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Lujan Grisham: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Pearce: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% No data | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in New Mexico |
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The 2018 New Mexico gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of New Mexico, concurrently with the election of New Mexico's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various local elections. This was one of eight Republican-held governorships up for election in a state carried by Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.
Incumbent Republican governor Susana Martinez was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term. Following party primaries on June 5, 2018, U.S. Representative Steve Pearce was the Republican nominee and U.S. Representative Michelle Lujan Grisham was the Democratic nominee. Lujan Grisham won the election by a substantial margin, which in fact was a complete and exact reversal of the 2014 gubernatorial results. Her win also signaled a continuation of the pattern of the partisanship of the office changing every two terms, beginning with Gary Johnson's first election in 1994. Furthermore, the pattern of the partisanship changing with each officeholder was continued, a pattern first started after Toney Anaya left office in 1987. Furthermore, the margin between the candidates (57.2% to 42.8%) was the same as the previous election, albeit with the parties switched.
At the presidential level, New Mexico has begun to trend into a Democratic-leaning swing state. It has gone Democratic in all but one presidential election since 1992. The only break in this trend came in 2004, when George W. Bush won it by less than a point. However, in 2008, Barack Obama won the state over John McCain by 15 points and in 2012 by 10 points over Mitt Romney. In 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton defeated Republican Donald Trump by eight points.
However, in 2010, then-District Attorney of New Mexico's Third Judicial District Susana Martinez won the election, becoming the first US Latina Governor, over Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish, former running mate of two-term Democrat Bill Richardson, by approximately seven points. In 2014, Martinez was re-elected over state Attorney General Gary King by nearly 15 points. It has been described as one of the Democrats' best chances at a pickup, due to Gov. Martinez's unpopularity and because "she's leaving behind a high unemployment rate and struggling education system." [1]
The 2018 primary election results show 116,311 votes for Democratic candidate Michelle Lujan Grisham and a total of 175,182 for all three Democratic candidates while Republican candidate/nominee Steve Pearce received 74,705; note that 23% of New Mexico's registered voters are third party or independents (280,000), who do not vote in the primary election.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Steve Pearce | 75,162 | 100.00% | |
Total votes | 75,162 | 100.00% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Michelle Garcia Holmes | 67,681 | 100.00% | |
Total votes | 67,681 | 100.00% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Jeff Apodaca | Joe Cervantes | Michelle Lujan Grisham | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Research & Polling, Inc. | May 20–24, 2018 | 444 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 15% | 9% | 57% | – | 19% |
GQR Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] | February 14–19, 2018 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 13% | 6% | 72% | 2% [lower-alpha 2] | 6% |
GQR Research (D) [upper-alpha 2] | October 12–18, 2017 | 446 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 10% | 3% | 75% | 2% [lower-alpha 2] | 10% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Michelle Lujan Grisham | 116,754 | 66.38% | |
Democratic | Jeff Apodaca | 38,975 | 22.16% | |
Democratic | Joe Cervantes | 20,169 | 11.47% | |
Total votes | 175,898 | 100.00% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Howie Morales | 75,828 | 47.10% | |
Democratic | Rick Miera | 51,202 | 31.81% | |
Democratic | Billy Garrett | 33,949 | 21.09% | |
Total votes | 160,979 | 100.00% |
