2018 United States Senate election in Massachusetts

Last updated

2018 United States Senate election in Massachusetts
Flag of Massachusetts.svg
←  2012 November 6, 2018 (2018-11-06) 2024  →
Turnout59.17%
  Elizabeth Warren--2016 Official Portrait--(cropped).jpg Geoff Diehl crop.jpg
Nominee Elizabeth Warren Geoff Diehl
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote1,633,371979,210
Percentage60.34%36.17%
2018 MA US Senate.svg
2018 United States Senate Election in Massachusetts by Town.svg
MA-2018-sen-districts.svg
MA Senate 2018 Precinct Results.svg
Warren:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Diehl:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Tie:      40–50%
U.S. senator before election

Elizabeth Warren
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Elizabeth Warren
Democratic

The 2018 United States Senate election in Massachusetts took place on November 6, 2018. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren ran for re-election to a second term. The candidate filing deadline was June 5, 2018, and the primary election was held on September 4, 2018. [1]

Contents

Warren won re-election, defeating her Republican opponent, Geoff Diehl. [2]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Results

United States Senate Democratic primary in Massachusetts results by county, 2018: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Warren-->=90% 2018 MA US Senate Dem primary.svg
United States Senate Democratic primary in Massachusetts results by county, 2018:
  Warren—≥90%
Democratic primary results [5]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Elizabeth Warren (incumbent) 590,835 98.08%
Write-in 11,5581.92%
Total votes602,393 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Eliminated at convention

  • Darius Mitchell [9]
  • Heidi Wellman [10]

Declined

Endorsements

Beth Lindstrom
Governors
State legislators
Local officials
Organizations
Newspapers
John Kingston
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Geoff
Diehl		John
Kingston		Beth
Lindstrom		OtherUndecided
MassINC June 22–25, 2018399± 4.9%26%12%15%5%41%

Results

Overall

Massachusetts United States Senate Republican primary results by municipality, 2018 Massachusetts United States Senate Republican primary results by municipality, 2018.svg
Massachusetts United States Senate Republican primary results by municipality, 2018
Republican primary results [5]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Geoff Diehl 144,043 55.15%
Republican John Kingston 69,63626.66%
Republican Beth Lindstrom46,69317.88%
Write-in 7980.31%
Total votes261,170 100.00%

By county

Massachusetts United States Senate Republican primary results by county, 2018: Diehl--70-80% Diehl--60-70% Diehl--50-60% Diehl--40-50% Kingston--40-50% 2018 MA US Senate GOP primary.svg
Massachusetts United States Senate Republican primary results by county, 2018:
  Diehl—70–80%
  Diehl—60–70%
  Diehl—50–60%
  Diehl—40–50%
  Kingston—40–50%

Results by county. Red represents counties won by Diehl. Teal represents counties won by Kingston.

CountyDiehl
%		Diehl
votes		Kingston
%		Kingston
votes		Lindstrom
%		Lindstrom
votes
Barnstable 57.0%10,76124.2%4,57318.6%3,513
Berkshire 47.9%1,22137.8%96513.8%352
Bristol 61.8%11,00523.0%4,09515.0%2,669
Dukes 55.2%34725.9%16318.9%119
Essex 53.1%17,71628.3%9,42818.3%6,104
Franklin 41.8%93842.3%94915.3%343
Hampden 50.5%7,49134.0%5,04815.0%2,225
Hampshire 45.7%1,96736.7%1,57916.9%725
Middlesex 52.5%29,08426.8%14,85220.3%11,218
Nantucket 50.1%16829.6%9920.3%68
Norfolk 58.9%18,74922.0%7,00918.8%5,992
Plymouth 70.1%23,24219.8%6,54910.0%3,316
Suffolk 53.5%4,79227.6%2,47118.2%1,628
Worcester 44.8%16,56232.1%11,85622.8%8,421
Total55.2%144,04326.7%69,63617.9%46,693

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declined

Independents

Candidates

Declared

Declined

General election

Endorsements

Elizabeth Warren (D)
State officials
Newspapers
Organizations
Geoff Diehl (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
Governors
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Shiva Ayyadurai (I)
Individuals
Newspapers

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [118] Safe DSeptember 28, 2018
Inside Elections [119] Safe DSeptember 29, 2017
Sabato's Crystal Ball [120] Safe DSeptember 27, 2017
Fox News [121] Likely DJuly 9, 2018
CNN [122] Safe DJuly 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics [123] Safe DMay 26, 2018

