2016 United States presidential election in Tennessee

Last updated

2016 United States presidential election in Tennessee
Flag of Tennessee.svg
  2012 November 8, 2016 2020  
Turnout61.92% Increase2.svg [1] 0.06 pp
  Portrait of President-elect Donald Trump (cropped).jpg Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote110
Popular vote1,522,925870,695
Percentage60.72%34.72%

Tennessee Presidential Election Results 2016.svg
TN-16-pres-districts.svg
2016 TN Pres by State Senate district.svg
2016 TN Pres by State House district.svg
2016 Presidential election in Tennessee.svg

President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county. United States presidential election in Tennessee, 2016.svg
Treemap of the popular vote by county.

The 2016 United States presidential election in Tennessee was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 General Election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Tennessee voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting the Republican nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her running mate, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine.

Contents

On March 1, 2016, in the presidential primaries, Tennessee voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic and Republican parties' respective nominees for president. Registered members of each party only voted in their party's primary, while voters who were unaffiliated chose any one primary in which to vote.

Trump won the election in Tennessee with 60.7% of the vote. Clinton received 34.7% of the vote. [2] This is the first time since 1972 that either party has earned over 60% of the vote in Tennessee. Tennessee was one of eleven states won by Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 but lost by Hillary Clinton.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Hillary Clinton was challenged by Bernie Sanders, the only other major candidate remaining in the Democratic primaries. Clinton won the state, defeating Sanders by 33.6 points and earning 44 delegates while Sanders earned 23 delegates.

Popular vote share by county
Clinton
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
80-90%
Sanders
50-60% 2016 Tennessee Democratic Presidential Primary election by county.svg
Popular vote share by county
  Clinton
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Sanders
  •   50–60%
Tennessee Democratic primary, March 1, 2016
CandidatePopular voteEstimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Hillary Clinton 245,93066.07%44751
Bernie Sanders 120,80032.45%23023
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn)2,0250.54%
Uncommitted3,4670.93%011
Total372,222100%67875
Source: [3]

Republican primary

Donald Trump won the primary with a plurality, carrying 38.9% of the vote and all but one county, awarding him 33 delegates. [4]

Texas Senator Ted Cruz, came second with 24.7% of the vote and 16 delegates. Florida Senator Marco Rubio came third with 21.2% of the vote and 9 delegates, carrying only the county of Williamson. All other candidates did not receive any delegates. [5]

Popular vote share by county
Trump
20-30%
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
Rubio
30-40% 2016 TN GOP presidential primary.svg
Popular vote share by county
  Trump
  •   20–30%
      30–40%
      40–50%
      50–60%
  Rubio
  •   30–40%
Tennessee Republican primary, March 1, 2016
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump333,18038.94%33033
Ted Cruz211,47124.71%16016
Marco Rubio181,27421.18%909
Ben Carson64,9517.59%000
John Kasich45,3015.29%000
Jeb Bush (withdrawn)9,5511.12%000
Mike Huckabee (withdrawn)2,4150.28%000
Rand Paul (withdrawn)2,3500.27%000
Uncommitted1,8490.22%000
Chris Christie (withdrawn)1,2560.15%000
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn)7150.08%000
Rick Santorum (withdrawn)7100.08%000
Jim Gilmore (withdrawn)2670.03%000
Lindsey Graham (withdrawn)2530.03%000
George Pataki (withdrawn)1860.02%000
Unprojected delegates:000
Total:855,729100.00%58058
Source: The Green Papers

General election

Polling

Voting history

Tennessee has not voted for a Democratic presidential nominee since 1996. In 2012, Republican nominee Mitt Romney won the state by a margin of more than twenty points due to the unpopularity of the Obama administration in the conservative state. Typically Democrats do very well in the urban regions of Memphis and Nashville, while Republicans dominate the rural and suburban areas. Tennessee is considered a safe Republican state. In 2016, it stayed that way, with Trump winning the state with 60.7% of the vote.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Los Angeles Times [6] Safe RNovember 6, 2016
CNN [7] Safe RNovember 4, 2016
Cook Political Report [8] Safe RNovember 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com [9] Likely RNovember 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [10] Safe RNovember 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [11] Safe RNovember 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics [12] Likely RNovember 8, 2016
NBC [13] Likely RNovember 7, 2016

