2016 United States Senate election in Alabama

Last updated

2016 United States Senate election in Alabama
Flag of Alabama.svg
  2010 November 8, 2016 2022  
  Richard Shelby, official portrait, 112th Congress (cropped 2).jpg No image.svg
Nominee Richard Shelby Ron Crumpton
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote1,335,104748,709
Percentage63.96%35.87%

2016 United States Senate election in Alabama results map by county.svg
2016 US Senate election in Alabama by congressional district.svg
2016 AL Senate.svg
Shelby:      50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Crumpton:      50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:      40–50%

U.S. senator before election

Richard Shelby
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Richard Shelby
Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Alabama was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alabama, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent Republican Senator Richard Shelby won re-election to a sixth term in office. The primaries were held on March 1. Ron Crumpton, a marijuana legalization activist, was the Democratic nominee. [1] Shelby won re-election with 63.96% of the vote. Despite an overwhelming victory statewide, this marks Shelby's first race as either a Republican or Democrat in which he has failed to carry Jefferson County (home of Birmingham, the state's largest city). In Jefferson, Crumpton took 51.99% (156,574 votes) to Senator Shelby's 47.86% (144,136 votes), [2] this shift is due in part to increase of Democratic support in urban core areas across the nation.

Background

Shelby was first elected to the Senate in 1986 as a Democrat and was easily re-elected in 1992 as such. He switched his party affiliation to Republican on November 9, 1994, one day after the Republicans won control of both houses in the midterm elections. He won his first full term as a Republican in 1998 by a large margin and faced no significant opposition in 2004 or 2010.

Republican primary

Following the divisive Republican primary in Mississippi ahead of the 2014 election in which Senator Thad Cochran was almost defeated, it had been speculated that Shelby could also face a Tea Party primary challenger, due to his lengthy tenure and support for federal largesse. However, that did not happen, in part due to his large campaign war chest, which stood at $19.4 million as of September 2015. [1] If Shelby had decided to retire, numerous high-profile Alabama Republicans were speculated to run, including U.S. Representatives Robert Aderholt, Mo Brooks, Bradley Byrne, Gary Palmer, Martha Roby, and Mike Rogers, State Treasurer Young Boozer, State Speaker Mike Hubbard, Lieutenant Governor Kay Ivey, State Senate President Pro Tempore Del Marsh, Secretary of State John Merrill, U.S. Appeals Court Judge William H. Pryor Jr., former governor Bob Riley, and Attorney General Luther Strange. [3] [4] [5] Shelby announced in January 2015 that he would run for re-election. [6]

Candidates

Declared

Endorsements

Jonathan McConnell
Individuals
  • John Rice, former State Senator, candidate for AL-03 in 1989 and candidate for Public Service Commission in 2006 [11]
Organizations
Richard Shelby
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Marcus
Bowman
John
Martin
Shadrack
McGill
Jonathan
McConnell
Richard
Shelby
Undecided
Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell) January 29–30, 20161,299± 2.7%1%1%2%25%55%16%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Shelby) January 25–26, 2016600± 4.0%1%1%1%9%75%13%
Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell) December 20151%2%3%15%64%21%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Shelby) November 20151%2%1%5%71%20%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Shelby
Someone
Else
Undecided
Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell) January 29–30, 20161,299±2.7%55%29%16%
Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell) December 2015 ?±?%64%15%21%
Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell) October 2015 ?±?%53%22%26%

Primary results

Results by county
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Shelby
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
80-90% 2016 United States Senate Republican primary election in Alabama results map by county.svg
Results by county
  Shelby
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Republican primary results [15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Richard Shelby (incumbent) 505,586 64.91%
Republican Jonathan McConnell214,77027.58%
Republican John Martin23,5583.02%
Republican Marcus Bowman19,7072.53%
Republican Shadrack McGill15,2301.96%
Total votes778,851 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Ron Crumpton, marijuana legalization activist and nominee for the State Senate in 2014 [9] [16]
  • Charles Nana, process engineer [9] [17]

Failed to qualify

Declined

Primary results

County results Alabama Senate D Primary 2016.svg
County results
Democratic primary results [15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Ron Crumpton 145,681 55.97%
Democratic Charles Nana114,61744.03%
Total votes260,298 100.00%

General election

Candidates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [21] Safe RNovember 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [22] Safe RNovember 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [23] Safe RNovember 3, 2016
Daily Kos [24] Safe RNovember 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics [25] Safe RNovember 7, 2016

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Shelby (R)
Ron
Crumpton (D)
Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 20161,131± 4.6%57%38%5%
SurveyMonkey October 31 – November 6, 2016971± 4.6%58%37%5%
SurveyMonkey October 28 – November 3, 2016722± 4.6%57%38%5%
SurveyMonkey October 27 – November 2, 2016621± 4.6%58%37%5%
SurveyMonkey October 26 – November 1, 2016503± 4.6%56%40%4%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016485± 4.6%60%36%4%
Google Consumer Surveys October 18–20, 2016474± 4.2%71%26%3%

Results

2016 United States Senate election in Alabama [26]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Richard Shelby (incumbent) 1,335,104 63.96% -1.22%
Democratic Ron Crumpton748,70935.87%+1.16%
Write-in 3,6310.17%+0.06%
Total votes2,087,444 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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References

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  11. Moseley, Brandon (December 9, 2015). "John Rice Endorses McConnell". Alabama Political Reporter. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
  12. Koplowitz, Howard (January 7, 2016). "Citizens United PAC endorses Jonathan McConnell for Senate". AL.com. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
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  20. Moseley, Brandon (March 21, 2016). "Nana Says the Almighty Instructed Him to Run for Senate as a Write In Candidate". Alabama Political Reporter. Retrieved March 21, 2016.
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Official campaign websites