2016 Alabama Republican presidential primary

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2016 Alabama Republican presidential primary
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50 pledged delegates to the
2016 Republican National Convention
  Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore 10 (cropped).jpg Ted Cruz by Gage Skidmore 10 (cropped).jpg
Candidate Donald Trump Ted Cruz
Home state New York Texas
Delegate count3613
Popular vote373,721181,479
Percentage43.42%21.09%
  Marco Rubio by Gage Skidmore 8 (cropped).jpg Ben Carson by Skidmore with lighting correction (cropped).jpg
Candidate Marco Rubio Ben Carson
Home state Florida Virginia
Delegate count10
Popular vote160,60688,094
Percentage18.66%10.24%
2016 AL GOP presidential primary.svg
2016 Alabama GOP Presidential primary by congressional district.svg
  Donald Trump
  30–40%
  40–50%
  50–60%

The 2016 Alabama Republican presidential primary took place on March 1, 2016. This was the fifth primary held in the 2016 Republican primary. Donald Trump won the primary handily. The election was also held on Super Tuesday. Trump eventually won the Republican primary. He was elected President of the United States on November 8, 2016, against Hillary Clinton.

Contents

Ahead of the primary, Alabama was considered one of Donald Trump's strongest states. [1] Trump enjoyed the endorsement of Senator Jeff Sessions, [2] who would later join his Department of Justice as Attorney General. Sessions was Trump's first endorsement in the U.S. Senate.

Candidates

Endorsements

Donald Trump
U.S. Senators

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll

aggregation

Dates

administered

Dates

updated

 Marco Rubio
Republican 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Ted Cruz
Republican 		Margin
RealClearPolitics [4] until March 1, 2016March 1, 201620.3%38.0%14.7%
FiveThirtyEight [5] until March 1, 2016March 1, 201620.4%43.4%17.2%
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Primary results [6] March 1, 2016 Donald Trump43.42% Ted Cruz21.09% Marco Rubio18.66% Ben Carson 10.24%, John Kasich 4.43%, Jeb Bush 0.46%, Mike Huckabee 0.30%, Rand Paul 0.22%, Chris Christie 0.10%, Rick Santorum 0.07%, Carly Fiorina 0.06%, Lindsey Graham 0.03%
SurveyMonkey [7]

Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 741

February 22–29, 2016Donald Trump
47%		Ted Cruz

18%

Marco Rubio

14%

Ben Carson 9%, John Kasich 3%, Undecided 9%
Monmouth University [8]

Margin of error: ± 4.6%

Sample size: 450

February 25–28, 2016Donald Trump
42%		Marco Rubio

19%

Ted Cruz

16%

Ben Carson 11%, John Kasich 5%, Undecided 7%
Opinion Savvy [9]

Margin of error: ± 4.6% Sample size: 460

February 25–26, 2016Donald Trump
35.8%		Marco Rubio

23.0%

Ted Cruz

16.2%

Ben Carson 10.5%, John Kasich 7.5%, Undecided 7.0%
AL.com [10]

Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 500

December 10–13, 2015Donald Trump
35%		Ted Cruz

15%

Marco Rubio

12%

Ben Carson 12%, Jeb Bush 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Chris Christie 3%, John Kasich 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Rand Paul <1%, Rick Santorum <1%, Lindsey Graham <1%
Gravis Marketing [11]

Margin of error: ± 2%

Sample size: 1616

September 3, 2015Donald Trump
38%		Ben Carson

16.7%

Jeb Bush

4.9%

Ted Cruz 4.1%, Mike Huckabee 2.7%, Marco Rubio 2.3%, Carly Fiorina 2.3%, Rand Paul 1.5%, John Kasich 1.3%, Scott Walker 1.1%, Chris Christie 0.9%, Rick Santorum 0.4%, Rick Perry 0.3%, Bobby Jindal 0.3%, Lindsey Graham 0.1%, unsure 23.2%
News-5/Strategy Research [12]