^Highest rating given

Results

2016 United States presidential election in Tennessee [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Donald Trump/Mike Pence 1,522,925 60.72%
Democratic Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 870,69534.72%
Independent Gary Johnson 70,3972.81%
Independent Jill Stein 15,9930.64%
Independent Evan McMullin (write-in)11,9910.48%
Independent Mike Smith7,2760.29%
Independent Rocky De La Fuente 4,0750.16%
Independent Alyson Kennedy 2,8770.12%
Write-in 1,7980.07%
Total votes2,508,027 100.00%

By county

CountyDonald Trump
Republican
Hillary Clinton
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Anderson 19,21264.30%9,01330.16%1,6565.54%10,19934.14%29,881
Bedford 11,48674.80%3,39522.11%4743.09%8,09152.69%15,355
Benton 4,71674.53%1,47423.29%1382.18%3,24251.24%6,328
Bledsoe 3,62277.66%89719.23%1453.11%2,72558.43%4,664
Blount 37,44371.72%12,10023.18%2,6655.10%25,34348.54%52,208
Bradley 29,76876.99%7,07018.28%1,8284.73%22,69858.71%38,666
Campbell 9,87078.76%2,24817.94%4143.30%7,62260.82%12,532
Cannon 4,00775.40%1,12721.21%1803.39%2,88054.19%5,314
Carroll 7,75674.69%2,32722.41%3012.90%5,42952.28%10,384
Carter 16,89880.15%3,45316.38%7333.47%13,44563.77%21,084
Cheatham 11,29770.94%3,87824.35%7494.71%7,41946.59%15,924
Chester 5,08178.09%1,24319.10%1832.81%3,83858.99%6,507
Claiborne 8,60280.09%1,83217.06%3062.85%6,77063.03%10,740
Clay 2,14173.32%70724.21%722.47%1,43449.11%2,920
Cocke 9,79180.74%1,98116.34%3542.92%7,81064.40%12,126
Coffee 14,41772.19%4,74323.75%8114.06%9,67448.44%19,971
Crockett 3,98273.78%1,30324.14%1122.08%2,67949.64%5,397
Cumberland 20,41377.44%5,20219.73%7452.83%15,21157.71%26,360
Davidson 84,55033.95%148,86459.77%15,6546.28%-64,314-25.82%249,068
Decatur 3,58878.14%89419.47%1102.39%2,69458.67%4,592
DeKalb 5,17174.35%1,56922.56%2153.09%3,60251.79%6,955
Dickson 13,23370.77%4,72225.25%7443.98%8,51145.52%18,699
Dyer 10,18076.33%2,81621.12%3402.55%7,36455.21%13,336
Fayette 13,05567.31%5,87430.29%4652.40%7,18137.02%19,394
Fentress 6,03882.34%1,10015.00%1952.66%4,93867.34%7,333
Franklin 11,53270.30%4,37426.66%4983.04%7,15843.64%16,404
Gibson 13,78670.53%5,25826.90%5032.57%8,52843.63%19,547
Giles 7,97071.56%2,91726.19%2502.25%5,05345.37%11,137
Grainger 6,62682.74%1,15414.41%2282.85%5,47268.33%8,008
Greene 18,56278.71%4,21617.88%8053.41%14,34660.83%23,583
Grundy 3,63676.34%99920.97%1282.69%2,63755.37%4,763
Hamblen 15,85776.63%4,07519.69%7603.68%11,78256.94%20,692
Hamilton 78,73355.29%55,31638.84%8,3595.87%23,41716.45%142,408
Hancock 1,84382.61%32214.43%662.96%1,52168.18%2,231
Hardeman 4,91953.05%4,18545.13%1691.82%7347.92%9,273
Hardin 8,01280.53%1,62216.30%3153.17%6,39064.23%9,949
Hawkins 16,64880.14%3,50716.88%6192.98%13,14163.26%20,774
Haywood 3,01344.09%3,71154.30%1101.61%-698-10.21%6,834
Henderson 8,13879.65%1,80017.62%2792.73%6,33862.03%10,217
Henry 9,50873.45%3,06323.66%3742.89%6,44549.79%12,945
Hickman 5,69572.89%1,82423.35%2943.76%3,87149.54%7,813
Houston 2,18268.88%86627.34%1203.78%1,31641.54%3,168
Humphreys 4,93068.92%1,96727.50%2563.58%2,96341.42%7,153
