2016 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses

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2016 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses
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30 pledged delegates to the Republican National Convention
  Ted Cruz by Gage Skidmore 10 (cropped).jpg Donald Trump by Gage Skidmore 10 (cropped).jpg Marco Rubio by Gage Skidmore 8 (cropped).jpg
Candidate Ted Cruz Donald Trump Marco Rubio
Home state Texas New York Florida
Delegate count877
Popular vote51,66645,42943,228
Percentage27.6%24.3%23.1%
  Ben Carson by Skidmore with lighting correction (cropped).jpg Rand Paul (17083068012) (cropped).jpg Jeb Bush by Gage Skidmore 2 (cropped).jpg
Candidate Ben Carson Rand Paul Jeb Bush
Home state Virginia Kentucky Florida
Delegate count311
Popular vote17,3948,4815,238
Percentage9.3%4.5%2.8%
  Carly Fiorina NFRW 2015 lighting corrected.jpg John Kasich (24618295175) (cropped).jpg Mike Huckabee by Gage Skidmore 6 (cropped).jpg
Candidate Carly Fiorina John Kasich Mike Huckabee
Home state Virginia Ohio Arkansas
Delegate count111
Popular vote3,4853,4743,345
Percentage1.9%1.9%1.8%
2016 IA GOP Presidential primary.svg
Results by county
  Tie

The 2016 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses took place on February 1 in the U.S. state of Iowa, traditionally marking the Republican Party's first nominating contest in their series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

Contents

The Democratic Party held its own Iowa caucuses on the same day.

Ted Cruz was able to defeat Donald Trump in the Iowa Caucus by winning over Evangelical caucus-goers; [1] Cruz won 51,666 caucus votes or 27.6%, giving him a net gain of one delegate over Trump. Cruz visited all 99 counties of Iowa and held small events. [2] Cruz outperformed his polling average, which predicted a narrow Trump victory in the caucus.

Following poor performances in the caucuses, Rand Paul, [3] Mike Huckabee [4] and Rick Santorum [5] suspended their campaigns.

Procedure

According to the Republican Party of Iowa's bylaws, if more than one candidate is nominated at the Republican National Convention, all of Iowa's delegates are bound to vote "proportionally in accordance with the outcome of the Iowa Caucuses" on the first ballot, even if the candidate has withdrawn from the race. [6] The ballot is a blank piece of paper, and the candidates that voters may vote for in the non-binding preference poll included the following:

Caucus Operations

The caucuses began at 7:00 PM local time across 1,681 precincts statewide. After the selection of caucus chairs and secretaries, campaign representatives made speeches supporting their candidates before voters cast their preferences on paper ballots. The 2016 Republican caucuses set a new turnout record with 186,932 participants, significantly higher than the 121,503 who participated in 2012. [7]

Campaign

The Iowa caucuses required extensive ground organization and retail politics from the candidates. Ted Cruz's campaign pursued a traditional grassroots approach, completing the "Full Grassley" by visiting all 99 counties in Iowa while building relationships with evangelical and conservative leaders. [8] His campaign utilized sophisticated data analytics and microtargeting to identify and turn out likely supporters.

Donald Trump opted for a less conventional strategy, focusing on large rallies and earned media coverage that drew thousands of attendees across the state. However, questions persisted about whether his unorthodox approach could successfully convert rally attendance into caucus participation from first-time voters. [9]

Marco Rubio positioned himself as an electable conservative alternative, particularly appealing to suburban voters and party regulars. His campaign emphasized his youth and vision for a "New American Century," gaining momentum in the final weeks before the caucuses. [10]

Forums and debates

November 20, 2015 – Des Moines, Iowa The Presidential Family Forum was held in the Community Choice Credit Union Convention Center in Des Moines, Iowa. Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, and Rick Santorum attended the forum hosted by evangelical Christian advocacy group The Family Leader. It was hosted by politician and political activist Bob Vander Plaats and moderated by political consultant and pollster Frank Luntz. [11] Protesters interrupted the beginning of the event and were removed by police. [12]

January 28, 2016 – Des Moines, Iowa The seventh debate was the second debate to air on Fox News. As in Fox's first debate, the moderators were Bret Baier, Megyn Kelly, and Chris Wallace. [13] This was the last debate before actual voting began with the Iowa caucuses on February 1, 2016. [14] [15] Due to personality conflicts with Fox News, Donald Trump opted out of the debate. [16]

Endorsements

Cruz secured several influential endorsements that proved crucial to his victory, including Congressman Steve King, who represented Iowa's 4th congressional district, and Bob Vander Plaats, president of The Family Leader, a prominent evangelical organization. [17] [18]

Trump notably received limited support from Iowa Republican officials, though he led most pre-caucus polls. Meanwhile, Rubio gained important momentum when he received the endorsement of the Des Moines Register and other newspapers in the closing weeks of the campaign. [19]

Jeb Bush

Former executive branch officials

U.S. Representatives

State Senators

State Representatives

Ben Carson

State Representatives

Chris Christie

State Representatives

Ted Cruz

U.S. Representatives

State Senators

State Representatives

Notable individuals

Carly Fiorina

State Senators

State Representatives

John Kasich

State Representatives

Mike Huckabee

State Representatives

Marco Rubio

State Senators

State Representatives

Newspapers

Rick Santorum

State Representatives

Donald Trump

State Senators

Withdrawn candidates

Lindsey Graham (Withdrawn)

State Senators

Bobby Jindal (Withdrawn)

State Representatives

Rick Perry (Withdrawn)

State Representatives

Scott Walker (Withdrawn)

State Senators

State Representatives

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll

aggregation

Dates

administered

Dates

updated

 Marco Rubio
Republican 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Ted Cruz
Republican 		Margin
RealClearPolitics [82] until February 1, 2016February 1, 201616.9%28.6%23.9%
FiveThirtyEight [83] until February 1, 2016February 1, 201618.1%25.6%24.3%
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Caucus results [84] February 1, 2016 Ted Cruz
27.64%		 Donald Trump
24.30%		 Marco Rubio
23.12%		 Ben Carson 9.30%, Rand Paul 4.54%, Jeb Bush 2.80%, Carly Fiorina 1.86%, John Kasich 1.86%, Mike Huckabee 1.79%, Chris Christie 1.76%, Rick Santorum 0.95%, Jim Gilmore 0.01%, Other 0.06%
Emerson College [85]

Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample size: 298

January 29–31, 2016Donald Trump
27.3%		Ted Cruz
25.6%		Marco Rubio
21.6%		Mike Huckabee 4.7%, Jeb Bush 3.8%, John Kasich 3.8%, Rand Paul 3.4%, Ben Carson 3.4%, Chris Christie 3.2%, Carly Fiorina 1.7%, Rick Santorum 0.5%, Undecided 1%
Quinnipiac University [86]

Margin of error: ± 3.3% Sample size: 890

January 25–31, 2016Donald Trump
31%		Ted Cruz
24%		Marco Rubio
17%		Ben Carson 8%, Jeb Bush 4%, Rand Paul 4%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Not decided 3%
Opinion Savvy [87]

