2008 United States Senate election in New Jersey

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2008 United States Senate election in New Jersey
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  Frank Lautenberg, official portrait, 112th portrait crop.jpg Richard Alan Zimmer portrait (cropped).gif
Nominee Frank Lautenberg Dick Zimmer
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote1,951,2181,461,025
Percentage56.03%41.95%
2008 United States Senate election in New Jersey results map by county.svg
2008 United States Senate election in New Jersey results map by congressional district.svg
2008 United States Senate election in New Jersey results map by municipality.svg
Lautenberg:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Zimmer:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
U.S. senator before election

Frank Lautenberg
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Frank Lautenberg
Democratic

The 2008 United States Senate election in New Jersey was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg won re-election to a fifth, non-consecutive term, defeating former Republican congressman Dick Zimmer, who was also the nominee for this seat in 1996. This election, alongside the concurrent Senate election in Minnesota, was the last U.S. Senate election in which both major party candidates were Jewish. [1]

Contents

Background

In November 2006, Senator Lautenberg had the lowest approval rating of any Democratic incumbent running for re-election in 2008 (with 39% of respondents approving and 45% disapproving), [2] with his approval improving only slightly to 42% as of September 2007. In September 2007, his approval had improved slightly to 42%, but 46% of respondents in the same survey believed that Lautenberg did not deserve re-election (against 36% who believed he did) and 54% believed that he was too old to effectively serve another six-year term in the Senate. [3]

However, the prevailing political climate at the time of the election was also a major factor. Voter anger was directed against the Republican Party, and many Democrats once considered vulnerable managed to hold on.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Polling

SourceDateFrank
Lautenberg		Rob
Andrews
Joel Benenson [4] April 1–2, 200852%21%
Rasmussen Reports [5] May 15, 200849%19%

Results

Democratic primary results [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Frank Lautenberg (incumbent) 203,012 58.9%
Democratic Rob Andrews 121,77735.3%
Democratic Donald Cresitello 19,7435.7%
Total votes344,532 100.0%

Results by county

Results by county
CountyLautenberg%Andrews%Cresitello%
Atlantic4,79845.4%5,28750.1%4724.5%
Bergen26,84878.9%5,64516.6%1,5544.6%
Burlington7,75742.4%9,48351.8%1,0595.8%
Camden5,99516.5%29,17580.1%1,2563.4%
Cape May1,43345.4%1,56649.6%1595.0%
Cumberland1,74646.1%1,79947.5%2466.5%
Essex31,84476.4%8,67120.8%1,1902.9%
Gloucester3,13517.0%14,77580.0%5633.0%
Hudson28,44674.8%8,23321.7%1,3433.5%
Hunterdon2,06158.8%1,18033.7%2647.5%
Mercer10,09374.0%3,05322.4%4943.6%
Middlesex17,13162.0%7,91828.7%2,5739.3%
Monmouth10,57066.3%3,56822.4%1,80811.3%
Morris8,43265.0%3,15124.3%1,39410.7%
Ocean8,86957.9%5,03732.9%1,4219.3%
Passaic9,84279.3%1,70013.7%8727.0%
Salem92831.9%1,73459.6%2488.5%
Somerset5,64064.7%2,20925.3%87310.0%
Sussex1,37952.7%78429.9%45617.4%
Union15,10367.6%6,17927.7%1,0604.7%
Warren96247.4%63031.0%43821.6%

Republican primary

Candidates

Withdrew

Declined

Results

Republican primary results [6]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Dick Zimmer 84,663 45.8%
Republican Joseph Pennacchio 74,54640.3%
Republican Murray Sabrin 25,57613.8%
Total votes184,785 100.0%

Official results, New Jersey Division of Elections (PDF, July 11, 2008)

Results by county

CountyZimmer%Pennacchio%Sabrin%
Atlantic3,90965%1,32222%81013%
Bergen5,14530%10,76162%1,3848%
Burlington8,62963%2,86921%2,27616%
Camden3,12349%2,16634%1,03616%
Cape May3,61570%1,03420%4839%
Cumberland1,56672%39518%22510%
Essex3,59257%2,26236%4938%
Gloucester1,20626%2,16147%1,25427%
Hudson1,48748%95531%64121%
Hunterdon5,51960%2,73030%97711%
Mercer2,55556%1,53834%48811%
Middlesex2,60333%4,19554%1,02113%
Monmouth7,98156%4,63033%1,51011%
Morris8,09436%12,70056%1,8558%
Ocean10,87548%4,82021%6,77830%
Passaic1,27120%4,57072%5458%
Salem76947%65741%19312%
Somerset5,22746%4,87543%1,17010%
Sussex2,85040%3,62151%6479%
Union2,89632%4,65352%1,38815%
Warren1,75146%1,63243%40211%

General election

Candidates

Debates

The first poll conducted after the primaries showed a tighter than expected race between Lautenberg and Zimmer, with the two candidates in a virtual tie. [13]

On October 29, 2008, a debate between Lautenberg and Zimmer was held on the radio station NJ 101.5. [14]

On November 1, 2008, the two candidates debated for the second time on New Jersey Network, in the only televised debate agreed to by the Lautenberg campaign. [15]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [16] Safe DOctober 23, 2008
CQ Politics [17] Likely DOctober 31, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report [18] Safe DNovember 2, 2008
Real Clear Politics [19] Likely DOctober 31, 2008