Jackson 3,23672.46%1,12925.28%1012.26%2,10747.18%4,466
Jefferson 14,77677.47%3,49418.32%8024.21%11,28259.15%19,072
Johnson 5,41082.23%98815.02%1812.75%4,42267.21%6,579
Knox 105,76758.53%62,87834.80%12,0526.67%42,88923.73%180,697
Lake 1,35768.88%57729.29%361.83%78039.59%1,970
Lauderdale 4,88460.39%3,05637.79%1471.82%1,82822.60%8,087
Lawrence 12,42079.28%2,82118.01%4252.71%9,59961.27%15,666
Lewis 3,58577.56%89019.26%1473.18%2,69558.30%4,622
Lincoln 10,39877.90%2,55419.13%3962.97%7,84458.77%13,348
Loudon 17,61075.29%4,91921.03%8623.68%12,69154.26%23,391
Macon 6,26383.46%1,07214.29%1692.25%5,19169.17%7,504
Madison 21,33555.97%15,44840.52%1,3373.51%5,88715.45%38,120
Marion 7,69670.85%2,83226.07%3343.08%4,86444.78%10,862
Marshall 8,18471.44%2,85224.90%4193.66%5,33246.54%11,455
Maury 23,79967.29%10,03828.38%1,5324.33%13,76138.91%35,369
McMinn 14,69178.33%3,51018.72%5542.95%11,18159.61%18,755
McNairy 7,84178.11%1,84818.41%3493.48%5,99359.70%10,038
Meigs 3,34277.36%85619.81%1222.83%2,48657.55%4,320
Monroe 13,37478.24%3,18618.64%5333.12%10,18859.60%17,093
Montgomery 32,34156.13%21,69937.66%3,5806.21%10,64218.47%57,620
Moore 2,32579.46%49616.95%1053.59%1,82962.51%2,926
Morgan 5,44181.15%1,05415.72%2103.13%4,38765.43%6,705
Obion 9,52677.77%2,42619.81%2972.42%7,10057.96%12,249
Overton 6,05973.63%1,94523.64%2252.73%4,11449.99%8,229
Perry 2,16775.90%59720.91%913.19%1,57054.99%2,855
Pickett 2,02177.28%53620.50%582.22%1,48556.78%2,615
Polk 5,09778.17%1,25219.20%1712.63%3,84558.97%6,520
Putnam 19,00269.83%6,85125.18%1,3594.99%12,15144.65%27,212
Rhea 8,66078.29%1,94217.56%4604.15%6,71860.73%11,062
Roane 15,88073.28%4,83722.32%9524.40%11,04350.96%21,669
Robertson 19,41071.59%6,63724.48%1,0663.93%12,77347.11%27,113
Rutherford 64,51560.05%36,70634.17%6,2155.78%27,80925.88%107,436
Scott 6,04484.85%93413.11%1452.04%5,11071.74%7,123
Sequatchie 4,44177.99%1,05318.49%2003.52%3,38859.50%5,694
Sevier 28,62978.84%6,29717.34%1,3863.82%22,33261.50%36,312
Shelby 116,34434.48%208,99261.95%12,0473.57%-92,648-27.47%337,383
Smith 5,49473.88%1,68922.71%2533.41%3,80551.17%7,436
Stewart 3,86472.92%1,22223.06%2134.02%2,64249.86%5,299
Sullivan 46,97975.43%12,57820.20%2,7214.37%34,40155.23%62,278
Sumner 50,12970.11%18,16125.40%3,2154.49%31,96844.71%71,505
Tipton 16,91072.02%5,78524.64%7863.34%11,12547.38%23,481
Trousdale 2,10366.55%94629.94%1113.51%1,15736.61%3,160
Unicoi 5,67178.82%1,26217.54%2623.64%4,40961.28%7,195
Union 5,05380.89%1,01216.20%1822.91%4,04164.69%6,247
Van Buren 1,82075.24%53922.28%602.48%1,28152.96%2,419
Warren 9,54070.09%3,53525.97%5373.94%6,00544.12%13,612
Washington 34,25268.85%13,02426.18%2,4744.97%21,22842.67%49,750
Wayne 5,03685.98%71712.24%1041.78%4,31973.74%5,857
Weakley 9,00873.93%2,77222.75%4043.32%6,23651.18%12,184
White 7,67178.08%1,84518.78%3093.14%5,82659.30%9,825
Williamson 68,21264.19%31,01329.18%7,0466.63%37,19935.01%106,271
Wilson 39,40669.46%14,38525.36%2,9435.18%25,02144.10%56,734
Totals1,522,92560.72%870,69534.72%114,4074.56%652,23026.00%2,508,027
Tennessee County Swings in the 2016 United States Presidential Election.svg
Tennessee County Flips 2016.svg

