2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election

Last updated

2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election
Flag of Mississippi.svg
←  2019 November 7, 2023 2027  →
Turnout42.6%
  Gov. Tate Reeves Signs House Bill 1486 (cropped).jpg Brandon Presley, MS Public Service Commissioner.jpg
Nominee Tate Reeves Brandon Presley
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote418,233391,614
Percentage50.94%47.70%
2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election by CD.svg
2023 MS GOV.svg
Reeves:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Presley:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No data
Governor before election

Tate Reeves
Republican

Elected Governor

Tate Reeves
Republican

The 2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election was held on November 7, 2023, to elect the governor of Mississippi. Incumbent Republican governor Tate Reeves won re-election to a second term, defeating Democratic nominee, Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley. [1]

Contents

Primary elections were held on August 8. [2] Reeves won the Republican nomination, while Presley won the Democratic nomination unopposed.

The race was considered to be competitive, with Reeves moderately favored. Reeves won re-election, but this was the best performance for a Democrat, the worst for a Republican, and the closest Mississippi gubernatorial election since 1999. It was also the closest ever gubernatorial election in the state won by a Republican, [3] and the closest gubernatorial election in the 2023 cycle.

Background

This was the first Mississippi gubernatorial election since a 2020 referendum altered the election process. Previously, under a provision crafted as part of the 1890 Constitution of Mississippi, a candidate needed a majority of voters across the state and a majority of voters in a majority of state House of Representatives districts; if no candidates achieved such a result, the state House of Representatives would choose between the top two finishers, something that only happened in 1999.

This structure was referred to as Mississippi's version of the electoral college; it was originally crafted, in the words of the Mississippi Historical Society, as part of "the legal basis and bulwark of the design of white supremacy". In the 21st century, because the state House districts favor Republican candidates, the provision was seen as helping Republican gubernatorial candidates as well. [4] Under the new law, any candidate who receives a majority of statewide votes will be elected; if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, a statewide runoff election between the top two candidates will be held. [5]

A socially conservative Southern state, Mississippi is considered safely Republican at the federal and state levels, with both of its U.S. senators, all but one of its U.S. representatives and all statewide executive officers currently belonging to the Republican Party. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump comfortably carried Mississippi by 17 percentage points. Incumbent governor Tate Reeves was first elected in 2019, narrowly defeating then-attorney general Jim Hood, who was the only Democrat elected to hold statewide office in Mississippi at the time.

Most analysts considered Reeves to be a favorite to win reelection, given the state's partisan lean and incumbency advantage. Nonetheless, the race was considered to be unusually competitive throughout the Fall as polling showed the race within the margin of error. Weaknesses for Reeves included his narrow victory four years prior, the heavy criticism he has faced for his handling of the Jackson water crisis, and for his ties to a welfare corruption scandal, both of which led him to have the lowest approval ratings of any Republican governor in the country. The Democratic nominee, Brandon Presley, was considered to be a strong general election candidate; he represented the Northern district on the Mississippi Public Service Commission since 2008, despite that district having a strong Republican bent, and held relatively moderate views on social issues, thus being closer to fitting the state. [6] [7]

Mississippi has the highest rate of disenfranchisement in the United States and around 16% of the African American voting age population is disenfranchised. [8]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		David
Hardigree		Tate
Reeves		John
Witcher		OtherUndecided
Mississippi Today/Siena College [24] Jun 4–7, 2023646 (RV)± 4.8%0%59%0%8% [b] 33%
American Strategies [25] [A] May 22–24, 2023646 (LV)± 3.9%2%70%4%-24%
Hypothetical polling

Tate Reeves vs. Bill Waller Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Tate
Reeves		Bill
Waller Jr.		Undecided
Mississippi Today/Siena College [27] January 3–8, 2023821 (RV)± 4.6%52%29%19%

