2018 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

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2018 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
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  GOV SUNUNU OFFICIAL PHOTO (cropped).jpg Molly Kelly 2018.jpg
Nominee Chris Sununu Molly Kelly
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote302,764262,359
Percentage52.78%45.74%
2018 New Hampshire gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2018 New Hampshire gubernatorial election results map by municipality.svg
2018 New Hampshire gubernatorial election results by congressional district.svg
NH Governor 2018.svg
Sununu:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Kelly:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     No votes
Governor before election

Chris Sununu
Republican

Elected Governor

Chris Sununu
Republican

The 2018 New Hampshire gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of New Hampshire. Incumbent Republican governor Chris Sununu won re-election to a second term, defeating former state senator Molly Kelly. Sununu was the first incumbent Republican to win reelection as governor since Steve Merrill was reelected in 1994.

Contents

Primary elections were held on September 11, 2018. The gubernatorial election was coincident with races for the state legislature and the United States House of Representatives. This was one of eight Republican-held governorships up for election in a state won by Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.

Background

New Hampshire is one of only two states, along with Vermont, where governors are elected to two-year terms. Republican Chris Sununu was elected in the 2016 election. [1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Chris
Sununu		OtherUndecided
TargetPoint/GQR [3] March 8–15, 2018326± 5.4%77%9%14%

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Sununu-->=90% 2018 NH GOV GOP primary.svg
Results by county:
  Sununu—≥90%
Republican primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Chris Sununu (incumbent) 91,025 98.3
Democratic Molly Kelly (write-in)5770.6
Democratic Steve Marchand (write-in)1600.2
Libertarian Jiletta Jarvis (write-in)900.0
Libertarian Aaron Day (write-in)390.0
Scattering6920.7
Total votes92,583 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Mark
Connolly		Molly
Kelly		Steve
Marchand		OtherUndecided
Suffolk University [12] April 26–30, 2018401––21%19%–58%
TargetPoint/GQR [3] March 8–15, 2018346± 5.3%9%17%11%4%58%

Results

Results by county: Kelly--70-80% Kelly--60-70% 2018 NH GOV Dem primary.svg
Results by county:
  Kelly—70–80%
  Kelly—60–70%
Democratic primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Molly Kelly 80,598 65.5
Democratic Steve Marchand 41,61233.8
Republican Chris Sununu (write-in) (incumbent)5630.5
Libertarian Jiletta Jarvis (write-in)170.0
Libertarian Aaron Day (write-in)80.0
Scattering1670.1
Total votes122,965 100.0

Libertarian primary

Jilletta Jarvis was the Libertarian candidate in the election. Jilletta Jarvis, 2018.jpg
Jilletta Jarvis was the Libertarian candidate in the election.

Candidates

Declared

Results

Results by county: Jarvis--60-70% Jarvis--50-60% Jarvis--40-50% Day--40-50% Day--50-60% 2018 NH GOV Libertarian primary.svg
Results by county:
  Jarvis—60–70%
  Jarvis—50–60%
  Jarvis—40–50%
  Day—40–50%
  Day—50–60%
Libertarian Primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Jilletta Jarvis 576 51.9
Libertarian Aaron Day48743.9
Republican Chris Sununu (write-in) (incumbent)211.9
Democratic Molly Kelly (write-in)90.8
Democratic Steve Marchand (write-in)60.5
Scattering111.0
Total votes1,110 100.0

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [17] Lean ROctober 26, 2018
The Washington Post [18] Lean RNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [19] Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report [20] Lean RNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [21] Lean RNovember 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [22] TossupNovember 4, 2018
Daily Kos [23] Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [24] [a] Lean RNovember 5, 2018
Politico [25] Lean RNovember 5, 2018
Governing [26] Lean RNovember 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ↑ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements

Molly Kelly (D)

Former U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Local and state politicians

