| ||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||
Sherrill: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Ciattarelli: 50–60% 60–70% | ||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||
| Elections in New Jersey |
|---|
The 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2025, to elect the governor of New Jersey. Democratic congresswoman Mikie Sherrill won her first term in office, defeating Republican former state assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli in a landslide. [1] [2] [3] Incumbent Democratic Governor Phil Murphy was term-limited.
Primary elections were held on June 10, 2025. [4] Sherrill won the Democratic nomination with 34% of the vote over a field of candidates that included Newark mayor Ras Baraka and Jersey City mayor Steven Fulop. Ciattarelli, the Republican nominee in 2021, won his second consecutive nomination with almost 68% of the vote over radio talk show host Bill Spadea.
Following a string of strong Republican performances in the state in 2021 and 2024, many analysts expected a close race. Some polls suggested the election was a toss-up. [5] [6] However, Sherrill outperformed expectations and won by a margin of approximately 13%, considerably higher than Phil Murphy's winning margin of 3.2% over Ciattarelli in 2021.
Sherrill is scheduled to be sworn in as the 57th governor of New Jersey on January 20, 2026. She is set to become the second female governor in New Jersey history, [7] the first Democratic female governor in New Jersey history, and the first female military veteran to serve as governor of a U.S. state. [8] This election was the first New Jersey gubernatorial election since 1961 in which either party won the governorship for three consecutive terms. [9]
New Jersey has long been considered a blue state, consistently voting Democratic at the federal level since 1992 and generally voting Democratic at the state level as well. Republicans have not won a statewide election in New Jersey since the 2013 gubernatorial election, but recent statewide elections have been notably competitive.[ citation needed ] In 2021, Governor Murphy was re-elected by a 3.2% margin, [10] considerably down from his 14.1% margin of victory in 2017. [11] A similar rightward shift was seen at the presidential level in 2024, when Democrat Kamala Harris won New Jersey by 5.9%, [12] considerably down from 2020, when Joe Biden won New Jersey by 15.9%. Most polls, analysts and ratings showed Sherrill to be the favorite, although the polls narrowed beginning in mid-September.[ citation needed ]
This election was considered to be an indicator of the popularity of Donald Trump's second presidency in the state. Until 2021, New Jersey had elected a governor of the opposite party of the sitting president of the United States in every election since 1989. [13] Until this election, New Jersey had not elected the same party to the governor's office for more than two consecutive terms since 1965. [14]
In October 2025, the Trump administration announced that the Department of Justice would deploy election monitors to polling sites in California and New Jersey ahead of the November 4 elections. The administration cited concerns raised by Republican officials about alleged voting irregularities. Democratic leaders in both states criticized the move as politically-motivated voter intimidation, while the department said the monitors would ensure transparency and compliance with federal law. [15]
| Hunterdon County Democratic convention [104] | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Round 1 | Round 2 | ||||||||||||||||
| Votes | % | Votes | % | |||||||||||||||
| Mikie Sherrill | 81 | 45.76% | 89 | 56.69% | ||||||||||||||
| Ras Baraka | 65 | 36.73% | 68 | 43.31% | ||||||||||||||
| Josh Gottheimer | 13 | 7.35% | Eliminated | |||||||||||||||
| Sean Spiller | 11 | 6.21% | Eliminated | |||||||||||||||
| Stephen Sweeney | 7 | 3.95% | Eliminated | |||||||||||||||
| Total ballots | 177 ballots | 157 ballots | ||||||||||||||||
| Mercer County Democratic convention [105] | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Round 1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Votes | % | |||||||||||||||||