Margin of error: ± 3.2%
Sample size: 887

January 29–30, 2016Donald Trump
20.1%		Ted Cruz
19.4%		Marco Rubio
18.6%		Ben Carson 9.0%, Rand Paul 8.6%, Jeb Bush 4.9%, Mike Huckabee 4.4%, John Kasich 4.0%, Carly Fiorina 3.8%, Chris Christie 3.0%, Rick Santorum 2.1%, Undecided 2.2%
Des Moines Register/
Bloomberg/Selzer [88]

Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 602

January 26–29, 2016Donald Trump
28%		Ted Cruz
23%		Marco Rubio
15%		Ben Carson 10%, Rand Paul 5%, Chris Christie 3%, Jeb Bush 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Jim Gimore 0%, Undecided 2%, Uncommitted 3%
Public Policy Polling [89]

Margin of error: ± 3.5% Sample size: 780

January 26–27, 2016Donald Trump
31%		Ted Cruz
23%		Marco Rubio
14%		Ben Carson 9%, Jeb Bush 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Rand Paul 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gimore 1%, Undecided 2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist [90]

Margin of error: ± 4.8% Sample size: 415

January 24–26, 2016Donald Trump
32%		Ted Cruz
25%		Marco Rubio
18%		Ben Carson 8%, Jeb Bush 4%, Carly Fiorina 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Chris Christie 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Other 0%, Undecided 3%
Monmouth University [91]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 500

January 23–26, 2016Donald Trump
30%		Ted Cruz
23%		Marco Rubio
16%		Ben Carson 10%, Jeb Bush 4%, Rand Paul 3%, John Kasich 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Other 0%, Undecided 3%
ARG [92]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

January 21–24, 2016Donald Trump
33%		Ted Cruz
26%		Marco Rubio
11%		Ben Carson 7%, Chris Christie 4%, Rand Paul 4%, Jeb Bush 3%, John Kasich 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Other 1%, Undecided 5%
Quinnipiac University [93]

Margin of error: ± 3.8% Sample size: 651

January 18–24, 2016Donald Trump
31%		Ted Cruz
29%		Marco Rubio
13%		Ben Carson 7%, Rand Paul 5%, Jeb Bush 4%, Chris Christie 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, John Kasich 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Not decided 2%
ISU/WHO-HD [94]

Margin of error: ± ?%
Sample size: 283

January 5–22, 2016Ted Cruz
25.8%		Donald Trump
18.9%		Ben Carson
13.4%		Marco Rubio 12.3%, Rand Paul 6.9%, Jeb Bush 3.8%, Mike Huckabee 3.7%, Carly Fiorina 1.1%, Rick Santorum <1%, Chris Christie <1%, John Kasich <1%
Fox News [95]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 378

January 18–21, 2016Donald Trump
34%		Ted Cruz
23%		Marco Rubio
12%		Ben Carson 7%, Rand Paul 6%, Chris Christie 4%, Jeb Bush 4%, John Kasich 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Other 1%, Don't Know 2%
CBS/YouGov [96]

Margin of error: ± 5.9%
Sample size: 492

January 18–21, 2016Donald Trump
39%		Ted Cruz
34%		Marco Rubio
13%		Ben Carson 5%, Rand Paul 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Jeb Bush 1%, John Kasich 1%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Mike Huckabee 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No Preference 0%
Emerson College [97]

Margin of error: ± 5.9%
Sample size: 271

January 18–20, 2016Donald Trump
33.1%		Ted Cruz
22.8%		Marco Rubio
14.2%		Ben Carson 9.1%, Chris Christie 5.4%, Jeb Bush 5.1%, John Kasich 2.9%, Rand Paul 2.7%, Carly Fiorina 2.1%, Mike Huckabee 1.7%, Undecided 1%
CNN/ORC [98]

Margin of error: ± 6.0%
Sample size: 266

January 15–20, 2016Donald Trump
37%		Ted Cruz
26%		Marco Rubio
14%		Ben Carson 6%, Jeb Bush 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Rand Paul 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Chris Christie 1%, John Kasich 1%
Monmouth College/KBUR/Douglas Fulmer & Associates [99]

Margin of error: ± 3.7%
Sample size: 687

January 18–19, 2016Ted Cruz
27%		Donald Trump
25%		Ben Carson
11%		Marco Rubio 9%, Jeb Bush 7%, Chris Christie 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Rand Paul 3%, John Kasich 3%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 1%, Undecided 4%
Loras College [100]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 500

January 13–18, 2016Donald Trump
26%		Ted Cruz
25%		Marco Rubio
13%		Ben Carson 8%, Jeb Bush 6%, John Kasich 4%, Chris Christie 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Undecide 7%
Public Policy Polling [101]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 530

January 8–10, 2016Donald Trump
28%		Ted Cruz
26%		Marco Rubio
13%		Ben Carson 8%, Jeb Bush 6%, Chris Christie 3%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, John Kasich 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 2%
DM Register/Bloomberg [102]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 500

January 7–10, 2016Ted Cruz
25%		Donald Trump
22%		Marco Rubio
12%		Ben Carson 11%, Rand Paul 5%, Jeb Bush 4%, Chris Christie 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Santorum 1%
ARG [103]

Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 600

January 6–10, 2016Donald Trump
29%		Ted Cruz
25%		Marco Rubio
10%		Ben Carson 8%, Chris Christie 6%, Rand Paul 4%, Jeb Bush 3%, John Kasich 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Other 1%, Undecided 5%
Quinnipiac University [104]

Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 602

January 5–10, 2016Donald Trump
31%		Ted Cruz
29%		Marco Rubio
15%		Ben Carson 7%, Chris Christie 4%, Jeb Bush 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Rand Paul 2%, John Kasich 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Not decided 5%
Fox News [105]

Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 504

January 4–7, 2016Ted Cruz
27%		Donald Trump
23%		Marco Rubio
15%		Ben Carson 9%, Jeb Bush 7%, Rand Paul 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Other 1%, Undecided 2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist [106]

Margin of error: ± 4.6% Sample size: 456

January 2–7, 2016Ted Cruz
28%		Donald Trump
24%		Marco Rubio
13%		Ben Carson 11%, Rand Paul 5%, Jeb Bush 4%, Chris Christie 3%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Other 1%, Undecided 3%
Polls in 2015
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Gravis Marketing [107]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 440

December 18–21, 2015Donald Trump
31%		Ted Cruz
31%		Marco Rubio
9%		Ben Carson 7%, Jeb Bush 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Chris Christie 2%, John Kasich 2%, George Pataki 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, Rand Paul 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, Unsure 5%
CBS News/YouGov [108]

Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 1252

December 14–17, 2015Ted Cruz
40%		Donald Trump
31%		Marco Rubio
12%		Ben Carson 6%, Jeb Bush 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Chris Christie 1%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, George Pataki 0%, No preference 0%
Public Policy Polling [109]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 522

December 10–13, 2015Donald Trump
28%		Ted Cruz
25%		Marco Rubio
14%		Ben Carson 10%, Jeb Bush 7%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Chris Christie 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Rand Paul 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, George Pataki 0%, Undecided 1%
Quinnipiac University [110]

Margin of error: ± 3.3%
Sample size: 874

December 4–13, 2015Donald Trump
28%		Ted Cruz
27%		Marco Rubio
14%		Ben Carson 10%, Jeb Bush 5%, Rand Paul 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Chris Christie 3%, Mike Huckabee 1%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, DK 3%
Loras College [111]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 499