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Chris
Sununu (R)		Molly
Kelly (D)		Jilletta
Jarvis (L)		OtherUndecided
University of New Hampshire [59] November 1–4, 2018630± 3.9%46%46%2%0%6%
Change Research (D-NH Democratic Party) [60] October 27–29, 2018901–47%46%–––
Emerson College [61] October 27–29, 20181,139± 3.7%51%43%1%–5%
University of New Hampshire [62] October 10–18, 2018499± 4.4%50%39%4%–7%
Saint Anselm College [63] October 10–15, 2018454± 4.6%49%39%1%0%12%
Emerson College [64] October 10–12, 2018625± 4.2%51%35%1%–14%
American Research Group [65] September 21–26, 2018800± 3.5%49%44%–0%7%
University of New Hampshire [66] August 2–19, 2018389± 5.0%48%32%–5%16%
Suffolk University [67] April 26–30, 2018800± 3.5%48%27%4%–21%
University of New Hampshire [68] April 13–22, 2018379± 5.0%51%24%2%4%20%
Hypothetical polling

with Steve Marchand

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Chris
Sununu (R)		Steve
Marchand (D)		Jilletta
Jarvis (L)		OtherUndecided
University of New Hampshire [66] August 2–19, 2018389± 5.0%48%33%–4%15%
Suffolk University [69] April 26–30, 2018800± 3.5%49%25%4%–21%
University of New Hampshire [68] April 13–22, 2018379± 5.0%49%24%2%2%20%
University of New Hampshire [70] January 28 – February 10, 2018381± 5.0%42%28%––30%

with Chris Sununu and generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Chris
Sununu (R)		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
Praecones Analytica [71] August 13–15, 2018626± 3.9%47%33%20%

with generic Republican and Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Generic
Republican		Generic
Democrat		OtherUndecided
TargetPoint/GQR [3] March 8–15, 2018600± 4.0%43%39%4%14%

with Mark Connolly

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Chris
Sununu (R)		Mark
Connolly (D)		OtherUndecided
University of New Hampshire [70] January 28 – February 10, 2018381± 5.0%41%29%–30%

with Sununu and Van Ostern

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Chris
Sununu (R)		Colin
Van Ostern (D)		Undecided
University of New Hampshire [70] January 28 – February 10, 2018381± 5.0%41%31%28%

Results

2018 New Hampshire gubernatorial election [72]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Chris Sununu (incumbent) 302,764 52.78% +3.94%
Democratic Molly Kelly 262,35945.74%−0.83%
Libertarian Jilletta Jarvis8,1971.43%−2.88%
Write-in 2820.05%-0.23%
Total votes573,602 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

By county

2018 Gubernatorial election results in New Hampshire (by county) [73]
CountyMolly Kelly
Democratic		Chris Sununu
Republican		Other votesMarginTotal
votes
# %# %# %#%#
Belknap 9,69036.00%16,85662.62%3741.39%7,16626.62%26,920
Carroll 10,43243.46%13,30855.44%2651.10%2,87611.98%24,005
Cheshire 18,15855.80%13,87542.64%5091.56%-4,283-13.16%32,542
Coös 4,98842.96%6,39755.10%2251.94%1,40912.14%11,610
Grafton 22,93256.89%16,73441.52%6421.59%-6,198-15.37%40,308
Hillsborough 72,03344.34%87,84654.07%2,5891.59%15,8139.73%162,468
Merrimack 30,54046.97%33,51351.54%9721.49%2,9734.57%65,025
Rockingham 59,26942.29%79,19556.50%1,6991.21%19,92614.21%140,163
Strafford 26,59349.89%25,78248.37%9311.75%-811-1.52%53,306
Sullivan 7,72444.76%9,25853.65%2731.58%1,5348.89%17,255

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Sununu won both congressional districts, which simultaneously elected Democrats. [74]

DistrictSununuKellyRepresentative
1st 54.64%44.01% Chris Pappas
2nd 50.91%47.58% Annie Kuster