| Mikie Sherrill | 224 | 55.45% | ||||||||||||||||
| Ras Baraka | 133 | 32.92% | ||||||||||||||||
| Sean Spiller | 47 | 11.63% | ||||||||||||||||
| Total ballots | 404 ballots | |||||||||||||||||
| Monmouth County Democratic convention [107] | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Round 1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Votes | % | |||||||||||||||||
| Mikie Sherrill | 338 | 72.84% | ||||||||||||||||
| Ras Baraka | 96 | 20.69% | ||||||||||||||||
| Sean Spiller | 30 | 6.47% | ||||||||||||||||
| Josh Gottheimer [f] | 0 [g] | 0.00% | ||||||||||||||||
| Total ballots | 464 ballots | |||||||||||||||||
| Sussex County Democratic convention [110] | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Round 1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Votes | % | |||||||||||||||||
| Mikie Sherrill | 113 | 88.28% | ||||||||||||||||
| Ras Baraka | 9 | 7.03% | ||||||||||||||||
| Stephen Sweeney | 6 | 4.69% | ||||||||||||||||
| Sean Spiller | 0 | 0.00% | ||||||||||||||||
| Total ballots | 128 ballots [h] | |||||||||||||||||
| Burlington County Democratic convention [135] | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Round 1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Votes | % | |||||||||||||||||
| Stephen Sweeney | 119 | 44.57% | ||||||||||||||||
| Ras Baraka | 69 | 25.84% | ||||||||||||||||
| Mikie Sherrill | 52 | 19.48% | ||||||||||||||||
| Sean Spiller | 27 | 10.11% | ||||||||||||||||
| Total ballots | 267 ballots | |||||||||||||||||
| Atlantic County Democratic convention [134] | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Round 1 | Round 2 | ||||||||||||||||
| Votes | % | Votes | % | |||||||||||||||
| Stephen Sweeney | 81 | 47.36% | 90 | 52.02% | ||||||||||||||
| Ras Baraka | 38 | 22.22% | 46 | 26.59% | ||||||||||||||
| Sean Spiller | 29 | 16.96% | 37 | 21.39% | ||||||||||||||
| Mikie Sherrill | 23 | 13.45% | Eliminated | |||||||||||||||
| Total ballots | 171 ballots | 173 ballots | ||||||||||||||||
| Ocean County Democratic convention [159] [i] | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Round 1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Votes | % | |||||||||||||||||
| Mikie Sherrill | 63 | 38.41% | ||||||||||||||||
| Stephen Sweeney | 31 | 18.90% | ||||||||||||||||
| Ras Baraka | 26 | 15.85% | ||||||||||||||||
| Steven Fulop [j] | 23 | 14.02% | ||||||||||||||||
| Sean Spiller | 21 | 12.80% | ||||||||||||||||
| Total ballots | 164 ballots | |||||||||||||||||
| Bergen County Democratic convention [78] | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Round 1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Votes | % | |||||||||||||||||
| Josh Gottheimer | 616 | 66.02% | ||||||||||||||||
| Mikie Sherrill | 148 | 15.86% | ||||||||||||||||
| Ras Baraka | 95 | 10.18% | ||||||||||||||||
| Sean Spiller | 45 | 4.82% | ||||||||||||||||
| Steve Sweeney | 29 | 3.11% | ||||||||||||||||
| Total ballots [k] | 933 ballots | |||||||||||||||||
| Morris County Democratic convention [108] | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Round 1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Votes | % | |||||||||||||||||
| Mikie Sherrill | 385 | 76.85% | ||||||||||||||||
| Ras Baraka | 88 | 17.56% | ||||||||||||||||
| Sean Spiller | 20 | 3.99% | ||||||||||||||||
| Steve Sweeney | 8 | 1.6% | ||||||||||||||||
| Total ballots [l] | 524 ballots | |||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 83.71% [161] | |||||||||||||||||
| Salem County Democratic convention [139] | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Round 1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Votes | % | |||||||||||||||||
| Steve Sweeney | 24 | 82.76% | ||||||||||||||||
| Ras Baraka | 3 | 10.34% | ||||||||||||||||
| Mikie Sherrill | 2 | 6.90% | ||||||||||||||||
| Total ballots | 29 ballots | |||||||||||||||||
| Warren County Democratic convention [79] | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Round 1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Votes | % | |||||||||||||||||
| Josh Gottheimer | 19 | 57.58% | ||||||||||||||||
| Ras Baraka | 7 | 21.21% | ||||||||||||||||
