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Reeves: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Presley: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Mississippi |
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The 2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election was held on November 7, 2023, to elect the governor of Mississippi. Incumbent Republican governor Tate Reeves won re-election to a second term, defeating Democratic nominee, Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley. [1] Primary elections were held on August 8. [2] Reeves won the Republican nomination, while Presley won the Democratic nomination unopposed.
The race was considered to be competitive with Reeves being slightly favored. Reeves won re-election, but this was the best performance for a Democrat, the worst for a Republican, and the closest Mississippi gubernatorial election since 1999. It was also the closest ever gubernatorial election in the state won by a Republican, [3] and the closest gubernatorial election in the 2023 cycle.
This was the first Mississippi gubernatorial election since a 2020 referendum altered the election process. Previously, under a provision crafted as part of the 1890 Constitution of Mississippi, a candidate needed a majority of voters across the state and a majority of voters in a majority of state House of Representatives districts; if no candidates achieved such a result, the state House of Representatives would choose between the top two finishers, something that only happened in 1999.
This structure was referred to as Mississippi’s version of the electoral college; it was originally crafted, in the words of the Mississippi Historical Society, as part of "the legal basis and bulwark of the design of white supremacy". In the 21st century, because the state House districts favor Republican candidates, the provision was seen as helping Republican gubernatorial candidates as well. [4] Under the new law, any candidate who receives a majority of statewide votes will be elected; if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, a statewide runoff election between the top two candidates will be held. [5]
A socially conservative Southern state, Mississippi is considered safely Republican at the federal and state levels, with both of its U.S. senators, all but one of its U.S. representatives and all statewide executive officers currently belonging to the Republican Party. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump comfortably carried Mississippi by 17 percentage points. Incumbent governor Tate Reeves was first elected in 2019, narrowly defeating then-attorney general Jim Hood, who was the only Democrat elected to hold statewide office in Mississippi at the time.
Most analysts considered Reeves to be a favorite to win reelection, given the state's partisan lean and incumbency advantage. Nonetheless, the race was considered to be unusually competitive throughout the Fall as polling showed the race within the margin of error. Weaknesses for Reeves included his narrow victory four years prior, the heavy criticism he has faced for his handling of the Jackson water crisis, and for his ties to a welfare corruption scandal, both of which led him to have the lowest approval ratings of any Republican governor in the country. The Democratic nominee, Brandon Presley, was considered to be a strong general election candidate; he represented the Northern district on the Mississippi Public Service Commission since 2008, despite that district having a strong Republican bent, and held relatively moderate views on social issues, thus being closer to fitting the state. [6] [7]
Mississippi has the highest rate of disenfranchisement in the United States and around 16% of the African American voting age population is disenfranchised. [8]
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | David Hardigree | Tate Reeves | John Witcher | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mississippi Today/Siena College | Jun 4–7, 2023 | 646 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 0% | 59% | 0% | 8% [lower-alpha 2] | 33% |
American Strategies [upper-alpha 1] | May 22–24, 2023 | 646 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 2% | 70% | 4% | - | 24% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Tate Reeves | Bill Waller Jr. | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mississippi Today/Siena College | January 3–8, 2023 | 821 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 52% | 29% | 19% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Tate Reeves (incumbent) | 281,213 | 74.7 | |
Republican | John Witcher | 66,698 | 17.7 | |
Republican | David Grady Hardigree | 28,561 | 7.6 | |
Total votes | 376,472 | 100.0 |
Campaign finance reports as of June 9, 2023 [32] | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Brandon Presley | $1,760,057 | $773,134 | $1,714,455 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Brandon Presley | 196,307 | 100.0 | |
Total votes | 196,307 | 100.0 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [35] | Lean R | October 23, 2023 |
Inside Elections [36] | Lean R | September 1, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [37] | Likely R | October 16, 2023 |
Elections Daily [38] | Likely R | November 7, 2023 |
Dates | Location | Presley | Reeves | Link |
---|---|---|---|---|
November 1, 2023 | WAPT Studios Jackson | Participant | Participant | YouTube |
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Tate Reeves (R) | Brandon Presley (D) | Other [lower-alpha 4] | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics | August 20 – October 2, 2023 | October 5, 2022 | 51.5% | 42.0% | 6.5% | Reeves +9.5% |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Tate Reeves (R) | Brandon Presley (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 2] | October 19–20, 2023 | 601 (V) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | – | 10% |
Magnolia Tribune/Mason-Dixon | September 27 – October 2, 2023 | 625 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 43% | – | 6% |
Mississippi Today/Siena College | August 20–28, 2023 | 650 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 41% | 1% [lower-alpha 5] | 6% |
Impact Research (D) [upper-alpha 3] | August 6–9, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | – | 8% |
OnMessage Inc. (R) [upper-alpha 4] | July 7, 2023 | – | – | 49% | 32% | – | 19% |
Impact Research (D) [upper-alpha 3] | April 24–27, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
Mississippi Today/Siena College | April 16–20, 2023 | 783 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 38% | 7% [lower-alpha 6] | 6% |
Magnolia Tribune/Mason-Dixon | March 6–10, 2023 | 625 (RV) [lower-alpha 7] | ± 4.0% | 46% | 39% | – | 15% |
Mississippi Today/Tulchin Research [upper-alpha 5] | January 21–25, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 47% | – | 10% |
Mississippi Today/Siena College | January 3–8, 2023 | 821 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 43% | 39% | 2% [lower-alpha 8] | 14% |
Impact Research (D) [upper-alpha 3] | December 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 42% | – | 9% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Tate Reeves (R) | Generic Opponent | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mississippi Today/Siena College | April 16–20, 2023 | 783 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 36% | 60% | 4% |
Mississippi Today/Siena College | January 3–8, 2023 | 821 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 33% | 57% | 10% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Tate Reeves (incumbent) | 418,233 | 50.94 | –0.97 | |
Democratic | Brandon Presley | 391,614 | 47.70 | +0.87 | |
Independent | Gwendolyn Gray (withdrawn) | 11,153 | 1.36 | N/A | |
Total votes | 821,000 | 100.00 | |||
Republican hold | |||||
Paul Michael Parker is an American businessman and politician from the U.S. state of Mississippi. From 1989 to 1999, he served five terms in Congress as a member of the Democratic Party and, later, the Republican Party.
