2016 United States Senate election in Washington

2016 United States Senate election in Washington

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Nominee Patty Murray Chris Vance Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 1,913,979 1,329,338 Percentage 59.01% 40.99%

County results Congressional district results Precinct results Murray:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90% Vance:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90% Tie:     50%     No data

U.S. senator before election Patty Murray Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Patty Murray Democratic

The 2016 United States Senate election in Washington was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Washington. Incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray ran for re-election to a fifth term, ^[1] and won by a significant margin, winning 59% of the vote, to Republican Chris Vance's 41%.

The election took place concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Under Washington's nonpartisan blanket primary law, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party. In the August 2 primary, voters had the choice to vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. The top two finishers—regardless of party—would advance to the general election in November, even if a candidate managed to receive a majority of the votes cast in the primary election. California is the only other state with this system, a so-called "top two primary" (Louisiana has a similar "jungle primary", but there is no general election if one candidate receives 50% plus one vote of all votes cast in the primary).

As of 2024, this is the last time a Democrat running statewide for federal office has won Grays Harbor and Mason counties.

Primary election

Democratic Party

Declared

• Thor Amundson ^[2]
• Phil Cornell, retired communications technician ^[3]
• Patty Murray, incumbent U.S. senator
• Mohammed Said ^[2]

Republican Party

Declared

• Eric John Makus ^[2]
• Uncle Mover ^[2]
• Scott Nazarino ^[2]
• Chris Vance, former state representative, former member of the King County Council, and former chair of the Washington State Republican Party ^[4]

Declined

• Bill Bryant, Seattle Port Commissioner (running for governor) ^{[5] [6]}
• Jaime Herrera Beutler, U.S. representative (running for re-election) ^[7]
• Andy Hill, state senator ^[5]
• Steve Litzow, state senator (running for re-election) ^[5]
• Rob McKenna, former attorney general of Washington and nominee for governor in 2012 ^[8]
• Cathy McMorris Rodgers, U.S. representative (running for re-election) ^[7]
• Dave Reichert, U.S. representative (running for re-election) ^{[5] [9] [10]}
• Dino Rossi, former state senator, nominee for governor of Washington in 2004 and 2008, and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2010 ^[5]

Third party and independent candidates

Declared

• Pano Churchill (Lincoln Caucus) ^[2]
• Ted Cummings (independent) ^[2]
• Zach Haller (independent) ^[2]
• Chuck Jackson (independent) ^[2]
• Donna Rae Lands (Conservative) ^[2]
• Mike Luke (Libertarian) ^[2]
• Jeremy Teuton (System Reboot) ^[2]
• Alex Tsimerman (StandUpAmerica) ^[2]
• Sam Wright (Human Rights) ^[2]

Results

Results by county:

  Murray—30–40%

  Murray—40–50%

  Murray—50–60%

  Murray—60–70%

  Vance—30–40%

  Vance—40–50%

Blanket primary election results ^[11]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Patty Murray (incumbent)	745,421	53.82%
	Republican	Chris Vance	381,004	27.51%
	Republican	Eric John Makus	57,825	4.18%
	Democratic	Phil Cornell	46,460	3.35%
	Republican	Scott Nazarino	41,542	3.00%
	Libertarian	Mike Luke	20,988	1.52%
	Democratic	Mohammad Said	13,362	0.96%
	Independent	Donna Rae Lands	11,472	0.83%
	Independent	Ted Cummings	11,028	0.80%
	Independent	Sam Wright	10,751	0.78%
	Republican	Uncle Mover	8,569	0.62%
	Independent	Jeremy Teuton	7,991	0.58%
	Democratic	Thor Amundson	7,906	0.57%
	Independent	Chuck Jackson	6,318	0.46%
	Independent	Pano Churchill	5,150	0.37%
	Independent	Zach Haller	5,092	0.37%
	Independent	Alex Tsimerman	4,117	0.30%
Total votes			1,384,996	100.00%

