2018 New Mexico gubernatorial election

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2018 New Mexico gubernatorial election
Flag of New Mexico.svg
  2014 November 6, 2018 2022  
  Michelle Lujan Grisham official photo (cropped 2).jpg Steve Pearce official photo (cropped 2).jpg
Nominee Michelle Lujan Grisham Steve Pearce
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Howie Morales Michelle Garcia Holmes
Popular vote398,368298,091
Percentage57.20%42.80%

2018 New Mexico gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
NM Governor 2018.svg
Lujan Grisham:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Pearce:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     50%     No data

Governor before election

Susana Martinez
Republican

Elected Governor

Michelle Lujan Grisham
Democratic

The 2018 New Mexico gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of New Mexico, concurrently with the election of New Mexico's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various local elections. This was one of eight Republican-held governorships up for election in a state carried by Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.

Contents

Incumbent Republican governor Susana Martinez was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term. Following party primaries on June 5, 2018, U.S. Representative Steve Pearce was the Republican nominee and U.S. Representative Michelle Lujan Grisham was the Democratic nominee. Lujan Grisham won the election by a substantial margin, which in fact was a complete and exact reversal of the 2014 gubernatorial results. Her win also signaled a continuation of the pattern of the partisanship of the office changing every two terms, beginning with Gary Johnson's first election in 1994. Furthermore, the pattern of the partisanship changing with each officeholder was continued, a pattern first started after Toney Anaya left office in 1987. Furthermore, the margin between the candidates (57.2% to 42.8%) was the same as the previous election, albeit with the parties switched.

Background

At the presidential level, New Mexico has begun to trend into a Democratic-leaning swing state. It has gone Democratic in all but one presidential election since 1992. The only break in this trend came in 2004, when George W. Bush won it by less than a point. However, in 2008, Barack Obama won the state over John McCain by 15 points and in 2012 by 10 points over Mitt Romney. In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton defeated Republican Donald Trump by eight points.

However, in 2010, then-District Attorney of New Mexico's Third Judicial District Susana Martinez won the election, becoming the first US Latina Governor, over Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish, former running mate of two-term Democrat Bill Richardson, by approximately seven points. In 2014, Martinez was re-elected over state Attorney General Gary King by nearly 15 points. It has been described as one of the Democrats' best chances at a pickup, due to Gov. Martinez's unpopularity and because "she's leaving behind a high unemployment rate and struggling education system." [1]

The 2018 primary election results show 116,311 votes for Democratic candidate Michelle Lujan Grisham and a total of 175,182 for all three Democratic candidates while Republican candidate/nominee Steve Pearce received 74,705; note that 23% of New Mexico's registered voters are third party or independents (280,000), who do not vote in the primary election.

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates

Nominated
Declined

Results

Republican primary results [8]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Steve Pearce 75,162 100.00%
Total votes75,162 100.00%

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared
Withdrew
  • Kelly Zunie, former secretary of the New Mexico Indian Affairs Department [10] [11]
Declined

Results

Republican primary results [8]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Michelle Garcia Holmes 67,681 100.00%
Total votes67,681 100.00%

Democratic primary

Governor

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Jeff Apodaca

Local and state politicians

Individuals

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Jeff
Apodaca
Joe
Cervantes
Michelle
Lujan Grisham
OtherUndecided
Research & Polling, Inc. [35] May 20–24, 2018444 (LV)± 4.6%15%9%57%19%
GQR Research (D) [36] [A] February 14–19, 2018400 (LV)± 4.9%13%6%72%2% [b] 6%
GQR Research (D) [37] [B] October 12–18, 2017446 (LV)± 4.6%10%3%75%2% [b] 10%

Results

Results by county:
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Lujan Grisham--70-80%
Lujan Grisham--60-70%
Lujan Grisham--50-60%
Lujan Grisham--40-50%
Apodaca--40-50% New Mexico gubernatorial Democratic primary, 2018.svg
Results by county:
  Lujan Grisham—70–80%
  Lujan Grisham—60–70%
  Lujan Grisham—50–60%
  Lujan Grisham—40–50%
  Apodaca—40–50%
Democratic primary results [8]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Michelle Lujan Grisham 116,754 66.38%
Democratic Jeff Apodaca 38,97522.16%
Democratic Joe Cervantes 20,16911.47%
Total votes175,898 100.00%