| Mikie Sherrill | 5 | 15.15% | ||||||||||||||||
| Steve Sweeney | 2 | 6.06% | ||||||||||||||||
| Total ballots | 33 ballots | |||||||||||||||||
| Essex County Democratic convention [102] | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Round 1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Votes | % | |||||||||||||||||
| Mikie Sherrill | 438 | 62.13% | ||||||||||||||||
| Ras Baraka | 236 | 33.48% | ||||||||||||||||
| Sean Spiller | 24 | 3.40% | ||||||||||||||||
| Steve Sweeney | 7 | 0.99% | ||||||||||||||||
| Total ballots | 705 ballots | |||||||||||||||||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [m] | Margin of error | Ras Baraka | Steven Fulop | Josh Gottheimer | Mikie Sherrill | Sean Spiller | Stephen Sweeney | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College [162] | May 11–13, 2025 | 386 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 28% | 10% | 5% | 24% |
| MDW Communications (D) [163] [A] | May 11–13, 2025 | 1,100 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 17% | 13% | 7% | 21% | 7% | 5% | 30% |
| Global Strategy Group (D) [164] [B] | May 10–13, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 15% | 16% | 11% | 33% | 6% | 7% | 12% |
| StimSight Research [165] | May 7–10, 2025 | 409 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 21% | 19% | 10% | 31% | 9% | 9% | 1% |
| MDW Communications (D) [166] [A] | April 2025 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 14% | 14% | 9% | 18% | 11% | 8% | 26% |
| Rutgers-Eagleton [167] | April 1–10, 2025 | 556 (RV) | – | 9% | 12% | 9% | 17% | 10% | 7% | 32% |
| Global Strategy Group (D) [168] [B] | April 6–8, 2025 | 600 (LV) | – | 13% | 13% | 15% | 25% | 12% | 6% | 16% |
| Hart Research Associates (D) [160] [C] | March – April 2025 | – | – | 12% | 14% | 11% | 20% | 9% | 9% | 26% |
| Global Strategy Group (D) [169] [D] | April 1–3, 2025 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 11% | 13% | 14% | 19% | 11% | 5% | 27% |
| MDW Communications (D) [170] [A] | March 19–20, 2025 | 935 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 12% | 9% | 5% | 14% | 8% | 5% | 47% |
| GBAO (D) [171] [E] | February 27 – March 3, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 14% | 10% | 9% | 20% | 15% | 8% | 24% |
| Hart Research Associates (D) [160] [C] | February 2025 | – | – | 12% | 12% | 9% | 25% | 11% | 5% | 26% |
| MDW Communications (D) [172] [A] | February 10, 2025 | 789 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 10% | 5% | 5% | 16% | 10% | 3% | 52% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) [173] [F] | January 22–23, 2025 | 615 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 9% | 9% | 5% | 16% | 11% | 9% | 43% |
| Emerson College [174] | January 18–21, 2025 | 437 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 8% | 4% | 7% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 56% |
| Hart Research Associates (D) [160] [C] | November 2024 | – | – | 12% | 7% | 6% | 17% | 10% | 9% | 39% |
| Upswing Research (D) [175] [G] | November 23–27, 2024 | 803 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 13% | 8% | 10% | 25% | 7% | 8% | 30% |
| Global Strategy Group (D) [176] [B] | November 20–24, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 9% | 4% | 9% | 24% | 5% | 11% | 38% |
| Renaissance Campaign Strategies (D) [177] [H] | July 13–14, 2024 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 12% | 7% | 8% | 18% | 2% | 8% | 45% |
| GQR Research (D) [178] [I] | March 7–12, 2024 | 603 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 20% | 9% | 5% | 23% | – | 12% | 29% |
| Primary campaign finance activity through June 27, 2025 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Ras Baraka | $7,325,248 | $7,219,890 | $105,358 |
| Steven Fulop | $9,142,423 | $9,009,629 | $132,794 |
| Josh Gottheimer | $9,217,621 | $8,742,829 | $474,792 |
| Mikie Sherrill | $9,549,353 | $9,283,760 | $265,594 |
| Sean Spiller | $454,309 | $415,580 | $38,729 |
| Steve Sweeney | $9,047,708 | $8,633,427 | $414,281 |
| Source: New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission [180] | |||
