2016 United States Senate election in Washington

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2016 United States Senate election in Washington
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Nominee Patty Murray Chris Vance
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote1,913,9791,329,338
Percentage58.83%40.86%
2016 United States Senate election in Washington results map by county.svg
WA-2016-sen-districts.svg
WA Senate 2016.svg
Murray:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Vance:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     50%     No data
U.S. senator before election

Patty Murray
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Patty Murray
Democratic

The 2016 United States Senate election in Washington was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Washington. Incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray ran for re-election to a fifth term, [1] and won by a significant margin, winning 59% of the vote, to Republican Chris Vance's 41%.

Contents

The election took place concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Under Washington's nonpartisan blanket primary law, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party. In the August 2 primary, voters had the choice to vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. The top two finishers—regardless of party—advance to the general election in November, even if a candidate manages to receive a majority of the votes cast in the primary election. California is the only other state with this system, a so-called "top two primary" (Louisiana has a similar "jungle primary", but there is no general election if one candidate receives 50% plus one vote of all votes cast in the primary).

As of 2024, this is the last time a Democrat running statewide for federal office has won Grays Harbor and Mason Counties.

Primary election

Democratic Party

Declared

  • Thor Amundson [2]
  • Phil Cornell, retired communications technician [3]
  • Patty Murray, incumbent U.S. Senator
  • Mohammed Said [2]

Republican Party

Declared

Declined

Third party and independent candidates

Declared

  • Pano Churchill (Lincoln Caucus) [2]
  • Ted Cummings (independent) [2]
  • Zach Haller (independent) [2]
  • Chuck Jackson (independent) [2]
  • Donna Rae Lands (Conservative) [2]
  • Mike Luke (Libertarian) [2]
  • Jeremy Teuton (System Reboot) [2]
  • Alex Tsimerman (StandUpAmerica) [2]
  • Sam Wright (Human Rights) [2]

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Murray--30-40% Murray--40-50% Murray--50-60% Murray--60-70% Vance--30-40% Vance--40-50% 2016WASENprimary.svg
Results by county:
  Murray—30–40%
  Murray—40–50%
  Murray—50–60%
  Murray—60–70%
  Vance—30–40%
  Vance—40–50%
Blanket primary election results [11]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Patty Murray (incumbent) 745,421 53.82%
Republican Chris Vance 381,004 27.51%
Republican Eric John Makus57,8254.18%
Democratic Phil Cornell46,4603.35%
Republican Scott Nazarino41,5423.00%
Libertarian Mike Luke20,9881.52%
Democratic Mohammad Said13,3620.96%
Independent Donna Rae Lands11,4720.83%
Independent Ted Cummings11,0280.80%
Independent Sam Wright10,7510.78%
Republican Uncle Mover8,5690.62%
Independent Jeremy Teuton7,9910.58%
Democratic Thor Amundson7,9060.57%
Independent Chuck Jackson6,3180.46%
Independent Pano Churchill5,1500.37%
Independent Zach Haller5,0920.37%
Independent Alex Tsimerman4,1170.30%
Total votes1,384,996 100.00%

General election

Debates

DatesLocationMurrayVanceLink
October 16, 2016 Seattle, Washington ParticipantParticipant [12]
October 23, 2016 Redmond, Washington ParticipantParticipant [13]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [14] Safe DNovember 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [15] Safe DNovember 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [16] Safe DNovember 3, 2016
Daily Kos [17] Safe DNovember 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics [18] Safe DNovember 7, 2016

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Patty
Murray (D)		Chris
Vance (R)		OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey [19] November 1–7, 20161,451± 4.6%59%37%—4%
Insights West [20] November 4–6, 2016402± 4.9%53%37%—11%
SurveyMonkey [21] October 31–November 6, 20161,292± 4.6%59%37%—4%
SurveyMonkey [22] October 28–November 3, 2016944± 4.6%61%36%—3%
SurveyUSA [23] October 31–November 2, 2016667± 3.9%53%41%—6%
SurveyMonkey [24] October 27–November 2, 2016807± 4.6%61%36%—3%
SurveyMonkey [25] October 26–November 1, 2016698± 4.6%61%36%—3%
SurveyMonkey [26] October 25–31, 2016745± 4.6%61%36%—3%
Elway Poll [27] October 20–22, 2016502± 4.5%58%34%—8%
KCTS 9/YouGov [28] October 6–13, 2016750± 4.4%55%39%—16%
Strategies 360/KOMO News [29] September 29–October 3, 2016500± 4.4%57%36%—6%
Emerson College [30] September 25–26, 2016700± 3.6%48%41%3%8%
Insights West [31] September 12–14, 2016505± 4.4%46%25%2%27%
Elway Poll [32] August 9–13, 2016500± 4.5%52%34%—14%
Elway Poll [33] April 14–17, 2016503± 3.5%50%32%—18%
Elway Poll [34] October 13–15, 2015500± 4.5%44%23%—33%
Hypothetical polling