General election

Debates

Dates	Location	Murray	Vance	Link
October 16, 2016	Seattle, Washington	Participant	Participant	[12]
October 23, 2016	Redmond, Washington	Participant	Participant	[13]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [14]	Safe D	November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [15]	Safe D	November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [16]	Safe D	November 3, 2016
Daily Kos [17]	Safe D	November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics [18]	Safe D	November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Patty Murray (D)	Chris Vance (R)	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey [19]	November 1–7, 2016	1,451	± 4.6%	59%	37%	—	4%
Insights West [20]	November 4–6, 2016	402	± 4.9%	53%	37%	—	11%
SurveyMonkey [21]	October 31–November 6, 2016	1,292	± 4.6%	59%	37%	—	4%
SurveyMonkey [22]	October 28–November 3, 2016	944	± 4.6%	61%	36%	—	3%
SurveyUSA [23]	October 31–November 2, 2016	667	± 3.9%	53%	41%	—	6%
SurveyMonkey [24]	October 27–November 2, 2016	807	± 4.6%	61%	36%	—	3%
SurveyMonkey [25]	October 26–November 1, 2016	698	± 4.6%	61%	36%	—	3%
SurveyMonkey [26]	October 25–31, 2016	745	± 4.6%	61%	36%	—	3%
Elway Poll [27]	October 20–22, 2016	502	± 4.5%	58%	34%	—	8%
KCTS 9/YouGov [28]	October 6–13, 2016	750	± 4.4%	55%	39%	—	16%
Strategies 360/KOMO News [29]	September 29–October 3, 2016	500	± 4.4%	57%	36%	—	6%
Emerson College [30]	September 25–26, 2016	700	± 3.6%	48%	41%	3%	8%
Insights West [31]	September 12–14, 2016	505	± 4.4%	46%	25%	2%	27%
Elway Poll [32]	August 9–13, 2016	500	± 4.5%	52%	34%	—	14%
Elway Poll [33]	April 14–17, 2016	503	± 3.5%	50%	32%	—	18%
Elway Poll [34]	October 13–15, 2015	500	± 4.5%	44%	23%	—	33%

Hypothetical polling

with Rob McKenna

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Patty Murray (D)	Rob McKenna (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling [35]	May 14–17, 2015	879	± 3.3%	46%	41%	12%

with Dave Reichert

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Patty Murray (D)	Dave Reichert (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling [35]	May 14–17, 2015	879	± 3.3%	48%	37%	15%

with Jaime Herrera Beutler

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Patty Murray (D)	Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling [35]	May 14–17, 2015	879	± 3.3%	47%	37%	17%

with Cathy McMorris Rodgers

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Patty Murray (D)	Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling [35]	May 14–17, 2015	879	± 3.3%	48%	35%	17%

Results

United States Senate election in Washington, 2016 ^[36]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Patty Murray (incumbent)	1,913,979	59.01%	+6.65%
	Republican	Chris Vance	1,329,338	40.99%	−6.65%
Total votes			3,243,317	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

By county

By county

County [37] Patty Murray Democratic Chris Vance Republican Total % # % # Adams 39.75% 1,859 60.25% 2,818 4,677 Asotin 43.59% 4,248 56.41% 5,497 9,745 Benton 43.47% 35,680 56.53% 46,397 82,077 Chelan 46.21% 15,586 53.79% 18,146 33,732 Clallam 52.02% 20,549 47.98% 18,955 39,504 Clark 51.32% 102,922 48.68% 97,637 200,559 Columbia 38.94% 854 61.06% 1,339 2,193 Cowlitz 49.84% 22,888 50.16% 23,031 45,919 Douglas 40.38% 6,322 59.62% 9,333 15,655 Ferry 42.00% 1,520 58.00% 2,099 3,619 Franklin 44.93% 10,766 55.07% 13,197 23,963 Garfield 38.66% 486 61.34% 771 1,257 Grant 35.95% 10,329 64.05% 18,404 28,733 Grays Harbor 53.37% 15,433 46.63% 13,483 28,916 Island 54.53% 23,695 45.47% 19,761 43,456 Jefferson 68.75% 14,098 31.25% 6,408 20,506 King 72.70% 728,113 27.30% 273,410 1,001,523 Kitsap 56.73% 71,784 43.27% 54,746 126,530 Kittitas 46.18% 8,830 53.82% 10,292 19,122 Klickitat 47.36% 5,121 52.64% 5,692 10,813 Lewis 38.36% 13,266 61.64% 21,319 34,585 Lincoln 33.62% 1,943 66.38% 3,837 5,780 Mason 52.05% 14,848 47.95% 13,677 28,525 Okanogan 46.91% 8,095 53.09% 9,160 17,255 Pacific 55.26% 5,951 44.74% 4,819 10,770 Pend Oreille 40.40% 2,775 59.60% 4,093 6,868 Pierce 55.44% 196,171 44.56% 157,644 353,815 San Juan 71.59% 7,789 28.41% 3,091 10,880 Skagit 53.47% 30,572 46.53% 26,600 57,172 Skamania 47.72% 2,688 52.28% 2,945 5,633 Snohomish 57.65% 201,915 42.35% 148,325 350,240 Spokane 49.25% 113,717 50.75% 117,197 230,914 Stevens 35.47% 8,150 64.53% 14,830 22,980 Thurston 59.76% 78,158 40.24% 52,623 130,781 Wahkiakum 48.12% 1,129 51.88% 1,217 2,346 Walla Walla 49.37% 12,645 50.63% 12,969 25,614 Whatcom 59.44% 65,830 40.56% 44,924 110,754 Whitman 54.23% 9,527 45.77% 8,040 17,567 Yakima 48.16% 37,727 51.84% 40,612 78,339 Total 59.01% 1,913,979 40.99% 1,329,338 3,243,317 Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Clallam (largest city: Port Angeles) Clark (Largest city: Vancouver) Island (largest city: Oak Harbor) Mason (largest city: Shelton) Pierce (largest city: Tacoma) Skagit (largest city: Mount Vernon) Whitman (Largest city: Pullman)