Margin of error: ± 2%

Sample size: 3500

August 11, 2015Donald Trump
30%		Jeb Bush

15%

Ben Carson

11%

Marco Rubio 11%, Mike Huckabee 8%, Carly Fiorina 8%, Ted Cruz 7.5%, Scott Walker 3%, Other 5%
Opinion Savvy/Insider Advantage [13]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%

Sample size: 481

August 2–3, 2015Donald Trump
37.6%		Ben Carson

14.6%

Jeb Bush

11.8%

Mike Huckabee 7.9%, Ted Cruz 4.5%, Scott Walker 3.8%, Chris Christie 3.2%, Marco Rubio 2.6%, Rand Paul 2.2%, Bobby Jindal 2.0%, John Kasich 1.4%, Rick Santorum 1.2%, Rick Perry 1.0%, Lindsey Graham 0.7%, Carly Fiorina 0.5%, George Pataki 0.0%, Someone else 1.9%, Undecided 3.1%
Cygnal [14]

Margin of error: ± 3.42%

Sample size: 821

July 7–8, 2014Jeb Bush
19.8%		Ben Carson

12.6%

Rand Paul

10.5%

Chris Christie 8.8%, Rick Perry 7.2%, Ted Cruz 5.6%, Rick Santorum 5.3%, Bobby Jindal 3.9%, Scott Walker 3.6%, Undecided 22.6%

Results

Alabama Republican primary, March 1, 2016
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump 373,72143.42%36036
Ted Cruz 181,47921.09%13013
Marco Rubio 160,60618.66%101
Ben Carson 88,09410.24%000
John Kasich 38,1194.43%000
Uncommitted7,9530.92%000
Jeb Bush (withdrawn)3,9740.46%000
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn)2,5390.30%000
Rand Paul (withdrawn)1,8950.22%000
Chris Christie (withdrawn)8580.10%000
Rick Santorum (withdrawn)6170.07%000
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn)5440.06%000
Lindsey Graham (withdrawn)2530.03%000
Unprojected delegates:000
Total:860,652100.00%50050
Source: The Green Papers

