2008 United States Senate election in New Hampshire

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2008 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
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←  2002 November 4, 2008 2014  →
  Jeanne Shaheen, official Senate portrait cropped.jpg John E. Sununu.jpg
Nominee Jeanne Shaheen John E. Sununu
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote358,438314,403
Percentage51.62%45.28%
2008 United States Senate election in New Hampshire results map by county.svg
2008 United States Senate election in New Hampshire results map by municipality.svg
Shaheen:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     >90%
Sununu:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Tie:     40–50%
U.S. senator before election

John E. Sununu
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Jeanne Shaheen
Democratic

The United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator John E. Sununu ran for re-election to a second term, but was defeated by Democrat Jeanne Shaheen in a rematch of the 2002 election. Shaheen's win marked the first time since 1972 that Democrats won this seat, and made her the first Democratic Senator elected from New Hampshire since John A. Durkin's victory in 1975.

Contents

Background

For a considerable amount of time, New Hampshire had always been considered an island of conservatism in the Northeast. Following the 2006 election, however, many offices were taken over by Democrats: Representatives Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes, Governor John Lynch, the majority of the New Hampshire Executive Council, and the majority of both legislative chambers (which had not occurred since 1911). [1] The popularity of Governor Lynch was considered an impediment to Sununu's re-election. [2] Though the state voted for then-Gov. George W. Bush in 2000, Sen. John Kerry narrowly won the state over Bush in 2004.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Campaign

Shaheen, the Democratic nominee, at a rally in the lead-up to the election. Jeanne Shaheen 2008 NH.jpg
Shaheen, the Democratic nominee, at a rally in the lead-up to the election.

Astronaut Jay Buckey MD, Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, and Katrina Swett, (wife of former Congressman Richard Swett), had announced their candidacies but withdrew in favor of former governor Jeanne Shaheen upon her entrance into the race. [3]

Shaheen had been the Democratic nominee for the race in 2002. Since 2005, Shaheen had served as director of the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School before leaving on September 14, 2007. She had been aggressively courted to run by Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) on behalf of Senate Democrats, and by a "Draft Shaheen" campaign led by former New Hampshire Democratic Chairman Kathy Sullivan.

The filing deadline for the Democratic and Republican Parties was June 13, 2008. Shaheen filed, as did Raymond Stebbins. [4]

Results

Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Jeanne Shaheen 43,968 88.5%
Democratic Raymond Stebbins5,28110.6%
Write-in 4070.8%
Total votes49,656 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Results

Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican John Sununu (incumbent) 60,852 88.7%
Republican Tom Alciere7,08410.3%
Write-in 6851.0%
Total votes68,621 100.0%

General election

Candidates

Campaign

A November 2006 SurveyUSA poll of New Hampshire voters found Sununu had a 47% approval rating. [6] A February 1, 2007 poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire found that only 45% of New Hampshire voters held a favorable opinion of Sununu. In June 2007, a poll by 7NEWS and Suffolk University of likely voters reported that only 31 percent in the poll said Sununu deserved re-election, with 47 percent saying that someone else should get his seat. [7]

A July 2008 Granite State Poll had Sununu's favorability rating at 52%, his unfavorability rating at 33%, and neutral or undecided by 16%. [8] Shaheen is viewed favorable by 53%, unfavorable by 31% and neutral or undecided by 15%. [9]

Senator John McCain, the Republican nominee for president, had mentioned Sununu as a possible running mate for the 2008 presidential election, as well as Lindsey Graham, Bob Riley, Steve Forbes and John Thune. Sununu had said he would remain neutral in the New Hampshire primary. However, McCain selected Alaska governor Sarah Palin instead.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [10] TossupOctober 23, 2008
CQ Politics [11] Lean D (flip)October 31, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report [12] Likely D (flip)November 2, 2008
Real Clear Politics [13] Lean D (flip)November 2, 2008

Polling

SourceDateJohn
Sununu (R)		Jeanne
Shaheen (D)		Ken
Blevens (L)		Undecided
American Research Group March 29, 200734%44%––22%
American Research Group June 200729%57%––14%
Research 2000 July 200734%56%––10%
WMUR-CNN July 200738%54%––7%
Rasmussen Reports September 16, 200743%48%––9%
American Research Group September 18, 200741%46%––13%
WMUR-CNN September 200738%54%––7%
SurveyUSA [ permanent dead link ]November 5, 200742%53%––5%
American Research Group December 20, 200752%41%––7%
Granite State Poll February 11, 200837%54%––7%
Rasmussen Reports February 13, 200841%49%––––
American Research Group March 20, 200833%47%––20%
Rasmussen Reports March 21, 200841%49%––––
Rasmussen Reports May 23, 200843%50%––––
American Research Group June 18, 200840%54%––6%
Rasmussen Reports June 20, 200839%53%––––
Granite State Poll July 20, 200842%46%––10%
American Research Group July 19, 200836%58%––––
Rasmussen Reports July 23, 200845%51%––––
Rasmussen Reports August 19, 200843%52%––––
American Research Group August 18, 200841%52%––7%
Public Opinion Strategies September 3, 200844%46%3%5%
American Research Group September 13, 200840%52%––8%
Granite State Poll September 14, 200844%48%––7%
Rasmussen Reports September 23, 200852%45%1%2%
Rasmussen Reports October 1, 200845%50%1%3%
Rasmussen Reports October 23, 200846%52%––––
Rasmussen Reports October 30, 200844%52%––––
Survey USA October 30, 200840%53%6%2%

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Jeanne Shaheen (D)$8,273,501.00$8,225,580.00$47,920.00$120,630.00
John Sununu (R)$8,879,307.00$8,868,017.00$104,187.00$0
Source: Federal Election Commission [14]

Results

Results by municipality. Nh senate race 2008.png
Results by municipality.
2008 United States Senate election in New Hampshire
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Jeanne Shaheen 358,438 51.62% +4.95%
Republican John Sununu (incumbent)314,40345.28%-5.83%
Libertarian Ken Blevens21,5163.10%+0.89%
Total votes694,357 100.0% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

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References

  1. ↑ Storm of change sweeps through N.H. Legislature
  2. ↑ "Can Sununu Hold on in New Hampshire?". Real Clear Politics. July 30, 2007. Retrieved July 30, 2007.[ dead link ]
  3. ↑ Swett Drops Out Of NH Senate Race [ permanent dead link ] WCSH 6 September 21, 2007. Retrieved September 22, 2007
  4. ↑ Democratic Party Cumulative Filings Archived June 5, 2011, at the Wayback Machine New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved June 15, 2008.
  5. ↑ Republican Party Cumulative Filings Archived June 5, 2011, at the Wayback Machine New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved June 15, 2008.
  6. ↑ Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #11151, conducted November 2006
  7. ↑ Ralph Z. Hallow, "N.H. poll puts Gore over Clinton", Washington Times, June 27, 2007
  8. ↑ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 7, 2008. Retrieved July 31, 2008.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  9. ↑ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 7, 2008. Retrieved July 31, 2008.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  10. ↑ "2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  11. ↑ Race Ratings Chart: Senate Archived October 28, 2010, at the Wayback Machine CQ Politics
  12. ↑ "2008 Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved April 1, 2021.
  13. ↑ "2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved August 31, 2021.
  14. ↑ "New Hampshire 2008 Senate race fundraising".
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