December 7–10, 2015Ted Cruz
29.7%		Donald Trump
23.4%		Ben Carson
10.8%		Marco Rubio 10.6%, Jeb Bush 6.2%, Carly Fiorina 3.4%, Rand Paul 2.4%, Mike Huckabee 1.8%, John Kasich 1.0%, Rick Santorum 1.0%, Chris Christie 0.4%, Lindsey Graham 0.0%, Undecided 9.0%
Fox News [112]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 450

December 7–10, 2015Ted Cruz
28%		Donald Trump
26%		Marco Rubio
13%		Ben Carson 10%, Jeb Bush 5%, Rand Paul 5%, Chris Christie 2%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Mike Huckabee 1%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Uncommitted 1%, Other 1%, DK 3%
DMR/Bloomberg [113]

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 400

December 7–10, 2015Ted Cruz
31%		Donald Trump
21%		Ben Carson
13%		Marco Rubio 10%, Jeb Bush 6%, Chris Christie 3%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Rand Paul 3%, John Kasich 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Uncommitted 3%, Undecided 4%
Monmouth University [114]

Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 425

December 3–6, 2015Ted Cruz
24%		Donald Trump
19%		Marco Rubio
17%		Ben Carson 13%, Jeb Bush 6%, Rand Paul 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, John Kasich 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham <1%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Uncommitted 1%, Undecided 4%
CNN/ORC [115]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 552

November 28-
December 6, 2015		Donald Trump
33%		Ted Cruz
20%		Ben Carson
16%		Marco Rubio 11%, Jeb Bush 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No one 1%, Someone else 1%, No opinion 1%
Quinnipiac University [116]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 600

November 16–22, 2015Donald Trump
25%		Ted Cruz
23%		Ben Carson
18%		Marco Rubio 13%, Rand Paul 5%, Jeb Bush 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Chris Christie 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 1%, George Pataki 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, DK/NA 2%
CBS News/YouGov [117]

Margin of error: ± 6.2%
Sample size: ?

November 15–19, 2015Donald Trump
30%		Ted Cruz
21%		Ben Carson
19%		Marco Rubio 11%, Jeb Bush 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Chris Christie 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Bobby Jindal 2%, John Kasich 1%, Mike Huckabee 1%, George Pataki 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%
Iowa State University/WHO-HD [118]

Margin of error: ± ?
Sample size: 518

November 2–15, 2015Ben Carson
27%		Marco Rubio
17%		Donald Trump
15%		Ted Cruz 9%, Jeb Bush 5%, Rand Paul 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Mike Huckabee 1%, John Kasich 1%, Chris Christie 0%, Rick Santorum 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%
CNN/ORC [119]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 548

October 29 – November 4, 2015Donald Trump
25%		Ben Carson
23%		Marco Rubio
13%		Ted Cruz 11%, Jeb Bush 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Bobby Jindal 4%, Chris Christie 3%, Lindsey Graham 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Rick Santorum 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No opinion 3%
Gravis Marketing/One America News Network [120]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 356

October 30 – November 2, 2015Donald Trump
29.4%		Ben Carson
22.4%		Marco Rubio
18.0%		Ted Cruz 8.5%, Jeb Bush 6.0%, Carly Fiorina 5.2%, John Kasich 3.1%, Chris Christie 2.4%, Rand Paul 1.8%, Bobby Jindal 1.5%, Mike Huckabee 1.1%, Rick Santorum 0.4%, Lindsey Graham 0.3%
Public Policy Polling [121]

Margin of error: ± 3.9%
Sample size: 638

October 30 – November 1, 2015Donald Trump
22%		Ben Carson
21%		Ted Cruz
14%		Marco Rubio 10%, Bobby Jindal 6%, Mike Huckabee 6%, Jeb Bush 5%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Chris Christie 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 1%
KBUR/Monmouth University [122]

Margin of error: ± 3.37%
Sample size: 874

October 29–31, 2015Ben Carson
27.5%		Donald Trump
20.4%		Ted Cruz
15.1%		Marco Rubio 10.1%, Jeb Bush 9.0%, Carly Fiorina 4.1%, Lindsey Graham 0.2%, Mike Huckabee 1.7%, John Kasich 1.9%, Rand Paul 1.6%, Chris Christie 2.3%, Bobby Jindal 1.3%, Rick Santorum 0.7%, Jim Gilmore 0.3%, George Pataki 0%, Undecided 3.8%
Monmouth University [123]

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 400

October 22–25, 2015Ben Carson
32%		Donald Trump
18%		Ted Cruz
10%		Marco Rubio 10%, Jeb Bush 8%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Rand Paul 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Chris Christie 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Other 0%, Uncommitted 1%, Undecided 5%
Loras College [124]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 500

October 19–22, 2015Ben Carson
30.6%		Donald Trump
18.6%		Marco Rubio
10.0%		Jeb Bush 6.8%, Ted Cruz 6.2%, Bobby Jindal 4.6%, Carly Fiorina 2.4%, Chris Christie 1.8%, Rand Paul 1.8%, John Kasich 1.4%, Mike Huckabee 1.2%, Rick Santorum 0.8%, Lindsey Graham 0.4%, George Pataki 0%, Undecided 12.8%
CBS News/YouGov [125]

Margin of error: ± 6.5%
Sample size: ?

October 15–22, 2015Donald Trump
27%		Ben Carson
27%		Ted Cruz
12%		Marco Rubio 9%, Jeb Bush 6%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Rand Paul 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, John Kasich 2%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, No preference 3%
DMR/Bloomberg [126]

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 401

October 16–21, 2015Ben Carson
28%		Donald Trump
19%		Ted Cruz
10%		Marco Rubio 9%, Rand Paul 5%, Jeb Bush 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Mike Huckabee 3%, John Kasich 2%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Not sure 7%, Uncommitted 3%
Quinnipiac University [127]

Margin of error: ± 4.1%
Sample size: 574

October 14–20, 2015Ben Carson
28%		Donald Trump
20%		Marco Rubio
13%		Ted Cruz 10%, Rand Paul 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Jeb Bush 5%, John Kasich 3%, Bobby Jindal 3%, Mike Huckabee 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 3%
NBC/WSJ [128]

Margin of error: ± 4.7%
Sample size: 431

October 2015Donald Trump
24%		Ben Carson
19%		Carly Fiorina
8%		Jeb Bush 7%, Ted Cruz 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Bobby Jindal 6%, Mike Huckabee 5%, Rand Paul 4%, Chris Christie 4%, John Kasich 3%, Rick Santorum 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, George Pataki <1%, Jim Gilmore <1%, Undecided 7%
Gravis Marketing [129]

Margin of error: ± 4.6%
Sample size: 454

October 2, 2015Donald Trump
18.8%		Ben Carson
14.1%		Ted Cruz
10.6%		Carly Fiorina 9.7%, Marco Rubio 8.9%, Jeb Bush 6.9%, John Kasich 2.6%, Rand Paul 2.4%, Mike Huckabee 1.8%, Lindsey Graham 1.8%, Bobby Jindal 1.7%, Chris Christie 1.4%, Rick Santorum 1.3%, George Pataki 0.3%, Unsure 17.9%
Public Policy Polling [130]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 488