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared
Withdrew
Declined

Results

Results by county:
Morales--80-90%
Morales--70-80%
Morales--60-70%
Morales--50-60%
Morales--40-50%
Morales--<40%
Tie- Miera/Morales
Miera--40-50%
Garrett--40-50% New Mexico lieutenant gubernatorial Democratic primary, 2018.svg
Results by county:
  Morales—80–90%
  Morales—70–80%
  Morales—60–70%
  Morales—50–60%
  Morales—40–50%
  Morales—<40%
  Tie– Miera/Morales
  Miera—40–50%
  Garrett—40–50%
Democratic primary results [8]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Howie Morales 75,828 47.10%
Democratic Rick Miera 51,20231.81%
Democratic Billy Garrett33,94921.09%
Total votes160,979 100.00%

Libertarian primary

Based on the party's voter registration numbers and presidential nominee Gary Johnson's result in 2016, the Libertarian Party holds major-party status in New Mexico. [46] Under New Mexico law, both gubernatorial and lieutenant governor candidates must receive each at least 230 signatures from registered Libertarian voters to formally receive the nomination and be placed on the ballot as the Libertarian nominees. Both Walsh and Dunn failed to meet that requirement and were not on the ballot. [47]

Governor

Candidates

Declared
  • Bob Walsh, retired mathematician [48]
Declined

Results

Libertarian primary results [8]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Bob Walsh (write-in) 175 100.00%
Total votes175 100.00%

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared

Results

Libertarian primary results [8]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Robin Dunn (write-in) 177 100.00%
Total votes177 100.00%

General election

Endorsements

Steve Pearce (R)

Federal officials

Sheriffs [55]

County Commissioners

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Michelle Lujan Grisham (D)

Federal officials

U.S Senators

U.S. Representatives

Local and state politicians

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [92] Lean D (flip)October 26, 2018
The Washington Post [93] Lean D (flip)November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [94] Likely D (flip)November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report [95] Lean D (flip)November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [96] Lean D (flip)November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [97] Lean D (flip)November 4, 2018
Daily Kos [98] Lean D (flip)November 5, 2018
Fox News [99] [c] Lean D (flip)November 5, 2018
Politico [100] Likely D (flip)November 5, 2018
Governing [101] Lean D (flip)November 5, 2018

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Steve
Pearce (R)
Michelle Lujan
Grisham (D)
Undecided
Research Co. [102] November 1–3, 2018450 (V)± 4.6%41%53%6%
Research & Polling, Inc. [103] October 26 – November 1, 2018993 (LV)± 3.1%43%53%4%
Carroll Strategies [104] October 29, 20181,200 (LV)± 2.8%45%51%4%
Emerson College [105] October 24–26, 2018936 (LV)± 3.4%44%53%4%
GQR Research (D) [106] [A] October 22–26, 2018600 (LV)± 4.0%44%53%4%
Pacific Market Research [107] October 19–24, 2018400 (LV)± 4.9%39%48%13%
NSON Opinion Strategy (L) [108] [C] September 20–24, 2018932 (LV)40%44%16%
Research & Polling, Inc. [109] September 7–13, 2018966 (LV)± 3.1%43%50%
Global Strategy Group (D) [110] [D] August 27–30, 2018601 (LV)± 4.0%42%52%5%
GQR Research (D) [111] [A] August 18–22, 2018600 (LV)± 4.0%44%52%
Emerson College [112] August 17–18, 2018500 (RV)± 4.6%40%42%18%
The Tarrance Group (R) [113] [E] April 9–12, 2018608 (LV)± 4.1%45%47%8%
The Tarrance Group (R) [114] May 20–23, 2017605 (RV)± 4.1%43%47%10%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Steve
Pearce (R)
Michelle Lujan
Grisham (D)
Bob
Walsh (L)
Undecided
NSON Opinion Strategy (L) [115] July 2018500 (LV)37%44%7%11%
SurveyUSA [116] June 19–23, 2018535 (LV)± 5.0%38%51%3%8%
Carroll Strategies [117] June 15–16, 20181,199 (LV)± 2.8%42%51%3%4%

Results

2018 New Mexico gubernatorial election [118]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Michelle Lujan Grisham 398,368 57.20% +14.42%
Republican Steve Pearce 298,09142.80%−14.42%
Majority100,27714.40%
Total votes696,459 100.00%
Democratic gain from Republican Swing +28.84%