^Highest rating they assert

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Elizabeth
Warren (D)		Geoff
Diehl (R)		Shiva
Ayyadurai (I)		OtherUndecided
MassINC October 25–28, 2018502± 4.4%54%32%6%3%3%
Suffolk University October 24–28, 2018500± 4.4%56%34%4%–5%
Western New England University October 10–27, 2018402 LV± 5.0%57%27%7%–8%
485 RV± 4.0%54%27%6%–12%
UMass Lowell October 1–7, 2018485 LV± 5.6%56%31%8%3%2%
791 RV± 4.4%56%28%9%4%1%
MassINC September 17–21, 2018506± 4.4%56%30%5%1%6%
Suffolk University Archived September 20, 2018, at the Wayback Machine September 13–17, 2018500± 4.4%54%24%6%–16%
Suffolk University Archived June 15, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 8–12, 2018500± 4.4%55%33%––11%
MassINC May 22–26, 2018501± 4.4%54%19%8%1%15%
MassINC March 16–18, 2018504± 4.4%55%20%9%1%13%
MassINC November 9–12, 2017503± 4.4%58%32%–3%7%
MassINC June 19–22, 2017504± 4.4%60%29%–1%8%
Hypothetical polling
with Beth Lindstrom
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Elizabeth
Warren (D)		Beth
Lindstrom (R)		Shiva
Ayyadurai (I)		OtherUndecided
Suffolk University Archived June 15, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 8–12, 2018500± 4.4%56%31%––13%
MassINC May 22–26, 2018501± 4.4%55%19%7%2%15%
MassINC March 16–18, 2018504± 4.4%53%19%9%1%14%
MassINC November 9–12, 2017504± 4.4%56%33%–3%8%
with John Kingston
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Elizabeth
Warren (D)		John
Kingston (R)		Shiva
Ayyadurai (I)		OtherUndecided
Suffolk University Archived June 15, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 8–12, 2018500± 4.4%54%30%––15%
MassINC May 22–26, 2018501± 4.4%56%19%8%1%14%
MassINC March 16–18, 2018504± 4.4%53%19%7%2%12%
MassINC November 9–12, 2017504± 4.4%57%33%–2%7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Elizabeth
Warren (D)		Karyn
Polito (R)		Mitt
Romney (R)		Richard
Tisei (R)		OtherUndecided
UMass Amherst September 15–20, 2016~450± 4.1%40%36%––5%19%
44%–31%–10%15%
39%––32%3%26%
with Shiva Ayyadurai running as Republican
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Elizabeth
Warren (D)		Shiva
Ayyadurai (R)		OtherUndecided
MassINC November 9–12, 2017504± 4.4%58%27%4%10%
MassINC June 19–22, 2017504± 4.4%61%25%2%9%
with Curt Schilling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Elizabeth
Warren (D)		Curt
Schilling (R)		OtherUndecided
Suffolk University Archived October 28, 2016, at the Wayback Machine October 24–26, 2016500± 4.4%58%24%2%16%
UMass Amherst September 15–20, 2016~450± 4.1%47%28%9%16%
MassINC September 7–10, 2016506± 4.4%54%29%3%15%
with William Weld
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Elizabeth
Warren (D)		William
Weld (L)		OtherUndecided
UMass Amherst September 15–20, 2016~450± 4.1%40%37%8%16%

Results

United States Senate election in Massachusetts, 2018 [124]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Elizabeth Warren (incumbent) 1,633,371 60.34% +6.60%
Republican Geoff Diehl 979,21036.17%-10.02%
Independent Shiva Ayyadurai 91,7103.39%N/A
Write-in 2,7990.10%N/A
Total votes2,707,090 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Warren won all of the state’s congressional districts. [125]

DistrictDiehlWarrenRepresentative
1st 37.34%58.95% Richard Neal
2nd 39.07%57.01% Jim McGovern
3rd 38.56%57.51% Niki Tsongas (115th Congress)
Lori Trahan (116th Congress)
4th 38.45%58.19% Joe Kennedy III
5th 27.82%68.91% Katherine Clark
6th 41.21%54.98% Seth Moulton
7th 13.15%84.51% Michael Capuano (115th Congress)
Ayanna Pressley (116th Congress)
8th 39.45%57.65% Stephen Lynch
9th 45.67%51.13% Bill Keating

