2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

Last updated

2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
Flag of Wisconsin.svg
  2012 November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06) 2024  
Turnout61.2% Decrease2.svg
  Tammy Baldwin, official portrait, 113th Congress.jpg Scott Walker campaign announcement . (19054459254) (cropped).jpg
Nominee Tammy Baldwin Leah Vukmir
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote1,472,9141,184,885
Percentage55.36%44.53%

2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin results map by county.svg
2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin election results map by congressional district.svg
WI Sen 2018.svg
Baldwin:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Vukmir:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%
     No data

U.S. senator before election

Tammy Baldwin
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Tammy Baldwin
Democratic

The 2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin took place on November 6, 2018, concurrently with a gubernatorial election and U.S. House elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin won a second term, defeating Republican challenger Leah Vukmir by more than 10 percentage points. The primary elections were held on August 14, with a filing deadline on June 1. Baldwin was unopposed for the Democratic nomination, while Vukmir defeated Charles Barman, Griffin Jones, George Lucia and Kevin Nicholson in the Republican primary. [1]

Contents

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Endorsements

Tammy Baldwin
U.S. Senators
Organizations

Results

Results by county:
Baldwin
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Baldwin--100%
Baldwin-->=90% 2018 WI US Senate D primary.svg
Results by county:
Baldwin
  •   Baldwin—100%
  •   Baldwin—≥90%
Democratic primary results [28]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Tammy Baldwin (incumbent) 510,812 99.64%
Write-in 1,8480.36%
Total votes512,660 100%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

  • Leah Vukmir, state senator and State Senate Assistant Majority Leader [29]

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Kevin Nicholson
Federal officials
U.S. Senators
State legislators
Organizations
Newspapers
Leah Vukmir
Federal officials
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Kevin
Nicholson
Leah
Vukmir
OtherUndecided
Emerson College Archived 2018-08-18 at the Wayback Machine July 26–28, 2018238± 6.5%35%35%3%27%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018355± 6.1%38%28%<1%34%
Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC) July 12–16, 2018600± 3.0%33%20%47%
Marquette University Archived 2020-03-05 at the Wayback Machine July 11–15, 2018266± 7.0%32%34%2%30%
Marquette University June 13–17, 2018274± 6.9%37%32%1%30%
Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC) June 7–12, 2018600± 3.0%28%14%58%
The Tarrance Group (R-Wisconsin Next PAC) May 31 – June 4, 2018800± 3.5%29%36%35%
American Viewpoint (R-Vukmir) May 29–31, 2018500± 4.4%32%30%
Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC) April 30 – May 3, 2018240± 6.0%46%15%
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson) April 2–4, 20181,028± 3.1%45%27%28%
Marquette University February 25 – March 1, 2018243± 8.2%28%19%2%49%
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson) January 22–23, 2018350± 5.2%48%9%1% [lower-alpha 1] 42%
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson) January 2–3, 2018350± 5.2%27%10%2% [lower-alpha 2] 60%
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson) December 6–7, 20171,004± 3.1%30%23%2% [lower-alpha 2] 45%
Notes
  1. John Schiess 1%
  2. 1 2 John Schiess 2%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
David
Clarke
Sean
Duffy
Undecided
Magellan Strategies (R) February 15–16, 2017300± 5.7%32%26%42%

Results

Results by county
Vukmir
60-70%
50-60%
40-50%
Nicholson
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
60-70% 2018 WI US Senate GOP primary.svg
Results by county
  Vukmir
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  Nicholson
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Republican primary results [28]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Leah Vukmir 217,230 48.90%
Republican Kevin Nicholson191,27643.06%
Republican George Lucia18,7864.23%
Republican Griffin Jones8,6991.96%
Republican Charles Barman7,9591.79%
Write-in 3030.07%
Total votes444,253 100%