Polling

SourceDateFrank
Lautenberg (D)		Dick
Zimmer (R)
Rasmussen Reports [20] June 4, 200845%44%
Quinnipiac University [21] June 5–8, 200847%38%
Fairleigh Dickinson University [22] June 17–22, 200845%28%
Rasmussen Reports [23] July 7, 200849%36%
Strategic Vision [24] July 11–13, 200848%32%
Monmouth University [25] July 17–21, 200845%37%
Club for Growth [26] July 30–31, 200835%36%
Rasmussen Reports [27] August 4, 200851%33%
Quinnipiac University [28] August 4–10, 200848%41%
Fairleigh Dickinson University [29] September 4–7, 200846%35%
Marist College [30] September 5–8, 200851%40%
The Record [31] / Research 2000 [32] September 9–11, 200849%41%
Quinnipiac University [33] September 10–14, 200848%39%
Monmouth University [34] September 11–14, 200846%36%
Strategic Vision [35] September 14–16, 200847%40%
Rasmussen Reports [36] September 16, 200849%42%
Survey USA [37] September 27–28, 200851%38%
Strategic Vision [38] September 26–28, 200848%41%
Fairleigh Dickinson University [39] September 29 – October 5, 200850%34%
Rasmussen Reports [23] October 7, 200851%37%
Survey USA [40] October 11–12, 200851%38%
Monmouth University [41] October 15–18, 200852%36%
Quinnipiac University [42] October 16–19, 200855%33%
Marist College [43] October 20–21, 200848%41%
Strategic Vision [44] October 24–26, 200849%41%
Survey USA [45] October 29–30, 200852%37%

Results

2008 United States Senate election in New Jersey
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Frank Lautenberg (incumbent) 1,951,218 56.03% +2.15%
Republican Dick Zimmer 1,461,02541.95%−2.00%
Independent Daryl Mikell Brooks20,9200.60%n/a
Libertarian Jason Scheurer18,8100.54%−0.05
Independent J.M. Carter15,9350.46%n/a
Independent Jeff Boss 10,3450.30%n/a
Socialist Workers Sara Lobman9,1870.26%n/a
Total votes3,482,445 100.00% n/a
Democratic hold

See also

References

  1. ↑ Rudin, Ken (July 23, 2008). "Who Will Succeed Obama Or McCain In The Senate?". NPR . Retrieved September 10, 2024.
  2. ↑ "Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #11152". SurveyUSA. November 2006. Retrieved February 5, 2007.
  3. ↑ "Voters still say Lautenberg is too old". PolitickerNJ.com, September 25, 2007. Accessed April 8, 2008.
  4. ↑ Joel Benenson
  5. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  6. 1 2 Official results for 2008 primary elections, New Jersey Division of Elections, July 11, 2008 Archived August 6, 2008, at the Wayback Machine )
  7. ↑ PolitickerNJ (March 6, 2008). "Bateman considers U.S. Senate bid". Observer. Retrieved August 21, 2021. The race changed yesterday with the surprise withdrawal of Anne Evans Estabrook, a millionaire businesswoman who had courted party leaders for almost a year. Estabrook suffered a mini-stroke on Monday and decided to quickly exit the contest.
  8. ↑ Krashuaar, Josh (April 11, 2008). "New Jersey Senate merry-go-round continues". Politico. Retrieved August 21, 2021. Former Goya Foods executive Andrew Unanue, whose campaign was controversy-ridden ever since he announced his candidacy on Easter Sunday, withdrew from the race today and threw his support behind former GOP Rep. Dick Zimmer.
  9. ↑ PolitickerNJ (March 6, 2008). "Bateman considers U.S. Senate bid". Observer. Retrieved August 21, 2021.
  10. ↑ Wildstein, David (January 12, 2023). "Democrats to Dr. Oz: run for office as a Republican in New Jersey, please". New Jersey Globe. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
  11. 1 2 3 4 5 2008 General Election Candidate Certification Archived October 1, 2008, at the Wayback Machine , New Jersey Division of Elections. Accessed September 28, 2008
  12. ↑ "Home". carlpeterklapper.org. Retrieved May 7, 2023.
  13. ↑ "Election 2008: New Jersey Senate - New Jersey Senate Race a Dead Heat" Archived June 22, 2008, at the Wayback Machine , Rasmussen Reports, June 9, 2008. Accessed June 9, 2008.
  14. ↑ Burton, Cynthia. "Lautenberg and Zimmer spar over issues", The Philadelphia Inquirer , October 30, 2008.
  15. ↑ Schwaneberg, Robert. Lautenberg, Zimmer agree to debate on Nov. 1, The Star-Ledger , October 1, 2008.
  16. ↑ "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  17. ↑ Race Ratings Chart: Senate Archived October 31, 2008, at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics
  18. ↑ "2008 Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  19. ↑ "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
  20. ↑ "Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election". Archived from the original on June 22, 2008.
  21. ↑ Quinnipiac University
  22. ↑ Fairleigh Dickinson University
  23. 1 2 Rasmussen Reports
  24. ↑ Strategic Vision
  25. ↑ Monmouth University
  26. ↑ "The Club For Growth - www.clubforgrowth.org". www.clubforgrowth.org. Archived from the original on October 23, 2008. Retrieved January 11, 2022.
  27. ↑ "Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election". Archived from the original on September 12, 2008.
  28. ↑ Quinnipiac University
  29. ↑ Fairleigh Dickinson University
  30. ↑ Marist College Archived September 13, 2008, at the Wayback Machine
  31. ↑ The Record
  32. ↑ Research 2000
  33. ↑ Quinnipiac University
  34. ↑ Monmouth University
  35. ↑ Strategic Vision
  36. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  37. ↑ Survey USA
  38. ↑ Strategic Vision
  39. ↑ Fairleigh Dickinson University
  40. ↑ Survey USA
  41. ↑ Monmouth University
  42. ↑ Quinnipiac University
  43. ↑ Marist College Archived January 9, 2009, at the Wayback Machine
  44. ↑ Strategic Vision
  45. ↑ Survey USA
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