Based on the party's voter registration numbers and presidential nominee Gary Johnson's result in 2016, the Libertarian Party holds major-party status in New Mexico. [43] Under New Mexico law, both gubernatorial and lieutenant governor candidates must receive each at least 230 signatures from registered Libertarian voters to formally receive the nomination and be placed on the ballot as the Libertarian nominees. Both Walsh and Dunn failed to meet that requirement and were not on the ballot. [44]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | Bob Walsh (write-in) | 175 | 100.00% | |
Total votes | 175 | 100.00% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | Robin Dunn (write-in) | 177 | 100.00% | |
Total votes | 177 | 100.00% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [89] | Lean D (flip) | October 26, 2018 |
The Washington Post [90] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight [91] | Likely D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
Rothenberg Political Report [92] | Lean D (flip) | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [93] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics [94] | Lean D (flip) | November 4, 2018 |
Daily Kos [95] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
Fox News [96] [lower-alpha 3] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
Politico [97] | Likely D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
Governing [98] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Steve Pearce (R) | Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Research Co. | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 (V) | ± 4.6% | 41% | 53% | 6% |
Research & Polling, Inc. | October 26 – November 1, 2018 | 993 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 53% | 4% |
Carroll Strategies | October 29, 2018 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 51% | 4% |
Emerson College | October 24–26, 2018 | 936 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 53% | 4% |
GQR Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] | October 22–26, 2018 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 53% | 4% |
Pacific Market Research | October 19–24, 2018 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 39% | 48% | 13% |
NSON Opinion Strategy (L) [upper-alpha 3] | September 20–24, 2018 | 932 (LV) | – | 40% | 44% | 16% |
Research & Polling, Inc. | September 7–13, 2018 | 966 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 50% | – |
Global Strategy Group (D) [upper-alpha 4] | August 27–30, 2018 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 52% | 5% |
GQR Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] | August 18–22, 2018 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 52% | – |
Emerson College | August 17–18, 2018 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 40% | 42% | 18% |
The Tarrance Group (R) [upper-alpha 5] | April 9–12, 2018 | 608 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
The Tarrance Group (R) | May 20–23, 2017 | 605 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Steve Pearce (R) | Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) | Bob Walsh (L) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NSON Opinion Strategy (L) | July 2018 | 500 (LV) | – | 37% | 44% | 7% | 11% |
SurveyUSA | June 19–23, 2018 | 535 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 38% | 51% | 3% | 8% |
Carroll Strategies | June 15–16, 2018 | 1,199 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 42% | 51% | 3% | 4% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Michelle Lujan Grisham | 398,368 | 57.20% | +14.42% | |
Republican | Steve Pearce | 298,091 | 42.80% | −14.42% | |
Majority | 100,277 | 14.40% | |||
Total votes | 696,459 | 100.00% | |||
Democratic gain from Republican | Swing | +28.84% |
County [99] | Michelle Lujan Grisham Democratic | Steve Pearce Republican | Margin | Total votes cast | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
# | % | # | % | # | % | ||
Bernalillo | 149,480 | 62.10% | 91,221 | 37.90% | 58,259 | 24.20% | 240,701 |
Catron | 511 | 27.73% | 1,332 | 72.27% | -821 | -44.55% | 1,843 |
Chaves | 5,348 | 32.02% | 11,352 | 67.98% | -6,004 | -35.95% | 16,700 |
Cibola | 3,988 | 55.94% | 3,141 | 44.06% | 847 | 11.88% | 7,129 |
Colfax | 2,327 | 49.91% | 2,335 | 50.09% | -8 | -0.17% | 4,662 |
Curry | 3,106 | 30.41% | 7,107 | 69.59% | -4,001 | -39.18% | 10,213 |
De Baca | 229 | 28.06% | 587 | 71.94% | -358 | -43.87% | 816 |
Doña Ana | 36,954 | 60.64% | 23,985 | 39.36% | 12,969 | 21.28% | 60,939 |
Eddy | 4,631 | 29.29% | 11,178 | 70.71% | -6,547 | -41.41% | 15,809 |
Grant | 7,043 | 59.72% | 4,750 | 40.28% | 2,293 | 19.44% | 11,793 |
Guadalupe | 1,021 | 60.27% | 673 | 39.73% | 348 | 20.54% | 1,694 |
Harding | 178 | 37.24% | 300 | 62.76% | -122 | -25.52% | 478 |
