2016 United States Senate election in Alabama

See also: 2016 United States Senate elections

2016 United States Senate election in Alabama

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Nominee Richard Shelby Ron Crumpton Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 1,335,104 748,709 Percentage 63.96% 35.87%

County results Congressional district results Precinct results Shelby:      50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90% Crumpton:      50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90% Tie:      40–50%

U.S. senator before election Richard Shelby Republican Elected U.S. Senator Richard Shelby Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Alabama was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alabama, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Senator Richard Shelby won re-election to a sixth term in office. The primaries were held on March 1. Ron Crumpton, a marijuana legalization activist, was the Democratic nominee. ^[1] Shelby won re-election with 63.96% of the vote. Despite an overwhelming victory statewide, this marked Shelby's first and only race as either a Republican or Democrat in which he failed to carry Jefferson County, home of Birmingham, the state's largest city. In Jefferson, Crumpton took 51.99% (156,574 votes) to Shelby's 47.86% (144,136 votes); ^[2] this shift was due in part to increased Democratic support in core urban areas across the nation.

Background

Shelby was first elected to the Senate in 1986 as a Democrat and was easily re-elected in 1992 as such. He switched his party affiliation to Republican on November 9, 1994, one day after the Republicans won control of both houses in the midterm elections. He won his first full term as a Republican in 1998 by a large margin and faced no significant opposition in 2004 or 2010.

Republican primary

Following the divisive Republican primary in Mississippi ahead of the 2014 election in which Senator Thad Cochran was almost defeated, it had been speculated that Shelby could also face a Tea Party primary challenger, due to his lengthy tenure and support for federal largesse. However, that did not happen, in part due to his large campaign war chest, which stood at $19.4 million as of September 2015. ^[1] If Shelby had decided to retire, numerous high-profile Alabama Republicans were speculated to run, including U.S. Representatives Robert Aderholt, Mo Brooks, Bradley Byrne, Gary Palmer, Martha Roby, and Mike Rogers, State Treasurer Young Boozer, State Speaker Mike Hubbard, Lieutenant Governor Kay Ivey, State Senate President Pro Tempore Del Marsh, Secretary of State John Merrill, U.S. Appeals Court Judge William H. Pryor Jr., former governor Bob Riley, and Attorney General Luther Strange. ^{[3] [4] [5]} Shelby announced in January 2015 that he would run for re-election. ^[6]

Candidates

Declared

• Richard Shelby, incumbent U.S. Senator since 1987 ^[6]
• Marcus Bowman, Uber driver ^[7]
• John Martin, pilot and candidate for AL-02 in 2008 ^[7]
• Jonathan McConnell, businessman ^{[7] [8] [9]}
• Shadrack McGill, former state senator and candidate for Jackson County Revenue Commissioner in 2014 ^{[7] [10]}

Endorsements

Jonathan McConnell

Individuals

• John Rice, former State Senator, candidate for AL-03 in 1989 and candidate for Public Service Commission in 2006 ^[11]

Organizations

• Citizens United ^[12]

Richard Shelby

U.S. Senators

• Jeff Sessions, U.S. Senator ^[13]

U.S. Representatives

• Mo Brooks, U.S. Representative ^[13]

Organizations

• Alabama Farmers Federation ^[13]
• Alabama Patriots ^[13]
• Business Council of Alabama ^[14]
• NRA Political Victory Fund ^[13]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Marcus Bowman	John Martin	Shadrack McGill	Jonathan McConnell	Richard Shelby	Undecided
Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell) [15]	January 29–30, 2016	1,299	± 2.7%	1%	1%	2%	25%	55%	16%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Shelby) [16]	January 25–26, 2016	600	± 4.0%	1%	1%	1%	9%	75%	13%
Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell) [15]	December 2015	–	–	1%	2%	3%	15%	64%	21%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Shelby) [16]	November 2015	–	–	1%	2%	1%	5%	71%	20%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Richard Shelby	Someone Else	Undecided
Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell) [15]	January 29–30, 2016	1,299	±2.7%	55%	29%	16%
Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell) [15]	December 2015	?	±?%	64%	15%	21%
Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell) [15]	October 2015	?	±?%	53%	22%	26%

Primary results

Results by county

  Shelby

•   50–60%
•   60–70%
•   70–80%
•   80–90%

Republican primary results ^[17]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Richard Shelby (incumbent)	505,586	64.91%
	Republican	Jonathan McConnell	214,770	27.58%
	Republican	John Martin	23,558	3.02%
	Republican	Marcus Bowman	19,707	2.53%
	Republican	Shadrack McGill	15,230	1.96%
Total votes			778,851	100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Ron Crumpton, marijuana legalization activist and nominee for the State Senate in 2014 ^{[9] [18]}
• Charles Nana, process engineer ^{[9] [19]}

Failed to qualify

• Reginald Hill, candidate for Huntsville School Board in 2012 and write-in candidate for AL-05 in 2014 ^[20]

Declined

• Stephen Black, non-profit executive ^[3]
• Bobby Bright, former U.S. Representative ^[3]
• Parker Griffith, former U.S. Representative, and nominee for Governor of Alabama in 2014 ^[3]
• Sue Bell Cobb, former chief justice of the Supreme Court of Alabama ^[3]
• Marsha Folsom, businesswoman, former First Lady of Alabama, and nominee for Alabama's 4th congressional district in 2000 ^[21]
• Walt Maddox, Mayor of Tuscaloosa ^[3]
• Terri Sewell, U.S. Representative (running for re-election) ^[3]

Primary results

County results

Democratic primary results ^[17]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Ron Crumpton	145,681	55.97%
	Democratic	Charles Nana	114,617	44.03%
Total votes			260,298	100.00%