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References

  1. ↑ "United States Senate election in Massachusetts, 2018 – Ballotpedia" . Retrieved March 3, 2017.
  2. ↑ Gavin, Christopher (November 6, 2018). "Here's an updating list of the 2018 Massachusetts election winners". Boston.com . Retrieved November 6, 2018.
  3. ↑ Hagan, Lisa (January 6, 2017). "Warren says she will run for reelection". The Hill . Retrieved January 7, 2017.
  4. ↑ McGrane, Victoria (January 6, 2017). "Warren announces she's running for re-election". The Boston Globe . Retrieved January 11, 2017.
  5. 1 2 "PD43+ » Search Elections".
  6. ↑ O'Sullivan, Jim (August 2, 2017). "Trump backer Geoff Diehl launches bid to unseat Elizabeth Warren". The Boston Globe . Retrieved August 2, 2017.
  7. ↑ "Kingston formally launches US Senate bid for Republican nomination – The Boston Globe". The Boston Globe .
  8. ↑ O'Sullivan, Jim (August 21, 2017). "GOP's Beth Lindstrom to launch challenge to Elizabeth Warren in 2018". The Boston Globe . Retrieved August 21, 2017.
  9. ↑ "MITCHELL, DARIUS – Candidate overview – FEC.gov". FEC.gov.
  10. ↑ "WELLMAN, HEIDI M – Candidate overview – FEC.gov". FEC.gov.
  11. ↑ Murphy, Matt (April 12, 2017). "Weighing another run, Gomez sees Warren as beatable". WWLP. Retrieved April 14, 2017.
  12. ↑ Phillips, Frank (January 10, 2017). "GOP businessman may challenge Elizabeth Warren for re-election". The Boston Globe . Archived from the original on January 12, 2017. Retrieved January 12, 2017.
  13. ↑ Phillips, Frank (March 13, 2017). "Businessman Rick Green decides against US Senate bid". The Boston Globe . Retrieved March 15, 2017.
  14. ↑ Firozi, Paulina (August 16, 2016). "Curt Schilling considers challenging Elizabeth Warren". The Hill . Retrieved August 16, 2016.
  15. ↑ "Libertarian Bill Weld will head up a fund-raising event . . . for the GOP – The Boston Globe". The Boston Globe .
  16. 1 2 Cassidy, Chris (January 7, 2017). "Liz Warren running into wrath of Donald Trump". Boston Herald . Retrieved January 11, 2017.
  17. ↑ "Libertarian Bill Weld will head up a fund-raising event . . . for the GOP – The Boston Globe". The Boston Globe . Retrieved August 29, 2018.
  18. ↑ "Rep. Jay Barrows endorses Beth Lindstrom for U.S. Senate". Beth Lindstrom For US Senate. June 28, 2018.
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  31. ↑ Beth Lindstrom. "THonored to receive the endorsement of #Peabody City Councilor-at-Large Anne Manning-Martin! #masen #mapoli #bospoli". Twitter.
  32. ↑ "Maggie's List Proudly Endorses Beth Lindstrom for U.S Senate". Maggie's List. March 14, 2018. Retrieved March 21, 2018.
  33. ↑ Beth Lindstrom. "Today, I was formally endorsed by the New England Police Benevolent Association. The NEPBA represents close to 4,000 Law Enforcement Professionals in Massachusetts. #masen #mapoli". Twitter.
  34. ↑ "RightNOW Women PAC Endorses Beth Lindstrom". Beth Lindstrom For US Senate. January 3, 2018.
  35. ↑ "Beth Lindstrom". VIEW PAC. Archived from the original on July 24, 2018. Retrieved July 24, 2018.
  36. ↑ "Endorsement: Beth Lindstrom is clear GOP choice for Senate". The Boston Globe . August 23, 2018.
  37. ↑ "EDITORIAL: Lindstrom is best hope for GOP in senate race". The Lowell Sun . August 29, 2018.
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  44. ↑ Buell, Spencer (November 11, 2017). "Shiva Ayyadurai Is Running for Senate as an Independent". Boston Magazine. Retrieved November 13, 2017.
  45. ↑ Breland, Ali. "Wellness influencers are spreading QAnon conspiracies about the coronavirus". Mother Jones. Retrieved January 26, 2021.
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  47. ↑ "WATERS, ALLEN – Candidate overview – FEC.gov". FEC.gov.
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  51. ↑ "2018 Council-endorsed Senate Candidates – Council for a Livable World". Council for a Livable World.