Results by county

CountyTrumpCruzRubioCarsonKasichUncommittedBushHuckabeeOther
Autauga44.57%20.48%14.75%14.57%3.48%1.01%0.47%0.26%0.40%
Baldwin46.87%17.02%19.26%8.39%5.93%1.38%0.45%N/A0.70%
Barbour50.16%17.77%14.62%12.26%3.6%0.61%0.3%0.26%0.41%
Bibb49.46%25.45%11.18%9.89%2.11%0.76%0.43%0.38%0.35%
Blount48.75%24.39%12.15%10.05%2.22%1.12%0.37%0.51%0.42%
Bullock56.50%16.97%11.55%8.48%4.15%0.54%1.26%0.18%0.36%
Butler53.78%16.68%13.37%11.77%2.69%0.53%0.66%N/A0.53%
Calhoun45.06%19.43%16.32%11.83%4.78%1.04%0.64%0.36%0.53%
Chambers47.52%20.11%13.04%13.07%3.68%0.96%0.79%0.26%0.57%
Cherokee52.10%17.23%15.19%10.01%2.83%1.29%0.37%0.54%0.43%
Chilton49.43%21.78%13.44%10.75%2.04%1.10%0.59%0.48%0.38%
Choctaw49.93%21.05%14.70%7.89%3.17%1.26%0.93%0.51%0.56%
Clarke50.22%19.28%17.48%8.92%2.71%0.41%0.33%0.39%0.26%
Clay47.48%20.89%12.49%12.25%3.09%1.60%1.06%0.52%0.62%
Cleburne48.30%21.13%13.62%9.95%2.41%1.64%1.55%0.57%0.82%
Coffee41.40%23.37%15.52%13.16%3.4%1.32%0.66%0.38%0.64%
Colbert47.45%19.62%17.68%10.89%3.05%0.54%N/AN/A0.77%
Conecuh59.02%15.96%10.82%10.51%1.30%0.84%0.61%0.46%0.46%
Coosa55.32%19.56%10.81%9.02%2.96%0.99%0.45%0.27%0.63%
Covington48.14%18.51%13.33%13.33%3.37%1.56%0.81%0.43%0.51%
Crenshaw54.50%21.93%9.11%10.42%2.55%0.51%0.44%N/A0.55%
Cullman50.65%20.25%13.49%10.96%2.66%0.800.37%0.31%0.51%
Dale45.28%21.90%13.02%12.54%3.63%1.76%0.61%0.61%0.66%
Dallas59.70%20.66%8.68%5.25%2.63%1.48%0.91%0.57%0.11%
DeKalb47.59%16.39%21.60%9.79%2.47%1.01%0.39%0.39%0.37%
Elmore47.49%18.35%13.43%14.90%3.58%0.91%0.54%0.29%0.51%
Escambia49.33%18.00%17.14%10.24%3.40%0.56%0.49%0.37%0.47%
Etowah46.09%20.75%16.79%11.19%3.27%0.74%0.41%0.28%0.49%
Fayette49.86%20.97%13.35%9.81%2.49%1.77%0.50%0.88%0.36%
Franklin51.47%21.29%13.42%9.26%2.55%0.72%0.33%0.48%0.48%
Geneva48.62%23.73%12.99%9.26%2.30%1.31%0.66%0.55%0.59%
Greene53.85%21.61%12.09%6.96%3.66%N/A0.73%0.37%0.74%
Hale52.07%24.98%11.74%7.77%2.12%0.53%N/A0.26%0.53%
Henry46.79%22.28%14.36%11.47%2.81%1.05%0.55%0.29%0.39%
Houston40.39%22.56%18.19%11.43%4.13%1.66%0.68%0.44%0.53%
Jackson49.89%16.37%16.90%10.82%2.83%2.00%0.37%0.44%0.40%
Jefferson35.02%23.82%24.67%8.92%6.09%0.55%0.36%N/A0.58%
Lamar50.43%19.26%12.97%9.57%2.87%2.25%0.78%1.03%0.83%
Lauderdale42.14%18.36%18.69%12.05%5.52%1.66%0.36%0.53%0.69%
Lawrence52.89%17.53%13.53%10.74%2.87%0.93%0.55%0.41%0.55%
Lee32.96%23.17%22.50%11.72%7.11%0.98%0.61%0.35%0.59%
Limestone43.03%21.39%18.85%10.87%3.90%0.89%0.37%N/A0.70%
Lowndes59.52%16.31%9.88%10.48%3.10%0.36%N/AN/A0.36%
Macon47.91%19.78%12.38%12.79%5.25%0.67%0.54%0.54%0.13%
Madison36.18%20.69%26.03%9.58%5.94%0.59%0.31%N/A0.69%
Marengo53.95%21.17%11.79%7.89%2.41%1.21%0.93%0.28%0.37%
Marion52.92%19.15%13.91%8.89%2.52%0.77%0.56%0.60%0.68%
Marshall49.51%15.12%20.56%9.86%3.23%0.69%0.30%0.29%0.44%
Mobile45.22%21.41%18.93%7.71%4.59%0.93%0.49%N/A0.73%
Monroe52.06%17.42%15.78%9.87%2.86%0.50%0.53%0.53%0.45%
Montgomery39.42%17.59%20.85%12.65%7.30%0.83%0.64%N/A0.73%
Morgan44.59%19.73%18.31%11.40%4.53%0.50%0.25%0.27%0.42%
Perry51.73%32.80%8.80%4.00%0.53%1.33%0.53%0.27%N/A
Pickens44.0.5%25.74%13.81%11.31%2.54%0.63%0.70%0.98%0.23%
Pike46.02%20.15%14.79%12.81%3.16%1.23%0.79%0.40%0.66%
Randolph51.59%20.65%12.83%9.36%2.92%0.94%0.77%0.55%0.39%
Russell47.45%27.03%12.31%7.92%2.82%1.04%0.53%N/A0.90%
St. Clair44.60%26.88%13.42%10.86%2.69%0.53%0.41%N/A0.61%
Shelby34.35%26.37%22.95%9.42%5.03%0.83%0.37%N/A0.67%
Sumter59.36%15.90%13.78%7.42%1.41%0.35%1.41%0.35%N/A
Talladega51.05%19.98%13.56%9.54%3.80%0.71%0.59%0.35%0.40%
Tallapoosa52.78%15.01%14.60%11.40%4.20%0.53%0.62%0.27%0.58%
Tuscaloosa37.46%25.05%20.37%10.64%4.44%0.88%0.41%0.29%0.44%
Walker55.11%20.37%10.84%8.97%2.37%1.17%0.46%0.32%0.40%
Washington53.78%21.82%15.31%6.43%1.14%0.85%N/AN/A0.68%
Wilcox54.36%21.59%12.12%8.33%2.27%N/A0.57%0.38%0.38%
Winston56.12%18.01%11.85%9.02%2.73%0.90%0.45%0.37%0.54%
TOTAL43.42%21.09%18.66%10.24%4.43%0.92%0.46%0.30%0.48%
[15]

