2023 United States gubernatorial elections

Last updated

2023 United States gubernatorial elections
Flag of the United States.svg
  2022 November 7, 2023
October 14 (Louisiana)
2024  

3 governorships
 Majority partyMinority party
 
Party Republican Democratic
Seats before2624
Seats after2723
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 1Decrease2.svg 1
Popular vote1,741,8551,389,283
Percentage54.34%43.34%
Seats up12
Races won21

2023 United States gubernatorial elections results map.svg
     Republican gain     Democratic hold
     Republican hold

United States gubernatorial elections were held on November 7, 2023, in the states of Kentucky and Mississippi, with an election having occurred in Louisiana on October 14. These elections form part of the 2023 United States elections. The last regular gubernatorial elections for all three states were in 2019.

Contents

In Louisiana, term-limited incumbent John Bel Edwards was succeeded by Jeff Landry, flipping the seat from Democratic to Republican control. In Kentucky, Democrat Andy Beshear won re-election to a second term. In Mississippi, Republican Tate Reeves won re-election to a second term.

Partisan composition

Going into the election, there were 26 Republican governors and 24 Democratic governors in the United States. This class of governors was made up of 1 Republican and 2 Democrats. Democrats were defending two governorships in states Donald Trump won in 2020 (Kentucky and Louisiana). [1] [2]

Election predictions

Several sites and individuals published predictions of competitive seats. These predictions looked at factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan leanings of the state (reflected in part by the state's Cook Partisan Voting Index rating). The predictions assigned ratings to each seat, with the rating indicating a party's predicted advantage in winning that seat.

Most election predictors use:

State PVI IncumbentLast
race
Cook
October 23,
2023
[3]
IE
September 1,
2023
[4]
Sabato
October 16,
2023
[5]
ED
November 7,
2023
[6]
Result
Kentucky R+16 Andy Beshear 49.2% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Lean DBeshear
52.5% D
Louisiana R+12 John Bel Edwards
(term-limited)
51.3% D Lean R (flip)Likely R (flip)Likely R (flip)Safe R (flip) Landry
51.6% R (flip)
Mississippi R+11 Tate Reeves 51.9% R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely RReeves
50.9% R

Race summary

StateIncumbentPartyFirst electedResultGeneral election
Kentucky Andy Beshear Democratic 2019 Incumbent re-elected.
Louisiana John Bel Edwards Democratic 2015 Incumbent term-limited.
Republican gain.
Others
  • Hunter Lundy (Independent) 4.9%
  • Danny Cole (Democratic) 2.6%
  • Sharon Hewitt (Republican) 1.7%
  • Benjamin Barnes (Independent) 0.5%
  • Patrick "Dat" Barthel (Republican) 0.4%
  • Richard Nelson (Republican) 0.3%
  • Jeffrey Istre (Independent) 0.3%
  • Xavier Ellis (Republican) 0.2%
  • Keitron Gagnon (Independent) 0.1%
  • Xan John (Republican) 0.1%
  • Frank Scurlock (Independent) 0.1%
Mississippi Tate Reeves Republican 2019 Incumbent re-elected.

Closest states

States where the margin of victory was between 1% and 5%:

  1. Mississippi, 3.24%

States where the margin of victory was between 5% and 10%:

  1. Kentucky, 5.07%

Red denotes states won by Republicans. Blue denotes states won by Democrats.

Kentucky

Kentucky gubernatorial election
Flag of Kentucky.svg
  2019
2027  
Turnout38.0% Decrease2.svg
  Governor Beshear 2023 (cropped).jpg Attorney General Daniel Cameron - Official Portrait (closer crop).jpg
Nominee Andy Beshear Daniel Cameron
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Jacqueline Coleman Robby Mills
Popular vote694,482627,457
Percentage52.53%47.46%

2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
Beshear:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Cameron:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%

Governor before election

Andy Beshear
Democratic

Elected Governor

Andy Beshear
Democratic

Governor Andy Beshear was elected in 2019 with 49.2% of the vote and ran for re-election to a second term. [7] He won the Democratic nomination with little opposition & won the general election.