September 18–20, 2015Donald Trump
24%		Ben Carson
17%		Carly Fiorina
13%		Ted Cruz 8%, Marco Rubio 8%, Mike Huckabee 6%, Jeb Bush 6%, Scott Walker 5%, Rand Paul 4%, Bobby Jindal 4%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Undecided 3%
CBS News/YouGov [131]

Margin of error: ± 5.7%
Sample size: 705

September 3–10, 2015Donald Trump
29%		Ben Carson
25%		Ted Cruz
10%		Marco Rubio 6%, Scott Walker 5%, Carly Fiorina 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Rick Santorum 3%, Jeb Bush 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rand Paul 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Jim Gilmore 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Rick Perry 0%, No preference 4%
Quinnipiac University [132]

Margin of error: ± 3.0%
Sample size: 1038

August 27 – September 8, 2015Donald Trump
27%		Ben Carson
21%		Ted Cruz
9%		Jeb Bush 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Marco Rubio 5%, John Kasich 5%, Rand Paul 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Scott Walker 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Rick Perry 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 4%
NBC News/Marist [133]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 390

August 26 – September 2, 2015Donald Trump
29%		Ben Carson
22%		Jeb Bush
6%		Carly Fiorina 5%, Rand Paul 5%, Scott Walker 5%, Ted Cruz 4%, Marco Rubio 4%, Bobby Jindal 4%, Mike Huckabee 3%, Chris Christie 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, Rick Perry 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 8%
Gravis Marketing/One America [134]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 507

August 29–31, 2015Donald Trump
31.7%		Ben Carson
15.8%		Ted Cruz
6.9%		Marco Rubio 5.8%, Scott Walker 5.6%, Bobby Jindal 5.2%, Carly Fiorina 4.6%, Jeb Bush 4.1%, Mike Huckabee 2.6%, Chris Christie 2.0%, John Kasich 1.4%, Rand Paul 1.3%, Rick Perry 0.9%, Rick Santorum 0.6%, Lindsey Graham 0.4%, George Pataki 0.1%, Undecided 10.9%
Monmouth University [135]

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 405

August 27–30, 2015Donald Trump
23%		Ben Carson
23%		Carly Fiorina
10%		Ted Cruz 9%, Scott Walker 7%, Jeb Bush 5%, John Kasich 4%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rand Paul 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Chris Christie 1%, Rick Perry 1%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Someone else 0%, Undecided 5%
Des Moines Register/Bloomberg/Selzer [136]

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 400

August 23–26, 2015Donald Trump
23%		Ben Carson
18%		Ted Cruz
8%		Scott Walker 8%, Jeb Bush 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Rand Paul 4%, Chris Christie 2%, Bobby Jindal 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Perry 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Someone else 0%, Undecided 10%
CNN/ORC [137]

Margin of error: ± 2%
Sample size: 2,014

August 7–11, 2015Donald Trump
22%		Ben Carson
14%		Scott Walker
9%		Ted Cruz 8%, Carly Fiorina 7%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Jeb Bush 5%, Rand Paul 5%, Marco Rubio 5%, Chris Christie 3%, Lindsey Graham 2%, Bobby Jindal 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Perry 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Someone else 0%, No one 2%, No opinion 4%
NBC/Marist [138]

Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 342

July 14–21, 2015Scott Walker
19%		Donald Trump
17%		Jeb Bush
12%		Ben Carson 8%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Rand Paul 5%, Ted Cruz 4%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rick Perry 3%, Chris Christie 2%, John Kasich 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, Rick Santorum 0%, George Pataki 0%, Jim Gilmore 0%, Undecided 14%
Quinnipiac University [139]

Margin of error: ± 3.8%
Sample size: 666

June 20–29, 2015Scott Walker
18%		Ben Carson
10%		Donald Trump
10%		Ted Cruz 9%, Rand Paul 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Marco Rubio 7%, Mike Huckabee 5%, Rick Perry 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Bobby Jindal 3%, John Kasich 2%, Chris Christie 1%, Lindsey Graham 1%, George Pataki 0%, DK/NA 5%
Morning Consult [140]

Margin of error: ± ?%
Sample size: 265

May 31 – June 8, 2015Scott Walker
18%		Jeb Bush
10%		Mike Huckabee
10%		Rand Paul 10%, Marco Rubio 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Ben Carson 5%, Donald Trump 5%, Ted Cruz 4%, Carly Fiorina 2%, Don't know/No opinion/Refused 21%, Someone else 3%
Gravis Marketing [141]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 364

May 28–29, 2015Scott Walker
17%		Marco Rubio
13%		Ben Carson
12%		Jeb Bush 10%, Mike Huckabee 8%, Ted Cruz 6%, Rick Santorum 6%, Carly Fiorina 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Rand Paul 4%, Unsure 15%
Des Moines Register [142]

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 402

May 25–29, 2015Scott Walker
17%		Ben Carson
10%		Rand Paul
10%		Jeb Bush 9%, Mike Huckabee 9%, Marco Rubio 6%, Rick Santorum 6%, Ted Cruz 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Donald Trump 4%, Rick Perry 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, John Kasich 2%, Lindsey Graham 1%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Uncommitted 4%, Not sure 7%
Quinnipiac University [143]

Margin of error: ± 3.8%
Sample size: 667

April 25 – May 4, 2015Scott Walker
21%		Rand Paul
13%		Marco Rubio
13%		Ted Cruz 12%, Mike Huckabee 11%, Ben Carson 7%, Jeb Bush 5%, Chris Christie 3%, Rick Perry 3%, Carly Fiorina 2%, John Kasich 2%, Rick Santorum 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Don't know/No answer 6%
Public Policy Polling [144]

Margin of error: ± 4.6%
Sample size: 462

April 23–26, 2015Scott Walker
23%		Marco Rubio
13%		Jeb Bush
12%		Mike Huckabee 10%, Rand Paul 10%, Ted Cruz 8%, Ben Carson 7%, Chris Christie 5%, Rick Perry 4%, Undecided 8%
Loras College [145]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 509

April 21–23, 2015Scott Walker
12.6%		Marco Rubio
10%		Jeb Bush
9.6%		Mike Huckabee 8.6%, Ted Cruz 6.5%, Ben Carson 6.3%, Rand Paul 6.3%, Chris Christie 5.1%, Rick Santorum 3.5%, Donald Trump 3.1%, Rick Perry 2.6%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Bobby Jindal 1%, John Kasich 1%, Lindsey Graham 0%, Undecided 22.8%
Gravis Marketing [146]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 388

April 13, 2015Jeb Bush
16%		Scott Walker
13%		Marco Rubio
12%		Ben Carson 9%, Rand Paul 9%, Mike Huckabee 8%, Ted Cruz 6%, Chris Christie 5%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, Undecided 17%
Opinion Savvy [147]

Margin of error: ± 4.16%
Sample size: 552

March 20, 2015Scott Walker
29%		Ben Carson
14%		Jeb Bush
12%		Mike Huckabee 11%, Ted Cruz 7%, Chris Christie 5%, Rand Paul 5%, Marco Rubio 5%, Donald Trump 3%, Other/Undecided 10%
Quinnipiac University [148]

Margin of error: ± 3.9%
Sample size: 623

February 16–23, 2015Scott Walker
25%		Rand Paul
13%		Ben Carson
11%		Mike Huckabee 11%, Jeb Bush 10%, Ted Cruz 5%, Marco Rubio 4%, Chris Christie 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Rick Perry 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, John Kasich 0%, Unsure 9%
Gravis Marketing [149]

Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 343

February 12–13, 2015Scott Walker
24%		Jeb Bush
10%		Rand Paul
10%		Chris Christie 9%, Mike Huckabee 7%, Marco Rubio 7%, Rick Santorum 6%, Ben Carson 5%, Ted Cruz 4%, Carly Fiorina 3%, Unsure 15%
NBC News/Marist [150]

Margin of error: ± 5.5%
Sample size: 320

February 3–10, 2015Mike Huckabee
17%		Jeb Bush
16%		Scott Walker
15%		Chris Christie 9%, Rand Paul 7%, Ben Carson 6%, Marco Rubio 6%, Rick Santorum 5%, Rick Perry 4%, Ted Cruz 2%, Lindsey Graham 1%, Undecided 14%
Selzer & Co. [151]

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 402

January 26–29, 2015Scott Walker
15%		Rand Paul
14%		Mitt Romney
13%		Mike Huckabee 10%, Ben Carson 9%, Jeb Bush 8%, Ted Cruz 5%, Chris Christie 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Marco Rubio 3%, Rick Perry 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, John Kasich 1%, Donald Trump 1%, Mike Pence 0%, Uncommitted 2%, Not sure 5%
Scott Walker
16%		Rand Paul
15%		Mike Huckabee
13%		Ben Carson 10%, Jeb Bush 9%, Chris Christie 6%, Ted Cruz 6%, Rick Santorum 5%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rick Perry 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, John Kasich 1%, Donald Trump 1%, Mike Pence 0%, Uncommitted 3%, Not sure 5%
Loras College [152]

Margin of error: ± 5.5%
Sample size: 316

January 21–26, 2015Mitt Romney
13.7%		Mike Huckabee
12.5%		Ben Carson
10.5%		Jeb Bush 9.9%, Scott Walker 8.3%, Rand Paul 6.7%, Ted Cruz 5.1%, Marco Rubio 4.2%, Chris Christie 3.8%, Rick Santorum 3.8%, Rick Perry 2.9%, Bobby Jindal 1.6%, Carly Fiorina 1%, John Kasich 1%, Lindsey Graham 0.3% Undecided 14.7%
Mike Huckabee
14.4%		Jeb Bush
13.1%		Ben Carson
12.8%		Scott Walker 9.9%, Rand Paul 7%, Chris Christie 5.4%, Ted Cruz 5.4%, Marco Rubio 4.2%, Rick Santorum 3.8%, Rick Perry 3.2%, Bobby Jindal 1.6%, Carly Fiorina 1.3%, John Kasich 1.3%, Lindsey Graham 0.6% Undecided 16%
Gravis Marketing [153]

Margin of error: ± 3%
Sample size: 404

January 5–7, 2015Mitt Romney
21%		Jeb Bush
14%		Scott Walker
10%		Mike Huckabee 9%, Rand Paul 8%, Ted Cruz 7%, Chris Christie 5%, Paul Ryan 5%, Marco Rubio 4%, Undecided 18%
Polls in 2014
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Fox News [154]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 329

October 28–30, 2014Mike Huckabee
13%		Ben Carson
12%		Paul Ryan
9%		Jeb Bush 8%, Rand Paul 8%, Chris Christie 7%, Ted Cruz 7%, Rick Santorum 6%, Marco Rubio 5%, Scott Walker 5%, Rick Perry 3%, Bobby Jindal 1%, John Kasich 1%, Rob Portman 0%, Other 1%, None of the above 4%, Don't know 10%
Reuters/Ipsos [155]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 602

October 23–29, 2014Mitt Romney
17%		Paul Ryan
13%		Chris Christie
12%		Jeb Bush 10%, Scott Walker 10%, Rand Paul 8%, Ted Cruz 7%, Marco Rubio 6%, Rick Santorum 6%, Rick Perry 5%, Wouldn't vote 7%
Selzer & Co. [156]

Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 425

October 1–7, 2014Mitt Romney
17%		Ben Carson
11%		Rand Paul
10%		Mike Huckabee 9%, Paul Ryan 8%, Ted Cruz 7%, Rick Perry 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Jeb Bush 4%, Scott Walker 4%, Rick Santorum 3%, Marco Rubio 2%, Bobby Jindal 1%, John Kasich 1%, Mike Pence 0%, Rob Portman 0%, Uncommitted 1%, Not sure 9%
CNN/ORC [157]

Margin of error: ± 5.5%
Sample size: 310

September 8–10, 2014Mike Huckabee
21%		Paul Ryan
12%		Rand Paul
7%		Jeb Bush 6%, Chris Christie 6%, Rick Perry 5%, Marco Rubio 5%, Scott Walker 5%, Ted Cruz 4%, Bobby Jindal 4%, Rick Santorum 3%
Suffolk University [158]

Margin of error: ± 6.83%
Sample size: 206

August 23–26, 2014Mike Huckabee
13.11%		Chris Christie
10.68%		Rick Perry
8.74%		Jeb Bush 7.28%, Rand Paul 6.8%, Paul Ryan 6.31%, Rick Santorum 5.83%, Marco Rubio 5.34%, Ted Cruz 4.85%, Scott Walker 4.37%, Bobby Jindal 2.91%, Jon Huntsman Jr. 0.97%, John Kasich 0.97%, Other 4.37%, Undecided 16.99%, Refused 0.49%
Mitt Romney
35.29%		Mike Huckabee
8.82%		Chris Christie
6.47%		Rick Santorum 5.88%, Ted Cruz 5.29%, Rand Paul 5.29%, Jeb Bush 4.71, Rick Perry 4.71%, Paul Ryan 4.12%, Scott Walker 3.53%, Marco Rubio 2.35%, Bobby Jindal 1.76%, Jon Huntsman Jr. 1.18%, John Kasich 0.59%, Undecided 10%
NBC News/Marist [159]

Margin of error: ± 4.1%
Sample size: 558

July 7–13, 2014Jeb Bush
12%		Rand Paul
12%		Paul Ryan
11%		Rick Santorum 9%, Chris Christie 8%, Ted Cruz 7%, Rick Perry 7%, Marco Rubio 7%, Scott Walker 5%, Bobby Jindal 1%, Undecided 20%
Vox Populi Polling [160]

Margin of error: ± 6.6%
Sample size: 222

June 4–5, 2014Jeb Bush
18%		Mike Huckabee
15%		Paul Ryan
13%		Rand Paul 12%, Marco Rubio 11%, Rick Santorum 10%, Ted Cruz 9%, Chris Christie 6%, Scott Walker 6%
Public Policy Polling [161]

Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample size: 303

May 15–19, 2014Mike Huckabee
20%		Ted Cruz
15%		Jeb Bush
12%		Rand Paul 10%, Chris Christie 9%, Paul Ryan 8%, Scott Walker 6%, Marco Rubio 4%, Rick Santorum 3%, Someone else/Not sure 13%
The Daily Caller/Vox Populi Polling [162]

Margin of error: ± 8.4%
Sample size: 168

April 22–24, 2014Mike Huckabee
20%		Paul Ryan
19%		Jeb Bush
18%		Ted Cruz 9%, Marco Rubio 9%, Rand Paul 8%, Chris Christie 7%, Scott Walker 6%, Joe Scarborough 4%
Magellan Strategies [163]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 330