Swing by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +>15%
•   Democratic — +12.5-15%
•   Democratic — +10-12.5%
•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5–5%
•   Democratic — +0–2.5%

Trend relative to the state by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +10-12.5%
•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0–2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5–5%
•   Republican — +5–7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%

County flips

Legend

• Democratic   Hold   Gain from Republican

  Republican   Hold

By congressional district

Murray won seven of ten congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican. ^[36]

District	Murray	Vance	Representative
1st	56.25%	43.75%	Suzan DelBene
2nd	61.31%	38.69%	Rick Larsen
3rd	49.46%	50.54%	Jaime Herrera Beutler
4th	44.13%	55.87%	Dan Newhouse
5th	47.84%	52.16%	Cathy McMorris Rodgers
6th	58.15%	41.85%	Derek Kilmer
7th	82.62%	17.38%	Jim McDermott
			Pramila Jayapal
8th	51.67%	48.33%	Dave Reichert
9th	72.08%	27.92%	Adam Smith
10th	57.71%	42.29%	Denny Heck

See also

• 2016 United States Senate elections

References

1. Brunner, Jim (February 9, 2014). "Patty Murray to seek fifth Senate term in 2016". The Seattle Times. Retrieved October 16, 2014.
2. Camden, Jim (May 23, 2016). "Final list of candidates in the August primary". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved May 24, 2016.
3. http://www.philcornell4ussenate.org Archived May 17, 2016, at the Wayback Machine Phil Cornell (D) for Senate
4. Pathé, Simone (September 8, 2015). "Former Washington GOP Chairman to Challenge Patty Murray". Roll Call . Archived from the original on October 26, 2015. Retrieved September 8, 2015.
5. Pathe, Simone (May 8, 2015). "GOP Searches for Patty Murray Challenger". Roll Call . Archived from the original on May 9, 2015. Retrieved May 8, 2015.
6. Brunner, Jim (May 14, 2015). "Port Commissioner Bill Bryant announces run for governor". The Seattle Times . Retrieved May 14, 2015.
7. "Washington Voters Grow Further In Support of Gay Marriage, Marijuana, Background Checks" (PDF) (Press release). Public Policy Polling. May 20, 2015. Retrieved February 19, 2016.
8. Rosenthal, Brian (February 19, 2013). "Former AG McKenna joins law firm". Yakima Herald. Retrieved March 4, 2013.
9. Joseph, Cameron (August 9, 2013). "Rep. Reichert 'thinking about' run for Senate, governor in Washington". The Hill. Retrieved October 16, 2014.
10. Brunner, Jim (October 16, 2015). "Dave Reichert won't run against Jay Inslee for governor". The Seattle Times. Retrieved November 1, 2015.
11. "August 2, 2016 Primary Results - U.S. Senator". Washington Secretary of State. Archived from the original on August 22, 2016. Retrieved August 22, 2016.
12. Full debate - C-SPAN
13. Full debate - C-SPAN
14. "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
15. "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
16. "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
17. "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
18. "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
19. SurveyMonkey
20. Insights West ^{[ usurped ]}
21. SurveyMonkey
22. SurveyMonkey
23. SurveyUSA
24. SurveyMonkey
25. SurveyMonkey
26. SurveyMonkey
27. Elway Poll
28. KCTS 9/YouGov Archived October 27, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
29. Strategies 360/KOMO News
30. Emerson College
31. Insights West ^{[ usurped ]}
32. Elway Poll
33. Elway Poll
34. Elway Poll
35. Public Policy Polling
36. "2016 General Data". sos.wa.gov. Archived from the original on March 15, 2025.
37. Wyman, Kim (November 8, 2016). "U.S. Senator - County Results". Secretary of State of Washington . Archived from the original on June 27, 2025. Retrieved August 7, 2025.

External links

Official campaign websites (archived)

• Patty Murray (D) for Senate
• Chris Vance (R) for Senate ^{[ usurped ]}