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Reeves >90% 80-90% 70-80% 60-70% 2023 Mississippi gubernatorial Republican primary results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Reeves
  •   >90%
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
Republican primary results [28]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Tate Reeves (incumbent) 281,213 74.7
Republican John Witcher66,69817.7
Republican David Grady Hardigree28,5617.6
Total votes376,472 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Disqualified

Declined

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 9, 2023 [35]
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Brandon Presley$1,760,057$773,134$1,714,455

Results

Democratic primary results [36]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Brandon Presley 196,307 100.0
Total votes196,307 100.0

Independents

Candidates

Withdrawn

  • Gwendolyn Gray, nonprofit executive [10] (endorsed Presley, remained on ballot) [37]

Declined

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [38] Lean ROctober 23, 2023
Inside Elections [39] Lean RSeptember 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [40] Likely ROctober 16, 2023
Elections Daily [41] Likely RNovember 7, 2023

Debate

DatesLocationPresleyReevesLink
November 1, 2023 WAPT Studios
Jackson 		ParticipantParticipant YouTube

Endorsements

Tate Reeves (R)

Executive Branch officials

State senators

State representatives

Local officials

Organizations

Brandon Presley (D)

Executive Branch officials

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State senators

State representatives

Local officials

Individuals

Labor unions

Newspapers and other media

Organizations

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Tate
Reeves (R)		Brandon
Presley (D)		Other
[d] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics [69] August 20 – October 2, 2023October 5, 202251.5%42.0%6.5%Reeves +9.5%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Tate
Reeves (R)		Brandon
Presley (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [70] [B] October 19–20, 2023601 (V)± 4.0%46%45%–10%
Magnolia Tribune/Mason-Dixon [71] September 27 – October 2, 2023625 (LV)± 4.0%51%43%–6%
Mississippi Today/Siena College [72] August 20–28, 2023650 (LV)± 4.0%52%41%1% [e] 6%
Impact Research (D) [73] [C] August 6–9, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%46%46%–8%
OnMessage Inc. (R) [74] [D] July 7, 2023––49%32%–19%
Impact Research (D) [75] [C] April 24–27, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%47%44%–9%
Mississippi Today/Siena College [76] April 16–20, 2023783 (RV)± 4.3%49%38%7% [f] 6%
Magnolia Tribune/Mason-Dixon [77] March 6–10, 2023625 (RV) [g] ± 4.0%46%39%–15%
Mississippi Today/Tulchin Research [78] [E] January 21–25, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%43%47%–10%
Mississippi Today/Siena College [79] January 3–8, 2023821 (RV)± 4.6%43%39%2% [h] 14%
Impact Research (D) [75] [C] December 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%49%42%–9%
Hypothetical polling

Tate Reeves vs. generic opponent

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Tate
Reeves (R)		Generic
Opponent		Undecided
Mississippi Today/Siena College [76] April 16–20, 2023783 (RV)± 4.3%36%60%4%
Mississippi Today/Siena College [79] January 3–8, 2023821 (RV)± 4.6%33%57%10%

Results

2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election swing by margin.svg
2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election trend.svg
2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election [80]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Tate Reeves (incumbent) 418,233 50.94% –0.97%
Democratic Brandon Presley 391,61447.70%+0.87%
Independent Gwendolyn Gray (withdrawn)11,1531.36%N/A
Total votes821,000 100.00%
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Reeves won 3 of 4 congressional districts. [81]

DistrictReevesPresleyRepresentative
1st 58.0%40.7% Trent Kelly
2nd 31.4%67.3% Bennie Thompson
3rd 55.7%43.1% Michael Guest
4th 62.3%36.0% Mike Ezell

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ "Someone else" with 8%
  3. ↑ Waller is a Republican, but media sources speculated that he might run as an independent.
  4. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  5. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%
  6. ↑ "Not going to vote" with 6%; "Someone else" with 1%
  7. ↑ Additionally, "[a]ll indicated they were likely to vote in the November general election".
  8. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 2%