By congressional district

Trump won all 7 congressional districts. [16]

DistrictTrumpCruzRubio
1st 46%19%19%
2nd 46%21%15%
3rd 44%21%16%
4th 49%19%16%
5th 40%20%22%
6th 37%25%22%
7th 43%23%18%

Analysis

According to Pew Research, Alabama's Republican electorate has the second-highest proportion of white Evangelicals of any Super Tuesday state, at 63% of Republican voters. [17]

Donald Trump won the Alabama primary in a landslide due to support from Evangelical primary voters. Trump carried 43% of Evangelicals compared to 22% for Ted Cruz, according to exit polls by Edison Research. [18] Many pundits were perplexed by Trump's dominance among culturally conservative Southern whites who were expected to view him as immoral, but he benefitted from voters' racial, cultural, and economic angst that mattered more than shared values. [19]

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References

  1. ↑ Cox, Amanda; Katz, Josh; Quealy, Kevin (March 1, 2016). "Who Will Win Super Tuesday? Live Estimates of Tonight's Final Republican Delegate Count". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved June 21, 2022.
  2. ↑ Stokols, Eli. "Sen. Jeff Sessions endorses Trump". POLITICO. Retrieved May 6, 2019.
  3. ↑ Diamond, Jeremy (February 29, 2016). "Sen. Jeff Sessions endorses Donald Trump". CNN . Retrieved September 9, 2023.
  4. ↑ RealClearPolitics
  5. ↑ FiveThirtyEight
  6. ↑ Primary results
  7. ↑ "Trump's Lead Looks Steady in Run-Up to Super Tuesday". SurveyMonkey. Archived from the original on March 12, 2016. Retrieved March 1, 2016.
  8. ↑ "ALABAMA and OKLAHOMA: TRUMP LEADS IN BOTH CLINTON LEADS IN AL, SANDERS IN OK" (PDF). Monmouth University Poll. Archived from the original (PDF) on March 5, 2016. Retrieved March 1, 2016.
  9. ↑ "Alabama Republican Presidential Primary Poll" (PDF). Opinion Savvy. Retrieved February 27, 2016.
  10. ↑ "Poll shows Trump and Cruz in lead in Alabama GOP primary race". AL.com. Retrieved January 23, 2016.
  11. ↑ Gravis Marketing
  12. ↑ News-5/Strategy Research Archived August 13, 2015, at the Wayback Machine
  13. ↑ Opinion Savvy/Insider Advantage
  14. ↑ Cygnal
  15. ↑ Source
  16. ↑ "Certification of Results" (PDF). www.sos.alabama.com. Retrieved October 14, 2023.
  17. ↑ Lipka, Michael. "A closer look at religion in the Super Tuesday states". Pew Research Center. Retrieved June 11, 2022.
  18. ↑ "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved June 11, 2022.
  19. ↑ Maxwell, Angie (December 30, 2020). "Why Trump Became a 'Confederate' President". The Forum. 18 (4): 493–529. doi:10.1515/for-2020-2107. ISSN   1540-8884.
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