2016 Alabama Republican presidential primary

2016 Alabama Republican presidential primary

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50 pledged delegates to the 2016 Republican National Convention
Candidate Donald Trump Ted Cruz Home state New York Texas Delegate count 36 13 Popular vote 373,721 181,479 Percentage 43.42% 21.09%   Candidate Marco Rubio Ben Carson Home state Florida Virginia Delegate count 1 0 Popular vote 160,606 88,094 Percentage 18.66% 10.24%
Election results by county Election results by congressional district   Donald Trump   30–40%   40–50%   50–60%

The 2016 Alabama Republican presidential primary took place on March 1, 2016. This was the fifth primary held in the 2016 Republican primary. Donald Trump won the primary handily. The election was also held on Super Tuesday. Trump eventually won the Republican primary. He was elected President of the United States on November 8, 2016, against Hillary Clinton.

Ahead of the primary, Alabama was considered one of Donald Trump's strongest states. ^[1] Trump enjoyed the endorsement of Senator Jeff Sessions, ^[2] who would later join his Department of Justice as Attorney General. Sessions was Trump's first endorsement in the U.S. Senate.

Candidates

• Donald Trump
• Ted Cruz
• Marco Rubio
• John Kasich
• Ben Carson

Endorsements

Donald Trump

U.S. Senators

• Jeff Sessions, U.S. Senator ^[3]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Marco Rubio Republican	Donald Trump Republican	Ted Cruz Republican	Margin
RealClearPolitics [4]	until March 1, 2016	March 1, 2016	20.3%	38.0%	14.7%	Trump +17.7
FiveThirtyEight [5]	until March 1, 2016	March 1, 2016	20.4%	43.4%	17.2%	Trump +23.0

Poll source	Date	1st	2nd	3rd	Other
Primary results [6]	March 1, 2016	Donald Trump43.42%	Ted Cruz21.09%	Marco Rubio18.66%	Ben Carson 10.24%, John Kasich 4.43%, Jeb Bush 0.46%, Mike Huckabee 0.30%, Rand Paul 0.22%, Chris Christie 0.10%, Rick Santorum 0.07%, Carly Fiorina 0.06%, Lindsey Graham 0.03%
SurveyMonkey [7] Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 741	February 22–29, 2016	Donald Trump 47%	Ted Cruz 18%	Marco Rubio 14%	Ben Carson 9%, John Kasich 3%, Undecided 9%
Monmouth University [8] Margin of error: ± 4.6% Sample size: 450	February 25–28, 2016	Donald Trump 42%	Marco Rubio 19%	Ted Cruz 16%	Ben Carson 11%, John Kasich 5%, Undecided 7%
Opinion Savvy [9] Margin of error: ± 4.6% Sample size: 460	February 25–26, 2016	Donald Trump 35.8%	Marco Rubio 23.0%	Ted Cruz 16.2%	Ben Carson 10.5%, John Kasich 7.5%, Undecided 7.0%
AL.com [10] Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 500	December 10–13, 2015	Donald Trump 35%	Ted Cruz 15%	Marco Rubio 12%	Ben Carson 12%, Jeb Bush 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Chris Christie 3%, John Kasich 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Rand Paul <1%, Rick Santorum <1%, Lindsey Graham <1%
Gravis Marketing [11] Margin of error: ± 2% Sample size: 1616	September 3, 2015	Donald Trump 38%	Ben Carson 16.7%	Jeb Bush 4.9%	Ted Cruz 4.1%, Mike Huckabee 2.7%, Marco Rubio 2.3%, Carly Fiorina 2.3%, Rand Paul 1.5%, John Kasich 1.3%, Scott Walker 1.1%, Chris Christie 0.9%, Rick Santorum 0.4%, Rick Perry 0.3%, Bobby Jindal 0.3%, Lindsey Graham 0.1%, unsure 23.2%
News-5/Strategy Research [12] Margin of error: ± 2% Sample size: 3500	August 11, 2015	Donald Trump 30%	Jeb Bush 15%	Ben Carson 11%	Marco Rubio 11%, Mike Huckabee 8%, Carly Fiorina 8%, Ted Cruz 7.5%, Scott Walker 3%, Other 5%
Opinion Savvy/Insider Advantage [13] Margin of error: ± 4.4% Sample size: 481	August 2–3, 2015	Donald Trump 37.6%	Ben Carson 14.6%	Jeb Bush 11.8%	Mike Huckabee 7.9%, Ted Cruz 4.5%, Scott Walker 3.8%, Chris Christie 3.2%, Marco Rubio 2.6%, Rand Paul 2.2%, Bobby Jindal 2.0%, John Kasich 1.4%, Rick Santorum 1.2%, Rick Perry 1.0%, Lindsey Graham 0.7%, Carly Fiorina 0.5%, George Pataki 0.0%, Someone else 1.9%, Undecided 3.1%
Cygnal [14] Margin of error: ± 3.42% Sample size: 821	July 7–8, 2014	Jeb Bush 19.8%	Ben Carson 12.6%	Rand Paul 10.5%	Chris Christie 8.8%, Rick Perry 7.2%, Ted Cruz 5.6%, Rick Santorum 5.3%, Bobby Jindal 3.9%, Scott Walker 3.6%, Undecided 22.6%

