2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

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2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania
Flag of Pennsylvania.svg
  2012 November 8, 2016 2020  
  Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote200
Popular vote2,970,7332,926,441
Percentage48.18%47.46%

Pennsylvania Presidential Election Results 2016.svg
2016PApresidentcongressionaldistrict.svg
Pennsylvania Presidential Results 2016 by Municipality.svg
PA President 2016.svg

President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county. United States presidential election in Pennsylvania, 2016.svg
Treemap of the popular vote by county.

The 2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States elections in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated. Pennsylvania voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote.

Contents

On April 26, 2016, in the presidential primaries, voters selected the Democratic, Republican, and Green parties' respective nominees for president. Pennsylvania is a closed primary state, meaning voters must have been previously registered with a particular political party in order to vote for one of that parties' candidates, to participate in their respective party primary. [1]

In the general election, Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, won Pennsylvania by 44,292 votes out of more than 6 million cast, a margin of 0.72% and the narrowest margin in a presidential election since 1840, when William Henry Harrison defeated Martin Van Buren by just 0.12%. Pennsylvania voted 2.82% more Republican than the nation-at-large, marking the first time since 1948 that Pennsylvania voted to the right of the nation.

Prior to the election, Pennsylvania was expected to be close as polling showed the results within the margin of error, but many election experts viewed that Clinton had an edge. [2] [3] However, on Election Day, Pennsylvania unexpectedly swung to Donald Trump. Trump carried 56 of the state's 67 counties, predominantly rural or suburban counties, while Clinton carried much of the Philadelphia metropolitan area as well as other cities including Pittsburgh, Harrisburg and Scranton. Nonetheless, some areas of traditional Democratic strength such as Luzerne County, where Wilkes-Barre is located, saw swings in margins of up to 25% toward Donald Trump, making him the first Republican nominee for president to win Pennsylvania since George H. W. Bush in 1988.

Primaries

Democratic primary

Results of the Democratic primary by county.
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary Election Results by County, 2016.svg
Results of the Democratic primary by county.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders
Pennsylvania Democratic primary, April 26, 2016
CandidatePopular voteEstimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Hillary Clinton 935,10755.61%10620126
Bernie Sanders 731,88143.53%83083
Rocky De La Fuente 14,4390.86%000
Total1,681,427100%18920209
Source: The Green Papers , Pennsylvania State Elections Official Results

Republican primary

Republican primary results by county.
Donald Trump
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80% 2016 PA GOP presidential primary.svg
Republican primary results by county.
  Donald Trump
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Pennsylvania Republican primary, April 26, 2016
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump902,59356.61%174259
Ted Cruz345,50621.67%044
John Kasich310,00319.44%033
Ben Carson (withdrawn)14,8420.93%000
Marco Rubio (withdrawn)11,9540.75%000
Jeb Bush (withdrawn)9,5770.60%000
Unprojected delegates:055
Total:1,594,475100.00%175471
Source: The Green Papers

Green Party

Pennsylvania held a series of caucuses throughout April, culminating with a meeting on April 30 in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, where delegates were assigned. [4] [5]

Pennsylvania Green Party presidential caucuses, April 17, 2016
CandidateVotesPercentageNational delegates
America Symbol.svg Jill Stein --8
William Kreml--1
Sedinam Kinamo Christin Moyowasifza Curry---
Darryl Cherney ---
Kent Mesplay ---
Total-100.00%9

Democratic National Convention

From July 25 to July 28, 2016, Philadelphia hosted the 2016 Democratic National Convention. It was held at the Wells Fargo Center with ancillary meetings at the Pennsylvania Convention Center. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was chosen as the party's nominee for president by a 59.67% majority of delegates present at the convention roll call and then winning the nomination. While runner-up rival Senator Bernie Sanders received 39.16% of votes from delegates. Clinton becoming the first female candidate to be formally nominated by a major national party as a presidential candidate in the United States. Her running mate, Senator Tim Kaine, the junior United States senator from Virginia was chosen by delegates as the party's nominee for vice president by acclamation.