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Democratic | Democratic | Democratic | Democratic | Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | ||||||||||
| Baraka | Fulop | Gottheimer | Sherrill | Spiller | Sweeney | |||||
| 1 [181] | November 21, 2024 | NJ PBS | David Cruz | YouTube | P | P | A | A | P | P |
| 2 [182] | February 2, 2025 | New Jersey Globe On New Jersey Rider University | Laura Jones | YouTube | P | P | P | P | P | P |
| 3 [183] [184] | May 12, 2025 | NJ PBS WNYC | Briana Vannozzi Michael Hill | YouTube | P | P | P | P | N | P |
| 4 [183] [184] | May 18, 2025 | New Jersey Globe On New Jersey Rider University | Laura Jones | YouTube | P | P | P | P | N | P |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Mikie Sherrill | 286,244 | 34.02% | |
| Democratic | Ras Baraka | 173,951 | 20.67% | |
| Democratic | Steven Fulop | 134,573 | 15.99% | |
| Democratic | Josh Gottheimer | 97,384 | 11.57% | |
| Democratic | Sean Spiller | 89,472 | 10.63% | |
| Democratic | Stephen Sweeney | 59,811 | 7.11% | |
| Total votes | 841,435 | 100.0% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jack Ciattarelli | Unopposed | ||
| Total votes | N/A [o] | 100.00% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jack Ciattarelli | Unopposed | ||
| Total votes | N/A [o] | 100.00% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jack Ciattarelli | Unopposed | ||
| Total votes | N/A [o] | 100.00% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jack Ciattarelli | Unopposed | ||
| Total votes | N/A [o] | 100.00% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Bill Spadea | 129 | 60.85% | |
| Republican | Jack Ciattarelli | 83 | 39.15% | |
| Total votes | 212 | 100.00% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jack Ciattarelli | Unopposed | ||
| Total votes | N/A [o] | 100.00% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jack Ciattarelli | Unopposed | ||
| Total votes | N/A [o] | 100.00% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jack Ciattarelli | Unopposed | ||
| Total votes | N/A [o] | 100.00% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Bill Spadea | 69 | 42.86% | |
| Republican | Jack Ciattarelli | 59 | 36.65% | |
| Republican | Jon Bramnick | 33 | 20.50% | |
| Total votes | 161 | 100.00% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jack Ciattarelli | Unopposed | ||
| Total votes | N/A [o] | 100.00% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jack Ciattarelli | Unopposed | ||
| Total votes | N/A [o] | 100.00% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jack Ciattarelli | 258 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 258 [p] | 100.00% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jack Ciattarelli | Unopposed | ||
| Total votes | N/A [o] | 100.00% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jack Ciattarelli | Unopposed | ||
| Total votes | N/A [o] | 100.00% | ||
| Camden County Republican convention, March 10, 2025 [244] | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Round 1 | Round 2 | ||||||||||||||||
| Votes | % | Votes | % | |||||||||||||||
| Bill Spadea | 36 | 47.37% | 51 | 68.00% | ||||||||||||||
| Jack Ciattarelli | 23 | 30.26% | 24 | 32.00% | ||||||||||||||
| Edward Durr | 29 | 16.96% | 17 | 22.37% | ||||||||||||||
| Total ballots | 76 | 75 | ||||||||||||||||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jack Ciattarelli | 492 | 86.31% | |
| Republican | Mario Kranjac | 66 | 11.58% | |
| Republican | Monica Brinson | 12 | 2.11% | |
| Total votes | 570 | 100.00% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jack Ciattarelli | 15 | 88.24% | |
| Republican | Jon Bramnick | 2 | 11.76% | |
| Total votes | 17 | 100.00% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jack Ciattarelli | Unopposed | ||
| Total votes | N/A [o] | 100.00% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [m] | Margin of error | Jon Bramnick | Jack Ciattarelli | Edward Durr | Mario Kranjac | Bill Spadea | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College [162] | May 11–13, 2025 | 330 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 8% | 44% | – | 2% | 18% | 4% [q] | 23% |
