2015 Mississippi gubernatorial election

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2015 Mississippi gubernatorial election
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Nominee Phil Bryant Robert Gray
Party Republican Democratic
Electoral vote8537
Popular vote480,399234,858
Percentage66.24%32.38%
2015 Mississippi gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2015 Mississippi Gubernatorial election by congressional district.svg
Bryant:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Gray:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Governor before election

Phil Bryant
Republican

Elected Governor

Phil Bryant
Republican

The 2015 Mississippi gubernatorial election took place on November 3, 2015, to elect the governor of Mississippi. Incumbent Republican governor Phil Bryant ran for re-election to a second and final term in office. This is the highest percentage that a Republican has ever won in a gubernatorial election in Mississippi.

Contents

The election gained national news coverage and attention due to the unexpected Democratic nominee selection of truck driver and former firefighter, Robert Gray, who had not had any political experience prior to his candidacy. [1]

As of 2023, this is by far the best performance by a Republican in a gubernatorial election in Mississippi. This is also the only time that the following counties have voted Republican for governor: Clay, Marshall, Quitman, Sharkey, and Tallahatchie.

Background

Mississippi is one of nine states and territories that has lifetime limits of two terms for its governor. In 2011, with incumbent Republican governor Haley Barbour term-limited, Republican Lieutenant Governor Phil Bryant was elected to succeed him. Bryant won the Republican primary with 59% of the vote and then defeated the Democratic nominee, Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree, with 61% of the vote.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Result

Republican primary results [8]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Phil Bryant (incumbent) 256,689 91.86%
Republican Mitch Young22,7388.14%
Total votes279,427 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Robert Gray, truck driver and retired firefighter [3] [9]
  • Valerie Short, physician [10]
  • Vicki Slater, attorney [11] [12]

Declined

Result

Results by county Mississippi Governor D Primary 2015.svg
Results by county
Democratic primary results [18]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Robert Gray 152,087 50.80%
Democratic Vicki Slater91,10430.43%
Democratic Valerie Short56,17718.77%
Total votes299,368 100.00%

Reform Party nomination

Candidate

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [20] Safe ROctober 26, 2015
Rothenberg Political Report [21] Safe ROctober 27, 2015
Sabato's Crystal Ball [22] Safe ROctober 29, 2015
DKE [23] Safe ROctober 29, 2015

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Phil
Bryant (R)		Robert
Gray (D)		Shawn
O'Hara (Ref)		Undecided
Mason-Dixon [24] October 21–25, 2015625± 4%66%28%1%5%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Phil
Bryant (R)		Jim
Hood (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [25] July 10–13, 2014691± 3.7%44%33%—22%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Phil
Bryant (R)		Brandon
Presley (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [25] July 10–13, 2014691± 3.7%49%26%—25%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Phil
Bryant (R)		Valerie
Short (D)		OtherUndecided
Mason-Dixon [26] April 21–23, 2015625± 4%63%28%3% [27] 6%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Phil
Bryant (R)		Vicki
Slater (D)		OtherUndecided
Mason-Dixon [28] April 21–23, 2015625± 4%61%30%2% [27] 7%

Results

CandidatePartyPopular voteElectoral vote
Votes%Votes%
Phil Bryant (incumbent) Republican Party 480,39966.248569.67
Robert Gray Democratic Party 234,85832.383730.33
Shawn O'Hara Reform Party 9,9501.37
Total725,207100.00122100.00
Source: Mississippi Secretary of State

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

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References

  1. ↑ Robertson, Campbell (September 7, 2015). "Chosen by Mississippi Democrats, Shy Trucker is at a Crossroad". The New York Times.
  2. ↑ Geoff Pender (January 18, 2015). "Power Rankings: Top Session Issues". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved January 28, 2015.
  3. 1 2 Wagster Pettus, Emily (February 26, 2015). "Bryant to face primary challenge from Mitch Young". The Clarion-Ledger . Retrieved February 27, 2015.
  4. ↑ Geoff Pender (July 19, 2014). "Pender: Who's running for what in '15". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved September 7, 2014.
  5. ↑ Pender, Geoff (February 26, 2015). "McDaniel running for re-election to state Senate". The Clarion-Ledger . Retrieved February 27, 2015.
  6. ↑ Alexander Burns (June 24, 2014). "Mississippi's revolution may be just starting". Politico. Retrieved June 24, 2014.
  7. ↑ Pender, Geoff (February 26, 2015). "Watson running for re-election, not higher office". The Clarion-Ledger . Retrieved February 27, 2015.
  8. ↑ "2015 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY". Mississippi Secretary of State. Archived from the original on February 25, 2021. Retrieved August 18, 2019.
  9. ↑ Nave, R.L. (August 5, 2015). "Robert Gray in (Truck) Driver's Seat to Challenge Gov. Phil Bryant". Jackson Free Press . Retrieved August 5, 2015.
  10. ↑ Wagster Pettus, Emily (February 27, 2015). "All 8 statewide Mississippi officials challenged in election". The Sun Herald. Archived from the original on March 1, 2015. Retrieved March 1, 2015.
  11. 1 2 3 Pender, Geoff (February 14, 2015). "Candidates playing chicken with deadline". The Clarion-Ledger . Retrieved February 15, 2015.
  12. ↑ Pender, Geoff (February 19, 2015). "Democratic Party announcing Slater for governor". The Clarion-Ledger . Retrieved February 19, 2015.
  13. ↑ Abby Livingston (September 25, 2013). "Mississippi Republicans Wait for Cochran's Decision". Roll Call. Retrieved September 26, 2013.
  14. ↑ Floyd Ingram (July 31, 2013). "Jim Hood to open state office in Houston". Chickasaw Journal. Retrieved July 23, 2014.
  15. ↑ "AP analysis: Mississippi party leaders preparing strategy for 2015". Gulf Live. August 25, 2013. Retrieved July 23, 2014.
  16. ↑ Wright, Jesse (January 13, 2015). "'Draft Bill' movement not gaining traction with Luckett". Clarksdale Press Register . Archived from the original on January 18, 2015. Retrieved January 14, 2015.
  17. ↑ Gates, Jimmie E. (December 30, 2014). "Brandon Presley says he isn't running for governor". The Clarion-Ledger . Retrieved January 1, 2015.
  18. ↑ "2015 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY". Mississippi Secretary of State . Retrieved August 18, 2019.
  19. ↑ "2015 Candidate Qualifying List" (PDF). Mississippi Secretary of State. Retrieved July 28, 2015.
  20. ↑ "2015-16 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report.
  21. ↑ "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". www.insideelections.com.
  22. ↑ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 Governor". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org.
  23. ↑ "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 21, 2015.
  24. ↑ Mason-Dixon
  25. 1 2 Public Policy Polling
  26. ↑ Mason-Dixon Archived May 20, 2015, at the Wayback Machine
  27. 1 2 Shawn O'Hara (Reform)
  28. ↑ Mason-Dixon Archived May 20, 2015, at the Wayback Machine

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