Partisan clients

  1. ↑ This poll was sponsored by the National Apartment Association and the National Association of Realtors. The poll was never officially released, and was instead leaked by the Magnolia Tribune in June 2023. [26]
  2. ↑ This poll was sponsored by the Democratic Governors Association
  3. 1 2 3 This poll was sponsored by Presley's campaign
  4. ↑ This poll was sponsored by Reeves' campaign
  5. ↑ This poll was sponsored by the Southern Poverty Law Center

References

  1. ↑ "Republican Gov. Tate Reeves wins re-election in Mississippi". NBC News. November 8, 2023. Retrieved December 12, 2023.
  2. ↑ "Mississippi elections, 2023". Ballotpedia. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
  3. ↑ Leip, Dave. "Mississippi Election Results". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Retrieved November 18, 2023.
  4. ↑ "How a Jim Crow law still shapes Mississippi's elections". October 11, 2019.
  5. ↑ "For the first time in state history, voters remove Jim Crow provision from Mississippi Constitution". November 4, 2020.
  6. ↑ Vakil, Caroline (January 23, 2023). "Democrats see Mississippi governor's race as ripe for an upset". The Hill. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
  7. ↑ Lucas, Fred (April 21, 2023). "3 deep red state governors' races that could be surprisingly competitive in 2023 — and even expand Dem control". Fox News. Retrieved May 3, 2023.
  8. ↑ Levine, Sam (January 8, 2022). "The racist 1890 law that's still blocking thousands of Black Americans from voting". The Guardian . Archived from the original on February 26, 2024.
  9. 1 2 "Mississippi Republican Gov. Tate Reeves files for reelection bid". Clarion Ledger . January 3, 2023.
  10. 1 2 "Candidate qualifying deadline passes and reveals slate of 2023 statewide candidates". www.wlbt.com. February 1, 2022. Retrieved February 2, 2023.
  11. ↑ "Mississippi doctor against vaccine mandate runs for governor". www.wlbt.com. January 24, 2023. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  12. 1 2 3 Harrison, Bobby (October 16, 2022). "Gov. Tate Reeves' low poll numbers could embolden opposition in 2023". Mississippi Today .
  13. ↑ "Number of election qualifiers has trickled as 5 p.m. deadline approaches today".
  14. ↑ Pender, Geoff (December 21, 2020). "Gov. Tate Reeves straddling fences, catching flak from all quarters". Mississippi Today . Mississippi News and Information Corporation. Retrieved February 8, 2021.
  15. ↑ Bakken, Bob (December 27, 2022). "Foster announces run for supervisor".
  16. ↑ "Ag Commissioner Andy Gipson announces re-election bid for 2023". July 28, 2022.
  17. ↑ Harrison, Bobby (August 4, 2022). "House in limbo as Speaker Philip Gunn weighs run for governor". Mississippi Today. Retrieved September 29, 2022.
  18. ↑ "Mississippi Speaker of the House Philip Gunn announces he will not run for reelection". The Clarion-Ledger. November 9, 2022. Retrieved November 11, 2022.
  19. 1 2 "Bill Waller Jr. 'strongly considering' a primary challenge of Gov. Tate Reeves". January 3, 2023.
  20. ↑ "Ex-justice Waller will not run for Mississippi governor". AP NEWS. January 31, 2023. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
  21. ↑ Vance, Taylore (December 17, 2022). "Secretary of State Michael Watson mulls move to oust Gov. Tate Reeves". Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal . Retrieved December 20, 2022.
  22. ↑ Journal, TAYLOR VANCE Daily (January 25, 2023). "Michael Watson will run for re-election as secretary of state". Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  23. ↑ Bonelli, Cam (August 15, 2022). "Auditor talks future". Laurel Leader-Call . Shad White isn't planning a run for governor, but he will be running for reelection as state auditor.