| National Research Inc. (R) [250] [J] | May 6–8, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 10% | 54% | – | 2% | 23% | – | 11% |
| National Research Inc. (R) [251] [J] | April 8–10, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 9% | 50% | – | 3% | 22% | – | 14% |
| Rutgers-Eagleton [167] | April 1–10, 2025 | 258 (RV) | – | 4% | 42% | – | 0% | 12% | 7% [r] | 34% |
| Durr withdraws from the race | ||||||||||
| KAConsulting (R) [252] [K] | February 5–7, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 4% | 42% | 2% | 2% | 13% | – | 35% |
| Emerson College [174] | January 18–21, 2025 | 334 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 4% | 26% | 2% | – | 13% | 10% [s] | 47% |
| KAConsulting (R) [254] [K] | June 12–14, 2024 | 606 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 3% | 44% | 2% | – | 11% | – | 38% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [m] | Margin of error | Jon Bramnick | Jack Ciattarelli | Edward Durr | Bill Spadea | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stepien Strategic Partners (R) [255] [L] | December 7–10, 2024 | 920 (LV) | ±3.2% | 1% | 37% | 3% | 38% | 22% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [m] | Margin of error | Jon Bramnick | Jack Ciattarelli | Edward Durr | Bill Spadea | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stepien Strategic Partners (R) [255] [L] | December 7–10, 2024 | 920 (LV) | ±3.2% | 5% | 39% | 2% | 22% | 32% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [m] | Margin of error | Jon Bramnick | Jack Ciattarelli | Edward Durr | Bill Spadea | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stepien Strategic Partners (R) [255] [L] | December 7–10, 2024 | 920 (LV) | ±3.2% | 3% | 28% | 4% | 38% | 27% |
| Primary campaign finance activity through June 27, 2025 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Justin Barbera | <$6,900 | <$6,900 | <$6,900 |
| Jon Bramnick | $5,160,140 | $5,015,536 | $144,604 |
| Jack Ciattarelli | $9,474,904 | $9,204,860 | $270,044 |
| Edward Durr | $11,775 | $4,591 | $7,184 |
| Mario Kranjac | $191,289 | $198,829 | -$7,540 |
| Bill Spadea | $4,787,792 | $4,572,045 | $215,747 |
| Source: New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission [180] | |||
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Republican | Republican | Republican | Republican | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | ||||||||||
| Barbera | Bramnick | Ciattarelli | Durr | Kranjac | Spadea | |||||
| 1 | November 21, 2024 | NJ PBS | David Cruz | YouTube | N | P | A | P | N | A |
| 2 [182] | February 4, 2025 | New Jersey Globe On New Jersey Rider University Save Jersey | Laura Jones | YouTube | N | P | P | P | N | P |
| 3 [183] [184] | May 7, 2025 | NJ PBS WNYC | David Cruz Michael Hill | YouTube | N | P | P | W | N | P |
| 4 [183] [184] | May 20, 2025 | New Jersey Globe On New Jersey Rider University Save Jersey | Laura Jones | YouTube | N | P | P | W | N | P |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jack Ciattarelli | 316,283 | 67.82% | |
| Republican | Bill Spadea | 101,408 | 21.75% | |
| Republican | Jon Bramnick | 29,130 | 6.25% | |
| Republican | Mario Kranjac | 12,782 | 2.74% | |
| Republican | Justin Barbera | 6,743 | 1.45% | |
| Total votes | 466,346 | 100.0% | ||
The in-person early voting period ran from October 25 to November 2, 2025. [262]
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||
| Sherrill | Ciattarelli | |||||
| 1 [264] | September 21, 2025 | New Jersey Globe On New Jersey Rider University | Laura Jones | YouTube | P | P |
| 2 [264] | October 8, 2025 | Various [u] | Tamala Edwards Bill Ritter | YouTube | P | P |
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||
| Caldwell | Gannon | |||||
| 1 [264] | September 30, 2025 | Various [v] | Dan Mannarino Henry Rosoff | YouTube | P | P |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report [265] | Lean D | November 4, 2025 |
| Inside Elections [266] | Lean D | November 4, 2025 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball [267] | Lean D | November 4, 2025 |
| Race to the WH [268] | Likely D | November 4, 2025 |
| State Navigate [269] | Likely D | November 4, 2025 |
