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Turnout | 59.17% | ||||||||||||||||
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Warren: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Diehl: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Massachusetts |
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The 2018 United States Senate election in Massachusetts took place on November 6, 2018. Incumbent Democratic U.S. senator Elizabeth Warren ran for re-election to a second term. The candidate filing deadline was June 5, 2018, and the primary election was held on September 4, 2018. [1]
Warren won re-election, defeating her Republican opponent, state Representative Geoff Diehl. [2]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Elizabeth Warren (incumbent) | 590,835 | 98.08% | |
Write-in | 11,558 | 1.92% | ||
Total votes | 602,393 | 100.00% |
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Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Geoff Diehl | John Kingston | Beth Lindstrom | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MassINC [43] | June 22–25, 2018 | 399 | ± 4.9% | 26% | 12% | 15% | 5% | 41% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Geoff Diehl | 144,043 | 55.15% | |
Republican | John Kingston | 69,636 | 26.66% | |
Republican | Beth Lindstrom | 46,693 | 17.88% | |
Write-in | 798 | 0.31% | ||
Total votes | 261,170 | 100.00% |
Results by county. Red represents counties won by Diehl. Teal represents counties won by Kingston.
County | Diehl % | Diehl votes | Kingston % | Kingston votes | Lindstrom % | Lindstrom votes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Barnstable | 57.0% | 10,761 | 24.2% | 4,573 | 18.6% | 3,513 |
Berkshire | 47.9% | 1,221 | 37.8% | 965 | 13.8% | 352 |
Bristol | 61.8% | 11,005 | 23.0% | 4,095 | 15.0% | 2,669 |
Dukes | 55.2% | 347 | 25.9% | 163 | 18.9% | 119 |
Essex | 53.1% | 17,716 | 28.3% | 9,428 | 18.3% | 6,104 |
Franklin | 41.8% | 938 | 42.3% | 949 | 15.3% | 343 |
Hampden | 50.5% | 7,491 | 34.0% | 5,048 | 15.0% | 2,225 |
Hampshire | 45.7% | 1,967 | 36.7% | 1,579 | 16.9% | 725 |
Middlesex | 52.5% | 29,084 | 26.8% | 14,852 | 20.3% | 11,218 |
Nantucket | 50.1% | 168 | 29.6% | 99 | 20.3% | 68 |
Norfolk | 58.9% | 18,749 | 22.0% | 7,009 | 18.8% | 5,992 |
Plymouth | 70.1% | 23,242 | 19.8% | 6,549 | 10.0% | 3,316 |
Suffolk | 53.5% | 4,792 | 27.6% | 2,471 | 18.2% | 1,628 |
Worcester | 44.8% | 16,562 | 32.1% | 11,856 | 22.8% | 8,421 |
Total | 55.2% | 144,043 | 26.7% | 69,636 | 17.9% | 46,693 |
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Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [119] | Safe D | September 28, 2018 |
Inside Elections [120] | Safe D | September 29, 2017 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [121] | Safe D | September 27, 2017 |
Fox News [122] | Likely D | July 9, 2018 |
CNN [123] | Safe D | July 12, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics [124] | Safe D | May 26, 2018 |
^Highest rating they assert
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Elizabeth Warren (D) | Geoff Diehl (R) | Shiva Ayyadurai (I) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MassINC [125] | October 25–28, 2018 | 502 | ± 4.4% | 54% | 32% | 6% | 3% | 3% |
Suffolk University [126] | October 24–28, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 56% | 34% | 4% | – | 5% |
Western New England University [127] | October 10–27, 2018 | 402 LV | ± 5.0% | 57% | 27% | 7% | – | 8% |
485 RV | ± 4.0% | 54% | 27% | 6% | – | 12% | ||
UMass Lowell [128] | October 1–7, 2018 | 485 LV | ± 5.6% | 56% | 31% | 8% | 3% | 2% |
791 RV | ± 4.4% | 56% | 28% | 9% | 4% | 1% | ||
MassINC [129] | September 17–21, 2018 | 506 | ± 4.4% | 56% | 30% | 5% | 1% | 6% |
Suffolk University [130] | September 13–17, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 54% | 24% | 6% | – | 16% |
Suffolk University [131] | June 8–12, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 55% | 33% | – | – | 11% |