  24. ↑ Mississippi Today/Siena College
  25. ↑ American Strategies
  26. ↑ Latino, Russ (June 26, 2023). "Newly leaked poll put McDaniel up in Lt. Governor race, BUT…". Magnolia Tribune. Retrieved June 23, 2023.
  27. ↑ Mississippi Today/Siena College
  28. ↑ "2023 Republican primary results". Mississippi Secretary of State . Retrieved September 16, 2023.
  29. 1 2 Hernandez, Rachel (January 12, 2023). "Brandon Presley joins race for Mississippi governor". WKRG . Retrieved January 12, 2023.
  30. 1 2 Harrison, Bobby (February 17, 2023). "Democrats disqualify Brandon Presley's primary challengers for governor". Mississippi Today . Retrieved January 12, 2023.
  31. ↑ Salers, Caleb (May 26, 2023). "Formerly disqualified Democratic gubernatorial candidate wins lawsuit against party, back on ballot". Supertalk Mississippi . Retrieved May 27, 2023.
  32. ↑ Pittman, Ashton (June 13, 2023). "Presley Will Be Lone Democrat In Governor Primary, Court Rules". Mississippi Free Press. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
  33. ↑ "Former congressional candidate Shuwaski Young preparing for 2023 statewide run as Democrat". January 9, 2023. Young did tease his belief that Democrats will field a strong candidate to challenge Reeves for governor, an office that Young has said he is not seeking.
  34. ↑ Crown, Kayode (January 10, 2023). "Shuwaski Young Launches Bid For Mississippi Secretary of State". Mississippi Free Press. Retrieved January 12, 2023.
  35. ↑ "Report of Contributions and Dispursements". Mississippi Secretary of State. June 9, 2023. Retrieved June 19, 2023.
  36. ↑ "2023 Democratic primary results". Mississippi Secretary of State . Retrieved September 16, 2023.
  37. ↑ "Gwendolyn Gray endorses Brandon Presley for governor". WJTV. October 9, 2023. Retrieved October 9, 2023.
  38. ↑ Taylor, Jessica (October 23, 2023). "Mississippi Governor Moves From Likely To Lean Republican". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 23, 2023.
  39. ↑ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections . Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  40. ↑ "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  41. ↑ Cunningham, Eric (November 7, 2023). "Final 2023 Gubernatorial Ratings: Kentucky Moves to Leans Democratic, Mississippi is Likely Republican". Elections Daily. Retrieved November 7, 2023.
  42. ↑ "Donald Trump endorses Gov. Tate Reeves ahead of Nov. 7 election". Mississippi Today . October 31, 2023. Retrieved October 31, 2023.
  43. 1 2 "Democrat Brandon Presley seeks big turnout in Nov. 7 bid to unseat Mississippi's Republican governor". www.timesargus.com. October 29, 2023. Retrieved October 30, 2023.
  44. ↑ "Tate Reeves endorsed by Democrat-turned-independent Angela Cockerham". www.supertalk.fm. October 27, 2023. Retrieved October 27, 2023.
  45. 1 2 3 4 5 "Governor Tate Reeves makes campaign stop in Pass Christian". www.wxxv25.com. November 2, 2023. Retrieved November 5, 2023.
  46. ↑ "Gulf Coast Business Council Political Action Committee Endorses Governor Tate Reeves". www.wxxv25.com. October 11, 2023. Retrieved October 13, 2023.
  47. ↑ "Endorsements and claims in governor's race". www.desotocountynews.com. September 20, 2023. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  48. ↑ "2023 MARPAC Endorsed Candidates". msrealtors.org. Retrieved October 13, 2023.
  49. ↑ Lake, Richard (September 13, 2023). "Reeves draws business endorsement as Presley campaigns on coast". WJTV 12 News. Retrieved September 16, 2023.
  50. ↑ NRA-PVF. "NRA-PVF Grades Mississippi". NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on September 11, 2023. Retrieved September 11, 2023.