Hidalgo | 785 | 48.25% | 842 | 51.75% | -57 | -3.50% | 1,627 |
Lea | 3,086 | 22.15% | 10,845 | 77.85% | -7,759 | -55.70% | 13,931 |
Lincoln | 2,625 | 33.48% | 5,216 | 66.52% | -2,591 | -33.04% | 7,841 |
Los Alamos | 6,005 | 58.61% | 4,240 | 41.39% | 1,765 | 17.23% | 10,245 |
Luna | 2,967 | 48.30% | 3,176 | 51.70% | -209 | -3.40% | 6,143 |
McKinley | 13,117 | 71.46% | 5,238 | 28.54% | 7,879 | 42.93% | 18,355 |
Mora | 1,664 | 71.05% | 678 | 28.95% | 986 | 42.10% | 2,342 |
Otero | 6,450 | 37.73% | 10,644 | 62.27% | -4,194 | -24.53% | 17,094 |
Quay | 1,144 | 37.03% | 1,945 | 62.97% | -801 | -25.93% | 3,089 |
Rio Arriba | 9,352 | 73.00% | 3,459 | 27.00% | 5,893 | 46.00% | 12,811 |
Roosevelt | 1,430 | 30.74% | 3,222 | 69.26% | -1,792 | -38.52% | 4,652 |
San Juan | 13,347 | 35.78% | 23,961 | 64.22% | -10,614 | -28.45% | 37,308 |
San Miguel | 7,001 | 75.78% | 2,238 | 24.22% | 4,763 | 51.55% | 9,239 |
Sandoval | 30,425 | 55.09% | 24,803 | 44.91% | 5,622 | 10.18% | 55,228 |
Santa Fe | 52,692 | 78.54% | 14,394 | 21.46% | 38,298 | 57.09% | 67,086 |
Sierra | 1,880 | 39.81% | 2,843 | 60.19% | -963 | -20.39% | 4,723 |
Socorro | 3,596 | 57.44% | 2,664 | 42.56% | 932 | 14.89% | 6,260 |
Taos | 11,806 | 81.46% | 2,687 | 18.54% | 9,119 | 62.92% | 14,493 |
Torrance | 2,048 | 38.17% | 3,317 | 61.83% | -1,269 | -23.65% | 5,365 |
Union | 415 | 28.15% | 1,059 | 71.85% | -644 | -43.69% | 1,474 |
Valencia | 11,717 | 48.07% | 12,659 | 51.93% | -942 | -3.86% | 24,376 |
Total | 398,368 | 57.20% | 298,091 | 42.80% | 100,277 | 14.40% | 696,459 |
Grisham won 2 of 3 congressional districts, with Pearce winning the remaining one, which elected a Democrat. [100]
District | Pearce | Lujan Grisham | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 39% | 61% | Michelle Lujan Grisham |
Deb Haaland | |||
2nd | 53% | 47% | Steve Pearce |
Xochitl Torres Small | |||
3rd | 39% | 61% | Ben Ray Luján |
Stevan Edward Pearce is an American businessman and politician who served as the U.S. representative for New Mexico's 2nd congressional district from 2003 to 2009 and from 2011 to 2019. He is a member of the Republican Party and was his party's unsuccessful nominee in the 2018 New Mexico gubernatorial election. On December 8, 2018, Pearce was elected Chair of the New Mexico Republican Party, replacing Ryan Cangiolosi. He was re-elected in December 2020.
The Democratic Party of New Mexico (DPNM) is the affiliate of the Democratic Party in the U.S. state of New Mexico. It is headquartered in Albuquerque and led by Chair Jessica Velasquez, Vice Chair Manny Crespin, Secretary Isaac Dakota Casados, and Treasurer Rayellen Smith.
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The 2018 United States Senate election in New Mexico took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New Mexico, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
The 2020 United States Senate election in New Mexico was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Mexico, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.
The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the three U.S. representatives from the state of New Mexico, one from each of the state's three congressional districts. The elections coincided with the gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.
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Melanie Ann Stansbury is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative from New Mexico's 1st congressional district since 2021. The district includes most of Albuquerque and most of its suburbs. A Democrat, Stansbury was formerly a member of the New Mexico House of Representatives from the 28th district.
The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico were held on November 8, 2022, to elect the three U.S. representatives from the state of New Mexico, one from each of the state's three congressional districts. The elections coincided with the New Mexico gubernatorial election and various state and local elections. The Democratic party gained the 2nd Congressional seat, gaining unitary control of New Mexico's Congressional delegation for the first time since 2018 and improving the advantage in the House delegation for New Mexico from 2–1 in favor of Democrats to 3–0.
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A special election was held on June 1, 2021, to fill the vacancy in New Mexico's 1st congressional district created by Representative Deb Haaland's resignation from the United States House of Representatives to become the Secretary of the Interior in Joe Biden's administration.