2016 United States Senate election in Louisiana

Last updated

2016 United States Senate election in Louisiana
Flag of Louisiana.svg
  2010 November 8, 2016 (first round)
December 10, 2016 (runoff)
2022  
Turnout67.8% Increase2.svg (first round) 29.0% Decrease2.svg (runoff)
  John Neely Kennedy official portrait (cropped).jpg Foster Campbell 1990.jpg Rep. Charles Boustany (cropped).jpg
Candidate John Kennedy Foster Campbell Charles Boustany
Party Republican Democratic Republican
First round482,591
24.96%
337,833
17.47%
298,008
15.41%
Runoff536,191
60.65%
347,816
39.35%
Eliminated

  CarolineFayard (1).jpg John flemming (cropped).jpg
CandidateCaroline Fayard John Fleming
Party Democratic Republican
First round240,917
12.46%
204,026
10.55%
RunoffEliminatedEliminated

2016 United States Senate election in Louisiana results map by parish.svg
Louisiana Senate Runoff Election Results 2016.svg
2016 Louisiana Senate by CD (Runoff).svg
2016 Louisiana Senate (Runoff).svg
Kennedy:     20–30%     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Campbell:     20–30%     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Boustany:     20—30%     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%
Fayard:     20—30%
Fleming:     30–40%     40–50%

U.S. senator before election

David Vitter
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

John Kennedy
Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Louisiana took place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Louisiana, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Under Louisiana's "jungle primary" system, all candidates appeared on the same ballot, regardless of party, and voters could vote for any candidate. Since no candidate received a majority of the vote during the primary election, a runoff election was held December 10 [1] between the top two candidates in the primary, Republican John Neely Kennedy and Democrat Foster Campbell, where Kennedy won with 60.65% of the vote, giving Senate Republicans 52 seats in the 115th Congress. Louisiana is the only state that has a jungle primary system (California and Washington have a similar "top two primary" system). Kennedy had previously unsuccessfully ran for this seat in 2004 as a Democrat and the state's other U.S. Senate seat in 2008 as a Republican.

Incumbent Republican Senator David Vitter unsuccessfully ran for Governor of Louisiana in 2015, [2] and in his concession speech he announced that he would not seek re-election to the Senate in 2016. [3]

In addition to Kennedy and Campbell, four other candidates — Republicans Charles Boustany, John Fleming, and David Duke, and Democrat Caroline Fayard — qualified to participate at a debate at Dillard University, a historically black college, on November 2, 2016 [4] [5] This election is the last United States Senate runoff election in Louisiana.

Candidates

Republican Party

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Democratic Party

Declared

Declined

Libertarian Party

Declared

Independents

Declared

Jungle primary

Debates

DatesLocationKennedyCampbellBoustanyFayardFlemingDukeLink
October 18, 2016 Ruston, Louisiana ParticipantParticipantParticipantParticipantParticipantNot invited Full debate - C-SPAN
November 2, 2016 New Orleans, Louisiana ParticipantParticipantParticipantParticipantParticipantParticipant Full debate - C-SPAN

Endorsements

Charles Boustany
Foster Campbell
Individuals
Organizations
David Duke
Individuals
Organizations
Caroline Fayard
Individuals
Organizations
John Fleming
Individuals
Organizations
John Neely Kennedy
Individuals
Organizations
Rob Maness
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Charles
Boustany (R)
Foster
Campbell (D)
David
Duke (R)
Caroline
Fayard (D)
John
Fleming (R)
John
Kennedy (R)
Rob
Maness (R)
OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016982± 4.6%14%13%3%21%12%21%6%4% [lower-alpha 1] 6%
SurveyMonkey October 31 – November 6, 2016840± 4.6%15%14%3%20%11%21%6%5% [lower-alpha 2] 5%
SurveyMonkey October 28 – November 3, 2016646± 4.6%15%14%3%19%11%21%5%4% [lower-alpha 3] 8%
SurveyMonkey October 27 – November 2, 2016546± 4.6%13%13%3%21%12%21%5%4% [lower-alpha 4] 8%
SurveyMonkey October 26 – November 1, 2016470± 4.6%13%13%2%21%12%23%4%3% [lower-alpha 5] 9%
Southern Media and Opinion Research October 19–21, 2016500± 4.4%14%16%12%9%22%27%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid October 15–21, 2016614± 3.0%12%17%4%12%10%18%4%7% [lower-alpha 6] 17%
University of New Orleans Archived October 29, 2016, at the Wayback Machine October 15–21, 2016603± 4.0%15%15%2%10%11%22%4%9% [lower-alpha 7] 12%
FOX 8/Mason-Dixon October 20, 2016625± 4.0%11%19%5%12%10%24%3%3% [lower-alpha 8] 13%
Market Research Insight October 17–19, 2016600± 4.0%16%14%12%7%17%34%
JMC Analytics (R) October 11–15, 2016800± 3.5%16%25%3%10%16%16%3%2%10%
JMC Analytics (R) September 22–24, 2016905± 3.3%15%15%3%12%14%11%4%1%25%
Market Research Insight September 17–19, 2016600± 4.0%12%10%11%10%18%39%
Southern Media and Opinion Research September 15–17, 2016500± 4.4%15%9%3%11%8%17%3%7% [lower-alpha 9] 26%
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research (D) August 29 – September 1, 2016605± 4.0%13%7%3%13%6%18%4%5% [lower-alpha 10] 31%
The Hayride/Remington Research August 29–30, 20161,017± 3.2%13%16%6%12%6%27%4%15%
GBA Strategies June 6–9, 2016500± 4.4%11%15%14%9%30%6%12% [lower-alpha 11] 2%
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research Archived August 12, 2016, at the Wayback Machine May 31 – June 2, 2016600± 4.0%11%14%9%7%24%3%33%
Southern Media and Opinion Research May 19–23, 2016500± 4.4%10%9%4%5%32%4%3% [lower-alpha 12] 32%
SurveyUSA March 4–8, 2016600± 4.1%10%12%10%7%21%6%12% [lower-alpha 13] 15%
Southern Media and Opinion Research February 2–4, 2016500± 4.4%10%7%4%6%22%7%30%
SurveyUSA December 4–7, 2015600± 4.1%10%23%6%21%9%19%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Scott
Angelle (R)
Charles
Boustany (R)
John
Fleming (R)
John
Kennedy (R)
Mitch
Landrieu (D)
Undecided
MRI December 2–4, 2015600± 4.1%24%15%5%15%30%11%
NSO Research (R-Kennedy) January 10–13, 2014600± 4%13%7%18%39%23%

