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Turnout | 61.2% | ||||||||||||||||
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Baldwin: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Vukmir: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Wisconsin |
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The 2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin took place on November 6, 2018, concurrently with a gubernatorial election and U.S. House elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin won a second term, defeating Republican challenger Leah Vukmir by more than 10 percentage points. The primary elections were held on August 14, with a filing deadline on June 1. Baldwin was unopposed for the Democratic nomination, while Vukmir defeated Charles Barman, Griffin Jones, George Lucia and Kevin Nicholson in the Republican primary. [1]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Tammy Baldwin (incumbent) | 510,812 | 99.64% | |
Write-in | 1,848 | 0.36% | ||
Total votes | 512,660 | 100% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kevin Nicholson | Leah Vukmir | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College Archived 2018-08-18 at the Wayback Machine | July 26–28, 2018 | 238 | ± 6.5% | 35% | 35% | 3% | 27% |
Marist College | July 15–19, 2018 | 355 | ± 6.1% | 38% | 28% | <1% | 34% |
Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC) | July 12–16, 2018 | 600 | ± 3.0% | 33% | 20% | – | 47% |
Marquette University Archived 2020-03-05 at the Wayback Machine | July 11–15, 2018 | 266 | ± 7.0% | 32% | 34% | 2% | 30% |
Marquette University | June 13–17, 2018 | 274 | ± 6.9% | 37% | 32% | 1% | 30% |
Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC) | June 7–12, 2018 | 600 | ± 3.0% | 28% | 14% | – | 58% |
The Tarrance Group (R-Wisconsin Next PAC) | May 31 – June 4, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 29% | 36% | – | 35% |
American Viewpoint (R-Vukmir) | May 29–31, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 32% | 30% | – | – |
Hodas & Associates (R-Restoration PAC) | April 30 – May 3, 2018 | 240 | ± 6.0% | 46% | 15% | – | – |
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson) | April 2–4, 2018 | 1,028 | ± 3.1% | 45% | 27% | – | 28% |
Marquette University | February 25 – March 1, 2018 | 243 | ± 8.2% | 28% | 19% | 2% | 49% |
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson) | January 22–23, 2018 | 350 | ± 5.2% | 48% | 9% | 1% [lower-alpha 1] | 42% |
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson) | January 2–3, 2018 | 350 | ± 5.2% | 27% | 10% | 2% [lower-alpha 2] | 60% |
WPA Intelligence (R-Nicholson) | December 6–7, 2017 | 1,004 | ± 3.1% | 30% | 23% | 2% [lower-alpha 2] | 45% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | David Clarke | Sean Duffy | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Magellan Strategies (R) | February 15–16, 2017 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 32% | 26% | 42% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Leah Vukmir | 217,230 | 48.90% | |
Republican | Kevin Nicholson | 191,276 | 43.06% | |
Republican | George Lucia | 18,786 | 4.23% | |
Republican | Griffin Jones | 8,699 | 1.96% | |
Republican | Charles Barman | 7,959 | 1.79% | |
Write-in | 303 | 0.07% | ||
Total votes | 444,253 | 100% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [110] | Likely D | October 26, 2018 |
Inside Elections [111] | Safe D | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [112] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
Fox News [113] [lower-alpha 1] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
CNN [114] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics [115] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki wiki. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tammy Baldwin (D) | Leah Vukmir (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Research Co. | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | 50% | 39% | – | 11% |
Emerson College | October 29–31, 2018 | 604 | ± 4.1% | 53% | 44% | – | 3% |
Marquette University | October 24–28, 2018 | 1,154 LV | ± 3.2% | 54% | 43% | – | 1% |
1,400 RV | ± 3.0% | 52% | 42% | – | 3% | ||
Ipsos | October 12–18, 2018 | 1,193 | ± 3.0% | 54% | 39% | 3% | 5% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) | October 10–11, 2018 | 816 | ± 3.4% | 52% | 42% | – | 6% |
Marquette University | October 3–7, 2018 | 799 LV | ± 3.9% | 53% | 43% | – | 2% |