  51. ↑ Owens, Mary (June 6, 2023). "SBA Pro-Life America's Candidate Fund Endorses Pro-Life Champion Gov. Tate Reeves for Re-election". SBA Pro-Life America. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  52. 1 2 Bakken, Bob (May 9, 2023). "Presley endorsed by the Mississippi State Council Of Machinists". DeSoto County News. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
  53. 1 2 3 Vance, Taylor (September 20, 2023). "Former Republican congressman endorses Democrat Brandon Presley for governor". Mississippi Today . Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  54. ↑ Ganucheau, Adam (January 12, 2023). "Rep. Bennie Thompson endorses Brandon Presley in governor's race". Mississippi Today . Retrieved January 13, 2023.
  55. 1 2 3 Latino, Russ (June 12, 2023). "National Democrats Line Up to Support Presley's Bid for Governor". Magnolia Tribune . Retrieved June 28, 2023.
  56. 1 2 3 4 5 "Who are the donors behind Brandon Presley's big fundraising haul?". magnoliatribune.com. November 3, 2023. Retrieved November 6, 2023.
  57. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Bakken, Bob (August 29, 2023). "Presley launches 'Rural Mississippi Counts,' rural leaders backing his campaign". DeSoto County News. Retrieved September 16, 2023.
  58. ↑ "'It is so different this year': John Grisham gives Brandon Presley supporters even more hope for an upset". mississippitoday.org. November 2, 2023. Retrieved November 5, 2023.
  59. ↑ White, Khristopher (October 9, 2023). "Gwendolyn Gray endorses Brandon Presley for governor". WJTV12 News. Retrieved October 9, 2023.
  60. 1 2 "SPLC Action Fund endorses Brandon Presley in Mississippi's governor's race". Jackson Advocate News Service. May 22, 2023. Retrieved May 26, 2023.
  61. ↑ Bakken, Bob (October 12, 2023). "Presley earns the endorsement of the Central South Carpenters". Desoto County News. Retrieved October 12, 2023.
  62. 1 2 "Mississippi labor unions rally for Brandon Presley ahead of governor's race". October 28, 2023.
  63. ↑ "State's teachers union endorses Brandon Presley in governor's race". Mississippi Today . June 26, 2023. Retrieved June 26, 2023.
  64. ↑ Imes, Peter; Smith, Slim; Plair, Zack (May 13, 2023). "Our View: Presley is the clear choice for governor". The Commercial Dispatch . Retrieved May 26, 2023.
  65. ↑ Jira, Violet (October 26, 2023). "From the editor's desk: Why The Daily Mississippian is making a political endorsement". The Daily Mississippian. Archived from the original on October 26, 2023. Retrieved October 26, 2023.
  66. ↑ "Reeves Is OK, Presley Is Better". www.gwcommonwealth.com. November 4, 2023. Retrieved November 5, 2023.
  67. ↑ "NEMiss.News endorses Brandon Presley: The only proven public servant running for Governor". NEMiss News. September 15, 2023. Retrieved September 16, 2023.
  68. ↑ "For pro-life Mississippians, there's only one choice in November - Democrats For Life of America". www.democratsforlife.org. Archived from the original on October 26, 2023. Retrieved October 26, 2023.
  69. ↑ Real Clear Politics
  70. ↑ Public Policy Polling (D)
  71. ↑ Magnolia Tribune/Mason-Dixon
  72. ↑ Mississippi Today/Siena College
  73. ↑ Impact Research (D)
  74. ↑ OnMessage Inc. (R)
  75. 1 2 Impact Research (D)
  76. 1 2 Mississippi Today/Siena College
  77. ↑ Magnolia Tribune/Mason-Dixon
  78. ↑ Mississippi Today/Tulchin Research
  79. 1 2 Mississippi Today/Siena College
  80. ↑ "2023 Statewide Recapitulation Sheet" (PDF). Mississippi Secretary of State. Retrieved November 22, 2023.
  81. ↑ https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::2a63d0b3-58db-4e59-9b3b-436b221e078a

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