April 14–15, 2014Jeb Bush
17%		Mike Huckabee
17%		Chris Christie
14%		Rand Paul 11%, Ted Cruz 10%, Scott Walker 8%, John Kasich 5%, Marco Rubio 2%, Undecided 16%
Loras College [164]

Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 600

April 7–8, 2014Mike Huckabee
14.7%		Jeb Bush
10.7%		Rand Paul
8.5%		Paul Ryan 8.3%, Chris Christie 8%, Ted Cruz 6.2%, Marco Rubio 4.7%, Rick Santorum 4.7%, Scott Walker 4.7%, Rick Perry 3%, John Kasich 0.7%, Other 0.7%, Undecided 23.8%
Suffolk University [165]

Margin of error: ± 8.7%
Sample size: 127

April 3–8, 2014Mike Huckabee
11.02%		Jeb Bush
10.24%		Rand Paul
10.24%		Ted Cruz 9.45%, Ben Carson 8.66%, Chris Christie 7.09%, Paul Ryan 6.3%, Sarah Palin 5.51%, Condoleezza Rice 5.51%, Marco Rubio 5.51%, Rick Santorum 5.51%, Scott Walker 5.51%, Bobby Jindal 3.15%, Rick Perry 3.15%, Undecided 3.15%
WPA Research [166]

Margin of error: ± ?
Sample size: 402

March 30, 2014Mike Huckabee
14%		Rand Paul
10%		Scott Walker
8%		Jeb Bush 7%, Ted Cruz 7%, Paul Ryan 7%, Chris Christie 6%, Rick Santorum 5%, Rick Perry 3%, Marco Rubio 3%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Other 2%, Undecided 26%
Public Policy Polling [167]

Margin of error: ± 5.8%
Sample size: 283

February 20–23, 2014Mike Huckabee
17%		Rand Paul
14%		Jeb Bush
13%		Chris Christie 10%, Ted Cruz 10%, Paul Ryan 9%, Bobby Jindal 7%, Scott Walker 7%, Marco Rubio 3%, Other/Undecided 11%
Polls in 2013-2012
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Cygnal [168]

Margin of error: ± 2.37%
Sample size: 1,705

July 10–12, 2013Marco Rubio
11.4%		Rand Paul
10.5%		Paul Ryan
9.3%		Jeb Bush 8.7%, Chris Christie 7.7%, Rick Santorum 6.7%, Ted Cruz 6.1%, Scott Walker 2.1%, Bobby Jindal 1.3%, Undecided 36.3%
Public Policy Polling [169]

Margin of error: ± 6.2%
Sample size: 250

July 5–7, 2013Rand Paul
18%		Chris Christie
16%		Paul Ryan
15%		Jeb Bush 14%, Marco Rubio 11%, Ted Cruz 10%, Rick Santorum 6%, Bobby Jindal 2%, Susana Martinez 1%, Other/Undecided 7%
Public Policy Polling [170]

Margin of error: ± 5.4%
Sample size: 326

Feb. 1–3, 2013Mike Huckabee
16%		Marco Rubio
16%		Rand Paul
15%		Jeb Bush 14%, Chris Christie 12%, Paul Ryan 10%, Susana Martinez 4%, Bobby Jindal 3%, Rick Perry 3%, Someone Else/Undecided 7%
Public Policy Polling [171]

Margin of error: 5.1%
Sample size: 363

July 12–15, 2012Rick Santorum
17%		Mike Huckabee
17%		Chris Christie
16%		Rand Paul 11%, Marco Rubio 10%, Jeb Bush 8%, Paul Ryan 6%, Sarah Palin 4%, Scott Walker 4%, Someone else/Not sure 8%
Public Policy Polling [172]

Margin of error: 5.3%
Sample size: 346

May 3–5, 2012Rick Santorum
16%		Mike Huckabee
16%		Chris Christie
15%		Jeb Bush 10%, Sarah Palin 10%, Rand Paul 9%, Marco Rubio 7%, Paul Ryan 5% Someone else/Not sure 10%

Results

Iowa Republican precinct caucuses, February 1, 2016
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Ted Cruz 51,66627.64%808
Donald Trump 45,42724.3%707
Marco Rubio 43,16523.12%707
Ben Carson 17,3959.3%303
Rand Paul 8,4814.54%101
Jeb Bush 5,2382.8%101
Carly Fiorina 3,4851.86%101
John Kasich 3,4741.86%101
Mike Huckabee 3,3451.79%101
Chris Christie 3,2841.76%000
Rick Santorum 1,7830.95%000
Other1170.06%000
Jim Gilmore 120.01%000
Unprojected delegates:000
Total:186,932100.00%30030
Source: "Iowa". cnn.com. Retrieved November 23, 2016.