| New Jersey Globe [270] | Lean D | November 4, 2025 |
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Mikie Sherrill (D) | Jack Ciattarelli (R) | Other/ | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Decision Desk HQ [366] | through November 3, 2025 | November 3, 2025 | 50.6% | 45.7% | 3.7% | Sherrill +4.9% |
| FiftyPlusOne [367] | through November 3, 2025 | November 3, 2025 | 50.4% | 44.7% | 4.9% | Sherrill +5.7% |
| Race to the WH [368] | through November 3, 2025 | November 4, 2025 | 49.7% | 45.1% | 5.2% | Sherrill +4.6% |
| RealClearPolitics [369] | October 14–30, 2025 | November 1, 2025 | 48.9% | 45.6% | 5.5% | Sherrill +3.3% |
| VoteHub [370] | through November 3, 2025 | November 3, 2025 | 49.8% | 44.5% | 5.7% | Sherrill +5.3% |
| Average | 49.9% | 45.1% | 5.0% | Sherrill +4.8% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [m] | Margin of error | Mikie Sherrill (D) | Jack Ciattarelli (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. [371] | November 2–3, 2025 | 429 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 51% | 48% | 1% [x] | – |
| 450 (LV) | 48% | 46% | 1% [x] | 5% | |||
| John Zogby Strategies (D) [372] | October 31 – November 3, 2025 | 1,205 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 55% | 43% | 2% [y] | – |
| AtlasIntel [373] | October 25–30, 2025 | 1,639 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 50% | 49% | – | 1% |
| SoCal Strategies (R) [374] [M] | October 28–29, 2025 | 800 (LV) | – | 52% | 45% | – | 3% |
| Suffolk University [375] | October 26–29, 2025 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 42% | 2% [z] | 7% |
| Emerson College [376] [N] | October 25–28, 2025 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% [aa] | 48% | 1% [ab] | 1% |
| 49% | 48% | 1% [ab] | 2% | ||||
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Company Research (R) [377] [O] | October 24–28, 2025 | 956 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 45% | – | 3% |
| 1,107 (RV) | 52% | 43% | – | 5% | |||
| Quinnipiac University [378] | October 23–28, 2025 | 1,166 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 51% | 43% | 2% [z] | 4% |
| 51% [ac] | 44% | – | 4% | ||||
| YouGov [379] | October 17–28, 2025 | 1,153 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 54% | 44% | 2% [ad] | – |
| 51% | 42% | 1% [ad] | 6% | ||||
| Quantus Insights (R) [380] | October 26–27, 2025 | 1,380 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 49% | 46% | – | 5% |
| co/efficient (R) [381] | October 23–27, 2025 | 995 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 47% | 1% [x] | 5% |
| A2 Insights [382] | October 24–26, 2025 | 812 (LV) | – | 51% | 47% | – | 2% |
| GQR (D) [383] [B] | October 15–20, 2025 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 40% | – | 8% |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners (D) [384] [P] | October 16–18, 2025 | 605 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% |
| Rutgers-Eagleton [385] | October 3–17, 2025 | 795 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 50% | 45% | – | 5% |
| KAConsulting (R) [386] [Q] | October 15–16, 2025 | 601 (RV/LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)/Trafalgar Group (R) [387] | October 14–15, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 44% | 4% | 7% |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University [388] | October 9–15, 2025 | 814 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 52% | 45% | – | 3% |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Company Research (R) [389] [O] | October 10–14, 2025 | 869 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 45% | – | 5% |
| 1,002 (RV) | 48% | 44% | – | 8% | |||
| Quinnipiac University [390] | October 9–13, 2025 | 1,327 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 44% | 2% [z] | 4% |
| 51% [ac] | 44% | – | 4% | ||||
| Rasmussen Reports (R) [391] | October 8–9, 2025 | 955 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 40% | 4% [ae] | 9% |
| Neighborhood Research (R) [392] | October 6–9, 2025 | 311 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 44% | 44% | – | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) [393] [R] | October 2–3, 2025 | 703 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 43% | – | 8% |