A general election was held in Mississippi on November 4, 2003, to elect to 4 year terms all members of the state legislature, the offices of Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, State Treasurer, State Auditor, Secretary of State, Commissioner of Agriculture and Commerce, and Commissioner of Insurance, plus all three members of the Transportation Commission and all three members of the Public Service Commission.
Jonathan Tate Reeves is an American politician serving since 2020 as the 65th governor of Mississippi. A member of the Republican Party, Reeves served as the 32nd lieutenant governor of Mississippi from 2012 to 2020 and as the 53rd Mississippi State Treasurer from 2004 to 2012.
The Government of Mississippi is the government of the U.S. state of Mississippi. Power in Mississippi's government is distributed by the state's Constitution between the executive and legislative branches. The state's current governor is Tate Reeves. The Mississippi Legislature consists of the House of Representatives and Senate. Mississippi is one of only five states that elects its state officials in odd numbered years. Mississippi holds elections for these offices every four years in the years preceding Presidential election years. Thus, the last year when Mississippi elected a Governor was 2019, and the next gubernatorial election will occur in 2023.
Brandon Everitt Presley is an American politician who served as a member of the Mississippi Public Service Commission from the Northern District from 2008 to 2024 and mayor of Nettleton, Mississippi, from 2001 to 2007. He is a member of the Democratic Party.
A general election was held in the U.S. state of Mississippi on November 3, 2015. All of Mississippi's executive officers were up for election. Primary elections were held on August 4, 2015, with primary runoffs to be held on August 25, 2015 if no candidate received a majority in the primary. The filing deadline for primary ballot access was February 27.
United States gubernatorial elections were held on November 5, 2019, in Kentucky and Mississippi, and on October 12, 2019, with a runoff on November 16, in Louisiana. These elections formed part of the 2019 United States elections. The last regular gubernatorial elections for all three states were in 2015. The Democrats had to defend an incumbent in Louisiana, while the Republicans had to defend an incumbent in Kentucky plus an open seat in Mississippi. Though all three seats up were in typically Republican states, the election cycle became unexpectedly competitive: Kentucky and Louisiana were seen as highly contested races; and Mississippi's race ultimately became closer than usual, despite being seen as favorable for the Republicans.
The 2019 Mississippi gubernatorial election took place on November 5, 2019, to choose the next Governor of Mississippi. Incumbent Governor Phil Bryant was ineligible to run for a third term due to term limits. The Democratic Party nominated incumbent Attorney General Jim Hood, the only Democrat holding statewide office in Mississippi; the Republican Party nominated incumbent Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves. In the general election, Reeves defeated Hood by a margin of 5.08%, with Reeves significantly underperforming Trump who won the state by 17 points, 3 years prior.
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The 2023 Mississippi elections took place on November 7, 2023, with the primary on August 8 and any required runoffs on August 29. All executive offices in the state up for election, as well as all 52 seats of the Mississippi State Senate, all 122 seats in the Mississippi House of Representatives, and many local offices. The qualifying deadline for all 2023 Mississippi races was February 1, 2023.
The 2023 Mississippi lieutenant gubernatorial election took place on November 7, 2023, to elect the lieutenant governor of Mississippi. Incumbent Republican Lieutenant Governor Delbert Hosemann won re-election to a second term in office, significantly outperforming Republican Governor Tate Reeves in the concurrent governor election.
Shad White isn't planning a run for governor, but he will be running for reelection as state auditor.
Young did tease his belief that Democrats will field a strong candidate to challenge Reeves for governor, an office that Young has said he is not seeking.