Results by County

2016 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucuses (By County) [173]
CountyTed CruzDonald TrumpMarco RubioBen CarsonRand PaulJeb BushCarly FiorinaJohn KasichMike HuckabeeAll Other Candidates [a] Total
#%#%#%#%#%#%#%#%#%#%
Adair 10425.55%10425.55%8019.66%6114.99%122.95%40.98%163.93%20.49%112.70%133.20%407
Adams 8129.67%6824.91%4717.22%3010.99%82.93%72.56%165.86%103.66%31.10%31.10%273
Allamakee 18326.64%19328.09%13119.07%7711.21%162.33%111.60%547.86%20.29%91.31%111.60%687
Appanoose 26932.02%29234.76%9010.71%9210.95%202.38%131.55%91.07%40.48%445.24%70.84%840
Audubon 13536.10%9926.47%5614.97%338.82%112.94%102.67%41.07%51.34%205.35%10.27%374
Benton 59636.45%41025.08%24615.05%17110.46%724.40%110.67%352.14%271.65%342.08%332.02%1,635
Black Hawk 1,58526.82%1,36023.01%1,55126.24%4978.41%3576.04%1783.01%1312.22%530.90%721.22%1262.13%5,910
Boone 56632.20%41223.44%32018.20%17710.07%965.46%311.76%70.40%221.25%673.81%603.42%1,758
Bremer 40827.38%34723.29%38926.11%1348.99%463.09%382.55%241.61%503.36%191.28%352.35%1,490
Buchanan 30836.80%21725.93%11013.14%829.80%354.18%141.67%313.70%60.72%151.79%192.27%837
Buena Vista 30930.62%25124.88%22121.90%979.61%262.58%232.28%201.98%150.49%181.78%292.87%1,009
Butler 33236.48%22024.18%14515.93%10811.87%323.52%242.64%181.98%30.33%212.31%70.77%910
Calhoun 15928.55%13624.42%12121.72%376.64%203.59%101.80%81.44%71.26%356.28%244.31%557
Carroll 25624.95%29829.04%23022.42%696.73%313.02%605.85%444.29%141.36%111.07%131.27%1,026
Cass 22524.35%26228.35%17619.05%14215.37%90.97%343.68%101.08%212.27%171.84%283.03%924
Cedar 31028.97%28126.26%24022.43%1009.35%434.02%171.59%191.78%262.43%131.21%211.96%1,070
Cerro Gordo 65528.17%59725.68%44619.18%1847.91%783.35%1195.12%421.81%291.25%391.68%1365.84%2,325
Cherokee 15718.71%24829.56%24328.96%11914.18%121.43%161.91%111.31%50.60%172.03%111.32%839
Chickasaw 16126.79%16627.62%14323.79%579.48%183.00%111.83%274.49%30.50%61.00%91.50%601
Clarke 15527.83%20236.27%8815.80%5610.05%152.69%122.15%91.62%30.54%81.44%91.62%557
Clay 29128.39%29228.49%14914.54%15515.12%282.73%161.56%80.78%313.02%252.44%302.93%1,025
Clayton 29835.22%24929.43%10912.88%677.92%293.43%263.07%263.07%111.30%172.01%141.65%846
Clinton 62126.93%70930.75%45919.90%1596.90%944.08%1064.60%703.04%411.78%150.65%321.39%2,306
Crawford 22632.33%21430.62%11416.31%639.01%121.72%121.72%243.43%81.14%71.00%192.72%699
Dallas 1,69123.22%1,51020.74%2,46933.91%4896.72%2763.79%2132.93%1331.83%1672.29%610.84%2732.75%7,282
Davis 16831.64%20538.61%376.97%387.16%254.71%101.88%10.19%10.19%387.16%81.51%531
Decatur 17334.81%12725.55%7314.69%8016.10%193.82%51.01%20.40%40.80%61.21%81.60%497
Delaware 31735.46%19822.15%17219.24%9210.29%273.02%192.13%525.82%20.22%70.78%80.90%894
Des Moines 61328.30%65930.42%45120.82%2129.79%994.57%190.88%170.78%200.92%311.43%452.08%2,166
Dickinson 26021.63%34228.45%28623.79%15913.23%342.83%463.83%121.00%272.25%151.75%211.25%1,202
Dubuque 82420.73%1,08727.35%1,06026.67%3849.66%2305.79%952.39%972.44%541.36%481.21%962.42%3,975
Emmet 14335.48%12230.27%4611.41%4912.16%112.73%40.99%81.99%40.99%102.48%61.49%403
Fayette 34134.10%24024.10%18018.00%14414.40%272.70%181.80%181.80%60.60%171.70%90.90%1,000
Floyd 30540.13%20026.32%10513.82%8310.92%101.32%233.03%81.05%91.18%81.05%91.18%761
Franklin 22535.83%15925.32%10516.72%629.87%233.66%181.98%50.80%40.64%233.66%40.64%628
Fremont 8720.42%18242.72%7718.08%409.39%112.58%102.35%00.00%61.41%20.47%112.58%426
Greene 16229.67%16430.04%7714.10%6211.36%142.56%254.58%20.37%61.10%142.56%203.66%546
Grundy 27228.75%19820.93%26127.59%737.72%323.38%262.75%101.27%40.42%505.29%202.12%946
Guthrie 21828.91%20827.59%11815.65%10714.19%283.71%162.12%182.39%20.27%233.05%162.12%754
Hamilton 27728.94%26928.11%15916.61%899.30%485.02%131.36%141.46%202.09%252.61%434.39%957
Hancock 38545.35%36018.85%13215.55%718.36%212.47%222.59%192.24%60.71%161.88%172.00%1,049
Hardin 41732.83%29523.23%22517.72%13810.87%453.54%191.50%251.97%120.94%312.44%634.96%1,270
Harrison 28227.67%31530.91%11210.99%22121.69%171.67%50.49%242.36%100.98%100.98%232.26%1,019
Henry 37931.27%27322.52%22818.81%18915.59%302.48%312.56%181.49%120.99%332.72%191.57%1,212
Howard 10628.88%11230.52%8924.25%267.08%51.36%195.18%30.82%00.00%51.36%20.54%367
Humboldt 16827.77%20433.72%11118.35%487.93%162.64%142.31%60.99%30.50%172.81%182.98%605
Ida 13525.62%13625.81%13525.62%438.16%71.33%81.52%326.07%30.57%81.52%203.74%527
Iowa 35334.17%24924.10%16315.78%10510.16%565.42%111.06%252.42%141.36%333.19%242.32%1,033
Jackson 26528.49%30632.90%16918.17%646.88%343.66%262.80%212.26%111.18%90.97%252.70%930
Jasper 81234.94%58325.09%41717.94%2078.91%1004.30%461.98%311.33%130.56%723.10%431.85%2,324
Jefferson 27031.69%22326.17%10412.21%556.46%677.86%172.00%111.29%252.93%515.99%293.40%852
Johnson 1,41319.55%1,39419.29%2,20730.54%5317.35%6919.56%2293.17%1912.64%2843.93%751.04%2122.93%7,227
Jones 36335.11%25824.95%16716.15%10710.35%323.09%252.42%353.38%60.58%60.58%353.38%1,034
Keokuk 21630.77%22031.34%11616.52%638.97%192.71%131.85%111.57%50.71%233.28%162.27%702
Kossuth 28530.10%22423.65%19020.06%15015.84%181.90%131.37%40.42%151.58%272.85%212.27%947
Lee 33425.30%40930.98%24918.86%15711.89%362.73%191.44%513.86%161.21%261.97%231.74%1,320
Linn 3,42229.43%2,34420.16%2,82524.29%1,0729.22%6996.01%2622.25%3022.60%2622.25%990.85%3412.93%11,628
Louisa 25735.50%26136.05%7610.50%446.08%263.59%141.93%50.69%50.69%314.28%50.69%724
Lucas 21336.16%15926.99%7913.41%6811.54%244.07%101.70%91.53%00.00%183.06%91.53%589
Lyon 43239.02%17315.63%22920.69%20618.61%141.26%110.99%100.90%60.54%30.27%232.08%1,107
Madison 45233.51%37327.65%25018.53%1077.93%513.78%221.63%211.56%110.82%342.52%282.07%1,349
Mahaska 66934.13%42121.48%36818.78%20910.66%693.52%402.04%371.89%80.41%492.50%904.59%1,960
Marion 1,01135.20%53918.77%60621.10%2729.47%1234.28%742.58%411.43%301.04%742.58%1023.55%2,872
Marshall 63027.07%60826.13%50221.57%2269.71%753.22%612.62%572.45%331.42%502.15%853.65%2,327
Mills 24421.77%30026.76%26523.64%18216.24%332.94%100.89%232.05%151.34%70.62%423.75%1,121
Mitchell 11424.20%12025.48%5611.89%6112.95%347.22%102.12%5511.68%30.64%112.34%71.49%471
Monona 18536.13%15630.47%9418.36%418.01%81.56%20.39%61.17%10.20%91.76%101.95%512
Monroe 19536.04%17031.42%9717.93%254.62%234.25%30.55%40.74%40.74%183.33%20.37%541
Montgomery 13323.29%11820.67%12421.72%8514.89%264.55%274.73%274.73%101.75%101.75%111.93%571
Muscatine 57623.86%72029.83%63526.30%1104.56%1315.43%532.20%431.78%451.86%391.62%622.57%2,414
O'Brien 34728.47%25621.00%28123.05%22018.05%191.56%171.39%100.82%60.49%453.69%181.48%1,219
Osceola 11334.56%7823.85%5617.13%4212.84%82.45%133.98%72.14%10.31%30.92%61.84%327
Page 24928.52%23226.58%15617.87%15717.98%131.49%252.86%80.92%121.37%91.03%121.37%873
Palo Alto 11025.46%11727.08%9421.76%409.26%153.47%143.24%92.08%51.16%173.94%112.55%432
Plymouth 53028.10%61832.77%37319.78%19510.34%341.80%442.33%191.01%221.17%140.74%371.97%1,886
Pocahontas 18738.72%11022.77%6513.46%7014.49%132.69%91.86%51.04%20.41%163.31%61.25%483
Polk 7,86425.29%6,76421.75%8,36526.90%2,2977.39%1,6335.25%1,4054.52%4201.35%7732.49%5651.82%1,0123.26%31,098
Pottawattamie 94221.54%1,50834.48%75017.15%54312.42%1563.57%701.60%801.83%1272.90%250.57%1723.93%4,373
Poweshiek 28228.69%25826.25%18318.62%767.73%636.41%383.87%141.42%181.83%303.05%212.13%983
Ringgold 8425.30%10631.93%5015.06%5215.66%20.60%164.82%30.90%00.00%144.22%51.50%332
Sac 18727.95%21231.69%8112.11%619.12%172.54%192.84%121.79%71.05%182.69%558.22%669
Scott 2,39624.58%2,46525.28%2,55326.19%5325.46%4864.99%3533.62%2192.25%4364.47%780.80%2312.37%9,749
Shelby 20727.79%20327.25%12917.32%10914.63%233.09%91.21%222.95%91.21%182.42%163.23%745
Sioux 1,52433.17%50210.93%1,46931.98%68614.93%1172.55%761.65%390.85%450.98%350.76%1012.20%4,594
Story 1,81524.09%1,15215.29%2,41532.05%6418.51%6298.35%2122.81%1171.55%1932.56%1231.63%2373.14%7,534
Tama 30731.23%35035.61%12312.51%838.44%272.75%121.22%101.02%121.22%333.36%262.65%983
Taylor 7419.58%14037.04%5213.76%6316.67%102.65%102.65%61.59%61.59%92.38%82.11%378
Union 20328.92%19427.64%13519.23%8712.39%101.42%121.71%162.28%71.00%283.99%101.42%702
Van Buren 19636.77%15128.33%6311.82%5610.51%71.31%30.56%00.00%10.19%519.57%50.94%533
Wapello 48929.30%59235.47%24214.50%1277.61%503.00%241.44%100.60%90.54%1036.17%231.38%1,669
Warren 1,12029.40%98225.78%78420.58%3749.82%1975.17%952.49%370.97%441.16%762.00%1002.63%3,809
Washington 54235.10%32921.31%22214.38%19412.56%1046.74%634.08%301.94%130.84%231.49%241.55%1,544
Wayne 17140.81%11427.21%5713.60%368.59%30.72%92.15%51.19%71.67%153.58%20.48%419
Webster 43226.65%43526.84%28617.64%1207.40%623.82%442.71%171.05%281.73%764.69%1217.46%1,621
Winnebago 18730.31%11518.64%12820.75%9114.75%223.57%243.89%71.13%20.32%274.38%142.27%617
Winneshiek 25124.04%27426.25%20819.92%15114.46%403.83%262.49%272.59%302.87%232.20%141.34%1,044
Woodbury 1,36727.04%1,60031.65%1,06521.07%3947.79%1412.79%851.68%1142.26%440.87%230.45%2224.39%5,055
Worth 11530.67%11330.13%5514.67%256.67%143.73%92.40%112.93%51.33%184.80%102.67%375
Wright 19033.81%12922.95%12422.06%5810.32%71.25%162.85%40.71%61.07%152.67%132.31%562
Totals51,66627.64%45,42924.30%43,22823.13%17,3949.31%8,4814.54%5,2382.80%3,4851.86%3,4741.86%3,3451.79%5,1922.78%186,932
Results of the Iowa Republican caucus, 2016 Cruz--40-50% Cruz--30-40% Cruz--20-30% Tied between Cruz and Trump Trump--20-30% Trump--30-40% Trump--40-50% Rubio--20-30% Rubio--30-40% Iowa Republican caucus, 2016.svg
Results of the Iowa Republican caucus, 2016
  Cruz—40-50%
  Cruz—30-40%
  Cruz—20-30%
  Tied between Cruz and Trump
  Trump—20-30%
  Trump—30-40%
  Trump—40-50%
  Rubio—20-30%
  Rubio—30-40%