with Rob McKenna

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Patty
Murray (D)		Rob
McKenna (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [35] May 14–17, 2015879± 3.3%46%41%12%

with Dave Reichert

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Patty
Murray (D)		Dave
Reichert (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [35] May 14–17, 2015879± 3.3%48%37%15%

with Jaime Herrera Beutler

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Patty
Murray (D)		Jaime
Herrera
Beutler (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [35] May 14–17, 2015879± 3.3%47%37%17%

with Cathy McMorris Rodgers

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Patty
Murray (D)		Cathy
McMorris
Rodgers (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [35] May 14–17, 2015879± 3.3%48%35%17%

Results

At 1,913,979 votes, Murray made history by receiving the most votes in a United States Senate election in Washington state.

United States Senate election in Washington, 2016 [36]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Patty Murray (incumbent) 1,913,979 58.83% +6.75%
Republican Chris Vance 1,329,33840.86%−6.51%
Write-in 10,0710.31%-0.24%
Total votes3,253,388 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Murray won 7 of 10 congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican. [37]

DistrictMurrayVanceRepresentative
1st 56.25%43.75% Suzan DelBene
2nd 61.31%38.69% Rick Larsen
3rd 49.46%50.54% Jaime Herrera Beutler
4th 44.13%55.87% Dan Newhouse
5th 47.84%52.16% Cathy McMorris Rodgers
6th 58.15%41.85% Derek Kilmer
7th 82.62%17.38% Jim McDermott
Pramila Jayapal
8th 51.67%48.33% Dave Reichert
9th 72.08%27.92% Adam Smith
10th 57.71%42.29% Denny Heck

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References

  1. ↑ Brunner, Jim (February 9, 2014). "Patty Murray to seek fifth Senate term in 2016". The Seattle Times. Retrieved October 16, 2014.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Camden, Jim (May 23, 2016). "Final list of candidates in the August primary". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved May 24, 2016.
  3. ↑ http://www.philcornell4ussenate.org Archived May 17, 2016, at the Wayback Machine Phil Cornell (D) for Senate
  4. ↑ Pathé, Simone (September 8, 2015). "Former Washington GOP Chairman to Challenge Patty Murray". Roll Call . Archived from the original on October 26, 2015. Retrieved September 8, 2015.
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 Pathe, Simone (May 8, 2015). "GOP Searches for Patty Murray Challenger". Roll Call . Archived from the original on May 9, 2015. Retrieved May 8, 2015.
  6. ↑ Brunner, Jim (May 14, 2015). "Port Commissioner Bill Bryant announces run for governor". The Seattle Times . Retrieved May 14, 2015.
  7. 1 2 "Washington Voters Grow Further In Support of Gay Marriage, Marijuana, Background Checks" (PDF) (Press release). Public Policy Polling. May 20, 2015. Retrieved February 19, 2016.
  8. ↑ Rosenthal, Brian (February 19, 2013). "Former AG McKenna joins law firm". Yakima Herald. Retrieved March 4, 2013.
  9. ↑ Joseph, Cameron (August 9, 2013). "Rep. Reichert 'thinking about' run for Senate, governor in Washington". The Hill. Retrieved October 16, 2014.
  10. ↑ Brunner, Jim (October 16, 2015). "Dave Reichert won't run against Jay Inslee for governor". The Seattle Times. Retrieved November 1, 2015.
  11. ↑ "August 2, 2016 Primary Results - U.S. Senator". Washington Secretary of State. Archived from the original on August 22, 2016. Retrieved August 22, 2016.
  12. ↑ Full debate - C-SPAN
  13. ↑ Full debate - C-SPAN
  14. ↑ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
  15. ↑ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  16. ↑ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  17. ↑ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
  18. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
  19. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  20. ↑ Insights West [usurped]
  21. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  22. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  23. ↑ SurveyUSA
  24. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  25. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  26. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  27. ↑ Elway Poll
  28. ↑ KCTS 9/YouGov Archived October 27, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  29. ↑ Strategies 360/KOMO News
  30. ↑ Emerson College
  31. ↑ Insights West [usurped]
  32. ↑ Elway Poll
  33. ↑ Elway Poll
  34. ↑ Elway Poll
  35. 1 2 3 4 Public Policy Polling
  36. ↑ "November 8, 2016 General Election Results". Washington Secretary of State. Retrieved December 3, 2016.
  37. ↑ Results (PDF). wei.sos.wa.gov (Report). Archived from the original (PDF) on June 30, 2018.

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