  52. ↑ Hagen, Lisa (January 20, 2017). "Major progressive group unveils first 2018 Senate endorsements". The Hill . Retrieved January 29, 2017.
  53. ↑ "EMILY's List Endorses Nine Democratic Women Senators for Re-Election in 2018". EMILY's List . February 10, 2017. Retrieved February 13, 2017.
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  57. ↑ "LCV Action Fund Endorses Senator Elizabeth Warren". League of Conservation Voters. April 23, 2018.
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  61. ↑ "Population Connection Action Fund Endorsements". Population Connection. Archived from the original on April 5, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018.
  62. ↑ "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". March 19, 2021.
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  65. ↑ Stout, Matt (March 28, 2018). "Sean Spicer is coming to town — to raise money for a Warren opponent". Boston Globe .
  66. ↑ Dumcius, Gintautas (September 8, 2018). "Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker says he backs GOP's November ticket, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren's opponent". masslive.com.
  67. ↑ Young, Shannon (May 10, 2018). "Maine Gov. Paul LePage to campaign for US Senate candidate Geoff Diehl". masslive.com.
  68. ↑ "Geoff Diehl on Twitter".
  69. ↑ "Clark Endorses Diehl". Diehl for Senate. August 23, 2018. Archived from the original on October 6, 2018. Retrieved August 27, 2018.
  70. ↑ "Cole endorses Diehl". Diehl for Senate. August 24, 2018. Archived from the original on October 6, 2018. Retrieved August 27, 2018.
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  78. ↑ Geoff Diehl. "Stoneham Selectwoman Caroline Colarusso endorses Geoff Diehl for U.S. Senate!". Facebook.
  79. 1 2 "POLITICAL NOTEBOOK: Housing issue gets spotlight at Dem forum". The Framingham Tab. August 26, 2018.
  80. ↑ "Diehl Endorsed by Sheriff Cummings". CapeCod.com. July 25, 2018.
  81. ↑ "EVANGELIDIS ENDORSES DIEHL". Diehl for Senate. September 27, 2018. Archived from the original on October 17, 2018. Retrieved October 29, 2018.
  82. ↑ Geoff Diehl. "Thrilled to have the endorsement of Weymouth @MayorBobHedlund! Remember to vote Geoff Diehl for U.S. Senate on Tuesday, September 4. #TheRealDiehl #mapoli #masen #masen2018 #magop". Twitter.
  83. ↑ "Geoff Diehl on Twitter". Twitter.
  84. ↑ "Everett's Marchese Backs Diehl for U.S. Senate". Diehl for Senate. October 27, 2018.[ permanent dead link ]
  85. 1 2 "Diehl Wins Taunton Endorsements". Diehl for Senate. August 23, 2018. Archived from the original on October 6, 2018. Retrieved August 27, 2018.
  86. ↑ "SHERIFF MCDONALD ENDORSES DIEHL: Law Enforcement Overwhelmingly Backs Geoff Diehl". Diehl for Senate. October 17, 2018. Archived from the original on October 18, 2018. Retrieved October 29, 2018.
  87. ↑ Geoff Diehl. "Melrose Alderman Monica Medeiros endorses Geoff Diehl for U.S. Senate!". Facebook.
  88. ↑ Geoff Diehl. "Thank you to #Hanson Board of Selectman Chair Ken Mitchell for your endorsement. Together we will put our communities and all of #MassachusettsFirst! #mapoli #masen #masen2018 #magop". Twitter.
  89. ↑ Battenfeld, Joe (August 15, 2018). "Herman Cain reappears in support of Diehl's 'long shot' bid [+audio]". Boston Herald.
  90. ↑ Howie Carr. "Good morning everyone! Big day today. Don't forget to vote for Geoff Diehl. @DiehlForSenate". Twitter.
  91. ↑ "New Bedford's Constantine Endorses Diehl". Diehl for Senate. September 18, 2018. Archived from the original on October 18, 2018. Retrieved October 29, 2018.
  92. ↑ "Larry Ellison Endorses Geoff Diehl". Diehl for Senate. October 29, 2018.[ permanent dead link ]
  93. 1 2 "DIEHL WINS BIG ENDORSEMENT". Diehl for Senate. April 11, 2018. Archived from the original on April 26, 2018. Retrieved April 26, 2018.