Aftermath and Controversy

The caucus results led to immediate controversy when Ben Carson accused Cruz's campaign of employing dishonest tactics, specifically claiming that Cruz supporters falsely told caucus-goers that Carson had dropped out to convince them to switch their votes. [174]

Trump subsequently accused Cruz of "stealing" the Iowa caucuses through fraud, taking to social media to demand that Cruz be disqualified and the election results invalidated. [175] These accusations foreshadowed continued tensions between Cruz and Trump as the primary campaign progressed. According to an interview of Trump with Greta Van Susteren of On the Record, he said, “Everything about it was disgraceful. It was a fraud as far as I was concerned.” [176]

The results also had an immediate impact on the Republican field, as Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum suspended their campaigns in the days following the caucuses. [177] [178]

Geographic and Demographic Analysis

Exit polling revealed Cruz's victory was built on strong support from evangelical voters, who comprised 62% of caucus participants. He won 33% of evangelical voters, while also performing strongly in rural counties and areas with high evangelical populations. [179]

Trump's support was notably stronger in eastern Iowa and working-class areas, particularly along the Mississippi River. He performed best among first-time caucus participants and voters without college degrees. Rubio showed particular strength in suburban areas around Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, and other population centers, winning 28% of college graduates and performing well among late-deciding voters.

2016 Iowa Republican Caucuses by demographic subgroup (Edison entrance polling) [180]
Demographic subgroupCruzTrumpRubioCarson% of

total vote

Total vote27.624.323.19.390%
Gender
Men292525852%
Women2724211148%
Race/ethnicity
White 282423997%
Age
17–29 years old2719241012%
30–44 years old312222616%
45–64 years old2825241046%
65+ years old2726221027%
Education
College Graduate252128951%
Non-college 312817949%
Issue regarded as most important
Immigration 344410713%
Economy 182430927%
Terrorism 332126825%
Government spending 2719211132%
Area type
Urban 242328720%
Suburban 282225736%
Rural 2927181244%
Religion
Evangelical 3321211262%
Non-Evangelical192926538%

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Consists of the vote totals for all candidates that did not receive delegates, which are: Chris Christie, Rick Santorum, Jim Gilmore, and any other write-ins or candidates.

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  175. ↑ Tennery, Amy (February 3, 2016). "Trump accuses Cruz of stealing Iowa caucuses through 'fraud'". Reuters.
  176. ↑ "February 3, 2016". On the Record with Greta Van Susteren. February 3, 2016. Fox News. Everything about it was disgraceful. It was a fraud as far as I was concerned.
  177. ↑ Goldmacher, Shane; Isenstadt, Alex; Strauss, Daniel (February 3, 2016). "Rand Paul drops out of White House race". Politico.
  178. ↑ Bradner, Eric; Preston, Mark (February 1, 2016). "Mike Huckabee drops out of 2016 presidential race". CNN.
  179. ↑ "Iowa Entrance Polls". www.nytimes.com. Retrieved June 18, 2022.
  180. ↑ "Iowa Entrance Polls". www.nytimes.com. Retrieved June 18, 2022.
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