Attorney general Daniel Cameron, former US Ambassador to the UN Kelly Craft, state auditor Mike Harmon, and agriculture commissioner Ryan Quarles all ran for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. [7] Cameron was supported by former president Donald Trump, and led every poll leading to the primary, with Craft and Quarles trailing behind him. [8] Cameron won the Republican nomination, becoming the first African American major party gubernatorial nominee in Kentucky's history. [9]

Democratic primary results [10]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Andy Beshear (incumbent) 176,589 91.3
Democratic Geoff Young 9,8655.1
Democratic Peppy Martin 6,9133.6
Total votes193,367 100.0
Republican primary results [10]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Daniel Cameron 144,576 47.7
Republican Ryan Quarles 65,71821.7
Republican Kelly Craft 52,17017.2
Republican Eric Deters17,4645.8
Republican Mike Harmon 7,7972.6
Republican Alan Keck7,3172.4
Republican David Cooper2,2820.8
Republican Jacob Clark1,9000.6
Republican Robbie Smith1,3880.5
Republican Bob DeVore9310.3
Republican Johnny Rice7260.2
Republican Dennis Ormerod6960.2
Total votes302,965 100.0
2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic
694,482 52.53% +3.33%
Republican 627,45747.46%−1.37%
Write-in 820.01%N/A
Total votes1,322,021 100.00%
Democratic hold

Louisiana

2023 Louisiana gubernatorial election
Flag of Louisiana.svg
  2019 October 14, 2023 2027  
Turnout36.3% Decrease2.svg
  Jeff Landry and Mike Johnson, March 2023 (cropped).jpg Shawn Wilson.jpg
Candidate Jeff Landry Shawn Wilson
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote547,827275,525
Percentage51.6%25.9%

  John Schroder.jpg
CandidateStephen Waguespack John Schroder
Party Republican Republican
Popular vote62,28756,654
Percentage5.9%5.3%

2023 Louisiana gubernatorial election results map by parish.svg
Landry:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Wilson:     40–50%     70–80%

Governor before election

John Bel Edwards
Democratic

Elected Governor

Jeff Landry
Republican

Governor John Bel Edwards was re-elected to a second term in 2019 with 51.3% of the vote. He was term-limited by the Louisiana Constitution in 2023, and could not seek reelection for a third consecutive term.

Louisiana utilizes a jungle primary system. Republican Attorney General Jeff Landry was considered the frontrunner. Other candidates included state senator Sharon Hewitt, and Treasurer John Schroder. Democratic Secretary of Transportation Shawn Wilson also ran to succeed Edwards. [11] [12]

Landry won with over 51% of the vote in the primary, becoming the first person to win a Louisiana gubernatorial election without a runoff since Bobby Jindal in 2011. Landry easily prevailed over several Republican opponents and the leading Democratic candidate. [13]

2023 Louisiana gubernatorial election [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jeff Landry 547,827 51.56%
Democratic Shawn Wilson 275,52525.93%
Republican Stephen Waguespack62,2875.86%
Republican John Schroder 56,6545.33%
Independent Hunter Lundy52,1654.91%
Democratic Danny Cole27,6622.60%
Republican Sharon Hewitt 18,4681.74%
Independent Benjamin Barnes5,1900.49%
Republican Dat Barthel4,4260.42%
Republican Richard Nelson (withdrawn)3,6050.34%
Independent Jeffery Istre3,4000.32%
Republican Xavier Ellis1,7340.16%
Independent Keitron Gagnon1,2600.12%
Republican Xan John1,1640.11%
Independent Frank Scurlock1,1310.11%
Total votes1,062,498 100.00%
Republican gain from Democratic