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References

  1. ↑ Ramer, Holly (November 9, 2016). "Sununu chosen as N.H. governor". Concord Monitor. Associated Press. Retrieved November 9, 2016.
  2. ↑ Bookman, Todd (October 4, 2017). "To No One's Surprise, Sununu Confirms He's Running for Re-Election". New Hampshire Public Radio . Retrieved October 5, 2017.
  3. 1 2 3 TargetPoint/GQR
  4. 1 2 3 "Results". Archived from the original on January 28, 2020. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  5. ↑ DiStaso, John (April 5, 2018). "NH Primary Source: Molly Kelly to announce gubernatorial decision next week". WMUR. Retrieved April 6, 2018.
  6. ↑ Tuohy, Dan (April 3, 2017). "Marchand says he's running for governor". New Hampshire Union Leader. Archived from the original on April 6, 2017. Retrieved April 7, 2017.
  7. ↑ Sexton, Adam (March 11, 2018). "Feltes rules out run for governor". WMUR . Retrieved March 12, 2018.
  8. ↑ DiStaso, John (July 20, 2017). "Pappas heads north, says it's about the ice cream". WMUR . Retrieved September 27, 2017.
  9. ↑ DiStaso, John (November 9, 2017). "Democrat Pappas announces candidacy for 1st District US House seat". WMUR-TV . Retrieved November 9, 2017.
  10. ↑ LANDRIGAN, KEVIN (March 13, 2018). "Van Ostern to challenge Gardner for Secretary of State position". New Hampshire Union Leader . Archived from the original on July 23, 2018. Retrieved July 22, 2018.
  11. ↑ Solomon, David (September 27, 2017). "Executive Councilor Volinsky won't run for governor in 2018". New Hampshire Union Leader . Archived from the original on September 27, 2017. Retrieved September 27, 2017.
  12. ↑ Suffolk University Archived 2018-05-03 at the Wayback Machine
  13. ↑ "Free State Project Early Movers: FSP Chairman Aaron Day". February 12, 2016. Retrieved September 12, 2018.
  14. ↑ DiStaso, John (June 7, 2018). "NH Primary Source: Libertarian Party of NH may have primary for governor" . Retrieved September 12, 2018.
  15. ↑ DiStaso, John (April 3, 2017). "Updated NH Primary Source". WMUR . Retrieved April 22, 2017.
  16. ↑ Freeman, Ian (March 25, 2017). "Libertarian Jilletta Jarvis Announces Campaign for NH Governor in 2018!". Free Keene. Retrieved April 22, 2017.
  17. ↑ "2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 10, 2021.
  18. ↑ "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post . October 16, 2018.
  19. ↑ "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. October 17, 2018. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
  20. ↑ "2018 Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
  21. ↑ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
  22. ↑ "2018 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics . October 9, 2018.
  23. ↑ "2018 Governor Race Ratings". Daily Kos . June 5, 2018.[ permanent dead link ]
  24. ↑ "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News . August 2022.
  25. ↑ "Politico Race Ratings". Politico .
  26. ↑ "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Archived from the original on October 21, 2018. Retrieved July 18, 2018.
  27. ↑ Hillary Clinton. ".@NHMollyKelly is an experienced leader and tireless fighter running for New Hampshire governor. She'll fight to improve economic security for working families and expand opportunity for all". Twitter.
  28. ↑ Barack Obama. "Today, I'm proud to endorse even more Democratic candidates who aren't just running against something, but for something—to expand opportunity for all of us and to restore dignity, honor, and compassion to public service. They deserve your vote". Twitter.
  29. ↑ Molly Kelly. "Thanks to @CoryBooker for joining me at a @NHYoungDems rally at UNH. Too many young people are leaving NH because they don't see opportunities – that's got to change. I'll listen to young people and enact friendly public policies that encourage them to stay in our great state". Twitter.
  30. ↑ Rogers, Josh (June 5, 2018). "Hassan Endorses Kelly For Governor". nhpr.org/. New Hampshire Public Radio.
  31. ↑ DiStaso, John (May 2, 2018). "NH Primary Source: Shaheen endorses Molly Kelly for governor". WMUR.
  32. ↑ Elizabeth Warren. "Nobody should have to live 1 family emergency away from financial disaster. Help Molly Kelly fight back in NH". Twitter.