| John Zogby Strategies (D) [394] | September 30 – October 2, 2025 | 912 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 42% | – | 8% |
| Quantus Insights (R) [395] | September 29–30, 2025 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
| Beacon Research (D)/ Shaw & Company Research (R) [396] [O] | September 25–28, 2025 | 822 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 42% | – | 8% |
| 1,002 (RV) | 48% | 41% | – | 11% | |||
| Global Strategy Group (D) [397] [B] | September 22–25, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 43% | – | 7% |
| Valcour/Save Jersey (R) [398] | September 23–24, 2025 | 1,274 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 45% | – | 7% |
| Emerson College [399] | September 22–23, 2025 | 935 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 43% | 3% | 11% |
| yes. every kid. [400] | September 20–22, 2025 | 704 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 41% | – | 10% |
| National Research Inc. (R) [401] [J] | September 16–18, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 46% | – | 9% |
| Quinnipiac University [402] | September 11–15, 2025 | 1,238 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 49% | 41% | 2% [z] | 6% |
| 51% [af] | 42% | – | 7% | ||||
| National Research Inc. (R) [403] [J] | September 8–10, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 45% | – | 8% |
| Quantus Insights (R) [404] | September 2–4, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 37% | – | 16% |
| 49% [aa] | 39% | – | 12% | ||||
| TIPP Insights (R) [405] [S] | August 25–28, 2025 | 1,524 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 36% | – | 27% |
| 1,349 (LV) | 46% | 39% | 2% [ag] | 12% | |||
| 1,073 (RV) [ah] | 47% | 43% | 2% [ag] | 8% | |||
| Rutgers-Eagleton [406] | July 31 – August 11, 2025 | 1,650 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 44% | 35% | 3% | 17% |
| 47% [aa] | 37% | 3% | 12% | ||||
| A2 Insights [407] | July 29 – August 2, 2025 | 629 (LV) | – | 51% | 45% | – | 4% |
| StimSight Research [408] | July 18–24, 2025 | 1,108 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 42% | 1% | 9% |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University [409] | July 17–23, 2025 | 806 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 37% | 3% | 15% |
| National Research Inc. (R) [403] [J] | July 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | – | 11% |
| KAConsulting (R) [410] [Q] | June 24–27, 2025 | 800 (RV/LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 42% | – | 11% |
| Cygnal (R) [411] [T] | June 19–20, 2025 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 43% | – | 7% |
| Rutgers-Eagleton [412] | June 13–16, 2025 | 621 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 51% | 31% | – | 18% |
| 56% [aa] | 35% | – | 9% | ||||
| National Research Inc. (R) [413] [J] | June 11–12, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 42% | – | 12% |
| SurveyUSA (D) [414] [P] | May 28–30, 2025 | 576 (LV) | ± 6.1% | 51% | 38% | – | 12% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Mikie Sherrill Dale Caldwell | 1,840,416 | 56.55% | ||
| Republican | Jack Ciattarelli Jim Gannon | 1,394,910 | 42.86% | ||
| Libertarian | Vic Kaplan Bruno Pereira | 11,507 | 0.35% | ||
| Socialist Workers | Joanne Kuniansky Craig Honts | 7,829 | 0.24% | ||
| Total votes | 3,254,662 | 100.00% | |||
| Democratic hold | Swing | ||||
| County | Mikie Sherrill Democratic | Jack Ciattarelli Republican | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Atlantic | |||||||||
| Bergen | |||||||||
| Burlington | |||||||||
| Camden | |||||||||
| Cape May | |||||||||
| Cumberland | |||||||||
| Essex | |||||||||
| Gloucester | |||||||||
| Hudson | |||||||||
| Hunterdon | |||||||||
| Mercer | |||||||||
| Middlesex | |||||||||
| Monmouth | |||||||||
| Morris | |||||||||
| Ocean | |||||||||
| Passaic | |||||||||
| Salem | |||||||||
| Somerset | |||||||||
| Sussex | |||||||||
| Union | |||||||||
| Warren | |||||||||
| Totals | |||||||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