Mississippi

Mississippi gubernatorial election
Flag of Mississippi.svg
  2019
2027  
Turnout42.6%
  Gov. Tate Reeves Signs House Bill 1486 (cropped).jpg Brandon Presley, MS Public Service Commissioner.jpg
Nominee Tate Reeves Brandon Presley
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote418,233391,614
Percentage50.9%47.7%

2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
Reeves:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Presley:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%

Governor before election

Tate Reeves
Republican

Elected Governor

Tate Reeves
Republican

Governor Tate Reeves was elected in 2019 with 51.9% of the vote and ran for re-election to a second term. [15]

Democrat Brandon Presley, Mississippi Public Service Commissioner for the Northern District, was the Democratic nominee to challenge Reeves. [16]

Reeves won re-election.

Republican primary results [17]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Tate Reeves (incumbent) 281,213 74.7
Republican John Witcher66,69817.7
Republican David Grady Hardigree28,5617.6
Total votes376,472 100.0
Democratic primary results [18]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Brandon Presley 196,307 100.0
Total votes196,307 100.0
2023 Mississippi gubernatorial election [19] [20]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Tate Reeves (incumbent) 418,233 50.94 –0.97
Democratic Brandon Presley 391,61447.70+0.87
Independent Gwendolyn Gray (withdrawn)11,1531.36N/A
Total votes821,000 100.00
Republican hold

See also

References

  1. Vakil, Caroline (January 2, 2023). "Here are the governors' races to watch in 2023". The Hill. Retrieved January 5, 2024.
  2. Jacobson, Louis (June 8, 2023). "Democrats Face Uphill Challenge in Three Off-Year Races for Governor". US News & World Report . Retrieved January 5, 2023.
  3. "2024 CPR Governor Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 23, 2023.
  4. "Gubernatorial Ratings". insideelections.com. Retrieved July 23, 2023.
  5. "2024 Governor – Sabato's Crystal Ball" . Retrieved July 23, 2023.
  6. Cunningham, Eric (November 7, 2023). "Final 2023 Gubernatorial Ratings: Kentucky Moves to Leans Democratic, Mississippi is Likely Republican". Elections Daily. Retrieved November 7, 2023.
  7. 1 2 "Election Candidate Filings - Governor". web.sos.ky.gov. Retrieved May 3, 2023.
  8. "Trump endorses Cameron's bid for governor in Kentucky". spectrumnews1.com. Retrieved April 6, 2023.
  9. "Daniel Cameron wins Republican primary for Kentucky governor". CBS News . May 16, 2023. Retrieved May 17, 2023.
  10. 1 2 "May 16, 2023 Official 2023 Primary Election Results" (PDF). Kentucky Secretary of State. Archived (PDF) from the original on July 30, 2023. Retrieved October 6, 2023.
  11. Karlin, Sam (January 9, 2023). "Billy Nungesser to announce he's not running for governor, will seek re-election". The Advocate. Retrieved January 11, 2023.
  12. Doyle, Matt (November 19, 2019). "2023 Governor's race could be packed with GOP heavy hitters". Louisiana Radio Network . Louisiana Farm Bureau Federation . Retrieved November 29, 2020.
  13. Montellaro, Zach (October 14, 2023). "Landry wins Louisiana governor's race, flipping state red". Politico . Retrieved October 14, 2023.
  14. "Official Results for Election Date: 10/14/2023 Governor".
  15. Reily, Ross (January 3, 2023). "Mississippi Republican Gov. Tate Reeves files for reelection bid". Clarion Ledger .
  16. Hernandez, Rachel (January 12, 2023). "Brandon Presley joins race for Mississippi governor". WKRG . Retrieved January 12, 2023.
  17. "2023 Republican primary results". Mississippi Secretary of State . Retrieved September 16, 2023.
  18. "2023 Democratic primary results". Mississippi Secretary of State . Retrieved September 16, 2023.
  19. "Mississippi Governor Election Results". The New York Times. November 7, 2023. Retrieved November 14, 2023.
  20. "Mississippi Governor". CNN . Retrieved November 20, 2023.