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
CNN [6] Lean DNovember 4, 2016
Cook Political Report [7] Lean DNovember 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com [8] Lean DNovember 6, 2016
NBC [9] Lean DNovember 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics [10] TossupNovember 6, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [11] Lean DNovember 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [12] Lean DNovember 7, 2016

Statewide results

2016 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican 2,970,733 48.18
Democratic 2,926,44147.46
Libertarian 146,7152.38
Green 49,9410.81
Constitution
21,5720.60
Independent 6,4720.10
Independent Bernie Sanders (write-in)6,0600.10
Republican John Kasich (write-in)3020.00
Independent
30.00
Write-in 37,2390.60
Total votes6,165,478 100%
Republican win

By congressional district

Trump won 12 of 18 congressional districts, including one which elected a Democrat, while Clinton won 6 including two that elected a Republican. [15]

DistrictTrumpClintonRepresentative
1 18%80% Bob Brady
2 8%90% Chaka Fattah
Dwight Evans
3 61%35% Mike Kelly
4 59%37% Scott Perry
5 62%34% Glenn Thompson
6 48%48% Ryan Costello
7 47%49% Patrick Meehan
8 48%48% Mike Fitzpatrick
Brian Fitzpatrick
9 70%27% Bill Shuster
10 66%30% Tom Marino
11 60%36% Lou Barletta
12 59%38% Keith Rothfus
13 32%65% Brendan Boyle
14 31%66% Mike Doyle
15 52%44% Charlie Dent
16 51%44% Joe Pitts
Lloyd Smucker
17 53%43% Matt Cartwright
18 58%39% Tim Murphy