  33. ↑ Staff, Sentinel (April 20, 2018). "Political notebook: Kuster endorses Kelly for governor". SentinelSource.com.
  34. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 "Open Letter in Support of Molly Kelly for Governor" (PDF). Retrieved April 11, 2023.
  35. ↑ "Mayor Joyce Craig Endorses Molly Kelly For NH Governor". NH LABOR NEWS. June 14, 2018.
  36. 1 2 3 4 5 DiStaso, John (April 12, 2018). "NH Primary Source first: Top Democratic state lawmakers endorse Kelly for governor". WMUR.
  37. ↑ DiStaso, John (July 26, 2018). "NH Primary Source: State Sen. Hennessy shifts support from Marchand to Kelly". WMUR.
  38. ↑ "Senator Donna Soucy Announces Support For Molly Kelly For NH Governor". NH LABOR NEWS. September 6, 2018.
  39. ↑ Misha Collins [@mishacollins] (April 13, 2018). "Yes! Molly is on #MishasList too!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  40. ↑ "Sen. Molly Kelly's Commitment To Public Education Earns Support From AFT-NH". NH LABOR NEWS. August 7, 2018.
  41. ↑ Padellaro, Jeffrey (May 10, 2018). "Teamsters back Kelly in first union endorsement of governor's race". Teamsters Local 633.
  42. ↑ Tuttle, Megan (June 15, 2018). "NEA-NH Announces Recommendation of Molly Kelly for Governor". NEA-NH.
  43. ↑ "New Hampshire AFL-CIO Candidate Endorsements | New Hampshire AFL-CIO". nhaflcio.org. New Hampshire AFL-CIO. September 22, 2018.
  44. ↑ Gulla, Richard (September 26, 2018). "Press release: Molly Kelly for Governor". www.seiu1984.org. SEA/SEIU Local 1984 Board of Directors. Archived from the original on September 29, 2018. Retrieved September 29, 2018.
  45. ↑ Schriock, Stephanie (April 13, 2018). "EMILY's List Endorses Molly Kelly for Governor of New Hampshire". www.emilyslist.org.
  46. ↑ DiStaso, John (September 25, 2018). "End Citizens United PAC endorses Molly Kelly for governor". WMUR.
  47. ↑ "Endorsed Candidates – Fight For Reform". Fight For Reform.
  48. ↑ "Chris Christie visits NH, blasts Penn. officials for not joining Trump after synagogue attack". Associated Press. November 1, 2018.
  49. ↑ Chooljian, Lauren (March 23, 2018). "Pence of Sununu: 'He's a Man Like President Trump ... 'a Man of Action'". New Hampshire Public Radio .
  50. ↑ Ropeik, Annie (October 16, 2018). "Electrical Workers Union Endorses Sununu For Governor". New Hampshire Public Radio .
  51. ↑ Chris Sununu. "It is an honor to receive the endorsement of @NFIB — the nation's leading small business association!". Twitter.
  52. ↑ DiStaso, John (June 22, 2018). "Sununu receives earliest ever NH Police Association endorsement". wmur.com.
  53. ↑ DiStaso, John (August 6, 2018). "NH Troopers Association endorses Sununu for reelection". wmur.com.
  54. ↑ "Political notebook: State firefighters union throws weight behind Sununu". The Keene Sentinel . September 27, 2018.
  55. 1 2 3 "Editorial endorsement: Gov. Sununu deserves a second term". seacoastonline.com . October 28, 2018. Retrieved October 28, 2018.
  56. ↑ "Editorial endorsement: Gov. Sununu deserves a second term". Foster's Daily Democrat . October 28, 2018. Retrieved October 28, 2018.
  57. ↑ "Telegraph endorses Sununu". Nashua Telegraph . November 4, 2018. Retrieved November 4, 2018.
  58. ↑ "Sununu for Governor: Earning a second term". Union Leader . October 12, 2018. Archived from the original on October 15, 2018. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  59. ↑ University of New Hampshire
  60. ↑ Change Research (D-NH Democratic Party)
  61. ↑ Emerson College
  62. ↑ University of New Hampshire
  63. ↑ Saint Anselm College
  64. ↑ Emerson College
  65. ↑ American Research Group
  66. 1 2 University of New Hampshire
  67. ↑ Suffolk University Archived 2018-05-03 at the Wayback Machine
  68. 1 2 University of New Hampshire
  69. ↑ Suffolk University Archived 2018-05-03 at the Wayback Machine
  70. 1 2 3 University of New Hampshire
  71. ↑ Praecones Analytica
  72. ↑ "2018 General Election Information and Results". sos.nh.gov. Archived from the original on July 31, 2020.
  73. ↑ "2018 General Election Results".
  74. ↑ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.

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