  94. ↑ "DIEHL WINS BIG ENDORSEMENT: Malone Endorses Diehl". Diehl for Senate. August 31, 2018. Archived from the original on October 6, 2018. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  95. ↑ "Captain Dave Endorses Diehl for Senate". Diehl for Senate. August 28, 2018. Archived from the original on October 6, 2018. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  96. ↑ "McNamara Endorses Diehl". Diehl for Senate. July 11, 2018. Archived from the original on October 6, 2018. Retrieved August 27, 2018.
  97. ↑ "STEPHEN MOORE TO HEADLINE EVENT FOR DIEHL". Diehl for Senate. July 26, 2018. Archived from the original on October 6, 2018. Retrieved August 27, 2018.
  98. ↑ "Geoff Diehl on Twitter".
  99. ↑ "Diehl Gets New Endorsement". CapeCod.com. October 11, 2018.
  100. 1 2 "New Bedford and Marshfield Police Back Diehl". CapeCod.com. October 25, 2018.[ permanent dead link ]
  101. ↑ "Boston patrolmen's union gives Geoff Diehl backup | Boston Herald". Archived from the original on October 10, 2018. Retrieved October 23, 2018.
  102. ↑ "Latest News - Geoff Diehl for U.S. Senate". Archived from the original on October 23, 2018. Retrieved October 23, 2018.
  103. 1 2 "Everett Police Patrolman's Association Endorse Diehl for U.S. Senate". GoLocalWorcester. August 27, 2018.
  104. ↑ "Diehl Wins Federal Law Enforcement Nod". Diehl for Senate. October 6, 2018. Archived from the original on October 17, 2018. Retrieved October 29, 2018.
  105. ↑ LaFratta, Kristin (October 25, 2018). "Massachusetts Police Association endorses Geoff Diehl for U.S. Senate". masslive.com.
  106. ↑ "GOP Endorses Baker for Gov., Diehl for U.S. Senate; Pro-Trump Lively Makes the Ballot | WGBH News". Archived from the original on April 30, 2018. Retrieved April 30, 2018.
  107. ↑ "Law Enforcement Backing Diehl". Diehl for Senate. October 2, 2018. Archived from the original on October 17, 2018. Retrieved October 29, 2018.
  108. ↑ "Massachusetts: Vote for NRA-PVF Endorsed Candidates in Tomorrow's 2018 General Election!". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. November 5, 2018. Archived from the original on July 24, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  109. ↑ Geoff Diehl. "BREAKING: I am proud to have earned the endorsement of the @NRA – National Rifle Association of America ahead of our Tuesday Primary. I'll always stand with law-abiding gun owners to protect our #2A #mapoli #masen #masen2018 #magop". Twitter.
  110. ↑ "Worcester police union backs Republican Geoff Diehl for U.S. Senate". Worcester Magazine . September 26, 2018.
  111. ↑ "DIEHL WINS BIG ENDORSEMENT". Diehl for Senate. August 27, 2018. Archived from the original on October 6, 2018. Retrieved August 28, 2018.
  112. ↑ "Editorial endorsement: Geoff Diehl a strong challenge for Liz Warren". Boston Herald . August 20, 2018.
  113. ↑ "Editorial: Geoff Diehl for U.S. Senate". Boston Herald . October 23, 2018. Retrieved October 23, 2018.
  114. ↑ "Fake Indian, Meet Real Indian". December 3, 2017.
  115. ↑ "Schilling Endorses 'My Choice' for Senate, and it Isn't Him". RollCall. March 6, 2017. Archived from the original on October 23, 2018. Retrieved October 23, 2018.
  116. ↑ "Dr Shiva Ayyadurai on the Hypocrisy of the Establishment Elites". YouTube . December 30, 2017. Retrieved December 30, 2017.
  117. ↑ "New GOP option for Warren's seat breaks old mold". The Lowell Sun . April 7, 2017. Retrieved October 23, 2018.
  118. ↑ "2018 Senate Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  119. ↑ "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  120. ↑ "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  121. ↑ "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Fox News . Retrieved July 10, 2018.
  122. ↑ "Key Races: Senate" . Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  123. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2018" . Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  124. ↑ "Archived copy" (PDF). www.sec.state.ma.us. Archived from the original (PDF) on November 29, 2018. Retrieved January 11, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  125. ↑ "Daily Kos".
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