By county

County [16] Donald Trump
Republican
Hillary Clinton
Democratic
Gary Johnson
Libertarian
Jill Stein
Green
Darrell Castle
Constitution
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%#%#%#%
Adams 31,42365.48%14,21929.63%1,2512.61%4050.84%1910.40%5011.04%17,20435.85%47,990
Allegheny 259,48039.48%367,61755.94%16,1022.45%5,0970.78%1,8180.28%7,0751.08%-108,137-16.46%657,189
Armstrong 23,48473.70%7,17822.53%6852.15%1410.44%1300.41%2460.77%16,30651.17%31,864
Beaver 48,16757.03%32,53138.52%2,0222.39%4960.59%3550.42%8911.05%15,63618.51%84,462
Bedford 19,55282.59%3,64515.40%2601.10%1020.43%780.33%380.16%15,90767.19%23,675
Berks 96,62652.49%78,43742.61%5,2472.85%1,9741.07%7810.42%1,0200.55%18,1899.88%184,085
Blair 39,13570.72%13,95825.22%1,2562.27%3380.61%2220.40%4320.79%25,17745.50%55,341
Bradford 18,14169.81%6,36924.51%8933.44%1370.53%1680.65%2781.07%11,77245.30%25,986
Bucks 164,36147.64%167,06048.42%8,5562.48%3,1210.90%1,1990.35%7450.22%-2,699-0.78%345,042
Butler 64,43165.71%28,58629.15%3,0643.12%6150.63%3820.39%9730.99%35,84536.56%98,051
Cambria 42,25866.45%18,86729.67%1,2702.00%4130.65%2640.42%5170.81%23,39136.78%63,589
Cameron 1,58971.90%53124.03%532.40%60.27%70.32%241.09%1,05847.87%2,210
Carbon 18,74364.65%8,93630.82%6912.38%2650.91%1410.49%2170.75%9,80733.83%28,993
Centre 35,27445.63%37,08847.97%2,6443.42%7981.03%3440.44%1,1590.94%-1,814-2.34%77,307
Chester 116,11442.53%141,68251.90%7,9302.90%2,2470.82%8270.30%4,1981.54%-25,568-9.37%272,998
Clarion 12,57671.21%4,27324.20%4692.66%1150.65%1020.58%1250.71%8,30347.01%17,660
Clearfield 24,93272.16%8,20023.73%7762.25%2200.64%1430.41%2790.81%16,73248.43%34,550
Clinton 10,02264.64%4,74430.60%4703.03%1210.78%370.24%1110.71%5,27834.04%15,505
Columbia 18,00463.16%8,93431.34%8833.10%2650.93%1420.50%2780.97%9,07031.82%28,506
Crawford 24,98766.08%10,97129.01%1,0462.77%2710.72%2170.57%3210.85%14,01637.07%37,813
Cumberland 69,07655.94%47,08538.13%3,9753.22%9390.76%5420.44%1,8691.51%21,99117.81%123,486
Dauphin 60,86346.18%64,70649.10%3,4982.65%1,1770.89%6280.48%9110.69%-3,843-2.92%131,783
Delaware 110,66736.97%177,40259.27%5,9922.00%2,5880.86%9850.33%1,7020.57%-66,735-22.30%299,336
Elk 10,02568.91%3,85326.49%4012.76%790.54%680.47%1210.83%6,17242.42%14,547
Erie 60,06948.01%58,11246.44%3,8713.09%1,1390.91%4880.39%1,4501.16%1,9571.57%125,129
Fayette 34,59063.94%17,94633.17%8531.58%2320.43%1460.27%3320.61%16,64430.77%54,099
Forest 1,68469.59%62625.87%602.48%190.79%130.54%180.74%1,05843.72%2,420
Franklin 49,76870.59%17,46524.77%1,7122.43%4500.64%3360.48%7751.10%32,30345.82%70,506
Fulton 5,69483.47%91213.37%931.36%370.54%350.51%510.75%4,78270.10%6,822
Greene 10,84968.37%4,48228.25%2841.79%830.52%660.42%1040.66%6,36740.12%15,868
Huntingdon 14,49472.96%4,53922.85%4252.14%960.48%1520.77%1600.81%9,95550.11%19,866
Indiana 24,88865.29%11,52830.24%9362.46%2200.58%1980.52%3520.92%13,36035.05%38,122
Jefferson 15,19277.53%3,65018.63%4322.20%1100.56%940.48%1170.60%11,54258.90%19,595
Juniata 8,27378.45%1,82117.27%2011.91%710.67%880.83%910.86%6,45261.18%10,545
Lackawanna 48,38446.34%51,98349.79%1,9351.85%8960.86%2580.25%9480.91%-3,599-3.45%104,404
Lancaster 137,91456.33%91,09337.21%8,5553.49%2,0210.83%1,5290.62%3,7201.52%46,82119.12%244,832
Lawrence 25,42861.90%14,00934.11%8702.12%2480.60%1980.48%3230.79%11,41927.79%41,076
Lebanon 40,52564.84%18,95330.32%1,6472.64%4220.68%2980.48%6581.05%21,57234.52%62,503
Lehigh 73,69045.28%81,32449.97%4,0272.47%1,4020.86%5500.34%1,7401.07%-7,634-4.69%162,733
Luzerne 78,68857.90%52,45138.60%2,3391.72%1,1780.87%3270.24%9180.68%26,23719.30%135,901
Lycoming 35,62769.68%13,02025.46%1,3112.56%3840.75%2230.44%5661.11%22,60744.22%51,131
McKean 11,63570.67%4,02524.45%4082.48%1510.92%770.47%1681.02%7,61046.22%16,464
Mercer 31,54459.70%18,73335.45%1,3702.59%4150.79%2470.47%5301.00%12,81124.25%52,839
Mifflin 14,09475.28%3,87720.71%4762.54%800.43%740.40%1200.64%10,21754.57%18,721
Monroe 33,38647.69%33,91848.45%1,5022.15%7581.08%1880.27%2560.36%-532-0.76%70,008
Montgomery 162,73137.10%256,08258.38%10,9342.49%3,7040.84%1,2360.28%3,9650.90%-93,351-21.28%438,652
Montour 5,28861.80%2,85733.39%2873.35%730.85%510.60%00.00%2,43128.41%8,556
Northampton 71,73649.62%66,27545.84%3,6902.55%1,3710.95%4500.31%1,0470.72%5,4613.78%144,569
Northumberland 25,42768.89%9,78826.52%9312.52%2960.80%1800.49%2850.77%15,63942.37%36,907
Perry 15,61673.07%4,63221.67%6192.90%1630.76%1280.60%2131.00%10,98451.40%21,371
Philadelphia 108,74815.32%584,02582.30%7,1151.00%6,6790.94%1,0640.15%1,9870.28%-475,277-66.98%709,618
Pike 16,06161.06%9,26835.24%4941.88%2260.86%710.27%1830.70%6,79325.82%26,303
Potter 6,25179.49%1,30216.56%1652.10%350.45%310.39%801.01%4,94962.93%7,864
Schuylkill 44,00169.42%16,77026.46%1,4142.23%4490.71%2350.37%5160.81%27,23142.96%63,385
Snyder 11,72571.12%4,00224.28%4552.76%1110.67%700.42%1230.75%7,72346.84%16,486
Somerset 27,37975.90%7,37620.45%6781.88%1660.46%1740.48%3000.83%20,00355.45%36,073
Sullivan 2,29172.68%75023.79%652.06%140.44%160.51%160.51%1,54148.89%3,152
Susquehanna 12,89167.69%5,12326.90%5682.98%1921.01%890.47%1800.95%7,76840.79%19,043
Tioga 13,61473.56%3,90121.08%5482.96%1390.75%1230.66%1820.98%9,71352.48%18,507
Union 10,62260.02%6,18034.92%4502.54%1430.81%730.41%2281.29%4,44225.43%17,696
Venango 16,02168.09%6,30926.81%7333.12%1490.63%1360.58%1820.77%9,71241.28%23,530
Warren 12,47767.06%5,14527.65%5492.95%1300.70%1330.71%1720.92%7,33239.41%18,606
Washington 61,38660.03%36,32235.52%2,6432.58%7330.72%3660.36%8170.80%25,06424.51%102,267
Wayne 16,24467.63%7,00829.18%4661.94%2060.86%940.39%00.00%9,23638.45%24,018
Westmoreland 116,52263.50%59,66932.52%4,3672.38%9360.51%5570.30%1,4410.79%56,85330.98%183,492
Wyoming 8,83766.63%3,81128.74%3232.44%1160.87%570.43%1180.89%5,02637.89%13,262
York 128,52861.78%68,52432.94%6,4843.12%1,5680.75%8820.42%2,0430.98%60,00428.84%208,029
Totals2,970,74248.17%2,926,45847.45%146,7192.38%49,9410.81%21,5720.35%51,5060.83%44,2840.72%6,166,938
Pennsylvania County Swing 2016.svg
Pennsylvania County Trend 2016.svg
Pennsylvania County Flips 2016.svg