Results

Alabama Republican primary, March 1, 2016

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	373,721	43.42%	36	0	36
Ted Cruz	181,479	21.09%	13	0	13
Marco Rubio	160,606	18.66%	1	0	1
Ben Carson	88,094	10.24%	0	0	0
John Kasich	38,119	4.43%	0	0	0
Uncommitted	7,953	0.92%	0	0	0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn)	3,974	0.46%	0	0	0
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn)	2,539	0.30%	0	0	0
Rand Paul (withdrawn)	1,895	0.22%	0	0	0
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	858	0.10%	0	0	0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn)	617	0.07%	0	0	0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn)	544	0.06%	0	0	0
Lindsey Graham (withdrawn)	253	0.03%	0	0	0
Unprojected delegates:			0	0	0
Total:	860,652	100.00%	50	0	50
Source: The Green Papers

Results by county

County	Trump	Cruz	Rubio	Carson	Kasich	Uncommitted	Bush	Huckabee	Other
Autauga	44.57%	20.48%	14.75%	14.57%	3.48%	1.01%	0.47%	0.26%	0.40%
Baldwin	46.87%	17.02%	19.26%	8.39%	5.93%	1.38%	0.45%	N/A	0.70%
Barbour	50.16%	17.77%	14.62%	12.26%	3.6%	0.61%	0.3%	0.26%	0.41%
Bibb	49.46%	25.45%	11.18%	9.89%	2.11%	0.76%	0.43%	0.38%	0.35%
Blount	48.75%	24.39%	12.15%	10.05%	2.22%	1.12%	0.37%	0.51%	0.42%
Bullock	56.50%	16.97%	11.55%	8.48%	4.15%	0.54%	1.26%	0.18%	0.36%
Butler	53.78%	16.68%	13.37%	11.77%	2.69%	0.53%	0.66%	N/A	0.53%
Calhoun	45.06%	19.43%	16.32%	11.83%	4.78%	1.04%	0.64%	0.36%	0.53%
Chambers	47.52%	20.11%	13.04%	13.07%	3.68%	0.96%	0.79%	0.26%	0.57%
Cherokee	52.10%	17.23%	15.19%	10.01%	2.83%	1.29%	0.37%	0.54%	0.43%
Chilton	49.43%	21.78%	13.44%	10.75%	2.04%	1.10%	0.59%	0.48%	0.38%
Choctaw	49.93%	21.05%	14.70%	7.89%	3.17%	1.26%	0.93%	0.51%	0.56%
Clarke	50.22%	19.28%	17.48%	8.92%	2.71%	0.41%	0.33%	0.39%	0.26%
Clay	47.48%	20.89%	12.49%	12.25%	3.09%	1.60%	1.06%	0.52%	0.62%
Cleburne	48.30%	21.13%	13.62%	9.95%	2.41%	1.64%	1.55%	0.57%	0.82%
Coffee	41.40%	23.37%	15.52%	13.16%	3.4%	1.32%	0.66%	0.38%	0.64%
Colbert	47.45%	19.62%	17.68%	10.89%	3.05%	0.54%	N/A	N/A	0.77%
Conecuh	59.02%	15.96%	10.82%	10.51%	1.30%	0.84%	0.61%	0.46%	0.46%
Coosa	55.32%	19.56%	10.81%	9.02%	2.96%	0.99%	0.45%	0.27%	0.63%
Covington	48.14%	18.51%	13.33%	13.33%	3.37%	1.56%	0.81%	0.43%	0.51%
Crenshaw	54.50%	21.93%	9.11%	10.42%	2.55%	0.51%	0.44%	N/A	0.55%
Cullman	50.65%	20.25%	13.49%	10.96%	2.66%	0.80	0.37%	0.31%	0.51%
Dale	45.28%	21.90%	13.02%	12.54%	3.63%	1.76%	0.61%	0.61%	0.66%
Dallas	59.70%	20.66%	8.68%	5.25%	2.63%	1.48%	0.91%	0.57%	0.11%
DeKalb	47.59%	16.39%	21.60%	9.79%	2.47%	1.01%	0.39%	0.39%	0.37%
Elmore	47.49%	18.35%	13.43%	14.90%	3.58%	0.91%	0.54%	0.29%	0.51%
Escambia	49.33%	18.00%	17.14%	10.24%	3.40%	0.56%	0.49%	0.37%	0.47%