General election

Endorsements

Leah Vukmir (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Tammy Baldwin (D)
Former U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [110] Likely DOctober 26, 2018
Inside Elections [111] Safe DNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [112] Likely DNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [113] [lower-alpha 1] Likely DNovember 5, 2018
CNN [114] Likely DNovember 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [115] Lean DNovember 5, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tammy
Baldwin (D)
Leah
Vukmir (R)
OtherUndecided
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018450± 4.6%50%39%11%
Emerson College October 29–31, 2018604± 4.1%53%44%3%
Marquette University October 24–28, 20181,154 LV± 3.2%54%43%1%
1,400 RV± 3.0%52%42%3%
Ipsos October 12–18, 20181,193± 3.0%54%39%3%5%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) October 10–11, 2018816± 3.4%52%42%6%
Marquette University October 3–7, 2018799 LV± 3.9%53%43%2%
1,000 RV± 3.6%53%42%3%
Marist College September 30 – October 3, 2018571 LV± 4.8%54%40%1%5%
781 RV± 4.1%53%40%1%6%
Ipsos September 14–24, 20181,109± 3.0%52%39%4%5%
Marquette University September 12–16, 2018614 LV± 4.4%53%42%2%
800 RV± 4.0%52%40%4%
Suffolk University Archived 2018-11-07 at the Wayback Machine August 18–24, 2018500± 4.4%50%42%8%
Marquette University August 15–19, 2018601 LV± 4.5%49%47%2%
800 RV± 4.0%51%43%4%
Emerson College Archived 2018-08-18 at the Wayback Machine July 26–28, 2018632± 4.2%50%36%4%10%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018906± 3.8%55%38%1%6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018968± 4.5%56%40%4%
Marquette University June 13–17, 2018800± 4.0%49%40%8%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) March 15–16, 2018910± 3.3%51%39%10%
Hypothetical polling
with Kevin Nicholson
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tammy
Baldwin (D)
Kevin
Nicholson (R)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College Archived 2018-08-18 at the Wayback Machine July 26–28, 2018632± 4.2%49%40%3%9%
Marist College July 15–19, 2018906± 3.8%54%39%1%6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018968± 4.5%55%42%3%
Marquette University June 13–17, 2018800± 4.0%50%39%7%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) March 15–16, 2018910± 3.3%51%38%11%
with generic Republican
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tammy
Baldwin (D)
Generic
Republican
Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios February 12 – March 5, 20181,668± 3.6%49%46%5%
with David Clarke
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tammy
Baldwin (D)
David
Clarke (R)
OtherUndecided
Magellan Strategies (R) February 9–10, 2017500± 4.4%49%35%2%14%
with Sean Duffy
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tammy
Baldwin (D)
Sean
Duffy (R)
OtherUndecided
Magellan Strategies (R) February 9–10, 2017500± 4.4%49%36%2%13%

Results

Despite initial expectations of a potentially close race, Baldwin ended up winning by over 10 percentage points, which was the highest margin of victory for a Wisconsin Democratic statewide candidate in 2018. She ran up the margins in the traditional Democratic strongholds of Milwaukee and Madison, but also won in western Wisconsin, Green Bay and most of the counties bordering Illinois, including Racine, Rock, and Kenosha counties. [116]

United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2018 [117]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Tammy Baldwin (incumbent) 1,472,914 55.36% +3.95%
Republican Leah Vukmir 1,184,88544.53%-1.33%
Write-in 2,9640.11%N/A
Total votes2,660,763 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Despite winning by over 10 percentage points, Baldwin only won 3 out of 8 Congressional districts.

DistrictVukmirBaldwinRepresentative
1st 50.3%49.6% Bryan Steil
2nd 26.4%73.4% Mark Pocan
3rd 43.5%56.4% Ron Kind
4th 21.3%78.6% Gwen Moore
5th 56.9%43.0% Jim Sensenbrenner
6th 52.4%47.5% Glenn Grothman
7th 52.2%47.7% Sean Duffy
8th 51.5%48.5% Mike Gallagher

