on August 18, 2019. Retrieved August 18, 2019.
27. "2019 Republican Primary Runoff". Mississippi Secretary of State. Archived from the original on September 30, 2019. Retrieved September 30, 2019.
28. "2019 Democratic Primary". Mississippi Secretary of State. Archived from the original on August 18, 2019. Retrieved August 18, 2019.
29. "2019 GENERAL ELECTION". Mississippi Secretary of State. Archived from the original on December 5, 2019. Retrieved December 4, 2019.