1,000 RV | ± 3.6% | 53% | 42% | – | 3% | ||
Marist College | September 30 – October 3, 2018 | 571 LV | ± 4.8% | 54% | 40% | 1% | 5% |
781 RV | ± 4.1% | 53% | 40% | 1% | 6% | ||
Ipsos | September 14–24, 2018 | 1,109 | ± 3.0% | 52% | 39% | 4% | 5% |
Marquette University | September 12–16, 2018 | 614 LV | ± 4.4% | 53% | 42% | – | 2% |
800 RV | ± 4.0% | 52% | 40% | – | 4% | ||
Suffolk University Archived 2018-11-07 at the Wayback Machine | August 18–24, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 50% | 42% | – | 8% |
Marquette University | August 15–19, 2018 | 601 LV | ± 4.5% | 49% | 47% | – | 2% |
800 RV | ± 4.0% | 51% | 43% | – | 4% | ||
Emerson College Archived 2018-08-18 at the Wayback Machine | July 26–28, 2018 | 632 | ± 4.2% | 50% | 36% | 4% | 10% |
Marist College | July 15–19, 2018 | 906 | ± 3.8% | 55% | 38% | 1% | 6% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 968 | ± 4.5% | 56% | 40% | – | 4% |
Marquette University | June 13–17, 2018 | 800 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 40% | – | 8% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) | March 15–16, 2018 | 910 | ± 3.3% | 51% | 39% | – | 10% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tammy Baldwin (D) | Kevin Nicholson (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College Archived 2018-08-18 at the Wayback Machine | July 26–28, 2018 | 632 | ± 4.2% | 49% | 40% | 3% | 9% |
Marist College | July 15–19, 2018 | 906 | ± 3.8% | 54% | 39% | 1% | 6% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 968 | ± 4.5% | 55% | 42% | – | 3% |
Marquette University | June 13–17, 2018 | 800 | ± 4.0% | 50% | 39% | – | 7% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) | March 15–16, 2018 | 910 | ± 3.3% | 51% | 38% | – | 11% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tammy Baldwin (D) | Generic Republican | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyMonkey/Axios | February 12 – March 5, 2018 | 1,668 | ± 3.6% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tammy Baldwin (D) | David Clarke (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Magellan Strategies (R) | February 9–10, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 35% | 2% | 14% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tammy Baldwin (D) | Sean Duffy (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Magellan Strategies (R) | February 9–10, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 49% | 36% | 2% | 13% |
Despite initial expectations of a potentially close race, Baldwin ended up winning by over 10 percentage points, which was the highest margin of victory for a Wisconsin Democratic statewide candidate in 2018. She ran up the margins in the traditional Democratic strongholds of Milwaukee and Madison, but also won in western Wisconsin, Green Bay and most of the counties bordering Illinois, including Racine, Rock, and Kenosha counties. [116]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Tammy Baldwin (incumbent) | 1,472,914 | 55.36% | +3.95% | |
Republican | Leah Vukmir | 1,184,885 | 44.53% | -1.33% | |
Write-in | 2,964 | 0.11% | N/A | ||
Total votes | 2,660,763 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic hold | |||||
Despite winning by over 10 percentage points, Baldwin only won 3 out of 8 Congressional districts.
District | Vukmir | Baldwin | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 50.3% | 49.6% | Bryan Steil |
2nd | 26.4% | 73.4% | Mark Pocan |
3rd | 43.5% | 56.4% | Ron Kind |
4th | 21.3% | 78.6% | Gwen Moore |
5th | 56.9% | 43.0% | Jim Sensenbrenner |
6th | 52.4% | 47.5% | Glenn Grothman |
7th | 52.2% | 47.7% | Sean Duffy |
8th | 51.5% | 48.5% | Mike Gallagher |
Tammy Suzanne Green Baldwin is an American politician and lawyer who has served as the junior United States senator from Wisconsin since 2013. A member of the Democratic Party, she served three terms in the Wisconsin State Assembly, representing the 78th district, and from 1999 to 2013 represented Wisconsin's 2nd congressional district in the United States House of Representatives. In 2012, Baldwin was elected to the United States Senate, defeating Republican nominee Tommy Thompson. In 2018, Baldwin was reelected, defeating Republican nominee Leah Vukmir. On April 12, 2023, Baldwin announced her candidacy for reelection in the 2024 Senate election in Wisconsin.
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