General election

Candidates

• Richard Shelby (R), incumbent senator
• Ron Crumpton (D), marijuana legalization activist and nominee for the State Senate in 2014
• Charles Nana (D) (write-in), process engineer ^[22] (previously sought the Democratic nomination)

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [23]	Safe R	November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [24]	Safe R	November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [25]	Safe R	November 3, 2016
Daily Kos [26]	Safe R	November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics [27]	Safe R	November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Richard Shelby (R)	Ron Crumpton (D)	Undecided
SurveyMonkey [28]	November 1–7, 2016	1,131	± 4.6%	57%	38%	5%
SurveyMonkey [29]	October 31 – November 6, 2016	971	± 4.6%	58%	37%	5%
SurveyMonkey [30]	October 28 – November 3, 2016	722	± 4.6%	57%	38%	5%
SurveyMonkey [31]	October 27 – November 2, 2016	621	± 4.6%	58%	37%	5%
SurveyMonkey [32]	October 26 – November 1, 2016	503	± 4.6%	56%	40%	4%
SurveyMonkey [33]	October 25–31, 2016	485	± 4.6%	60%	36%	4%
Google Consumer Surveys [34]	October 18–20, 2016	474	± 4.2%	71%	26%	3%

Results

2016 United States Senate election in Alabama ^[35]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Richard Shelby (incumbent)	1,335,104	63.96%	−1.22%
	Democratic	Ron Crumpton	748,709	35.87%	+1.16%
	Write-in		3,631	0.17%	+0.06%
Total votes			2,087,444	100.00%	N/A
	Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Jefferson (largest municipality: Birmingham)

By congressional district

Shelby won 6 of 7 congressional districts. ^[36]

District	Shelby	Crumpton	Representative
1st	65%	34%	Bradley Byrne
2nd	66%	34%	Martha Roby
3rd	66%	34%	Mike Rogers
4th	79%	21%	Robert Aderholt
5th	67%	33%	Mo Brooks
6th	73%	27%	Gary Palmer
7th	31%	69%	Terri Sewell

References

1. Dean, Charles (June 30, 2014). "Could the Tea Party challenge Sen. Richard Shelby? Sure, but there are $17 million reasons not to". AL.com. Retrieved July 1, 2014.
2. "Alabama Election Results" (PDF). Alabama Secretary of State. June 5, 2020.
3. Livingston, Abby (February 6, 2013). "Farm Team: Long Line Forming for GOP Hopefuls Looking to Move Up in Alabama". Roll Call. Retrieved June 19, 2014.
4. Cheney, Kyle (December 29, 2014). "16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate". Politico . Retrieved December 29, 2014.
5. Jim Stinson (September 18, 2014). "Who is next? Five people who could be governor after the 2018 election". AL.com. Retrieved September 19, 2014.
6. Gore, Leada (January 29, 2015). "Sen. Richard Shelby is in for 2016 and that changes Alabama's political landscape". AL.com. Retrieved November 6, 2015.
7. Sims, Cliff (November 6, 2015). "Here's what you need to know about the four Republicans challenging Richard Shelby". Yellowhammer News. Retrieved November 8, 2015.
8. Pathé, Simone (November 6, 2015). "Alabama's Richard Shelby Gets a Primary Challenge". Roll Call . Archived from the original on November 9, 2015. Retrieved November 6, 2015.
9. Troyan, Mary (November 7, 2015). "Sen. Richard Shelby will face Republican challengers". Montgomery Advertiser . Retrieved November 6, 2015.
10. Koplowitz, Howard (November 6, 2015). "Shadrack McGill among GOP challengers to Shelby". AL.com. Retrieved November 8, 2015.
11. Moseley, Brandon (December 9, 2015). "John Rice Endorses McConnell". Alabama Political Reporter. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
12. Koplowitz, Howard (January 7, 2016). "Citizens United PAC endorses Jonathan McConnell for Senate". AL.com. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
13. "Richard Shelby Endorsements". Archived from the original on October 6, 2016. Retrieved December 28, 2015.
14. Moseley, Brandon (January 8, 2016). "BCA, Veterans Group Endorse Senator Richard Shelby for Re-Election". Alabama Political Reporter. Archived from the original on January 11, 2016. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
15. Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell)
16. McLaughlin & Associates (R-Shelby)
17. "2016 Primary Election Official Results, March 1, 2016". Alabama Secretary of State. Retrieved May 13, 2016.
18. Moseley, Brandon (April 15, 2015). "Crumpton Announces Bid to Unseat Shelby". Alabama Political Reporter. Archived from the original on April 15, 2015. Retrieved April 15, 2015.
19. Moseley, Brandon (November 6, 2015). "Shelby Faces Three Challengers". Alabama Political Reporter. Archived from the original on November 9, 2015. Retrieved November 6, 2015.
20. "Huntsville man kicks off campaign for U.S. Senate". WAFF . November 3, 2015. Retrieved November 6, 2015.
21. Charles J. Dean (June 9, 2014). "Who are some Democrats who might run for governor in 2018". AL.com. Retrieved November 13, 2014.
22. Moseley, Brandon (March 21, 2016). "Nana Says the Almighty Instructed Him to Run for Senate as a Write In Candidate". Alabama Political Reporter. Retrieved March 21, 2016.
23. "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
24. "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
25. "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
26. "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
27. "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
28. SurveyMonkey
29. SurveyMonkey
30. SurveyMonkey
31. SurveyMonkey
32. SurveyMonkey
33. SurveyMonkey
34. Google Consumer Surveys
35. "Canvass of Results for the General Election held on November 8, 2016" (PDF). Alabama Secretary of State. Retrieved December 1, 2016.
36. "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting.

External links

Official campaign websites

• Richard Shelby (R) for Senate
• Ron Crumpton (D) for Senate