2016 United States presidential election in New Jersey

Last updated

2016 United States presidential election in New Jersey
Flag of New Jersey.svg
  2012 November 8, 2016 2020  
Turnout68.13% Increase2.svg
  Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg Portrait of President-elect Donald Trump (cropped).jpg
Nominee Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state New York New York
Running mate Tim Kaine Mike Pence
Electoral vote140
Popular vote2,148,2781,601,933
Percentage55.45%41.35%

New Jersey Presidential Election Results 2016.svg
NJ-16-pres-districts.svg
New Jersey Presidential Results 2016 by Municipality.svg

President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county United States presidential election in New Jersey, 2016.svg
Treemap of the popular vote by county

The 2016 United States presidential election in New Jersey was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Jersey voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. New Jersey has 14 electoral votes in the Electoral College. [1]

Contents

Clinton won the state with 55.5% of the vote over Trump's 41.35%, or a 14-point margin. Despite her victory in the state, Clinton's vote share was slightly poorer than the vote shares President Barack Obama got from the state in 2008 and 2012. This was the first time since 1976 that New Jersey did not vote for the same candidate as neighboring Pennsylvania, and the first time since 1932 that New Jersey voted Democratic while Pennsylvania voted Republican. Donald Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Somerset County since Benjamin Harrison in 1888.

Primary elections

New Jersey's presidential primaries were on June 7, 2016, with the Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian parties participating. [2] Registered members of each party could only vote in their party's primary, while voters who were unaffiliated could choose any 1 primary in which to vote.

Democratic primary

Two candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot: [3]

New Jersey Democratic primary, June 7, 2016
CandidatePopular voteEstimated delegates
CountPercentagePledgedUnpledgedTotal
Hillary Clinton 566,24763.32%791291
Bernie Sanders 328,05836.68%47249
Uncommitted000
Total894,305100%12616142
Source: [4] [5]

Republican primary

Republican primary results by county:
Donald Trump
70-80%
80-90% 2016 NJ GOP presidential primary.svg
Republican primary results by county:
  Donald Trump
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%

3 candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot: [3]

New Jersey Republican primary, June 7, 2016
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump360,21280.41%51051
John Kasich (withdrawn)59,86613.36%000
Ted Cruz (withdrawn)27,8746.22%000
Unprojected delegates:000
Total:447,952100.00%51051
Source: The Green Papers

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Los Angeles Times [6] Safe DNovember 6, 2016
CNN [7] Safe DNovember 4, 2016
Cook Political Report [8] Safe DNovember 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com [9] Safe DNovember 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [10] Safe DNovember 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [11] Safe DNovember 7, 2016
RealClearPolitics [12] Likely DNovember 8, 2016
Fox News [13] Safe DNovember 7, 2016

Candidate ballot access

[14]

Results

Vote share by Legislative district
Trump:
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
Clinton:
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
80-90% New Jersey Presidential Election Results 2016 by LD.svg
Vote share by Legislative district
  Trump:
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Clinton:
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
2016 United States presidential election in New Jersey [15]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Hillary Clinton 2,148,278 55.45%
Republican Donald Trump 1,601,93341.35%
Libertarian Gary Johnson 72,4771.87%
Green Jill Stein 37,7720.98%
Constitution Darrell L. Castle 6,1610.16%
Socialist Workers Alyson Kennedy 2,1560.06%
American Delta Party Rocky De La Fuente 1,8380.05%
Workers World Monica Moorehead 1,7490.05%
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva 1,6820.04%
Majority 546,34514.10%
Turnout 3,874,046