Etowah	46.09%	20.75%	16.79%	11.19%	3.27%	0.74%	0.41%	0.28%	0.49%
Fayette	49.86%	20.97%	13.35%	9.81%	2.49%	1.77%	0.50%	0.88%	0.36%
Franklin	51.47%	21.29%	13.42%	9.26%	2.55%	0.72%	0.33%	0.48%	0.48%
Geneva	48.62%	23.73%	12.99%	9.26%	2.30%	1.31%	0.66%	0.55%	0.59%
Greene	53.85%	21.61%	12.09%	6.96%	3.66%	N/A	0.73%	0.37%	0.74%
Hale	52.07%	24.98%	11.74%	7.77%	2.12%	0.53%	N/A	0.26%	0.53%
Henry	46.79%	22.28%	14.36%	11.47%	2.81%	1.05%	0.55%	0.29%	0.39%
Houston	40.39%	22.56%	18.19%	11.43%	4.13%	1.66%	0.68%	0.44%	0.53%
Jackson	49.89%	16.37%	16.90%	10.82%	2.83%	2.00%	0.37%	0.44%	0.40%
Jefferson	35.02%	23.82%	24.67%	8.92%	6.09%	0.55%	0.36%	N/A	0.58%
Lamar	50.43%	19.26%	12.97%	9.57%	2.87%	2.25%	0.78%	1.03%	0.83%
Lauderdale	42.14%	18.36%	18.69%	12.05%	5.52%	1.66%	0.36%	0.53%	0.69%
Lawrence	52.89%	17.53%	13.53%	10.74%	2.87%	0.93%	0.55%	0.41%	0.55%
Lee	32.96%	23.17%	22.50%	11.72%	7.11%	0.98%	0.61%	0.35%	0.59%
Limestone	43.03%	21.39%	18.85%	10.87%	3.90%	0.89%	0.37%	N/A	0.70%
Lowndes	59.52%	16.31%	9.88%	10.48%	3.10%	0.36%	N/A	N/A	0.36%
Macon	47.91%	19.78%	12.38%	12.79%	5.25%	0.67%	0.54%	0.54%	0.13%
Madison	36.18%	20.69%	26.03%	9.58%	5.94%	0.59%	0.31%	N/A	0.69%
Marengo	53.95%	21.17%	11.79%	7.89%	2.41%	1.21%	0.93%	0.28%	0.37%
Marion	52.92%	19.15%	13.91%	8.89%	2.52%	0.77%	0.56%	0.60%	0.68%
Marshall	49.51%	15.12%	20.56%	9.86%	3.23%	0.69%	0.30%	0.29%	0.44%
Mobile	45.22%	21.41%	18.93%	7.71%	4.59%	0.93%	0.49%	N/A	0.73%
Monroe	52.06%	17.42%	15.78%	9.87%	2.86%	0.50%	0.53%	0.53%	0.45%
Montgomery	39.42%	17.59%	20.85%	12.65%	7.30%	0.83%	0.64%	N/A	0.73%
Morgan	44.59%	19.73%	18.31%	11.40%	4.53%	0.50%	0.25%	0.27%	0.42%
Perry	51.73%	32.80%	8.80%	4.00%	0.53%	1.33%	0.53%	0.27%	N/A
Pickens	44.0.5%	25.74%	13.81%	11.31%	2.54%	0.63%	0.70%	0.98%	0.23%
Pike	46.02%	20.15%	14.79%	12.81%	3.16%	1.23%	0.79%	0.40%	0.66%
Randolph	51.59%	20.65%	12.83%	9.36%	2.92%	0.94%	0.77%	0.55%	0.39%
Russell	47.45%	27.03%	12.31%	7.92%	2.82%	1.04%	0.53%	N/A	0.90%
St. Clair	44.60%	26.88%	13.42%	10.86%	2.69%	0.53%	0.41%	N/A	0.61%
Shelby	34.35%	26.37%	22.95%	9.42%	5.03%	0.83%	0.37%	N/A	0.67%
Sumter	59.36%	15.90%	13.78%	7.42%	1.41%	0.35%	1.41%	0.35%	N/A
Talladega	51.05%	19.98%	13.56%	9.54%	3.80%	0.71%	0.59%	0.35%	0.40%
Tallapoosa	52.78%	15.01%	14.60%	11.40%	4.20%	0.53%	0.62%	0.27%	0.58%
Tuscaloosa	37.46%	25.05%	20.37%	10.64%	4.44%	0.88%	0.41%	0.29%	0.44%
Walker	55.11%	20.37%	10.84%	8.97%	2.37%	1.17%	0.46%	0.32%	0.40%
Washington	53.78%	21.82%	15.31%	6.43%	1.14%	0.85%	N/A	N/A	0.68%
Wilcox	54.36%	21.59%	12.12%	8.33%	2.27%	N/A	0.57%	0.38%	0.38%
Winston	56.12%	18.01%	11.85%	9.02%	2.73%	0.90%	0.45%	0.37%	0.54%
TOTAL	43.42%	21.09%	18.66%	10.24%	4.43%	0.92%	0.46%	0.30%	0.48%
[15]