By county

County [118] Michelle Lujan Grisham
Democratic
Steve Pearce
Republican
MarginTotal votes cast
# %# %# %
Bernalillo 149,48062.10%91,22137.90%58,25924.20%240,701
Catron 51127.73%1,33272.27%-821-44.55%1,843
Chaves 5,34832.02%11,35267.98%-6,004-35.95%16,700
Cibola 3,98855.94%3,14144.06%84711.88%7,129
Colfax 2,32749.91%2,33550.09%-8-0.17%4,662
Curry 3,10630.41%7,10769.59%-4,001-39.18%10,213
De Baca 22928.06%58771.94%-358-43.87%816
Doña Ana 36,95460.64%23,98539.36%12,96921.28%60,939
Eddy 4,63129.29%11,17870.71%-6,547-41.41%15,809
Grant 7,04359.72%4,75040.28%2,29319.44%11,793
Guadalupe 1,02160.27%67339.73%34820.54%1,694
Harding 17837.24%30062.76%-122-25.52%478
Hidalgo 78548.25%84251.75%-57-3.50%1,627
Lea 3,08622.15%10,84577.85%-7,759-55.70%13,931
Lincoln 2,62533.48%5,21666.52%-2,591-33.04%7,841
Los Alamos 6,00558.61%4,24041.39%1,76517.23%10,245
Luna 2,96748.30%3,17651.70%-209-3.40%6,143
McKinley 13,11771.46%5,23828.54%7,87942.93%18,355
Mora 1,66471.05%67828.95%98642.10%2,342
Otero 6,45037.73%10,64462.27%-4,194-24.53%17,094
Quay 1,14437.03%1,94562.97%-801-25.93%3,089
Rio Arriba 9,35273.00%3,45927.00%5,89346.00%12,811
Roosevelt 1,43030.74%3,22269.26%-1,792-38.52%4,652
San Juan 13,34735.78%23,96164.22%-10,614-28.45%37,308
San Miguel 7,00175.78%2,23824.22%4,76351.55%9,239
Sandoval 30,42555.09%24,80344.91%5,62210.18%55,228
Santa Fe 52,69278.54%14,39421.46%38,29857.09%67,086
Sierra 1,88039.81%2,84360.19%-963-20.39%4,723
Socorro 3,59657.44%2,66442.56%93214.89%6,260
Taos 11,80681.46%2,68718.54%9,11962.92%14,493
Torrance 2,04838.17%3,31761.83%-1,269-23.65%5,365
Union 41528.15%1,05971.85%-644-43.69%1,474
Valencia 11,71748.07%12,65951.93%-942-3.86%24,376
Total398,36857.20%298,09142.80%100,27714.40%696,459

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Grisham won 2 of 3 congressional districts, with Pearce winning the remaining one, which elected a Democrat. [119]

DistrictPearceLujan GrishamRepresentative
1st 39%61% Michelle Lujan Grisham
Deb Haaland
2nd 53%47% Steve Pearce
Xochitl Torres Small
3rd 39%61% Ben Ray Luján

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. 1 2 Peter DeBenedittis with 2%
  3. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 Poll conducted for Lujan Grisham's campaign.
  2. Poll conducted for The Majority Institute, a research and strategy hub affiliated with the Democratic Party.
  3. Poll conducted for the Elect Liberty PAC, an organization dedicated to promoting Libertarian candidates.
  4. Poll conducted for Hector Balderas, the incumbent New Mexico Attorney General.
  5. Poll conducted for Pearce's campaign.

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  66. Barack Obama. "Today, I'm proud to endorse even more Democratic candidates who aren't just running against something, but for something—to expand opportunity for all of us and to restore dignity, honor, and compassion to public service. They deserve your vote". Twitter.
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  69. Elizabeth Warren. "Michelle Lujan Grisham's opponent for New Mexico governor spread Obama birther conspiracy theories & wrote that a wife should "voluntarily submit" to her husband. Time to draw a line in the sand. Pitch in & let's help @Michelle4NM win this seat". Twitter.
  70. Gwen Graham. "Congratulations to my friend @Michelle4NM! Serving together, I saw how hard Michelle fought for New Mexico and know she will make a great governor. #TheFutureIsFemale #2018IsFemale". Twitter.
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  76. Chelsea Handler. "Governor: We're thrilled Michelle Lujan Grisham won her primary in New Mexico — she's now one step closer to being the nation's first-ever Democratic Latina governor! We've had so many firsts w/ women of cooor and the lgbtq community. Let's keep it going. @emilyslist". Twitter.
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Official Governor campaign websites

Official Lt. Governor campaign websites