| District | Sherrill | Ciattarelli | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 63.2% | 36.2% | Donald Norcross |
| 2nd | 45.6% | 53.8% | Jeff Van Drew |
| 3rd | 56.9% | 42.6% | Herb Conaway |
| 4th | 35.3% | 64.2% | Chris Smith |
| 5th | 52.9% | 46.7% | Josh Gottheimer |
| 6th | 60.2% | 39.1% | Frank Pallone |
| 7th | Thomas Kean Jr. | ||
| 8th | 74.8% | 24.2% | Rob Menendez |
| 9th | 59.0% | 40.3% | Nellie Pou |
| 10th | 85.9% | 13.2% | LaMonica McIver |
| 11th | 57.0% | 42.6% | Mikie Sherrill |
| 12th | 65.7% | 33.6% | Bonnie Watson Coleman |
According to a CNN exit poll, Sherrill won 94% of Black voters, 68% of Hispanic voters, and 82% of Asian voters. Sherrill also won 54% of White women. [416]
| Demographic subgroup | Sherrill | Ciattarelli | % of total vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ideology | |||
| Liberals | 94 | 6 | 34 |
| Moderates | 62 | 37 | 33 |
| Conservatives | 11 | 88 | 33 |
| Party | |||
| Democrats | 97 | 2 | 38 |
| Republicans | 7 | 92 | 31 |
| Independents | 56 | 43 | 31 |
| Donald Trump job approval | |||
| Approve | 8 | 92 | 42 |
| Disapprove | 93 | 6 | 56 |
| Most important issue facing New Jersey | |||
| Economy | 66 | 33 | 32 |
| Taxes | 37 | 62 | 34 |
| Healthcare | 92 | 7 | 16 |
| Immigration | 28 | 71 | 7 |
| 2024 presidential vote | |||
| Kamala Harris | 97 | 3 | 50 |
| Donald Trump | 7 | 93 | 42 |
| Another candidate | 63 | 30 | 2 |
| Did not vote | 65 | 31 | 3 |
| Gender | |||
| Men | 49 | 50 | 47 |
| Women | 62 | 37 | 53 |
| Income | |||
| $200,000 or more | 57 | 43 | 19 |
| $100,000-$199,999 | 53 | 47 | 33 |
| $50,000-$99,999 | 51 | 49 | 26 |
| Less than $50,000 | 71 | 28 | 23 |
| Race/ethnicity | |||
| White | 47 | 52 | 70 |
| Asian | 82 | 17 | 5 |
| Latino | 68 | 31 | 10 |
| Black | 94 | 5 | 10 |
| Race/ethnicity by gender | |||
| White men | 41 | 59 | 34 |
| White women | 54 | 46 | 36 |
| Black men | 92 | 7 | 4 |
| Black women | 95 | 4 | 6 |
| Latino men | 61 | 38 | 5 |
| Latina women | 73 | 26 | 6 |
| All other voters | 69 | 29 | 10 |
| Age | |||
| 18–29 years old | 69 | 31 | 11 |
| 30–44 years old | 67 | 32 | 19 |
| 45-64 years old | 51 | 48 | 34 |
| 65 and older | 51 | 48 | 35 |
| Area type | |||
| Urban | 84 | 15 | 7 |
| Suburban | 54 | 45 | 93 |
| Education | |||
| College graduate | 62 | 38 | 55 |
| No college degree | 50 | 49 | 45 |
| Education by race | |||
| White college graduates | 55 | 45 | 40 |
| Non-white college graduates | 79 | 21 | 15 |
| Whites without college | 37 | 63 | 31 |
| Non-whites without college | 75 | 23 | 15 |
| Education by gender and race | |||
| White women with college degrees | 62 | 38 | 20 |
| White women without college degrees | 43 | 57 | 16 |
| White men with college degrees | 48 | 52 | 18 |
| White men without college degrees | 31 | 69 | 15 |
| Voters of color | 77 | 22 | 30 |
| Educational attainment | |||
| Advanced degree | 68 | 32 | 23 |
| Bachelor's degree | 64 | 36 | 31 |
| Associate's degree | 55 | 45 | 10 |
| Some college | 53 | 46 | 15 |
| Never attended college | 45 | 54 | 21 |
Partisan clients
Kranjac will have the backing of Mike Crispi, the chairman of America First Republicans of New Jersey. Crispi, who launched an exploratory committee last year, said tonight that he will not run for governor.
Brinson announced that she would remain in the race as a write-in candidate.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)In New Jersey, the state's two Democratic senators, Cory Booker and Andy Kim, campaigned for Sherrill, along with Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego and Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy.
Nine piping unions are included in this endorsement: Steamfitters Local 475; Plumbers Local 24; Pipefitters Local 274; Sprinklerfitters Local 696; Plumbers and Pipefitters Local 322; Sprinklerfitters Local 692; Sprinklerfitters Local 669; Gas and Utility Workers Local 855, and Plumbers and Pipefitters Local 9.
The UFCW Locals 152, 312, 360, 464A, 888, and 1262... said [Sherrill] is best prepared to support the state's unions and working people.
Official campaign websites
Official write-in campaign websites