By congressional district

Trump won all 7 congressional districts. ^[16]

District	Trump	Cruz	Rubio
1st	46%	19%	19%
2nd	46%	21%	15%
3rd	44%	21%	16%
4th	49%	19%	16%
5th	40%	20%	22%
6th	37%	25%	22%
7th	43%	23%	18%

Analysis

According to Pew Research, Alabama's Republican electorate has the second-highest proportion of white Evangelicals of any Super Tuesday state, at 63% of Republican voters. ^[17]

Donald Trump won the Alabama primary in a landslide due to support from Evangelical primary voters. Trump carried 43% of Evangelicals compared to 22% for Ted Cruz, according to exit polls by Edison Research. ^[18] Many pundits were perplexed by Trump's dominance among culturally conservative Southern whites who were expected to view him as immoral, but he benefitted from voters' racial, cultural, and economic angst that mattered more than shared values. ^[19]

References

1. Cox, Amanda; Katz, Josh; Quealy, Kevin (March 1, 2016). "Who Will Win Super Tuesday? Live Estimates of Tonight's Final Republican Delegate Count". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved June 21, 2022.
2. Stokols, Eli. "Sen. Jeff Sessions endorses Trump". POLITICO. Retrieved May 6, 2019.
3. Diamond, Jeremy (February 29, 2016). "Sen. Jeff Sessions endorses Donald Trump". CNN . Retrieved September 9, 2023.
4. RealClearPolitics
5. FiveThirtyEight
6. Primary results
7. "Trump's Lead Looks Steady in Run-Up to Super Tuesday". SurveyMonkey. Archived from the original on March 12, 2016. Retrieved March 1, 2016.
8. "ALABAMA and OKLAHOMA: TRUMP LEADS IN BOTH CLINTON LEADS IN AL, SANDERS IN OK" (PDF). Monmouth University Poll. Archived from the original (PDF) on March 5, 2016. Retrieved March 1, 2016.
9. "Alabama Republican Presidential Primary Poll" (PDF). Opinion Savvy. Retrieved February 27, 2016.
10. "Poll shows Trump and Cruz in lead in Alabama GOP primary race". AL.com. Retrieved January 23, 2016.
11. Gravis Marketing
12. News-5/Strategy Research Archived August 13, 2015, at the Wayback Machine
13. Opinion Savvy/Insider Advantage
14. Cygnal
15. Source
16. "Certification of Results" (PDF). www.sos.alabama.com. Retrieved October 14, 2023.
17. Lipka, Michael. "A closer look at religion in the Super Tuesday states". Pew Research Center. Retrieved June 11, 2022.
18. "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved June 11, 2022.
19. Maxwell, Angie (December 30, 2020). "Why Trump Became a 'Confederate' President". The Forum. 18 (4): 493–529. doi:10.1515/for-2020-2107. ISSN   1540-8884.