Results

United States Senate election in Louisiana, 2016 [130]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican John Kennedy 482,591 24.96
Democratic Foster Campbell 337,833 17.47
Republican Charles Boustany 298,00815.41
Democratic Caroline Fayard240,91712.46
Republican John Fleming 204,02610.55
Republican Rob Maness90,8564.7
Republican David Duke 58,6063.03
Democratic Derrick Edwards51,7742.68
Democratic Gary Landrieu45,5872.36
Republican Donald "Crawdaddy" Crawford25,5231.32
Republican Joseph Cao 21,0191.09
Independent Beryl Billiot19,3521
Libertarian Thomas Clements11,3700.59
Independent Troy Hebert 9,5030.49
Democratic Josh Pellerin7,3950.38
Democratic Peter Williams6,8550.35
Democratic Vinny Mendoza4,9270.25
Independent Kaitlin Marone4,1080.21
Libertarian Le Roy Gillam4,0670.21
Republican Charles Eugene Marsala3,6840.19
Republican Abhay Patel1,5760.08
Independent Arden Wells1,4830.08
Independent Bob Lang1,4240.07
Independent Gregory Taylor1,1510.06
Total votes1,933,635 100

Maps

Runoff

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Kennedy (R)
Foster
Campbell (D)
Undecided
University of New Orleans Archived December 20, 2016, at the Wayback Machine December 6, 2016776 ± 4.9%62%33%5%
Trafalgar Group (R) December 5–6, 20162,500 ± 2.0%56%40%4%
Emerson College November 29–30, 2016400 ± 4.9%51%33%16%
Southern Media and Opinion Research November 28–30, 2016500 ± 4.4%52%38%10%
Tulane University November 8–18, 2016820 ± 3.0%60%40%0%
Trafalgar Group (R) November 14–17, 20162,200 ± 2.1%58%35%6%
The Hayride/Remington Research August 29–30, 20161,017 ± 3.2%51%27%22%
SurveyUSA March 4–8, 2016600 ± 4.1%54%34%12%
Hypothetical polling
Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Neely
Kennedy (R)
Caroline
Fayard (D)
Undecided
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research August 29–September 1, 2016605± 4.0%49%38%13%
SurveyUSA March 4–8, 2016600 ± 4.1%54%34%12%
Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
David
Duke (R)
Caroline
Fayard (D)
Undecided
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research August 29–September 1, 2016605± 4.0%15%64%21%
Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Charles
Boustany (R)
John
Neely
Kennedy (R)
Undecided
SurveyUSA March 4–8, 2016600 ± 4.1%22%50%27%
Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Charles
Boustany (R)
Caroline
Fayard (D)
Undecided
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research August 29–September 1, 2016605± 4.0%40%43%17%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [131] Safe RNovember 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [132] Likely RNovember 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [133] Safe RNovember 3, 2016
Daily Kos [134] Safe RNovember 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics [135] Likely RNovember 7, 2016

Results

United States Senate election runoff in Louisiana, 2016 [136]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican John Neely Kennedy 536,191 60.65% +4.09%
Democratic Foster Campbell347,81639.35%+1.68%
Total votes884,007 100% N/A
Republican hold

Parishes that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Parishes that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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References

Additional candidates
  1. Joshua Pellerin (D) with 4%
  2. Joshua Pellerin (D) with 5%
  3. Joshua Pellerin (D) with 4%
  4. Joshua Pellerin (D) with 4%
  5. Joshua Pellerin (D) with 3%
  6. "Others" with 5% and Joseph Cao (R) with 2%
  7. "Others" with 7%, Joseph Cao (R) with 1% and Abhay Patel (R) with 1%
  8. "Others" with 2%, Derrick Edwards (D) with 1%, Gary Landrieu (D), Vinny Mendoza (D), Joshua Pellerin (D), and Peter Williams (D) all with 0%
  9. "Others", Joseph Cao (R), and Peter Williams (D) each with 2% and Troy Hebert (I) with 1%
  10. Troy Hebert (I) with 3%, Peter Williams (D) and "Others" each with 1%
  11. Troy Hebert (I) with 7%, Joseph Cao (R) with 3%, and Peter Williams (D) 2%
  12. Troy Hebert (I) with 2% and Eric Skrmetta (R) with 1%
  13. Troy Hebert (I) with 5%, Joseph Cao (R) with 4%, and Peter Williams (D) with 3%
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