MassINC [132] | May 22–26, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.4% | 54% | 19% | 8% | 1% | 15% |
MassINC [133] | March 16–18, 2018 | 504 | ± 4.4% | 55% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 13% |
MassINC [134] | November 9–12, 2017 | 503 | ± 4.4% | 58% | 32% | – | 3% | 7% |
MassINC [135] | June 19–22, 2017 | 504 | ± 4.4% | 60% | 29% | – | 1% | 8% |
with Beth Lindstrom
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Elizabeth Warren (D) | Beth Lindstrom (R) | Shiva Ayyadurai (I) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Suffolk University [136] | June 8–12, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 56% | 31% | – | – | 13% |
MassINC [132] | May 22–26, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.4% | 55% | 19% | 7% | 2% | 15% |
MassINC [133] | March 16–18, 2018 | 504 | ± 4.4% | 53% | 19% | 9% | 1% | 14% |
MassINC [134] | November 9–12, 2017 | 504 | ± 4.4% | 56% | 33% | – | 3% | 8% |
with John Kingston
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Elizabeth Warren (D) | John Kingston (R) | Shiva Ayyadurai (I) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Suffolk University [137] | June 8–12, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 54% | 30% | – | – | 15% |
MassINC [132] | May 22–26, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.4% | 56% | 19% | 8% | 1% | 14% |
MassINC [133] | March 16–18, 2018 | 504 | ± 4.4% | 53% | 19% | 7% | 2% | 12% |
MassINC [134] | November 9–12, 2017 | 504 | ± 4.4% | 57% | 33% | – | 2% | 7% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Elizabeth Warren (D) | Karyn Polito (R) | Mitt Romney (R) | Richard Tisei (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UMass Amherst [138] | September 15–20, 2016 | ≈450 | ± 4.1% | 40% | 36% | – | – | 5% | 19% |
44% | – | 31% | – | 10% | 15% | ||||
39% | – | – | 32% | 3% | 26% |
with Shiva Ayyadurai running as Republican
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Elizabeth Warren (D) | Shiva Ayyadurai (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MassINC [134] | November 9–12, 2017 | 504 | ± 4.4% | 58% | 27% | 4% | 10% |
MassINC [135] | June 19–22, 2017 | 504 | ± 4.4% | 61% | 25% | 2% | 9% |
with Curt Schilling
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Elizabeth Warren (D) | Curt Schilling (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Suffolk University [139] | October 24–26, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 58% | 24% | 2% | 16% |
UMass Amherst [138] | September 15–20, 2016 | ≈450 | ± 4.1% | 47% | 28% | 9% | 16% |
MassINC [140] | September 7–10, 2016 | 506 | ± 4.4% | 54% | 29% | 3% | 15% |
with William Weld
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Elizabeth Warren (D) | William Weld (L) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UMass Amherst [138] | September 15–20, 2016 | ≈450 | ± 4.1% | 40% | 37% | 8% | 16% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Elizabeth Warren (incumbent) | 1,633,371 | 60.34% | +6.60% | |
Republican | Geoff Diehl | 979,210 | 36.17% | −10.02% | |
Independent | Shiva Ayyadurai | 91,710 | 3.39% | N/A | |
Write-in | 2,799 | 0.10% | N/A | ||
Total votes | 2,707,090 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic hold |
By county | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
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Warren won all of the state’s congressional districts. [142]
District | Warren | Diehl | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 59% | 37% | Richard Neal |
2nd | 57% | 39% | Jim McGovern |
3rd | 57% | 39% | Niki Tsongas (115th Congress) |
Lori Trahan (116th Congress) | |||
4th | 58% | 38% | Joe Kennedy III |
5th | 69% | 28% | Katherine Clark |
6th | 55% | 41% | Seth Moulton |
7th | 84% | 13% | Michael Capuano (115th Congress) |
Ayanna Pressley (116th Congress) | |||
8th | 58% | 39% | Stephen Lynch |
9th | 51% | 46% | Bill Keating |
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)Official campaign websites