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Trump won seven of nine congressional districts. [15]

DistrictTrumpClintonRepresentative
1st 76.45%19.61% Phil Roe
2nd 64.71%29.53% Jimmy Duncan
3rd 65.07%30.05% Chuck Fleischmann
4th 68.19%27.27% Scott DesJarlais
5th 37.87%56.06% Jim Cooper
6th 72.34%23.58% Diane Black
7th 67.05%28.03% Marsha Blackburn
8th 66.06%30.43% Stephen Fincher
David Kustoff
9th 20.03%76.93% Steve Cohen

Analysis

A map of the most college-educated counties in the United States Most college-educated counties in the United States.jpg
A map of the most college-educated counties in the United States

A Southern state in the heart of the Bible Belt, no Democrat has won Tennessee's electoral votes since Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas, who shared the ticket with favorite son Al Gore, in 1996, nor has it been contested at the presidential level since 2000, when Gore narrowly lost his home state by less than 4 points. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win at least 40% of the state vote was Barack Obama in 2008, and Republicans have occupied all statewide offices in Tennessee since 2011.

Despite losing the state, Clinton made large gains in Williamson County, Tennessee (home to Franklin, Tennessee), the most highly-educated and wealthiest county in the state. The county is also one of the most highly-educated counties in the country, with over 60% of adult residents having a Bachelor's degree (see the map). The county remained very red, giving Trump 64% of the vote, but shifted leftward by 11%. [16] Clinton also gained in Davidson County, Tennessee (home to Nashville, Tennessee) and Knox County, Tennessee (home to Knoxville, Tennessee).

Winning Tennessee by 652,230 votes, Donald Trump achieved his second-largest margin of victory by vote count nationwide, surpassed only by the 807,179-vote margin in Texas. Trump significantly outperformed previous Republican candidates in rural areas, particularly in Appalachia and the rural regions of Middle and West Tennessee. Notably, Trump flipped rural Hardeman County, winning it by 734 votes, marking the first time since 1988 that the county voted for a Republican in a presidential race since. This marked the first presidential election since 1972 in which a nominee garnered over 60% of Tennessee's vote.

See also

References

  1. "Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2016". Tennessee Secretary of State. November 8, 2016. Retrieved February 28, 2023.
  2. "Tennessee Election Results 2016 – The New York Times". The New York Times . Archived from the original on July 17, 2017. Retrieved July 26, 2017.
  3. The Green Papers
  4. "Tennessee Primary Election Results 2016". The New York Times. September 29, 2016. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved February 12, 2024.
  5. "Tennessee Primary Election Results 2016: President Live Map by County, Real-Time Voting Updates". Election Hub. Retrieved February 12, 2024.[ dead link ]
  6. "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times . November 6, 2016. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  7. Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN . Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  8. "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report . November 7, 2016. Archived from the original on February 7, 2019. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  9. "2016 Predicted Electoral Map". Electoral-vote.com . Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  10. "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  11. Sabato, Larry (November 7, 2016). "The Crystal Ball's 2016 Electoral College ratings". University of Virginia Center for Politics . Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  12. "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  13. Todd, Chuck (November 7, 2016). "NBC's final battleground map shows a lead for Clinton". NBC News . Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  14. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on December 15, 2016. Retrieved December 15, 2016.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  15. "DRA 2020 TN 2016 CD results". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved December 12, 2024.
  16. Silver, Nate (November 22, 2016). "Education, Not Income, Predicted Who Would Vote For Trump". FiveThirtyEight.