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Analysis

2016 would also be the first presidential election since 1948 in which the Democratic nominee won the popular vote without the state. Pennsylvania's vote for Donald Trump, along with that of Wisconsin and Michigan, marked the fall of the Democratic Blue Wall, a bloc of over 240 electoral votes that voted solidly Democratic from 1992 to 2012. Pennsylvania was one of the eleven states to have voted twice for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 which Hillary Clinton lost in 2016. Although Wisconsin eventually delivered the Trump victory, when the Clinton campaign learned that they had lost Pennsylvania, they then knew that they had lost the election. [17] Trump became the first Republican ever to win the White House without carrying Chester or Dauphin Counties, as well as the first to do so without carrying Centre County since Benjamin Harrison in 1888, and the first to do so without carrying Monroe County since Calvin Coolidge in 1924. He also became the first Republican to win Pennsylvania without carrying any of Philadelphia's suburban counties.

See also

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The 2016 United States presidential election in Oregon was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Oregon voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Oregon has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 United States presidential election in North Dakota</span> Election in North Dakota

The 2016 United States presidential election in North Dakota was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. North Dakota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. North Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.

References

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  17. Burstein, Nanette (Director) (March 6, 2020). Episode 4 - Be Our Champion, Go Away (Documentary). Hillary. Hulu.

Further reading