See also

Notes

    Related Research Articles

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    References

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    2. "Sen. Baldwin prepares for re-election fight in 2018". April 19, 2017.
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    4. 1 2 "WI-Sen: Sen. Tammy Duckwoth (D. IL) Refuses To Let Cadet Bone Spurs Defeat A Fellow Tammy". Daily Kos. March 27, 2018.
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    13. 1 2 "MI, IN, WI, MN, OH & PA-Sen: Sen. Gary Peters (D. MI) Helps Senate Dems Win Big In The Midwest". Daily Kos. February 27, 2018.
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    60. 1 2 Leah Vukmir (January 22, 2018). ".@Reince knows exactly what it takes to win in Wisconsin, and I am honored to have his support for my U.S. Senate campaign. 🇺🇸#wisen #wiright #maga". Twitter.
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    63. 1 2 3 4 "RYAN & SENSENBRENNER: WE CHOOSE LEAH". RightWisconsin. June 25, 2018.
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    66. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 "Leah announces 300+ Wisconsin endorsements". medium.com. January 31, 2018.
    67. 1 2 "Join me in supporting @LeahVukmir for US Senate, a proven conservative with a record of reform that she'll take to DC! #wisenate #wiright". Twitter . October 5, 2017.
    68. 1 2 "Honored to have these leaders who helped bring about Trump's, Walker's and RoJo's election victories on my finance team. #wisen #wiright". Twitter . September 21, 2017.
    69. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Leah Reaches 400+ Grassroots Wisconsin Endorsements". medium.com. February 21, 2018.
    70. 1 2 "Joel Kleefisch: I choose Leah". medium.com. October 26, 2017.
    71. 1 2 Leah, Vukmir. "Thanks, @RepSteffen, for your endorsement! Appreciate having someone w/so much respect for our police and military on my team! 🇺🇸 #wisen". Twitter.
    72. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 "Leah Topples 200+ Grassroots Endorsements". medium.com. January 4, 2018.
    73. 1 2 "Sen. Van Wanggaard endorses Leah Vukmir for U.S. Senate". medium.com. October 16, 2017.
    74. 1 2 Glauber, Bill (March 26, 2018). "Leah Vukmir rolls up support in Wisconsin Senate race from GOP insiders and activists". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
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    78. 1 2 Wigderson, James (August 12, 2018). "WISN'S JAY WEBER ENDORSES VUKMIR FOR SENATE". RightWisconsin.
    79. 1 2 "Maggie's List Proudly Endorsed Leah Vukmir for U.S Senate". Maggie's List . December 12, 2017. Archived from the original on December 15, 2017.
    80. 1 2 "NRA-PVF | NRA Endorses State Senator Leah Vukmir for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. July 17, 2018. Archived from the original on August 16, 2023. Retrieved August 16, 2023.
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    82. 1 2 Bill Glauber (May 12, 2018). "Leah Vukmir claims U.S. Senate endorsement at Wisconsin GOP convention". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel . Archived from the original on June 14, 2018.
    83. 1 2 "ICYMI – RightNOW Women PAC Endorses Leah Vukmir". RightNOW Women . Urban Milwaukee. January 2, 2018. Archived from the original on February 4, 2018.
    84. 1 2 Waukesha Young Republicans. "Young Republicans across Waukesha County TODAY are casting their vote for our great team of proven conservatives to keep WI moving forward & bring the WI Way to DC!! #WIRight #WYR #ChooseLeah #WIYREndorsed". Twitter.
    85. Mike Pence. "Big night for Wisconsin! Congrats to my friend & one of the nation's greatest governors @ScottWalker on his primary victory. And congrats to @LeahVukmir & @BryanSteilForWI, two great future leaders of the GOP!". Twitter.
    86. Leah Vukmir. "Leah "is a strong leader who will ensure Wisconsin leads the way into the future. I am pleased to support her candidacy for the Senate." — Condoleezza Rice 🇺🇸 #wisen". Twitter.
    87. Donald J. Trump. "Congratulations to Leah Vukmir of Wisconsin on your great win last night. You beat a very tough and good competitor and will make a fantastic Senator after winning in November against someone who has done very little. You have my complete and total Endorsement!". Twitter.
    88. Ron Johnson. "Congratulations @LeahVukmir! #wisen". Twitter.
    89. Eric Trump. "Thank you WISCONSIN!!! I absolutely loved being in your incredible state in support of the amazing @LeahVukmir, @RepSeanDuffy and @RepGrothman as we work to #MakeAmericaGreatAgain! #USAUSAUSA". Twitter.
    90. "Milwaukee Police Association Endorses Leah Vukmir for U.S. Senate". Urban Milwaukee. October 29, 2018. Retrieved October 31, 2018.
    91. "U.S. Chamber of Commerce Endorses Leah Vukmir for U.S. Senate". Urban Milwaukee. October 30, 2018. Retrieved October 31, 2018.
    92. Joe Biden. "We desperately need men and women of character in elected office. That's why next Tuesday, one week out from Election Day, I'm proud to join @tammybaldwin & @Tony4WI at early vote rallies". Twitter.
    93. Barack Obama. "Today, I'm proud to endorse even more Democratic candidates who aren't just running against something, but for something—to expand opportunity for all of us and to restore dignity, honor, and compassion to public service. They deserve your vote". Twitter.
    94. Tammy Baldwin. "My friend @joekennedy is getting folks fired up today! He made some new friends at Marquette University this morning and is making sure everyone has a plan to vote!". Twitter.
    95. Gwen Moore. "I am honored to stand tall with Senator @tammybaldwin in the fight to take #WI back this November! We must work together for progress and prosperity". Twitter.
    96. Mark Pocan. "So glad to support @tammybaldwin today". Twitter.
    97. Tony Evers. "What an incredible afternoon in Milwaukee with @BarackObama, @TammyBaldwin, and our Wisconsin Democratic ticket. Our message was loud and clear: Democrats are fired up to vote and take our state back this November". Twitter.
    98. Mandela Barnes. "Are we in the cheap seats, or is there just that much support for Tammy Baldwin? The answer is yes!". Twitter.
    99. Bill de Blasio. "We have to show people their power. People talk themselves out of their power - because they're told that. You're agents of empowerment. @tammybaldwin". Twitter.
    100. Tammy Baldwin. ""We need every woman across Wisconsin to stand up with Tammy — she stands up with us every day." — @Schriock1". Twitter.
    101. Siskind, Amy [@Amy_Siskind] (October 8, 2018). "END Mitch McConnell's reign of terror. Donate/volunteer for these close senate races: Jacky Rosen, NV Phil Bredesen, TN Claire McCaskill, MO Bill Nelson, FL Joe Donnelly, IN Heidi Heitkamp, ND Beto O'Rourke, TX Kyrsten Sinema, AZ Tammy Baldwin, WI" (Tweet). Retrieved October 20, 2018 via Twitter.
    102. Tammy Baldwin. ".@WhitfordBradley was in Wausau getting folks fired up to make calls and knock doors for Tammy! As a native Wisconsinite, he knows the stakes are too high in this election to sit on the sidelines". Twitter.
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    112. Skelley, Geoffrey (June 21, 2018). "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » Senate 2018: Two Rust Belt Ratings Move in the Democrats' Direction". centerforpolitics.org. Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball.
    113. "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Fox News . Retrieved July 10, 2018.
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    116. Glauber, Bill. "Tammy Baldwin's win - the largest in a top race in Wisconsin in 12 years - offers road map for 2020". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved November 14, 2018.
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