By county

CountyHillary Clinton
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%
Atlantic 60,92451.61%52,69044.64%4,4273.75%8,2346.97%118,041
Bergen 231,21154.76%175,52941.57%15,4733.67%55,68213.19%422,213
Burlington 121,72555.01%89,27240.34%10,2864.65%32,45314.67%221,283
Camden 146,71764.06%72,63131.71%9,6994.23%74,08632.35%229,047
Cape May 18,75038.07%28,44657.75%2,0614.18%-9,696-19.68%49,257
Cumberland 27,77151.11%24,45345.01%2,1073.88%3,3186.10%54,331
Essex 240,83776.97%63,17620.19%8,8712.84%177,66156.78%312,884
Gloucester 66,87047.34%67,54447.82%6,8404.84%-674-0.48%141,254
Hudson 163,91774.32%49,04322.24%7,5823.44%114,87452.08%220,542
Hunterdon 28,89840.33%38,71254.02%4,0505.65%-9,814-13.69%71,660
Mercer 104,77566.29%46,19329.23%7,0904.48%58,58237.06%158,058
Middlesex 193,04458.76%122,95337.42%12,5603.82%70,09121.34%328,557
Monmouth 137,18143.17%166,72352.47%13,8464.36%-29,542-9.30%317,750
Morris 115,24945.46%126,07149.72%12,2174.82%-10,822-4.26%253,537
Ocean 87,15031.49%179,07964.71%10,4963.80%-91,929-33.22%276,725
Passaic 116,75959.50%72,90237.15%6,5673.35%43,85722.35%196,228
Salem 11,90439.88%16,38154.87%1,5685.25%-4,477-14.99%29,853
Somerset 85,68954.55%65,50541.70%5,8983.75%20,18412.85%157,092
Sussex 24,21232.21%46,65862.08%4,2885.71%-22,446-29.87%75,158
Union 147,41465.94%68,11430.47%8,0423.59%79,30035.47%223,570
Warren 17,28134.78%29,85860.10%2,5445.12%-12,577-25.32%49,683
Totals2,148,27854.99%1,601,93341.00%156,5124.01%546,34513.99%3,906,723
New Jersey County Swing 2016.svg
New Jersey County Trend 2016.svg
New Jersey County Flips 2016.svg
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[16]

By congressional district

Clinton won seven of 12 congressional districts. Trump and Clinton each won a district held by the other party. [17]

DistrictClintonTrumpRepresentative
1st 61%36% Donald Norcross
2nd 46%51% Frank LoBiondo
3rd 45%51% Tom MacArthur
4th 41%56% Chris Smith
5th 48%49% Scott Garrett
Josh Gottheimer
6th 56%41% Frank Pallone Jr.
7th 49%47% Leonard Lance
8th 76%21% Albio Sires
9th 64%33% Bill Pascrell
10th 85%13% Donald Payne Jr.
11th 48%49% Rodney Frelinghuysen
12th 65%32% Bonnie Watson Coleman

Analysis

Hillary Clinton's 55.5% of the vote was 2.9% less than Barack Obama's win in the state in 2012. Overall, the trend from 2012 to 2016 was that suburban areas of central and northern New Jersey voted more Democratic, while the shore and southern New Jersey voted more Republican. Clinton's most notable improvements over Obama in 2012 were seen in Union, Somerset, and Morris Counties. In Morris, Clinton came within 5% of winning the county, which had not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, and would later vote Democratic in 2020. Clinton's stronger performance in the suburban towns of north-central New Jersey, such as Summit, Westfield, and Bridgewater, helped her narrowly win the 7th congressional district.

On the other hand, southern New Jersey, especially Cumberland County and Salem County, voted significantly more Republican than they had in 2012. For example, even though Cumberland County voted Democratic in both 2012 and 2016, Clinton won it by just 6%, whereas Obama won it by nearly 24% in 2012. Meanwhile, Trump flipped Salem County after Obama won it in 2012, and he also was the first Republican to win Gloucester County since 1988. Additionally, the four shore counties of Monmouth, Ocean, Atlantic, and Cape May all voted more Republican than they had in 2012, as Mitt Romney had won these four counties collectively by around 6% in 2012, but Trump won them by 17% in 2016.

See also

References

  1. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration . Retrieved December 14, 2020.
  2. Green papers for 2016 primaries (D) (R). Retrieved 2016-04-05.
  3. 1 2 "Official List / Candidates for President / For PRIMARY ELECTION 06/07/2016 Election" (PDF). NJ.gov. April 14, 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 30, 2017. Retrieved November 4, 2017.
  4. The Green Papers
  5. New Jersey Democratic Primary Official Results - New Jersey Department of State
  6. "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times . November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  7. Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN . Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  8. "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report . November 7, 2016. Archived from the original on March 1, 2019. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  9. "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com . November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  10. "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  11. Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics . Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  12. "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  13. "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
  14. "Official List Candidates for President For GENERAL ELECTION 11/08/2016 Election" (PDF). New Jersey Secretary of State - Division of Elections. August 12, 2016. Retrieved November 9, 2016.
  15. "Official List Candidates for President For GENERAL ELECTION 11/08/2016 Election" (PDF). New Jersey Secretary of State - Division of Elections. December 6, 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on January 7, 2017. Retrieved December 6, 2016.
  16. Bump, Philip. "The counties that flipped parties to swing the 2016 election". The Washington Post . ISSN   0190-8286 . Retrieved September 1, 2020.
  17. https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::c601c3fd-769d-4a46-9c0c-4801ad29fa31